Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Unemployment Claims declined to 339,000 for w/e on 19 April. Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012. UKs Prelim Prelim GDP rose by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013. Japans Tokyo Core CPI declined by 0.3 percent in the current month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from Japan. Further, decline in US jobless claims data also led to upbeat global market sentiments. US Unemployment Claims declined by 16,000 to 339,000 for the week th ending on 19 April as against a rise of 355,000 in prior week. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, US jobless claims data also came on a favorable note which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 82.485 and closed at 82.84 on Thursday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of expectations of increase in foreign funds inflows. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments, weakness in the DX along with selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks also supported an upside in the currency. Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 54.09 and closed at same levels against dollar on Thursday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,903.80 crores th ($537.24 million) as on 25 April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.58,526.10 crores ($10,847.30 million) till 25 April 2013. UKs Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a decline of 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. Index of Services gained by 0.1 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.3 percent a month ago.
th

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.09 Prev day 0.4

as on 24 April, 2013 w-o-w -0.1 m-o-m 0.4 y-o-y -3.0

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3012

0.0

-0.3

1.5

-1.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.84

-0.2

0.2

-0.7

4.3

5916.3

1.4

2.3

4.1

13.3

SENSEX

19406.9

1.2

2.1

3.0

6.1

DJIA

14700.8

0.2

1.1

0.8

12.3

S&P

1585.2

0.4

2.8

2.2

14.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated marginally by 0.02 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of disappointing Spanish unemployment data. Further, expectation of interest rates cut by ECB kept Euro under pressure. However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the currency. Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 26 percent in Q3 of 2012. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2988 and closed at 1.3012 against dollar on Thursday. Japans Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.3 percent in April as against a fall of 0.5 percent in March. National Core CPI dropped by 0.5 percent in current month from decline of 0.3 percent in March.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold price increased by 2.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop supported prices. Additionally, rise in central bank purchases acted as a positive factor for the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1468.6/oz and closed at $1467/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note in the yesterday trading session tracking spot gold prices and closed at Rs.27041/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 27097/10 gms on Thursday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX platform. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1467.0 26600.0 Prev. day 2.5 0.9 as on 25 April, 2013 WoW 5.5 3.1 MoM -8.1 -10.1 YoY -10.8 -7.6

1451.0

1.6

4.1

-9.2

-11.4

$/oz

1461.8

2.7

4.8

-8.6

-10.9

Rs /10 gms

27041.0

2.5

5.2

-8.2

-6.2

Silver
Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices along with the weakness in DX, Spot silver prices rose by 5.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session. Further, optimistic global market sentiments, favourable economic data from US along with upside in the base metals pack supported prices to trade on positive note. However, rise in Spanish unemployment rate capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $24.38 /oz and closed at $24.31/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased by 5.3 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs. 45174/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 45330/kg on Thursday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 24.3 45260.0 Prev day 5.3 0.3

Source: Reuters

as on 25 April, 2013 WoW 4.6 -1.6 MoM -14.2 -17.0 YoY -20.8 -20.0

$/oz $/ oz

2330.0 2414.0

1.7 5.7

-0.9 3.9

-18.6 -14.7

-24.5 -20.5

Rs / kg

45174.0

5.3

4.4

-15.7

-18.2

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of favourable economic data from US may support prices to trade in green. However, sharp upside in the prices may be capped as the economic data from Euro zone is expected to come on negative note. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp gains in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 26, 2013 Support 1471/1463 26950/26800 24.20/23.90 44800/44300 Resistance 1485/1490

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

27200/27300 24.55/24.80 45400/45900

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 2.4 percent yesterday taking cues from decline in US jobless claims which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Further, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $93.87/bbl and closed at $93.60/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 2 percent and closed at Rs.5,059/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5073/bbl on Thursday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 93.3 102.8 93.6 Prev. day 2.4 0.9 2.4 WoW 6.2 4.2 6.7 as on 25 April, 2013 MoM -4.1 -6.2 -3.7 YoY -10.1 -12.5 -10.1

$/bbl

103.4

1.7

4.3

-6.0

-13.2

Rs/bbl

5059.0

2.0

6.8

-4.6

-8.1
Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices traded on a flat note and decline marginally in yesterdays trading session on the back of increase in the US natural gas inventories. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Gas prices touched an intra-day low of $4.141/mmbtu and closed at $4.166/mmbtu in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices gained by 0.35 percent yesterday and closed at Rs.228.10/mmbtu after touching an intra-day high of Rs.230/mmbtu on Thursday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory increased less than expectations by 30 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 1.734 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 19th April 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and UKs GDP data will also support an upside in the prices. Further, expectations of rise in the US GDP and consumer sentiments data will act as a positive factor for the crude prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 26, 2013 Support 92.20/91.30 5000/4950 Resistance 93.90/94.80 5090/5140

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (April 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.166 228.1 Prev. day 0.0 0.4

as on 25 April, 2013

WoW -5.60 -3.71

MoM 7.40 7.09

YoY 100.29 114.38

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in LME inventories also supported prices to trade positive. Additionally, rise in UKs GDP by 0.3 percent in first quarter of 2013 along with decline in US initial jobless claims supported prices to trade in green However, weak economic data from Euro zone capped sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp upside in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

as on 25 April, 2013 WoW 1.8 MoM -8.2 YoY -12.2

Last 7200.0

Prev. day 2.9

$/tonne

Rs/kg

388.9

2.7

1.9

-5.8

-9.4

$/tonne

1942.5

1.9

1.4

2.1

-6.3

Rs /kg

103.7

1.6

1.3

1.5

-3.3

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack increased by 2.9 percent on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, decline in LME inventories by 0.3 percent supported prices to trade in green. Additionally, favourable economic data from UK and US supported prices to trade on the positive note. However, disappointing Spanish unemployment rate capped sharp upside in the prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7200/tonne and closed at same level in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note and closed at Rs. 388.9/kg on Thursday after touching an intra-day high of Rs 389.4/ kg. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of rise in US GDP by 3.1 percent in first quarter of 2013 may support prices to trade on the positive note. Additionally, decline in US initial jobless claims coupled with rise in UKs GDP data may support prices to trade in green. However, expectation of unfavourable economic data from euro zone may cap sharp upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian rupee may prevent sharp gains in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 26, 2013 Support 385/382 102.5/101.5 111/110.2 103/102.3 825/817 Resistance 392/396 104/105.8 112.5/113.5 104.5/105.5 840/848

$/tonne

15450.0

1.3

-0.7

-7.4

-12.4

Rs /kg

833.9

1.1

-0.7

-7.9

-9.9

$/tonne

2075.0

1.5

2.9

-1.5

-0.6

Rs /kg

111.8

1.4

3.5

-1.8

2.2

$/tonne

1937.0

1.1

2.6

2.2

-3.7

Rs /kg

103.3

1.1

2.6

1.8

-1.5

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 25th April 618,475 5,159,000 175,764 1,086,550 258,450 24th April 620,375 5,167,075 175,860 1,092,550 258,800 Actual Change -1,900 -8,075 -96 -6,000 -350 (%) Change -0.3 -0.16 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Friday| April 26, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Tokyo Core CPI y/y Monetary Policy Statement Overnight Call Rate BOJ Outlook Report BOJ Press Conference M3 Money Supply y/y Advance GDP q/q Advance GDP Price Index q/q Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Europe US US US Time (IST) 5:00am Tentative Tentative 11:30am Tentative 1:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm Actual -0.3% Forecast -0.4% <0.10% 3.0% 3.1% 1.3% 73.3 Previous -0.5% <0.10% 3.1% 0.4% 1.0% 72.3 Impact Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

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