Traffic Engineering

Traffic Engineering Traffic Engineering

One billion+ terminals in voice network alone
Plus data, video, fax, finance, etc.
Imagine all users want service simultaneouslyits not even
nearly possible (despite our common intuition)
In practice, the actual amount of equipment provisioned is vastly In practice, the actual amount of equipment provisioned is vastly
less than would support all users simultaneously
And yet, by and large, we get the impression of phone and data
networks that work very well! networks that work very well!
How is this possible?
Traffic theory !! y
Traffic Engineering Traffic Engineering Trade Trade- -offs offs
Design number of transmission paths, or radio channels?
How many required normally?
What if there is an overload?
Design switching and routing mechanisms
How do we route efficiently? How do we route efficiently?
E.g.
High-usage trunk groups -Trunk group that is the primary direct route
between two switching systems. The group is provided with an
alternate route for overflow traffic in order to provide an acceptable
level of blocking.
Overflow trunk groups
Where should traffic flows be combined or kept separate? Where should traffic flows be combined or kept separate?
Design network topology
Number and sizing of switching nodes and locations
N b d i i f t i i t d l ti Number and sizing of transmission systems and locations
Survivability
Characterization of Telephone Traffic Characterization of Telephone Traffic
Calling Rate Calling Rate () also called arrival rate, or attempts rate, etc.
Average number of calls initiated per unit time (e.g. attempts per g p ( g p p
hour)
Each call arrival is independent of other calls (we assume)
Call attempt arrivals are random in time
Until otherwise, we assume a large calling group or source pool
T

=
If receive oo calls from a terminal in time TT:
T
If receive o calls from mmterminals in time T:
T

=
g
Group calling rate
T m
=

Per terminal Group calling rate Per terminal

calling rate
Characterization of Telephone Traffic (2) Characterization of Telephone Traffic (2)
Calling rate assumption:
Number of calls in time T is
Poisson distributed:

e
x

In our case
... 2 , 1 , 0
!
) ( =

= x
x
e
x p

T =
x No of Call Arrivals
average call arrival rate
Ti b t ll i ti ll di t ib t d Time between calls is -ve exponentially distributed:
s s =

t e t f
t
0 ) (

1
= mean

In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution is a discrete probability

distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a
fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate
Class Question: What do these observations about telephone traffic imply about
the nature of the traffic sources?
p g
and independently of the time since the last event.
--ve Exponential Holding Times ve Exponential Holding Times
Implies the Memory Implies the Memory- -less property less property
Prob. a call last another minute is independent of how long the call has
already lasted! Call forgets that it has already survived to time T
1
a eady asted Ca o gets t at t as a eady su ed to t e
1
( ) ( ) t T P T T t T T P > = > + >
1 1
( )
Proof:
( )
( )
( )
1
1 1
1 1


T T P
T T t T T P
T T t T T P
>
> + >
= > + >
( )
( )
1
1
T T P
t T T P
>
+ >
=
h T
h t T
e
e
/
/ ) (
1
1

+
=
h t
e t T P
/
) (

= >
Recall:
h T
h t h T
e
e e
/
/ /
1
1

=
h t
e
/
=
( ) t T P > =
e t T P ) ( = >
In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution (a.k.a. negative
exponential distribution) is a family of continuous probability distributions. It describes
the time between events in a Poisson process.
Characterization of Telephone Traffic (3) Characterization of Telephone Traffic (3)
Holding Time Holding Time (hh)
Mean length of time a call lasts
Probability of lasting time t or more is also ve exponential in
nature:
0 ) (
/
> = >

t e t T P
h t
Real voice calls fits very closely to the negative exponential form
0 0 ) ( < = > t t T P
Real voice calls fits very closely to the negative exponential form
above
As non-voice calls begin to dominate, more and more calls have a
constant holding time characteristic
Departure Rate Departure Rate ():
h
1
=
Some Real Holding Time Data Some Real Holding Time Data
Traffic Traffic Volume (V) Volume (V)
h V =o
o = # calls in time period T
h h ldi ti
h V =o
h = mean holding time
V = volume of calls in time period T
In N. America this is historically usually expressed in terms of ccs ccs:
Hundred call seconds
cc cc ss
1 ccs is volume of traffic equal to:
one ci c it b s fo 100 seconds o
Centum Call Seconds
one circuit busy for 100 seconds, or
two circuits busy for 50 seconds, or
100 circuits busy for one second, etc.
Traffic Traffic Intensity (A) Intensity (A)
Also called traffic flow traffic flow or simply traffic traffic.
o = # calls in time period T
h
o = # calls in time period T o = # calls in time period T
V
o = # calls in time period T o # calls in time period T
h = mean holding time
T = time period of observations
h
A
o
=
T
h =

