Romanian Statistical Review Supplement First Quarter 2013

Institutul Naional de Statistic
Societatea Romn de Statistic
REVISTA ROMN DE STATISTIC - SUPLIMENT ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW - SUPPLEMENT -
Scientific research Themes/Studies Papers at the National Seminary Octav Onicescu 2013 / Trim. I
Autorii poart ntreaga rspundere pentru coninutul materialelor publicate, revista i Societatea Romn de Statistic fiind exonerate de orice rspundere.
ISSN 1018-046x
CUPRINS
Non-linear Regression used in Economic Analysis ................................... 7 Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Andreea Gabriela BALTAC PhD Student Ligia PRODAN PhD Student Theoretical and Methodological Considerations on the Public Offers ........................................................................................................... 19 Claudia Catalina SAVA, PhD Student Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Inflation Analysis ......................... 25 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD Prof. Vergil VOINEAGU PhD Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Some Operational Aspects Relating to Quality Management and Total Quality Management ................................................................ 32 Associate Professor Sorin GRESOI PhD Associate Professor Aurelian DIACONU PhD Non-parametrical Estimation of the Regression used in Economic Analyses....................................................................................................... 38 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Liviu BEGU PhD Georgeta BARDAU PhD Student Sales Force Motivation and Compensation ............................................. 44 Assoc. prof. Anca-Mihaela TEAU PhD New Global Financial Regulatory Framework ....................................... 51 Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student Gross Domestic Product/inhabitant and Occupation of the Labor Force...................................................................................... 57 Ligia PRODAN PhD Student A Study of the Relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility - Financial Performance - Firm Size ............................... 62 Prof. Georgeta VINTIL, PhD Florinita DUCA, PhD Student
Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment
Analyzing the Domestic Trade and Public Nourishment Activity Statistical System of Indicators ................................................................. 68 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Constantin MITRU PhD Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Adina Mihaela DINU PhD Student Conditional Probability and Econometric Models ................................. 77 Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Lecturer Andrei HREBENCIUC PhD Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student Model of Matrix-based Regression used in Economic Analyses............ 81 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Georgeta BARDAU PhD Student Ligia PRODAN PhD Student Performance Management or Performance Based Management? ....... 85 Lecturer Ph.D. Cristina PROTOPOPESCU Conflicts Management in Constructions Projects................................... 90 Associate Professor Cibela NEAGU, PhD Associate Professor Cezar BRAICU, PhD The Economy of Romania during the Period 2000-2012........................ 96 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Vergil VOINEAGU PhD Diana Valentina SOARE PhD Student Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student The Company Overall Performance Accounting and Some Statistical Management Tools ................................................................. 105 Assistant Marian AICU, PhD student Associate Professor Gheorghe SVOIU PhD Master student ec. Malvina FLOREA Partially Studied Models Based on Discreet Variables ........................ 119 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Andreea Gabriela BALTAC PhD Student Claudia Ctlina SAVA PhD Student Some Accounting Issues and Statistics about Romania and EU Funds - Absorption through Projects and Eligible Expenses .............. 126 Senior Lecturer Gheorghe SVOIU PhD Lecturer Mariana BNU Lecturer Mihaela GDOIU
Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment
Unele consideraii despre managementul resurselor materiale i logistic .................................................................................................. 137 Prof. univ. dr. Mircea UDRESCU Drd. Sandu CUTURELA Raportul dintre cifra de afaceri si personalul din IMMModel de analiz ....................................................................................................... 148 Lect.univ.dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA Asist.univ.drd. Raluca Mariana DRAGOESCU Drd. Georgeta BARDAU Cu privire la conceptul de Management societal informatizat ............ 153 Nicolae COSTAKE Provocri majore n vederea dezvoltrii pe mai departe a statisticii oficiale ....................................................................................................... 169 Prof. univ. dr. Ioan PARTACHI Prof. univ. dr. Liviu BEGU Conf. univ. dr. Oleg VEREJAN Drd. Oleg CARA Sistemul decizional - informaional ........................................................ 175 Drd. Valentin BICHIR Dr. Drago BGU Evoluia investiiilor strine n Romnia pn la sfritul anului 2012 i impactul asupra creterii economice ......................................... 188 Conf. univ. dr. Cristian SOCOL Prof. univ. dr. Constantin MITRU Prof. univ. dr. Radu Titus MARINESCU Drd. Adina Mihaela DINU Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Aspecte teoretice privind portofoliile de instrumente financiare concept i tipologie ................................................................................... 194 Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Drd. Adina - Mihaela DINU Utilizarea metodelor statistice n evaluarea riscului financiar ........... 198 Conf. univ. dr. Emanuela IONESCU Asistent univ. dr. Amelia DIACONU Asistent univ. dr. Alina GHEORGHE Model de analiz SWOT a pieei de capital din Romnia.................... 203 Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Asistent univ. drd. Zoica NICOLA Consideraii privind intenia de colaborare n afaceri (affectio societatis) ................................................................................................... 207 Conf. univ. dr. Anca POPESCU-CRUCERU
Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment 5
Impactul investiiilor strine directe asupra cuantumului i dinamicii prelevrilor fiscale................................................................... 212 Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Provocri privind creterea capacitii Sistemului Statistic Naional ...................................................................................... 222 Prof. univ. dr. Ioan PARTACHI Prof. univ. dr. Marin DINU Drd. Oleg CARA Noi paradigme de securitate n globalizare ........................................... 234 Drd. Valentin BICHIR Marketingul n jurnalismul sportiv actual ............................................ 242 Asist. univ. Drd. Cristian GHENA Modele de construcie a portofoliilor de instrumente financiare ........ 245 Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Metode de ierarhizare utilizate n analiza statistic a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii n profil regional................................. 251 Lect.univ.dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA Conf.univ.dr. Elena BUGUDUI Lect.univ.dr. Ctlin DEATCU Factorii care influenteaza investitiile ..................................................... 256 Lector univ. dr. Drago Gabriel MECU Aspecte privind managementul portofoliilor metode i modele utilizate ..................................................................................... 259 Prof. univ. dr. Radu Titus MARINESCU Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Investiiile strine directe n Romnia n perioada 2003 - 2012 .......... 266 Prof. univ. dr. Marin DINU Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Utilizarea eficient a factorilor de producie ......................................... 285 Prof. univ. dr. Alina Costina BRBULESCU TUDORACHE Ec. Mdlin BRBULESCU TUDORACHE Corelaia dintre valoarea Produsului Intern Brut al Romniei i cea a principalilor factori de influen ............................................... 291 Lector univ.dr. Ctlin DEATCU Lector univ.dr. Florin LILEA Asistent univ. Zoica NICOLA Utilizarea comparat a modelelor CAPM i APT n analizele bursiere...................................................................................... 295 Dr. Florin PIELEANU Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU
6 Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment
Non-linear Regression used in Economic Analysis

Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Andreea Gabriela BALTAC PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Ligia PRODAN PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Bucharest Abstract The evolution of economic phenomena do not evolve as linear trajectories, and trajectories can be nonlinear. Analysis of correlations between economic variables can be done by linear functions which are linearized transformations. Do so for the present nonlinear model into an equivalent simple and easy to interpret parameter values or to estimate them. Key words: evolution, correlations, models JEL Classification: C01, C50
General frame The evolution of the economic phenomena does not develop according linear trajectories but can take non-linear trajectories as well. The analysis of the correlations between the economic variables can be performed depending on non-linear functions also, which are linearized by transformations. We proceed likewise in order to submit the non-linear model in a simple equivalent form, allowing an easy interpretation of the parameters values or their estimation. Thus, if the dependence between two variables is shown by the non-linear model of regression y i a xi i , , through logarithmic procedure, we get the regression linear model yi = ln b + ln a xi + ln i . When estimating a regression non-linear model we proceed as follows: - we estimate the parameters applying the method of the smallest squares; - through transformations, we linearize the non-linear function and then we estimate the parameters applying the method of the smallest squares; - we establish the parameters through numerical methods.
Linearization models for the non-linear models We submit the semi-logarithmic and the double logarithmic models which can be linearized: The logarithmic model can be either without free term or with free term. The free term model (log-log) is of the dependence form, respectively:
y i = ax ib i
and b R . Depending of the sign of the parameter In this model a R+ b the properties of the resulting characteristic are set up. If this parameter is positive, the resulting characteristic has an up warding trajectory. The down warding trajectory of the resulting characteristic is emphasized, in the case of the regression non-linear model, by the negative value of the resulting characteristic exponent. Applying the logarithms the double logarithmic model results log yi = log a + blog xi + log i
Using the substitutions
y i = k = log y i , xi = log xi a = log i ,the

becomes:
regression
linear
model
y i = a + bxi + i
We estimate the two parameters of the regression linear model and establish the parameter a which appears in the regression linear model:
= 10 a a
The free term model (log-log) holds, in addition, a free term and shows under the following form:
y i = a 0 + axib i
In the case of this model applying the previous procedure of linearization is no more possible. In order to estimate the parameters, one of the following two methods applies: - when a value of the free term of the model is specified, then, using the notations vi = y i a 0 and u i = xi , we get the regression model y i = ax ib i . In this respect, parameters are estimated according to the case of the double logarithmic model; - then we estimate the three parameters of the model through numerical models. It is possible to transform the model into a linear one using the development of the Taylor series. We submit a number of properties of the parameters which are needed for interpreting the model parameters and the characteristics of the factorial variable in
connection with the parameters values. The interpretations are achieved in the context of using the model y i = ax ib i . For this model we underline that: - if b < 0, the function log-log is down warding as against the factorial characteristic. In this case, lim y i ( xi ) = 0 . In the situation of the free term model r, lim y i ( xi ) = a 0 ;
x x
- if b > 0, the non-linear function is up warding and lim y i ( x i ) = ;

x
- irrespectively of the sign of the parameter b, this is equal with the elasticity of the resulting variable, calculated in connection with the factorial variable, namely:
b=
yi y i : ; xi xi
second order is
- when the differential of
results that: b (0,1) , the analytic function is up warding and concave ; b = 1, the regression model gets reduced to the simple linear model, without free term ; b > 1, the function is up warding and convex . The exponential model is used in the case when the points cloud resulting from the graphical representation of the series of values ( xi , y i )i =1,n is directed along the curve of an exponential function. The exponential model, with the parameters a and b, is defined through the relation
y i = a b xi i , a , b R +
2 yi = ab(b 1)xib 2 , is xi2
The estimation of the parameters of the exponential model is made through data transformations by logarithms, following the stages: - by logarithms applied to the equality terms we get the regression linear model:
ln y i = ln a + ln b xi + ln i
model
becomes a linear by the substitution of u i = ln y i , i = ln x i , a = ln a and b = b ; - we estimate the parameters of the regression linear model , u i = a + b xi + i using the smallest squares method; we get the
The
; and b estimators a - the estimators of the parameters of the regression non-linear model are established:
= e b = ea a and b
Finally, we calculate the values adjusted on the basis of the estimates regression non-linear model:
xi , i = 1, n i = a b y
The exponential model is used when the values of the resulting variable increase in an arithmetic progression while the values of the factorial variable increase in a geometrical progression. In order to interpret the meaning of the parameter b we take into account that
()
b=
1 y y x
It is to notice that the parameter b defines the increase rate of the resulting characteristic depending on the factorial variable X. In the case of the exponential model we distinguish the following situations: - b is the rate of increasing or decreasing of the characteristic Y as against X; - if b > 1, he evolution of the characteristic Y is up warding - if b (0,1) , the characteristic Y records a decrease as against the variable X; - the values of the characteristic Y are positive only and the parameter a satisfies the positivity property. Elements typical to the hyperbolic model The reciprocal regression model is used also to study the dependence between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. The regression curve built up in this case is called Phillips curve. The regression reciprocal model, with a negative slope of the curve, is usually used for analyzing the dependence of one product consumption on the incomes available for consumption The value b/a is the abscise of the point in which the graph crosses the Ox axis. The value corresponds to the minimum income allowing the acquisition of the requested product for consumption. The reciprocal model has the equality:
yi = a +
b + i xi
The interpretation of the reciprocal model (hyperbolic) parameters is done as follows: - We calculate the curve slope by the relation:
y i / xi = b / xi2
The function is down warding when the parameter b is positive and up warding if b is negative.
10
lim y (x ) = a
x
- Irrespectively of the sign of the parameter b, for the reciprocal model
The estimation of the two parameters is done by following the stages : - the parameters a, b are estimated through the smallest squares method.
1 = minimum, we get the linear b Out of the condition yi a xi i n n 1 = +b yi na i =1 x i i =1 n system of equations: n 1 n 1 y + b 2 = i a i =1 x i i =1 x i i =1 x i
We solve the linear system of equations having the unknown quantities a

. and b
i = a + - We calculate the adjusted values y
adjusting errors. Specific aspects of the parabolic model This model is used in the case that the characteristic rhythm of evolution follows a linear function, having the slope coefficient equal to the constant a. The points ( xi , y i )i =1,n are placed around the curve described by a parabola. For instance, the Laffer curve is represented in the form of a parabola and defines the relation between the government income and the taxation rate. We underline certain characteristics of the Laffer curve : - The state income = f (taxation rate); - The Laffer curve is decomposed in two regions: the region of a normal behavior, comprised between 0 and that level of the taxation rate (t%) where the state income is maximum; the region comprised between t% and 100% known as the inadmissible zone where, at an increase of the taxation rate, a corresponding increase of the state income is not achieved. - Between the income out of the inflation taxation and the inflation rate there is a dependence of parabolic type. In this case, it is stated out that there is a level of the inflation up to which it is estimated that state increases its income after which, an increase of the inflation rate leads to the state income diminishing.
b , and the series of the xi
11
The regression parabolic model which is defined by the
a, b, c R is
y i = c + bx i + ax + i
2 i
Being a linear function as against the three parameters, a, b and c, in order to estimate them the smallest squares method is utilized. It is required as a condition that the value of the expression
(y
i
x a b xi2 c i
is a minimum
one, resulting the following linear system of equations:

n n n 2 x +a n c b x yi + = i i i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n n 2 3 c x b x a x y i xi + + = i i i i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1 n n n n 2 x3 + a x i + b x i4 = y i x i2 c i i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1
i , i = 1, n } is Out of the system of equations, the series of the adjusted {y resulting. In order to evaluate the quality of the estimated model, the series of the i = y i y i . residuals ( i )i =1,n is established, where
The functions of polynomial type A regression non-linear model is often represented through the polynomial functions of a certain order. If the polynomial function is of the order k, then this one is submitted through
y t = 0 + 1 x t + 2 x t2 + ... k xtk + t
where the residual variables satisfy the hypothesis of the regression classical model and ( xt )t =1,n are the characteristic values for a number of periods In this case, the function is non-linear as against the factorial variables but it is linear as against the parameters of the regression model. For a correct estimation of the polynomial function parameters it must exist a multi-co-linearity between the variables X, X2, ...Xk. The selection of the grade of the polynomial function is done taking into account that: - the multi-co-linearity is frequent in the situation when the data series contains a reduced number of data; - it is recommended the use of polynomial functions holding a degree lower or equal to 4;
12
- we note with Rk2 the setting up ratio calculated for the polynomial function of order k. If the dimension of the data series is n, then 2 Rn 1 = 1 . Out of the three studies, it results that the prediction power of the polynomial function decreases as against the number of parameters which must be estimated. As an example, we can consider the definition of the cost for a production process (Y) depending on the production quantity achieved within a certain period (X):
y t = 0 + 1 x t + 2 x t2 + 3 xtk + t
Considering the last polynomial function, we define four types of costs: a) the average cost of the production over a period (ct):
ct =
yt 1 = 0 + (1 + 2 xt + 3 xt2 ) + t xt xt yt xt
b) the average fix cost of the production, which is represented by the first term of the above relation, through which we define the average cost;
cf t =
c) the average variable cost, represented by the second term is given by the relation:
cv t = c t cf t = 1 + 2 xt + 3 x t2
d) the marginal cost of the production:
cmt =
dyt = 1 + 2 2 xt + 3 3 xt2 dxt
These are significant indicators as to characterizing the performances of a production process. In estimating the parameters of the model we shall relate to the data transformation Z1 = X, Z2 = X2 . . . Zk = Xk, the regression linear model resulting:
yt = 0 + 1 z1t + 2 z 2t + ... + k z kt + t
In the case of the regression model of polynomial type, it will be necessary to establish the polynomial degree and to set out whether the variables Z1, Z2, ...Zk are correlated on an overall basis or two by two and to which extent the multi-colinearity is influencing the size of the dispersion estimators. The regression continuous non-linear models can be transformed through the Taylor series of order k in polynomial models of order k and, afterwards, through substitutions of variables, the mentioned linear model is resulting. We consider that the regression non-linear model is defined by the function f ( x1t , x 2t ) , differentiable of order k in a point (a, b) while the succession of
13
calculating the mixt partial differentials up to the order k is not significant, it is resulting: - the Taylor polynomial of order k attached to the function f(x1, x2) in the point (a, b) is defined by the relation: 1 1 1 Pk ( x1 , x 2 ) = f (a, b ) + d 1 f (a, b ) + d 2 f (a, b ) + ... + d k f (a, b ), 1! 2! k!
(x1 a ) + (x2 b ) f (a, b ), i = 1, n is the d 1 f (a, b ) = x2 x1 differential of order i of the function f ( x1 , x2 ) in the point (a,b); - if Rk ( x1 , x 2 ) represents the rest of order k of the Taylor series, then:
where
f ( x1 , x 2 ) = Pk ( x1 , x 2 ) + Rk ( x1 , x 2 )
- if a = b = 0, out of the above relation, we get the MacLaurin formual, which defines the equality: where Pp ( x1 , x 2 ) is a polynomial of degree p x1 i x2.
f (x1 , x 2 ) = f (0,0 ) + P1 ( x1 , x 2 ) + P2 (x1 , x 2 ) + ... + Pk (x1 , x 2 ) + R1 ( x1 , x 2 ),
The multiplicative model The multiplicative model, defined through the exogenous variable X1, X2, k t 2 where t is a . . . , Xk , is represented by the relation: y t = ax1t1 x 2 t ... x kt e residual variable having a normal repartition of mean zero and dispersion 2 The multiplicative model is linearizing through logarithms. The equivalent model being obtained: ln y t = ln + 1 ln x1t + 2 ln x 2t + ... k ln x kt + t = 0 + 1 z1t + 2 z 2t + ... + k z kt + t The main characteristic of this model is given by the relation existing between the coefficients of the exogenous variables and elasticity. Each parameter is equal to an elasticity coefficient, of the form:
ej =
y t x jt ln y t = = j x jt y t ln x jt
A non-linear multiple model is that represented by the Cobb-Douglas production function, represented by a function of two variables, including the time variable as well. The first form of presentation or the Cobb-Douglas function without technical progress. In this case, the variable time is not explicitly included in the function frame. The function is defined by the relation: t Yt = AK 1 L t e where: Yt - quantify the production or the production cost;
Kt fix capital; Lt labor force; A,,- real parameters; t - residual variable The second form of presentation or the Cobb-Douglas function with technical progress, the time variable being explicitly included in the function frame, defined by the relation:
mt + Yt = AK 1 L t e
The two parameters, and , provide significant information on the characteristics of the production process, being the parameters of the partial elasticity as against each factor of the production process. The parameter represents the partial elasticity of the production as against the fix capital:
eK =
ln Yt Yt K t = = K t Yt ln K t Yt Lt ln Yt = = Lt Yt ln Lt
The parameter expresses the partial elasticity of the production as against the human capital:
eL =
The scale elasticity equals to the sum of both elasticity:. e = eL + eK = + For he Cobb-Douglas production function, the scale elasticity is calculated only as against the two parameters, hence three situations: - the production process with down warding scale yield, when the scale elasticity is lower than 1: +<1 - the production process with constant scale yield, the scale elasticity being unitary: +=1 If the two inputs are increasing then the outputs are also increasing to the same extent. - the production process with up warding scale yield, the scale elasticity being over unitary: +>1 In order to test if the scale yield of the process is constant, there are two hypotheses to define: H0: + = 1 H0: + 1 In order to test the nul hypothesis, we use the Student test, respectively:
15
t=
1 1 + + = t n 3 2 2 + cov , + +
( )
For an established significance threshold, if t calculat < t tabelat , then the null hypothesis is accepted, according to which the process is one of down warding scale yield. The Cobb-Douglas function is written in an equivalent form:
K t t Yt = A L e Lt t
In order to define the intensive form of the Cobb-Douglas production function, we define the following two dimensions: the unitary capital on the unit of labor capital nbg, k t =
Kt
Lt
; the labor productivity, y t =
Yt
Lt
The intensive form of the Cobb-Douglass production function is defined by the relation:
y t = f (k t ) = Ak t e t
It is checked whether the intensive production function satisfy the following two pairs of properties: 1. f ' (k t ) 0, f " (k t ) 0 2. lim f ' (k t ) = and lim f ' (k t ) = 0
k t 0 k t
In order to estimate the model parameters, we proceed to linearizing through logarithms and to estimating the parameters of the translog function, applying to the methods: - we linearize the function through logarithms, getting a model triple logarithmic:
ln Yt = ln A + ln K t + ln Lt + t
The parameters of the regression model are estimated by applying the smallest squares method: - we use the Cobb-Douglas production function through a translog function:
= 2 (ln K t ) + 2 (ln Lt ) + 1 ln K t ln Lt
2 2
ln Yt = 0 + 1 ln K t + 1 ln Lt
The relation represents the Taylor series for the given function. The nn-linear model represented by the production function CES is defined by the relation below:
Yt = K t + (1 )L t
et
where: Yt - the variable quantifying the outputs from the system;

