Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in red tracking flat to negative opening in
most of the Asian markets, on worries the Federal Reserve could downscale its
bond purchases.
US markets ended lower in yesterdays trading session as comments from the Fed
chief suggested the central bank may begin tapering its bond-buying program in
coming months. The Fed chief told that a premature tightening of monetary policy
carries a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery. However,
Bernanke later acknowledged that upbeat economic data could lead the Fed to
scale back its asset purchase program in the next few meetings. Meanwhile, the
National Association of Realtors released a report showing a modest increase in
existing home sales by 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97mn in
April from an upwardly revised 4.94mn in March.
Meanwhile Indian markets erased early gains to end modestly lower on
Wednesday, as L&T results disappointed street and investors awaited Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee
of Congress later in the global day.
Markets Today
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.2)
(49) 20,062
Nifty
(0.3)
(20)
6,095
MID CAP
(0.8)
(55)
6,493
SMALL CAP
(0.8)
(51)
6,109
0.4
37
8,960
BSE PSU
(0.5)
(36)
6,860
BANKEX
(0.4)
(65) 14,876
AUTO
(0.4)
(44) 11,053
METAL
(0.6)
(50)
8,685
OIL & GAS
(1.0)
(87)
8,795
BSE HC
BSE IT
Global Indices
0.1
6,038
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
(0.5)
(80) 15,307
NASDAQ
(1.1)
(39)
3,463
FTSE
0.5
36
6,840
Nikkei
1.6
246 15,627
(0.5)
(105) 23,261
Hang Sang
The trend deciding level for the day is 20,094 / 6,106 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,188 20,314 / 6,137 6,179 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
20,094 / 6,106 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,969 19,875 / 6,063 6,032 levels.
Straits Times
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
WIT
0.5
0.0
$7.9
SENSEX
NIFTY
19,875
6,032
19,969
6,063
20,094
6,106
20,188
6,137
20,314
6,179
IBN
(0.4)
(0.2)
$46.8
HDB
(1.8)
(0.8)
$41.2
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
INFY
0.3
10
3,454
(0.1)
(2)
2,302
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(1.1)
(0.5)
$43.1
News Analysis
Oil ministry gives in-principle nod to export parity pricing for Petroleum
products
Ranbaxy Labs - Under Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) probe
JSW Steel reports subdued crude steel production for April 2013
Result Review: L&T, JLL, Thermax, NCC, Prakash Industries, TVS Srichakra,
Subros
Result Preview: SBI, BHEL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (May 21, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
MFs
4,710
479
2,128
688
2,582
(209)
15,574
(2,704)
76,732
(11,294)
FII Derivatives (May 22, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
Stock Futures
1,991
1,835
1,429
2,102
561
(268)
19,043
29,443
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Berger Paints
249
4.3
Adani Power
56
(7.0)
Castrol India
343
3.8
DLF
227
(5.6)
4,926
3.8
L&T
1,517
(5.6)
943
3.6
Financial Tech
790
(5.3)
2,484
3.1
Future Retail
136
(5.0)
Glaxosmithkl Cons
Tech Mahindra
United Spirits
www.angelbroking.com
Advances / Declines
Advances
Declines
Unchanged
BSE
NSE
867
440
1,449
949
130
89
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
2,065
NSE
10,775
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Oil ministry gives in-principle nod to export parity pricing

for Petroleum products
Media reports suggest that the Oil ministry has given its in-principle nod to the
proposal of the finance ministry to price all the petroleum products on export parity
basis. Under the export parity system the price of the petroleum products will be
based on export prices. Under the current system of Import parity pricing the
import price consists of the import duty on crude and other transport costs which
leads to higher prices causing higher under-recoveries and a resultant higher
subsidy burden on the government. This move is however in line with our
expectation since we believed that the government may do something on similar
lines in order to reduce its fiscal deficit and since in the last couple of years Oil
Marketing companies (OMCs) have not borne any burden of under-recoveries,
this was expected to come. This move would be negative for the OMCs because
the export parity price is lower than the price which OMCs currently charge. In
case of the Upstream companies (ONGC & GAIL), this may not immediately
translate into lower subsidy burden because the government may change the
subsidy sharing ratio in order to reduce its own share of subsidy in a move to
control the fiscal deficit. We await further clarity on the exact timeline of the
implementation of the export parity pricing mechanism and till then maintain our
estimates on ONGC and GAIL.
Ranbaxy Labs - Under Drugs Controller General of India

(DCGI) probe
After the USFDA issue, Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) had been ordered
to examine all the dossiers and drug applications on the basis of which approvals
had been granted to Ranbaxy in the past. The future course of action would be
decided after DCGIs report, expected to come within a month.
According to the reports, DCGI has been asked to go through the US order in
detail and then examine the documents, dossiers and approvals to Ranbaxy in
India. The regulator will evaluate all documents to see whether there has been any
compromise in safety, quality, efficacy, or even in submitting data for seeking
approvals. Its understood that Ranbaxy could face severe penalty under the Drugs
and Cosmetics Act if it was found guilty of violation of any provision under Indian
law. According to the health ministry source, the drug regulator will initially study
the US courts order and the report of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
and examine the period under their review primarily pre-2005 in the Indian
context.
Early last week, Ranbaxy, which pleaded guilty to making fraudulent statements to
the US FDA about how it tested drugs at two of its Indian plants, agreed to pay a
criminal fine and forfeiture totaling US $150mn and to settle civil claims for US
$350mn in order to resolve fraud allegations made in a whistle-blower's lawsuit
and federal criminal charges. This is the largest false claims case involving a
generics drugs manufacturer in the US. Ranbaxy, in papers filed in Federal court in
Baltimore, admitted it had sold batches of drugs that were improperly
manufactured, stored and tested.
While, the impact of the probe is not certain and will be certain only after the final
verdict on the issues, however the news will continue to be an overhang for the
stock. On the positive side the company has announced some of the major specific
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
actions the Company has been taking in recent years to address certain conduct of
the past and to ensure the safety and efficacy of all Ranbaxy products currently
available in the global market. These actions include:
Enhancing its compliance procedures and policies
Upgrading its business and manufacturing processes
Building a culture of accountability and excellence across all levels of the

organization
Complete reconstitution of the Board of Directors and Executive Management

team
With this development, the legal overhang on the stock continues and the outcome
of which will decide the future growth of the company. We maintain our neutral on
the stock.
JSW Steel reports subdued crude steel production for April

