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Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Market Outlook Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat mirroring flat opening trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed opening across major Asian bourses. The US markets moved mostly higher during trading on Thursday after ending the previous session roughly flat. The markets benefited from a positive reaction to the latest earnings news as well as some upbeat employment data. The Labor Department report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. Meanwhile, the European markets extended their recent upward trend to a fifth consecutive session on Thursday on expectations of rate cut by the ECB at their upcoming meeting next week. The better than expected British GDP result and the bigger than expected decline in U.S. jobless claims also contributed to the positive mood. Meanwhile, Indian markets edged sharply higher to a six-week high on Thursday, primarily lifted by aggressive buying in rate-sensitive stocks on continued hopes that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates next week for a third time this year.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT
Global Indices
1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 2.0 1.0 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.4 (1.6)
Chg (%)
Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
24 14,701 20 11
83 15 (19)
3,290 6,443
13,926 3,338 2,199
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,345 / 5,898 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,497 19,587 / 5,943 5,969 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 19,345 / 5,898 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,254 19,102 / 5,872 5,827 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 19,102 5,827 S1 19,254 5,872 PIVOT 19,345 5,898 R1 19,497 5,943 R2 19,587 5,969
218 22,401
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
News Analysis
Result Review: Hindustan Zinc, Idea, United Phosphorous, Abbott India, Rallis India, Fag Bearings, Infotech Enterprises, Vesuvius India, Cera Sanitaryware, Result Preview: Maruti, Hero MotoCorp,
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
743 650 86
Volumes (` cr)
BSE NSE
2,457 15,608
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Jet Air India Mahindra & Mah Fin TTK Prestige Godrej Cons Dr Reddys Lab
Losers Company
Bata India Engineers India Indian Hotels Gitanjali Gems Coromandel Intl
Price (`)
635 228 3,063 887 1,993
chg (%)
10.7 10.6 5.2 5.0 4.7
Price (`)
705 178 56 603 186
chg (%)
(3.5) (2.9) (2.8) (2.5) (2.3)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
Result Review
Hindustan Zinc (CMP: 119/ TP: 140/ Upside: 18%)
Hindustan Zincs (HZL) reported better than expected 4QFY2013 results, both on top-line and profitability front. HZLs net revenue increased by 24.5% yoy to `3,850cr (above our estimate of `3,091cr) mainly due to increased sales volumes of silver and higher rupee realizations. Zinc production volumes however declined 4.0% yoy to 182kt but silver production volumes grew 33.0% yoy to 117kt due to higher production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver capacities. EBITDA margin contracted by 133bp yoy to 55.0% mainly on account of 8.0% yoy increase in cost of production to `44,901/tonne. Cost of production increased due to higher strip ratio at Rampura Agucha and lower acid credits, partially offset by lower power costs. Mining royalty as a percentage to sales declined to 6.3% compared to 7.4% in 4QFY2012 and other operating income also increased by 40.7% yoy to `58cr. Hence, EBITDA increased by 27.5% yoy to `2,116cr. Other income rose by 8.1% yoy to `412cr while the depreciation was down by 27.0% yoy to `122cr and tax rate was also much lower at 8.9% in 4QFY2013 (24.1% in 4QFY2012). There was an exceptional item of VRS scheme of `18cr and consequently, adjusted net profit grew by 53.6% yoy to `2,183cr (much above our estimate of `1,663cr). We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `140.