Kt - the fix capital; Lt - the human capital; ,,, - the model parameters t - the residual variable having the repartition N(0, 2 ) The parameters of the CES model have the following significances and values domains: > 0 represents for this production function the efficiency parameter of the production process; (0,1) is the distribution parameter of the production process; 0 is the scale parameter for the process; 1 is the substitution parameter of the two factors within the process. In case that = 0, we get the Cobb-Douglas production function. The generalized form of the CES production function, defined through the factorial variables X1, X2, ..., Xn is:
Yt = 1 X 1t + 2 X 2 t + ... + n X nt
e t where
i =1
=1
If the function incorporates technical progress, the time variable shows up in an explicit manner in the frame of the regression model. The CES function is represented by the relation:
Yt = A K t + (1 )L t
e mt + t
For the CES function the following properties are valid: - The elasticity of the substitution of the two factors is constant, this one being established by the value of the substitution parameter, :
e=
1 1+
- The scale yield is set up depending on the value of the parameter , resulting that: the production function is of down warding scale yield (0,1) ; for = 1, the production function has a constant scale yield: if > 1, we hold a production function of up warding scale yield. For estimating the parameters of the CES function, the algorithms are applied: - The estimation of the parameters using the credibility function implies: logarithms on the function, out of which the production function results:
ln Yt = ln +
ln[K t + (1 )L t ]+ t
We write the credibility function for the production function and establish the four estimates out of the conditions of maximum of the credibility function. - The estimation of the parameters by using the translog representation means: the translog function is written, which is in fact, a polynomial of
ln Yt = 0 + 1 ln K t + 1 ln Lt + 11 (ln K t ln Lt ) + t
2
second order of this function in the point (1,1). It is then obtained a linear model as against the parameters of the model:
we estimate the parameters of the regression model by applying the MCMMP; we establish the estimators of the regression model taking into account the four relations defined for the CES parameters and translog. References Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Bardsen, G., Nymagen, R., Jansen, E. (2005) The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling, Oxford University Press Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press
18
Theoretical and Methodological Considerations on the Public Offers

Claudia Catalina SAVA, PhD Student Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu Abstract This paper describes the most important characteristics of the public offers, both from the theoretical and methodological view.The European Union emphasizes clarity and transparency. The author focuses on specific provisions of European Directive and Romanian law and regulations related to voluntary and mandatory takeover bids, on characteristics such as price, offeror and offeeree right, offer timetable. Key words: public offer, takeover bid, fair price, sqeeze out JEL Classification: G11, G18
The European Directive regarding takeover bids ensures, at the level of the entire European Union, clarity and transparency as regards the specific aspects of these types of operations. The application of this Directive lead, at least at theoretical level, to the possibility to take over a company listed on the regulated market by any person interested in. The Directive refers to the takeover bids but the Romanian legislation which transposes it treats in the chapter dedicated to this type of operations the bid and selling offers, as well. The bid public offer is defined as the public offer made from a person to the all holders of the securities of one company. Once launched, the bid offer will be made at a price at least equal to the highest price between the highest price paid by the offeror or the persons who are acting in concert with him for a period of 12 months prior to the date when the offeror communicated the offer document to the national authority (Romanian National Securities Commission) and the weighted average price afferent to the least 12 months before the date when the offeror communicated the offer document to the supervisory authority. In the situation when none of the above mentioned criteria is applicable, the bid price will be at least equal to the net asset per share, in accordance with the latest financial statement of the issuer. Surprisingly, the Romanian primary legislation does not mention a price level for the bid offer, but the secondary legislation does. We could even say that the regulations exceed the law in this matter. As long as at the European level there is no an unitary frame, every EU country has the liberty to treat it differently. Whereas the bid public offer can aim packs of shares conducting to less than 33% of the total voting rights (for more than 33% it is required to launch the voluntary
takeover bid), the offer made by the issuer himself or an other person, shareholder or not, should have any price determining criteria. The price should be that the offeror considers to be offered and which, along with the other elements related to the percent of the total voting rights to be purchased, the duration and the allocation algorithm, will define the offer. The voluntary bid offer is the offer made to all holders of the securities of a company for all their holdings, launched by a person who doesnt have this obligation but whose objective is the acquisition of more than 33% of the total voting rights. Unlike the bid offer, the voluntary takeover is addressed to all shareholders and for all their holdings, which denotes the intention of taking the control of the company. The offeror and, if case, the persons acting in concert with him, can or cannot be one of the shareholders, as well as in the bid offer we have spoked about previously. For the first time in the Romanian legislation, in the public offers subject appears, by parity of resoning with the tekeover bid Directives provisions, the fact that the board of the offeree company remits to the competent authority, to the offeror and to the market its opinion of the pertinence, suitability of the bid. Moreover, starting with the date of receiving the announcement, the Board of Directors of the company subject of the takeover bid cannot conclude any other contract/document and cannot take any action modifying the company assets or the takeover objectives, except the current administrative documents. There is a quite different interpretation compared with the European provisions requiring the Board of Directors to obtain the approval of the general shareholders meeting for any action related to the issuer, especially those regarding the issue of shares that may prevent the undertaking of the voluntary takeover bid on the long term. The European legislation stipulates that the issuers board should express about the followings: the voluntary tekeover bid that affects the respective issuer, the strategic plan of the bidder (offeror) and the consequences for the company and for the staff. I think that the scope of these provisions, applicable in the case of mandatory takeover bid, as well, is to ensure a favourable environment for takeover bid and also to make available to the public the terms and the conditions. In the sense that, from the boards set out point of view, it would be obviously whether the takeover character is hostile or not. It is the directives objective to ensure the protection of small investors. Considering the lack of clarifications at the European level, the Romanian legislation does not provide details about the case when the takeover has an obviously hostile character. Maybe, this was the reason why the directive gives the possibility for the management of the offeree company to choose alternative offers or doesnt forbid it. The price, in case of the voluntary takeover bids, is, at least, equal to the highest price between the highest price paid by the bidder or the persons with whom he acts jointly, for the 12 months period before the date of submitting to CNVM the takeover documentation, the weighted average trading price on the last 12 months before the date of submitting to CNVM the takeover documentation, the price resulted from dividing the net shares value to the number of shares, as
presented in the last financial statement of the issuer. Regarding the price in case of voluntary takeover bid, we have to accept the fact that the criteria are established in order to maximize the price received by the seller and this makes sense for ensuring the price protection in case of hostile takeover bid or for protecting in accepting an unfavourable price in case of insufficient disclosure. Only. Because there is no real stake for establishing the price in case of voluntary takeover bid, other than those described above, the period taken into account (12 months starting with the date of submitting the documentation) is considered as acceptable. The bidder (offeror) or the persons with whom he is acting in concert cannot launch, for one year after the closing the previous takeover bid, any other takeover bid related to the same issuer. The takeover bid is mandatory when a person who, as a result of his purchase or those of the persons acting in concert with, holds more than 33% of the voting rights within a company. By exception, the persons who hold unintentionally, these holdings, have the right to choose either to launch a public offer under the legal provisions, or to sell a number of shares corresponding to the loss of the position acquired without intention. The difference between the situations presented above is that in case of intended holding of more than 33% of the voting rights, the person shall launch the offer within no more than 2 months after the moment of achieving the respective position, in this period when the position exceed the holding of 33%, the voting rights are suspended while, in the second situation, it operates the permission for selling to a level under 33% which may be done within maximum 3 months. We have to notice that, during these 3 months, the voting rights exceeding the threshold of 33% (for the person who unintentionally holds voting rights more than 33%) are not suspended. The question is what might happen and how this may influence the companys life if a shareholding meeting took place within this period of time. Another question is that, if, comparing with the intentionally holding, the investor is favoured in this situation. It seems that the legal provisions do not ensure an equal treatment for the investor who is within the 2 months term for launching the offer and that who unintentionally holds more than 33%in terms of exerting the voting rights. Because the voting rights are not suspended, the shareholder who unintentionally holds 33%, may exercise all the voting rightsand, consequently, may crucially influence the issuers activity, doubly so as fromobjective reasons and which, beware,cannot be invoked, but also from subjective ones he did not launch the offer. Moreover, the issuer holding more than 33% of the voting rightscannot proceed to the acquisition of shares of the same issuer, using other operations. In this context, it is debatable whether the notion of operation or acquisition includes also the participation to the increasing of the issuers capital and the consequently increasing the number of shares. From a point of view, only the fact that the shareholder is (or should be) under the period of getting ready for launching the offer, he should not be excluded from the shares acquisition within a capital increase. This proves that the
shareholder is interested in consolidating his position and reliability. Looking from another point of view, the obstruction of involvement of the controlling shareholder in the increase of capital may lead to significant alterations in the existing holdings and may impede the offer either by reducing the holding under the threshold stipulated by law. I have to be honest and say that the Capital Market Laws provisions regarding the selling alternative in the case of unintended 33% or more holdings have no correspondent in the Directive and I have not found a base for a national option. What I am saying is that the Romanian law intended to make clearer the situations that may occur but I am sceptical about the accuracy of the theoretical concept and of its fairness. As the law provides, in case of an unintentional acquisition of a holding exceeding the threshold of 33%, there is the possibility to opt for initiating an offer or for selling in order to fall below the mentioned threshold. In case of an intentional acquisition, as the Directive sets out, there is no alternative but to initiate the offer. This, on my own interpretation, means that the shareholder has to start the procedures for initiating the offer. It is true that there are not specifiedany interdictions to sell or penalties in case of selling. However, I appreciate that the rule what it is not forbidden, it is allowed cannot be applied.Thus, at national level, there have not been made clear, coherent and coercive rules for the situation of abstraction from the offer in case of intentional acquisition by total or partial selling, until the last change of the Capital Market Law. On the whole, the new provisions start from two distinct premises: one when the deadline for launching the offer is complied and another one when it is not. In the first one, no12 months before highest price applicable, the offer price shall be established by the highest value among the weighted average price for the last 12 months, prior to the date of submitting the documents, the value of the net asset of the company divided to the outstanding shares in accordance with the last audited financial statement and the value of the shares resulted from an expertise carried out following the international assessment standards. In the second one, the price of the offer is the highest value among the price paid by the offeror during the 12 months prior to date of handing in the offer and the date when he acquired the holding of more than 33%, as well as the weighted average transaction price for both the 12 months prior to handing in the documentations and to the moment when the legal threshold has been exceeded. I agree that the last amendments to the law provide requirements relating to the calculation of the offering price, in case of a delay situation, that can discourage the phenomenon, but the situation of public offerings avoidance is still in place. The competent authority sanctions the attempts of avoidance but I strongly believe that more coherent, clear and coercive rules are more efficient. The provisions of the Directive allowthe competent authorities of the European Member States, in some circumstances and subject to the criteria disclosed to the public, to intervene and to adjust the price in takeover bids. The adjustment can be made up or down, when, for example, the highest price paid by
the bidderis the result of market manipulation practices, the result of the agreement between the seller and the buyer or the general conditions of the markets have been influenced by exceptional events. The transposition of the principle mentioned above into the national legislation was made stating that an independent evaluator designated by the bidder can determine the fairprice, when the stipulated criteria are not applicable or the competent authority considers that the purchasing shares activities were likely to influence the accuracy of the price. On one hand the adjustment made into the capital market legislation reduces the capacity of the national competent authority to amend itself, in special cases and totally motivated, the offering price, and, on the other hand,it leaves this taskfor an independent expert. Following a bid made to all the holders of the company and for all of their securities, if the bidder holds securities representing more than 95% of the voting rights or more than 90 % of the voting rights comprised in the bid, he is entitled to require to all the holders of the remaining securities to sell those securities at a fair price (squeeze-out) to him. These percentages represent the national option in implementing the directive, which requires a percentage no less than 90%, but not more than 95%. It is a national option that the price offered into a mandatory takeover bid and into a voluntary takeover bid, is considered to be fair when the bidder purchased shares representing more than 90% of the voting rights comprised in the bid. The law does not distinguish between the voluntary and mandatory takeover bid, as the Directive does. The European legislation provides that, in case of a voluntary takeover bid, the fair price is the price paid by the bidder for purchasing more than 90 % of the voting rights comprised in the bid, which is logical. The request addressed by the offeror to the shareholders who did not subscribe to the offer may be exercised no later than 3 months from the closing date of the offer. In this case, the offered price is considered as fair price. On the contrary, the price shall be determined by an independent expert, according to the international assessment standards. These provisions are different from those of the Directive which stipulates that if the offeror wants to exercise the right to request the withdrawal of the other shareholders, the offeror shall do this no later than 3 months from the offer closing date. There are no provisions referring to the possibility of extending this deadline or to adopt another modality of calculating the fair price in this situation. In my opinion, this deadline cannot be extended and therefore the right conferred by the Directive cannot be exercised beyond this deadline. This opinion is confirmed by another provision according to which Member States shall ensure that following an offer where shares with voting rights attached have been bought in the above mentioned percentage, the shareholders who did not subscribe and continue to own shares may request the offeror to buy these shares at a fair price (sell-out). The modality of calculating the fair price is the same and the deadline of
the request is still the same, no later than 3 months from the offer closing date. This means that even in the situation where the offeror does not launch the squeeze-out procedure, the shareholders of equities owned following the offer may ask the offeror to buy their shares. The interpretation of the community legislation by the national legislation means that both in squeeze-out and sell-out procedure, the person asked to sell, respectively to buy is obliged to do this. There are points of view stating that this obligation is not in accordance with the Constitution and this can be discussed. References Directive 2004/25/EC of the European Parliament on takeover bids Law no. 297/2004 on the capital market (with all late amendments)
24
Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Inflation Analysis