=
o # calls in time period T
h = mean holding time
T = time period of observations
o # calls in time period T
h = mean holding time
T = time period of observations
R ll R ll
V
=
T
R ll
o # calls in time period T
h = mean holding time
T = time period of observations pp
= calling rate
p
= calling rate
= departure rate
T
o
=
Recall:
h
1
=
Recall:
V h o =
Recall:
p
= calling rate
= departure rate
Units:
ccs/ hour ccs/ hour, or
dimensionless (if h and T are in the same units of time)
V = call volume
dimensionless (if h and T are in the same units of time)
Erlang Erlang unit
The The Erlang Erlang
Dimensionless unit of traffic intensity
Named after Danish mathematician A. K. Erlang (1878-1929) Named after Danish mathematician A. K. Erlang (1878 1929)
Usually denoted by symbol EE.
1 Erlang is equivalent to traffic intensity that keeps: g q y p
one circuit busy 100% of the time, or
two circuits busy 50% of the time, or
four circuits busy 25% of the time, etc. y ,
26 Erlangs is equivalent to traffic intensity that keeps :
26 circuits busy 100% of the time, or
52 circuits busy 50% of the time or 52 circuits busy 50% of the time, or
104 circuits busy 25% of the time, etc.
Class Class
Could 4 E be produced as a traffic intensity by:
16 sources? (What is the utilization?)
4 sources (same)
1 source?
What is special about the traffic intensity if it pertains to one
source or terminal only?
Erlang (2) Erlang (2)
How does the Erlang Erlang unit correspond to ccs ccs?
100 call seconds
0.027E =
100 call seconds
1 ccs hour
1 hour 60 min hr 60 sec min

=
3600 call seconds
60 min hr 60 sec min
Percentage of time a terminal is busy is equivalent to the traffic
1E =
3600 call seconds
36 ccs hour
1 hour 60 min hr 60 sec min