2013
JSW Steel reported subdued crude steel production for the month of April 2013
due to annual shutdowns at their blast furnace facilities in Salem and Vijayanagar.
The crude steel production declined by 11.0% yoy to 0.64mn tonnes. The flat
rolled and long rolled steel production declined 13.0% and 17.0% yoy to 0.45mn
and 0.13mn tonnes respectively. The capacity utilization at Vijayanagar plant was
at 73% due to the annual maintenance shutdown. We maintain our Neutral view
on the stock.
Result Review
L&T (CMP: `1,517/ TP: Under review)
Larsen and Toubro (L&T) posted decent set of numbers for 4QFY2013, which were
broadly in-line with our expectation both on revenue and order inflows front.
However, owing to higher-than-anticipated other income and lower tax rate PAT
came in ahead of our estimate. On the top-line stood, L&T reported decent topline growth of 9.9% yoy to `20,294cr which was in-line with our estimate of
`20,303cr. The decent growth in revenues was mainly driven by pick up in
execution in the engineering and construction (E&C) and machinery & industrial
product segment. On the EBITDA front, performance was as per our expectations
with the company reporting a yoy dip of 180bp to 12.1% in 4QFY2013 against
our expectations of 12.0%. On the bottom line front, L&T reported PAT of `1,788cr
a decline of 6.9% and was higher than our estimate of `1,573cr. The PAT was
higher than our estimate mainly due to huge surge in other income and lower tax
rate. Other income grew 19.2% yoy to `374cr for the quarter.
As of 4QFY2013, L&Ts order backlog stands at `1,53,604cr (excluding slow
moving orders worth `17,000cr) registering a growth of 5.4% yoy. Order inflows
for the quarter came in at `27,929cr (up 24.7% yoy) against our expectation of
`23,000cr.
For FY2014, the management has given a guidance of 15-17% growth in revenue
and 20% growth in order inflow. The guidance is mainly based on (a) high share
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
of exports in both order inflows and revenues (power T&D and hydrocarbon) and
(b) continued momentum in infrastructure segment (building and factories,
railways, airports, etc).
We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from the gradual recovery in the capex
cycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors, strong balance sheet and cash flow
generation as compared to peers. We continue to remain positive on L&T while
our target price is under review.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
68,396
FY2015E
77,435
PAT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
10.5
4,768 77.9 15.5 19.5
2.9
14.0
1.5
10.5
5,465 89.2 15.7 17.0
2.5
12.5
1.3
(` cr)
EPS ROE P/E P/BV

(`)
(%)
Thermax (CMP: `589/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

For 4QFY2013, Thermax reported a 13% yoy decline in top-line to `1,468cr, as
weak order inflow in last year (due to slowdown in investments) dragged down the
company's revenue. Energy segment reported 13.7% yoy decline in revenue to
`1,139cr while environment segment reported 16.8% yoy decline in revenue to
`349cr. However, company's EBITDA margin expanded by 60bp yoy to 10.2%. On
the bottom line front, net profit declined by 11.2% yoy to `115cr. Order backlog
stood at `4,878cr, almost flat yoy. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
5,931
9.6
369
31.0
18.6
19.0
3.3
10.8
0.9
FY2015E
6,592
9.7
409
34.3
17.9
17.2
2.9
9.4
1.0
Jyothy Laboratories (CMP: `175 / TP: Under review)

For 4QFY2012, Jyothy Laboratories (JLL) reported merged numbers of JLL and
Jyothy Consumer Products (JCPL). The companys topline grew by 24.5% yoy and
came in at `273cr against our estimate of `223cr. The revenue from soaps and
detergent segment witnessed a yoy growth of 25.7% and came in at `172cr, and
the revenue from home care segment registered a growth of 2.1% yoy and stood
at `84cr. The companys ad spend for 4QFY2013 stood at `22cr (8% of net sales).
The company reported a contraction in EBITDA margin of 425bp yoy 546bp qoq
and stood at 12.4%. This was mainly due to the restructuring of distribution (~2%
EBITDA loss due to closing of 55 depots across country) and no selling of Ujala,
the flagship brand, for 45 days as the company was in process of changing the
packaging of Ujala (~5% EBITDA loss). The depreciation for the quarter stands at
`16cr which included `11cr of amortization of goodwill which has been
recognized in the books post the amalgamation of JLL and JCPL. Further, there is
no tax reported because after the amalgamation, the company has got a tax
shield due to the carry forward losses of JCPL. Consequently, the company
reported a profit of `14cr.
Given the successful amalgamation and restructuring, we remain positive on the
company from a long term perspective. The stock is currently under review.
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Nagarjuna Construction Company (CMP: `34/ TP: Under review)

NCC posted poor set of numbers for 4QFY2013 below our and street
expectations. On the top line front, NCC reported revenues of `1,741cr in
4QFY2013, indicating a decline of 0.8% yoy, which was lower than our estimate
of `1,879cr. The poor execution was mainly due to slow moving orders and
declining order book. On the EBITDAM front, owing to profit on from sale of real
estate asset the companys EBITDA margins grew by 320bp yoy to 9.0% (our
estimate was 8.5%) in 4QFY2013. Interest cost came in at `113cr a growth of
14.9% yoy. On the bottom line level, NCC reported a yoy growth of 151.9% to
`27cr, lower than our and consensus estimate owing to lower-than-expected
revenue performance and higher tax rate (45%). The current outstanding order
book of NCC stands at `18,555cr as on 4QFY2013, with order inflows of
~`4,000cr for the full year. We continue to remain positive on the stock with Buy
rating on it. The target price is currently under review.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
FY2014E
6,576
8.2
105
FY2015E
7,264
8.2
122
(%)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
4.1
4.2 8.6
0.4
6.2
0.5
4.8
4.7 7.4
0.3
5.9
0.5
Prakash Industries (CMP: `37/ TP: `48/ Upside: 30%)

Prakash Industries reported disappointing profitability performance for 4QFY2013
due to higher costs. Its net sales decreased by 4.3% yoy to `602cr in 4QFY2013
whereas its EBITDA margin dipped by 368bp yoy to 13.3% on account of sharp
rise in input costs and other expenses. EBITDA also dipped by 25.0% yoy to `80cr.
Depreciation increased by 15.9% yoy to `27cr and the Interest expenses increased
by 132.8% yoy to `15cr in 4QFY2013. Consequently, net profit decreased
by 48.9% yoy to `39cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price
of `48.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS ROE P/E P/BV

(%)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
2,668
10.0
68
4.6
3.2 8.1
0.2
4.8
0.5
FY2015E
2,834
10.0
75
5.2
3.4 7.2
0.2
4.6
0.5
TVS Srichakra (CMP: `185 / TP: `252 / Upside: 36%)

