5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory

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How do you decIde wIeLIer or noL Lo buy LIuL Lrendy ILem? WIen Is IL IusIIon Iorwurd Lo udopL u Lrend? How do you know
wIen you've "mIssed LIe bouL," so Lo speuk?
n 1q6z, EvereLL Rogers puL IorLI LIe Iumous LIeory oI dIIIusIon oI InnovuLIons. AccordIng Lo Rogers' LIeory, u gIven
InnovuLIon (or recycIed InnovuLIon us oILen Is LIe cuse In IusIIon) wIII go LIrougI u process oI dIIIusIon In LIe popuIuLIon
over LIme. TIIs process wIII proceed In pIuses us LIe IIve Lypes oI consumers udopL LIe producL. TIe IIrsL Lo udopL LIe
InnovuLIon wIII be LIe "InnovuLors" (enLIusIusLs), or ubouL z.% oI LIe popuIuLIon. Once LIe "InnovuLors" Iuve udopLed
LIe InnovuLIon, LIe eurIy udopLers wIII sLurL Lo pIck up on IL. Once uccepLunce reucIes u cerLuIn IeveI, usuuIIy beLween
und zo percenL, LIere wIII be u LukeoII und LIe producL wIII sweep LIe eurIy und IuLe mujorILIes. TIe IusL Lo udopL LIe
InnovuLIon wIII be LIe Iuggurds. EvenLuuIIy LIe InnovuLIon wIII reucI suLuruLIon.
Roers :pp
TIe LIeory oI dIIIusIon oI InnovuLIons Is oILen useIuI In undersLundIng Iow new LecInoIogIes spreud LIrougI popuIuLIons.
IIke Lo LIInk oI Lrends In IusIIon LIIs wuy.
WIen we consIder u specIIIc Lrendy IusIIon ILem, we cun sImpIy IdenLIIy wIIcI sLuge oI dIIIusIon un ILem Is In uL presenL,
or we cun IIIusLruLe LIe enLIre process up Lo LIe currenL sLuge. IIke Lo muke u menLuI mup oI LIe dIIIusIon oI u gIven Lrend
In IusIIon beIore decIde wIeLIer or noL Lo udopL IL.
To do LIIs, IInd IL Is IeIpIuI Lo druw on LIe Ideus oI MuIcoIm GIudweII us weII. MuIcoIm GIudweII drew InspIruLIon Ior
The Tippin Point Irom Rogers' work. n The Tippin Point, GIudweII puLs IorLI severuI Ideus ubouL Iow u gIven
InnovuLIon or producL reucIes crILIcuI muss und "LIps," becomIng un epIdemIc (I.e. sweepIng LIe mujorILIes und evenLuuIIy
LIe Iuggurds). He descrIbes cerLuIn ucLors wIo ure InsLrumenLuI In cuusIng producLs Lo reucI u LukeoII poInL und uppIIes
IIs LIeoreLIcuI Irumework Lo LIe IusIpuppy--u mujor IusIIon Lrend oI LIe qos. WIen LIInk oI LIe dIIIusIon oI IusIIon
Lrends In Lerms oI Rogers' LIeory, IInd LIuL one oI LIese Lypes oI ucLors wIo we cun observe cuusIng epIdemIcs Lo LIp Is
LIose wIo MuIcoIm Lerms "connecLors," or peopIe wIo Iuve IIgI vIsIbIIILy und LIus InIIuence LIe musses. CeIebrILIes ure
LIe cIussIc connecLors. GoIng buck Lo LIIs Ideu oI GIudweII's IeIps me menLuIIy mup u Lrend uIong LIe Rogers beII curve.
To IIIusLruLe LIe Ideus descrIbed Iere, IeL's IIrsL consIder u IusIIon Lrend wIIcI Ius jusL ubouL reucIed suLuruLIon, und LIen
we'II consIder u Lrend LIuL Ius yeL Lo LIp.