=
60 min hr 60 sec min
Percentage of time a terminal is busy is equivalent to the traffic
generated by that terminal in Erlangs, or
Average number of circuits in a group busy at any time
Typical usages:
residence phone -> 0.02 E
business phone -> 0 15 E business phone > 0.15 E
interoffice trunk -> 0.70 E
Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost
Offered Traffic Offered Traffic (TT
O O
) equivalent to Traffic Intensity (AA)
Takes into account all attempted calls, whether blocked or not,
d h d h ld and uses their expected holding times
Also Carried Traffic Carried Traffic (TT
C C
) and Lost Traffic Lost Traffic (TT
L L
)
Consider a group of 150 terminals each with 10% utilization (or Consider a group of 150 terminals, each with 10% utilization (or
in other words, 0.1 E per source) and dedicated service dedicated service:
1 1
each terminal has an
1
150
1
150
outgoing trunk
(i.e. terminal:trunk ratio = 1:1)
150 150
T
O
= A = 150 x 0.10 E = 15.0 E
T
C
= 150 x 0.10 E = 15.0 E
T 0 E T
L
= 0 E
Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost (2) Traffic Offered, Carried, and Lost (2)
A = T
O
= T
C
+ T
L
Traffic
Lost
Traffic
Intensity
Offered
Traffic
Carried
Traffic
Traffic
T = T x Prob Blocking (or congestion) T
L
= T
O
x Prob. Blocking (or congestion)
= P(B) x T
O
= P(B) x A
Circuit Utilization Circuit Utilization () - also called Circuit Efficiency Circuit Efficiency
proportion of time a circuit is busy, or
average proportion of time each circuit in a group is busy
C
T
=
# of Trunks # of Trunks
Grade of Service (gos) Grade of Service (gos)
In general, the term used for some traffic design objective
Indicative of customer satisfaction Indicative of customer satisfaction
In systems where blocked calls are cleared, usually use:
L L
T T
( )
L L
O L C
T T
( )
T T +T
P B gos = = =
Typical gos objectives: Typical gos objectives:
in busy hour, range from 0.2% to 5% for local calls, however
generally no more that 1%
long distance calls often slightly higher long distance calls often slightly higher
In systems with queuing, gos often defined as the probability of
d l di ifi l th f ti delay exceeding a specific length of time
Grade of Service Related Terms Grade of Service Related Terms
Busy Hour Busy Hour
One hour period during which traffic volume or call attempts is the
h h ll d d highest overall during any given time period
Peak (or Daily) Busy Hour Peak (or Daily) Busy Hour
Busy hour for each day, usually varies from day to day y y, y y y
Busy Season Busy Season
3 months (not consecutive) with highest average daily busy hour
High Day Busy Hour (HDBH) High Day Busy Hour (HDBH)
One hour period during busy season with the highest load
Grade of Service Related Terms (2) Grade of Service Related Terms (2)
Average Busy Season Busy Hour (ABSBH) Average Busy Season Busy Hour (ABSBH)
One hour period with highest average daily busy hour during the
b
Average Busy Season Busy Hour (ABSBH) Average Busy Season Busy Hour (ABSBH)
One hour period with highest average daily busy hour during the
bbusy season busy season
For example, assume days shown below make up the busy season:
1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr Mean
00:00 to 01:00 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5
0100t 0200 12 18 16 13 10 16 11 11 10 12 17 20 20 18 13 17 14 19 11 14 15 15
Highest Highest ABSBH ABSBH
01:00 to 02:00 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5
02:00 to 03:00 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.4
03:00 to 04:00 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.4
04:00 to 05:00 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.6 2.2 1.5 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.7 2.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.3 1.9
05:00 to 06:00 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.0
06:00 to 07:00 1.7 2.2 1.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0
07:00 to 08:00 2.0 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.4
08:00 to 09:00 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.5 3.0
09:00 to 10:00 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.5
10:00 to 11:00 5.0 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.1 3.0 4.0 4.9 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.0 4.6 4.9 4.4 5.0 4.7 3.6 3.8 4.3
11:00 to 12:00 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 5.0 4.6 5.0 4.7 3.2 3.4 5.0 4.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.3
12:00 to 13:00 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.1 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.6 4.1
13:00 to 14:00 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.8 3.2 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.7 3.6 3.6 4.8 4.2 4.8 4.9 4.4 3.3 3.0 4.2
14:00to15:00 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 3.3 3.2 4.2 14:00 to 15:00 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.9 4.5 3.5 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 3.3 3.2 4.2
15:00 to 16:00 4.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 4.5 3.8 3.2 4.1 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.5 3.7 3.3 4.2
16:00 to 17:00 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.0 3.3 4.0 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.5
17:00 to 18:00 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.0
18:00 to 19:00 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.1
19:00 to 20:00 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.1
20:00 to 21:00 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.9 3.0 2.1 2.2 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
21:00to22:00 21 16 23 16 22 21 24 19 16 21 24 17 18 24 18 19 22 19 22 22 16 20
Note: Red indicates
daily busy hour
21:00 to 22:00 2.1 1.6 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.0
22:00 to 23:00 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.0
23:00 to 00:00 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5
Hourly Traffic Variations Hourly Traffic Variations
Daily Traffic Variations Daily Traffic Variations
Seasonal Traffic Variations Seasonal Traffic Variations
Seasonal Traffic Variations (2) Seasonal Traffic Variations (2)
Typical Call Attempts Breakdown Typical Call Attempts Breakdown
Calls Completed - 70.7%
Called Party No Answer - 12.7% Called Party No Answer 12.7%
Called Party Busy - 10.1%
Call Abandoned - 2.6%
Dialing Error - 1.6%
Number Changed or Disconnected - 0.4%
Blockage or Failure - 1.9%
3 Types of Blocking Models 3 Types of Blocking Models
Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC BCC)
Blocked calls leave system and do not return
Good approximation for calls in 1
st
choice trunk group
Blocked Calls Held (BCH BCH)
Blocked calls remain in the system for the amount of time it would Blocked calls remain in the system for the amount of time it would
have normally stayed for
If a server frees up, the call picks up in the middle and continues
Not a good model of real world behaviour (mathematical g (
approximation only)
Tries to approximate call reattempt efforts
Blocked Calls Wait (BCW BCW) Blocked Calls Wait (BCW BCW)
Blocked calls enter a queue until a server is available
When a server becomes available, the calls holding time begins
Traffic formula selection Decision tree Traffic formula selection Decision tree
Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC) Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC)
10 minutes
2 sources
Source #1
Offered Traffic 1 3
Total Traffic Offered:
Source #2
Offered Traffic 2 4
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
Only one server
Traffic
1
st
call arrives and is served
2
nd
call arrives but
server already busy
Traffic
Carried 1
server already busy
2
2
nd
call is cleared
1
3
rd
call arrives and is served
3 4
Total Traffic Carried:
4
th
call arrives and is served
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.5 E
Blocked Calls Held (BCH) Blocked Calls Held (BCH)
10 minutes
2 sources
Source #1
Offered Traffic 1 3
Total Traffic Offered:
Source #2
Offered Traffic 2 4
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
Traffic
Only one server
1
st
call arrives and is served
2
nd
call arrives but server busy
Traffic
Carried 1 2 1 2 3 4
2
nd
call is served
3
rd
call arrives and is served
Total Traffic Carried:
2
nd
call is held until server free
4
th
call arrives and is served
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.6 E
Blocked Calls Wait (BCW) Blocked Calls Wait (BCW)
10 minutes
2 sources
Source #1
Offered Traffic 1 3
Total Traffic Offered:
Source #2
Offered Traffic 2 4
T
O
= 0.4 E + 0.3 E
T
O
= 0.7 E
1
st
ll i di d
Only one server
Traffic
1
st
call arrives and is served
2
nd
call arrives but server busy
2
nd
call waits until server free
Traffic
Carried 1 2
2
nd
call served
1 2
3
rd
call arrives, waits, and
is served
3
th
ll i i d
4
Total Traffic Carried:
4
th
call arrives, waits, and
is served
Total Traffic Carried:
T
C
= 0.7 E
Blocking Probabilities Blocking Probabilities
System must be in a Steady State Steady State
Also called state of statistical equilibrium
Arrival Rate Arrival Rate of new calls equals Departure Rate Departure Rate of
disconnecting calls
Why?
If ll i f h h d ? If calls arrive faster that they depart?
If calls depart faster than they arrive?
Binomial Distribution Model Binomial Distribution Model
Assumptions:
mmsources
AAErlangs of offered traffic
per source: T
O
= A/ m
probability that a specific source is busy: P(B) = A/ m
Can use Binomial Distribution to give the probability that a
certain number (kk) of those m sources is busy:
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
k P

