Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

Overview

International Commodities
US Building Permits declined to 0.90 million in the last month. German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 36.3-mark in current month. UKs CPI remained unchanged at 2.8 percent in the month of March. European ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped to 24.9-level in April. IMF cuts the global economic growth forecast to 3.3 percent for 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 53.96 Prev day 1.1

as on 16 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.9 m-o-m 1.0 y-o-y -4.4

Asian markets are trading higher on the back of rise in housing starts data from US and as IMF raised its forecast for Japanese economic growth. US Building Permits declined to 0.90 million in March as against a rise of 0.94 million in February. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.1 percent in March from rise of 0.2 percent in February. CPI dropped to 0.2 percent in last month as compared to rise of 0.7 percent in February. Housing Starts grew by 1.04 million in March with respect to rise of 0.97 million a month ago. Capacity Utilization Rate was at 78.5 percent in March when compared to 79.6 percent in earlier month. Industrial Production grew at slower at pace of 0.4 percent in March from rise of 0.7 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.8 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the later part of the day which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable housing starts data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on an upbeat note which also acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.78 and closed at 81.82 on Tuesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of expectations that downside in global commodities will ease the pressure on the countrys current account deficit. Additionally, forecast for cut in the key rates by rd the central banks in the monetary policy to be announced on 3 May 2013 also support an upside in the currency. Further, positive whole prices index (WPI) data coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments also acted as a negative factor for Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 53.96 and closed at 53.96 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.286.30 crores th ($51.81 million) as on 16 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55,336.0 crores ($10,258.30 million) till 16 April 2013. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global economy is expected to grow at 3.3 percent in 2013 from previous estimates of 3.5 percent in January. The agency has also lowered its expectations for next year to 4 percent from 4.1 percent. US economic growth is also expected to grow at slow pace of 1.2 percent in 2013 and kept unchanged at 2.2 percent for 2014.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3176

1.1

0.7

2.3

0.3

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.82

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

3.0

5689.0

2.2

3.5

-1.0

7.5

SENSEX

18744.9

2.1

2.8

-1.4

2.5

DJIA

14756.8

1.1

0.6

2.1

14.2

S&P

1574.6

1.4

0.4

0.9

15.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi said that ECB expects euro zone economy to recover steadily in the second half of this year. However, unfavorable economic data from Euro zone capped sharp gains in the currency. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 1.09 billion Euros in February as against a deficit of 1.61 billion Euros a month ago. German Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment declined by 12.2 points to 36.3-mark in April with respect to rise of 48.5-level in March. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.7 percent in the month of March. Core CPI increased by 1.5 percent in March from earlier rise of 1.3 percent a month ago. European ZEW Economic Sentiment fell by 8.5 points to 24.9-level in April as compared to rise of 33.4-mark a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3201 and closed at 1.3176 against dollar on Tuesday. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.8 percent in the month of March. Retail Price Index (RPI) rose by 3.3 percent in last month from earlier increase of 3.2 percent in February. www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased by 1.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in DX coupled with mixed global market sentiments. However, worries among the investors that central banks from Europe may sell gold along with rise in worries over global economic growth capped sharp gains in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1336.04/oz and closed at $1367.8/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session and closed at Rs.25766/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 25270/10 gms on Tuesday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp upside in the prices. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1367.8 25700.0 Prev. day 1.1 -2.7 as on 16 April, 2013 WoW -13.7 -12.1 MoM -15.2 -13.2 YoY -17.2 -9.5

1380.0

-1.1

-12.5

-14.3

-16.5

$/oz

1386.8

1.9

-11.0

-13.7

-15.9

Rs /10 gms

25766.0

0.5

-13.1

-13.7

-9.8

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with upside in the base metals pack, Spot silver prices increased by 3.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, weakness in DX coupled with rise in Housing starts data from US supported prices. However, weak economic data from Europe coupled with unfavourable US building permits data capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $23.93/oz and closed at $23.4/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 0.4 percent on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 44195/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 42753/kg on Tuesday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.4 46500.0 Prev day 3.5 -1.3

Source: Reuters

as on 16 April, 2013 WoW -16.3 -11.3 MoM -19.1 -15.4 YoY -25.7 -17.1

$/oz $/ oz

2347.0 2362.2

-0.3 1.1

-13.9 -15.2

-18.6 -18.0

-25.1 -24.7

Rs / kg

44195.0

-0.4

-15.3

-19.2

-21.0

Source: Reuters

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative side on the back of ease in US inflation coupled with weak economic data from Europe. Further, worries among the investors that other European nations may have to sell their gold holdings may exert downside pressure. However, weakness in DX may cushion sharp decline in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee may add downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 17, 2013 Support 1366/1358 25500/25350 23.30/23.05 43700/43300 Resistance 1390/1398 25950/26100 23.70/23.95 44500/44900