TIe FRZER\ERRW Ius jusL ubouL IIL suLuruLIon us u Lrend In IusIIon. recuII seeIng LIe PIerre Hurdy scntics on DurIu
Werbowy In un edILorIuI In LIe December zooq Issue oI PurIs Vogue. Cowboy booLs sLurLed Lo become popuIur In eurIy
zoo, und LIe eurIy udopLers und eurIy mujorILy sLurLed Lo snup LIem up. However, LIey dId noL reucI u LIppIng poInL unLII
wIen depurLmenL sLores IIke NordsLrom, BIoomIngduIes, eL uI. oIIered u Iurge seIecLIon oI LIe booLs sLurLIng In IuLe
Summer oI zoo. nLeresLIngIy enougI, LIe depurLmenL sLores mude cowboy booLs reudIIy uvuIIubIe u Iew monLIs uILer
5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory
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LIey sLurLed beIng seen on u number oI ceIebrILIes. Indsuy oIun, NIcoIe RIcIIe, und MIscIu
BurLon, Lo nume u Iew, were pIoLogrupIed In LIeIr cowboy booLs us eurIy us Muy zoo. TIIs
wouId suggesL LIuL ceIebrILIes ure reuIIy key drIvers In generuLIng demund Ior u producL In
IusIIon, und In persuudIng Iurge reLuIIers IIke NordsLrom's Lo suppIy LIem Lo LIe mujorILy. TIe
Lrend conLInued Lo spreud LIrougI LIe mujorILy us bIg reLuIIers reuIIy pusIed LIe booLs Ior LIe
zoo IoIIduy seuson und even In eurIy zooo6. Cowboy booLs ure sLIII mukIng LIeIr wuy Lo LIe
Iuggurds us LIey ure sLIII beIng soId (LIougI In smuIIer numbers) In depurLmenL sLores und on
sILes IIke VIcLorIu's SecreL.
Now IeL's consIder u Lrend wIIcI Ius spreud Lo InnovuLors und some eurIy udopLers buL Ius yeL Lo sweep LIe mujorILy: Iuce-
up R[IRUGVKRHV Ior women. cun'L suy 've been IoIIowIng LIIs one cIoseIy us IL does noL uppeuI sLrongIy Lo me us oI yeL
(perIups IL wIII grow on me), buL 've noLIced LIem In IusIIon sIows und on IusIIon "InnovuLors" Ior severuI monLIs.
AbouL u monLI or Lwo ugo suw u pIoLogrupI oI KuLe Moss weurIng LIem, und yesLerduy suw Mury KuLe OIsen
pIoLogrupIed In u puIr. Mury KuLe OIsen, wIIIe u IusIIon InnovuLor In Ier own rIgIL, Is uIso u mujor connecLor. KuLe
Moss connecLs Lo mucI oI LIe eurIy mujorILy, buL wouId LIInk Mury KuLe Ius u brouder InIIuence In LIe generuI
popuIuLIon. MHO, LIe IIkIIIood LIuL oxIords wIII LIp Ius jusL Increused sIgnIIIcunLIy.

NoLe: Lo see uny oI LIe Imuges In LIIs posL Iurger, jusL cIIck LIem.
5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory
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So Iow Lo decIde II IL's IusIIon Iorwurd Lo udopL u Lrend uL LIIs momenL In LIme? (IrsL LIIngs IIrsL, II you ure LoLuIIy uverse
Lo u Lrendy ILem Irom LIe sLurL, you don'L Iuve Lo boLIer wILI LIInkIng ubouL ILs dIIIusIon on LIe Rogers curve. or exumpIe,
IuLed Uggs Irom LIe momenL suw LIem und no umounL oI peer InIIuence couId cIunge LIIs; mude up my mInd never Lo
udopL LIe Lrend beIore even LIInkIng ubouL ILs dIIIusIon.) BuL IeL's ussume LIere's u Lrend you ure consIderIng udopLIng.
DeLermIne wIere you LIInk LIe Lrend Is on LIe Rogers beII curve. Once you've done LIIs, you cun decIde II you wunL Lo
udopL LIe Lrend or noL bused on (u) Iow mucI you cure ubouL beIng "uIeud oI LIe curve," (b) wIeLIer or noL you Iuve
uccess Lo LIe ILem or even LIe resources Lo ucquIre IL, und u wIoIe seL oI personuI cIurucLerIsLIcs LIuL Iope Lo expIore In u
IuLure posL.
NeedIess Lo suy, percepLIons oI LIe dIIIusIon processes oI Lrends vury u IoL by IndIvIduuI. predIcL LIuL pIenLy oI peopIe wIII
dIsugree wILI my descrIpLIon oI LIe dIIIusIon oI cowboy booLs becuuse our percepLIons oI LIe process wIII dIIIer. (By LIe
wuy, II your percepLIon oI LIIs dIIIusIon dIIIers sIgnIIIcunLIy Irom my own wouId Iove Lo LuIk ubouL IL wILI you. L's
IuscInuLIng Lo know wIuL oLIers' percepLIons ure; LIey oILen InIIuence our own.)
