Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 7,000 in the last month. Japans Consumer Confidence rose to 44.8-mark in month of March. UKs Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in February. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.92 trillion Yen in March. Asian markets are trading lower taking cues from drop in US and European equities market on the concerns of slowdown in the global economic growth. Chinas Foreign Direct Investment rose by 1.4 percent in March from earlier decline of 1.4 percent in February. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 1.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, rise in the UKs unemployment rate data also supported an upside in the currency. Further, US equities traded on a weak note which also acted as a positive factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.815 and closed at 82.79 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from oil companies and custodian banks. Further, weak domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of expectations for cut in the key rates by the central banks in the monetary rd policy to be announced on 3 May 2013. Additionally, inflow of foreign funds also prevented sharp fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.24 and closed at 54.17 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.352.60 crores th ($65.79 million) as on 17 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.55, 974.90 crores ($10,375.90 million) till 17 April 2013. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 7,000 in March as against a fall of 5,300 in February. Unemployment Rate rose to 7.9 percent in February from earlier rise of 7.8 percent a month ago. Average Earnings Index increased by 0.8 percent in February as compared to rise of 1.2 percent in earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.17 Prev day -0.4

as on 17 April, 2013 w-o-w 0.4 m-o-m 0.3 y-o-y -5.2

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3028

-1.1

-0.3

0.7

-0.7

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.79

1.2

0.2

-0.5

4.2

5688.7

0.0

2.3

-0.1

7.3

SENSEX

18731.2

-0.1

1.7

-0.8

2.4

DJIA

14618.6

-0.9

-1.2

0.7

11.5

S&P

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 1.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Jens Weidmann said that central bank may cut the interest rates if economic conditions demand for it. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3000 and closed at 1.3028 against dollar on Wednesday. Japans Consumer Confidence rose by 0.5 points to 44.8-mark in March as against a rise of 44.3-level in February. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.92 trillion Yen in March as against a previous deficit of 1.09 trillion Yen in February.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold price increased by 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in demand for physical gold. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX capped sharp gains in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1394.6/oz and closed at $1376.5/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on negative note in the yesterday trading session and closed at Rs.25679/10 gms after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 25435/10 gms on Wednesday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp decline in the prices. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1376.5 25550.0 Prev. day 0.6 -0.6 as on 17 April, 2013 WoW -11.7 -13.0 MoM -14.3 -14.1 YoY -16.5 -10.3

1392.0

0.9

-11.6

-13.4

-14.9

$/oz

1382.2

-0.3

-11.6

-14.4

-16.2

Rs /10 gms

25679.0

-0.3

-12.1

-13.5

-9.8

Silver
Taking cues from fall in base metal prices along with strength in DX, Spot silver prices declined by 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, weak economic data from UK coupled with rise in worries over global economic growth added downside pressure. The white metal prices touched an intra-day low of $22.83/oz and closed at $23.3/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 1.3 percent taking cues from the spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 43631/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 42838/kg on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.3 45350.0 Prev day -0.4 -2.5

Source: Reuters

as on 17 April, 2013 WoW -15.7 -14.4 MoM -19.1 -18.0 YoY -26.5 -19.7

$/oz $/ oz

2331.0 2330.1

-0.7 -1.4

-16.0 -15.7

-19.3 -19.0

-26.3 -26.4

Rs / kg

43631.0

-1.3

-15.7

-19.7

-22.1

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a negative side on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, rise in worries over global economic growth as the IMF slashed its world GDP growth forecast will add downside pressure. However, expectation of rise in US initial jobless claims may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 18, 2013 Support 1347/1335 25440/25200 22.70/22.50 43200/42800 Resistance 1366/1380 25800/26050 23.10/23.35 44000/44400

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.3 percent yesterday taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel. Additionally, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the crude oil prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $86.06/bbl and closed at $86.68/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 1.9 percent and closed at Rs.4701/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.4666/bbl on Wednesday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined unexpectedly by 1.2 million barrels to 387.60 million barrels for th the week ending on 12 April 2013. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.6 million barrels to 221.70 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels to 115.20 million barrels for the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (April 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 86.7 98.0 86.7 Prev. day -2.3 -1.1 -2.3 WoW -8.4 -7.5 -8.4 as on 17 April, 2013 MoM -7.0 -9.9 -6.8 YoY -16.9 -16.8 -16.8

$/bbl

97.7

-2.2

-7.7

-10.1

-17.8

Rs/bbl

4701.0

-1.9

-8.5

-7.7

-12.4
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.204 228 Prev. day 0.2 1.9

as on 17 April, 2013

WoW 2.51 1.15

MoM 8.86 9.25

YoY 115.81 124.63

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 35 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 12th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments, rise in US crude oil production along with strength in the DX. Additionally, expectations of decline in retail sales data from UK coupled with unfavorable jobless claims data from US will also exert downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned as a result of unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories in yesterdays trade. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude April 13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 18, 2013 Support 85.90/85.30 4670/4640 Resistance 88.90/89.80 4830/4880
Source: Telequote

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The Base metal pack traded on the negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, unfavourable economic data from UK also added downside pressure. Additionally, rise in worries over global economic growth also acted as a negative factor. However, sharp fall in the prices was prevented on the back of decline in LME inventories. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

as on 17 April, 2013 WoW -7.1 MoM -10.2 YoY -12.6

Last 7044.8

Prev. day -3.8

$/tonne

Rs/kg

381.4

-3.3

-7.5

-8.6

-8.1

$/tonne

1891.5

-1.7

-0.9

-2.7

-9.1

Rs /kg

101.6

-1.2

-1.3

-2.4

-4.0

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack decreased by 3.8 percent on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, weak economic data from major economies has increased the worries among the investors that the demand for copper may go down which added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, IMF slashed the world GDP growth forecast also acted as a negative factor. However, decline in LME inventory by 0.6 percent cushioned sharp fall in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $7038.75/tonne and closed at $7044.75/tonne yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note and closed at Rs. 381.4/kg on Wednesday after touching an intra-day low of Rs 379.7/kg. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp decline in the prices. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the negative note on the back of weak global markets sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, expectation of decline in the Retail sales data from UK and rise in US initial jobless claims may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, worries over global economic growth may act as a negative factor. However, expectation of rise in Philly Fed manufacturing index from US may prevent sharp downside in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp fall in the prices. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 18, 2013 Support 378/375 99/98 107.8/106.8 100.8/100 825/817 Resistance 384/388 101/102 109.8/110.5 102.4/103.5 843/852

$/tonne

15403.0

-2.3

-4.4

-8.4

-13.5

Rs /kg

833.6

-2.3

-5.2

-8.9

-9.2

$/tonne

2019.0

-2.9

-3.6

-7.6

-2.5

Rs /kg

108.7

-2.6

-4.4

-8.0

2.1

$/tonne

1873.0

-1.6

-1.9

-3.2

-6.4

Rs /kg

100.1

-1.5

-3.0

-3.7

-2.8

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 17th April 608,525 5,188,475 168,546 1,121,050 259,475 16th April 611,925 5,199,000 168,594 1,127,175 259,675 Actual Change -3,400 -10,525 -48 -6,125 -200 (%) Change -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| April 18, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Trade Balance Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Philly Fed Manufacturing Index G20 Meetings FOMC Member Raskin Speaks Country US Japan UK Euro US US All US Time (IST) 1:30am 5:20am 2:00pm Tentative 6:00pm 7:30pm Day 1 9:30pm Actual -0.92T Forecast -0.92T -0.7% 349K 2.7 Previous -1.09T 2.1% 346K 2.0 Impact Medium Medium High High High High High Medium

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