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VOF Q1 2013 Report Final
VOF Q1 2013 Report Final
VOF Q1 2013 Report Final
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Manager comment VOFs unaudited net asset value was USD779.5 million or USD2.76 per share as at 31 March 2013, an increase of 5.3 percent compared to an auditor reviewed USD2.62 per share as at 31 December 2012. The Companys share price closed the period at USD2.11, up 14.7 percent from a closing price of USD1.84 at the end of December 2012. As a result, VOFs share price to NAV discount narrowed to 23.7 percent from 29.0 percent a quarter ago. This increase in NAV was attributable to VOFs capital markets portfolio which increased 14.4 percent during the quarter, underpinned by shares of Vinamilk (VNM), Hoa Phat Group (HPG) and Kinh Do Corp (KDC), which rose 31.8, 23.8 and 20.5 percent, respectively. Additionally, the Companys capital markets portfolio continued to outperform regional indices during the quarter. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan and MSCI Emerging markets indices declined by 0.7 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. During the first quarter, the Company bought back 4.8 million ordinary shares, which are held in Treasury. Since the onset of the share buyback programme, the Company has spent USD69.0 million in total, to buy back 42.0 million shares, representing 12.9 percent of the Companys ordinary shares in issue. On 7 March 2013, we presented an update of the Company to shareholders at the Edmond de Rothschild Emerging Markets Funds Conference 2013 in London, UK. Our presentation provided an update on performance over the past year and VOFs strategy going forward. You can access the presentation on our website by clicking on this link. Real estate project revaluations
31 March 2013 NAV 2.76 per share (5.3% q-o-q) Total NAV: USD779.5 million
Performance summary
Cumulative change: 31-Mar-13 (USD) 2.76 2.11 (23.7%) 595.1 779.5 3mth 5.3% 14.7% 1yr 17.1% 35.9% 3yr 13.5% 34.0% 5yr 2.9% -31.7%
NAV per share Share price Premium/(Discount) Market cap (mln) Total NAV (mln)
18.9% -25.6%
VOF project revaluations were undertaken for the period ending 31 March 2013 with a number of projects appraised by international valuation consultants. Key appraised projects include: Century 21, My Gia, Danang Golf Course and Danang Beach Resort. The outcome was a downward market value adjustment on the majority of these projects. Results were primarily due to the continued softening in the real estate market over the past quarter, with ongoing illiquidity and a high cost of mortgage financing.
0.1
Agriculture
% of NAV 8.1
Sector Hospitality
Century 21
VinaLand Ltd (AIM: VNL) Dai Phuoc Lotus Danang Beach Resort / Golf course Top 5 private equity investments Name of Investee Prime Group IBS Hoan My Hospital International School, HCMC SSG- Saigon Pearl
2.9
2.0 1.9 1.7
Real estate
Real estate Real estate Real estate
Sector Industrials Industrials Pharmaceuticals & health care Education Real estate
Description The largest ceramics producer with dominant market share. Construction materials firm. Private hospital chain. Leading international school in Ho Chi Minh City providing world-quality education. One of the biggest property developers in Vietnam.
0.9%
(20,000)
Portfolio by sector
Consumer goods Real estate projects Agriculture Industrials 10.7% 10.1% 9.2% 7.8% 7.5% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.2% 19.9% 17.3%
Investment
Exit
Hospitality
Financial services Cash Other sectors Real estate equities Others Pharma and healthcare Mining/Oil & Gas
policy rates by 100bps, therefore, the refinance and discount rates have been lowered to 8.0 and 6.0 percent, respectively, while caps on deposit rates were lowered to 7.5 percent. This is a signal that the central bank is continuing to support the economy by stimulating growth. First quarter GDP figures showed that the Vietnamese economy expanded by 4.9 percent, mainly driven by exports. The foreign direct investment sector continues to be an important driver of growth as the government implements policies to improve domestic demand. During the quarter, foreign direct investment disbursement figures reached USD2.7 billion. Additionally, registered capital soared to USD6.0 billion in 1Q 2013, mainly as a result of a commitment of USD2.8 billion for the Nghi Son oil refinery and USD2.0 billion for a new Samsung factory in Thai Nguyen. Japan remained the largest investor out of 31 countries and territories investing in Vietnam in the first quarter, having newly registered and expanded capital of over USD3.2 billion.
5.0% 6.8%
13.0
114.3 114.6 0.3 20,855 8.0%
6.0
29.2 29.7 0.5 20,960 7.5%
6.0
29.2 29.7 0.5 0.3% 0.0%
63.6%
-32.9% -30.8% -16.7% 0.2% -41.7%
Q1 2013 GDP growth slowed to 4.9 percent and was mostly attributable to exports.
According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnams trade deficit in March was approximately USD300 million. However, for the first three months of the year, the country recorded a trade surplus of nearly USD500 million based on USD29.7 billion of exports. Many exported commodities, including seafood, coffee, crude oil, wood and wooden products, garments and footwear, recorded an export turnover of over USD1.0 billion in Q1 2013.
In March, the SBV also demonstrated its ability to stablise the foreign exchange market following the disturbance caused by an increase in demand for USD to cover imports during Februarys lunar holiday season. The SBV intervened by selling sufficient official dollar reserves to maintain the longstanding exchange rate of approximately VND20,900 per USD.
Includes gold.
1.0%
0.0% Jul-10 Jul-11 Mar-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 5
Source: GSO
The first quarter of 2013 witnessed the introduction of several new government policies to support the property market. In March, the SBV issued a draft circular to provide VND30,000 billion (USD1.4 billion) to support low interest loans for low income home buyers and developers. Shortterm VND deposit rate caps were also reduced from 8.0 to 7.5 percent in an effort to divert some consumer savings into properties. The proposed establishment of a state-led asset management company (VAMC) to deal with non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system has not been approved, given further refinements are required from related ministries and government bodies. While the government is continuing to finalise an effective solution, NPLs continue to impact commercial banks negatively and hinder their ability to lend or reduce interest rates. As a result, lending rates are still sitting at around 15.0 percent for real estate related loans, resulting in an extremely challenging environment for financing and re-financing of real estate projects. However, we believe these initiatives are not likely to be adequate enough to materially improve the current property market. The Manager is currently working with several local banks to renegotiate existing project bank loans in addition to exploring alternative offshore debt facilities that could either be based on project companies or a facility at Fund level. According to Jones Lang LaSalle and CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), the residential sector experienced some improvement in demand volume during the previous quarter; however, selling prices continued to either fall or remain flat at best. The majority of the apartment and landed home units purchased were lower/mid market and either completed or were scheduled to be handed over during 2013. Prices have been under pressure as developers compete across most sub sectors, causing many to continue to offer various incentives to stimulate demand. For the full year, condominium sales are expected to remain slow across the country with completed projects faring slightly better. There is growing interest in the affordable and mid-end segments (USD600 - USD1,000 per sqm) and it is expected that more products in these segments will be introduced later this year. Despite the decline in interest rates, market liquidity will take time to improve and enforce a positive impact on residential sales. In both primary and secondary markets, prices of villas and townhouses are still trending down and sales rates are slow. It is expected that the landed property sector will recover faster than the condominium sector given Vietnamese buyers generally prefer landed houses. Demand remains steady for the medium priced villa market (including bare shell products), especially for good quality projects with reputable developers, good quality, and a good living environment with green space and amenities. While some developers have been able to sell units and hold prices firm, others have reduced prices or changed their sales strategy. Additionally, land plot projects are gaining more interest due to their affordability. New concept or strategically located retail centres such as Vincom Center A and Pandora City in Ho Chi Minh (HCMC) are still attracting tenants. Consistent leasing activity throughout new projects has slightly increased occupancy rates within the central business district (CBD). Despite the difficult economic conditions which have impacted consumer spending over the past 12 months, Vietnam still offers favorable demographics and rising consumer disposable incomes, which have maintained the interest of large foreign retail brands waiting to enter the market. Food and beverage, daily necessities, and entertainment related retailers are expected to continue driving the market in 2013. The number of foreigners travelling to Vietnam totalled 1.8 million in Q1 2013, a 6.2 percent decline compared to the same period last year, impacted by tighter travelling budgets due to the persistent global economic slowdown. Nevertheless, CBRE expects that more international hotel brands will enter the market in 2013. They believe several merger and acquisition deals could occur, especially in the luxury segment, with local investors potentially being more active than foreign companies. Hotels situated in prime locations such as the CBD areas of Hanoi and HCMC are expected to see an improvement in their daily rates from 2012.