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Prof. Vergil VOINEAGU PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest
Abstract: Definition of inflation was the victim of a "war" theory of money growth and general price increase. What was once described as a monetary issue is now presented as a price effect. This change of position sense supporters anti-inflation complicated by the simple fact that inflation based on prices may have, as I mentioned with several causes, making it difficult to identify solutions to eliminate this phenomenon. When inflation was a question of money with one location, namely the central bank and a single solution - reducing the rate of monetary expansion. Key words: inflation, price increase, money supply JEL Classification: E31, P44
In the 19th century the inflation was directly connected with the currency devaluation and not with the prices increase. According to a Federal Reserve release from the year 1919, The inflation is a process of additional multiplication of currency ungrounded by a corresponding increase of the goods production. After approximately 60 years, the quoting taken over from the Federal Reserve press release ceased of being valid so that in 1978, the term of inflation has as causes: the evolution of the exchange rate, the considerable increase of the labor force cost, the weather condition but not the excessive increase of money. Consequently, the inflation definition has been the victim of a theoretical war between the increase of the monetary mass and the increase of the general level of prices. What was once described as a monetary cause is presented nowadays as an effect of the prices. This change of sense complicated the position of the anti-inflation supporters, simply because the inflation based on the level of
prices can have, as we have already pointed out, more causes which make the identification of the solutions meant to eliminate of this phenomenon more difficult. When the inflation was the cause of money with a single location, namely the central bank, there was a single solution the reduction of the increase rate of the monetary mass. The classical economists, contemporary of Adam Smith, where very careful with the exact definition of the economic terms since they were building up a language being at the ground of the construction of an emergent science. Among their first contributions, there was also the distinction between the real and nominal prices, so that the real price (the value) of a product was defined as the effort required by its production, while in nominal terms (money) it was characterized only by the cost in money (fixed in terms of gold or other precious metals). In other words, the value of the goods is given by the laws of the nature the effort of the labor force- and the nominal price differs depending on the availability of the precious metals and sovereign law, which define the money of a nation. Although the classical economists believed that the fluctuation of the nominal price of the goods can have disturbing temporary influences on the economy (such as generating the versatile redistribution of resources between the parties of a contract with a nominal fix price), at the end of the day these modifications served only for changing the scale through which the real price was measured. The idea that the changes occurring in the quantity of money is affecting the nominal price of the goods only, has been supported by many of the early classical economists, among which the most known was David Hume. The theory has been developed more rigorously at the beginning of the 20th century, by the economist Irving Fisher, becoming known as the quantitative theory of money. The first generation of economists, the successors of Adam Smith in the 19th century, have been very interested in paper money and their modality to relate to the causes of the modifications of one goods costs was based on three distinct sources: - The value modification which took into account the real source of one goods costs; - The modification of the money price (nominal), basically caused by the fluctuation of the metal content of the money; - The depreciation of the currency relatively to the metal which constituted the national currency. The term of inflation has been initially described by taking into consideration the source concerning the currency depreciation but, by the end of the 19th century, the distinction between the currencies and money became more and more unclear. So that by the beginning of the 20th century, the economists had the tendency to relate to the term of inflation of the currency by using any environment of money circulation attributed to a commercial demand. But on this change of relating to the term of inflation a question mark raised also. While the
quantity of currency related to the mass of precious metal was easy to establish, the things became more complicated when somebody tried to establish the quantity in circulation which exceed the commercial demand. During the first decades of the 20th century, the economists seem to reach a definition through which the excess existing within the circulation environment of the money could be explained through the effect on the prices level only. Thus, the notions of the currency and prices inflations became connected in an incomprehensible mode. This change of rhetoric may have an insignificant impact on the theoreticians of the quantitative economics as it seems unlikely that they were in the position to remark a significant distinction between the two ideas. From their point of view, the increase of the currency quantity related to the commercial demand can have only one effect the prices increase, while an increase of the prices level can have only one origin an increase of the money quantity corresponding to their demand. Nevertheless, a number of economists tried to maintain the distinction between an increase of the prices level based on the additional printing of currency corresponding to the commercial exchanges and an increase, as result of the commercial exchanges diminishing for a certain money offer. The connection of the inflation with the prices level proved to be another significant point of crossroads for the humanity. The apparition of the General Theory of Keynes, in 1936, has been considered as the moment of the assault of the quantitative theory on the monetarist theory, which dominated the macro economy for 40 years. Making recourse to the conviction that the resources regularly and persistently non-engaged an idea sustained at the moment of the Great Depression at the worldwide level-, the Keynesian theory contested the necessity of the connection between the quantity of money and the general level of the prices. Moreover, it sustained that the overall evolution of the prices may be due to other causes than money. Apart the separation of the level of prices from the monetary mass, the Keynesian revolution seems to separate the term of inflation from the money situation and to re-define it as a description of the prices. In this way, the inflation became synonymous with any increase of price and that is why nowadays the distinction between the prices increases and the inflation is seldom done. Referring to the inflation as a consequence of too much money, the economists have been forced to fight the optional issue: how much is much?. The quantitative theory provided a clear answer to this question: too much money represents an increase of the monetary mass accompanied by an increase of the general level of the prices. When the Keynesian economic theory disputed the direct connection between money and the prices level, the inflation lost the association with money and became in the first place, associated with the prices situation.
27
Without being connected with the money offer, any increase of prices seems to be claimed by the term of inflation. In this respect, whenever this term is used for describing the level of prices, the anti-inflationist steps might be characterized as being against any price increase, including the wage increase as well. According to the monetarists, this is unacceptable while an anti-inflationist strategy is concerned with a certain type of price increase that increase resulting through an excessive creation of currency. Fromm this point of view, targeting a sustainable level of inflation became a more rational goal of the central banks. The period of the great inflation of the years 1970-1980 has been considered, along with the Great Depression of the years 1929-1932, the most grave failure of the monetary policies of he 19th century. During the respective period, the inflation exceeded the level of 10% in all the countries members of OECD, a notable exception being Germany. Although the economic history has permanently faced periods of inflation and even of hyperinflation, the Great Inflation is considered by the economists as being an unique episode. In comparison with the period of the Great Inflation, the other periods have been associated with the two world wars or with other internal events which led to major changes within the economy and policy of a country and which, finally, as response to the government needs, resulted in the massive financing of the budgetary deficits by means of monetary emission (seignorage). The negative consequences of the inflationist phenomenon of the years 1970-1980 contributed to a major extent to the change of the perception on the inflation from the point of view of both the monetary policies makers and the individual level of the day-to-day living. The opinion polls referring to the economic conditions evidence the citizens will as to live within a stable environment from the point of view of the prices evolution. We can discuss about the prices stability when, as average, the prices neither increase (inflation) nor decease (deflation) but keep on remaining stable over the time. The economic theory and literature is abundant in information concerning the significance and benefits of the prices stability, as well as to the causes at the basis of the prices increase or decrease. All the arguments submitted by the specialized literature suggest that a central bank which maintains the prices stability has a major contribution to the achievement of the economic goals concerning the economic growth and stability, the standard of life and the degree of the labor force occupation. That is why, during the decades following the Great Inflation, a remarkable convergence has been recorded as to the need to declare the prices stability as the main target of the monetary policy. The prices stability became the central point as it is considered an achievable goal on medium term and, meantime, a pre-condition for the good functioning of a market economy. The European Union Treaty attributed to the European Central Bank (ECB) the mandate to maintain the stability at the European level, a target defined in quantitative terms as being an annual average increase of the harmonized index
of the consumption prices IAPC, below 2%. The Council of the ECB governors undertook as target to maintain the inflation but close to 2%. This target takes into account an adequate positive margin in order to avoid the deflation risk but sufficient to solve the eventual implications generated by the differential existing between the member states of the euro zone so that no state can survive within the euro zone when showing too low inflation rates or even deflation. In addition, this target take into considerations also the possibility of a slight over-estimation of the real inflation through IAPC. Despite this recognition shown to the need of stability of the prices, the notion is periodically submitted to debates, which finally led to a lack of consensus on what should be understood by the price stability. This lack of consensus occurred between the academic environment and the central banks. All these concerns regarding the inflation influenced also the methodology of calculating the price indices. The issue of the inflation measurement errors has been addressed for the first time in the year 1961, in the USA, by the Commission of the Chicago University, led by George Stigler. The main recommendation of this Commission referred to the necessity to adopt a rigorous probabilistic method to set up the sample of stores and products as well as a higher strictness as to setting up the products specifications. In December 1996, in the USA as well, the Report of the Boskin Commission has been issued and made public, with a recognized impact at international level, both by the academic world, the statistical practice and among the central banks. The Boskin Commission emphasized a series of possible errors of measurement for the index of the consumption prices, such as: the substitution of products in the frame of the indices, the stores change, difficulties in the adequate measurement of the quality modifications and the necessity to bring in new products. The analysis achieved by the Boskin Commission on the USA data, indicated the fact that the effect of these statistical lack of accuracy may be a major one, leading to an over-estimation of the measured inflation at the level of the year, with values estimated between 0.8-1.6 percentage points. Besides these problems of measurement there is a general question mark concerning the covering sphere of the price indices utilized for evaluating the prices stability. It may be possible that there are situations in which a general price index is used such as the GDP deflator including the prices of all the final goods and services produced within an economy and which can be considerably more relevant for the decisions regarding investment and saving. The price index can be characterized as a factor through which the relative modification of this aggregated value is measured as a result of the prices modifications. As a result, all the significant formulas for the measurement of the price indices can be expressed as a weighted average of the relative prices which weights are represented by the contribution of each product (item) in the total value. We remind here the most known formulas for the measurement of the price indices, expressed as weighted average of the relative prices: Laspeyres index, Paasche index and Walsh indices, respectively Torngvist. Expressed as a
geometrical average of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices, the Fisher index can be considered also as a function of the weights of the expenses directly derived from the total value. The relations existing between the most important four price indices are defined through their association with the centralized aggregates defined by the System of the National Accounts (SNC). The system of the national accounts is periodically submitted to revisions, the last version being the one issued in 2008. So that, the chapter I explains the concepts utilized for defining the institutional sectors and the transaction types mentioned by SNC, in order to underline more exactly the association between the most significant types of indices and aggregated values measured through these concepts. The most adequate frame for presenting the price indices existing in the statistical system is the table resources utilizations. The tables of the resources and utilizations are meant to serve the statistical and analytical purposes. The main statistical requirements which can be covered are the following: - Identification of the gaps and incoherencies which affect the basic data; Weighing and calculating the indices which measure the price and volume; - Getting the estimates in a residual manner (in order to obtain a variable, we start with estimating all the other variables, the un-known one resulting as a difference), mainly for the production and consumption of the specific products; - Verifying and improving the coherence, liability and exhaustively of the data contained by the tables of resources and utilizations and the derived figures (as, for instance, those of the production accounts). Meantime, the first chapter is analyzing some basic concepts regarding the prices statistics the different formulas used to the indices calculation, the significance of the consumption basket, the difference between the price index and the price modification etc. The price indices have a long history and a large variety of utilization, starting from the adjustment of the level of wage, pensions and payments included within a long term contract, the deflation of the aggregates of the national accounts, up to the macroeconomic policies making. The simplest and earliest example of index has been the one proposed by William Fleetwood in 1707, who intended to measure the average modifications of the prices paid by the students of the Oxford University, over a period of two and a half centuries. Another example from the 18th century has been the index calculated by the legislative body of Massachusetts in 1780, which considered indexing the pay to the soldiers fighting the revolutionarys war against England. The 19th century is considered the most interesting moment in the history of the indices theory. In 1823, Joseph Lowe published a study concerning the agriculture, trade and financial services. In the frame of this study, the author
developed the concept of price index as a modification of the monetary value of a set, or classification of goods and services. This method is still utilized nowadays. Diewert (1993) argues that Lowe may be considered the father of the price indices. Later on in the 19th century, other significant contributions have been achieved, brought to the indices theory, including those of Laspeyres (1871) and Paasche (1874), whose names are associated with the most spread types of price indices. Marshall (1887) supported the utilization of the chained indices, where the indices are measuring the evolution of prices from one year to another, lined together in order to estimate the evolution of the indices over long periods of time. In 1922, Irving Fisher published his work, considered a monumental one by those preoccupied by the indices theory: The Making of Index Numbers. This work underlined Fishers interest on inflation and his support for the money quantitative theory. Fisher investigated the properties of hundreds of types of possible formulas for measuring the price indices, his preferred being the geometrical mean of the Laspeyres and Paasche indices , known presently as Fisher index. In 1924, Kons published a work which resented the foundation of the economic theory of the life cost index (COLI), which is elaborated in order to measure the modifications of cost in order to maintain the same living standard (utility or welfare). In fact, the consumer does not buy the same set of products and services during different periods, adjusting his expenses depending on the prices changes and other factors occurring in the economy. Counter-party to the setting up of COLI is the index of the fix cost of goods. Another important approach from within the numbers theory has been the one issued by Divisia, in 1926, which is based on the assumption that the prices and the quantities are changing in time, in a continuous and instantaneous mode. As an economic, monetary and social phenomenon, the inflation took position in the center of the attention of the researchers belonging to different historical periods and schools, which get integrated within the Romanian monetary-financial thinking. The causes, intensity, forms of acting and, mainly, the effects generated by the inflation cannot be identified, in their totality, with the same circumstances and manifestations which this phenomenon met within other zones and countries of the world. References Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Aukrust, O. (1977) Inflation in the Open Economy. An Norwegian Model, in Klein, L. B. and W. S. Slant (eds.), World Wide Inflation. Theory and Recent Experience. Brookings, Washington D.C., p.130 Biji, M., Biji, E.M., Lilea, E., Anghelache, C. Tratat de statistic, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2002 Begu, L., Stelian , S. (1999) Statistic internaional, Editura All Beck, 1999
31
Some Operational Aspects Relating to Quality Management and Total Quality Management
Associate Professor Sorin GRESOI PhD Associate Professor Aurelian DIACONU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract The work pass in review a few basic concepts found in quality management focusing on operational aspects of quality assurance in production activity and continue with issues regarding total quality strategy, the vector of competitiveness on the market. Key words: quality, competitiveness, check, improvement, standard. JEL Classification: L15, M11
A dynamic quality expressed through concepts such as quality potential, quality designed, quality built, quality assured and total quality.1 A brief analysis of the world economic picture of the 21st century allows highlighting some defining features of indisputable: diversification and renewal of supplies of goods, under the impact of the rapid development of science and technology, globalisation of markets, facilitated by progress in the field of telecommunications, increasing requirements of our customers and society2. In these circumstances, the quality of products and services was imposed as a determinant of the competitiveness and performance of enterprises. Actual content of the performance is dependent on strategic objectives, there is no absolute performance, independent of its objectives is dependent performance evaluation setting objectives, which is performing in a given situation, characterized by certain objectives may not be in another situation characterized by other objectives3. Quality is a concept with a very wide use, which makes it extremely difficult to define from the scientific point of view. Disciplines such as philosophy, economics and technical ones give a different meaning of the term. In philosophy, the quality is defined as a category that expresses the synthesis of things and properties of objects and processes. By virtue of a system of relationships, an object is what it is and can be distinguished from other objects. Changing the quality means the radical transformation of the object.
Gresoi Sorin Gabriel Management and quality management, Pro Universitaria Publishing House, 2011, p.13 Verboncu Ion, Protopopescu Cristina (2010), The Implications of Management Reengineering on the Performances of Organizations, Revista Romn de Statistic trim IV/2010, supliment pp. 8-10, 3 Diaconu Amelia, Diaconu Aurelian Performana economico-financiar i indicatori ai analizei i evalurii ei, Simpozionul tiinific Internaional organizat de Societatea Romn de Statistic la 17.03.2009, Nr. 3 martie, pp. 97-102.
2 1
32
In logic, quality means a criterion of logical order, after which predictive judgments are divided into affirmative and negative. Affirmative judgments are those qualities that states belonging to the object, iar judecile negative enun lipsa apartenenei unei nsuiri la un obiect. Assertion and negation are regarded as representing the logical mechanism by which, in the judgment, it expresses the truth or falsehood. With regard to the concept of quality of products and services, in the literature many definitions are formulated. On the other hand, in economic practice are given different meanings of this concept. Thus, capacity is defined as representing "the customer's expectations", "the availability of the product", "a systematic approach to excellence", "compliance with the specifications," "suitable for use", etc. David. Garwin, a professor at the Harvard Business School has highlighted five main guidelines in defining product quality: transcendence, to produce, process, and user costs. Quality assurance in production a) production processes should be checked if they are capable of producing the product specifications. Must be identified operations associated with the characteristics of the product that may have a significant effect on the quality of the product. An adequate control must be established in order to ensure that these features within product specifications or that suitable changes or modifications are made. Verifying production processes should include materials, equipment, systems and software, procedures and personnel. In particular, account must be taken of production processes in which control is particularly important for product quality. Such special attention may be required for the characteristics of the product are not easily measurable for the special skills required in their implementation, for a product or process whose results cannot be fully verified through a subsequent inspection and testing. Control of processes assumes control of materials and the traceability and inspection and maintenance of equipment. b) product verification refers to: testing of materials and components The method used to ensure the quality of the materials, components and assemblies supplied, which are the units of production, will depend on the situation and control of the information available from the vendor, as well as the impact on costs. inspection during manufacture To verify compliance, to be taken into account in the inspection or test points suitable process. Location and frequency will depend on the importance of nature and the ease of checking in that stage of production. In general, verification must be carried out as close as possible to the point of realization of property or feature.
Checks may include: adjustment and inspection of the first units of the product; the inspection or testing of the machine by the operator; automatic inspection or testing; inspection points, at intervals throughout the process; the inspection light, through inspection that monitors specific operations. verification of the finished product You can use several techniques, methods of checking the quality of the finished product: checking through 100% control of finished products In the case of the production of unique and small series, whereas in the case of medium-sized or large series is uneconomic, unreliable and involved in certain situations. checking by sampling of finished products Consists in extracting a "sample" of the finished products, in order to inspect his whole. Conclusion ACCEPTED/REJECTED thus obtained can be extended under certain conditions, the entire lot, without needing to inspect it, "piece by piece". Because the sample is representative of the sampling to be done randomly, and the consignment to be as uniform as possible. Statistical control of batches of finished products involves the definition of a "sample plan" that includes the following elements: type of control: single, double, multiple; security level control: normal, low, severely; acceptable quality level (AQ): standard values ranging from 0.01 .... 10; the level of checking/control (NC): common (NCI, NCII, NCIII) and special (S1, S2, S3, S4) Knowing the batch size (N), using the standard SR ISO 2859-10: 2009 (Sampling procedures for inspection by attributes. Part 10: Introduction to the ISO 2859 series of standards for sampling for inspection by attributes) or the ruler, you get: - the size of the sample of sampled (W) - the maximum number of defects for which the consignment (A) - the minimum number of defects for which the batch is rejected (R) - continuous auditing/verification through regular quality samples. The audit should not be confused with supervisory activities or checked, for example for the purposes of acceptance of a product. Audit means "listening" and not inspection. Product audit shall be carried out to assess the performance of the product specifications (or with some requirements to beneficiaries etc.. ) c) control and measurement equipment;
34
In order to achieve an adequate level of confidence in the decisions made or actions taken it is necessary that all assets/measuring systems used during the life cycle of the product concerned under control. In measurement systems category included not only measuring and control apparatus and measuring and control devices, sizes, measuring translators, specialized products, equipment for testing. All measuring systems whose performance may influence specific characteristics of a product, process or service should be verified before use in relation to the accuracy and reliability of measurement. d) control of non-compliant product; Product units or non-conforming consignments alleged to be identified and their recorded appearances. Non-conforming product units must be isolated, whenever possible, of the units produced and appropriately identified in order to prevent their further use until adequate provision is made. All parts the components of a product and auToate parts (pieces) items were identified as being true must be examined by competent persons specially designated to decide what treatment is to be applied: repair, triggering reprocessing, or bad marketable state. e) corrective actions Implementation of corrective action begins with identifying a problem and involves taking steps to eliminate or minimise the possibility of the problem. Corrective action includes also repair, reprocessing or bad marketable State materials or unsatisfactory product units. In order to find out the risks linked to its organizational structure, business activity may be divided in the following phases: research and development, purchasing, production and sale4. f) quality assurance in subsequent production activities Subsequent production activities refer to: handling, storage, packaging, assembly, and delivery. For all these activities should be drawn up and kept up-to-date documented procedures. Of special importance is the provision of feedback and information regarding the behaviour in the use of the product. The quality of production and the product is affected and staff. As a result, you have identified the needs of personnel training and necessary to establish a method for ensuring that training. It should also be envisaged providing training to all levels of staff within the organization, society. Particular attention should be paid to the selection and training of newly hired personnel and personnel transferred to new assignments. Is not sufficient initial training newly hired traders, this initial training must be accompanied by a periodically performed under the direction of a professional. This means overcoming the mental barrier, both the employer and the
4
Nastase Dan, Marketing risk assessment activities, Editura Semne, Bucuresti 2013, p.74
35
staff: on the one hand, the belief that a permanent investment in the training vendors, not enough experience for them, and on the other side a certain modesty embodied in accepting that you have to learn, regardless of age and experience5. Quality is an essential products and services. According to SR EN ISO 9000: 2006(Quality management systems. Fundamentals and vocabulary) quality is the extent to which a set of inherent characteristics fulfills requirements. Dictionaries and literature offers numerous other definitions of quality, such as: - Quality is the customer's satisfaction - Quality is fitness to be properly used - Quality is what the customer is willing to pay depending on what you get and recover. Total quality is a new evolutionary model of management that includes practices, tools and methods for gearing of the entire staff, with the objective of satisfying the customer in a a medium located in a continuous. Total quality can be defined as a set of principles and methods brought together into a global strategy, put in place in a company in order to improve the quality of its products and services; the quality of its operation and the quality of its objectives. Purposes of applying the total quality strategy is the development of the enterprise, to ensure its profitability, satisfaction and loyalty of customers to attract. Total quality include: - all functions of the enterprise (company); - all activities of functions - all employees, regardless of the hierarchical ladder; - all vendor-client relationships in the enterprise; - all the improvements in the field of quality; - the whole life cycle of the product; - all current and potential markets. Total quality characteristics are: - the generalization of the notion of quality; - the generalization relationship supplier-customer; - considering all needs (anticipating possible demands, the drive for "zero defects" policy, the development of trust on the basis of "quality"); - application of tracking tools, evaluation and settlement of. If you compare a few features of the classic (traditional) concept of quality controlled and modern quality of all we notice a number of key differences. Therefore the objective of total quality means ensuring the competitiveness of the enterprise it through customer satisfaction, taking as a basis the improvement continues with the participation of the entire staff.
Teau Anca, Sales Techniques, Editura Pro Universitaria, Bucuresti, 2009, pag 39
36
References Diaconu Amelia, Diaconu Aurelian Economic and financial performance and its analysis and evaluation indicators, Simpozionul tiinific Internaional organizat de Societatea Romn de Statistic la 17.03.2009, Nr. 3 martie, Diaconu Aurelian, Quality management: the influence of measurement errors, Ed.Artifex, Bucuresti, 2008 Gresoi Sorin Gabriel Management and quality management, Pro Universitaria Publishing House, 2011, Nastase Dan, Marketing risk assessment activities, Editura Semne, Bucuresti 2013, Teau Anca, Sales Techniques, Editura Pro Universitaria, Bucuresti, 2009, Verboncu Ion, Protopopescu Cristina (2010), The Implications of Management Reengineering on the Performances of Organizations, Revista Romn de Statistic trim IV/2010, supliment.
37
Non-parametrical Estimation of the Regression used in Economic Analyses

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Liviu BEGU PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Georgeta BARDAU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract Non-parametric methods are useful, but raises some problems. In practice, they require a large number of observations and are used for a relatively small number of explanatory variables. Moreover, the result is sensitive to the choice of the smoothing parameter and to a lesser extent in the nucleus. They pose a problem for the presentation of results that can not be contained in a compact formula but can only be described by graphs. A non-parametric analysis does not allow extrapolation outside the range of observation, but econometric is an advantage. Key words: non-parametric methods, variables, regression function, appraisal JEL Classification: C01, C51
General aspects Contrary to the other domains, the economic theory is rarely mentioning functional forms but, usually, it specifies only a list of the relevant variables in order to explain a phenomenon. The specification of the relation form is resulting, to a great extent, out of an empirical study containing a good model which works well. A first level of analysis consists of writing a model (linear, logarithm linear, non-linear etc.) and performing the estimation without taking into account its approximate nature. A second approach consists of specifying a parametrical model which incorrect specification is explicit. This is leading, for instance, to the correction of the expression for variations or to the selection of the models for the erroneous specification.
38
Practically, we have to get all the specified conditions by adopting a nonparametrical approach when estimating the regression, in which the data themselves are selecting the form of the function to be built up. Various methods (models) for estimating the non-parametrical regression have been drawn up which are presently commonly used. We consider likewise the nucleus method, which is a simple one and, in certain situations, dominated by other approaches. The non-parametrical methods are useful but they are raising certain problems. In practice, they are requiring a large number of observations and are to apply to a relatively small number of explanatory variables. Moreover, the outcome is sensitive to the selection of the equalizing parameter and, to a smaller extent to the nucleus. They are raising a problem as to submitting the outcomes which cannot be covered by a compact formula but can be described by means of diagrams. A non-parametrical analysis does not allow an extrapolation outside the observation domain but, from the econometric point of view, this is an advantage. In order to redeem some of these difficulties, semi-parametrical methods have been developed which purpose is to estimate only certain characteristics of the regression or to constrain the regression function to satisfy certain conditions. The dimension of the issue is thus reduced and the obtaining of the outcomes facilitated. Meantime, it is possible to insert also structural conditionings to the model. For the beginning, we take into consideration the standard estimation of the regression nucleus and then, we discuss certain problems of the estimation for specific characteristics of the regression or the estimation under compulsion. The band lengths for the variables The previous expression is transformed in the following mode. In the dispersion terms, hn becomes
q
q j =1
h jn .
In addition, the same argument as the one applied to the density can be utilized in order to set up the width of the band and nucleus. We can use the expression of the squared mean asymptotic integrated error in order to derive the best width of the band at z fix. This calculation implies that g and f are known. We can go on with estimating the f and g, first with a couple of initial values of the band width and, then, by using these estimations in order to improve the band width. This procedure is merely a delicate one because it requires the estimation of the differentials, which are converging slowly (and need a large sample) and the conditioned dispersion. This method of connecting has been also extended to the selection of a specific band width for each explanatory variable. After replacing the band width by its optimum value, we can look after an optimum nucleus, which is the Epanechnikov nucleus, as in the case of the density estimation.
39
An alternative approach for selecting the optimum width consists of the socalled crossed validation method. The expression does not depend on hn and can be numerically minimized by observing hn for a given interval. The AMISE calculation is based on two conditions, respectively: the fact that dar and on the double difference of the observation density. The distance between g and gn , measured by AMISE can be reduced by assuming a differentiation at a higher order or by selecting K so that: for j < r In this case, the smallest r in this formula is called the order of the nucleus K. To note that when K is a density of measurement of the probability (K non negative), then r equals to 2. The term of the systematic error is then equal, up to a multiplicative constant, with h n2 min( s , r ) , where s is the order of the differentiation and r is the order of the nucleus. The disadvantage of the nucleuses of high order, of order higher then 2,, is that there are no more densities and the estimated densities can be negative, at least on small samples. When Lf hn equals to the optimum choice, the convergence rate becomes:
nhn
This is the convergence non-parametrical optimum rate with the measure q which can be compared with the usual parametrical rate, namely n . We are checking the fact that indeed the interval between the two rates increases along with the increase of q . In order to utilize this outcome in practice, we must estimate the density and the conditional dispersion. The density is estimated by the nucleus and, similarly, the conditional dispersion. The estimation of the regression function transformation Instead of the estimation of the regression function, we can analyze a transformation of this function. The option for this transformation is grounded by
the economic analysis which defines the parameters of interest. Obviously , there are many transformations which can be considered but we shall focus on a specific class characterized by the relation:
since g(z) is defined only if f m arg ( z ) > 0 . The parameter of interest
y|~ z = z ) , and w(z) is a weight function which is In this formula , g ( z ) = E ( ~ either scalar, or vectorial and satisfies w(z)=0 if f m arg ( z ) = 0 , which is natural
is scalar
or vectorial. This class of transformation is justified by the properties of the resulting estimator and, meantime, by its relevance as regards many issues of applied econometrics, which are special situations of these analyses. Before entering into details, we notice the fact that this transformation does not insert the over-determination of the conditions on the variables distribution. We shall estimate the mean of the regression differentials. We have seen that the parametrical estimation of a regression erroneously specified does not allow us to consistently estimate the differentials of this function in a certain point. In many econometrical issues, the differentials are parameters of interest. The estimation is possible but its rate of convergence is very slow and, consequently, requires a large sample. Nevertheless, in many applications it is enough to estimate the mean of the regression differentials, namely:
where is a multiple index of the derivation and is the derivation defined by this multiple index. The function v(z) is a density on the explanatory variable which can be equal to f m ( z ) , the density of the actual explanatory variable being studied. We shall analyze the under-additively test. In order to illustrate this situation, lets assume that the function C is the function cost which associates an expected cost with the quantities of the different products z. The economic theory is interested in the under-additively C, namely it is:
Which means that, the cost of a company producing of several companies each producing
z
j =1
, is lower than the cost
z j . The above property must be true for
each p and each sequence ( z 1 ,..., z p ) . It is easy to show that this property is equivalent to the property which will be explicitly shown by the content. If is
41
~ the density of the sum z + ... + z and the density the density ( z 1 ,..., z p ) , 1 p j
z j , than, it is equivalent with the fact that for each , we have:
The reciprocal is resulting by taking into account the distribution on ( z 1 ,..., z p ) focused in one point. Now, we shall approach the under-additively test. The previous relation suggests that there is a defined, namely:
the sign of this parameter having to be tested. The estimation of defined can be made in two modes. The first variant consists of the estimation of g followed by the calculation. The second approach avoids the estimation g and is based on the particularity given by the utilized (final) function:
This condition is seldom satisfied. We can replace
f m arg
with a
parametrical or non-parametrical estimation. Implicitly, we assume that w is given. In practice, iv can be partially or totally unknown (since it is, for instance, a function of f m arg ) and thus w must be replaced by an estimation. A procedure of adjustment is inserted sometimes, consisting of the elimination of the data placed at the limit of the support of the explanatory variables distribution. The adjustment can be inserted in the function w as the form of a function with multiplying indicator.
at . Indeed, we The main asymptotic result is the convergence rate n

know: in the frame regularity conditionings and under the condition that the bands width have an adequate asymptotic behavior. In order to limit the problems of dimensioning or to impose certain restrictions originating in the economic theory, we often assume that the conditioned probability g(z), which is a function of the variables q, depends in fact on the functions of a reduced number of variables and, possibly, on certain parameters. In fact, there are two points of view being expressed: either we assume that g is actually restricted to this specific form or we
are searching for the best approximation g through an element satisfying the considered restrictions. References Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Bardsen, G., Nymagen, R., Jansen, E. (2005) The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling, Oxford University Press Benjamin, C., Herrard A., Hanee-Bigot, M., Tavere, C. (2010) Forecasting with an Econometric Model, Springer Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition, Oxford University Press Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press
43
Sales Force Motivation and Compensation