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 ) (
k m k
m
A
m
A
k m k
m

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

= 1
)! ( !
!
m m k
. \ . \
. \
m m k m k
. \ . \
. \
)! ( !
Binomial Distribution Model (2) Binomial Distribution Model (2)
What does it mean if we only have N servers N servers (N<m)?
We can have at most N busy sources at a time
What about the probability of blocking?
All N servers must be busy before we have blocking
) ( ) ( N k P B P > = ) ( ... ) 1 ( ) ( m k P N k P N k P = + + + = + = =

| | | |
| |
m
k m k
A A
m
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
k P

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 ) (

=
|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
m
N k
m
A
m
A
k
m
1
| |
k k
Remember:

|
.
|

\
|

|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
1
0
1 1
N
k
k m k
m
A
m
A
k
m
Binomial Distribution Model (3) Binomial Distribution Model (3)
What does it mean if k>N?
Impossible to have more sources busy than servers to serve them
Doesnt accurately represent reality
In reality, P(k>N) = 0
In this model, we still assign P(k>N) = A/m
Acts as good model of real behaviour
Some people call back, some dont
Which type of blocking model is the Binomial Distribution? yp g
Blocked Calls Held (BCH)
Time Congestions Time Congestions vs. vs. Call Congestion Call Congestion
Time Congestion
Proportion of time a system is congested (all servers busy)
Probability of blocking from point of view of servers
Call Congestion
Probability that an arriving call is blocked Probability that an arriving call is blocked
Probability of blocking from point of view of calls
Why/How are they different?
Time Congestion:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > =
Call Congestion:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > = ) ( ) (
Probability that all
servers are busy.
) ( ) (
Probability that there are
more sources wanting service
th th than there are servers.
Poisson Traffic Model Poisson Traffic Model
Poisson approximates Binomial with large m large mand small A/ m small A/ m
k

!
) (
k
e
k P
k

=
= Mean # of
Busy Sources
Note:
) ( lim Binomial Poisson
m
=
What is ? What is ?
Mean number of busy sources
= A
!
) (
k
A e
k P
k A
=
Poisson Traffic Model (2) Poisson Traffic Model (2)
Now we can calculate probability of blocking:
) ( ) ( N k P B P > = ) ( ... ) 1 ( ) ( + + + + = P N P N P
Remember:
A
k A

k A
A e

A
k
A
!
) (
k
A e
k P
k A
=
=
=
N k
k!

