Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedbac k is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
India's Industrial Production increased to 0.6 percent in February. US Core Retail Sales declined by 0.4 percent in the month of March. European Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in February. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 72.3-mark in April. US Core Retail Sales declined by 0.4 percent in March as against a rise of 1 percent in February. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.6 percent in last month from rise of 0.7 percent in February. Retail Sales dropped by 0.4 percent in March as compared to rise of 1 percent a month ago. Core PPI remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in the month of March. Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment declined by 6.3 points to 72.3-mark in April with respect to rise of 78.6-level in March. Business Inventories was at 0.1 percent in February as against a increase of 0.9 percent in prior month. India's Industrial Production increased to 0.6 percent in February as against a rise of 2.4 percent in January. Manufacturing Output grew at slow pace of 2.2 percent in February from earlier increase of 2.7 percent a month ago. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 10.39 percent in March as compared to rise of 10.91 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from major global central bankers exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 82.14 and closed at 82.406 on Friday. On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent. The currency appreciated on account of countrys industrial production and CPI data which came on a favorable note as against the expectations. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with selling dollars from exporters and banks also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of outflow of foreign funds and dollar demand from importers. The currency touched a high of 54.25 in the last week and closed at 54.51 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.42.0 crores ($7.13 million) as on 12th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.55,580.40 crores ($10,302.90 million) till 12th April 2013. UKs Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 0.4 percent in February as against a rise of 0.2 percent a month earlier.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.51 Prev day -0.4

as on 12 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.5 m-o-m -0.9 y-o-y -6.0

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3111

0.1

0.9

0.3

-0.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.41

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

3.7

5528.6

-1.2

-0.4

-5.9

6.2

SENSEX

18242.6

-1.6

-1.1

-6.1

-0.3

DJIA

14865.1

0.0

2.1

2.4

14.5

S&P

1588.9

-0.3

2.3

2.3

14.5

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, favorable industrial production from Euro Zone, German and French supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of decline in investors confidence. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.2 percent in March as against a rise of 0.1 percent in February. European Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.6 percent a month ago. The Euro touched a high of 1.3138 in the last week and closed at 1.3111 against dollar on Friday. Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at slow pace of 7.7 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a rise of 7.9 percent in Q4 of 2012. Fixed Asset Investment was at 20.9 percent in March from 21.2 percent a month ago. Industrial Production grew at slow pace of 8.9 percent in March as compared to rise of 9.9 percent in January. Retail Sales rose by 12.6 percent in last month with respect to increase of 12.3 percent in January.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices decreased around 6.5 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the safe haven from investors. Further, decline in jobless claims data from the US also exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX coupled with cut in global economic growth from International Monetary Fund (IMF). The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1,477.0/oz and closed at $1478.35/oz in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 3.8 percent in prior week and closed at Rs.28180/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs.28,100/10 gms in the last week. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 3.88 percent to 1,158.56 tonnes as on 12th April 2013 from previous level of 1,205.31 tonnes as on 5th April 2013. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1478.4 Prev. day -5.3 as on 12 April, 2013 WoW -6.5 MoM -7.1 YoY -11.7

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

28750.0

-1.2

-1.1

-2.0

0.9

1535.5

-1.9

-2.1

-3.8

-8.0

$/oz

1501.0

-4.0

-4.5

-6.5

-10.6

Rs /10 gms

28180.0

-3.4

-3.8

-4.0

-2.0

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 25.9 52380.0 Prev day -6.3 -0.6

as on 12 April, 2013 WoW -5.3 0.8 MoM -10.0 -4.1 YoY -19.9 -7.0

Silver
Taking cues from decline in gold prices along with downside in the base metals pack, Spot silver prices fell by 5.3 percent in the previous week. However, weakness in the DX coupled with favourable economic data from Euro Zone and US cushioned sharp fall in the prices. The white metal prices touched a weekly low of $25.74/oz and closed at $25.85/oz in last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 4 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.49,430/kg after on Friday after touching a low of Rs.49,000/kg in the last week. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, remained unchanged at 10,497.59 tonnes as on 12th April 2013.