'II be muppIng some Lrends LIIs wuy In IuLure posLs. NexL up: skInny punLs.
Muy z;, zoo6 In LIeory ] PermuIInk
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TruckBuck UR Ior LIIs enLry:
ILLp:JJwww.Lypepud.comJservIcesJLruckbuckJ6uood8q6zqI6qezood8qq1I;d6eI
IsLed beIow ure IInks Lo webIogs LIuL reIerence usIIon Trends + DIIIusIon TIeory:
&RPPHQWV
SkInny jeuns, dIIIused: ILLp:JJgoogIe.comJLrends?q=skInny+jeuns%zC+booLcuL+jeuns
PosLed by: PIII ] Muy z8, zoo6 uL 1o:o AM
AIso, wroLe u quIck posL expIuInIng Iow Lo pIck Lrends ouL oI LIe udopLIon curve: ILLp:JJmIIIIonuIresocIuIILe.comJ?p=1q
"ong sLory sIorL, cooIIunLIng Is u IIL-or-mIss LucLIc LIuL reIIes on IdenLIIyIng obscure buL InLeresLIng bILs oI cuILure wIereus
LrendspoLLIng Is besL done by spoLLIng memes LIuL Iuve uIreudy been Luken up by eurIy udopLers und ure on LIeIr wuy InLo LIe
muInsLreum."
PosLed by: PIII ] Muy z8, zoo6 uL 1o:z AM
Iope you uren'L suggesLIng LIuL goL InspIruLIon Irom you uguIn. Becuuse LIuL Is ubsoIuLeIy noL LIe cuse. JusL mukIng sure.
PosLed by: EIsu ] Muy z8, zoo6 uL 11:1 AM
JusL uddIng Lo LIe dIscussIon :)
"By LIe wuy, II your percepLIon oI LIIs dIIIusIon dIIIers sIgnIIIcunLIy Irom my own wouId Iove Lo LuIk ubouL IL wILI you. L's
IuscInuLIng Lo know wIuL oLIers' percepLIons ure; LIey oILen InIIuence our own."
5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory
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PosLed by: PIII ] Muy z8, zoo6 uL 11:zo AM
I you were jusL beIng IrIendIy, LIunks Ior LIe IInks.
PosLed by: EIsu ] Muy z8, zoo6 uL 11:z1 AM
As u Iun oI MuIcoIm GIudweII und IusIIon, LIIs wus u greuL reud. recuII u IrIend oI mIne, un InnovuLor, IuvIng cowboy booLs In
eurIy zooq. IIked Iers buL sIe'd Iound LIem In u LIrIIL sLore und LIere wus no equIvuIenL Lo unywIere. By LIe LIme LIey were
wIdeIy uvuIIubIe, wus sIck oI LIem. However, Iove LIe oxIords goL ubouL u monLI ugo Irom umuzon oI uII pIuces. L's greuL Lo see
Iow dIIIusIon uIIecLs IusIIon cIoIces (Ie: suLuruLIon vs rurILy.)
PosLed by: AccounL DeIeLed ] OcLober 1q, zoo6 uL o:o8 PM
uccIdenLuIIy cume ucross LIIs posL wIIIe googIIng LIIngs regurdIng my beIoved oxIords obsessIon-IoI-und Iuve Lo suy, LIIs Is
probubIy one oI your besL posLs ever.
PosLed by: SLeIIu Kue ] ebruury z;, zoo; uL oq:1z AM
wIuL Is your opInIon ubouL udopLIon oI IusIIon und dIIIusIon LIeory wILIIn und beLween cuILures und nuLIons...????
PosLed by: monIku mue ] AugusL 1z, zoo; uL oz:o PM
PosLed by: monIku mue ] AugusL 1z, zoo; uL oz:z PM
PIeuse Luke u Iook uL my urLbIog Ior revenue opporLunILy
ILLp:JJurLundIuILI-joIn.bIogspoL.comJ
PosLed by: Lom ] November o, zoo8 uL o1:1q PM
TIunks Ior sIurIng LIIs Lo us, enjoyed reudIng LIIs, sucI un InIormuLIve posL. Iope Lo reud more urLIcIes ubouL IusIIon soon.
LIunks.
-mIkee-
PosLed by: wIoIesuIe kIds cIoLIIng ] AugusL z, zooq uL o1:o; AM
Iuve u docLoruI semInur cIuss und LIIs Is beIng presenLed ...wow!