Assoc. prof. Anca-Mihaela TEAU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract This article illustrate how sales managers can use sales incentives and compensations to motivate their sales team. To motivate sales people effectively, sales managers must have a thorough understanding of human needs and the concepts of motivation. They must also learn how to use the various forms of sales incentives and compensation to meet their salespeoples needs. Key words and expressions: commission plans, incentive, sales force motivation, sales compensation JEL Classification: O15, M31
Nowadays many companies have began to revise their sales incentive and compensation plans to reflect changes in sales strategies and tactics. For instance, the growth of international marketing requires that sales incentive and compensation be changed to reflect cultural, political and economic differences in other countries. Sales practices and operations are likely to be different and as a result management will be challenged to find the best way to motivate global sales personnel. The variety of sales commission plans make compensating individuals in a sales more complicated than with employees in others parts of a company. A salesperson's compensation often includes combinations of salary, commission, bonus, sales contests, and nonfinancial rewards and recognition programs. To illustrate this problems, I structured the present article in three parts, first of them approaches the sales motivation, in the second part are presented some considerations to help develop a compensation plan that contributes to a high performance sales team and finally in the last part there are described the basic components of most sales commission plans. 1. Sales force motivation One of the most difficult problem a sales manager faces is the motivation of the sales force. Motivation is the process that produces goal-directed behavior in an individual. It helps to initiate desired behavior in an individual and direct it toward the attainment of organizational goals. Motivation consists of three elements - need, drive and goal. Satisfaction of the need in the individual cuts off the drive in him to work toward satisfaction of the need. The effectiveness of the sales force plays a crucial role in the success and growth of an organization. In order to attain the goals of the organization, it is essential that the sales force is highly motivated.
Motivation in the sales function refers to the amount of effort a salesperson is willing to expend in the selling job. While some salespersons are self-motivated, there are others who need to be motivated to perform. Sales managers can motivate their team by following any of the theories of motivation, namely, Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, Herzberg's two-factor theory, goal-setting theory, expectancy theory, and job design theories. Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory classifies the needs of an individual into five categories - physiological, safety or security, social, self-esteem and self-actualization needs. Physiological needs are the lowest order needs while self-actualization needs are the highest order needs. Further, as lower order needs get satisfied, an individual strives to satisfy higher order needs. Herzberg's two-factor theory states that the job environment of an individual is characterized by two types of factors - hygiene factors and motivational factors. The goal-setting theory presumes that people have specific needs and aspirations to fulfill for which they set certain goals for themselves. They then go about achieving these goals by taking purposeful action. Further, setting higher goals produces higher output. The expectancy theory states that an individual is motivated by the perceived consequences of his or her actions. According to this theory, motivation is a function of expectation, valence and instrumentality. Job design theories assume that all individuals have the same needs, and that ensuring certain job characteristics can satisfy these needs. A salesperson's motivation plays a crucial role in influencing his performance and thereby his productivity. Salespersons having a high level of motivation tend to perform well in the selling job and have high productivity. On the other hand, salespersons who lack motivation tend to be poor performers and fail to achieve their sales targets. Such salespersons hence tend to have low productivity. Creating desire is part skill and technique, and part behaviour and style. In modern selling and business, trust and relationship (the 'you' factor) are increasingly significant, as natural competitive development inexorably squeezes and reduces the opportunities for clear product advantage and uniqueness.1 Sales managers can take various measures to motivate the sales force and boost its productivity. These measures can be in the form of sales quotas, sales contests, well- designed compensation plans and reward systems, etc. The sales compensation plan has a greater impact on the company's results than any other single document. It impacts the behavior of the sales organization in a direct fashion. Salespeople are generally paid differently than all other functions within the company. Their performance is easily quantified and measured. As a result, their compensation is generally comprised of a base salary, and a quota or commission. 2. Sales Commission Plans The best sales compensation programs are ones that are fair, motivating and will achieve the goals of the company. Setting unrealistic sales goals, or
1
Anca Mihaela Teau, Cristina Protopopescu (2011), AIDA, Hierarchy of Effects, Revista Romn de Statistic, trim. III/2011, pp., ISSN 1018-046x
45
putting unrealistic ceilings on earnings power will create discord in the ranks of the top salespeople. Sales commission plans can be rewarding and motivating if done correctly. It can have a negative impact on motivation resulting lower sales when structured poorly. There is no one size fits all process for developing a compensation plan. There are considerations to help develop a compensation plan that contributes to a high performance sales team. Sales commission plans should not be developed in a vacuum. Make sure the compensation plan and budget are developed in conjunction with the Company's overall planning process. It is a good idea to involve the sales team when creating the compensation plan. They can contribute ideas and practical feedback borne from experience. Develop the compensation plan to focus on both tactical sales objectives and the company's strategic objectives and goals. Consider organizational goals including profit, growth, market share, product line revenue, and business development when creating the plan. Make certain the plan does not direct sales behavior away from organization objectives. Salespeople always maximize a sales plan to their personal benefit and reward. The Company job is to make sure the plan benefits everyone. Create metrics and measurable criteria for the tactical and strategic objectives mentioned above. Just looking at gross sales may cause other critical issues like customer satisfaction, customer retention, new business development, competitive sales, profitability, and individual product line sales to suffer. Keep your plan simple yet complete. It has to achieve the company objectives, but not be so complicated the salesperson cannot accurately determine how they are being rewarded. You do not want your sales people spending the first few days of each month arguing about compensation. Relationship building and consultative selling with major clients requires long-term engagements and often necessitates a fixed salary component to the plan. Design the compensation plan so it discourages turnover among the top sales people. Paying a little extra to keep top performers happy is far cheaper than the turnover caused by a poor compensation plan. Reward your sales team based on their contribution and worth, not just level of activity. Many top salespeople work smarter and more efficiently. Both performing tasks and achieving results are important, and the plan needs to be crafted to create the right balance. Create the sales commission plans so it differentiates between top, average, and inadequate performers. An effective plan will motivate top performers to continue performing high levels, average performers to improve their performance and poor performers to hopefully consider other lines of work. A plan without the right differentiation runs the risk of retaining poor performers and causing top performers to leave.
46
Perform benchmarking. If in improving sales target is to become the best in everything they do, sure benchmarking possible to know if he has reached the goal or when it will be achieved. This is the only instrument that teaches us how "good'' can become" best''. Well done, benchmarking will tell you directly what is now "the best'' and how to achieve this level of excellence2. Try to create plans that do not create direct competition between salespeople. The best plans do not have the entire sales team competing against each other for a fixed pot of compensation dollars. Reward salespeople for concentrating on customers, corporate objectives, and out selling your competition. Sales commission plans should be evolutionary, not revolutionary. Don't change the sales plan too radically or quickly. Completely revamping a compensation plan may appear arbitrary and confusing to the sales team. Involve the salespeople for ideas and feedback, and take it slow. There are times when a sales plan has to be changed quickly due to new products, mergers and acquisitions, or new market penetration. In this case, develop the new plan completely, and implement it swiftly so salespeople can immediately begin maximizing their rewards. A properly designed compensation plan allows above average performers to find a comfortable level of income without penalty. Remember that individuals are motivated differently by the types of sales jobs and their individual and personal agendas. The right sales commission plans have a positive impact on customers and the marketplace. A poor plan has the opposite effect. Use the sales contests judiciously. They can often motivate sales for short period of time, but they can also violate characteristics of a carefully crafted compensation plan, and make it hard for you to get your team back on track.
3.Types of commission plans There are many forms of commission plans. A commission plan can include many types of compensation and can include multiple formulas. Here are the basic components of most sales commission plans. a)Salary Only A straight salary compensation plan for salespeople is used for one of several reasons. It is first used when a new sales rep is brought into a company. It is also used when a new territory is opened or a person needs time to come up to speed and perform at the proper level. A salaried compensation for a period of time gives a new person that opportunity. Another reason to use salary only is when management is trying to motivate a salesperson to achieve key success factors that are not revenue or sales volume related. Salary only compensation is also used when is difficult to determine an individual's impact on the total selling effort.
Gresoi Sorin Gabriel Management and quality management, Pro Universitaria Publishing House, 2011, pg.140
2
47
Sometimes in team selling, or in global and multinational sales accounts, customer care and relationship building is the key focus. One way of guaranteeing proper account involvement is to compensate a sales rep using salary only. The advantages of salary only compensation are management can ask the sales people to spend their time completing tasks and activities that are important to the company's initiatives and objectives. Salary only plans are used when salespeople are expected to perform customer service, market research, customer problem solving, education, or other promotions. Also, straight salary plans can be used effectively where extensive high-tech integration and design services are required to get a product approved and sold. Another advantage to salary only plans is they are easy to compute and administer. They also give management more flexibility in positioning their sales force in a way that best meets corporate goals. Another added bonus for management is cost of sales stays fairly constant even with increasing sales volume. This results in cost per unit sold dropping and profitability rising. The disadvantage is when sales go down, salaries remained constant for a time, and they represent an ever-increasing percentage of sales. The other key consideration of a salary only commission plan is that financial rewards are not tied to a specific job performance. This causes performance evaluation to be more subjective. Since salaries are fixed, it does not provide an incentive for improving the rep's performance. Over long run, this type of compensation plan tends to attract security oriented sales people rather than the true high-performance hunters and business development reps. b)Straight Commission Having a compensation plan based entirely on commissions is an excellent way to motivate highly aggressive selling behavior. Straight commission is the right choice if the goal is to turn sales reps loose in a market or territory to maximize sales volume. Straight commission assumes that the non-selling tasks have been minimized in their importance at the expense of sales volume. Another consideration of a straight commission plan is companies have a harder time controlling sales force activities. Straight commission sales commission plans can be very motivational. Individuals who are motivated to improve their financial compensation are motivated to improve their sales production. However there is a point where further incremental effort and activity increases become less attractive to each person, and at that point sales productivity plateaus. Sale commission plans compose only of commission are simple and have a perceived sense of fairness. As long as each rep's territory is properly defined with approximately equal potential, compensation equals productivity. A straight commission plan makes it easy to compute and administer compensation. Compensation costs move up and down with sales volume which makes this attractive to companies that may be trying to save working capital. The company doesn't need to worry about paying higher wages and salaries unless sales volumes increase. There are some disadvantages to straight commission plans. There is less control over sales reps, and less control over directing other corporate objectives. It
may be difficult to get reps to think about relationship building activities that do not lead to short-term sales when every sales rep is trying to maximize sales. Developing new accounts takes more effort than getting business from existing accounts. As a result, straight commission plans often encourage milking existing customers rather than developing new business. Getting market data, feedback, and analysis from your sales team may also be problematic with this type of plan. Many sales people dislike straight commission plans because earnings are unstable and unpredictable. When business conditions are poor, turnover rates are likely to be high. Some companies try to compensate this with a draw advanced to the salesperson against future commissions. Draws need to be paid at a future date from commissions earned. Often though, the salesperson may fail to earn enough commissions to repay the draw or they may quit or be fired before the draw is repaid. In those cases, the company has to absorb the loss. c)Combination Sales Commission Plans Combination sales commission plans offer both a base salary plus an incentive based on production. These pay plans are popular with many companies because they have many advantages while avoiding many of the limitations of the other plans. The salesperson gets a stable salary that smoothes out the highs and lows. Management gets the advantage of having more ability to direct and reward their salespeople to perform tasks and activities not directly related to short-term revenue. The incentive portion of the plan motivates a salesperson to increase sales revenue and profitability. The incentive program can be structured in a tiered format to incentivize top sales reps to achieve on an open-ended basis. All revenues a sales rep brings in above their quota, is very profitable business for a company. The company gains additional revenue and profit, but the fixed expenses for the wage and benefits for the sales rep does not increase. There are aspects of this plan that can vary. Sometimes incentives are left open-ended and sometimes they are capped. Occasionally an extremely large windfall deal is won by a sales rep that throws the incentives out of balance. Another consideration is defining exactly when a sales rep is credited with a completed sale and is due commission payments. The ratio of the base to incentive is something each company needs to determine. When a sales rep's activities are mostly related to short-term sales, the incentive portion of the pay is usually higher. When a sales rep is asked to do more relationship building and activities that don't bring in short-term revenue, the base salary is usually adjusted upwards. Increase the incentive portion of the plan when selling the product is difficult, and the salesperson is key to the sales success. The incentive portion should be reduced when the salespeople are largely order takers. References: Anca-Mihaela Teau, Tehnici de vanzare, Editura ProUniversitaria Bucuresti, 2009 Anca Mihaela Teau, Cristina Protopopescu (2011), AIDA, Hierarchy of Effects, Revista Romn de Statistic, trim. III/2011, pp., ISSN 1018-046x
49
Andris A. Zoltners,Prabhakant Sinha,Sally E. Lorimer, The Complete Guide to Sales Force Incentive Compensation, ISBN-10:0-8144-7324-5, New York, 2006 Gresoi Sorin Gabriel Management and quality management, Pro Universitaria Publishing House, 2011 Thomas N. Ingram, Raymond W. LaForge, Ramon A. Avila, Sales Management: Analysis and Decision Making, ISBN- 978-0-7656-2259-4, 2009
50
New Global Financial Regulatory Framework

Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract This paper presents the main aspects regarding the new regulations applicable in the global finances. Triggered by the occurrence of the 2008 crisis, the regulatory framework reform induces significant modifications in the national legal provisions for the financial system. Key words: reform, board, stability, supervision, coordination JEL Classification: N20, G18
The 2008 crisis was international and financial services were at the base, revealing problems like regulatory gaps, ineffective monitoring, opaque markets and financial products much too complex. As a result, several committees and working groups have been established to reform the global financial regulatory framework in the context of the current financial crisis. The purpose of these initiatives was to prevent that the financial system would never again crash and disrupt the global economy. There is also a big concern for the future to avoid that taxpayers will underwrite big banks bailouts. Therefore, major changes are in force at the global level, but also in the United States, the European Union and other national legislation. Following these new set of rules, regulators acquired new skills and powers in financial supervision and new institutions were born to control risks in the financial system. The new regulatory framework is highly complex and there is still much work to be done. But the new rules and new institutions, such as the Basel III rules, the Dodd - Frank Act in the United States, besides mitigating financial risks and ensure investors, had unexpected results. For example, by avoiding getting into riskier activities and by the adoption of new capital requirements, banks poses in present large sums of money as protection against a possible new crisis. But as a result of these measures, the private sector credit has declined significantly in recent years, banks, choosing instead to make deposits in central banks or hold sovereign debts. Against such situations, it is very probable that in 2013 the ECB (European Central Bank) will have a negative interest rate for deposits made by commercial banks to money at the European Central Bank. There is also a tendency to oversee the entire financial system as a whole, integrating the various regulators of banks, insurance companies, pension funds. In
this respect we mention the emergence of new global regulatory institutions such as the Financial Stability Board, established by the G20 with a mission to lead the global agenda and to ensure consistency of the financial agenda. The Group of Twenty (G20) is the premier forum for international cooperation on the most important issues related to global economic and financial agenda. In the United States, the Dodd - Frank Act created two new institutions: the Financial Stability Oversight Council (a new entity that supervises risk of the financial system and coordinates work of other regulators) and the Office of Financial Research (OFR) housed within the US Treasury. The European Union is a world leader in the implementation of its G20 commitments. In this regard, the Commission has entrusted Mr. de Larosire too coordinate a high level working group to issue a set of recommendations on how the financial system can be strenghten and to propose a new architecture of European financial supervision institutions As a result, at European level we observe the establishment of the European Systemic Risk Board as part of the European System of Financial Supervision. Following we will presents a preview of these new institutions and regulations: 1. New international financial system regulators: Financial Stability Board: The Financial Stability Board - FSB has been established to lead at the international level, the work of national financial authorities and international standard setting bodies and to develop and promote the implementation of effective, regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies . The FSB brings together national authorities responsible for financial stability in significant international financial centers, international financial institutions, international groupings of regulators and sectorial supervisors, and committees of central bank experts. FSB's mandate is to: a. assess vulnerabilities affecting the financial system and identify and oversee action needed to address them; b. promote the exchange of information and coordination between the authorities responsible for financial stability; c. monitor and advise on market developments and their implications for regulatory policy; d. advise and monitor best practice in meeting regulatory standards; e. undertake joint strategic reviews of the policy development work of the international standard setting bodies to ensure their work is timely, coordinated, focused on priorities and address the gaps; f. establish guidelines for and support the establishment of supervisory colleges;
52
g. manage plans for cross-border crisis management, particularly with regard to systemically important firms, and h. collaborate with the IMF to conduct early warning exercises. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision provides a forum for regular cooperation on bank surveillance issues. Its objective is to improve the understanding of key issues in monitoring and perfectionate the quality of banking supervision worldwide. It aims at exchanging information on national supervisory issues, approaches and techniques, in order to promote a common understanding. Sometimes, the Commission uses this common understanding to develop guidelines and supervisory standards in areas where they are considered desirable. In this regard, the Committee is best known for its international standards on capital adequacy; fundamental principles for effective banking supervision, and the Concordat on cross-border banking supervision. The Committee encourages contacts and cooperation between its members and other banking supervisory authorities. It circulates to supervisors throughout the world, both published and unpublished documents providing guidance on bank surveillance issues. Contacts were strengthened by an International Conference of Banking Supervisors (ICBS) which takes place every two years. Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems "Basel III" is a comprehensive set of reform measures, developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to strengthen the regulation, supervision and risk management of the banking realm. These measures aim to: a. improve the capacity of the banking sector to absorb shocks due to economic and financial stress, regardless of the source; b. improve governance and risk management; c. enhance transparency and disclosure of banks; d. the reforms target; e. bank-level, or microprudential, regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking institutions to periods of stress; f. macroprudential, system wide risks that can build up across the banking sector as well as the procyclical amplification of these risks over time. These two approaches are complementary, as greater resilience at the individual bank level reduces the risk of system wide shocks. Basel III is part of the Committee's continuous effort to enhance the banking regulatory framework. It builds on the International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards document (Basel II). 2. New financial system regulators in the United States: Financial Stability Oversight Council The Financial Stability Oversight Council has a clear statutory mandate that creates for the first time collective accountability for identifying risks and
responding to emerging threats to financial stability. It is a collaborative establishment, chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury that brings together the expertise of federal financial regulators, independent insurance experts appointed by the President and government regulators. In addition, to assist in the identification of emerging risks to financial stability, the FSOC can provide guidance and request data and analyzes from the newly created Office of Financial Research (OFR) housed within the US Treasury. The Council has significant new powers to constrain excessive risk in the financial sector. For instance, the FSOC has the authority to designate a nonbank financial firm for tough new supervision to help minimize the risk of such a firm from threatening the stability of the financial system. Before the crisis, the U.S. financial regulatory framework focused narrowly on individual institutions and markets, which allowed supervisory gaps to grow and regulatory inconsistencies to emerge in turn, allowing arbitrage and weakened standards. No single regulator was responsible for the fight against global risks to financial stability, which often involve different types of financial institutions operating in multiple markets, leaving large parts of the financial system unregulated. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act addressed these problems through the creation of FSOC, which is authorized to: a. facilitate regulatory coordination; b. facilitate the sharing of information and Collection; c. designate nonbank financial companies for consolidated supervision; d. designate Systemic Financial Market Utilities and Systemic Payment, Clearing, or Settlement Activities; e. recommend higher standards; f. break Up Firms that Pose a Grave Threat to Financial Stability. Reform of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street and Consumer Protection Act The complete name is: An Act to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end too big to fail, to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes. The Act amends the existing regulatory structure, such as the creation of a multitude of new offices (while merging and removing others) in order to streamline the regulatory process, increasing supervision of institutions considered a specific risk systemic amending the Federal Reserve Act, to promote transparency and additional changes. The Act purports to provide rigorous standards and supervision to protect the economy and American consumers, investors and businesses, purports to end taxpayer funded bailouts of financial institutions, claims to provide for an advanced warning system on the stability of the economy, creates rules on executive compensation and corporate governance, and eliminates some loopholes that led to
the 2008 economic recession. The new agencies are either granted explicit power over a particular aspect of financial regulation, or that power is transferred from an existing agency. All of the new and some existing agencies are not required to do so, are also forced to report to Congress on an annual basis (or biannual) to present the results of lesson plans and explain future goals. Of the existing agencies, changes are proposed, ranging from new powers to the transfer of powers in order to improve the regulatory system. Institutions affected by these changes include most regulatory agencies currently involved in the control of the financial system: a. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) b. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) c. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) d. Federal Reserve (the "Fed") e. Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), etc.. 3. New regulators of EU financial system: European Systemic Risk Board In response to the global financial crisis, the European Commission appointed a High Level Group chaired by Jacques de Larosire to examine how the European system of supervision could be strengthened to better protect its citizens so as to restore confidence in the financial system. Among its many findings, the group noted that the monitoring arrangements should not only focus on the supervision of individual firms, but also focus on the stability of the financial system as a whole. In 2009, the de Larosire report recommended, among other things, to establish a Union level body with a mandate to monitor risks in the financial system as a whole. The ESRB is part of the European System of Financial Supervision (ESFS), the purpose of which is to monitor the financial system in the European Union. Besides the ESRB, the ESFS shall comprise: a. the European Banking Authority (EBA); b. European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA); c. European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA); d. the Joint Committee of European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs); e. the competent or supervision authorities in the Member States as specified in the Act establishing the three ESAs. In the next article we will analyse progress made by Romania to adopt at national level legislation on supervising the whole financial system. In these respect, a main point will consist in reviewing the legislation procedure that is now in progress (February 2013) for establishing the Authority for Financial Supervision. We will examine if the adopted legislation represent a correct harmonization of the international and European legislation in this matter.
55
References Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act; EU regulation N0 1092/2010 on European Union macro-prudential oversight of the financial system and establishing a European Systemic Risk Board; Green Paper on Shadow Banking European Commission; Regulation (EU) No 1093/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 establishing a European Supervisory Authority (European Banking Authority); Regulation (EU) No 1094/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 establishing a European Supervisory Authority (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority); Regulation (EU) No 1095/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 establishing a European Supervisory Authority (European Securities and Markets Authority); Council Regulation (EU) No 1096/2010 of 17 November 2010 conferring specific tasks upon the European Central Bank concerning the functioning of the European Systemic Risk Board; http://www.g20.org; http://www.financialstabilityboard.org; http://www.bis.org/bcbs/index.htm; http://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm; http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/fsoc/Pages/home.aspx; http://www.sec.gov/about/laws/wallstreetreform-cpa.pdf; http://www.esrb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html; http://eur-lex.europa.eu; Bank Corporate Governance, Beyond the Global Banking Crisis INSEAD (Jean DERMINE 2011/33/FIN); Green Paper on Corporate Governance in Financial institutions: Lesson to be drawn from the current financial crisis, best practices European Commission; Non-bank financial institutions: Assessment of their impact on the stability of the financial system Economic Papers 472/November 2012 European commission.
56
Gross Domestic Product/inhabitant and Occupation of the Labor Force