=
=
N k
A
e
k!
N
k
A
1
A
N
k
k
e
k
A

=

=
1
0
!
1
) ( ) ( A N P B P
Example:
) 10 7 ( P
) , ( ) ( A N P B P =
P = Poisson
A = Offered Traffic
) 10 , 7 ( P
Poisson Poisson P(B) with 10 E 10 E
offered to 7 servers 7 servers
N = # Servers
offered to 7 servers 7 servers
Traffic Tables Traffic Tables
Consider a 1% chance of blocking in a system with N=10 trunks
How much offered traffic can the system handle?
A
k
k
k
A
k
e
k
A
e
k
A

=

= =
9
0 10
!
1
!
01 . 0
How do we calculate A?
Very carefully, or
ff bl Use traffic tables
Traffic Tables (2) Traffic Tables (2)
P(B)=P(N,A) P(B)=P(N,A)
NN
AA
Traffic Tables (3) Traffic Tables (3)
P(N,A)=0.01 P(N,A)=0.01
N=10 N=10
A=4.14 E A=4.14 E
If system with N = 10 trunks If system with N = 10 trunks
has P(B) = 0.01: has P(B) = 0.01:
Systemcan handle Systemcan handle System can handle System can handle
Offered traffic (A) = 4.14 E Offered traffic (A) = 4.14 E
Poisson Traffic Tables Poisson Traffic Tables
P(N,A)=0.01 P(N,A)=0.01
N=10 N=10
A=4.14 E A=4.14 E
If system with N = 10 trunks If system with N = 10 trunks
has P(B) = 0.01: has P(B) = 0.01:
Systemcan handle Systemcan handle System can handle System can handle
Offered traffic (A) = 4.14 E Offered traffic (A) = 4.14 E
Efficiency of Large Groups Efficiency of Large Groups
What if there are N = 100 trunks?
Will they serve A = 10 x 4.14 E = 41.4 E with same P(B) = 1%?
No!
Traffic tables will show that A = 78.2 E!
Why will 10 times trunks serve almost 20 times traffic? Why will 10 times trunks serve almost 20 times traffic?
Called efficiency of large groups efficiency of large groups:
For N = 10 A = 4 14 E
efficiency % 4 41
14 . 4
= = =
A

For N = 10, A = 4.14 E

efficiency % 4 . 41
10
= = =
N

For N = 100, A = 78.2 E

efficiency % 2 . 78
100
2 . 78
= = =
N
A

100 N
The larger the trunk group, the greater the efficiency
TrafCalc Software TrafCalc Software
What if we need to calculate P(N,A) and not in traffic table?
TrafCalc TrafCalc: Custom-designed software
Calculates P(B) or A, or
Creates custom traffic tables
TrafCalc Software (2) TrafCalc Software (2)
How do we calculate P(32,20)?
TrafCalc Software (3) TrafCalc Software (3)
How do we calculate A for which P(32,A) = 0.01?
Erlang B Model Erlang B Model
More sophisticated model than Binomial or Poisson
Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC) Blocked Calls Cleared (BCC)
Good for calls that can reroute to alternate route if blocked
No approximation for reattempts if alternate route blocked too pp p
Derived using birth birth- -death process death process
See selected pages from Leonard Kleinrock, Queueing Systems
Volume1: Theory John Wiley & Sons 1975 Volume 1: Theory, John Wiley & Sons, 1975
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth- -Death Process Death Process
Consider infinitesimally small time oott during which only one
arrival or departure (or none) may occur
Let be the arrival rate from an infinite pool or sources
Let = 1/ h = 1/ h be the departure rate per call
N t if kk ll i t d t t i kk Note: if kk calls in system, departure rate is kk
Steady State Diagram:

Blockage
0 1 2 N-1 N

2 N (N-1) 3
Immediate Service
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth- -Death Process (2) Death Process (2)
Steady State (statistical equilibrium)
Rate of arrival is the same as rate of departure
Average rate a system enters a given state is equal to the average
rate at which the system leaves that state
Probability of moving

from state 1 to state 2?
PP
11
0 1 2 N-1 N

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N-1
P
N
2 N (N-1) 3
Probability of moving Probability of moving
from state 2 to state 1?
22PP
22
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth- -Death Process (3) Death Process (3)
0 1 2 N-1 N

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N-1
P
N
Set up balance equations:
2 N (N-1) 3
0 1
P P =
0 1
P P = 1 0
P P

=
0 1
P P
1 1 2 0
2 P P P P + = +
2 2 3 1
2 3 P P P P + = +
0 1
P P
1 2
2 P P =
2 3
3 P P =

2 1
2
P P

=
2
0
2
P

| |
=
|
\ .
3 3 4 2
3 4 P P P P + = +

1 k k
P k P =

\ .
3 2
3
P P

=
3
0
6
P

| |
=
|
\ .

