Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5 % in Q1 2013. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in the last month. US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 76.4-mark in April. Asian markets are trading on a positive note on the back of expectations that central banks over the world will continue with its loose monetary policy programs. US Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a rise of 0.4 percent in Q4 of 2012. Advance GDP Price Index increased by 1.2 percent in first quarter of 2013 from rise of 1 percent a quarter ago. Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment increased by 4.1 points to 76.4-mark in April as compared to rise of 72.3-level in March. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations was at 3.1 percent in April with respect to 3 percent in last month. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable new home sales, jobless claims along with rise in GDP and consumer sentiments data from US also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 82.46 and closed at 82.571 on Friday. On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7 percent. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in the currency. Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per the Economic Review report of the government, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks along with expectations of increase in foreign inflows prevented sharp fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a low of 54.44 in the last week and closed at 54.375 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,450.0 crores ($822.66 million) as on 26th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.60,072.30 crores ($11,132.70 million) till 26th April 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.375 Prev day -0.5

as on 26 April, 2013 w-o-w -0.8 m-o-m -0.2 y-o-y -3.6

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3026

0.1

-0.2

1.6

-1.4

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.57

-0.3

-0.3

-0.7

3.9

5871.5

-0.8

1.5

3.3

12.9

SENSEX

19286.7

-0.6

1.4

2.4

5.5

DJIA

14712.6

0.1

1.1

1.0

11.4

S&P

1582.2

-0.2

2.6

1.2

13.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in the last week on the back of decline in the regions manufacturing and services PMI data coupled with fall in the German Ifo business climate. Further, more than expected rise in the Spanish unemployment rate also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp decline in the currency. German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 0.3 percent in February. Money Supply increased at slow pace of 2.6 percent in March from rise of 3.1 percent a month ago. Private Loans declined by 0.8 percent in the last month. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2954 and closed at 1.3026 against dollar on Friday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices increased by 4.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop also supported an upside in the prices. Additionally, rise in central bank purchases along with favourable economic data from US acted as a positive factor for the prices. The yellow metal touched a weekly high of $1484.81/oz and closed at $1462.50/oz in last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by 4.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.27055/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of Rs.27447/10 gms in the last week. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 3.56 percent to 1,083.05 tonnes as on 26th April 2013 from previous level of 1,123.06 tonnes as on 19th April 2013.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1462.5 Prev. day -0.3

as on 26 April, 2013 WoW 4.2 MoM -8.5 YoY -11.6

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (June13) MCX Gold (June13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27000.0

1.5

4.4

-8.5

-6.4

1471.5

1.4

4.7

-7.9

-11.0

$/oz

1453.6

-0.6

2.3

-7.7

-12.4

Rs /10 gms

27055.0

0.1

4.8

-8.3

-6.8

Source: Reuters

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices gained by 3.5 percent in the last week. Further, optimistic global market sentiments, favourable economic data from US along with weakness in the DX also supported prices to trade on positive note. The white metal prices touched a weekly high of $24.82/oz and closed at $23.98/oz in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices rose by 4.4 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 44805/kg on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs.45820/kg. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, decline by 0.56 percent to 10,392.42 tonnes as on 26th April 2013 from previous level of 10,451.01 tonnes as on 19th April 2013.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (May13) MCX Silver (May13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 24.0 46400.0 Prev day -1.4 2.5

as on 26 April, 2013 WoW 3.5 1.3 MoM -16.5 -15.3 YoY -22.7 -17.7

$/oz $/ oz

2402.0 2375.8

3.1 0.0

1.5 1.9

-16.7 -12.7

-21.8 -24.2

Rs / kg

44805.0

-0.8

4.4

-17.1

-19.9

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In the intraday, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop may support prices. However, US GDP grew on a slower note as compared to the expectation may cap sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp gains in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver MCX Silver May13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for April 29, 2013
Source: Telequote