Ligia PRODAN PhD Student prodanligia@yahoo.com Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract The author analyzes the correlation between two important macroeconomic indicators, the GDP/inhabitant and the degree of occupation of the labor force. This correlation reveals the importance of the second indicator for the evolution of the GDP. The results, achieved by using Eviews 5.1, are presented in both descriptive and graphical manner. Key words: labor force, correlation, hypothesis, model, estimation JEL Classification: E01
Regression and correlation method indicates how the characteristic result of Y changes in conditions where the characteristics of values X changes. The goal of regression is to identify the mathematical relationship that exist between two variables. To assess the intensity of the relationship between two variables, the level of correlation between them is determined, which indicates the intensity of the connection between variables by measuring the scattering degree of recorded data around the regression line. Employment rate of the population General employment rate calculated as a ratio between population and total population was 43.05%, by using the relationship:
RO g =
PO 100 PT
where: RO = employment rate PT = total population PO = employment population. The employment rate of working age population (15- 64 years) is calculated by gender and by area. From the calculations made, it results that the employment rate of working age population (15- 64 years) registered in 2011 levels of 58.5%, with higher values for the employed male 65% compared to 52% for the females and those in rural areas 58.8% to 58.2% for those in urban areas. The analysis considered data sets and the estimation the parameters of regression model was performed using specialized software package Eviews 5.1.
57
Thus, in a first stage of analysis peculiarities of the two data sets previously considered were studied. As can be seen from the above table, the evolution of the two macroeconomic indicators is very similar, with sharp increases for the period 1990 - 2008 and a decrease of approximately 4 to 5% in 2009.
Figure 1 Evolution of employment rate
Figure 2 GDP evolution To confirm the above hypothesis, we performed the graphical representation of data series (using at this specific commands implemented within the software package Eviews 5.1), this tool is particularly useful for identifying a typology that defines the correlation function of the two indicators analyzed:
Figure 3 The correlation between employment rate and GDP per inhabitant As you can see, the graphic above evidences a direct linear connection between the two indicators, which allows us to affirm that it is possible to use simple linear regression model to study the dependence between the GDP per inhabitant and the employment rate of the population. Estimating the parameters of regression model using the variable as the employment rate of people employed and the GDP per inhabitant value as variable dependence was performed automatically (Figure 6), using specialized software package Eviews 5.1. Its framework is implemented least-squares method (Least Squares) as a method for estimating the model parameters, requiring only define two variables (PIB_L and E) and the constant term (C). Using this method work, the following results have been obtained on the evolution of the phenomenon studied:
Figure 4 Parameter estimation results of the regression model that analyzes the dependency between GDP per inhabitant and population employment rate
59
Analyzing the results obtained it is possible to formulate practical conclusions concerning the dependence between the value of GDP per inhabitant and employment rate of the population, as follows: The probability that this is a correct model is relatively high - about 61%, this conclusion can be made based on the values determined using Eviews program for testing R - squared (0.6094) and Adjusted R - squared (0.5606); The validity of this model is confirmed by regression test values F statistic (12.48500 - higher value than table level is considered to be the benchmark in analysis validity of econometric models) and the degree of risk almost zero (reflected by test value Prob F - statistic) Based on the above, we consider the regression model describing the relationship between the GDP per inhabitant and the employment rate of the population as fair, which faithfully reflect the real evolution of the two macroeconomic indicators. Based on estimated values previously considered regression model may be given as follows: PIB = - 633,663.4 + 11,150.08 RO Between the value of GDP per inhabitant and population employment rate recorded in Romania in the period 2002 - 2011 there is a significant direct relationship. Thus, we can say that a one percent increase in employment will lead to an increase with 11,150.08 currency units for the GDP/inhabitant. The high value of the constant term reflects that the influence of the unspecified factors in the model on resultative variable evolution (GDP per inhabitant) is significant, which leads us to conclude that the model used (although is correct) can be developed to ensure even better outcomes for activity prediction. Between the employment rate and GDP / inhabitant there is a direct linear (Table 3, Figure 3,4 and 5) whose trend can be evidenced by the equation: = 633,663,4 + 11,150.08 x , which gives the following results: y Correlation coefficient ry/x = 0.7804 indicates a strong link between the two variables:
r = R 2 = 0.609 = 0,7804;
The determination report confirms that the employment rate is a determinant factor ( R 2 50% ) for GDP growth/ inhabitant, its variation influencing the rate by 61%. To verify the significance of the linear correlation coefficient t test (Student) is applied, by calculating the variable tcalc by the relation:
t calc =
ry / x 1 ry2/ x
n2
60
where: ry/x = linear correlation coefficient. n = number of pairs of observed values =10
t calc =
0,7804 1 0,609
10 2 = 3,531
probabilistic set to a level of significance and n-2 degrees of freedom. If t calc > t tabelat the hypothesis significance of correlation is checked, and if found to apply the correlation method. With a 95% probability and 8 degrees of freedom t tabelat has a value of 2.306. Because t calc > t tabelat , 3,531 > 2,306 , we can say that the hypothesis for the significance of correlation between variables investigated is verify and and there is a connection between investigated variables significant, so ry/x is statistically significant and analysis model is correctly specified.
tcalc value is compared with the critical value, the table, t tabelat , that is
t calc < t tabelat the relationship is insignificant, so a key determinant will have to be
References Anghelache C., (2008) Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic, Editura Economica, Bucureti Anghelache, C (coordonator) i alii (2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic (Supliment) Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) Statistic pentru afaceri, Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, ISBN 978-606-647-312-5 *** Institutul Naional de Statistic Anuarul Statistic al Romniei, Ediiile 2010, 2011, 2012
61
A Study of the Relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility - Financial Performance Firm Size
Prof. Georgeta VINTIL, PhD Florinita DUCA, PhD Student The Bucharest University of Economic Studies vintilageorgeta@yahoo.fr florinitaduca@yahoo.com Abstract The notion of corporate social responsibility is established on the reciprocal dependence between a company and society, as well as the indicators that influence this relationship. This paper explores whether profitability and company size have a potential influence on levels of corporate social responsibility according the annual dates of romanian companies, using statistical correlations. The research found that company size and company profitability have an influence toward the corporate social responsibility. Key words: Corporate social responsibility, profitability, company size JEL Classification: C10, G10, G30.
Introduction Corporate social responsibility is a business philosophy gaining popularity in the 21st century. The definition of corporate social responsibility is not abstruse. Corporate social responsibility is the continuing commitment by business to behave ethically and contribute to economic development while improving the quality of life of the workforce and their families as well as of the local community and society at large (The World Business Council for Sustainable Development). Corporate social responsibility can be defined as the "economic, legal, ethical, and discretionary expectations that society has of organizations at a given point in time" (Carroll and Buchholtz, 2003). Mathews (1993) has defined social and environmental disclosure as: organizations voluntarily disclosing both quantitatively and qualitatively about their corporate social responsibility activities in order to inform their stakeholders. Corporate social responsibility social activities may include charitable contributions to local and national organizations such as fundraising, donations. Corporate social responsibility is defined as the voluntary activities undertaken by a company to operate in an economic, social and
62
environmentally sustainable manner, like resulting from information published by the Romanian companies on specialized pages ( www.responsabilitatesociala.ro). Prior Literature and Hypotheses Development A considerable number of theoretical and empirical research on corporate social responsibility disclosure have been undertaken throughout the world due to the continuing emphasis on green awareness (Basalamah and Jermias, 2005). Company Profitability and Corporate Social Responsibility Profitability is the company's ability to produce a profit that would sustain long-term and short-term growth. The higher the level of corporate profitability should be the greater the level of social disclosure (Hackston and Milne, 1996). Profitability of company is measured by return on assets. Return on assets is a financial ratio used by business managers to determine how much money they're making on how much investment. Return on assets gives an indication of the capital intensity of the company, which will depend on the industry. It is given by the ratio between net income and total assets. Uadiale and Fagbemi (2011), found that company profitability has positive effect on corporate social responsibility. Their study is based on the voluntary disclosure index constructed using the annual report of the sampled companies. Dependent variable of the study is financial performance which is represented by return on equity (measured as a proportion of Profit after tax to issued share capital) and return on assets (measured as the proportion of Profit after tax to total assets). The independent variables/parameters are community performance, environment management system and employee relations. Lev et al.(2008) examines the causality between corporate social responsibility(measured by charitable contributions) and financial performance, measured by sales growth. They demonstart as that corporate philanthropy programs have evolved towards congruence between business and social objectives (strategic giving), and that firms will not substantially invest in corporate social responsability giving unless it adds economic value. Drawing upon theoretical arguments, Akpinar et al. (2008) demonstrated empirical evidence which shows that once stakeholders are prioritized corporate social responsibility has a positive impact on market-based financial performance whereas this kind of an impact does not exist when stakeholders are given equal weights. In their paper, Vintila et al.(2009) established a positive relationship between social performance(CSP), measured through a coefficient, and financial performance of companies (size and profitability), at the level of a sample of Romanian companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange. Duca (2011) found that there is a positive relationship between corporate social responsibility expenditure and firm performance. Teoh at al. (1999), and Aly et al. (2010) found that company profitability has no effect on corporate social responsibility. Therefore, we formulate our hypothesis as follows: H1: There is a significant relationship between profitability and corporate social responsibility
63
Company Size and Corporate Social Responsibility Company size is the size of the company's image, which can be assessed based on the volatility of the company's activities, which can be viewed from various aspects. Company size is the independent variable which explain variation corporate social responsability. Size of company is measured by the total assets. From an empirical perspective, various studies have found that there is a positive relationship between corporate social responsibility and firm size. Uwalomwa(2011) identify a significant positive relationship exists between the size of firms (financial sector) and the level of corporate social disclosure. So, simply implies that the larger the size of a firm, the more they will be willing to invest on resources and corporate environmental technologies that are environmentally friendly. Parsa and Deng (2008), which employ data from U.K., indicate that a positive change in company size leads to positive and significant change in amount of corporate social responsibility disclosure. Branco and Rodrigues (2008) show that the amount of corporate social responsibility disclosure in large companies is higher than small companies, because stakeholders expect greater corporate social responsibility disclosure from large companies than small companies. Social responsibility disclosure does not relate to the company size. csr disclosure might be influenced by the concern of the management or the environmental awareness(Rahman and Widyasari, 2008). Therefore, we formulate our second hypothesis as follows: H2: Company size has a positive influence toward corporate social responsibility Research methodology We examined the relationship between profitability company, size company and corporate social responsibility on a sample of companies for the 2008 financial year. Data was gathered from publicly available information, as well as information from corporate social responsibility of Romania. Data has been analysed by using correlation and regression. In order to test the above hypotheses, the study will investigate the following models: Y = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + (1), Where; Y represents corporate social responsibility(measured by the corporate social expenditure, CSR); X1 represents Profitability(measured by return on assets, ROA); X2 represents Size( measured by the total assets); it = Error term. Corporate social expenditure budgets for Romanian companies(Figure nr. 1) are divided into the following areas: education, culture, environment, social, human rights and sport (www.responsabilitatesociala.ro).
64
40 30 20 10 0 education culture environment human rights Sport social
number of companies
Figure nr. 1: areas of corporate social responsibility Source: www.responsabilitatesociala.ro; Regression Model Results Table 1 - Results of regression analysis Dependent Variable: CSR Variable SIZE ROA C R-squared Adjusted R-squared Durbin-Watson stat Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. 0.4947 0.0883 5.6017 0.0001 4.5860 1.0727 4.2754 0.0011 3.6245 1.8578 1.9510 0.0748 0.7592 F-statistic 18.9132 0.7190 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0002 2.7121
Table 1 presents the results of pooled regression analysis, the OLS method. The model explains 75.92 % of variation in corporate social responsibility, with significant F-statistic(R2 = 0.7592; This indicator shows how much from the total variance of the dependent variable is determined by the independent variables). So, this means that the corporate social responsibility is influenced by these two variables. The remaining 24.08% were influenced by other variables which are not tested in this study. Regression analysis is used to find how significant the influence of each independent variable, return on assets and company size, toward corporate social responsibility as the dependent variable. Hypothesis analysis The first hypothesis states that company profitability positively influence toward corporate social responsibility. This research result shows that p - value is 0.0001 < 0.05 in the positive direction, so H1 is accepted. It means that profitability has influence corporate social responsibility of the romanian companies. Management thinks that corporate social responsibility activities is like investment activities that will give positive return to the company. This is particularly supports the research done by Bedi (2009), that identified in his studies that there is a
positive relationship between financial Performance and Social expenditure, the correlation coefficient for the same is 0.974. The second hypothesis states that company size influence on corporate social responsibility expenditure. This research result shows that p - value is 0.0011 < 0.05 in the positive direction, so H1 is accepted. It means that size has influence corporate social responsibility of the romanian companies. This is particularly supports the research done by Uwalomwa(2011), a result of coefficient of determination of 0.89 and p - value is 0.000, what reveals that exist a significant positive relationship exists between the size of firms and the level of corporate social responsability. Conclusion The existing studies on the relation between corporate social responsibility expenditure and corporate financial performance provide mixed results. We have investigated the relation between corporate financial performance, size and corporate social responsibility using a sample of Romanian firms; corporate social responsibility is measured by the corporate social expenditure. The data showed that the amounts committed to social responsibility vary from one company to the other. Based on the results of hypothesis testing which has been carried out it is concluded that company size and company profitability has a positive effect on corporate social responsibility expenditure. The reliability of the corporate social responsibility data is an important issue, as data from different sources have significant differences regarding how to evaluate the corporate social responsibility performance of a firm. This study used a model that examined the effect of financial performance and company size with the corporate social responsibility as a dependent variable. Future studies are expected to improve the model by adding variables that affect corporate social responsability. This study is still subject to a number of limitations. Since we only employ data for a single year, future studies are suggested to incorporate a longer time span to provide more reliable insights on corporate social responsability. Our sample size is relatively small, mainly because information on the budget corporate social responsability expenditure are few, but know the area where the company carries out its projects. As it is becoming increasingly important for companies to integrate social and environmental concerns in their business strategies, it is important for managers of these companies to understand the relationship between financial performance and corporate social responsibility. References Aly, D., Simon, J. and Hussainey, K. (2010), Determinants of corporate internet reporting: evidence from Egypt, Managerial Auditing Journal.
66
Akpinar, A., Jiang, Y., Gomez-Mejia, L. R., Berrone, P. and Walls. J. L., (2008), Strategic use of CSR as a signal for good management,. IE Business School Working Paper. Basalamah A.S., and Jermias, J. (2005). Social and environmental reporting and auditing in Indonesia: maintaining organizational legitimacy?, GAMA International Journal of Business. Bedi, H. S.,(2009), Financial performance and social responsibility: indian scenario, Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1496291. Branco, M., and Rodrigues, L., (2008), "Factors Influencing Social Responsibility Disclosure by Portuguese Companies", Journal of Business Ethics. Carroll A., Buchholtz A., (2003), Business and Society. Ethics and Stakeholder Management, United Kingdom: South-Western, Thomson Learning. Duca F., (2011) Financial Performance and Social Responsibility: Romanian Scenario, Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series. Hackston, D. and Milne, M. J., (1996), Some determinant of social and environment disclosures in New Zealand Company, Accounting, Audit, and Accountability Journal. Lev, B. I., Petrovits, C. and Radhakrishnan, S., ( 2008), Is doing good good for you? How corporate charitable contributions enhance revenue growth, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=920502. Mathews, M. R., (1993), Socially responsible accounting. London: Chapman & Hall. Parsa, S. and Deng, L. X. (2008), Capital markets reactions to social information announcements, International Journal of Accounting and Finance. Rahman, A., and Widyasari, K. N., (2008), The analysis of company characteristic influence toward CSR disclosure: empirical evidence of manufacturing companies listed in JSX, Jurnal Akuntansi & Auditing Indonesia, 12 (1). Uadiale, O. M. and Fagbemi, T. O., (2011), Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Performance in Developing Economies: The Nigerian Experience, The 2011 New Orleans international Academic Conference. Vintila G., Armeanu St. D., Lazar P., Moscalu M., (2009), Study regarding the impact of the corporate social responsibility upon firms financial performance, www.ectap.ro. Uwalomwa, U., (2011), An empirical investigation of the association between firms characteristics and corporate social disclosures in the nigerian financial sector, Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa. Teoh, S., Welch, I. and Wazzan, C., (1999), The effect of socially activist investment policies on the financial markets: Evidence from the South African boycott, Journal of Business. www.responsabilitatesociala.ro. www.wbcsd.org
67
Analyzing the Domestic Trade and Public Nourishment Activity Statistical System of Indicators
Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Constantin MITRU PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Adina Mihaela DINU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract A precondition for final goods from producers is bringing them closer to the place of purchase for consumption (end-use). In this process may take one or more intermediaries, depending on the nature of the goods and the goods movement organization. Physical movement of goods is accompanied by storing them as continuous movement from one to another and dissolution unimpeded progress to the public can not be organized on the basis of efficient storage process. Key words: consumption, goods, movement, progress JEL Classification: L66
The indicators of goods stocks A preliminary condition for the final achievement of the goods is to bring them from the producers as close as possible to the place of their acquisition with the purpose of their consumption (final utilization). During this process, one or several intermediaries may interfere, depending on the goods nature and the way the goods movement is organized. The physical shifting of the goods is accompanied by their stocking, since the un-interrupted circulation from one intermediary to another as well as the unrestrained display to the population cannot be organized on the basis of efficient principles without a stocking process. In order to characterize statistically these quantities of products, a system of absolute and derived indicators is applied to, based on the records of goods products at the beginning or at the end of a surveyed period, as well as the stocks recorded at different moments of the period, by the time of the inventories.
The absolute level of the stock is shown up either in a physical expression or in a value expression. The physical stock is used in the frame of each commercial or public nourishment unit, on the basis of the primary evidence documents, which show the movement of the goods (shelve card, inputs/outputs notes, minutes concerning the findings of the loss/deterioration etc. ), as well as by the analytical records of every company. Knowing the size of the stock in a physical expression is required in order to calculate the storage-keeping spaces as well as for evaluating the actual possibilities to satisfy the demand for each and every product. In its value expression, the stock is reflecting an immobilization of funds supporting, on one side, the checking of the material administration within the commercial and public nourishment units and, on the other side, the qualitative characterization of the activity of each operative unit as well as its contribution to the outcomes achieved by the unit it is belonging. Over a period of activity, the stocks of products keep on changing, to the initial stock (Si) being added the entries (In) and deducted the usual exits (Ie), due to the sale to other intermediaries, respectively, the consumers or due to consumption of their own laboratories, kitchens, annexes of the public nourishment units, as well as the accidental exits losses (P) generated by the perishability, physical degradation, dilapidation, thefts etc. Out of this movement of the stocks during the studied period, there is a final stock (Sf) resulting, according to the relation: S f = Si + In Ie P The stock rate is set up as a percentage ratio between the size of a stock existing at a certain moment of the analyzed period (S) and the wholesales or, as the case it, retail sales, recorded during the respective period (D), according to the relation:
Ratastocul ui(%) =
S * 100 D
As the momentarily stock (S) is not always at a relevant level of the stocked volume, it is recommended that the stock rate is calculated on the basis of the average stock, typical for the studied period (month, quarter or year):
Ratastocul ui(%) =
S * 100 D
The relative size of the stock can be expressed also with the help of the stock indicator, expressed in days-hauling time for the wholesale units or stock expressed in days-sales for the retail and public nourishment units, according to the relation:
Stocnzile rulaj = S :
R sau Z
69
Stocnzile desfacere = S :
D Z , in which:
S = the existing stock at a given moment R = the total circulation of the studied month, quarter or year D = whole sales or retail sales Z = the number of days of the respective period The circulating speed of the goods is calculated according to the relation: D S *Z S V = =S: = Z D D Along with the absolute size of the goods stock meant to be sold, the international statistics is recording also the stocks rotation along the reporting period. This qualitative indicator of the domestic trade and public nourishment units, shows how many times the stocks are renewed during the studied period and is calculated by applying one of the calculation relations below:
Number of rotations of the stocks
D Z sau S V
The indicators of the commercial and public nourishment activity The economic activity run by the commercial and public nourishment units is reflected in the volume of sales and returns recorded during the period subject of the statistical survey. In the majority of the world countries, such information is collected monthly, quarterly or yearly, on the basis of a representative sample of operative units and the data aggregated at the national level are adjusted by means of a multiplying coefficient in order to estimate the total wholesales, respectively, retail sales. Obviously, the sample is so set up that it includes operative units of all kinds. The value volume of the wholesales circulation of goods includes: - resale of new or used goods by the retailers to the industrial and commercial users or to persons of other profession, to certain collectivities; there are included also the activities run by those intermediaries who buy goods or sell them on their own name but on the account of the unites specialized in wholesales. The wholesales stores are, usually, specialized depending on the nature of goods being circulated so; agricultural raw materials; minerals and industrial chemicals; oil and oil products; foods, beverage and tobacco; textiles and cloths; timber and construction materials; furniture; paper and paper articles; medicines, pharmaceutical specialties and various products; ironmongery articles and electrical equipment; machinery and spare parts for industry, trade and agriculture; cars and auto-moto pieces; scrap and waste etc.
70
As indicators of the circulation of a wholesale commercial store over the period of reference, we mention: Sales by categories of products; Sales on own account; Sales made on thirds account; Commissions cashed for the achieved transactions on the third parties account. The value volume of the retail goods circulation includes the resale to the population of the goods meant for individual or family consumption or for the household use; here we include also the products sales to the companies and communities in order to cover the collective consumption or the household use of these entities. The price indicators in the domestic trade and public nourishment In the sphere of the public nourishment, the selling prices are, usually, higher than in the case of the trade itself, even for those products which are not prepared at the consumption place. The special extra money for the public nourishment is differentiated depending on the degree of preparation of the products (prepared, semi-prepared, non-prepared), on the type of the units in which the sale is made, the comfort degree provided and the time of the sale (in the season or extra-season). In the retail price evolution analysis the prices index by groups of goods is calculated according to the relation:
Ip =
,where: i v = the individual index of the retail prices; v1 = the value volume of the sales under the new price conditions. This kind of indices is calculated for foodstuff, cloths and footwear, fuel and lightening. They enter into the calculation of the index of the goods prices and tariffs applied to the consumption services supplied to the population. The variation in time of the prices for the products sold on the rural market is characterized also by a price index, the estimation being based on the periodical records performed on a markets sample from different cities of the country. The decentralization of the economic activity, the gradual passing to a real autonomy of the commercial companies, the privatization of the commercial and public nourishment sector are influencing both the price system, in the sense of giving up the system of the unique prices, and the methodology for statistically watching of the price variation in time and space. Out of the international statistical practice it is resulting that, along with the dynamics of the supply prices of various suppliers of goods, it is useful to know the variation of the wholesale prices and, obviously, of the retail prices.
v 1 i *v
1 v
The data required by the estimation of these indices are provided by the monthly inquiries made on a sample of commercial units, respectively, public nourishment units, which inform on the level of prices for those products which are representative for each group of goods they are trading. The establishment of the price index is usually made through a weighted arithmetical average of the individual price indices, by considering the value volume of the sales during the base period (vo), according to the relation:
I p = i p *
activity
v0 v0
The indicators of costs of the commercial and public nourishment
The analysis of the economic and financial outcomes, including the establishment of the economic efficiency at the level of each unit or over the entire network of units belonging to a company or to a subsidiary of the commercial company and/or of public nourishment, is performed on the basis of strict records of all the revenues and expenses made during the period of reference. This kind of data can be obtained annually through two ways: through the responses received in the frame of the annual inquiries from the operative units side, respectively, through the fiscal statements submitted by each company. If in the first case we get an estimate of the indicators referring to the wholesale or retail sales, the cost of acquisition for the resold goods, the circulation expenses, the gross margin of allowance, extras etc., through the fiscal statements an exhaustive recording is achieved for all the financial flows of each unit with its own administration. The costs of the commercial and public nourishment activity are reflecting the consumption of labor and materials done in order to achieve the specific activity, either at the level of the operative unit or at the level of the entire unit. In the international statistics, these costs are generically known as exploitation costs during the period the inquiry is referring to (typically, the calendar year). The relative level of the costs (N) expresses the size of the expenses made in order to achieve 100 or 1000 lei whole or retail sales during the analyzed period:
N=
C * 100 (1000 ) D , where:
C = the total volume of costs D = goods sale achieved by the unit, the unit group or the commercial company under study. Another relative indicator is the rhythm of decrease (increase) of the relative level of the costs during the investigated period as against the base period. Noting with R this rhythm, we get it as follows:
72
R=
N1 N 0 * 100 N0
This indicator is the quantitative synthetic expression of the concerns as to administrate to the best the financial resources under the conditions of the own activity dynamics and of the influence often contradictory of the market conjuncture. At the numerator of this index, the difference (N1 N0) expresses the quantum of the decrease (increase) of its relative level of costs for the commercial or public nourishment activity (Q),and by applying this difference to the current value volume of the goods (D1) it results the absolute level of the savings or exceeding the costs (E) as against the performances of the activity during the base period:
E=
N D Q * D1 ( N 1 N 0 ) * D1 = = C1 0 1 100 100 100
Starting from the structure of the total costs by groups of expenses or the repartition of the costs by operative and auxiliary units, at the level of each commercial and public nourishment units, we establish the average relative level of the costs (N):
N=
C = ND D D
The dynamics of this average level is studied by factors of influence, by decomposing the index with variable structure (INSV) into an index of fix structure (INSf) which synthetizes the concern of the unit for the best administration of the resources and an index of the structure variation (INVS), which expresses the external influence of the demand restructuring on the market segment where the commercial company is acting. Since : N = IC : I D I SV The indicators of the economic and social efficiency of the domestic trade and public nourishment The covers of the expenses out of own incomes and the obtaining a net profit are representing the motivation for mobilizing funds for any investor, binding to each economic agent. In the field of the goods circulation, as a result of practicing different prices for buying and reselling the products, there are certain particularities occurring in setting up the indicators of results. Thus, from the difference between the value of the goods sales at retail prices and the value volume of buying goods for resell at wholesale prices it results the gross income of the company which, in
the structure of the price for each traded product, is found out in the form of the commercial extra (allowance). Since the purchase and resale of the goods do not coincide time wise, the above difference is not corrected with the sold of the movement of the own stocks of goods (Si Sf). The final production of the commerce and public nourishment is obtained by deducting the losses of goods from the global production, including the perishability. It is composed from the material expenses of the company (packing, fuel, inventory items, fix capital annuities etc.) and the net production which represents the newly created value (the net added value) from the field of goods circulation. The absolute volume of the profit (the benefit mass) is calculated at the company level by deducting from the commercial allowance all the costs of the activity according to the law in force. In order to be able to evaluate the proportions of the obtained profit, a series of derivate indicators are calculated by comparing the profit mass with the various quantifiable elements arising out of the company activity. Thus, the profit rate as against the volume of the goods sales (RP1) is expressing the extent to which the studied company can achieve profit for every 1000 lei sales.
RP1 =
P * 1000 D , where:
p =the benefit mass D = sales achieved during the period of reference Since the profit is a component part of the commercial allowance, along with the activity costs, a relative coordinating dimension can be also established, in the form of the ratio:
RP2 =
P *100 D
which is called the profit rate as against the costs of the commercial or public nourishment activity. The profitableness of the company can be evaluated also as against the main groups of expenses. Because of the fact that the labor force wage (FS) and the annuities (A) represent the preponderant part of the costs, in the economic practice it is often meat the indicator called the profit rate against the alive and past labor expenses as well.
RP3 =
P * 100 CS
The mode of valorizing the social capital (CS) can be expressed through the profit rate to the social capital which, in fact, is the rate of the commercial profit.
RP4 =
P * 100 CS
All these indicators can be calculated for auto-analysis purposes by each

