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The Future of Marine Technologies: Technology developments, key costs and the future outlook
Published on January 2010

Report Summary
Many of the world's potential renewable energy resources are being exploited today to generate electricity. The main exception is marine energy, the energy contained in various forms in the world's seas and oceans. This situation looks set to change as the challenge of combating global warming inspires a renewed search for methods to extract marine energy from our seas. Wave power and systems that can exploit the movement of water generated by the tides are attracting the most attention but methods for using the warm seas in the tropics to produce electricity and even the attempts to extract energy released when salt and fresh water mix are now coming under the gaze of scientists and technicians too. Some of the resulting technologies remain far from commercial implementation but several are now close to commercialization. With all but tidal barrage power plants still in an early stage of development and no commercial plants of any other type in operation, assessing the economics of marine power generation technologies today depends on projections based on early prototypes of early demonstration units. Today these are generally more costly than alternative forms of power generation, both conventional and renewable. However the example of the wind power market shows that costs can fall dramatically as both technology improves and economies of scale are realized. Some early predictions suggest that some marine technologies might be cheaper than wind power but the level of uncertainty in such predictions is high.

Key features of this report

' Analysis of marine technologies concepts and components. ' Assessment of marine technologies power plant market. ' Insight relating to the most innovative technologies and potential areas of opportunity for manufacturers. ' Examination of the key technology introductions and innovations.

Scope of this report

' Realize up to date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive review of marine technologies concepts in electricity power generation markets. ' Assess the emerging trends in marine technologies ' including ocean thermal energy conversion, wave power generation and tidal stream technologies, tidal barrage power plants, salinity gradient power generation. ' Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to allow greater market impact. ' Compare how manufacturers are developing new marine technologies

Key Market Issues

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' Environmental requirements:- The volume of fossil fuels burnt for power and heat generation have continually grown in line with economic, infrastructure and population growth. The resulting growth of carbon dioxide emissions globally has been linked to global warming and thereon climate change. Political, environmentalist and consumer pressures to lower carbon emissions is creating a path for lower carbon emitting power generation technologies. ' Ocean energy resources:- The energy that can be derived from the world's oceans and converted into electrical power comes from a number of different sources. These include daily tidal motions, the energy contained in waves, a variety of ocean and sea currents and by exploitation of both thermal and salinity gradients where these exist. Estimates for the amount of power that can be extracted from the oceans depend on assumptions about the energy content of the particular source being exploited as well as the efficiency of extraction of energy that can be achieved by an energy converter. ' Economics of clean thermal technologies:- With all but tidal barrage power plants still in an early stage of development and no commercial plants of any other type in operation, assessing the economics of marine power generation technologies today depends on projections based on early prototypes of early demonstration units. Key findings from this report

' New types of marine power generation technologies are evolving that are designed to use freely available resources and collect energy outputting low level pollutant emissions. ' Wave power is again potentially the largest resource, with the potential to provide between 1,000GW and 10,000GW of generating capacity. ' The strongest winds and the largest waves are generally found between 30 and 60 of latitude. ' Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion technologies have among the lowest of all life cycle carbon emissions. ' Certain forms of marine technology generation are already cost competitive with alternative forms of energy generation. Key questions answered

' What are the drivers shaping and influencing marine technology development in the electricity industry' ' What are the life cycle carbon emissions of the various marine technologies' ' What is marine technology power generation going to cost' ' Which marine technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms power generated, cost and viability'

Companies mentioned

Table of Content
Table of Contents The Future of Marine Technologies Executive summary 10 Introduction 10 Ocean energy resources 10 Ocean thermal energy conversion 11 Wave power generation 11 Tidal stream technologies 12 Tidal barrage power plants 12 Salinity gradient power generation 13

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The economics of marine power generation 13 The prospects for marine power generation technologies 13 Chapter 1 Introduction 16 Summary 16 Marine energy resources 17 Energy capture technologies 18 The structure of the report 20 Chapter 2 Ocean energy resources 22 Introduction 22 Global resource levels 23 Wave energy 27 Tidal power 30 Thermal gradient 32 Salinity gradient 33 Mapping marine resources 33 Chapter 3 Ocean thermal energy conversion 36 Introduction 36 Background 37 Heat engine efficiency 39 OTEC configurations 41 Open cycle OTEC 43 OTEC projects 44 Major challenges and developments 46 Environmental considerations 47 Economics 49 Chapter 4 Wave power generation 54 Introduction 54 History of wave energy capture 56 Types of wave energy capture device 57 Shore line and near shore devices 58 Oscillating water columns 58 Tapered channels and overtopping devices 59 Oscillating flaps 60 Offshore wave energy converters 61 Floats, wave pumps and swings 61 Snakes, ducks and pontoons 62 Piezo-electric converters 63 Intermittency and wave energy 63 Wave energy pilot projects 64 Environmental impact 67 Economics 68 Chapter 5 Tidal stream technologies 74 Introduction 74 Tidal stream energy 75 Tidal stream technology 78 Horizontal axis tidal stream turbines 80 Vertical axis tidal stream turbines 83 Cross flow turbines 84 Hydrofoils 84 Other tidal current systems 85