1 1 2
( 1)
N N N N
N P P N P P

+ = +
N P P =
1 k k

P N P =

0
!
k
k
P
P
k

| |
=
|
\ .
1 N N
N P P

=
1 N N
P N P

=
! k
\ .
Erlang B Birth Erlang B Birth- -Death Process (4) Death Process (4)
Rule of Total Probability:
N
i
N
P | |
1
P =
0
!
k
k
P
P
k

| |
=
|
\ .
Recall:
0
1
N
i
i
P
=
=

0
0
!
N
i
P
i

=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
0
1
!
i
N
i
P
i

=
=
| |
|
\ .

1
k
| |
|
A h

= =
Recall:
k
A
0
!
1
!
k
i
N
i
k
P
i

=
|
\ .
=
| |
|
\ .

0
!
!
i N k
i
A
k
P
A
i
=
=

0
!
i
i
= \ .
For blocking, must be in state k = N:
( ) ( )
!
N
A
N
( ) ( , )
N
P B B N A P = =
B = Erlang B
N = # Servers
0
!
!
i
N
i
N
A
i
=
=

N = # Servers
A = Offered Traffic
Erlang B Traffic Table Erlang B Traffic Table
Example: In a BCC system with
m= sources, we can accept a
B(N,A)=0.001 B(N,A)=0.001
0.1% chance of blocking in the
nominal case of 40E offered traffic.
However, in the extreme case of a
20% overload we can accept a
B(N,A)=0.005 B(N,A)=0.005
20% overload, we can accept a
0.5% chance of blocking.
How many outgoing trunks do we
need?
A 40 E A 40 E
need?
A=40 E A=40 E
N=59 N=59
Nominal design: 59 trunks
AA~~48 E 48 E
Overload design: 64 trunks
N=64 N=64
Requirement: 64 trunks
Example (2) Example (2)
P(N,A)=0.01 P(N,A)=0.01
N=32 N=32
A=20.3 E A=20.3 E
P(N,A) & B(N,A) P(N,A) & B(N,A) -- High Blocking High Blocking
We recognize that Poisson and Erlang B models are only
approximations but which is better?
Compare them using a 4-trunk group offered A=10E
Erlang B Erlang B
(4 10) 0 64666 B
Poisson Poisson
(4 10) 0 98966 P (4,10) 0.64666 B =
(1 ( ))
C
T A P B =
10 (1 0.64666) =
3 533 T E
(4,10) 0.98966 P =
(1 ( ))
C
T A P B =
10 (1 0.98966) =
0 103 T E 3.533
C
T E =
3.533
0.88
4
= =
0.103
C
T E =
0.103
0.026
4
= =
4 4
How can 4 trunks handle 10E offered How can 4 trunks handle 10E offered
traffic and be busy only 2.6% of the time? traffic and be busy only 2.6% of the time?
P(N,A) & B(N,A) P(N,A) & B(N,A) -- High Blocking (2) High Blocking (2)
Obviously, the Poisson result is so far off that it is almost
meaningless as an approximation of the example.
4 servers offered enough traffic to keep 10 servers busy full time
(10E) should result in much higher utilization.
Erlang B result is more believable.
All 4 trunks are busy most of the time.
What if we extend the exercise by increasing A?
Erlang B result goes to 4E carried traffic Erlang B result goes to 4E carried traffic
Poisson result goes to 0E carried
Illustrates the failure of the Poisson model as valid for situations
with high blocking
Poisson only good approximation when low blocking
Use Erlang B if high blocking
Engset Distribution Model Engset Distribution Model
BCC model with small number of sources (m > N)
= mean departure rate per call mean departure rate per call
= mean arrival rate of a single source

k
= arrival rate if in the system is state k
Blockage

k
y

kk
= = (m (m- -k) k)
m (m-1) (m-2) [M-(N-2)] [m-(N-1)]
Blockage
0 1 2 N-1 N

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N-1
P
N
2 N (N-1) 3
Immediate Service
Engset Traffic Model (2) Engset Traffic Model (2)
Balance equations give:
k
1
0
!
!( )!
k
k
m
P P
k m k

| |
=
|

\ .
and
0
0
1
i
N
i
P
m
i

=
=
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .

therefore:
k
k
i
N
m
k
P
m

| | | |
| |
\ . \ .
=
| | | |
but can show that:
A
m A

0 i
m
i

=
| | | |
| |
\ . \ .

