Summary

Unemployment and Jobs Update, Milton Keynes, February, 2013 Headlines: Unemployment (Claimant count) rose to 5,989 in Milton Keynes (3.6% of the working population) in February 2013 from 5,475 (3.3%) in January 2013, an increase of 514 claimants. The February 2013 rate of 3.6% compares to a rate of 4.2% in February 2012. The MK unemployment rate of 3.6% was 0.3% lower than the UK rate, but higher than the South East England rate of 2.6% and the South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership area rate of 3.3%. The impact of unemployment among young people (aged 24 years of age and under) remains an issue regionally and nationally. Young people made up 22% of the unemployed in MK in February 2013 (an increase of 1.8% on the January 2013 proportion), compared to 25.7% in the South East region and 27.2% in the UK. Unemployment rates for young people were 2.7% and 6.8% for age groups 16 -19 and 20-24 years of age respectively. Long-term unemployment (claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) for one year and over) increased to 1,445 in February 2013, from 1,430 in January 2013. Those claiming Job Seekers Allowance for one year and over made up 24.3% of the claimant count in MK in February 2013, an increase in absolute terms of 25 claimants from January 2013. Those claiming JSA for over 6 months made up 37% of the 5,989 unemployed job seekers in MK, in February 2013, a rate of 1.3%. Over one quarter of job seekers (28.1%) in February 2013 were looking for jobs in Elementary occupations, signifying low skill levels. Jobcentre Plus is working on a new system of reporting job vacancies. On balance, job vacancy levels in MK remained high throughout 2012, signifying a relatively high level of economic activity, but there appears to have been a loss of jobs in the first quarter of 2013 particularly due to seasonal factors causing unemployment to rise. . The economic stability of the Euro zone area remains in the balance as the Cyprian banking crisis appears to be settling down. A medium term solution to the Euro zone financial crisis and domestic actions on budget deficit reduction and economic growth will have positive implications for the level of economic activity in the whole economy and indeed for the MK economy. On the whole uncertainty remains in the national and global economies. Unemployment remains a concern but Milton Keynes Council is committed to assisting in growing the Milton Keynes economy, creating jobs and ensuring that Milton Keynes is always open for business.

1. Unemployment Rate (Claimant Count) Unemployment claimant count was 5,989 job seekers in February 2013 compared to 5,475 in January 2013, thus, 514 more job seekers. The unemployment rate in Milton Keynes went up to 3.6% in February 2013 from 3.3% in January 2013. The MK unemployment rate of 3.6% was 0.3% lower than the UK rate. The South East England region rate was 2.6% and the rate for the South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership area (SEMLEP) was 3.3% The MK rate was 1% higher than the South East rate and 0.3% higher than the SEMLEP rate. In neighbouring local authority areas, the unemployment rates in February 2013 were: 4.2% in Northampton, 4.5% in Luton, 5.7% in Bedford, 3.2% in Central Bedfordshire, 1.9% in Aylesbury Vale and 2% in Buckinghamshire. Analysis of unemployment by Ward in February 2013 shows high levels in Woughton 7.6%, Eaton Manor 7.3%, Campbell Park 6.5%, Wolverton 5.6%, Bletchley and Fenny Stratford 4.7%, Bradwell 5.1%, Denbigh - 5%, Stantonbury 4.6% and Stony Stratford 4%. Indeed, nine wards in MK have unemployment rates which are above the MK average of 3.6%. In all these wards, the majority of the claimants have worked in, and or are looking for jobs in Elementary occupations, indicating that low skills levels are an issue. Long Term Unemployment

The unemployment rate for those who had been unemployed for longer than one year stood at 0.9% of the working age population, (1,455), and 24.3% of the claimant count in MK in February 2013, an absolute increase of 25 claimants on the January 2013 figure. The longer a job seeker is out of work, the more difficult it is to find suitable employment as they will have to compete for jobs with new entrants in to labour market. Those claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) for over 6 months made up 37% of the unemployed claimants in MK, in February 2013, a decrease of 2.5% on the January 2013 proportion and a rate of 1.3% of the working age population.
Young people (aged 24 and under) made up 22% of those claiming JSA in MK in January 2013, (an increase of 1.8% on the January 2013 population), compared to 25.7% in the South East England region and 27.2% in the UK. A proportion of

