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The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh The Benefits, Cato Policy Analysis No. 330
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: The Costs Outweigh The Benefits, Cato Policy Analysis No. 330
by Kathleen C. Bailey
Executive Summary
Introduction
Table 1
Key Arguments in the CTBT Debate
______________________________________________________________________________________
A ban is verifiable (it freezes other nations' A ban is not verifiable (if other nations cheat,
nuclear capabilities) it does not freeze their nuclear capabilities)
______________________________________________________________________________________
Despite the fact that the CTBT does not define what
constitutes a nuclear test, the Clinton administration
adopted a formal, unilateral U.S. interpretation that the
test ban outlaws any tests or experiments unless they are
"zero yield." This interpretation prevents the United
States from conducting hydronuclear experiments, which had
previously been used to assess the safety of U.S. nuclear
weapons and have played an important role in maintaining
U.S. nuclear weapons expertise and test readiness.16
Simulations cannot substitute for such low-level experi-
ments.17
The poll also found that the public does not support
nuclear testing. One question asked how respondents felt
about the United States participating in a treaty that
bans all nuclear test explosions. Seventy-three percent
supported such a treaty, 7 percent were unsure, and 21
percent opposed it.
An Alternative
Conclusion
The first of two principal arguments for CTBT ratifi-
cation is that the treaty will be a step toward total
nuclear disarmament because it will constrain the modern-
ization and development of nuclear weapons. The second
argument is that the CTBT will stem nuclear proliferation.
While it is true that modernization and development will
be constrained, some opponents of the treaty view that as
a negative outcome for the United States. Further, they
fear that other nations may continue to modernize and
develop nuclear weapons despite the treaty because CTBT
verification measures will not likely detect evasive test-
ing. The notion that the CTBT will stem proliferation is
clearly untrue. Nations can acquire workable nuclear
arsenals without testing.
Notes
1. "Message from the President of the United States
Transmitting the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty to
the U.S. Senate," September 23, 1997, p. iv.
8. Ibid.