economic agent and, at the macroeconomic level they are established on the basis of the annual fiscal statements of the commercial and public nourishment companies. Apart these indicators, at the level of each company there are also a series of relative proportions of intensity which can be calculated, expressing the degree of valorizing the human, material and financial resources through the activity run during the analyzed year. Thus, the efficiency of the labor force utilization can be characterized statistically through the average volume of the sales by a commercial worker (labor productivity), through the degree of utilization of the maximum available time for work but also through the annual average profit by a commercial worker. The degree of utilization of the technical and material basis can be underlined through the annual average sales per each square meter of commercial surface or through the revenues of the public nourishment activity per one place at table or through the annual average profit recorded per each physical unit of expressing the technical and material basis or the annual average profit for each 1000 lei fix means. Finally, the utilization of the own and drawn financial means can be analyzed through indicators such as: the necessary circulating means for each 1000 lei sales the average number of rotations of the circulating means over one year and, indirectly, the circulation speed of the goods The social efficiency or the quality of the domestic trade and public nourishment activity is statistically expressed through a series of relative proportions which are characterizing the level of attending the consumers. Among these indicators there are also the ones characterizing the offer structure by qualities and assortments, the degree of renewing of the offer (the weight of the new products in the total assortments), the absolute and relative proportion of the stocks from the commercial network, the average number of inhabitants per a commercial unit or per one square meter of attending surface, the average daily spent by the buyers for acquiring the goods, the average number of inhabitants/a commercial worker from the network of specialized shops on a certain group of products, the degree of informing the consumers (advertising expenses for each 1000 lei sales), the degree of technical endowment of the commercial network, the index of the territorial distribution of the commercial and public nourishment units network. References Anghelache C. (2011) Romnia 2011. Starea economic n malaxorul crizei, Editura Economic, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012
75
Diaconu, A., Gresoi, S.G. (2011) Agriculture impact on environment, ART ECO Review of Economic Studies and Research, Editura Artifex, Vol. 2/No.2/2011, pp. 57-60. Diaconu, A., Gresoi, S.G., Diaconu, Am. (2011) - Some Elements of Agriculture Development in the European Union, ART ECO Review of Economic Studies and Research, Editura Artifex, Vol. 2/No.4/2011, pp. 63-72. Dougherty, C. (2007) Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford University Press Fetcu (Stoica) E.A, (2006) -Analiza statistic a activitii de comer interior i alimentaie public, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Dezvoltarea economic durabil Management competitiv i eficien economic, Editura Artifex Bucureti, 2006 Fetcu (Stoica), E.A. (2010) Indicatori statistici de analiz a activitii de comer interior i alimentaie public, International Scientific Symposium The necessity for Romania's economical and social reform in the context of global crysis, Artifex University, May 2010, ISBN 978-973-7631-71-.8 Lilea, F.P.C. (2010) Analiza statistic a repartiiei regionale a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii n Romnia, Editura Ideea European, Bucureti Anghelache, G.V., Anghelache, C., Cruceru, D. (2011) International Trade of Romania in 2011, ART ECO Review of Economic Studies and Research, Editura Artifex, Vol. 2/No.4/2011, pp. 88-97
76
Conditional Probability and Econometric Models

Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Lecturer Andrei HREBENCIUC PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract The concept of conditional probability is fundamental because econometrics regression models are probabilistic. Here, we consider the conditional probabilities to a certain vector, which would be possible to define more generally to the standard deviation . Key words: conditional probability, econometrics, standard deviation JEL Classification: C60, C70
The concept of conditional probability is fundamental in econometrics since the regression models are stochastic. Here, we take into consideration conditional probabilities against a certain vector, which we might define more generally as against the square mean deviation. We place ourselves within the Hillbert space (L2) of integrating square variables referring to a distribution of the probability of reference: if z is some real variable belonging to this mass, then E( z2) < . We should remember that L2 is a standardized vectorial mass on R with a defined norm by || z || = [E(z2)]1/2. If z1 and z2 are two elements of this space, then we can write their product as E( z1 z2 ); these variables are considered as orthogonal in the sense of L2 if E( z1 z2 ) = 0. Moreover, we state that a series of numbers
zn within this space converges towards an aleatory z if || zn z || 0 when n + . This notion of orthogonal
and square mean convergence would farther allow us to use the notions of orthogonal projection and the best approximations in terms of the smallest squares. The usual requirement of rigorousness implies a careful distinction between the equality of the aleatory variable and the doubtless equality. Also, we can define the concept of conditional probability and enumerate its main properties, mainly as regards he notion of the best approximation in the spirit of the norm L2 and to appreciate the linear conditional probability as basis out of which the linear regression derives.
77
The conditional probability We shall insert the sample ( x1 ,..., xn ) generated depending on a series of sampling probabilities P . This interval acts as limits of the probability of reference and we consider aleatory variables defined on this space. These variables can be components xi of the series of studies or sub-vectors of I xi . The Hilbert space of reference is that of the aleatory variables which depend on the sample and are integrable as against P . Being rigorous, this interval depends on . We shall mention some properties of the conditional probabilities which we shall generalize to a vector ~ y defined in p . We shall consider the conditional z by the vector of a dimension p, defined by the probability of a vector ~ y given ~ relation:
All the aleatory vectors
~ y, ~ y (1) , ~ y ( 2 ) defined in p , as well as the
aleatory vectors ~ z,~ z (1) , ~ z ( 2) defined in q , have known properties (linearity, positivity, non-equality and satisfy the rule of the three perpendiculars The concept of conditional probability is a fundamental one because it allow us to formalize the temporal dependence within the stochastic processes. We may as well discuss about the conditional probability of an aleatory matrix, which allows us to define the variation matrix covariance of an aleatory ~ yi defined in p , conditioned on ~ z , as well as in the following square matrix p x p. The definition of the conditional probability can be interpreted as the orthogonality of ~ y E (~ y|~ z ) with all the functions ~ z . Also, we can show a theorem which characterizes the conditional probability in terms of orthogonal projections, for instance in terms of the best approximation in the sense of L2 norm. The linear conditional probability We have seen that the conditional probability E ( ~ y|~ z ) is the orthogonal ~ projection of the aleatory variable y in the sub-space of the square integrable functions of ~ z in the sense of the L2 norm. We shall focus on the particular z . We define the linear situation when we consider the linear functions of ~ ~ conditional probability of y by the orthogonal projection of ~ y on the sub-space
z , which we shall define through L*2( ~ z ). We know of the linear functions of ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ L* ( z ) L ( z ).
78
The following two situations which will be submitted are showing two simple cases in which we consider the projection of a scalar aleatory variable ~ y
z. on a constant and on a scalar aleatory variable ~ If ~ y is an aleatory variable, we wish to find out a constant a which
is the closest possible to ~ y in the sense of the L2 norm, a is the orthogonal projection of ~ y defined on the sub-space of L established by the constant 1. Out of this, it results: and, further on, z are aleatory variables, then the linear conditional probability If ~ y and ~
z of the form EL ( ~ y|~ z ) = ~ z (where a is a scalar), is of ~ y given ~

obtained by putting the orthogonality condition EL (( ~ y ~ z )~ z) = 0 . insert the linear regression coefficient, we deduce : The linear regression coefficient of the pair ( ~ z ) is defined by the y ,~ formula:
z are both scalar aleatory variables and, in order to When ~ y and ~
addition, we underline that | | =1 if, and if only, ~ y is already a related function
The coefficient is always defined within the interval [1. 1]. In
z . Moreover, if ~ z are independent, then of ~ y and ~

false). function: or
p = 0 (its reciprocal is
z are two independent vectors, respectively defined on If ~ y and ~
p and q , this means that in the case of the continuous distributions, we have the
(in order to simplify the noting, both marginal densities are noted by
f m arg , the
systematic utilization of the arguments moves away any ambiguity). A first consequence is that, for all the integrable square functions, h satisfies the relation:
79
In this case, we do not express a different independence notion but one of conditional independence. To mention only that ~ y (1) and ~ y () are independent on
~ z , given any two functions h1 and h2 defined on p .

References Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press
80
Model of Matrix-based Regression used in Economic Analyses

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Georgeta BARDAU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Ligia PRODAN PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University, Bucharest
Abstract The emergence of new patterns of conflict with globalization has led to the re-configuration of the security agreement and the emergence of a "new security paradigm" in recent years. Securing could still lead to neglect issues of governance and the creation (or re-creating) the state monopoly of force, becoming the main concern in situations of conflict, often through extraordinary measures leading to fracture and proliferation of conflicts rather than their closure.
Key words: linear, estimator, extension, covariance, condition

JEL Classification: C10, C18
The model relationship for this non-linear variant is the following:
and we imposed the assumptions: and
81
The first condition means that Z is the probability of yconditioned on Zand thus it cannot be altered without fundamentally altering the model nature. In many economic situations, the second condition can be generalized in two modes, first within a setting, making the conditional variation ui depending on the conditional variables zi (heteroscedasticity) and, secondly, within a ne-i.i.d., without assuming that the covariance between the rests would be zero. Within a general frame, this can be written as: where is a matrix which generally depends on Zand on the unknown parameters . In this model, the parameters of interest are and. Making the distinction between the case where is known up to a multiplicative factor and the case where is a function of unknown parameters, the usual approach of this class of models is of the form = 2V . First of all, if = 2V , where 2 is known andV is a symmetrical positive defined matrix, we can check whether the impartial linear estimator with the smallest dispersion solves the condition of minimum. This estimator is known as the estimator of the generalized smallest squares (GLS). The immediate extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem shows in particular that the dispersion of conditional on Z is 2 ( Z 'V 1 Z ) 1 and that it is the smallest of the impartial linear estimators. A simple interpretation of this estimator is obtained by realizing that V 1 can be factorized in V 1 = P ' P where P is irreversible. Assuming the relation ,we can easily verify
2 is MLE of , and that n q n that equals to MLE of 2 . n
Secondly, if is unknown and depends of a parametrical , then the approach consists of two stages: n of and ithus an estimator - We get a preliminary estimate of
of, replacing with n , n

. We estimate using the formula where V is replaced by n Under these conditions, we get the feasible generalized estimator of the smallest squares. This estimator is losing the properties of the small sample of the estimator GLS when V is known and studied from the asymptotic point of view. Further on, we shall focus, basically, on this study and, meantime, of the heteroscedasticity case and on the extension of the GLS estimators in the multivariate case.
82
We shall consider a model { X n , , Pn } and a function defined on X x x R ( k , R l ) with values in k . The function ( x i , , ) is assumed as inferable for all and. The interpretation is the following: if is fixed at a certain value, which generally will depend on , (), then the system is defining a function() of the parameters of interest and the function () defines a function of the disturbing parameters. The estimation of this last one is not a priority but approaching them is necessary in order to analyze the parameters of interest. It is noticeable that in the specific situation we are examining, the system contains more unknowns then equations and, thus, it cannot be used alone for estimating () and(). Then, we analyze this issue for two situations: The first case is defined by the assumption that the value of is known. Generally speaking, this value depends onand then we assume that equals to (). Here, can be analyzed by using the known methods. We have a simple system of momentum equations which, in the context of the common conditions of ~ regularity, leads to the n ( ( )) , given as solution of the function:
The second case more relevant is that where () is unknown but we n which converges towards (). We solve have an available estimator the sy stem:
out of which we get the estimator n . Then, it is normal to ask whether n keeps the same asymptotic properties as n ( ( )) and, particularly, whether the asymptotic variation of the estimator is the same when () is known or when() is estimated. The answer is negative but the following theorem provides a simple criterion according to which both asymptotic distributions are equal. n ( )) has a n converges to () and that n ( Lets assume that limit of distribution. If the common conditions of regularity are satisfied, then ~ n converges to (). If the condition:
is asymptotic distribution previous relations.
also
satisfied,
then
the
( )) is the same as the one submitted by the n ( n
83
The third term of the equality tends towards zero and we see that the solutions we get out of:
i . are close arbitrarily and converge towards the same limit (). References Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C., Dumbrav, M. i alii (2007) Econometrie Teorie i studii de caz, Editura ARTIFEX, Bucureti Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Bardsen, G., Nymagen, R., Jansen, E. (2005) The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling, Oxford University Press Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition, Oxford University Press Gourieroux, C., Jasiak, J. (2001) Financial econometrics: problems, models and methods, Princeton University Press, Princeton Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti Thomas, R.L. (1997) Modern econometrics an introduction, Editura Financial Times Prentice Hall Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press
84
Performance Management or Performance Based Management?

Lecturer Ph.D. Cristina PROTOPOPESCU Artifex University of Bucharest Abstract In this paper we present some considerations about performance and performance management. Starting with the challenge of defining the performance concept, we intend to establish if performance management can be a new management system or it is just a sophisticated term for a HR strategy in order to improve the performance of teams and individuals. We also try to discuss the conection between performance management and management by objectives. Whether or not it is exageratted to talk about a performance management, giving the fact that management means a lot of planning, organizing, coordination, people motivating and controling processes, its obvious that the performance concept become very important today. Key words: performance, performance management, management by objectives JEL Classification: L25, L26
One of the most frequently used concepts in the economic theory and practice, perfomance appears to have different meanings. On a general basis, performance means a special accomplishment in a certain field or domain. From a technical point of view, the performance represents the best results of a technical system or a machine. Therefore we reach performance not in the circumstances of an ordinary result, by in a special one. In the economic field, performance means a certain level of the best results obtained by the company1. Also performance can be defined as a special result obtained in management, economic or comercial domain, which gives organization and its components competitiveness, efficiency and efficacy2. We can measure performance by using a series of economic and financial indicators which we compare with the firms acchivements in the past or companys objectives or with the results of similar companies on the market.
Constantin Barbulescu, Constantin Bagu Managementul productiei, vol. II Politici manageriale de productie, Tribuna Economica, Bucuresti, 2001, pg. 55 2 Ion Verboncu, Michael Zalman Management si performante, Editura Universitara, Bucuresti, 2005, pg. 64 Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment 85
1
The performance concept gained more and more importance for companies and their management under the pressure of competitiveness in the market place. Therefore the next step was the performance management emergence. Performance management is a part of the new human resources management approaches and gives companies the posibility to create a new organizational culture. In this culture, each employee understands his role within the company and the way his performance affects the companys objectives and performances. Its very useful to remember that nowadays competitiveness in many industries is based on the effectiveness of human resources became assets. The competitiveness and profitability are brought by the ability of employee to create, to accumulate knowledge and to properly apply their skills within an organizational culture based on individual performance. For managers and shareholders too it is important to recognize that creativity and human capital are sources for long-term competitive advantage3. Performance management is an useful tool for increasing labor yield, individual performance and reducing general administration costs. According to Michael Armstrong, performance management can be defined as a systematic process for improving organizational performance by developing the performance of individual and teams4. This author sees performance management as an instrument for getting better results from the organization, teams and individuals by understanding and managing performance within an agreed framework of planned goals, standards and competence requirements. The most important direction that must be followed in order to increase individual performance is given by objectives. Richard Luecke and Brian J. Hall consider that performance management begins with goals5 which are the results that people should aim to achieve. These two authors consider that every company, every operating unit and every employee needs goals and plans for achieving them. In fact, setting goals and sharing them within the company is one of the essential functions of management planning. This idea isnt new in management theory and practice. We must say that one of the most important management instrument management by objectives (MBO) is based upon the same premises6. At this level we ask if is there any difference between performance management and management by objectives or is it the same idea only with different names?
Anca Mihaela Teau Tehnici de vanzare, Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, 2009, pg. 40 4 Michael Armstrong Performance Management: Key Strategies and Practical Guidelines, Kogan Page Limited, London, 2006 5 Richard Luecke, Brian J. Hall Performance Management. Measure and Improve the Effectiveness of Your Employees, Harvard Business School, Boston, 2006 6 Dan Nastase Management comercial, Editura Axioma Print, Bucuresti, 2010, pg. 80 86 Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment
In my opinion, performance management as it is applied today, benefits a lot from older management instruments such as management by objectives7. It started rather as a philosophy than as a management tool, but gradually it has transformed in an instrument focused on aligning the individual goals with the goals of the organization and ensures that the employees work on the right tasks and do the right things. Having in mind that management means a lot of planning, organizing, coordination, people motivating and controling processes, we consider that performance management isnt the proper name and it would be better to use the term performance based management. Performance based management can be regarded as a proactive system of managing employee performance for driving the individuals and the organizations towards desired performance and results. In the theory and practice management, the performance based management system is still evolving and includes the following components8: 1. Performance Planning. Performance planning is the first component of any performance management process which forms the basis of performance appraisals. Performance planning is jointly done by managers and employees in the beginning of a performance session. As in MBOs case, the planning process must developed throught a large implication of managers, employees, HR specialists and other stakeholders. During this period, the employees decide upon the targets and the key performance areas which can be performed over a year within the performance budget and following the entire objectives system. Also at this level it is important to establish the motivation forms and rewarding. 2. Performance Appraisal and Reviewing: The appraisals are normally performed twice in a year in an organization in the form of mid reviews and annual reviews which is held in the end of the financial year. In this process, the appraisee first offers the self filled up ratings in the self appraisal form and also describes his/her achievements over a period of time in quantifiable terms. After the self appraisal, the final ratings are provided by the appraiser for the quantifiable and measurable achievements of the employee being appraised. The entire process of review seeks an active participation of both the employee and the appraiser for analyzing the causes of loopholes in the performance and how it can be overcome. 3. Feedback on the Performance followed by personal counseling and performance facilitation: Feedback and counseling are given a lot of importance in the performance management process. This is the stage in
7
Sorin Gabriel Gresoi Managementul si gestiunea calitatii, Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, 2011, pg. 130 8 Source: www.managementstudyguide.com Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment 87
which the employee acquires awareness from the appraiser about the areas of improvements and also information on whether the employee is contributing the expected levels of performance or not. The employee receives an open and a very transparent feedback and along with this the training and development needs of the employee is also identified. The appraiser adopts all the possible steps to ensure that the employee meets the expected outcomes for an organization through effective personal counseling and guidance, mentoring and representing the employee in training programmes which develop the competencies and improve the overall productivity. 4. Rewarding good performance: This is a very vital component as it will determine the work motivation of an employee. During this stage, an employee is publicly recognized for good performance and is rewarded. This stage is very sensitive for an employee as this may have a direct influence on the self esteem and achievement orientation. Any contributions duly recognized by an organization helps an employee in coping up with the failures successfully and satisfies the need for affection. 5. Performance Improvement Plans: In this stage, fresh set of goals are established for an employee and new deadline is provided for accomplishing those objectives. The employee is clearly communicated about the areas in which the employee is expected to improve and a stipulated deadline is also assigned within which the employee must show this improvement. This plan is jointly developed by the appraisee and the appraiser and is mutually approved. 6. Potential Appraisal: Potential appraisal forms a basis for both lateral and vertical movement of employees. By implementing competency mapping and various assessment techniques, potential appraisal is performed. Potential appraisal provides crucial inputs for succession planning and job rotation. Conclusion Performance based management brings a lot of benefits for companies and also for managers and employees. We can say that all major stakeholders benefit from it. At the companys level performance based management has the following advantages: - Improved organizational performance due to the fact that employees understand the importance of their contributions to the organizational goals and objectives - Improved productivity and costs reduction - Benefits from a new organizational culture based on performance, employee retention and loyalty
88
For managers, we talk about saving time and a better organizational climate as a consequnce of reducing conflicts. For employees the benefits are: Regularly providing open and transparent job feedbacks to the employees. Establishing a clear linkage between performance and compensation Providing ample learning and development opportunities by representing the employees in leadership development programmes, etc. Evaluating performance and distributing incentives and rewards on a fair and equated basis. Establishing clear performance objectives by facilitating an open communication and a joint dialogue. Recognizing and rewarding good performance in an organization. Providing maximum opportunities for career growth. References Michael Armstrong Performance management: Key Strategies and Practical Guidelines, Kogan Page Limited, London, 2006 Constantin Barbulescu, Constantin Bagu Managementul productiei, vol. II Politici manageriale de productie, Tribuna Economica, Bucuresti, 2001 Sorin Gabriel Gresoi Managementul si gestiunea calitatii, Editura ProUniversitaria, 2011 Richard Luecke, Brian J. Hall Performance Management. Measure and Improve the Effectiveness of Your Employees, Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation, Boston, 2006 Dan Nastase Management comercial, Editura Axioma Print, Bucuresti, 2010 Anca Mihaela Teau Tehnici de vanzare, Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, 2009
Ion Verboncu, Michael Zalman Management si performante, Editura Universitara, Bucuresti, 2005 www.managementstudyguide.com
89
Conflicts Management in Constructions Projects