For 4QFY2013, TVS Srichakra (TVSSL) registered a topline growth of 5.9% yoy to
`368cr, in line with our estimate of `366cr. The major disappointment came at the
operating margin front which contracted by 317bp on yoy basis to 4.2%,
significantly lower than our estimate of 7.1%. This was attributable to the higher
employee cost and other expenses as a percentage of net sales. The company
reported an other income of `48cr in the quarter, which majorly consisted of one
time income of `37cr (`25.5cr from profit on sale of assets and `11.5cr from
profit on sale of investments). It paid a tax of `11cr. The company reported a profit
of `34cr in the quarter. However, if we exclude the one time other income of
`37cr, the company reported a loss of `3cr.
On annual basis, the company registered a topline growth of 4.8% and reported a
net sales of `1,463cr in line with our expectation of `1,461cr. The operating
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
margin for FY2013 stood at only 4.9% against our estimate of 5.6%. The company
reported a profit of `36cr, however if we exclude the other income of `37cr, then it
would have a loss of `1cr against our estimation of a profit of `5cr.
However, we expect that the companys sales and operating margin will improve
by FY2015E with the expected recovery in the demand for two wheelers and slight
softening in the rubber price. The company has recommended a dividend of `7.5
per share. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 4.4x on FY2015E earnings.
On account of the low valuation, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target
price of `252 based on a target PE of 6.0x for FY2015E.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
1,591
FY2015E
1,739
PAT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(%) (x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
6.1
19 24.5 10.9 7.6
0.8
4.5
0.3
6.6
32 41.9 17.2 4.4
0.7
3.8
0.2
(` cr)
EPS ROE P/E P/BV

(`)
Subros (CMP: `27/ TP: `30/ Upside: 12%)

For 4QFY2013, Subros posted revenue de-growth of 5.8% yoy to `348cr, as
volumes declined by 1.5% yoy, while realizations came in lower by 4.4% yoy. The
EBITDA margin for the company declined by 196bp yoy to 9.5%, primarily due to
36.1% yoy increase in staff costs. On a sequential basis too, it declined by 76bp.
Hence, operating profit de-grew by 21.9% yoy to `33cr. The company reported
other income of `10cr during the quarter, which was almost nil in 4QFY2012. The
reported net profit came in at `9cr as against `35cr in 4QFY2012 (which was
boosted by extraordinary gains of around `29cr), hence on an adjusted basis, net
profit stood at `9cr as against `6cr in 4QFY2012, a growth of 43.1% yoy. At CMP,
the stock is trading at 3.5x FY2015E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating
on the stock with a target price of `35.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
1,426
10.0
FY2015E
1,624
9.9
PAT EPS
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
29 4.9
10.0 4.8
0.5
3.7
0.3
41 6.8
12.7 3.5
0.5
3.2
0.3
(` cr)
(`)
ROE P/E
(%)
Result Preview
SBI (CMP: `2,364/ TP: `2,669/ Upside: 12.9%)
State Bank of India is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. The Net
interest income (NII) is expected to decline by 2.6% yoy to `11,401cr. Non-interest
income is also expected to decline by 2.9% yoy to `5,110cr. The operating
expenses of the bank are expected to increase by 20.8% yoy to `8,908cr (as the
bank is expected to provide for wage revision around `1,000cr during the
quarter). The operating profit is expected to decline by 20.8% yoy to `7,603cr and
the net profit is expected to decline by 17.1% yoy to `3,359cr. At the current
market price, the stock trades at a valuation of 1.3x FY2015E P/ABV. We maintain
our Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with a target price of `2,669.
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Y/E
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
FY2014E
67,091 3.2 16,500
241.2
1,550.1
FY2015E
76,746 3.1 19,182
280.4
1,794.2
March
Op. Inc NIM

(` cr)
(%)
ROE P/E
(x)
P/ABV
(x)
(x)
1.0
16.5 9.8
1.5
1.0
17.0 8.4
1.3
BHEL (CMP: `203 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

We expect Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) to post a 4% yoy decline in top-line to
`18,805cr for 4QFY2013 as industrial slowdown continues to delay execution. On
the EBITDA front, the company's margin is expected to fall by 480bp yoy to 20.4%.
Consequently, we expect PAT to decline by 23.8% yoy to `2,575cr. We maintain
our Neutral recommendation on the stock as we expect tepid order inflow to
continue for next year as well.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E P/BV
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
43,757 17.3
5,113 20.9 23.7
9.7
2.1
5.8
1.0
FY2015E
40,934 16.9
4,642 19.0 18.8 10.7
1.9
5.9
1.0
Tata Steel (CMP: `306/ TP: `430/ Upside: 41%)

Tata Steel is expected to report its consolidated 4QFY2013 results. We expect the
company to post a muted net sales growth of 3.9% yoy to `35,323cr mainly on
account of poor performance from European operations. EBITDA margin is
expected to decline by 111bp yoy to 8.2%. The net profit is however expected to be
increase by 16.4% to `683cr. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a
target price of `430.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
(` cr)
(%)
PAT
EPS
(` cr)
(`)
ROE
P/E P/BV
(%)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
8.4 10.3
0.8
6.0
0.6
0.7
4.8
0.5
FY2014E
140,917 10.0
2,875 29.6
FY2015E
151,537 11.3
5,011 51.6 12.9
5.9
JSW Steel (CPM: `685/ TP: -/ Upside : -)

JSW Steel is slated to announce its 4QFY2013 results today. We expect its
standalone net sales to decline by 7.7% yoy to `8,779cr mainly on account of
lower realizations. The operating margin is expected to contract by 240bp yoy to
15.0% mainly on account of higher costs. Net profit is also expected to decrease
by 51.0% yoy to `271cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2014E
39,440
18.0
FY2015E
41,447
17.7
PAT
(` cr)
EPS ROE P/E P/BV

(`)
(%)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
1,861 83.4
9.0 8.2
0.7
3.6
0.7
2,129 95.4
9.5 7.2
0.7
3.0
0.5
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

BHEL (23/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
18,463
19,260
(4)
10,042
84
4,117
4,937
(17)
1,634
152
22.3
25.6
2,759
3,380
16.3
(18)
1,182
133
JSW Steel Consolidated (23/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
9,135
10,153
(10)
8,866
EBITDA
(18)
1,331
16
1,544
1,887
EBITDA margin (%)
16.9
18.6
Net profit
359
770
(53)
195
84
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
3,730
4,050
(8)
3,396
10
15.0
State Bank of India (23/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
Tata Steel Consolidated (23/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
34,854
33,860
31,822
10
3,251
3,179
2,239
45
9.3
9.4
446
434
7.0
3
(763)
(158)
Crompton Greaves Consolidated (24/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
3,333
3,077
2,972
12
169
213
(21)
8303
EBITDA margin (%)
5.1
6.9
Net profit
74
100
(26)
Net sales
EBITDA
0.1
(189)
(139)
Bharat Forge (25/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
708
956
(26)
661
EBITDA
155
251
(38)
142
EBITDA margin (%)
21.8
26.3
55
55
Net profit
21.6
(1)
48
15
Tata Chemical Consolidated (27/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
3,673
3,398
4,171
(12)
EBITDA
527
541
(3)
536
(2)
EBITDA margin (%)
14.3
15.9
Net profit
199
189
12.9
5
224
(11)
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Colgate (28/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
797
686
16
763
EBITDA
181
170
150
21
EBITDA margin (%)
22.7
24.8
Net profit
141
131
111
27
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,053
2,617
(22)
1,310
57
EBITDA
794
798
(0)
87
812
EBITDA margin (%)
38.7
30.5
Net profit
156
212
(26)
285
(45)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
11,737
10,455
12
12,474
(6)
1,439
768
87
2,002
(28)
EBITDA margin (%)
12.3
7.3
Net profit
853
483
76
1,285
(34)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
7,016
7,563
(7)
6,790
626
865
(28)
582
8.9
11.4
378
640
(41)
434
(13)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
55,821
52,394
52,751
7,148
5,516
30
1,051
580
13
11
6,240
4,631
35
147
4142
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,138
1,386
(18)
912
25
EBITDA
667
994
(33)
614
EBITDA margin (%)
58.7
71.8
Net profit
439
802
19.7
DLF Consolidated (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
6.6
Gail (28/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
16.0
Hindalco Industries (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
8.6
HPCL (28/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
NHPC (28/05/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
67.3
(45)
312
41
Power Grid Corporation (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,116
1,032
1,129
(1)
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Rural Electrification (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,012
763
33
1,027
(1)
Sun Pharmaceutical Consolidated (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
2,992
2,330
28
2,852
EBITDA
1,285
963
33
1,275
EBITDA margin (%)
42.9
41.3
Net profit
912
820
44.7
11
881
Tata Global Beverage Consolidated (28/05/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
4QFY13E
4QFY12
y-o-y (%)
3QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,890
1,724
10
1,902
(1)
EBITDA
199
187
203
(2)
EBITDA margin (%)
10.5
10.9
99
54
Net profit
10.7
83
80
Economic and Political News
8% growth possible if UPA is voted to power again: PM

Finance Minister agrees to `1lakh cr diesel, LPG subsidy for FY2013
Government further cuts import tariff value of gold
Corporate News
Emami bags two international awards for packaging

Oracle Financial to raise up to US$181mn through share sale
Reliance Jio to roll out 4G services in metros by March 2014
SAIL spends `44,536cr on capex in 7 yrs
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
24
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 23, 2013
St Bk of India, BHEL, Tata Steel, JSW Steel , Indraprasth Gas, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories
May 24, 2013
Crompton Greaves, Britannia, SpiceJet
May 25, 2013
Bharat Forge, MOIL, Sarda Energy, Consolidated Co, Siyaram Silk Mills, Force Motors
May 26, 2013

May 27, 2013
May 28, 2013
May 29, 2013
May 30, 2013
Nalco, Tata Chemicals, Bhushan Steel, Bajaj Electrical, GIPCL, TTK Healthcare, Tree House
GAIL, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corpn, NHPC, Hindalco, Rural Elec.Corp., Colgate, HPCL, Tata Global, Tata Comm,
CESC, Jagran Prakashan, Indoco Remedies, Dishman Pharma, PVR, Cravatex
ONGC, NMDC, Tata Motors, BPCL, Cipla, Canara Bank, Mphasis, HDIL, Monnet Ispat, BGR Energy , Anant Raj,
Madhucon Proj, Jyoti Structures, J K Lakshmi Cements, Greenply
IOC, M&M, SAIL, DLF, Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn., Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Unitech, Central Bank,
Suzlon Energy, GSPL, Aurobindo Pharma, Ipca labs, Page Industries, Madras Cements, Sadbhav Engg., Simplex Infra,
IVRCL Infra, Patel Engg.
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
May 23, 2013
6:00PM
US
1:00PM
1:00PM
2:00PM
UK
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
7:30PM
US
May 24, 2013
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
May 28, 2013
7:30PM
US
May 29, 2013
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
May 30, 2013
6:00PM
US
May 31, 2013
11:00AM
India
June 1, 2013
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
June 3, 2013
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
June 5, 2013
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
June 6, 2013
4:30PM
UK
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
June 7, 2013
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
May 18
360.00
345.00
Germany PMI Services
Value
May A
49.60
50.00
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
May A
48.10
48.50
% Change
1Q P
0.60
0.60
GDP (YoY)
Value
May A
(22.30)
(21.80)
Thousands
Apr
417.00
425.00
% Change
1Q F
(1.40)
(1.40)
S.A./ 1985=100
May
68.10
70.00
Thousands
May
4.00
--
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
1Q S
2.50
2.50
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
1Q
4.50
4.80
Value
May
50.60
--
New home sales

Consumer Confidence
BOE Announces rates
Value
May
49.80
--
% Change
1Q P
(0.20)
--
% Ratio
Jun 6
0.50
0.50
Jun 6
0.50
--
Thousands
May
165.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
May
7.50
--
June 8, 2013
4:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
May
14.70
--
June 9, 2013
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
May
2.40
--
11:00AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
May
9.30
--
4:29PM
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
May
10.96
--
4:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
May
1.68
--
June 11, 2013
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr
(1.40)
--
June 12, 2013
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
May
(7.30)
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Apr
2.50
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
May F
1.20
--
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
May
(0.70)
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
May
(0.53)
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
May
4.89
--
June 10, 2013
June 14, 2013
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.2
9.2
6.0
4.0
(0.1)
(1.3)
Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.5
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.6
Nov-12
(4.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.6
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
Apr-12
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
0.5
(2.0)
8.0
2.5
2.4
2.0
Oct-12
4.5
2QFY10
2.5
2.0
5.3 5.5 5.3
Sep-12
6.0
Aug-12
6.5
5.7
Mar-13
7.5
Jul-12
7.6
7.5
8.2
Jun-12
8.5
May-12
9.0
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.3
56.0
6.8
6.0
4.9
54.0
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Feb-12
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
50.0
May-12
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
8.4
8.0
1QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
15.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
7.50
8.00
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
(15.0)
Apr-12
3.00
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
0.0
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
140
2,719
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
18.2
15.7
3.8
3.2
22.2
21.9
1.6
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
156
232
6,885
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
7.6
6.7
1.3
1.1
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
245
285
4,181
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.3
12.0
3.2
2.6
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
89
104
4,488
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
6.9
6.0
1.1
1.0
17.5
17.3
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
23
27
6,146
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
22.1
10.4
1.9
1.7
6.2
12.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
260
393
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
15.1
9.6
1.4
1.3
9.5
14.0
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,851
2,056
53,553
22,684
25,908
18.0
18.5
117.3
137.1
15.8
13.5
5.7
4.5
39.9
37.2
2.0
1.7
Bharat Forge
Neutral
229
5,339
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.8
13.3
2.1
1.9
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.9
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,150
28,729
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
24.5
20.9
4.4
3.7
18.0
17.9
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
111
170
379
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.7
2.3
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
140
150
11,904
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
17.9
15.3
3.0
2.6
18.1
18.2
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,466
2,436
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.6
13.4
2.4
2.1
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,651
1,819
32,965
25,274
27,658
14.1
13.7
110.2
139.9
15.0
11.8
5.5
4.3
39.8
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
115
154
473
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
3.1
2.6
0.5
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
991
60,861
44,550
50,260
11.4
11.7
59.6
68.3
16.6
14.5
3.4
2.9
22.3
21.6
1.1
1.0
1,687
1,847
50,973
48,455
55,723
11.2
10.9
107.8
123.2
15.7
13.7
2.4
2.0
16.2
16.0
0.9
0.8
218
12,807
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
17.4
14.7
4.3
3.4
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Accumulate
27
30
160
1,479
1,685
10.0
9.9
5.5
7.5
4.9
3.6
0.5
0.5
11.1
13.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
292
324
77,727 206,341 227,695
12.8
13.5
32.3
39.0
9.0
7.5
1.9
1.6
23.1
23.2
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Neutral
38
1,798
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
7.6
6.5
1.3
1.1
18.1
18.5
0.2
0.1
Maruti
Accumulate
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
644
461
13,652
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
55.9
38.0
5.1
4.9
9.3
13.1
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
198
1,429
4,114
4,886
11.4
10.7
24.9
28.0
8.0
7.1
1.1
1.0
25.2
22.6
0.7
0.6
BHEL
Neutral
203
49,784
43,757
40,934
17.3
16.9
20.9
19.0
9.7
10.7
2.1
1.9
23.7
18.8
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
168
230
1,511
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
18.1
14.3
3.0
2.6
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Accumulate
108
117
6,951
13,790
15,095
6.4
7.4
6.9
9.4
15.7
11.6
1.8
1.6
11.7
14.5
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Accumulate
29
34
239
3,074
3,355
9.0
8.8
8.7
10.2
3.3
2.9
0.3
0.3
10.4
11.1
0.3
0.2
KEC International
Buy
46
63
1,180
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
7.6
5.4
1.0
0.8
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
589
7,012
5,931
6,592
9.6
9.7
31.0
34.3
19.0
17.2
3.3
2.9
18.6
17.9
1.0
0.9
1,222
1,361
22,943
11,979
13,254
19.7
21.3
77.1
91.4
15.9
13.4
2.8
2.5
18.7
20.0
1.7
1.4
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
186
28,756
10,232
11,762
23.5
24.5
10.3
12.2
18.1
15.3
3.0
2.7
17.2
18.6
2.3
1.9
India Cements
Neutral
76
2,336
4,777
5,276
17.3
17.1
8.8
10.9
8.6
7.0
0.6
0.6
7.5
8.8
0.9
0.8
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
101
143
1,186
2,313
2,728
19.8
20.7
16.6
23.1
6.1
4.4
0.8
0.7
13.6
16.5
1.1
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
250
5,956
4,293
4,855
27.4
28.6
21.8
28.2
11.5
8.9
2.1
1.7
19.6
21.3
1.8
1.5
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,918
17,132
6,540
7,452
27.4
26.6
319.7
369.9
15.4
13.3
3.8
3.0
27.5
25.4
2.0
1.6
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,953
53,560
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
18.4
16.3
3.0
2.6
17.7
17.3
2.6
2.2
204
255
1,072
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
18.0
22.2
11.3
9.2
1.0
0.9
10.2
10.1
2.0
1.9
12
215
2,281
2,492
5.9
6.9
0.7
2.0
17.1
5.8
0.4
0.4
2.3
6.5
0.4
0.3
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
123
157
4,101
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
7.9
7.4
1.1
1.0
15.2
14.5
3.5
3.8
ITNL
Buy
175
230
3,407
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.9
5.5
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.2
2.6
2.6
IVRCL Infra
Buy
21
35
637
6,287
6,836
8.5
8.5
2.3
3.0
8.9
6.8
0.3
0.3
3.4
4.2
0.6
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Accumulate
73
90
16,288
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
29.0
25.7
1.2
1.1
4.2
4.7
3.0
2.9
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
1,517
1,795
93,427
69,586
79,247
11.2
11.1
75.1
84.9
20.2
17.9
2.9
2.5
15.2
15.0
1.6
1.4
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
34
45
881
6,576
7,264
8.2
8.3
4.1
4.8
8.4
7.2
0.3
0.3
4.2
4.7
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
48
1,597
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
94.8
51.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
109
153
1,645
2,511
2,736
10.6
10.6
7.3
7.8
15.0
14.0
1.9
1.7
13.3
12.7
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
106
164
525
6,824
7,563
9.2
9.4
18.0
23.4
5.9
4.5
0.4
0.4
6.9
8.3
0.5
0.4
Unity Infra
Buy
32
45
238
2,455
2,734
13.4
13.0
14.6
14.9
2.2
2.2
0.3
0.2
12.3
11.3
0.5
0.5
125
149
6,225
7,137
7,907
2.9
2.8
32.3
36.0
3.9
3.5
0.6
0.5
14.2
14.2
90
5,022
5,254
5,900
2.8
2.8
21.2
22.9
4.2
3.9
0.6
0.6
13.3
13.0
Financials
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
Andhra Bank
Neutral
Axis Bank
Buy
1,514
1,853
70,953
19,055
22,710
3.3
3.2
130.7
152.3
11.6
9.9
1.9
1.6
17.2
17.6
Bank of Baroda
Buy
714
851
30,057
16,365
18,781
2.2
2.3
121.3
142.5
5.9
5.0
0.9
0.8
15.1
15.7
Bank of India
Accumulate
316
361
18,836
14,482
16,383
2.3
2.3
58.1
68.1
5.4
4.6
0.8
0.7
14.4
15.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
59
62
3,873
4,451
4,792
3.2
3.0
13.2
14.1
4.4
4.1
0.7
0.6
17.5
16.5
Canara Bank
Neutral
442
19,578
11,928
13,467
2.1
2.2
74.8
86.0
5.9
5.1
0.8
0.7
13.7
14.2
Central Bank
Neutral
70
7,270
8,249
9,211
2.4
2.5
14.9
18.2
4.7
3.8
0.7
0.6
12.5
13.8
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
416
476
6,364
5,558
6,121
2.0
2.0
98.4
107.7
4.2
3.9
0.6
0.6
14.9
14.5
Dena Bank
Neutral
90
3,161
3,187
3,582
2.3
2.4
23.8
25.5
3.8
3.5
0.6
0.5
15.9
15.1
Federal Bank
Neutral
463
7,918
2,873
3,413
3.0
3.1
52.7
62.0
8.8
7.5
1.1
1.0
13.4
14.2
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Neutral
898
138,968
8,573
10,142
3.6
3.6
37.0
43.6
24.3
20.6
5.0
4.5
30.0
30.3
HDFC Bank
Neutral
703
167,490
27,682
33,916
4.6
4.6
35.3
42.7
19.9
16.5
3.9
3.3
21.3
21.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,210
1,444
139,617
25,705
30,330
3.1
3.2
83.9
96.3
14.4
12.6
1.9
1.7
15.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Neutral
88
11,695
9,477
10,678
2.0
2.1
19.6
22.6
4.5
3.9
0.6
0.5
12.8
13.4
Indian Bank
Buy
156
186
6,696
6,185
6,978
3.0
3.0
37.0
42.2
4.2
3.7
0.6
0.6
14.8
15.1
IOB
Neutral
62
5,734
8,142
8,956
2.5
2.5
16.5
20.7
3.8
3.0
0.5
0.4
11.8
13.4
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,272
6,166
3,032
3,118
3.8
3.5
218.1
200.9
5.8
6.3
1.1
1.0
19.9
16.0
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
276
290
13,916
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
10.9
9.4
1.9
1.7
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Neutral
263
7,670
6,835
7,588
2.6
2.6
56.5
63.8
4.7
4.1
0.6
0.6
13.1
13.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
807
994
28,538
20,876
23,929
3.3
3.4
151.7
177.0
5.3
4.6
0.9
0.7
16.1
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Accumulate
Syndicate Bank
25
3,331
1,839
2,091
2.9
2.8
4.2
4.5
5.9
5.5
1.0
0.9
18.2
17.0
2,364
2,669
161,726
67,091
76,746
3.2
3.1
241.2
280.4
9.8
8.4
1.5
1.3
16.5
17.0
Neutral
131
7,867
7,238
8,249
2.7
2.6
27.1
30.4
4.8
4.3
0.7
0.7
16.1
15.9
UCO Bank
Neutral
77
5,814
6,126
6,665
2.6
2.5
12.2
14.4
