Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 13, 2013

Highlights
US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $112.9 billion in April. Indias Industrial Production grew by 2.5 percent in month of March. German Trade Balance was at surplus of 17.6 billion Euros in March. Japans Economy Watchers Sentiment fell to 56.5-mark in last month. US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $112.9 billion in April as against a deficit of $106.5 billion in March. Indias Industrial Production grew by 2.5 percent in March as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. The country FY13 industrial production rose only by 1 percent when compared to rise of 2.9 percent in prior year. Manufacturing Output increased by 3.2 percent in March from rise of 2.2 percent in the earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6094.8 20082.6 15118.49 1633.7 17284.0 1944.8 58497.8 14607.5 96.04 1436.80 2363.20 7391.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.1 -1.8 0.2 2.9 -0.4 -2.2 0.0 0.5 0.0

as on May 10, 2013 WoW 2.5 2.6 1.0 1.2 2.1 -1.1 5.4 -0.1 0.4 -2.1 -1.2 1.4 -0.5 MoM 10.2 10.1 3.6 2.9 10.6 1.1 10.5 10.0 8.3 5.6 0.0 -5.8 0.3 YoY 22.5 9.8 17.6 20.3 23.4 1.5 -1.6 62.1 -1.1 -9.8 -18.1 -9.0 0.6

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) increased by 1.3 percent in the last week on the back of ECB President Mario Draghi statement that further rates cut are possible if situation demands. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable data from the US. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also prevented sharp upside in the DX. The currency touched a weekly high of 83.52 and closed at 83.23 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 1.9 percent. The currency depreciated on account of increase in dollar demand from oil and gold importers coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable services PMI data from the country exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the Indian Rupee was cushioned as a result of rise in inflow of foreign funds. Further, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments along with favorable industrial production data from the country prevented fall in the Rupee. The currency touched a low of 54.89 in the last week and closed at 54.80 against dollar on Friday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,524.70 crores ($1,392.26 million) as on 10th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.68,561.0 crores ($12,702.60 million) till 10 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, dollar demand from gold and oil importers will also exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the country.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.23 54.80 54.98 54.97 Prev. day 0.4 -0.8 1.16 1.14 WoW 1.3 -1.9 1.65 1.66

as on May 10, 2013 MoM 1.0 -0.5 0.59 0.59 YoY 4.8 -2.8 2.60 2.58

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for May 13, 2013 Support 54.70/54.40 Resistance 55.10/55.35

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of strength in dollar index. Further, weak economic data from Spain, France and Italy added downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi said that bank is ready to cut interest rates again if required kept euro under pressure. Apart, from that ECB survey showed that Euro zone economy is expected to contract this year by 0.4 percent which acted as a negative factor. However, favorable economic data from Germany along with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. German Trade Balance was at surplus of 17.6 billion Euros in March as against a previous surplus of 17.1 billion a month ago. Italian Industrial Production declined by 0.8 percent in March from earlier fall of 0.9 percent in February. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3242 and closed at 1.3113 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of strength in DX coupled with mixed global market sentiments. Further, Euro group meeting will keep the currency under pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 71.10/70.80 71.60/71.90 valid for May 13, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2992 71.16 71.4 Prev. day -0.4 0.0 -0.02

as on May 10, 2013 WoW -0.9 -0.9 0.57 MoM -0.9 0.5 -0.24 YoY 0.4 -4.9 3.03

71.4

-0.04

0.56

-0.26

3.02

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5363 84.224 84.53 Prev. day -0.55 0.514 0.01

as on May 10, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound depreciated by 1.3 percent on the back of strength in dollar index. Further, unfavorable trade balance data from the country added downside pressure. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as the Bank of England (BOE) kept the interest rates and Asset purchasing Facility unchanged. Further, optimistic global market sentiments along with rise in manufacturing production data prevented sharp depreciation in the sterling pound. UKs Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.1 billion in March as against a earlier deficit of 9.2 billion a month ago. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5604 in the last week and closed at 1.5571 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength DX. Further, mixed global market sentiments may keep sterling pound under pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 13, 2013 Support 84.30/84.10 Resistance

WoW -1.3 0.54 0.57

MoM 0.1 0.80 1.07

YoY -4.8 -1.99 -2.30

84.53

0.01

0.55

1.05

-2.26

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

84.70/85.0

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 13, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 2.6 percent in the last week on the back of upbeat global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further unfavorable economic data from the country also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Japans Economy Watchers Sentiment fell by 0.8 points to 56.5-mark in April as compared to rise of 57.3-level in March. The Yen touched a weekly low of 101.98 and closed at 101.58 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 13, 2013 Support 53.80/53.50 Resistance 54.30/54.70 Last 101.58 0.5395 54.13 54.12 Prev day 1.0 0.20 -1.68 -1.72 as on May 10, 2013 WoW 2.6 -0.72 -1.94 -1.95 MoM 3.3 -1.37 -1.45 -1.50 YoY 27.1 -19.07 -19.48 -19.49

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 13, 2013

Indicator Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y Euro group Meetings Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Business Inventories m/m Country China China Europe US US US Time (IST) 11.00am 11:00am All Day 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast Previous 20.9% 8.9% -0.4% -0.4% 0.1% Impact Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

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