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Tidal stream pilot projects 86 Environmental considerations 88 The economics of tidal stream power generation 89 Chapter 6 Tidal barrage power plants 94 Introduction 94 Tidal barrage principles 98 Bunded reservoirs and tidal lagoons 100 Tidal turbines 101 Tidal barrages 102 Seawater pumped storage 103 Tidal barrage projects 104 Environmental considerations 105 The economics of tidal barrages 107 Chapter 7 Salinity gradient power generation 110 Introduction 110 Extracting power from a salinity gradient 111 Osmotic power 111 Vapor compression 112 Hydrocratic generation 113 Reversed electrodialysis 113 Environmental considerations 114 Costs 115 Chapter 8 The economics of marine power generation 118 Introduction 118 Comparisons with wind energy 119 Installed cost of marine technologies 121 Cost of electricity from marine power generation technologies 122 Chapter 9 The prospects for marine power generation technologies 128 Introduction 128 Comparative costs of power generation 129 Wave and tidal stream power 136 Tidal barrage power plants 139 Ocean thermal energy technology 140 Salinity gradient power generation 143 Conclusions 143 Index 145 List of Figures Figure 2.1: Ocean energy resources, (TWh/y) 24 Figure 2.2: Ocean energy potential generating capacity, (GW) 26 Figure 2.3: US wave energy potential, (TWh/y) 29 Figure 2.4: US tidal current potential, (TWh/y) 31 Figure 3.5: Theoretical OTEC efficiencies 40 Figure 3.6: Life cycle carbon dioxide emissions from OTEC plants 48 Figure 3.7: Costs for a 100MW floating OTEC plant 51 Figure 4.8: Annual wave energy content for different regions, (kW/m) 55 Figure 4.9: Estimated installation costs for wave energy converters 69 Figure 4.10: Estimated cost of electricity from wave energy plants 70

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Figure 5.11: Tidal current turbine size required to sweep out a power density of 1MW at different current speeds 76 Figure 5.12: Water current power swept out by a 10m diameter turbine at different current speeds 78

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Figure 6.14: Tidal reach at best global sites, (m) 95 Figure 6.15: Global tidal sites with largest energy potential 97 Figure 8.16: Cost estimates for generation in the UK (/kW) 124

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Figure 5.13: Estimated installed cost ($/kW) of tidal stream generation in North America 92

Figure 9.17: Comparative installed cost of generating technologies (/kW), UK 131 Figure 9.18: Cost of electricity from competing technologies (/MWh), UK 132 Figure 9.19: Levelized cost of electricity from competing technologies ($/MWh), California 134 Figure 9.20: Island states with potential OTEC 142 List of Tables Table 2.1: Ocean energy resources, (TWh/y) 23 Table 2.2: Ocean energy potential generating capacity, (GW) 25 Table 2.3: US wave energy potential, (TWh/y) 28 Table 2.4: US tidal current potential, (TWh/y) 31 Table 3.5: Theoretical OTEC efficiencies 40 Table 3.6: OTEC plant configurations 42 Table 3.7: Life cycle carbon dioxide emissions from OTEC plants 48 Table 3.8: Costs for a 100MW floating OTEC plant 50 Table 4.9: Annual wave energy content for different regions, (kW/m) 55 Table 4.10: Types of wave energy converter 57 Table 4.11: Estimated installation costs for wave energy converters 68 Table 4.12: Estimated cost of electricity from wave energy plants 70 Table 5.13: Tidal current turbine size required to sweep out a power density of 1MW at different current speeds 76 Table 5.14: Water current power swept out by a 10m diameter turbine at different current speeds 77 Table 5.15: Types of tidal stream power generation devices 81 Table 5.16: Cost estimates for tidal stream power generation 90 Table 5.17: Economics of tidal stream generation in North America 91 Table 6.18: Tidal reach at best global sites, (m) 95 Table 6.19: Global tidal sites with largest energy potential 96 Table 6.20: Major tidal barrage power plants 104 Table 7.21: Types of salinity gradient power generation 113 Table 8.22: Marine power generation costs 121 Table 8.23: Cost estimates for generation in the UK 123 Table 9.24: Comparative installed cost of generating technologies (/kW), UK 130 Table 9.25: Cost of electricity from competing technologies (/MWh), UK 132 Table 9.26: Levelized cost of electricity from competing technologies ($/MWh), California 134 Table 9.27: European growth prospects for wave and tidal stream technologies 137 Table 9.28: Island states with potential OTEC 141

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