6.3
5.4
1.0
0.8
11.8
12.6
Union Bank
Accumulate
230
260
13,741
11,229
12,794
2.6
2.6
40.7
48.2
5.7
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.6
15.4
United Bank
Accumulate
58
64
2,168
3,597
4,008
2.6
2.7
16.0
20.8
3.6
2.8
0.4
0.4
12.5
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
53
2,604
2,730
3,059
1.9
2.0
10.2
11.3
5.2
4.6
0.6
0.6
11.8
12.0
Yes Bank
Neutral
511
18,324
4,390
5,411
2.8
2.8
41.6
47.9
12.3
10.7
2.6
2.2
23.2
22.1
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,832
46,349
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
34.1
29.7
10.8
8.6
35.4
32.2
3.6
3.0
Britannia
Neutral
565
6,757
6,417
7,446
5.1
5.5
20.3
25.2
27.9
22.5
9.5
7.5
37.4
37.3
1.0
0.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,414
19,224
3,588
4,130
21.1
21.6
44.7
51.9
31.6
27.3
28.5
21.2
100.0
89.1
5.2
4.5
Dabur India
Neutral
157
27,399
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
29.3
25.0
11.4
8.9
41.5
40.1
3.7
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,926
20,716
3,617
4,260
16.1
16.4
120.6
146.4
40.8
33.6
12.6
10.2
33.8
33.4
5.2
4.4
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
838
28,504
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
33.3
28.2
7.2
6.0
24.9
24.2
3.8
3.3
HUL
Neutral
585
126,569
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
34.3
31.8
32.9
23.8
113.4
87.0
4.2
3.7
ITC
Neutral
336
265,344
33,506
39,067
36.8
37.0
11.1
13.0
30.3
25.9
9.8
8.0
35.5
34.1
7.6
6.4
Marico
Neutral
219
14,088
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
30.1
25.2
5.9
4.8
21.4
21.0
2.7
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
5,220
50,329
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
41.0
33.9
20.5
14.8
57.7
50.7
5.2
4.4
Tata Global
Neutral
143
8,821
7,998
8,798
9.7
9.8
7.9
8.7
18.1
16.4
2.2
2.1
9.6
9.8
1.0
0.9
FMCG
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
743
863
51,746
28,633
32,216
21.5
20.7
57.3
61.7
13.0
12.0
3.1
2.6
24.0
21.5
1.6
1.3
Hexaware*
Buy
78
96
2,316
2,091
2,289
19.0
18.8
10.6
11.3
7.3
6.8
1.6
1.5
22.8
21.7
0.9
0.8
Infosys
Neutral
2,388
137,148
43,338
47,244
27.5
27.7
169.4
182.6
14.1
13.1
2.9
2.5
20.8
19.3
2.5
2.2
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
165
185
1,842
1,956
2,174
17.9
17.7
20.4
21.9
8.1
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.7
13.7
0.6
0.4
KPIT Cummins
Buy
111
135
2,144
2,513
2,819
16.1
15.5
12.6
14.0
8.8
7.9
1.5
1.3
17.9
16.6
0.8
0.6
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
110
126
12,957
8,456
9,385
19.3
19.1
10.6
11.9
10.4
9.3
2.3
1.9
22.4
20.1
1.1
0.9
Mindtree
Accumulate
815
920
3,385
2,599
2,871
19.4
19.2
85.2
92.3
9.6
8.8
2.0
1.6
21.4
18.9
1.0
0.8
Mphasis&
Reduce
452
395
9,487
6,096
6,646
17.6
17.4
38.1
41.6
11.9
10.9
1.7
1.5
14.2
13.7
1.0
0.8
NIIT
Buy
22
30
357
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
5.0
4.0
0.5
0.5
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Buy
514
593
2,056
1,445
1,617
25.2
25.0
55.3
59.3
9.3
8.7
1.7
1.4
18.2
16.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Accumulate
1,495
1,585
292,653
71,833
81,893
28.4
28.0
78.5
88.0
19.0
17.0
5.8
4.7
30.2
27.9
3.8
3.3
Tech Mahindra
Buy
943
1,180
12,107
7,699
8,315
19.3
18.1
107.0
115.0
8.8
8.2
1.9
1.6
21.7
19.1
1.5
1.3
Wipro
Accumulate
342
385
84,251
40,173
43,697
20.4
20.6
26.2
28.5
13.1
12.0
2.6
2.2
19.7
18.4
1.6
1.3
D B Corp
Buy
248
285
4,552
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
17.5
14.8
3.8
3.2
23.4
23.4
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Buy
97
117
2,284
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
11.8
10.7
1.3
1.2
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
92
121
3,040
1,698
1,908
23.9
24.5
7.4
8.4
12.4
10.9
3.1
2.7
26.7
26.8
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
336
1,332
1,343
1,521
18.8
18.9
18.3
22.9
18.3
14.7
1.7
1.9
10.6
12.3
1.0
0.9
Sun TV Network
Neutral
418
16,467
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
20.9
17.9
5.2
4.5
26.4
27.3
6.9
6.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
463
10,489
13,794
17,335
30.7
34.8
48.9
83.6
9.5
5.5
1.0
0.9
11.2
16.7
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Accumulate
310
345
195,586
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.9
10.0
3.0
2.6
37.6
36.2
1.8
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
17
24
569
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
13.8
6.7
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.6
0.2
GMDC
Buy
143
213
4,532
1,944
2,317
49.9
51.7
20.8
25.6
6.9
5.6
1.5
1.2
24.3
24.6
1.9
1.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
117
145
49,500
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
7.3
6.7
1.3
1.1
19.4
18.4
1.8
1.3
Hindalco
Neutral
110
21,127
88,987
94,163
9.2
9.7
13.8
15.9
8.0
7.0
0.6
0.5
7.6
8.1
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
685
15,278
39,524
42,064
17.1
16.9
71.8
86.3
9.5
7.9
0.8
0.7
8.6
9.6
0.7
0.6
MOIL
Accumulate
214
243
3,592
954
1,062
45.5
47.4
26.1
29.1
8.2
7.4
1.2
1.1
15.1
15.2
1.4
1.1
Monnet Ispat
Buy
181
291
1,156
2,883
3,181
21.7
23.6
40.3
57.7
4.5
3.2
0.4
0.4
10.1
13.0
1.3
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
34
8,866
8,187
8,416
14.5
14.7
3.2
3.3
10.8
10.6
0.7
0.7
6.8
6.7
0.6
0.6
NMDC
Buy
121
179
48,052
10,329
12,540
73.8
75.0
16.6
19.0
7.3
6.4
1.4
1.2
20.6
20.2
2.5
1.9
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
59
24,367
53,685
64,183
9.3
12.2
5.5
8.3
10.8
7.2
0.6
0.5
5.4
7.7
0.8
0.8
Sesa Goa
Neutral
161
13,997
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.4
5.4
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.6
3.8
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
95
31,758
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
5.2
4.7
0.6
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.7
0.6
Tata Steel
Buy
306
430
29,690 141,775 151,672
10.5
11.4
35.3
51.7
8.7
5.9
0.6
0.6
7.6
10.3
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
106
153
380
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.4
2.9
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
37
48
502
2,668
2,834
10.0
10.1
4.6
5.2
8.1
7.3
0.2
0.2
3.2
3.4
0.5
0.5
Buy
84
118
274
2,425
2,552
13.7
14.8
33.5
45.3
2.5
1.8
0.3
0.2
11.2
13.1
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Accumulate
290
345
55,312
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.4
5.8
0.8
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.1
1.8
GAIL
Neutral
331
41,999
55,815
63,013
15.3
15.2
35.9
41.5
9.2
8.0
1.5
1.3
17.0
17.1
0.6
0.5
ONGC
Accumulate
329
354
281,390 157,962 175,367
35.1
36.2
34.3
39.3
9.6
8.4
1.7
1.5
18.2
18.6
1.6
1.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
818
264,078 380,031 407,721
9.9
69.3
69.3
78.0
11.8
10.5
1.2
1.1
11.5
11.7
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
247
3,165
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
10.4
9.6
2.9
2.5
29.6
28.2
0.7
0.7
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
284
3,970
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.6
30.4
10.7
9.3
2.2
1.9
22.6
21.7
1.2
0.9
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
141
167
10,609
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
9.4
8.5
2.0
1.7
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
61
3,433
1,079
983
91.8
91.9
8.8
7.8
7.0
7.8
1.2
1.0
17.8
14.1
3.0
3.2
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
124
139
2,343
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
11.6
8.9
3.7
2.7
35.0
34.7
1.5
1.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
182
264
5,307
6,279
7,033
16.0
16.0
15.2
19.2
12.0
9.5
1.6
1.3
19.2
18.0
1.4
1.2
Aventis*
Neutral
2,492
5,738
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
27.0
25.1
3.8
3.8
15.7
14.8
3.1
2.5
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
787
962
16,104
7,386
8,863
18.0
18.0
39.5
48.1
19.9
16.4
4.5
3.7
24.8
24.7
2.5
2.1
Cipla
Accumulate
415
463
33,341
9,130
10,543
24.8
23.0
21.6
23.2
19.2
17.9
3.1
2.7
17.6
16.2
3.4
2.8
Dr Reddy's
Buy
2,057
2,535
34,913
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
18.3
16.2
3.9
3.2
23.5
21.8
2.7
2.3
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
Neutral
70
206
566
1,536
1,739
20.2
20.9
15.4
20.6
4.6
3.4
0.5
0.4
11.6
13.7
1.0
0.8
2,277
19,291
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
29.7
27.3
8.9
8.1
31.1
31.0
5.9
5.3
62
90
568
784
902
15.2
15.2
7.8
9.0
7.9
6.9
1.2
1.0
15.6
15.8
1.0
0.8
Accumulate
583
676
7,354
3,474
4,168
21.0
21.0
37.3
45.1
15.6
12.9
3.7
2.9
26.4
25.3
2.3
1.9
Lupin
Accumulate
769
877
34,401
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
22.1
18.4
5.2
4.1
26.2
24.8
3.0
2.4
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
431
18,240
11,400
12,060
10.5
10.5
17.5
22.5
24.6
19.2
4.0
3.4
17.0
19.1
1.6
1.5
Sun Pharma
Neutral
1,002
103,595
12,563
14,698
42.6
42.6
29.8
35.5
33.6
28.2
6.0
5.0
19.2
19.3
7.3
6.1
72
78
1,088
1,535
1,570
31.9
31.6
13.1
14.1
5.5
5.1
0.7
0.6
12.4
12.2
1.0
0.8
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Neutral
155
127,516
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
11.5
10.7
1.4
1.3
12.8
12.7
2.4
2.3
DLF
Buy
227
288
40,418
9,699
12,010
37.0
36.9
6.0
8.4
38.1
27.0
1.4
1.4
3.8
5.1
5.8
4.7
MLIFE
Accumulate
398
446
1,627
888
1,002
26.7
25.9
36.3
40.6
11.0
9.8
1.2
1.1
10.8
11.0
2.1
1.9
Bharti Airtel
Accumulate
312
338
118,407
86,592
95,860
31.4
31.8
10.9
14.5
28.6
21.4
2.2
2.0
7.7
9.3
2.0
1.7
Idea Cellular
Neutral
131
43,358
25,122
27,663
27.0
27.2
4.0
4.8
33.0
27.5
2.8
2.5
8.3
9.1
2.1
1.9
Rcom
Neutral
110
22,673
22,801
24,628
31.0
31.3
3.6
5.3
30.8
20.9
0.7
0.7
2.2
3.1
2.6
2.3
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
20.4
17.5
4.1
3.5
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,451
1,659
3,083
1,863
2,081
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
172
237
1,717
3,929
4,480
7.4
7.7
15.5
19.7
11.1
8.7
1.9
1.6
17.4
18.7
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
451
562
571
630
795
14.4
13.6
42.8
51.1
10.6
8.8
2.5
2.0
26.6
25.2
0.9
0.7
Cravatex
Buy
340
566
88
308
351
7.0
7.0
39.6
47.2
8.6
7.2
1.9
1.5
21.8
21.0
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
54
68
824
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.4
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.3
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
398
570
518
2,299
2,621
4.7
4.9
46.3
57.0
8.6
7.0
0.4
0.4
5.0
5.8
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Buy
276
352
636
1,453
1,560
9.4
9.8
38.4
41.4
7.2
6.7
1.5
1.3
22.9
20.8
0.3
0.2
Hitachi
Buy
153
177
415
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
11.1
8.6
1.6
1.3
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.4
2,500
2,210
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
22.2
18.9
2.8
2.5
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
Honeywell Automation* Neutral

