Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | May 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | May 21, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German PPI remained unchanged at -0.2 percent in April. UKs CPI declined to 2.4 percent in April. UKs Producer Price Index Input declined by 2.3 percent in April. European markets are trading lower on the back of weak economic data from the country. Asian markets ended on mixed note. US stock futures are trading in red. German Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at -0.2 percent in the month of April. UKs CPI declined to 2.4 percent in April as compared to 2.8 percent in March. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input declined by 2.3 percent in April as against a decline of 0.1 percent in March. Retail Price Index (RPI) declined by 2.2 percent in last month from earlier increase of 3.3 percent in March. Spot gold prices declined by 0.95 percent today on the back of strength in Dollar Index. Further, expectations among the investors that the US may start trimming its bond buying purchasing programme added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, continuous decline in SPDR gold trust holdings acted as negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp downside in the prices. Taking cues from fall in spot gold prices coupled with strength in DX, Spot silver prices decreased by 2.23 percent today. Further, weak economic data from Germany and UK added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments kept prices under pressure. The base metals pack traded on a mixed note. However, weak economic data from Germany and UK capped sharp gains in the prices. Further, strength in DX along with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments prevented sharp rallies in the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased by 0.49 percent today on the back of decline in LME inventories by 0.6 percent. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX capped sharp rise in the prices. Further, unfavorable economic data from Germany and UK prevented sharp upside in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in Rupee supported prices to trade in green. Nymex crude oil prices fell by 0.20 percent today on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, unfavorable economic data from Germany and UK added downside pressure on the prices. However, unrest in the Middle East region along with expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories from API cushioned sharp downside in the prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to th fall by 0.4 million barrels for the week ending on 17 May 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 21 May 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6152.35 20227.17 15264.79 1994.02 17496.79

6180.25 20308.04 15388.37 1995.10 17577.56

6102.35 20072.68 15264.42 1976.17 17325.32

6114.10 20111.61 15381.02 1981.09 17325.32

-0.70 -0.56 0.13 -0.07 -0.83

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 21 May 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.89 1.2881 55.10

84.22 1.2904 55.368

83.865 1.2852 54.94

84.155 1.2865 55.2875 as at 4.30 pm 21 May 13

0.37 -0.13 0.47

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold June13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex June 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil May 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - May13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - May13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX May13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX May13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1393.89 1386.50 26140.00 22.92 28.23 43054 96.70 104.78 5345 7380.50 408.55 1856.00 100.85 2040 111.85 15070 827.90 1864.75 101.25

1400.90 1392.30 26362.0 22.94 22.5 43648 96.97 105.15 5367 7420.00 411.90 1864.25 102.00 2051 113.10 15150 833.60 1867.50 102.10

1377.04 1376.80 26000.0 22.38 22.5 42900 96.29 104.11 5338 7360.00 408.00 1848.00 100.80 2031 111.50 15030 825.80 1858.50 101.20

1380.36 1377.00 26149.00 22.41 22.5 43320 96.52 104.38 5360 7390.75 411.00 1860.50 101.80 2043 112.80 15064 832.30 1863.00 102.00

-0.95 -0.53 0.23 -2.23 -0.30 0.13 -0.20 -0.40 0.58 0.03 0.49 0.28 0.69 0.09 0.62 -0.04 0.53 0.05 0.59

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | May 21, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session we expect precious metal, base metal and crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, expectation among the investors that the US Federal Reserves may start trimming its bond buying programme soon may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, weak economic data from Germany and UK may keep prices under pressure. Apart from that, Chinas copper imports declined to 22 month low which may also exert downside pressure on the prices. However, expectation of decline in US crude oil inventories from API along with ongoing unrest in Middle East may cushion sharp decline in the prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 21 May 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil May13 Nymex Crude Oil June13 Natural Gas May13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc May13 Lead May13 Aluminum May13 Nickel May13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25792 1354 42436 21.92 5720 5315 95.75 221 7270 404.2 99.9 110.5 100.4 815 Support 1 26051 1377 43060 22.4 5760 5340 96.45 224.5 7350 407 100.75 111.5 101.1 825 CMP 26166 1382.6 43380 22.63 5785 5363 96.74 227.8 7391 411.1 101.8 112.8 101.95 832.3 Resistance1 26430 1403 44048 23.16 5830 5400 97.65 228.7 7468 413.2 102.15 113.2 102.2 836 Resistance 2 26600 1416 44880 23.8 5860 5450 98.45 230.7 7548 417.4 102.95 114.15 102.8 844

Important Events for Today

Indicator German PPI m/m CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y Treasury Sec Lew Speaks FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Country Europe UK UK UK US US Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 7:30pm 9:00pm Actual -0.2% 2.4% -2.3% 2.9% Forecast -0.1% 2.6% -1.2% 3.1% Previous -0.2% 2.8% -0.1% 3.3% Impact Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium