Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 17, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 17, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits increased by 1.02 million in the last month. European CPI remained unchanged at 1.2 percent in month of April. US Unemployment Claims increased to 360,000 for w/e on 10th May. Japans Core Machinery Orders increased by 14.2 percent in March. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the US in yesterdays trading session which led to rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. US Building Permits increased by 1.02 million in April as against a rise of 0.89 million in March. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the month of April. Unemployment Claims increased by 32,000 to 360,000 for the week ending on 10th May from earlier rise of 328,000 in prior week. CPI declined by 0.4 percent in last month as compared to earlier fall of 0.2 percent in March. Housing Starts fell to 0.85 million in April with respect to rise of 1.02 million in March. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was at -5.2-mark in May from rise of 1.3-level in April, Chinas Conference Board (CB) Leading Index rose to 1.5 percent in April from earlier decline of 0.6 percent in March.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6169.9 20247.3 15233.22 1650.5 17544.0 1986.8 58497.8 15037.2 95.16 1387.10 2264.30 7263.75 102.09 Prev. day 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.3 0.9 0.2 -0.4 0.9 -0.7 0.0 0.9 0.0

as on May 16, 2013 WoW 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.7 0.4 5.5 -0.1 -1.3 -3.5 -4.2 -1.3 -1.4 MoM 6.7 6.5 4.7 4.8 11.3 3.3 8.5 12.9 8.1 -0.6 -2.9 -7.4 -0.3 YoY 24.8 10.7 20.9 24.6 32.1 1.0 8.3 70.9 2.5 -10.9 -19.1 -5.0 0.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of unfavorable economic data from the US. Further, US equities traded lower which also prevented sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.57 and closed at 83.72 on Thursday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.72 54.77 54.90 54.90 Prev. day -0.3 0.0 -0.06 -0.07 WoW 1.0 -0.8 1.01 1.00

as on May 16, 2013 MoM 1.3 -1.4 1.19 1.20 YoY 5.4 -0.8 0.48 0.48

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated marginally by 0.01 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of increase in dollar demand from importers. However, sharp downside in the Indian Rupee was cushioned as a result of upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 54.895 and closed at 54.77 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.10,752.10 crores th ($1,981.89 million) as on 16 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.71,788.50 crores ($13,292.20 million) till 16 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, dollar demand from importers will exert downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook

valid for May 17, 2013 Trend Support 54.7/54.5 Resistance 55.05/55.3

US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 17, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated marginally by 0.04 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global market sentiments. However, favorable economic data from Euro zone coupled with weakness in DX cushioned sharp fall in the currency. French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.1 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a fall of 0.3 percent in Q4 of 2012. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 3.24 billion Euros in March from earlier surplus of 1.09 billion Euros a month ago. European Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 1.2 percent in the month of April. Core CPI declined to 1 percent in April as compared to rise of 1.5 percent in prior month. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.7 billion Euros in March with respect to earlier surplus of 12.7 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2845 and closed at 1.2881 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, rise in worries over Europe economic growth as the GDP data showed that the economy contracted for six consecutive quarters may add downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 70.4/70.15 70.9/71.1 valid for May 17, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2881 70.50 70.7 70.7 Prev. day -0.04 0.0 0.07 0.07

as on May 16, 2013 WoW -1.2 1.0 -0.95 -0.95 MoM -1.3 0.3 -0.57 -0.56 YoY 1.3 -4.1 1.80 1.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) 1.5268 83.684 83.62 Prev. day 0.23 0.247 0.04

as on May 16, 2013

WoW -1.2 -0.13 -1.08

MoM -0.1 0.61 0.71

YoY -4.0 -3.54 -3.84

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.23 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak dollar index coupled with favorable economic data from the country. However, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the sterling pound. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5322 and closed at 1.5268 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. However, favorable economic data from the country may cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for May 17, 2013 Support 83.3/83.1 Resistance 83.8/84.1

GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.58

0.01

-1.11

0.66

-3.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| May 17, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the country. Japans Core Machinery Orders increased by 14.2 percent in March as against a rise of 4.2 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 102.68 and closed at 102.24 against dollar on Thursday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 17, 2013 Support 53.3/53.1 Resistance 53.8/54.1

JPY (% change)
Last 102.24 0.5363 53.61 53.60 Prev day 0.0 0.09 0.11 0.10

as on May 16, 2013 WoW 1.6 -0.39 -2.62 -2.66 MoM 4.2 -3.30 -3.41 -3.42 YoY 27.3 -20.91 -20.97 -20.98

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 17, 2013

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m MPC Member Weale Speaks Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan UK US Time (IST) 5:20am 2:45pm 7:25pm Actual 14.2% Forecast 3.1% 77.9 Previous 7.5% 76.4 Impact Medium Medium High

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