Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 17, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 17, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Performance during the day US Dollar Index (DX) gained 0.4 percent in todays trading session. Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.18 percent in todays trade. LME Copper inventories rose by 0.9 percent in todays session. European equities are trading higher today on the back of expectations of favorable consumer sentiments data from US. Further, sharp upside in the markets were capped as a result of forecast that US Federal Reserve will reduce its monthly bond buying purchases as early as from this summer. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Spot gold prices declined by 0.47 percent today on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also led to decline in demand for the safe haven. In the Indian markets, prices fell by 0.47 percent today. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Taking cues from fall in spot gold prices coupled with strength in the DX, Spot silver prices decreased by 0.62 percent today. However, sharp downside in the prices was prevented on account of upside in the base metals pack. Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also restricted fall in the prices. On the MCX July contract, prices declined by 0.71 percent today but depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the white metal prices. The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, favorable machinery orders data from Japan also supported an upside in the prices. Additionally, expectation of rise in US consumer sentiments acted as a positive factor for the prices. However, mixed LME inventories coupled with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased by 0.6 percent today on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, expectation of rise in US consumer sentiments also supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of rise in LME Copper inventories by 0.9 percent which stood at 629,950 tonnes coupled with strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in Rupee supported upside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices gained by 0.49 percent today on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with expectations of favorable US consumer sentiments data. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the oil prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices on the MCX.
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 17 May 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6172.95 20267.60 14926.42 1980.03 17452.52

6199.95 20328.19 15157.32 1991.98 17644.73

6146.15 20155.01 14902.30 1980.03 17452.30

6187.30 20286.12 15138.12 1986.81 17452.30

0.28 0.19 0.67 0.79 0.30

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 17 May 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.88 1.288 54.79

84.13 1.2889 54.9925

83.865 1.2849 54.775

84.045 1.2857 54.87

0.39 -0.19 0.18

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 17 May 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold June13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex June 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil May 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - May13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - May13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX May13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX May13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1386.89 1386.70 26044.00 22.66 28.23 43270 95.15 103.87 5215 7234.00 401.40 1830.00 99.75 1988 109.40 14888 817.40 1853.75 100.95

1392.46 1391.10 26142.0 22.79 22.63 43280 95.79 104.63 5249 7355.00 406.30 1855.00 100.80 2019 110.50 15000 823.50 1863.50 101.50

1372.94 1380.70 25926.0 22.41 22.455 42762 94.79 103.35 5206 7234.00 400.70 1830.00 99.60 1988 109.10 14876 816.40 1849.00 100.70

1379.20 1380.70 26007.00 22.51 22.455 42956 95.63 104.52 5245 7307.50 404.40 1845.50 100.45 2009 110.30 14900 819.60 1858.25 101.25

-0.47 -0.46 -0.47 -0.62 -0.83 -0.71 0.49 0.69 0.69 0.60 0.97 0.72 1.01 0.71 1.05 0.13 0.56 0.19 0.60

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 17, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, expectations of favorable consumer sentiments data from the US will also support an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices will be capped as a result of strength in the DX.

Technical Outook for evening session 17 May 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil May13 Nymex Crude Oil June13 Natural Gas May13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc May13 Lead May13 Aluminum May13 Nickel May13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25663 1355 42536 22.24 5675 5140 93.75 207.7 7155 396.5 98.7 107.6 99.9 807 Support 1 25896 1373 42757 22.41 5695 5190 94.65 211.6 7225 400.5 99.3 108.65 100.35 813 CMP 25985 1379.2 42860 22.48 5727 5241 95.58 216.2 7305 403.4 100.25 110.1 101.15 818 Resistance1 26208 1398 43485 22.97 5755 5266 96.1 218.2 7375 407.2 100.75 110.6 101.5 823.5 Resistance 2 26403 1413 43862 23.26 5820 5318 97 222 7440 411 101.4 111.7 102.1 830

Important Events for Today

Indicator Core Machinery Orders m/m MPC Member Weale Speaks Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Country Japan UK US Time (IST) 5:20am 2:45pm 7:25pm Actual 14.2% Forecast 3.1% 77.9 Previous 7.5% 76.4 Impact Medium Medium High