$/oz $/ oz

2740.0 2632.2

-0.6 -4.9

1.6 -3.2

-5.2 -8.7

-12.9 -19.0

Rs / kg

49430.0

-4.3

-4.0

-8.8

-13.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative side on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, worries among the investors that other European nations may have to sell their gold holdings may exert downside pressure. However, Chinas GDP grew at a slower pace at 7.7 percent in first quarter of 2013 may prevent further sharp decline in the prices. Depreciation in Indian Rupee will cushion sharp fall on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 15, 2013 Support 1430/1420 27650/27400 24.40/24.0 48400/47700 Resistance 1451/1459 28100/28250 24.90/25.20 49300/49800
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 1.5 percent in the last week taking cues from cut in the demand forecast from IEA for the current year coupled with rise in Saudi Arabias crude oil production. Additionally, estimates of drop in the global economic growth from IMF exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the oil prices was cushioned on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets coupled with decline in US jobless claims data. Weakness in the DX also prevented sharp fall in the prices. Crude oil prices touched a weekly low of $90.27/bbl and closed at $91.29/bbl in last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 1.5 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4984/bbl on Friday after touching a low of Rs.4,941/bbl in the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 91.2 101.7 91.3 Prev. day -2.4 -2.9 -2.4 WoW -1.6 -3.2 -1.5 as on 12 April, 2013 MoM -2.4 -7.9 -2.3 YoY -12.0 -16.1 -11.9

$/bbl

103.1

-1.1

-1.0

-6.1

-15.3

Rs/bbl

4984.0

-2.0

-2.0

-1.5

-5.9
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.26 231.3

(% change)

as on 12 April, 2013

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices increased around 2.9 percent on the back of more than expected decline in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of cool winter weather conditions during the coming weekend also supported an upside in the prices. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the prices. Gas prices touched a high of $4.264/mmbtu in the last week and closed at $4.26/mmbtu in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained by 2.4 percent and closed at Rs.231.30/mmbtu on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.232.40/mmbtu. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, Chinas GDP grew at slow pace which led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel will add downside pressure on the crude prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in the oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 15, 2013 Support 88.80/88.0 4930/4890 Resistance 90.40/91.30 5020/5070

Prev. day 2.2 2.9

WoW 2.92 2.44

MoM 17.19 17.17

YoY 115.04 125.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

The base metals pack traded on a negative note, apart from Copper in the last week on the back of cut in the global economic growth forecast by the IMF. Further, decline in US retail sales and consumer sentiments data coupled with mixed LME inventories also exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with favourable economic data from China, Euro Zone and US. Weakness in the DX also prevented sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on the prices.

as on 12 April, 2013 WoW 0.1 MoM -5.3 YoY -9.5

Last 7428.8

Prev. day -2.2

$/tonne

Rs/kg

404.7

-1.8

-0.4

-4.5

-4.0

$/tonne

1855.3

-2.1

-1.8

-5.6

-11.9

Rs /kg

100.3

-1.7

-2.5

-4.3

-6.3

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased marginally by 0.1 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, favourable economic data from China and positive industrial production data from Euro Zone supported an upside in the prices However, rise in LME inventories by 2.4 percent, decline in US retail sales and consumer sentiments along with cut in global economic growth forecast capped sharp gains in the prices. The red metal a weekly high of $7,645.25/tonne and closed at $7428.75/tonne in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices dropped by 0.4 as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 404.65/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs.402.90/kg in the last week. Copper Inventories LME copper inventories gained around 2.42 percent in the last week and stood at 593,650 tonnes as on 12th April, 2013 as against 579,600 tonnes as on 5th April, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 5.6 percent and stood at 228,290 tonnes for the week ending on 12th April, 2013. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, Chinas GDP grew at a slower pace at 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2013 may add downside pressure. Additionally, decline in Chinas Industrial production, fall in Chinas Fixed Asset Investment along with the expectation of unfavourable economic data from US may act as a negative factor. On MCX, Depreciation in the Indian rupee may prevent sharp fall in the prices. Technical Outlook valid for April 15, 2013
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 402/399 100/99 110/109 99.50/98.80 853/845 Resistance 407/411 101.80/102.80 112/113 101.0/101.80 870/878

$/tonne

15856.0

-2.2

-1.1

-6.4

-15.0

Rs /kg

865.5

-1.8

-1.6

-5.4

-9.6

$/tonne

2043.5

-2.0

-0.2

-8.0

-2.1

Rs /kg

111.0

-1.5

-0.8

-7.3

3.3

$/tonne

1869.8

-1.8

-1.0

-4.5

-8.2

Rs /kg

100.9

-1.5

-1.7

-3.7

-3.4

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 12 April 593,650 5,194,750 169,386 1,136,050 259,375
th

11 April 590,175 5,192,100 168,378 1,134,825 260,175

th

Actual Change 3,475 2,650 1,008 1,225 -800

(%) Change 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Country Japan China China China China Japan US US Time (IST) 6:00am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 11:45am 6:00pm 6:30pm Actual 7.7% 20.9% 8.9% Forecast 8.0% 21.3% 10.1% 7.2 41.3B Previous 7.9% 21.2% 9.9% 9.2 25.7B Impact High High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

www.angelcommodities.com