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Hotels: Local investors expected to be more active in buying luxury brand hotels.
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (USD mn) Revenue Gross profit FY09A 24.5 10.2 FY10A 30.9 15.1 FY11A 34.3 17.6 FY12A 35.2 18.9 YTD 10.8 6.1
As at 31 March 2013, VOFs stake in the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi is valued at USD63.5 million.
Acquired by VOF in 2005, the Sofitel Legend Metropole Hanoi Hotel (Metropole Hotel) is located on 7,500 sqm in the prime location of Hanois CBD, surrounded by various historic monuments and museums. Managed by Accor Group, the hotel operates with 364 rooms over 27,289 sqm gross floor area. In August 2011, a wartime air raid shelter was discovered hidden within the hotel grounds and is now renovated for touring. The Metropole Hanois average occupancy rate was 66.5 percent throughout FY 2012, generating USD35.2 million in revenue and USD18.9 million in gross operating profit for the year. Management expects financial results to remain stable through FY 2013, with a target of USD37.0 million in revenue and USD19.7 million in gross profit. As of 31 March 2013, revenue reached USD10.8 million and gross operating profit of USD6.1 million, meeting 108 percent and 111 percent of managements target, respectively.
Gross margin
Net income Net margin Balance sheet Total assets Shareholders equity ROE (%)
41.6%
3.1 12.7%
48.9%
5.3 17.2%
51.3%
6.9 20.1%
53.4%
7.5 21.3%
56.5%
3.1 28.7%
50.1 32 10%
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (VND bn) Net revenue Gross profit Gross margin (%) Net profit Net margin (%) EPS (adjusted) (VND) DPS Balance sheet (VND bn) Total assets Shareholders equity ROE (%) Book value per share (VND) Valuation PER (x) P/B (x) Dividend yield (%) FY09A 1,067 282 26% 267 25% 3,284 3,284 1,869 1,159 23.0% 14,256 13.2 2.0 2.5% FY10A 2,030 709 35% 502 25% 6,175 6,175 2,305 1,284 39.1% 15,793 7.0 2.8 4.5% FY11A 6,233 436 7.0 72 1.2 1,806 1,200 2,685 482 15 12,141 FY12A 7,423 553 7.4 139 1.9 3,494 1,800 2,557 554 25 14,000 4.2 1.0 12.4 7
Established in 1973 as private company and equitized in 2010, BDFC is the largest NPK fertilizer manufacturer in Vietnam. BDFCs current annual production capacity is approximately 500,000 tons, accounting for 30 percent of the overall market share. The companys main product line has nearly 100 unique stock keeping units (SKUs) of NPK fertilizer developed and marketed under the Dau Trau brand name. Vietnams southern market makes up 60.0 percent of the companys total sales. In 2012, the company made efforts to expand into the northern region of the country, as well as Cambodia through various marketing campaigns. Management has indicated that in 2013, the company will explore opportunities in the promising Myanmar market. In FY 2012, the company achieved solid growth in both sales and profit of 19.0 percent and 93.0 percent, respectively. BDFCs net profit growth was largely due to a significant decline in interest expense. For FY 2013, the company expects to achieve revenue and net profit growth of 22.0 percent and 17.0 percent, respectively. As at 31 March 2013, the company is trading at trailing P/E ratio of 4.2x and P/B ratio of 1.0x.
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (VND bn) Revenue Gross profit Gross margin Net income Net margin EPS (adjusted) FY10A 160.4 58.9 36.7% 4.8 3.0% FY11A 164.2 105.7 64.4% 16.8 10.2% FY12A 170.0 115.3 67.8% 38.3 22.5% FY13E Mar YTD 173.0 116.4 67.3% 53.3 30.8% 43.5 30.0 69.0% 14.4 33.1%
Hung Vuong Corporation, together with its local partner Saigon 5, developed Hung Vuong Plaza, a commercial center located in District 5 of Ho Chi Minh City. Situated on a prime location within the district, Hung Vuong Plaza includes a 9-storey retail podium with a total leasable area of 29,966 sqm. The property sits on a 9,531 sqm site and has a land right use certificate for 50 years. The retail center was officially launched back in the middle of 2007. Hung Vuong Plazas average occupancy rate was 98.7 percent throughout 2012, generating USD8.1 million in revenue and USD5.5 million in gross operating profit. A change in management at the end of 2011 resulted in a higher net margin of 22.5 percent compared to just 10.2 percent in FY 2011. As at 31 March 2013, the company reported revenue of USD2.1 million and gross operation profit of USD1.4 million. Management expects financial results to remain stable throughout FY 2013, with a target of USD8.3 million in revenue and USD5.6 million in gross profit.