IFB Agro
Buy
165
198
148
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.6
4.2
0.8
0.7
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
180
234
207
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
9.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
4.9
6.3
0.6
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
175
2,814
979
1,164
14.9
15.1
6.0
7.7
29.0
22.6
3.6
3.3
12.9
15.1
2.9
2.4
MRF
Neutral
15,335
6,504
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0
8.6
8.5
1.8
1.5
23.5
19.2
0.6
0.6
Page Industries
Reduce
3,783
3,637
4,219
1,047
1,281
19.6
19.8
127.3
158.1
29.7
23.9
14.2
10.3
54.9
50.0
4.2
3.4
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
620
791
744
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
13.5
10.2
2.8
2.3
23.0
24.6
0.8
0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
264
312
247
1,157
1,320
11.9
12.0
66.6
77.9
4.0
3.4
0.7
0.6
18.3
18.2
0.5
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
434
617
763
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
11.4
9.8
1.6
1.4
14.5
14.7
0.8
0.7
TAJ GVK
Buy
62
108
387
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.8
6.8
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.4
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
297
371
458
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.6
4.3
0.6
0.6
14.5
13.8
0.2
TTK Healthcare
Accumulate
521
553
404
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
21.4
15.6
3.5
3.0
17.6
20.8
0.7
0.6
Tree House
Accumulate
259
275
933
150
192
52.7
52.5
12.8
16.2
20.2
16.0
2.0
1.8
10.0
11.1
5.8
4.4
TVS Srichakra
Buy
186
226
142
1,591
1,739
7.1
7.4
39.4
56.5
4.7
3.3
0.9
0.8
20.6
25.0
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
2,484
32,490
11,886
13,491
14.4
14.0
50.9
74.5
48.8
33.4
4.0
3.6
10.6
11.4
2.9
2.6
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
370
439
751
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.4
10.1
1.9
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Others
Vesuvius India*
Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 22, 2013
Market Outlook
May 23, 2013