Associate Professor Cibela NEAGU, PhD ARTIFEX University of Bucharest Associate Professor Cezar BRAICU, PhD Spiru Haret University of Bucharest Abstract Conflicts are inevitable within organisations and construction projects are not excepted. The large number of persons involved and the interdependent relations sometimes inevitably result in conflicts. There are very different and sometimes hidden reasons of the conflicts. Nevertheless, conflicts may represent a chance in running the project, as they contribute both to new developments and to clarifying problems and positions of the team personnel. Besides, its the project leading team that is in charge with surveying conflicts to try to find the best solutions in the early phase of the conflict. The project manager must induce the team to create an appropriate working climate characterized by no tensions within. In order to practice a performing conflicts management, the project manager must have social competency and communication skills. The quality of the project outcomes, the degree of personnel involvement and motivation highly depend both on means of communication and level of information inside the team. This work paper highlights the main types of conflicts which develop in construction projects and the most important strategies for settlement. Key words: conflicts, project team, manager, strategy, organization JEL Classification: O15, J53
1. Causes of conflicts The specific elements these projects have complexity, interdisciplinary, newness as well the activity in itself presuppose a correlation of all the activities
90
and decisions within the project. The number of individuals working on such a project as well as the relations between them generates conflicts. The conflicts are, within certain limits normal and necessary in a project and, they measure the quality of work in a project and help finding new solutions, new organizational ways clarify the problematic aspects and finally create a good working environment. The lack of conflicts, which means to avoid direct confrontation, may be a clue for the work team to postpone solving such conflicts. Thus, the duty of the management of the team involved in the project is to control conflicts and to try to solve them as they appear. The causes that generate conflicts are various and sometimes hidden. The objective causes mingle with individual judgement and feelings. Among the main causes that generate conflicts in this field are: - the ambiguities in the contractual documents; - the attitude of the contractors and beneficiaries; - different attitudes towards what is right in a private enterprise contract. The ambiguities in the private enterprise contracts and the way they are interpreted represent one of the most frequent cause that generates conflicts. The competition to win action is sometimes very hard and the parties are very aggressive. The attitude of the contracting parties and beneficiaries is a source of conflicts. The activity in constructions is characterized by a high degree of risk and implies fast decisions concerning the expenses, coordination of the subcontracting parties with different levels of competence and the setting up of a viable relation between the supplier and the beneficiary. That is why this environment attracts participants with an aggressive attitude and highly competitive. The attitudes are different when it comes to what is right in a private enterprise contract. 2. Types of conflicts Apparently, setting up a project team does not seem to be very problematic. Due to the general opinion, everything depends on the qualification of the individuals working in a team. But the diversity that exists among project teams makes things more complicated. They have their own character, limited in time, and their target is unique and specific due to the project. A careful attention should be paid to solving the conflicts within the team. The individuals do not reach immediately an agreement because they have different attitudes and expectations. Usually this type of conflict is generated by the fact that each member of the team wants the best for the team. The conflicts may appear: - within the project team; - between the project team and the managers of different departments within the company;
- between the teams of different projects; - between the team and high level management; - between the team and the beneficiary, suppliers or consultants, etc. Taking into consideration the order the conflicts appear, we can talk about the following types of conflicts: - conflicts related to non-compliance with the dead lines; - priority conflicts; - conflicts related to ensuring the necessary personnel; - conflicts related to technical factors; - conflicts related to personnel management; - conflicts generated by different types of personality; - conflicts related to expenses. The sources of conflicts can weight differently, depending on the stage the project is in. Where the project is at organizational stage, the conflicts that may appear are related to project management and setting the priorities. In the last stage of the project there are conflicts related to deadlines and priorities, while during the project, the conflicts generated by technical aspects are more frequent. The conflicts are not easy to mange, but it is a necessity to solve them. The most important tool to deal with conflicts is communication. The way people communicate and the way the involved personnel is informed, influences the quality of the results and the motivation. 3. Strategies regarding conflicts management. In practice, there are mentioned several strategies that help solving the conflicts in this field. In order to solve a conflict we must acknowledge its existence. The specialists are talking about the following stages: - to define the problem, talking into consideration the requests the parties involved have and not the possible solutions; - to select the best solution that meets the needs of the parties involved in a conflict and to verify the order of the possible measures; - to name the person, the time and the deadline to implement the necessary measures; - to implement the measures; - to evaluate the effectiveness of the solution. There is no general strategy to solve a conflict. Each type of conflict has its solution. Knneth Thomas identified five possible strategies that can be used to solve a conflict: a) Competitive approach; b) Collaborative approach; c) To compromise;
d) To adapt; e) To avoid. Kenneth Thomas also established the circumstances each strategy can be used. a) Competitive approach. This strategy gives priority to the objectives, facts or procedures, because the conflict parties act in order to reach their own aims, using rather often authoritative structures. Thus, some specialists think this strategy is power oriented, because they use any type of authority to obtain a fit position. This approach can be used in the following situation: - when it is recommended a rapid and decisive intervention; - when it concerns the individuals that have a passive attitude; - when we need to adopt some unpopular measures in order to solve important problems; - when we need to solve some vital problems for the welfare of the company and the next measure to be implemented is definitely the right one. b) Collaborative approach. This strategy is meant to maintain the interpersonal relations between parties and to make sure the objectives are met. This approach takes into consideration the fact that the individuals do not act only in their own interest but also considering the other party. In other words, the parties agree to communicate in order to solve the conflict. This strategy can be used: - when the main objective is to learn and get experience; - when we are looking for solutions to the problems that cannot be solved by compromising; - when we need to develop a general strategy when the parties have different opinions; - when the feelings interfered with the pre-established human relations; - when we want to raise the commitment of the parties by consensus. c) To compromise. Compromise means to analyse the conflicts and to reach an agreement that fits both parties. This strategy aims to find a solution that satisfies both parties. We can use this strategy: - when the objectives are important but do not justify the gaps created by adopting severe measures; - when the parties in the conflicts have equal power to negotiate; - when we want to make a temporary agreement concerning a very complex problem;
93
when we cannot use the competitive strategy or the collaborative one.
d) To adapt. The parties involved in a conflict do not act in order to impose their own point of view but to meet the other individuals needs. It implies to maintain the inter-personal relations without taking into consideration the personal objectives of the parties. This strategy can be used: - when we want stability; - when one of the parties committed a mistake in order to obtain position to continue negotiating; - when the other party considers the problem to be more important than it is to maintain collaboration; - when we want be credible towards third parties; - when we want our employees to learn from mistakes. e) To avoid. Although the parties acknowledge the existence of a conflict, they do not want to confront themselves. Thus, the problems are postponed, but in time they become more and more serious. This strategy can be used: - when the problem is less important; - when the requirements of a party cannot be met; - when the parties have to re analyse more objectively the problem; - when gathering and analysing information is more important than taking a immediate decision; - when there are other persons that can solve more effectively the conflict. When solving a conflict, we have to consider everybodys best interests and we have to be sure that this is the best solution for them. There is no need to impose a solution not even when we are convinced that this solution fits everybody. That is why conflicts management is very important in a project. 4. The managers role in solving the conflicts. The manager of a project should communicate with all the persons involved and try together with the team of the persons involved and try together with the team to find a solution. He has to make sure the conflict ends as soon as possible in order to avoid a worse situation. The discussions will be strictly between those involved, without third parties. The manager is not allowed to have a party that wins and one that is defeated. All the parties should have a positive feeling when the conflict ends and the results must be acceptable and constructive. References Constantinescu D.A. Managementul proiectelor, Ed. Semne94, Bucureti, 2001
Dijmrescu I. Managementul proiectelor, Academia Romn de Management, 1997 Harris, F., Mc. Caffer, R. Modern Construction Management, John Wiley and Sons, 1983 Hiltrop, J.M., Udall, S. Arta negocierii, Teora, Bucureti, 1998 Laundon, K.C., Laundon, J.P. Management information systems, Macmillan, New York, 1991 Mocanu, M., Schuster, C. Managementul proiectelor, Ed. All Beck, Bucureti, 2004 Neagu, Cibela Managementul proiectelor, Ed. Tritonic, Bucuresti, 2008 Phil Baugules Project Management, Transet Limited, England, 1999 Postavaru, N. Managementul proiectelor, Matrix Rom, Bucureti, 1999 Radu, V., Curteanu, D. Managementul proiectelor, Ed. All Beck, Bucureti, 2004
95
The Economy of Romania during the Period 20002012