PosLed by: Andy ] OcLober o8, zooq uL o8:q AM
5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory
aestheticspluseconomics.typepad.com/aesthetics_economics/2006/05/fashion_trends_.html 5/6
WIuLs LIe currenL IusIIon Lrends Ior zo1o?
uny websILes ILs u projecL
PosLed by: generIc vIugru ] MurcI 11, zo1o uL 11: AM
TIe quuIILy Is very good, cun enLer our websILe.
PosLed by: cIrIsLIun IoubouLIn ] MurcI zz, zo1o uL oq:; AM
RepIIcu jerseys ure becomIng rupIdIy popuIur us reguIur uLLIre. And LIereIore, you wIII noLIce muny Leenugers donnIng u BIII RusseII
or Oscur RoberLson jersey In pubs, coIIeges und dIscos. n IucL,|urI= ILLp:JJwww.jerseysIeugue.com|nII jerseys|JurI|even
IndIvIduuIs wIo ure noL nbu Iuns Iuve sLurLed weurIng cIeup |urI= ILLp:JJwww.jerseysIeugue.com|mIb jerseys|JurI| sLIese jerseys
us u sLyIe sLuLemenL.
PosLed by: nII jerseys ] MurcI zz, zo1o uL o:oo AM
'm so InLo IusIIon, Irom my dog Lo my IIvIng room und up Lo my cIoseL jusL Iove IusIIon.
PosLed by: kumugru ] AprII z;, zo1o uL o:q PM
WIuL u greuL posL. AII oI LIe projecLs Iook greuL! you muke IL Iook so sImpIe Lo muke LIIs purse LIuL 'II Iuve Lo Lry IL myseII! TIunks!
PosLed by: Jorduns 16 ] Muy 1o, zo1o uL o:z AM
"LIIs Is one oI LIe mosL exceIIenL resourceIuI websILes oI ILs kInd.
enjoy reudIng IL every duy.SInn repIIcu wuLcIes,ILLp:JJwww.wuLcIesIux.comJsInn-wuLcIes.ILmI
wIII be buck."
PosLed by: repIIcu wuLcIes ] JuIy zq, zo1o uL o:6 AM
Iove menLuI ubour und pIysIcuI Iubor, perIups even suId, Iove munuuI Iubor. WIen In LIe pIysIcuI Iubor In uny good
undersLundIng, combIned LogeLIer In LIe Iunds und bruIn, IeeI more specIuI.Do you LIInk so?
PosLed by: AsIcs sIoes ] SepLember 18, zo1o uL o6:oq AM
TIe posL Is very InIormuLIve. Iook Iorwurd Lo more posLs.TIunks
PosLed by: BooLs_Iub ] OcLober oq, zo1o uL o:q AM
5/6/13 Aesthetics + Economics: Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory
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ove LIIs movIe us weII us LIe serIuI. ReuIIy Iunny, LIunks Ior sIurIng IL wILI us.
PosLed by: yIwu murkeL ] OcLober 1o, zo1o uL 1o:qz PM
L`s InLeresLIng und Iun Lo see LIIngs Irom LIe oLIer sIde oI LIe gender coIn. L`s oILen noL Loo LerrIbIy dIIIerenL.TIunks, IrIend.
ILLp:JJwww.suprusIoesweb.com
ILLp:JJwww.nIkedunkII.com
PosLed by: suprusIoesweb ] Junuury o1, zo11 uL 1o:q AM
Iove menLuI ubour und pIysIcuI Iubor, perIups even suId, Iove munuuI Iubor.
PosLed by: SLeeIers jerseys ] ebruury 1o, zo11 uL 1o:6 PM
I you were jusL beIng IrIendIy, LIunks Ior LIe IInks.
PosLed by: DIscounLed MBT SIoes ] AprII o;, zo11 uL o8:z PM
GreuL pIece oI urLIcIe. L expIuIns so mucI ubouL LIe LopIc. sIouId suy IL Is u deLuIIed urLIcIe. TuIks ubouL u vurIeLy oI LIIngs -
someLIIng wIIcI never LIougIL couId exIsL. WIuL Iound dIIIerenL In your urLIcIe Is LIe wuy you Iuve gone ubouL Lo expIuIn LIe
LopIc In u sImpIIsLIc wuy.
PosLed by: euLIer JuckeLs ] AprII 1q, zo11 uL o8:o AM
TIe commenLs Lo LIIs enLry ure cIosed.