Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 20, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 20, 2013

Highlights
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 83.7-mark in May. Japans Core Machinery Orders increased by 14.2 percent in March. UKs Rightmove HPI remained at 2.1 percent in the current month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from the US which led to rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment increased by 7.3 points to 83.7mark in May as against a rise of 76.4-level in April. Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 3.1 percent in the current month. The Conference Board (CB) gained by 0.6 percent in April from earlier decline of 0.2 percent in March.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6187.3 20286.1 15354.4 1667.5 17604.6 1986.8 58497.8 15138.1 96.02 1364.90 2233.90 7310.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.3 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.9 -1.6 0.0 0.6 0.0

as on May 17, 2013 WoW 1.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.4 6.2 -0.1 0.0 -4.9 -5.6 -1.1 -1.5 MoM 8.8 8.3 5.4 7.4 9.9 4.6 7.7 11.6 8.2 -3.9 -2.1 -6.8 -0.1 YoY 27.4 10.9 23.4 27.8 34.5 1.1 7.3 70.5 3.7 -11.2 -22.1 -4.7 0.4

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 1.4 percent in the last week on the back of unfavorable economic data from US and Euro Zone. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, positive US equities markets also prevented sharp upside in the DX. The currency touched a weekly high of 84.515 and closed at 84.387 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated marginally by 0.1 percent. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of decline in countrys inflation which is at the lowest level since 2009. Further, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments also prevented sharp fall in the currency. The currency touched a high of 54.535 in the last week and closed at 54.88 against dollar on Friday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.11,992.60 crores ($2,208.38 million) as on 17th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.73,029.0 crores ($13,518.70 million) till 17th May 2013. Outlook

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 84.39 54.88 54.97 54.96 Prev. day 0.8 -0.2 0.12 0.11 WoW 1.4 -0.1 -0.03 -0.02

as on May 17, 2013 MoM 1.9 -1.8 1.29 1.29 YoY 6.2 -1.0 0.64 0.63

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, dollar demand from importers will cap sharp gains in the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for May 20, 2013 Support 54.80/54.70 Resistance 55.20/55.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 20, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 1.2 percent in the last week on the back of strength in dollar index. Euro zone economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013 for consecutive 6 quarters added downside pressure. Further, weak economic data from Germany, France and Italy acted as negative factor for the currency. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker said that the bank may consider slashing euro deposits rates to negative if required kept currency under pressure. However, decline in Inflation in Euro zone along with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp depreciation in the euro. Apart from that, Fitch credit rating agency upgraded Greece sovereign rating to Bminus from CCC, with stable outlook which prevented sharp decline in the currency. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2795 and closed at 1.2838 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak economic data from the Euro Zone in the previous week. However, sharp downside in the currency may be cushioned on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.50/70.30 70.90/71.20 valid for May 20, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2838 70.73 70.8 Prev. day -0.3 -0.3 0.06

as on May 17, 2013 WoW -1.2 0.6 -0.87 MoM -1.6 -0.3 -0.66 YoY 1.1 -4.4 2.19

70.8

0.06

-0.85

-0.66

2.16

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5169 83.261 83.80 Prev. day -0.65 -0.505 0.22

as on May 17, 2013

WoW -1.3 -1.14 -0.87

MoM -0.4 0.75 1.29

YoY -4.0 -3.17 -3.10

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound depreciated by 1.3 percent on the back of strength in dollar index. However, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with optimistic comments from Bank of England (BOE) cushioned sharp downside in the currency. Further, decline in countrys unemployment rate prevented sharp depreciation in the sterling pound. UKs Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) remained unchanged at 2.1 percent in the month of May. The Sterling Pound touched a low of 1.5156 in the last week and closed at 1.5169 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data from the country in the previous week. Weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for May 20, 2013 Support 83.55/83.30 Resistance 84.20/84.40

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.80

0.26

-0.86

1.31

-3.10

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 20, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.6 percent in the last week on the back of upbeat global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the country. Japans Core Machinery Orders increased by 14.2 percent in March as against a rise of 4.2 percent a month ago. The Yen touched a weekly low of 103.3 and closed at 103.18 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for May 20, 2013 Support 53.60/53.40 Resistance 53.90/54.20 Last 103.18 0.5319 53.73 53.75 Prev day 0.9 -0.82 0.22 0.27 as on May 17, 2013 WoW 1.6 -1.41 -0.73 -0.69 MoM 3.7 -3.83 -3.31 -3.30 YoY 30.1 -22.45 -21.05 -21.03

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 20, 2013

Indicator French Bank Holiday German Bank Holiday FOMC Member Evans Speaks Country Europe Europe US Time (IST) All Day All Day 10:30pm Actual Forecast Previous Impact Medium

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