Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 10, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 10, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Claims declined to 323,000 for w/e on 3rd May. UKs Manufacturing Production increased by 1.1 percent in March. Japans Current Account at a surplus of 0.34 trillion Yen in March. Asian markets are trading on a higher note today on the back of unexpected decline in US jobless claims data which led to upbeat global market sentiments. US Unemployment Claims declined by 4,000 to 323,000 for the week ending on 3rd May as against a rise of 327,000 in prior week. Mortgage Delinquencies was at 7.25 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier rise of 7.09 percent in Q4 of 2012. Wholesale Inventories gained by 0.4 percent in March as compared to decline of 0.3 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6050.2 19939.0 15082.62 1626.7 17090.6 1979.5 58497.8 14191.5 96.39 1468.80 2387.90 7356.50 102.09 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 1.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.9 0.0

as on May 9, 2013 WoW 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.1 5.7 -0.1 2.6 0.3 -0.4 7.3 -0.6 MoM 8.2 7.5 1.5 3.6 8.3 1.5 6.4 5.2 5.6 -2.1 2.2 -6.2 #N/A YoY 21.0 9.0 17.5 16.0 24.1 0.3 -2.0 56.9 -0.4 -8.4 -18.0 -8.9 0.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) increased by 1.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weak global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, US equities also traded on a negative note which also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the DX was capped on account of favorable US jobless claims data. The currency touched an intra-day high of 82.915 and closed at 82.88 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of increase in dollar demand from oil and gold importers. Additionally, weak global and domestic market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure in the currency. However, sharp downside in the Indian Rupee was cushioned as a result of rise in inflow of foreign funds. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.35 and closed at 54.35 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.6,731.90 crores ($1,246.09 million) as on 9th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.67,768.20 crores ($12,556.40 million) till 9th May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of positive industrial production and manufacturing output data will also support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of scams by the major private banks along with dollar demand from the oil and gold importers.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.88 54.35 54.35 54.35 Prev. day 1.1 -0.5 0.31 0.32 WoW 0.7 -1.0 0.75 0.76

as on May 9, 2013 MoM 0.7 -0.1 -0.47 -0.47 YoY 4.3 -1.1 2.06 2.07

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook

valid for May 10, 2013 Trend Support 54.20/54.0 Resistance 54.50/54.65

US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 10, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.8 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in dollar index coupled with mixed global market sentiments. Further, European Central Bank (ECB) survey showed that Euro zone economy is expected to contract this year by 0.4 percent added downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3009 and closed at 1.3041 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, expectation of favorable economic data from Germany may support currency to gain strength. However, ECB survey showed that Euro zone economy is expected to contract this year by 0.4 percent which may cap sharp upside in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 71.20/70.90 71.70/72.0 valid for May 10, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3041 71.19 71.4 71.4 Prev. day -0.8 0.0 0.39 0.40

as on May 9, 2013 WoW -0.2 -1.3 0.57 0.59 MoM -0.5 0.0 1.81 1.85 YoY 0.8 -5.0 2.04 2.06

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.53 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength dollar index coupled with mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as the Bank of England (BOE) kept the interest rates and Asset purchasing Facility unchanged. Further, rise in manufacturing production data prevented sharp depreciation in the sterling pound. UKs Manufacturing Production increased by 1.1 percent in March as against a rise of 0.7 percent a month ago. Industrial Production grew at slow pace of 0.7 percent in March from increase of 0.9 percent in prior month. Asset Purchase Facility remained unchanged at 375 billion Pounds in the month of May. Official Bank Rate also kept unchanged at 0.5 percent in the current month. The Sterling Pound touched an intraday low of 1.5423 and closed at 1.5448 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note as the BOE kept its interest rates and asset purchasing facility unchanged. Further, optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX may support sterling pound. Additionally, expectation of favorable economic data from the country may act as a positive factor. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 10, 2013 Support 84.30/84.0 Resistance

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5448 83.793 84.53 Prev. day -0.53 -0.456 0.63

as on May 9, 2013

WoW -0.5 0.24 0.70

MoM 0.4 1.90 1.98

YoY -4.2 -2.30 -1.83

84.52

0.64

0.70

1.97

-1.87

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

84.80/85.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 10, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Current Account at a surplus of 0.34 trillion Yen in March as against a previous deficit of 0.03 trillion Yen a month ago. Bank Lending rose by 1.7 percent in April from earlier increase of 1.5 percent in March. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 100.79 and closed at 100.59 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 10, 2013 Support 54.80/54.60 Resistance 55.30/55.50

JPY (% change)
Last 100.59 0.5384 55.05 55.07 Prev day 1.6 -1.68 0.45 0.47

as on May 9, 2013 WoW 2.7 -2.02 -0.77 -0.73 MoM 0.9 -7.65 -5.90 -5.88 YoY 26.3 -18.54 -16.96 -16.90

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 10, 2013

Indicator Current Account New Loans Trade Balance G7 Meetings FOMC Member Evans Speaks Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks FOMC Member George Speaks Federal Budget Balance Country Japan China UK All US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 10 -15 Day 1 5:55pm 7:00pm 11:30pm 11.30pm
th th

Actual 0.34T -

Forecast 0.48T 770B -8.9B 93.9B

Previous 0.00T 1060B -9.4B -106.5B

Impact High Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

2:00pm

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