Vinamilk (VNM)
Shareholders equity
ROE (%) Book value per share
264.4
1.8%
285.9
5.9%
342.3
11.2%
n/a
n/a
356.7
4.0%
n/a 14,268.0
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (VND bn) Net revenue Gross profit Gross margin (%) Net profit Net margin (%) EPS (adjusted) (VND) DPS Balance sheet (VND bn) Total assets Shareholders equity ROE (%) Book value per share (VND) Valuation PER (x) P/B (x) Dividend yield (%)
Vinamilk (VNM) is the leading dairy products manufacturer and distributor in Vietnam, with more than 30 percent of the total dairy market. The company offers a wide range of products, from fresh and powdered milk to condensed milk, yogurt and coffee. The domestic market accounts for about 90 percent of total sales. It is the first Vietnamese company to be one of Asia s Top 200 Small and Midsize Companies, according to Forbes, ranked 18th among the Top 200 in terms of profit and 31st in overall market value. VNM achieved net revenue of USD1.3 billion in FY 2012, an increase of 23.0 percent yearon-year and a net profit of USD280 million, up 39.6 percent compared to FY 2011. Over the past three years, VNM has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 37.0 percent for revenue. The company expects the Vietnamese dairy industry to continue growing at an annual rate of 15-20 percent. In Q1 2013, VNM opened a new USD100 million dairy factory, one of the world largest.
FY10A 17,184 5,173 30.1% 3,616 21.0% 6,845 2,000 FY10E 10,773 7,964 45.4% 14,323 FY10E 12.6 6.0 2.3%
FY11A 22,264 6,554 29.4% 4,166 18.7% 7,632 3,000 FY11A 15,564 12,412 33.6% 22,323 FY11A 12.0 4.0 4.4%
FY12A 27,101 9,076 33.5% 5,819 21.4% 6,981 4,000 FY12A 19,697 15,493 37.5% 18,592 FY12A 16.6x 6.4 3.5%
FY13E 31,780 11,120 35% 6,500 19.6% 7,800 3,400 FY13E 22,000 20,000 32.5% 24,000 FY13E 14.8 4.8 2.9%
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As of 31 March 2013, VNM traded at VND116,000 per share, equivalent to a P/E ratio of 16.6x and a P/B ratio of 4.8x.
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (VND bn) Net revenue Gross profit Gross margin Net profit Net margin EPS (adjusted) (VND) DPS (VND) Balance sheet (VND bn) Total assets Shareholders equity ROE (%) Book value per share (VND) Valuation PER (x) P/B (x) Dividend yield (%) FY10A 6,619 2,382 36% 1,703 26% 4,533 2,000 7,418 6,230 29% 16,400 8.5 2.3 5.3% FY11A 9,226 4,035 44% 3,104 34% 8,287 3,500 9,295 8,411 43% 21,780 2.9 1.1 14.7% FY12A 13,321 4,324 32% 3,016 23% 8,000 4,500 10,580 9,165 35% 23,730 4.5 1.5 10.5% FY13E 10,700 3,600 34% 2,500 23% 6,600 3,500 11,000 9,100 27% 23,900 6.8 1.8 8.3%
PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals (DPM) is a leading fertilizer producer in Vietnam, with an estimated 40 percent market share in urea fertilizer and a production capacity of 800,000 tons per annum. Its parent company, PetroVietnam, owns a 61.75 percent stake in DPM. DPM reported total revenue and net profit for FY 2012 at USD633 million and USD143 million. Rising input cost squeezed the companys net margin from 34.0 percent in FY 2011 to 23.0 percent in FY 2012. For 2013, DPMs management has set conservative guidance, with an expected USD91 million in profit before tax on USD510 million in revenue , due mainly to concerns over competition from two new urea plants in Ca Mau and Ninh Binh that were launched this year. The company looks to expand into the Cambodian and Myanmar markets in the near future. As at 31 March 2013, shares of DPM closed at VND44,900, equivalent to a P/E ratio of 6.8x and a P/B ratio of 1.8x. PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Services JSC (PVD)
Financial highlights