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices traded on a flat note in yesterdays trading session and rose marginally taking cues from unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories from API. Further, favorable housing starts data from US coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also supported an upside in oil prices. Weakness in the DX also acted as a positive factor for the crude prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of unfavorable economic sentiments from Euro Zone along with cut in the global economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $88.96/bbl and closed at $88.72/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices fell by 1 percent as a result of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,794/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.4747/bbl on Tuesday. API Inventories Data As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined by 6.7 million barrels to th 384.09 million barrels for the week ending on 12 April 2013. Gasoline inventories rose by 253,000 barrels to 222.56 million barrels and whereas distillate inventories gained by 1.3 million barrels to 115.38 million barrels for the same week. EIA Inventories Forecast The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is th expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending on 12 April 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 0.5 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to drop by 0.5 million barrels for the same period. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories from API. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the crude oil prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of expectations for rise in US crude oil inventories along with cut in the global economic growth forecast by the IMF. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 17, 2013 Support 88.30/87.50 4750/4710 Resistance 90.00/91.00 4840/4890
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 88.7 99.0 88.7 Prev. day 0.0 -1.4 0.0 WoW -5.8 -5.9 -5.8

as on 16 April, 2013 MoM -4.0 -8.8 -3.7 YoY -13.8 -16.5 -13.8

$/bbl

99.9

-0.5

-5.9

-7.0

-15.8

Rs/bbl

4794.0

-1.0

-6.6

-4.3

-9.9
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.197 223.8 Prev. day 1.9 -1.4

as on 16 April, 2013

WoW 4.09 1.96

MoM 8.67 7.24

YoY 109.54 113.75

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The Base metal pack traded on the positive note on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, rise in US housing starts data supported prices to trade in green. However, weak economic data from Europe coupled with decline in US Building permits data capped sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets sharp upside in the prices was prevented on the back of appreciation in the Indian Rupee. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc Rs /kg 101.7 0.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 $/tonne 1904.3 1.8 -1.0 -0.8 -5.3 Rs /kg 111.6 0.8 -1.6 -5.3 3.9 $/tonne 2078.8 1.8 -0.6 -4.2 -0.3 Rs /kg 852.8 -0.3 -3.5 -5.7 -7.0 $/tonne 15760.0 0.3 -2.9 -5.2 -11.1 Rs /kg 102.9 1.7 -0.5 -1.3 -3.1 $/tonne 1923.3 2.5 0.2 -0.7 -7.5 Rs/kg 394.6 -0.4 -4.8 -4.4 -4.9 $/tonne Last 7319.3 Prev. day 0.5 as on 16 April, 2013 WoW -4.1 MoM -6.7 YoY -8.9

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 0.5 percent on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. However, rise in LME inventories by 0.1 percent, weak economic data from Europe along with decline in US Building permits capped sharp gains in the prices. Additionally, IMF slashed the world GDP growth to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent acted as a negative factor. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7135.7/tonne and closed at $7319.25/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note and closed at Rs. 394.6/kg on Tuesday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 390/kg. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the prices. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of weak economic data from Europe coupled with decline in US Building permits data. Further, IMF slashed the world GDP growth to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent may add downside pressure. Additionally, expectation of unfavourable economic data from UK may act as a negative factor for the prices. However, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may cushion sharp decline in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee may exert downside pressure on the prices. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 17, 2013 Support 391/388 100.6/99.6 110.5/109.5 102/101.4 845/837 Resistance 398/400 102.5/103.5 112.5/113.5 103.5/104.5 862/870

(April13)
Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 16th April 611,925 5,199,000 168,594 1,127,175 259,675 15th April 611,175 5,192,325 168,762 1,131,475 259,025 Actual Change 750 6,675 -168 -4,300 650 (%) Change 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.3
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| April 17, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Claimant Count Change MPC Meeting Minutes Unemployment Rate German 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Beige Book Country US US UK UK UK Europe US US US US Time (IST) 12:30am 12:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm Tentative 7:00pm 8:00pm 9:30pm 11:30pm Actual Forecast 0.0K 0-0-9 7.8% 1.3M Previous -1.5K 0-0-9 7.8% 1.36/1.6 0.3M Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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