Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits declined to 0.90 million in the last month. German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 36.3-mark in current month. UKs CPI remained unchanged at 2.8 percent in the month of March. European ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 24.9-level in April. Asian markets are trading higher on the back of rise in housing starts data from US and as IMF raised its forecast for Japanese economic growth. US Building Permits declined to 0.90 million in March as against a rise of 0.94 million in February. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.1 percent in March from rise of 0.2 percent in February. CPI dropped to 0.2 percent in last month as compared to rise of 0.7 percent in February. Housing Starts grew by 1.04 million in March with respect to rise of 0.97 million a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate was at 78.5 percent in March when compared to 79.6 percent in earlier month. Industrial Production grew at slower at pace of 0.4 percent in March from rise of 0.7 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5689.0 18744.9 14756.78 1574.6 15533.0 1922.2 58497.8 13221.4 88.72 1386.80 2362.20 7319.25 102.09 Prev. day 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.4 -0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.0

as on April 16, 2013 WoW 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.6 -0.1 -5.8 -11.0 -15.2 -4.1 0.6 MoM -1.0 -1.4 2.1 0.9 -0.9 -1.9 4.4 5.4 -3.7 -13.7 -18.0 -6.7 0.5 YoY 7.5 2.5 14.2 15.0 7.8 -1.5 -6.7 39.6 -13.8 -15.9 -24.7 -8.9 -0.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the later part of the day which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable housing starts data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on an upbeat note which also acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.78 and closed at 81.82 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.82 53.96 54.25 54.25 Prev. day -0.8 1.1 -0.81 -0.85 WoW -0.7 0.9 -0.92 -0.93

as on April 16, 2013 MoM -0.9 1.0 0.11 0.10 YoY 3.0 -4.4 4.72 4.72

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of expectations that downside in global commodities will ease the pressure on the countrys current account deficit. Additionally, forecast for cut in the key rates by rd the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on 3 May 2013 also support an upside in the currency. Further, positive whole prices index (WPI) data coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 53.96 and closed at 53.96 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.286.30 crores ($51.81 million) as on 16th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55,336.0 crores ($10,258.30 million) till 16 April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks in next monetary policy meeting will also support an upside in the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for April 17, 2013 Support 54.00/53.90 Resistance 54.30/54.45

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi said that ECB expects euro zone economy to recover steadily in the second half of this year. However, unfavorable economic data from Euro zone capped sharp gains in the currency. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 1.09 billion Euros in February as against a deficit of 1.61 billion Euros a month ago. German Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment declined by 12.2 points to 36.3-mark in April with respect to rise of 48.5-level in March. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.7 percent in the month of March. Core CPI increased by 1.5 percent in March from earlier rise of 1.3 percent a month ago. European ZEW Economic Sentiment fell by 8.5 points to 24.9-level in April as compared to rise of 33.4-mark a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3201 and closed at 1.3176 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, sharp gains in the currency will be capped on the back of unfavorable economic data from yesterdays trading session. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 70.90/70.60 71.35/71.60 valid for April 17, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3176 71.03 71.1 71.1 Prev. day 1.1 0.1 -0.50 -0.50

as on April 16, 2013 WoW 0.7 0.1 -0.42 -0.41 MoM 2.3 -1.5 0.74 0.48 YoY 0.3 -5.2 5.45 5.44

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.536 83.175 83.02 Prev. day 0.50 -0.316 -0.94

as on April 16, 2013

WoW 0.3 -0.54 -0.84

MoM 1.7 1.87 1.06

YoY -3.4 1.27 1.25

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.50 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. However, unfavorable economic data from UK capped sharp upside in the sterling pound. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.8 percent in the month of March. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input declined by 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 2.8 percent in February. Retail Price Index (RPI) rose by 3.3 percent in last month from earlier increase of 3.2 percent in February. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5379 and closed at 1.536 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of expectation of weak economic data from the country. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may cushion sharp fall in the currency. Investors will keep an eye on Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting minutes. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 17, 2013 Support 82.70/82.40 Resistance 83.30/83.70

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.03

-0.93

-0.85

1.08

1.25

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.8 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 98.15 and closed at 97.52 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable consumer confidence data. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 17, 2013 Support 55.10/54.70 Resistance 55.80/56.20
Source: Telequote

as on April 16, 2013 Last 97.52 0.5546 55.50 55.50 Prev day 0.8 -1.58 -0.88 -0.88 WoW -1.5 0.58 0.14 0.15 MoM 2.5 -2.20 -1.70 -1.70 YoY 21.3 -13.72 -13.44 -13.43

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 17, 2013

Indicator FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Rate German 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Beige Book Country US US UK UK UK Europe US US US US Time (IST) 12:30am 12:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm Tentative 7:00pm 8:00pm 9:30pm 11:30pm Actual Forecast 0.0K 0-0-9 7.8% Previous -1.5K 0-0-9 7.8% 1.36/1.6 0.3M Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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