Profit and loss (VND bn) Net revenue Gross profit Gross margin Net profit Net margin EPS (adjusted) (VND) DPS (VND) Balance sheet (VND bn) Total assets Shareholders equity ROE (%) Book value per share (VND) Valuation PER (x) P/B (x) Dividend yield (%) FY10A 7,572 1,758 23% 906 12% 4,400 2,000 14,640 5,227 19% 24,900 11.8 2.1 3.8% FY11A 9,210 2,057 22% 1,075 12% 5,160 1,487 18,535 6,202 18% 29,600 6.3 1.1 4.6% FY12A 11,930 2,683 22% 1,324 12% 6,260 19,083 6,992 20% 33,300 6.0 1.1 4.2% FY13E 12000 3,000 26% 1,600 13% 6,400 2,000 22,000 8,200 20% 32800 6.6 1.3 5.0% 9
PetroVietnam Drilling JSC (PVD) is a leading Vietnamese drilling-related services company, with its parent, PetroVietnam, owning a 50 percent stake. The company owns and operates five drilling rigs, including three jack-up rigs and one tender assist drilling rig (TAD), in addition to its leased jack-up fleet. PVD has successfully established a team of highly technical experts, as well as long term relationships with its clients, namely VietsovPetro, British Petroleum and Chevron. PVD performance was strong in FY 2012 despite a difficult macroeconomic environment in Vietnam due mainly to high regional day-rates on drilling rigs and the launch of a fifth TAD rig in February 2012. PVDs revenue and net profit was USD566.7 million and USD63.0 million in 2012, up 29.0 percent and 21.0 percent, respectively. For FY 2013, management expects even stronger results amid continued demand for jack-up drilling rigs in the region, which could help increase the companys drilling day rates. The company expects to earn a net profit of USD76.2 million in 2013. As at 31 March 2013, shares of PVD closed at VND42,400, equivalent to a P/E ratio of 6.3x and a P/B ratio of 1.2x.
Audit and Valuation committees VOF has both an audit and valuation committee composed of independent non-executive members of the board of directors of the fund, and chaired by an independent director. The committees meet at least quarterly.
VOF Audit Committee Michael G. Gray (Chairman) Martin Glynn William Vanderfelt VOF Valuation Committee Martin Glynn (Chairman) William Vanderfelt Michael G. Gray
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Fund summary
VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd (Vietnam Opportunity Fund or VOF) is a closed-end fund trading on the AIM Market of the London Stock Exchange. Download the VOF factsheet at www.vinacapital.com Fund launch 30 September 2003 Term of fund Five years with continuation, subject to shareholder vote for liquidation Fund domicile Cayman Islands Legal form Exempted company limited by shares Structure Single class of ordinary shares trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange plc. Auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers (Hong Kong) Nominated adviser (Nomad) Grant Thornton Corporate Finance Custodian and Administrator HSBC Trustee Brokers Edmond de Rothschild Securities (Bloomberg: LCFR) Numis Securities (Bloomberg: NUMI) Lawyers Lawrence Graham (UK) Maples and Calder (Cayman Islands) Management and performance fee Management fee of 2 percent of NAV. Performance fee of 20 percent of total NAV increase after achieving the higher of an 8 percent compound annual return and the high watermark Investment manager: VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd Investment policy: Medium to long term capital gains with some recurring income and short term profit taking. Primary investment focus areas are: Privately negotiated equity investments; Undervalued/distressed assets; Privatization of state-owned enterprises; Real estate; and Private placements into listed and OTC-traded companies. Investment focus by geography: Greater Indochina comprising: Vietnam (minimum of 70 percent), Cambodia, Laos, and southern China. 11
-415,657
1,347 -417,004
3,098
-3,684 6,782
105,005
311 104,694
-36,179
106 -36,285
28,432
0 28,432
VinaCapital
VinaCapital Investment Management Ltd (VCIM) is the BVIregistered investment manager of VOF. Don Lam Brook Taylor Andy Ho Dang P. Minh Loan Contact David Dropsey Chief Executive Officer Chief Operating Officer Managing Director, Head of Investment Deputy Managing Director, Private equity