2.7% (160 young people) was claiming JSA for over 12 months in February 2013, a decrease of 0.2% on the January 2013 proportion. Young people who had been unemployed and claiming JSA for over 6 months in February 2013 made up 4.7% (285) of the claimant count, a 0.5% decrease on the January 2013 proportion. Those aged 25 and over and claiming JSA for over one year made up 21.6% (1,295) of all JSA claimants in MK in February 2013, a 1.6% decrease on the January 2013 proportion but an increase in absolute terms of 25 claimants. Claimants aged 25 and over, claiming for over 18 months made 14.6% of the claimant count (870) in February 2013, a 0.6% decrease on the January 2013

proportion but an absolute increase of 40 claimants. Those aged 25 and over and claiming for over 2 years made 9.3% of the claimant count (555 claimants). Claimants aged 50 and over and claiming JSA for over 6 months made up 8.5% (500 claimants) of the claimant count in MK in February 2013, a decrease of 0.6% on the January 2013 proportion and an absolute increase of 5 claimants. Characteristics of the unemployed: 2. Age and gender profile Young people aged 20 24 made a significant proportion of the claimants, 16.5% of the claimant count (985) in February 2013 compared to 825 claimants in January 2013, an increase of 160 claimants. Those aged 25-29 made the second largest group of claimants 750 (12.5%). Those under 20 years old also made a significant proportion, 5.6% (335) of all the claimant count unemployment in February 2013, a 0.6% increase on the January 2013 proportion. Young people, aged up to 24 years made up under one-quarter (22%) of all claimant count unemployment in February 2013 (an increase of 1.8% on the January 2013 proportion) compared to 25.7% in the South East and 27.2% in the UK. Analysis of unemployment by age group as a percentage of the working age population in that age group also shows unemployment to be highest in the 20-24 age group in February 2013, at 6.8%, an increase of 1.1% on the January 2013 proportion. Unemployment rates for young people were 2.7% and 6.8% for age groups 16 -19 and 20-24 years of age respectively. In terms of gender, males made up 64.5% of the claimants and females made up 35.5% of the claimants in February 2013, a decrease of 1.2% on the January 2013 female proportion. NEET

The number of young people (16-19 year olds) in Milton Keynes who were not in education, employment or training (NEET) in February 2013 was 440, 5% of the Year 12 to Year 14 cohort compared to 443 (5%) in January 2013 and, 536 (5.1%) in February 2012. The number of young people in learning was 7,449 in February 2013, 82.6% of the cohort. The cohort count includes all young people in this age group resident in MK, and excludes those who are educated in MK but live in other local authority areas. 3. Ethnicity Ethnicity figures lag by a month. In January 2013, White people made up the majority of the claimant count, 4,166 (76%) reflecting the MK population distribution profile. Ethnic Minority Groups (EMGs) made up 20.3% of the unemployment claimant count in January 2013, a 1.1% decrease on the December 2012 proportion. Among the EMGs, Black Africans made a significant proportion of the claimants (625), 56.1% of all EMG claimants and

11.4% of all claimants in January 2013, a 3.4% increase on the December 2012 proportion. Those whose ethnicity was not known made 3.7% of the claimants. 4. Sought after Occupation There was little or no change in the proportions and choices of occupations which job seekers (5,989) would like to join. In February 2013, job seekers were looking for work in the following occupations and in proportions indicated:
Sales & Customer Service 30.1% Elementary jobs 28.1%

Admin & Secretarial 9.2% Process, Plant, & Machinery 6.6% Skills Trades 6.6% Personal Service 4.6% Assoc Professional & Technical 4.6% Manager & Snr Officials 4.1% NB. Elementary (low skilled) occupations dominate the occupational aspirations of job seekers

5. Previous/ Usual Occupation of Job Seeker

The previous occupations of job seekers seem to match their sought after occupations as the proportions below show: Sales and Customer Service 29% . Elementary jobs 28.3% Admin and Secretarial 9.9% Skills Trades 6.7% Assoc Professional & Tech Occupations 4.5% Process, Plant and Machinery 6.1% Personal Services 5% Managers and Snr Officials 4.3%

6. Job Vacancies Statistics on Jobcentre Plus vacancies, that is, job vacancies notified by employers to Jobcentre Plus, are collected from the Jobcentre Plus administrative system. However, they are not comprehensive since many job vacancies are filled without reference to Jobcentre Plus. As a result Jobcentre Plus stopped publishing the job vacancy statistics in November 2012 with a view to introducing a more comprehensive job vacancy dataset. 7. Conclusion Uncertainties remain in the national economy in the second quarter of 2013. The increase in unemployment in Milton Keynes in February 2013 can be attributed to seasonal factors. Ephraidge Rinomhota Economic Development Team
PTO for supporting Tables and Charts:

Tables and Charts

Unemployment Rate, Milton Keynes, Feruary 2013
Wards Bletchley & Fenny Stratford Bradwell Campbell Park Danesborough Denbigh Eaton Manor Emerson Valley Furzton Hanslope Park Linford North Linford South Loughton Middleton Newport Pagnell North Newport Pagnell South Olney Sherington Stantonbury Stony Stratford Walton Park Whaddon Wolverton Woughton Milton Keynes Total Claimants Jan-13 Feb-13 354 377 399 452 599 695 48 50 222 257 370 390 224 260 138 152 54 63 148 165 181 208 229 250 238 270 96 95 99 98 61 68 30 27 282 280 272 299 218 224 173 193 523 543 517 573 5,475 5,989 Rate (%) Feb-13 4.7 5.1 6.5 1.7 5.0 7.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.8 3.3 2.1 2.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 4.6 3.9 2.3 3.6 5.6 7.6 3.6

