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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital

The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

Carlota Perez
Honorary Research Fellow, SPRU Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, INTECH, Maastricht, The Netherlands Visiting Scholar 2002, Cambridge University, UK International Consultant and Lecturer on change strategies and technology policy, Eureka A.C., Caracas, Venezuela

Edward Elgar
Cheltenham, UK Northampton, MA, USA.

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Contents
List of tables List of figures Preface Chris Freeman Acknowledgments Introduction: An Interpretation PART I TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AS SUCCESSIVE GREAT SURGES OF DEVELOPMENT 3 8 22 36 47 60 vii viii ix xiii xvii

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

The Turbulent Ending of the Twentieth Century Technological Revolutions and Techno-Economic Paradigms The Social Shaping of Technological Revolutions The Propagation of Paradigms: Times of Installation, Times of Deployment The Four Basic Phases of Each Surge of Development Uneven Development and Time-Lags in Diffusion TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS AND THE CHANGING BEHAVIOR OF FINANCIAL CAPITAL

PART II

7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

Financial Capital and Production Capital Maturity: Financial Capital Planting the Seeds of Turbulence at the End of the Previous Surge Irruption: The Love Affair of Financial Capital with the Technological Revolution Frenzy: Self-Sufficient Financial Capital Governing the Casino The Turning Point: Rethinking, Regulation and Changeover Synergy: Supporting the Expansion of the Paradigm across the Productive Structure The Changing Nature of Financial and Institutional Innovations

71 81 90 99 114 127 138

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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Contents

PART III

THE RECURRING SEQUENCE, ITS CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS 151 159 167 173 183

14. 15.

The Sequence and its Driving Forces The Implications for Theory and Policy

Epilogue: The World at the Turning Point Bibliography Index

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List of Tables
2.1 2.2 2.3 8.1 13.1 13.2 Five successive technological revolutions, 1770s to 2000s The industries and infrastructures of each technological revolution A different techno-economic paradigm for each technological revolution; 1770 to 2000s Fluctuations in UK foreign investment (at current prices) as percentage of total net capital formation, 18551914 A tentative typology of financial innovations The shifting behavior of financial capital from phase to phase of each surge 11 14 18 84 139 141

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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital

List of Figures
2.1 3.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 The double nature of technological revolutions The life cycle of a technological revolution Two different periods in each great surge Steel displacing iron as the main engineering material from the second to the third surge Decoupling of the system: the differing performance of the high-tech sector and the rest of the economy in the USA, 198996 Oil and automobile industries replacing steel as engines of growth from the third to the fourth surge Recurring phases of each great surge in the core countries Approximate dates of the installation and deployment periods of each great surge of development The geographic outspreading of technologies as they mature The recurring sequence in the relationship between financial capital (FK) and production capital (PK) Five successive surges, recurrent parallel periods and major financial crises The recurrence of loan fever and default: the Latin American case The diverging growth of the New York Stock Market and US GDP, 197199 The rise and fall of the NASDAQ bubble, 19712001 Development by surges: the elements of the model and their recurring changes The dynamics of the system: three spheres of change in constant reciprocal action Paradigm shift and political cleavage 9 30 37 38

40 45 48 57 64 74 78 87 112 119 152 156 164

4.4 5.1 5.2 6.1 7.1 7.2 8.1 10.1 11.1 14.1 14.2 15.1

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