N
m
A
| |
| |
| |
( ) ( ) P B P k N = =
( , , )
i
N
m A N
E m N A
m
A
A i
| |

\ .
\ .
= =
| |
| |
| |
\ .
\ .

0 i
m A i
=
| |

\ .
\ .

E = Engset
Engset Traffic Table Engset Traffic Table
M = 30 sources M = 30 sources
# trunks (N) # trunks (N)
Traffic offered (A) Traffic offered (A)
P(B)=E(m,N,A) P(B)=E(m,N,A)
N=10 N=10
Example: 30 terminals each provide
AA= =4.8 E 4.8 E
P(B) 0 01 P(B) 0 01
Example: 30 terminals each provide
0.16 Erlangs to a concentrator with
a goal of less than 1% blocking.
How many outgoing trunks do we
P(B)<0.01 P(B)<0.01
y g g
need?
A = 30 x 0.16 = 4.8 E
Requirement: N= 10 Trunks N= 10 Trunks
Check m < 10 x N?
M=30 < 10 x 10 = 100 Requirement: N = 10 Trunks N = 10 Trunks M=30 < 10 x 10 = 100
Erlang C Distribution Model Erlang C Distribution Model
BCW model with infinite sources infinite sources (m) and infinite queue length infinite queue length
= arrival rate of new calls arrival rate of new calls
= mean departure rate per call
Blockage



0 1 2 N Q1 Q2

P
0
P
1
P
2
P
N
P
Q1
P
Q2
2
N N N N 3
Immediate Service
Erlang C Distribution Model (2) Erlang C Distribution Model (2)
Balance equations give:
1
0
,
!
k
k
A P
P k N
k
= s
and
0
,
!
k
k
k N
A P
P k N
N N

= >
and
0
1
0
1
! !
N i N
i
P
A N A
N N A i

=
=
| |
+
|

\ .

But P(B) = P(k>N):
0
( )
k
k N
A P
P B

0
k
N
P A

| |
=
|
0
k
N
A A
P

| |
=
|
but can show that:
k
A N
A

| |
=
|
\ .

( )
!
k N
k N
N N

!
N
k N
N N N

=
|
\ .

0
0
!
k
P
N N
=
|
\ .

0 k
N N A
=
|

\ .

N
A N
N
A N
0
( )
!
A N
P B P
N N A
=

1
0
!
( , )
! !
N i
N
i
N N A
C N A
A N A
N N A i

=
| |
+
|

\ .

l
0
! !
i
N N A i
=
\ .
C = Erlang C
Erlang C Traffic Tables Erlang C Traffic Tables
N=18 N=18
# trunks (N) # trunks (N)
P(B)=C(N,A) P(B)=C(N,A)
Traffic offered (A) Traffic offered (A)
A 7 E A 7 E
( ) ( )
Example:
h h b b l f bl k
A=7 E A=7 E
C(18,7)=0.0004 C(18,7)=0.0004
What is the probability of blocking
in an Erlang C system with 18
servers offered 7 Erlangs of traffic?
Delay in Erlang C Delay in Erlang C
Expected number of calls in the queue?
( ) k N P

( )
k
A
k N P

k
N
A A
P k

| |
|
( )
k
k N
k N P
=
=
0
( )
!
k N
k N
k N P
N N

=
=

0
!
k
k
P k
N N
=
| |
=
|
\ .

0
N
P A A N
=
( , ) A C N A
= ( )
h
C N A

=
! N N A N A
=
N A
=

( , ) C N A
N A
=

Mean #Calls Delayed

Mean Delay over All Calls ( )
h
C N A
T
o
=
Recall:
y
Mean Delay over All Calls =
Arrival Rate of Calls
( , ) C N A
N A
=

T
o

=
Mean Delay of Delayed Calls =
h
Mean Delay of Delayed Calls
N A
Also:
( ) ( )
h
T
N A
P delay T C N A e