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

May 23, 2013

OIL & GAS

Net Inflows (May 21, 2013)

FII Derivatives (May 22, 2013)

Oil ministry gives in-principle nod to export parity pricing

Ranbaxy Labs - Under Drugs Controller General of India

Enhancing its compliance procedures and policies

Upgrading its business and manufacturing processes

Building a culture of accountability and excellence across all levels of the

Complete reconstitution of the Board of Directors and Executive Management

JSW Steel reports subdued crude steel production for April

4,768 77.9 15.5 19.5

5,465 89.2 15.7 17.0

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

Thermax (CMP: `589/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Jyothy Laboratories (CMP: `175 / TP: Under review)

Nagarjuna Construction Company (CMP: `34/ TP: Under review)

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

Prakash Industries (CMP: `37/ TP: `48/ Upside: 30%)

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

TVS Srichakra (CMP: `185 / TP: `252 / Upside: 36%)

19 24.5 10.9 7.6

32 41.9 17.2 4.4

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

Subros (CMP: `27/ TP: `30/ Upside: 12%)

67,091 3.2 16,500

76,746 3.1 19,182

Op. Inc NIM

BHEL (CMP: `203 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

5,113 20.9 23.7

4,642 19.0 18.8 10.7

Tata Steel (CMP: `306/ TP: `430/ Upside: 41%)

5,011 51.6 12.9

JSW Steel (CPM: `685/ TP: -/ Upside : -)

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

JSW Steel Consolidated (23/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

State Bank of India (23/05/2013)

Tata Steel Consolidated (23/05/2013)

Crompton Greaves Consolidated (24/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Bharat Forge (25/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

Tata Chemical Consolidated (27/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

DLF Consolidated (28/05/2013)

Hindalco Industries (28/05/2013)

Power Grid Corporation (28/05/2013)

Rural Electrification (28/05/2013)

Sun Pharmaceutical Consolidated (28/05/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)