Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

Highlights
US Dollar Index (DX) depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade. Indian Rupee fell to lowest level in last two and half month. Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that US Federal Reserve may ends its bond buying program soon in near term. Further, Bank of Japan can also declare stimulus measures also exerted downside pressure on the markets.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI 6156.9 20224.0 15335.28 1666.3 17506.9 1982.4 58497.8 15360.8 96.71 1384.30 2256.80 7388.50 102.09 Prev. day -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 1.5 0.7 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.0

as on May 20, 2013 WoW 3.0 2.7 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.7 7.4 -0.1 1.6 -2.8 -3.4 -0.1 -1.5 MoM 5.5 5.5 4.2 7.1 6.2 4.0 6.6 13.5 8.4 -1.7 -1.1 -5.8 -0.4 YoY 26.4 10.6 24.0 28.6 34.2 1.9 3.4 78.4 5.7 -12.1 -20.3 -3.5 0.2

US Dollar Index
BOVESPA

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of expectations that US Federal Reserve will end its bond buying program soon. Further, weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.8 and closed at 83.84 on Monday.

NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak global and domestic market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, negative outlook for the country by the Standard and Poor rating agency acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 55.135 and closed at 55.03 against dollar on Monday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.12,950.90 crores th ($2,382.97 million) as on 20 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,987.30 crores ($13,693.30 million) till 20 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers will also exert downside pressure in the currency.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.84 55.03 55.19 55.19 Prev. day -0.6 -0.3 0.40 0.42 WoW 0.6 -0.4 0.60 0.62

as on May 20, 2013 MoM 1.2 -1.5 2.15 2.15 YoY 5.5 -1.1 1.20 1.20

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook

valid for May 21, 2013 Trend Support 55.05/54.9 Resistance 55.3/55.5

US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak Dollar index. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped on the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with worries over economic growth of the country. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2901 and closed at 1.2882 against dollar on Monday. Outlook

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2882 70.76 71.0 70.0 Prev. day 0.3 0.0 0.34 -1.07

as on May 20, 2013 WoW -0.7 0.6 -0.29 -1.68 MoM -1.4 -0.1 0.61 -0.81 YoY 0.8 -4.4 2.46 1.04

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with the strength in DX. Further, expectation of weak economic data from Germany may add downside pressure on the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 70.8/70.6 71.1/71.3 valid for May 21, 2013 Support Resistance

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.56 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak DX. Further, UK Home sellers raised prices which also supported currency as it added optimism that Britains economy is improving. However, mixed global market sentiments capped sharp upside in the sterling pound. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.528 and closed at 1.5254 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of expectation of favorable economic data from the country. However strength in Dollar Index coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments may cap sharp upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 21, 2013 Support 83.6/83.3 Resistance 84/84.2 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5254 84.109 83.90 Prev. day 0.56 1.018 0.13

Source: Telequote

as on May 20, 2013

WoW -0.3 0.21 -0.44

MoM -0.2 1.89 1.72

YoY -3.5 -2.33 -2.54

83.91

0.13

-0.41

1.74

-2.55

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 21, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of weak global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 102.16 and closed at 102.26 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for May 21, 2013 Support 53.65/53.35 Resistance 54.05/54.3

JPY (% change)
Last 102.26 0.5394 53.90 53.90 Prev day -0.9 1.41 0.31 0.29

as on May 20, 2013 WoW 0.4 0.00 -0.29 -0.27 MoM 3.1 -1.95 -1.96 -1.96 YoY 29.4 -21.71 -21.51 -21.49

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 21, 2013

Indicator German PPI m/m CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y Treasury Sec Lew Speaks FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country Europe UK UK UK US US Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 7:30pm 9:00pm Actual Forecast -0.1% 2.6% -1.2% 3.1% Previous -0.2% 2.8% -0.1% 3.3% Impact Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium

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