Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 6, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 6, 2013

Highlights
US Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 165,000 in April. India's RBI has cut repo rates and reverse repo rates by 0.25 bps each. US Unemployment Rate declined to 7.5 percent in the last month. European Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.2 percent in March. UKs Services PMI increased by 0.5 points to 52.9-mark in April. US Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 27,000 to 165,000 in April as against a rise of 138,000 in March. Unemployment Rate declined to 7.5 percent in April from earlier rise of 7.6 percent in March. Average Hourly Earnings was at 0.2 percent in the last month. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.3 points to 53.1-level in April as compared to rise of 54.4-mark in March. Factory Orders fell by 4 percent in March with respect to rise of 1.9 percent a month ago. India's Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut the repo rates by 0.25 bps to 7.25 percent from 7.5 percent and reserve repo rates by 0.25 bps to 6.25 percent from 6.5 percent. Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) has been kept unchanged at 4 percent in the current month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5944.0 19575.6 14973.96 1614.4 16922.3 1965.7 58497.8 13694.0 95.61 1464.30 2397.50 7290.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.9 -0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 -1.2 1.7 -0.2 0.0 6.3 0.0

as on May 3, 2013 WoW 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.1 6.4 -0.1 2.8 -0.2 -0.6 3.6 -0.3 MoM 7.0 6.1 2.5 3.9 11.0 2.0 6.2 3.8 2.4 -6.9 -14.0 -7.1 0.7 YoY 13.5 7.0 13.4 16.0 19.9 0.4 -3.8 0.0 -6.8 -11.4 -21.1 -11.3 1.1

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, decline in US unemployment rate coupled with rise in consumer sentiments and non-farm employment change data acted as a negative factor for the currency. Additionally, US equities traded on a positive note which exerted downside pressure in the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 81.37 and closed at 82.195 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.20 53.80 54.09 54.07 Prev. day -0.1 0.0 0.27 0.24 WoW -0.5 1.1 -0.36 -0.40

as on May 3, 2013 MoM -0.5 1.8 -1.19 -1.23 YoY 3.4 -0.9 0.69 0.67

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated by more than 1 percent. The currency appreciated on account of cut in the repo and reverse repo rates by the central banks of the country. Further, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks also supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX acted as positive factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a high of 53.63 in the last week and closed at 53.80 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,606.30 crores rd ($483.38 million) as on 3 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.63,642.70 crores ($11,793.70 million) till 3rd May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of positive services PMI data from the country along with cut in interest rates by the RBI will also support an upside in the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for May 6, 2013 Support 53.90/53.78 Resistance 54.20/54.35

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 6, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week as a result of European Central Bank (ECB) cutting the interest rates by 25 bps coupled with statement from ECB President signaling that bank is ready for negative deposits rate. Further, favorable economic data from the region, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. However, rise in the Euro Zone unemployment rate capped sharp gains in the Euro. European Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.2 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.2 percent a month ago. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3242 and closed at 1.3113 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments. Further, expectation of favorable service PMI from Spain and Italy may support currency to gain strength. However, expectation of rise in Spanish unemployment change may cap sharp upside in the currency or even reversal may be seen. Investors will keep an eye on ECB president Draghi Speech.

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3113 70.50 71.0 Prev. day 0.4 -0.3 -0.01

as on May 3, 2013 WoW 0.7 0.6 0.37 MoM 1.0 1.1 1.13 YoY -0.3 0.62

71.0

-0.01

0.39

1.13

0.62

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for May 6, 2013 Support 70.60/70.30 Resistance 71.20/71.40 Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5571 83.775 84.06 Prev. day 0.24 0.214 0.14 WoW 0.6 -0.56 0.22 MoM 1.6 1.66 1.62 YoY -3.8 -3.13 -3.21

GBP (% change)

as on May 3, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.6 percent on the back of favorable economic data from the country. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. UKs Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.5 points to 52.9-mark in April as against a rise of 52.4-level in March. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5604 in the last week and closed at 1.5571 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of weak dollar index coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 6, 2013 Support 83.85/83.60 Resistance 84.25/84.50

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

84.07

0.17

0.25

1.64

-3.18

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 6, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the country. The Yen touched a weekly low of 99.26 and closed at 99.02 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for May 6, 2013 Support 55.05/54.90 Resistance 55.35/55.50 Last 99.02 0.5434 55.20 55.20 Prev day 1.1 -1.11 -0.51 -0.49 as on May 3, 2013 WoW 1.0 -2.02 0.42 0.40 MoM 1.5 -7.29 -5.78 -5.81 YoY 23.5 -18.38 -17.41 -17.40

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 6, 2013

Indicator Bank Holiday Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Bank Holiday Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ECB President Draghi Speaks Country Japan Euro UK UK Euro Euro Euro Euro Time (IST) All Day 12:30pm 6 9
th th

Actual -

Forecast 17.1K 0.2% 45.8 46.3 -0.1% -

Previous -5.0K 0.2% 45.3 45.5 -0.3% -

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

All Day 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:30pm 6:30pm

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