Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Highlights
US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in the last month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5-mark in April. European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data which indicates a slowdown in the global economic growth. US Existing Home Sales declined to 4.92 million in March as against a rise of 4.95 million in February. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.1 points to 50.5-mark in April as against a rise of 51.6-level in March.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5834.4 19169.8 14567.17 1562.5 16021.7 1926.3 58497.8 13568.4 88.76 1421.00 2332.00 6926.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.9 0.9 2.1 0.0 -0.6 0.0

as on April 22, 2013 WoW 4.8 4.4 -0.2 0.7 2.5 0.3 10.5 -0.1 0.1 4.4 -1.3 -4.9 0.3 MoM 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 2.4 -2.9 5.1 9.4 -6.4 -11.4 -18.6 -11.7 0.8 YoY 10.3 4.8 11.8 12.6 11.2 -2.2 -4.9 41.9 -13.9 -13.4 -23.6 -15.3 0.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US equities also traded on an upbeat note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable existing home sales data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.735 and closed at 82.82 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.0 -0.3 0.15 0.16 WoW 0.4 0.6 -1.08 -1.08

as on April 22, 2013 MoM 0.4 0.2 -0.46 -0.46 YoY 4.2 -3.9 3.94 3.96

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of domestic equities trading on an upbeat note along with expectations of cut in the key rates by the central banks rd in the monetary policy to be announced on 3 May 2013. Weakness in the Indian Rupee also prevented further fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.24 and closed at 54.20 against dollar on Monday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,628.80 crores nd ($302.06 million) as on 22 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.57,251.10 crores ($10,612.10 million) till 22 April 2013. Outlook

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.82 54.20 54.11 54.12

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from oil and gold importers will also add downside pressure on the currency.
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for April 23, 2013 Support 53.95/53.75 Resistance 54.30/54.45

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in borrowing cost for Italy and Spain supported an upside in the currency. European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March from earlier fall of 24-mark in February. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3093 and closed at 1.3066 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. However, expectation of favorable economic data from Euro zone may cushion sharp decline in the currency or even reversal. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) sideways 70.40/70.25 70.75/70.90 valid for April 23, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3066 70.72 70.6 70.6 Prev. day 0.1 -0.1 0.02 -0.01

as on April 22, 2013 WoW 0.2 0.5 -1.26 -1.26 MoM 1.7 -1.3 0.18 0.18 YoY -1.2 -4.4 3.16 3.22

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.41 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of optimistic global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX supported the currency to trade in green. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped on the back of worries over countries economic growth. The Sterling Pound touched an intraday high of 1.5292 and closed at 1.5292 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further, expectation of unfavorable public sector net borrowing data from the country may exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) sideways valid for April 23, 2013 Support 82.20/81.90 Resistance 82.70/83.00

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5292 82.788 82.44 Prev. day 0.41 0.290 -0.05

as on April 22, 2013

WoW 0.1 -0.78 -1.63

MoM 0.8 0.03 -0.25

YoY -5.2 -1.42 -0.56

82.45

-0.02

-1.62

-0.22

-0.56

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| April 23, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of no opposition by the Group of 20 meetings members on Bank of Japans monetary policy measures . However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.02 and closed at 99.20 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 23, 2013 Support 54.10/53.85 Resistance 54.45/54.70

JPY (% change)
Last 99.2 0.5458 54.30 54.31 Prev day -0.3 -0.78 -1.24 -1.23

as on April 22, 2013 WoW 2.5 -3.14 -3.03 -3.01 MoM 5.4 -5.08 -5.32 -5.31 YoY 21.7 -14.51 -15.42 -15.42

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on April 23, 2013

Indicator MPC Member Tucker Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish HPI q/q CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Country UK China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK Europe UK US US Time (IST) 12:00am 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm Tentative 3:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Actual 50.5 Forecast 51.4 44.2 42.3 49.0 51.1 46.8 46.7 13.9B -14 54.3 419K Previous 51.6 44.0 41.3 49.0 50.9 46.8 46.4 4.4B -2.2% -15 54.6 411K Impact Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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