> ( ) ( , )
N A
P delay T C N A e > =
Comparison of Traffic Models Comparison of Traffic Models
ErlangC (BCW, ErlangC (BCW, sources) sources)
i i l ( C ) i i l ( C )
Poisson (BCH, Poisson (BCH, sources) sources)
Erlang B (BCC, Erlang B (BCC, sources) sources)
Erlang C (BCW, Erlang C (BCW, sources) sources)
P(B)
Binomial (BCH, m sources) Binomial (BCH, m sources)
Engset (BCC, m sources) Engset (BCC, m sources)
Offered Traffic (A)
Efficiency of Large Groups Efficiency of Large Groups
Already seen that for same P(B), increasing servers results in
more than proportional increase in traffic carried
example 1:
(10, 4.14) 0.01 P =
and
(100, 78.2) 0.01 P =
l 2 example 2:
(32, 20.3) 0.01 P = (33, 20.1) 0.005 P =
and
example 3:
(8, 2.05) 0.001 B = (80, 57.8) 0.001 B =
and
What does this mean?
If its possible to collect together several diverse sources, you can
provide better gos at same cost, or
provide same gos at cheaper cost
Efficiency of Large Groups (2) Efficiency of Large Groups (2)
Two trunk groups offered 5 Erlangs each, and B(N,A)=0.002
N
1
=? 5 E
How many trunks total?
From traffic tables, find B(13,5) ~ 0.002
N
1
=13
N
2
=? 5 E N
2
=13
N
total
= 13 + 13 = 26 trunks
Trunk efficiency?
C
T 10(1 0.002)
0 384

C
T
N
=
10(1 0.002)
0.384
26
= =
38.4% utilization 38.4% utilization
Efficiency of Large Groups (3) Efficiency of Large Groups (3)
One trunk group offered 10 Erlangs, and B(N,A)=0.002
How many trunks?
N=? 10 E
How many trunks?
From traffic tables, find B(20,10) ~ 0.002 N=20
N 20 k N = 20 trunks
Trunk efficiency?
C
T
N
=
10(1 0.002)
0.499
20

= =
49.9% utilization 49.9% utilization
For same gos, we can save 6 trunks!
Efficiency of Large Groups (4) Efficiency of Large Groups (4)

B=0.1 B=0.1
B=0.01 B=0.01
A
B=0.1 B=0.1
B=0.01 B=0.01
B=0.001 B=0.001 B=0.001 B=0.001
N N
Sensitivity to Overload Sensitivity to Overload
Consider 2 cases:
Case 1: N = 10 and B(N,A) = 0.01 Case 1: N 10 and B(N,A) 0.01
B(10,4.5) ~ 0.01, so can carry 4.5 E
What if 20% overload (5.4 E)? B(10,5.4) ~ 0.03 ( ) ( )
3 times P(B) with 20% overload
Case 1: N = 30 and B(N,A) = 0.01
B(30,20.3) ~ 0.01, so can carry 20.3 E
What if 20% overload (24.5 E)? B(30,24.5) ~ 0.08
8 times P(B) with 20% overload!
Trunk Group Splintering Trunk Group Splintering
if high possibility of overloads, small groups may be better
Incremental Traffic Carried by N Incremental Traffic Carried by N
th th
Trunk Trunk
If a trunk group is of size N-1, how much extra traffic can it
carry if you add one extra trunk?
Before, can carry: T
C1
= A x [1-(B(N-1,A)]
After, can carry: T
C2
= A x [1-(B(N,A)]
2 1 N C C
A T T =
| | | | ( )
1 ( , ) 1 ( 1, ) A B N A B N A =
( )
( 1, ) ( , ) A B N A B N A =
( ) ( ) A N A B N A
What does this mean?
Random Hunting Random Hunting: Increase in trunk groups total carried traffic
( ) ( , )
N
A N A B N A ~
for very low blocking
after adding an N
th
trunk
Sequential Hunting Sequential Hunting: Actual traffic carried by the N
th
trunk in the
group
Incremental Traffic Carried by N Incremental Traffic Carried by N
th th
Trunk (3) Trunk (3)
Fixed B(N A)
A
N
Fixed B(N,A)
N
Example Example
Individual trunks are only economic if they can carry 0.4 E or
more. A trunk group of size N=10 is offered 6 E. Will all 10
t k b i l? trunks be economical?
( )
( 1, ) ( , )
N
A A B N A B N A =
( )
10
6 (9, 6) (10, 6) A B B =
( )
6 0.07514 0.04314 =
0.192 E = 0.4 E <
At least the 10 At least the 10
th th
trunk is not trunk is not economical economical