Y/E March Sales (` cr) OPM (%) 54.0 53.8 PAT (` cr) 7,237 7,597 EPS (`) 17.1 18.0 ROE (%) 20.2 18.1 P/E (x) 6.9 6.6 P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.1 (x) 2.9 2.0 (x) 1.5 1.1
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Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
3QFY2013. Ideas subscriber base increased by 6.8% qoq with the end of period (EoP) subscriber base standing at 122mn. Ideas EBITDA margin increased by 119bp qoq to 27.6%. The EBITDA margin inch up was led by strong revenue growth along with qoq almost flat network operating charges. The PAT came in at `308cr, up 35% qoq, led by strong operational performance and qoq lower interest charges at `224 vs. `242cr in 3QFY2013. We maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E March FY2014E FY2015E Sales (` cr) 25,122 27,663 OPM (%) 27.0 27.2 PAT (` cr) 1,310 1,571 EPS (`) 4.0 4.8 ROE (%) 8.3 9.1 P/E (x) 29.3 24.4 P/BV (x) 2.4 2.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 6.3 EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.7
Abbott India- 1QCY2013 Review (CMP: `1,379/ TP: `1,659/ Upside: 20.3%)
For 1QCY2013, Abbott India reported 11.6% yoy growth in topline at `420cr, 3.2% lower than our estimate of `433cr. EBITDA margin expanded by 313bp yoy primarily due to lower raw material prices. However, the adjusted net profit increased by just 17.1% yoy to `32cr inspite of a 56.4% yoy growth in EBITDA during 1QCY2013 due to exceptional item of `10cr in 1QCY2012 from writeback of depreciation and provision for expired goods. We expect the revenue to grow at a modest 12.2% revenue CAGR over CY2012-14E, while EBITDA margin would stabilize in the range of 12.0-12.5% going forward. Net profit is expected to post a 10.4% CAGR over the same period. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,659 based on a target PE of 20x for CY2014E.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
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Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
Vesuvius India 1QCY2013 Review (CMP: `347/ TP: `439/ Upside: 26.5%)
For 1QCY2013, VIL reported a 4% yoy increase in topline to `145cr, inline with our estimate of `144cr. The EBITDA margin surprised positively reporting an expansion of 558bp yoy to 20.2% from 14.6% in 1QCY2012 primarily due to decline in raw material costs. As a result, net profit grew by a stupendous 52.6% yoy to `18cr in 1QCY2013 as compared to `12cr in same quarter last year. We believe the decline in commodity prices would facilitate higher margins for the rest of the year, inspite of 6.4% CAGR in revenue over CY2012-14E; thus leading to better profitability. Hence, we upgrade the stock to Buy rating with a target price of `439 based on a target PE of 12x for CY2014E
Y/E Dec
CY2013E CY2014E
Sales (` cr)
600 638
OPM (%)
20 19
PAT (` cr)
72 74
EPS (`)
36 37
RoIC (%)
40.9 39.4
P/E (x)
9.7 9.5
P/BV (x)
1.7 1.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
4.8 4.3
EV/sales (x)
1.0 0.8
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
Result Preview
ICICI Bank (CMP: `1,177 / TP: `1,306 / Upside: 16.4%)
ICICI Bank is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank to report a strong NII growth of 28.3% yoy to `13,767cr, primarily on anticipation of healthy advance growth of 16.5% yoy. Non-interest income is expected to grow by just 5.9% yoy to `8,497 cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 11.4% yoy to `2,474cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to be lower at 382cr as compared to corresponding base of `469cr in 4QFY2012. Hence, we expect the bank to report healthy PAT growth of 23.1% yoy at `2,340Cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.8x FY2014E ABV and 1.6x FY2015E ABV. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of `1,306.
Y/E March FY2014E FY2015E Op. Inc (` cr) 26,371 31,618 NIM (%) 3.0 3.0 PAT (` cr) 9,693 EPS (`) 84.1 ABV (%) ROA (x) ROE (x) 15.8 16.5 P/E (x) 14.0 12.2 P/ABV (x) 1.9 1.7
11,152 96.7
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
superior product-mix and price increases. However, volumes are expected to decline ~5% yoy led by weak demand for entry segment cars. We expect the EBITDA margin to improve by ~130bp yoy (~60bp qoq) to 8.6% driven by favorable currency movement and operating leverage benefits. As a result, the bottom-line is expected to register a strong growth of ~13% yoy to `722cr. At the CMP of `1,590, the stock is trading at 15.5x FY2015 earnings. The stock has rallied by ~25% in the month of April 2013 on the expectations of a strong earnings growth going ahead led by continued depreciation in JPY against the INR which is expected to boost the operating margins. Currently, we have a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E March FY2014E FY2015E Sales (` cr) 48,078 55,133 OPM (%) PAT (` cr) EPS (`) ROE (%) 14.1 14.6 P/E (x) 18.2 15.5 P/BV (x) 2.4 2.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 7.1 EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.6
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
April 26, 2013
Parliament panel says phase out STT Growth rate to return to 8%: Pranab Mukherjee Sluggish pace in road construction due to bottlenecks: Govt
Corporate News
HPCL approves joint venture for `37,320cr Barmer refinery Tata Power commissions 21 MW wind power project in Rajasthan Petronet signs first US deal; to import 4 mn tonnes of LNG Jindal Stainless plans to double Odisha plant capacity to 2 MT
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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