Duration of Unemployment - Milton Keynes Less than 1 Year More than 1 Year Claimants Rate Claimants Rate Jan-13 4,035 2.5 1,430 0.9 Feb-13 4,540 2.8 1,455 0.9 County Comparisons Milton Keynes Buckinghamshire Northamptonshire Aylesbury Vale Oxfordshire Bedfordshire Hertfordshire West Berkshire Windsor & Maidenhead Wokingham
Source: NOMIS

Regional Comparisons Milton Keynes Council South East UK Northampton Luton Wellingborough Slough
Reading

Jan-13 3.3 2.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 3.7 3.4

Feb-13 3.6 2.6 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.7 3.8 3.4

Feb-13 3.6 2.0 3.6 1.9 1.7 8.5 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.4

Unemployment Claimant Rates, SEMLEP February 2013

Area Male Female Total Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Milton Keynes Aylesbury Vale Cherwell Bedford Central Bedfordshire Luton Corby Daventry Kettering Northampton South Northamptonshire South East Midlands Source: NOMIS 3,862 1,419 985 2,854 2,673 3,828 1,425 829 1,543 3,883 469 23,770 4.7 2.5 2.1 5.7 3.2 5.7 7.1 3.3 5.2 5.5 1.8 4.3 2,127 698 529 1,509 1,547 2,195 748 435 812 2,051 266 12,917 2.5 1.2 1.2 3.0 1.9 3.4 3.7 1.8 2.7 2.9 1.0 2.3 5,989 2,117 1,514 4,363 4,220 6,023 2,173 1,264 2,355 5,934 735 36,687 3.6 1.9 1.6 4.3 2.5 4.5 5.4 2.5 3.9 4.2 1.4 3.3

The Characteristics of People Claiming Job Seekers Allowance, MK Age Distribution of Claimants, February 2013

1,600
F eb-12 F eb-13

1,200
Claimants

800 400 0
Under 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60 and over

Age
Source: NOMIS

Unemployment in MK, February 2013 as a Percentage of Working Age Population for each Age Group.
Age Group 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
Source: NOMIS & MKC

Unemployed Number 335 985 820 750 700 675 635 540 435 115

Total Population Number 12,500 14,590 16,100 16,880 19,240 19,450 17,530 15,520 13,930 12,450

Unemployment Rate % 2.7 6.8 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.1 0.9

Unemployment by Ethnicity, MK, January 2013

600
J an-12 J an-13

400
Claimants

200

0
Pakistani Other Black Mixed Irish Indian Caribbean Other Bangladeshi Other Asian Chinese or Other African

Age

Source: NOMIS

Sought Occupation of Job Seekers, MK, February 2013

Male Claim ants Unknow n 120 Managers and Senior Officials 180 Professional 90 Associate Professional and Technical 215 Adm inistrative and Secretarial 235 Skilled Trades 380 Personal Service 55 Sales and Custom er Service 915 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 365 Elem entary 1,310 Fem ale %Claim ants 3.1 115 4.7 65 2.3 45 5.6 55 6.1 320 9.8 15 1.4 220 23.7 885 9.4 30 33.9 370 Total %Claim ants 5.4 235 3.1 245 2.1 135 2.6 275 15.1 550 0.7 395 10.4 275 41.7 1,800 1.4 395 17.5 1,680 % 3.9 4.1 2.3 4.6 9.2 6.6 4.6 30.1 6.6 28.1

Source: NOMIS

Previous Occupation of Job Seekers, MK, February 2013

Male Claim ants Unknow n 120 Managers and Senior Officials 190 Professional 90 Associate Professional and Technical 210 Adm inistrative and Secretarial 265 Skilled Trades 380 Personal Service 60 Sales and Custom er Service 900 Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 335 Elem entary 1,305 Fem ale %Claim ants 3.1 115 4.9 65 2.3 45 5.4 60 6.9 330 9.9 20 1.6 240 23.3 830 8.7 30 33.9 390 Total %Claim ants 5.4 235 3.1 255 2.1 135 2.8 270 15.5 590 0.9 400 11.3 300 39.1 1,735 1.4 365 18.4 1,695 % 3.9 4.3 2.3 4.5 9.9 6.7 5.0 29.0 6.1 28.3

Source: NOMIS

Unemployment, MK, South East and UK, February 2003 to February 2013
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0
UK MK SE

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13

Date
Source: NOMIS

Unemployment Rates by Gender, MK,SE and UK, August 2011 to February 2013
6.0 5.0 4.0
%

Milton Keynes Rate Milton Keynes Male Milton Keynes Female South East Rate South East Male South East Female UK Rate UK Male UK Female

3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Au g11 O ct -1 1 De c11 Ju n12 Au g12 O ct -1 2 De c12 Fe b12 Ap r- 1 2 Fe b13

Source: NOMIS

Ephraidge Rinomhota Economic Development Team (Milton Keynes Council 05/04/13)