Support 1462/1454 27050/26900 24.10/23.85 44800/44400

Resistance 1476/1481 27300/27400 24.40/24.70 45400/45900

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 5.7 percent in the last week taking cues from less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and UK supported an upside in crude oil prices. However, sharp upside in the crude prices was capped on account of decline in manufacturing and services PMI data from Euro Zone and rise in Spanish unemployment rate. Oil prices touched a weekly high of $93.87/bbl and closed at $93.0/bbl in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 6.9 percent on the back of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,077/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5094/bbl in the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (May 13) ICE Brent Crude (May13) MCX Crude (May 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 92.6 103.5 93.0 Prev. day -0.7 0.7 -0.7 WoW 5.2 3.4 5.7 as on 26 April, 2013 MoM -3.5 -4.4 -4.2 YoY -11.4 -13.3 -11.0

$/bbl

103.2

-0.2

3.5

-5.7

-14.0

Rs/bbl

5077.0

0.4

6.9

-3.0

-7.8
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (May 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 4.152 227.1

(% change)

as on 26 April, 2013

Prev. day -0.3 -0.4

WoW -5.91 -4.14

MoM 4.43 5.24

YoY 103.93 94.43

Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices declined around 5.9 percent on the back of increase in the US natural gas inventories. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $4.062/mmbtu and closed at $4.152/mmbtu in last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices fell by 4.14 percent and closed at Rs.227.10/mmbtu on Friday after touching a low of Rs.222.80/mmbtu on Friday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices on the MCX. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of favorable economic data from US in the evening session will also support an upside in the oil prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of US GDP grew at slower pace than the expectations. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude May13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for April 29, 2013 Support 91.85/90.95 5030/4980 Resistance 93.50/94.0 5120/5150

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note apart from Aluminium in the last week on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, mixed LME inventories along with favourable economic data from US also supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp positive movement in the prices was capped on account of decline in manufacturing and services PMI data from Euro Zone and rise in the Spanish unemployment rate. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Indian rupee acted as a positive factor. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (April13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (April13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (April13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (April13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (April13)
Source: Reuters

as on 26 April, 2013 WoW 1.0 MoM -10.3 YoY -15.5

Last 7038.0

Prev. day -2.3

$/tonne

Rs/kg

382.2

-1.7

2.0

-8.5

-12.4

$/tonne

1874.8

-3.5

-0.4

-2.1

-10.3

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack group increased by 1 percent on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Additionally, favourable economic data from US along with fall in Shanghai inventories also supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of rise in LME copper inventories and unfavourable economic data from Euro Zone. The red metal touched a weekly high of $7258/tonne and closed at $7038/tonne in last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices gained by 2 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.382.20/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs.389.4/kg in the last week. Copper Inventories LME copper inventories gained around 0.85 percent in the last th week and stood at 619,600 tonnes as on 26 April, 2013 as against 614,350 tonnes as on 19th April, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.9 percent and stood at 217,180 tonnes for the week ending on 26th April, 2013. Outlook In the intra-day, we expect base metals prices to trade on the positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Additionally, expectations of rise in US pending home sales data will also support an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of US GDP grew at slower pace than the expectations. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp upside in the prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper April13 MCX Zinc April 13 MCX Lead April 13 MCX Aluminum April13 MCX Nickel April 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for April 29, 2013 Support 379/376 100/99 108.80/107.80 99.50/98.50 817/810 Resistance 385/389 101.80/102.50 110.50/111.50 101.50/102.50 832/840

Rs /kg

100.5

-3.1

-0.1

-2.1

-6.7

$/tonne

15192.0

-1.7

0.1

-9.6

-16.8

Rs /kg

824.0

-1.2

0.8

-9.7

-13.5

$/tonne

2030.8

-2.1

0.7

-5.0

-4.2

Rs /kg

109.6

-2.0

1.3

-5.0

-1.0

$/tonne

1885.0

-2.7

0.4

-1.5

-7.5

Rs /kg

100.9

-2.3

0.9

-1.8

-4.9

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 26 April 619,600 5,158,625 175,566 1,080,475 257,775
th

25 April 618,475 5,159,000 175,764 1,086,550 258,450

th

Actual Change 1,125 -375 -198 -6,075 -675

(%) Change 0.2 -0.01 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| April 29, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday German Prelim CPI m/m Italian 10-y Bond Auction Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Pending Home Sales m/m Country Japan China Euro Euro US US US Time (IST) All Day All Day All Day Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% Previous 0.5% 4.66/1.3 0.1% 0.7% -0.4% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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