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Vergil VOINEAGU PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Diana Valentina SOARE PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Daniel DUMITRESCU PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Abstract A key element in economic stability analysis is the consumer price developments in the national economy. In 2000, it had a very high rate and objective successive governments during that period was represented by undertaking measures to ensure stability and evolution influenced by economic measures aimed at consumer prices. Key words: economic, stability, analyisis, evolution JEL Classification: E20, E30
The evolution of the consumption prices An essential element in analyzing the economic stability is given by the evolution of the consumption prices in the frame of a national economy1. In the year 2000, this recorded a very high rhythm and the targets of the governments which succeeded one another during the respective period has been represented by taking those steps meant to secure the stability and an evolution influenced by the economic steps aiming the consumption prices. In this respect, the complex of macroeconomic steps taken into account by each executive aimed with priority the achievement of inflation meant to lead to the launching of the entire economic activity. For instance,in the year 2001, the increasing rate of the inflation (of the population consumption prices) counted as 30.3% as comparatively with the year 2000. As a result of the macroeconomic policies and of the general overall evolution in 2002 the inflation rate reached the level of 17.8%, in 2003 of 14.1%, in 2004 of 9.3%, while in 2005 it reached 8.6%
1
Biji, M., Lilea, E., Roca, E., Vtui, M. (2010) - Statistica pentru economiti Editura Economic, Bucureti Pineda, J., Rodrguez, F. (2010) Curse or Blessing? Natural Resources and Human Development, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
96
and 4.9% in 2006. The year 2007, the first one after the adhesion, has been difficult enough, being the first year in which the inflation rate of increase started to increase, leveling up to 6.6% as against 2006 , in 2008 to 6.3% as comparatively with 2007. Starting with the year 2009, until 2011 (ten months), the inflation rate oscillated around the level of 4.5 percentage points per year. Of course, the biggest weight in the inflation rate diminishing, from one period to another, is due to the macroeconomic strategy of development but, under certain circumstances, the reduction of the inflation has been based on the effect of some administrative steps as well, taken by the executive. Normally, an evolution close to the economy and the forecasted strategy for the evolution of the consumption prices has been obtained and this has been reflected in the power given by the comparison of the increase rhythms of various indices (GDP, wages level, labor force occupation etc.) For the period up to 2003, the analysis of the consumption prices has been relevant as well through the prism of their comparison with the evolution of the exchange rate of the national currency. Through complex measures, economic and those administrated by the National Bank, starting with the year 2001, he evolution of the consumption prices as a form to measure the inflation, followed up a somehow predictable course. To keep in mind the fact that, after the denomination of the leu, in 2004, a total separation occurs between the evolution of the consumption prices index and the evolution of the exchange rate of the national currency. In this context, we take into consideration that the Romanian leu, as a necessary and vital step meant to secure an efficient process of denomination, followed a course of appreciation and, thus, the confidence of the population in the national currency has been regained, the speculative effects of the foreign exchange and of the preoccupations of those holding foreign currency (euro or USD) have disappeared etc. This evolution concerning the consolidation of the Romanian leu is beneficial for the post-denomination development. On the other hand, the inflation kept on being generated by the evolution of the administrated prices, those which compulsory must be maintained after the adhesion to the European Union as well. If we proceed to analyze the evolution of the consumption prices over the entire period, we shall state out that the administrated prices, with an increased effect during the last period of time, had a major influence on the inflation evolution. The other prices on the market, for alimentary and non-alimentary goods and for services have been theoretically reasonable, being generated by the conditions of the free market and, also, by the balance between the offer and the financial resources available with the population. When talking about the financial resources available with the population we have in mind, mainly,, the controlled resources since, depending on the methods utilized for estimating the foreign currency reserves (euro,, USD and the other foreign currencies) on the uncontrolled market, we can conclude that they are big enough. Thus, for instance, they are estimated to exceed 2 billion of euro in2. In the context, we can point out
2
www.insse.ro, www.eurostat.eu
97
that during the period 2009-2011, the inflation exceeded the forecasted level and it is to anticipate that during the forthcoming period, the need to administrate the prices of a series of products belonging to the range of those for which we have to line up with the level of the European market, has however a negative effect. The indices of the consumption price during the period 2001-2012 - December previous year = 100 -
*) Estimated data. Data source:National Institute of Statistics Consequently, it is probable that the inflation evolution will be slightly superior to the forecasted levels. In the same sense, we can expect a development after the adhesion to the European Union as well, when certain general European policies may imply an effect of increasing for certain prices. The evolution of the industry and production prices The industry represented and keeps on representing a basic branch of the national economy 3. It recorded a growth rhythm somehow steady in the sense that the restructuring process in the extractive industry, the manufacturing one and the field of electric energy production followed up the same course. The industry has been restructured, a number of energo- consuming enterprises, huge consumers of raw materials, materials and energy, with low profitability, disappeared. Meantime, the state owned commercial companies and the autonomous administrations having no perspectives have been abandoned or closed up, given the competition in the free market of the European Union, after the adhesion. On this ground, we can talk about an increase of the sectors efficiency4 which are still running the activity in industry, a phenomenon accompanied by the raise of the unemployment, since the production of services and the development of the SME-s could not secure the absorption of the labor force dismissed in the industrial branch of the national economy. The weight of certain branches kept increasing their weight, such as: the alimentary production of beverage, the wood manufacturing and wooden products, polygraphy, the reproduction of supports of
3 Anghelache C., Isaic-Maniu AL., Mitru C., Voineagu V. (2011) - Sistemul conturilor naionale: sinteze i studii de caz, Editura Economic, Bucureti 4 Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews
98
the recordings, oil processing, the coal processing to coke and the treatment of the nuclear fuels, the construction of road transportation means, furniture and other industrial activities, which became domains where a series of commercial companies followed up the modern program of achievement, hold an updated technology (not to say an advanced one) and work with an adequate productivity, fit to the economy of our country. The prices of the industrial production followed up a moderate course, as shown by the diagram below. Romania carried on a large amount of lohn production activity in the field of ready-made clothes, textiles, clothing articles, leather goods etc., which, at the end of the day proved to lack efficiency and, normally, gradually, this activity started to reduce it weight in the frame of the macroeconomic activity. We might, eventually, discuss, as a negative element, the fact that, today, the Romanian industry is not enough prepared to impose, within the concert of the European Union after the adhesion, a number of products marked Made in Romania. As a matter of fact, according to the Agreement and Protocols signed with the member countries of the European Union, it is to anticipate that during the following years, a series of industrial activities will have to be modernized as, contrary, there is the risk of getting them ceased. Indices of the industrial production gross series
Data sources: National Institute of statistics In this frame of the analysis, we should underline the fact that the economy of Romania must clearly grow, through compelling its recognition on the European market for certain goods bearing the seal of the results which it is in the position to acquire. The evolution of the agriculture The agriculture of Romania, both the vegetal and animal sector, developed in an oscillatory manner, depending on the natural conditions (meteorological). This is due to the fact that, according to the Low no. 18, the arable surface of the country has been broken down, I would say now without discernment, and due to this situation, there are few possibilities for an actual laboring of the agricultural terrains.
The qualitative degradation of the agricultural production of our country kept on going on, as a result of the utilization in an unconvincing rhythm of the fertilizers, herbicide, insecticides, fungicides etc. as well as to the laboring of the entire potential agricultural surface by classical agro technical methods. Other negative elements stated out over the entire period are given by the fact that agriculture of Romania developed based on a non-scientific process, starting from the inappropriate (there are only the surfaces over 200 hectares which can be labored in convenient conditions), the collapse and vanishing of companies specialized in the agriculture mechanization as well as the difficulties to labor the small surfaces by mechanized means and, the last but not the least, the diminishing of the irrigations which secured uniform conditions over the entire year and, moreover, the collapse of the utilization of the crops rotation. From this point of view, the agriculture production of agriculture goods and services, the vegetal and animal production recorded somehow sinuous courses. If, in the case of the livestock, we state out a positive evolution but only after a strong reduction of its level during the first 12 years before the analyzed period, so that we consider that a stabilized level has been reached, which is adequate to the Romania requirements. The agricultural productions of goods and services in the vegetal production followed up positive courses in a way or another. Indices of the production of the agriculture branch (2000=100)
*)
Provisional data. **) Partial data Data source: National Institute of Statistics
There is a single positive element within this evolution, in the sense that by the natural mode to carry on the agricultural activities, we secured, volensnolens, an ecological process of the agriculture production , which can be positive in the perspective of steps to be taken in order to reach the possibility of utilizing the advanced agro technical methods. The vegetal production recorded different evolutions, with growths from one period to another, influenced by the effects of the natural conditions5.
5
Anghelache C. (2011) Romnia 2011. Starea economic n malaxorul crizei, Editura Economic, Bucureti
100
In the year 2005, when 622.000 hectares have been damaged by the floods, the productions decreased for all the categories, being smaller as comparatively with the year 2004. During the period 2006-2011 also, larger surfaces of terrains have been drawn out of the productive circuit due to floods. Vegetal production Thousand tons
Indicators Cereals grain Potatoes Sun flower Soya beans Vegetables Fruit Grapes
*)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Provisional data**)Partial data Data source: National Institute of Statistics We have to underline that Romania needs and has to pay certain efforts in order to be able to secure an up warding rhythm to the evolution of the agriculture which, whether we like it or not, must remain, due to the natural conditions as well, a significant branch of the national economy. Meantime, the livestock effectives, the three main categories, bovines, porcinis, sheep, recorded a course somehow stable, with growths during the last two years, mainly as far as the porcinis and sheep are concerned which, I believe, secure part of the conditions required for the Romanian economy carrying on. Livestock effectives during the period 2004-2012 (thousand heads)
14.357 12.964 24.403 19.345 15.352 7.784 7.314 7.614 4.078 3.947 4.230 3.739 4.251 3.538 4.120 3.915 1.003 1.506 1.558 1.341 1.605 535 635 580 146 225 299 313 330 104 215 204 3.973 4.685 4.774 3.625 4.520 2.687 3.150 2.900 952 2.089 1.744 1.647 1.312 995 1.340 1.051 1.077 1.078 1.230 506 948 826 914 870
2010 2011* 2012* * 7.960 8.960 6915 4.014 4.975 2926 610 687 475 197 206 102 2.987 3.125 2549 1.275 1.360 985 906 909 840
Provisional databy June 30th, 2012 Data source: National Institute of Statistics
*)
101
Investment and constructions From the year 2000 up to the year 2008, the investment recorded an up warding course, with growths of over 9% de from one year to another. From the year 2009, the investment and the production marked a down warding course, with very large decreases in 2010 and 2011. So, for instance, in the year 2001 an increase of 9% has been recorded in the field of investments and constructions, r6, while during the following years until the year 2008, this rhythm of growth kept on being approximately similar.After the year 2009, we faced very large reductions. From the point of view of dwellings also, we state out an increase in the sense that, from one year to another, their number increased as absolute figures, until 2008, afterword the decline of the investments getting set up. The year 2006 represents the year when, through the 1,540 dwellings for the victims of the disaster, the increase has been by far superior as against the previous years. The same rhythm is recorded in respect of the achievement of engineering constructions, residential buildings, dwellings under execution etc., where there are steady but certain increases. The investments came, for their majority, from integrally private funds, a master role being played, during the last two years, by the possibility of civil constructions, including dwellings based on credits, which have been more easily granted and which, by this mortgage might mean an advantage during the periods to come. Number of finalized dwellings 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*) 30127 32868 38178 45867 64348 62520 54045
Number of the finalized dwellings total Out of which: - for victims of 0 1497 1898 1339 1251 72 disasters - from integrally 25160 27527 33409 42320 61210 62448 private funds *) Provisional data Data source: National Institute of Statistics
114 53981
Investments have been made in respect of the achievement of new constructions, the purchasing of equipment and transportation means or the repair and modernization of the present fix means, already existing.
Voineagu,V. (2007) Economic And Social Evolution Of Romania During 1.I-28.II.2007 Period, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume (Year): 06 (511) (supplement) (2007), Issue (Month): 07(511)(supplement) (June)
102
The evolution of the construction works 2001-2012 (previous year = 100)
*)
Provisional data Data source: National Institute of Statistics
From the point of view of the structure by destinations of the investments in industry, they have been directed to the replacement of the old equipment, the increase of the production capacity, the modernization of technologies, the environment protection, the labor protection and other sectors which required investments. Of course, the investments for the environment protection and the technologies modernization should increase, along with those meant to the labor protection where the provisions of the Labor Code as well as, mainly, the requirements arising from the adhesion documents, must be implemented. Investments-Constructions (percentages as against the previous year)
Data source: National Institute of Statistics
103
Certainly, the economic agents have focused their efforts merely towards the increase of the production capacities and the replacement of the old equipment but, from the point of view of the harmonization with the European Union requirements, significant amounts should be allocated, mainly for the environment and labor protection. Out of a preliminary study it is resulting that in the frame of the privatization contracts of certain companies and autonomous administrations, the investment plans and obligations for the environment protection field are not in accordance with those being agreed upon. From this point of view, the environment is affected and its consequences on the general natural situation will generate particular effects. Nothing to do but to watch the way the putting into practice of the whole program concerning the environment protection, drawn up by the present government team is achieved. To see also that the imports of capital goods have been focused on these structural elements of the investments and that they counted for about 16.97% of the total imports, which is a positive fact. References Anghelache C. (2011) Romnia 2011. Starea economic n malaxorul crizei, Editura Economic, Bucureti Anghelache C., Isaic-Maniu AL., Mitru C., Voineagu V. (2011) - Sistemul conturilor naionale: sinteze i studii de caz, Editura Economic, Bucureti Biji, M., Lilea, E., Roca, E., Vtui, M. (2010) - Statistica pentru economiti Editura Economic, Bucureti Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews Pineda, J., Rodrguez, F. (2010) Curse or Blessing? Natural Resources and Human Development, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Voineagu,V. (2007) Economic And Social Evolution Of Romania During 1.I28.II.2007 Period, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume (Year): 06 (511) (supplement) (2007), Issue (Month): 07(511)(supplement) (June) www.insse.ro, www.eurostat.eu
104
The Company Overall Performance Accounting and Some Statistical Management Tools
Assistant Marian AICU, PhD student taicumarian@yahoo.com Associate Professor Gheorghe SVOIU PhD gsavoiu@yahoo.com Master student ec. Malvina FLOREA malvinaflorea@yahoo.com University of Piteti, Faculty of Economic Sciences Abstract Starting with the last two decades of the 20th century, the financial models for the assessment of the company results began to be increasingly criticized, as it was deemed that they did not reflect its overall performance. The company must obtain performance not only at the economic and financial level but also at the social and environmental level. For a sustainable development, the new economy must be rethought from a social and ecologic perspective. Economic sciences must evolve in order to provide answers to environmental issues that are increasingly intense. The paper presents the possibilities of the accounting and statistics to become genuine company overall performance management tools. Key words: performance, social accounting, environmental accounting, statistics, management JEL Classification: M40, M41, C40.
The notion of performance has a multitude of usages despite the fact that this concept is sporadically defined in specialty works. We consider that the notion of performance is highly complex and it is currently searching for a way to rediscover itself, in order to cease being mistaken for the indicators used to describe and measure it. Company performance is assessed differently by the stakeholders of the company, based on their divers and often divergent interests. We can study performance from the perspective of each category of users of accounting information: shareholders, managers, employees, creditors, state, business partners, mass media and the public. The concept of overall performance of the company is based on stakeholder theory.
We believe that in order to maximize the company's value, managers must take into account the interests of the social partners.. Amid limited resources and deepening social problems, social responsibility has become or will be made a growing priority of all businesses, regardless of size and scope of activity. Gray et al (1988) published the first paper where accountability and the social contract were investigated as part of a theory for corporate social reporting (CSR). In additional to the traditional measurement of performance through profit (economic performance), companies should also take into account social performance (to act in a socially responsible manner) and environmental performance (to minimize the impact on the environment). These three aspects are perfectly integrated in the triple bottom line concept which was first coined in 1994 by John Elkington. Elkington is the founder of a British consultancy called SustainAbility (http://www.sustainability.com). He supported the idea that companies should be preparing three different bottom lines: the first is the traditional measure of corporate profit - the bottom line of the profit and loss account; the second is the bottom line of a companys people account- a measure in some shape or form of how socially responsible an organization has been throughout its operations; the third is the bottom line of the companys planet account - a measure of how environmentally responsible it has been. Thus, the triple bottom line (TBL) consists of three Ps: profit, people and planet and it aims to measure the financial, social and environmental performance of the company over a period of time. 1. Accounting overall performance management tool In our opinion performance measurement is a prerequisite for the development of an enterprise, but it is not sufficient and should be one of the performance management tools. In the literature, many authors prefer to talk about a performance management system rather than about a performance measurement system, which is also emphasized by E. Lardenoije et. al (2005) 1. Traditionally, according to the dualistic concept, the current in-house accounting system has two major components: financial accounting and management accounting. Unlike financial accounting, management accounting is not regulated at national level, because it does not meet external requirements. On the other hand, large enterprises create their strict and detailed procedures on the organization of the management accounting, taking into account the specificity of the activity and the internal information needs. Management accounting information is dedicated to the company management only, it is not published outside the company and is confidential. In the literature, management accounting is defined as a system by which
1
Lardenoije, E., van Raaij, E., van Weele, A. Performance Management Models and Purchasing: Relevance Still Lost, Researches in Purchasing and Supply Management, the 14th IPSERA Conference, 2005, pp. 687-697
106
the value of the internal company flows is calculated and analysed. It must be adapted to the activity, to the functional structure of the company and to the requirements of the decision-makers in relation to the evolutions of the economic and technological environment2. The emergence of management accounting was a consequence of the increase in industrial organizations. Management accounting was developed mainly in the U.S.A., its evolution being favoured by factors such as the shift from the payment per unit to fixed wages, from simple operations to multiple operations, from individual business to integrated business. After World War I a number of companies such as Du Pont and General Motors started applying budgeting and used techniques such as standard cost, deviation analysis, ROI (return on investment). Brabete et all (2011)3 believe that although price cost calculation is traditionally considered an objective specific to management accountancy, however, we don't have to make a strict delimitation between the roles of the two components of the national accounting system regarding the determination of this important indicator. In the authors opinion, currently, accounting experiences a new phase in its evolution, in which it must meet the requirements of achieving an overall performance management. We believe that the transition to the current stage was hastened by the global economic crisis that began in 2008. In this context, both financial accounting and management accounting must undergo changes in order to meet the users need for information. 2. Overall performance involves a new type of accounting A number of stakeholders both from inside as well as from outside the company exercise pressures related to social and environmental matters. These pressures are presented in Table no. 1. Table no. 1: Sources of pressures on the company concerning social and environmental issues It. no. 1. 2. Social and environmental stakeholder The State and its institutions The shareholders Pressures exercised on the company The legal provisions on social and environmental matters, environmental taxes. The increase in the company performance and the maximisation of its value.
2 Iacob C., Ionescu I., Goagr D., Contabilitate de gestiune conform cu practica internaional, Universitaria Publishing House, Craiova, 2007, p. 14 3 Brabete V., Criveanu M., Drgan C. - Comparative analysis on cost price philosophy in national and international context, Proceedings of Management of International Business and Economic Systems, 2011, pp. 451-460 http://mibes.teilar.gr/proceedings/2011/poster/p4.pdf
107
It. no. 3.
Social and environmental stakeholder The clients
Pressures exercised on the company
4.
5. 6.
They request products compliant with the environmental standards. They appreciate companies with responsible social and environmental policies. The employees, the trade They request the elimination of pollution at unions the workplace, compensations for occupational diseases due to pollution and social protection measures. The local community, the The elimination of the negative effects of ecologist organisations the business on the environment. The mass media Presents positive and negative aspects of the environmental and social policies, thus outlining the image of the company before consumers. Source: Information prepared by the authors.
The company can meet the expectations of all the categories above by obtaining overall performance: economic and financial, social and environmental. Managerial accounting evolved in recent decades from a supplier of financial information to a system of tools used by the company management to prepare the strategy, to relate with the external environment and to make economic forecasts. In Romania two oil groups (Petrom and Rompetrol) that dominate the domestic market have policies to obtain overall performance by investments in the social and environmental field. These policies are detailed on the websites of each of the two companies. 2.1. An accounting for the measurement of social performance The social responsibility of the company meets the internal and the external requirements. An important component of the social responsibility of a company is the provision of health and safety at work. A socially responsible company takes care of its employees health and safety in a manner that exceeds the requirements of the legal provisions but also takes into account the external implications. Thus, the provision of health and safety at work may be a criterion in the selection of subcontractors. The performance obtained by the company at the social level can be assessed based on criteria such as: health and safety at work, the number of newly created jobs, the impact on the development at regional level, providing professional development opportunities, observing the employees and customers rights, investments in areas such as culture, education, and health, imposing ethical standards on their employees, initiating actions to combat corruption, etc. All these generate costs that, for an adequate management, must be identified and tracked separately by the accounting system existing in the company.
Thus the necessity of the existence of a social accounting emerges. 2.2. Environmental accounting From the point of view of the environmental matters, traditional accounting has a number of shortcomings. For example it does not facilitate obtaining information on environmental costs, which are often hidden costs of the company. For example the costs of the wages of the staff involved in environmental actions are included in the same account as the other costs of the living labour. Traditional management accounting does not recognize the importance of environmental issues, which results in the following: - Environmental costs are often considered unimportant; - Certain types of environmental costs are not identified and tracked; - in the case of investments environmental costs are not always taken into account. Environmental accounting also referred to as green accounting aims to incorporate environmental costs and benefits in the decision-making process. The International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) considers environmental management accounting as the environmental and economic performance management through the development and implementation of theoretical and practical environmental accounting systems. According to the ISO 14.001 standard environmental performance is defined as the measurable results of an environmental management system related to an organization's control of its environmental aspects, based upon its environmental policy, objective and targets. In our opinion environmental policies should be monitored by companies together with the level of certain indicators such as profit, turnover, the return on sales, etc. Environmental management accounting is the identification, collection, analysis and use of two types of information required to make decisions: - Physical information on the use, flows and purpose of energy, water and materials (including wastes). These are very important especially for large companies, who have considerable spaces (mining or oil companies); - Monetary information on the environmental costs, earnings and savings. Environmental management accounting is focused on environmental costs and provides users with information on the movement and consumption of natural resources and energy. Environmental management accounting is a support for decision making, providing useful information in order to obtain financial and environmental performance. It should be noted, however, that the implementation of this accounting at the level of the company does not guarantee obtaining financial and environmental performance. The interest in obtaining environmental performance and in environmental management accounting derives from a few key factors: - the legal provisions in some countries require the publication of annual reports on environmental performance;
- the increase in the voluntary acceptance of the importance of the management of the environmental issues; - the promotion of the environmental management accounting by some national and international organizations; - environmental taxes levied by the State; - The customers who require that products should meet the environmental standards. In order to implement the environmental management accounting in the company it is necessary to adapt the current IT systems or to adopt new, cheap IT solutions that should nevertheless meet the users quality requirements. In our opinion, it is necessary to supplement the general chart of accounts by creating new accounts to record environmental information. Environmental costs can be classified into the following categories 4: - Categories reflecting the type of work environment (such as waste control vs. waste prevention); - More representative categories for the traditional accounting (cost of materials vs. costs of labour); - categories in the environmental area; - categories reflecting the visibility of the data in the accounting records (visible costs vs. hidden costs). Although, conceptually, environmental management accounting is no longer something entirely new in the company practice, it is in an early stage. Companies that implement it can thus benefit from competitive advantage. Companies' efforts to reduce their environmental costs will create benefits for the whole human society. The implementation of environmental management accounting has a number of advantages. Firstly it provides detailed information to decision makers in which environmental costs are shown separately. A company that strives to reduce the environmental impact of its activities improves its image and can attract more valuable staff with long-term effects on its activities. The benefits of environmental management accounting also result from the support it provides for5: - Environmental protection through the compliance with the environmental standards and the environmental policies adopted at the organizational level (planning and implementation of investments for pollution control, searching and buying substitutes for toxic materials, waste and emissions reporting to the competent authorities); - The simultaneously decrease of the costs and impact on the environment through a more efficient use of energy, water and materials (a more accurate tracking of the energy, water, materials and waste flows); - Evaluating and implementing programs to ensure the strategic position of the company.
4 5
IFAC, Environmental Management Accounting International Guidance Document, 2005, p. 37 German Environment Ministry, Guide to Corporate Environmental Cost Management , Berlin, 2003
110
The environmental cost analysis can identify new opportunities, savings can be made by recycling or using resources for other activities. 3. Statistics overall performance management tool Inductively, current statistics has become a manner of thinking with the help of data, and more generally, statistics turns from the wide concept of science by which you learn to think with the help of figures, for many entrepreneurs, close to the decision-making process, a simple, but effective overall performance management tool. Economics details three relatively emergent trends: a) the increase in the peoples need to think effectively with the help of data in the economic activity, and also in education and in the everyday life; b) the expansion of technologies available in providing people with support to be able to think with the help pf data; c) the increase in the scientific interest for understanding the way people think with the help of data (for the statistics way of thinking). The result of the interference between the most important element of the economy the entrepreneur and its enterprise, through specifically decisional statistical thinking outlines the business performance. Entrepreneurial thinking with the help of the statistical one (Svoiu, 2011) must determine: a) the basic values of the situation in terms of probabilities; b) the expected value through maximizing expected gains in a more distant future; c) the function of expected subjective utility; d) the value of the effect and the accuracy of the choice in the hope that since information is well analysed and statistically processed in a systematic manner, there will be no post-decisional regret. Customs or traditions, cultural and linguistic diversity, differences, the structure or organization of businesses and especially the relatively special priorities concerning the use and availability of resources are normal factors of the limitation of harmonisation and of restraining the statistical comparability in the economy of the present. There is however a system of fundamental statistical indicators focused on the financial and accounting information with maximum utility for the economic entrepreneur in the contemporary European market economy, known for a decade and a half under the designation of short-term statistics system (Svoiu, 2007). The methodological manual for short-term statistics of EUROSTAT highlighted ever since 1999, three requirements of this short-term incidental statistics system: a) the accurate knowledge of short-term economic events concerning the business cycle in all the activities; b) the increasing share of regional information together with a breakdown of the indication at the level of major regions of a country with a preponderantly monthly frequency; c) meeting the necessities of the data users concerning the business cycle in different markets and for different sizes of a business entity ((size classes) ensuring a reasonable level of detail, optimal number of indicators, increased clarity and comparability. The contemporary entrepreneur, the skilful businessman resorts, in the absence of resources, (time and money for his own research) to vector indicators with qualities of sensors (representative indicators) in order to determine the
approximate current state and prospects of an activity, economic regions or even a national economy, distinctive indicators in the economic recovery (the number of registrations of new businesses, the number of vacancies and newly created jobs, the change in unemployment and in absolute and relative terms, the dynamics and volume of loans for business development, the dynamics of exports, imports, private consumption and public administration, as well as various other specialized indices), in relation to the economic downturn (the number of bankruptcies, the dynamics of arrears, the dynamics of stocks and the dynamics of incomes and hourly gains, the dynamics of productivity, the evolution of social conflicts of any kind and of strikes, etc.) The minimal and functional design of this system essentially contains a set of incidental indicators or short-term indicators presenting following ten elements in an optimal manner. We can also notice other three important general aspects of it: the time horizon requiring the comparison with the nearest period, or the last period of the indicator respectively, the form of the indicator which is frequently that if a statistic index outlining the trend cycle in the attempt to eliminate fluctuations and the type of final totalling value, usually the monthly or moving average les sensitive or volatile to external factors or distortions. Usually, the standard statistical indicator of this system highlights changes compared to the corresponding periods of time of the previous year or even to previous periods or simply change rates, using a general formula: R (%) = I 100 - 100, where I is the index expressed by a coefficient and especially designed for such situations. I. The quantitative evaluation of the activity defined by production is made using its volume index and becomes the most important short-term indicator. The production is signified either as activity per se of processing, changing goods, or as result of the processing, changing goods. Thus production becomes value added to the cost of factors, and the production index becomes the evolution of the value added. The assessment of the production dynamics is basically done by its volume index, calculated with the monthly Laspeyres index formula (in its Geary index version):
pio qit p *jo q *jt

i =1 n j =1 m
j =1 (1) where: p = price, q = quantity, i = products * used as inputs, p = material price, q* = material quantity, j = materials used as inputs. The dynamics of the physical production or of the gross production is also calculated with indices in the Laspeyres formula without taking into account the material inputs:
q I t/o =
p
i =1
io
qio p q
* jo
100
* jo
(2) I t / o =
p q p q
0 0
t 0
100
112
The evolution of the value production is affected by the practical difficulty concerning the determination of the required price data. The most frequently adopted solution is the deflation of the sales with a Laspeyres price index. II. The anticipation of the activity summarised by orders and contracts is statistically quantified by the order and contract indices that include the evolution of the new orders (contracts) and of the stock of orders. The return on the statistical research of the orders is limited to the production activities and mainly to the order, the activities with a long production cycle, or the big order activities, and indices can be calculated using simple monthly value indices:
CN
(3) I t / o =
V V
CNt
100, where V CN 0 , t = the value of the new orders in the 0 or
CN 0
t periods
SC
(4) I t / o =
V V
SC t SC 0
100, where V SC0 , t = the value of the stock of orders in the 0
or t periods The volume index of the newly received orders is obtained by deflation with a Paasche price index. III. The essential incidental fluctuation factor, or investments respectively, whose short-term statistical evaluation is made by the tangible asset flow method. The concept gross investments in tangible assets underlying this method includes all the corporate capital assets having a life of more than one year, whether existing or newly acquired from third parties or produced for own use in order to: a) increase the production capacity; b) increase productivity by reducing unit costs; c) replace obsolete capital assets (machinery, equipment, facilities). The surveys are monthly or quarterly and lead to the assessment of the nation al production (PINV) to which, capital asset imports (M) are added and from which exports of the same assets (X) are deducted: (5) INVESTIII =PINV+MINV-XINV ; IV. The anticipation of the fluctuation tendencies (approached by investments) is approximated using the gross operating surplus; V. The approximation of the profitability is made in practice by highlighting two indicators: the turnover and the compensation for employees. The turnover index provides the determination of the sales dynamics, the difference between turnover and production is one of substance. The turnover is used to assess current sales trends, and respectively to identify market fluctuations (the demandsupply balance point), while production reflects the volume tendencies of the value added to the cost of factors. The difference becomes more obvious between the deflationary turnover index and the production index. Thus the unsold production influencing the increase in stocks is included in the index, but not in the turnover index, while sales of stock are included in the turnover, but does not affect production. Secondary production is often included in the turnover index, while the production index, based on a list of products does not include it, and the deflation
of the turnover can only be made with the price index for the domestic production and not with the export prices, which is not the case with production. The turnover becomes relatively synonymous for sales, dispatches, deliveries. The calculation of the turnover index consists in comparing the turnover of all units sampled and actually monitored of the current month t to the turnover of the baseline period 0:
CA
(6) I t / 0 =
CA CA
t o
x 100, where CA is the turnover.
The compensation for employees or the wages in terms of the national account system is shown by an aggregate index at the level of the activity. Certain EUROSTAT member states publish its variable as absolute figure. VI. The adjustment on various markets with the purpose of providing statistical value comparability is possible through the price index (industrial product price index, consumer price index, unit value index, etc.). Price indices, through the consumer price index and through the industrial product price index (domestic and export ones) aim to provide quick information on the business cycle fluctuations, the latter being significantly less frequently used as deflating indices. Calculated as Laspeyres indices, price indices are largely harmonized, the harmonized consumer price index (HPCI), being established in the EU project ever since 1997. VII. The necessary statistical detailing related to the use and purpose is substantiated in the indicators on inventories and fixed assets. VIII. The quantity assessment of labour resources is statistically substantiated by the number of labour and the unemployment rate. The used labour, as number of employed individuals, the unemployment rate and the volume of the of work time actually worked, expressed as number of hours worked, are key adjustment indicators in the labour area. IX. The intensive use labour is statistically measured through productivity as simple ratio between effect and effort indices. X. The quantity expression of the connection with the rest of the world or the foreign countries as an object of the SCN or SEC is given by the external demand through exports and by the foreign competition by imports. The export and import volumes, the coverage of imports by exports and the trade balance are the main indicators used to measure the relationship with the rest of the world. Short-term statistical indicator results should be consistent with other areas of the statistical system, since only an integrated and non-contradictory system of indicators is relevant and deserves the users trust. The concepts of social accounting and environmental accounting have found their place within the accounting system in recent decades. Statistics can also be an important tool available to managers in their approach meant to obtain overall performance. In the last decades we have witnessed the explosive development of computers that can be used from the collection and processing of data to
performance management. Today there is a variety of data processing applications and there is even a risk of a suffocation with information. L. erbnescu and C. Neculescu (2012)6 consider that most organizations dont need data. On the contrary, they have dozens of applications, files, data bases in which the smallest details are memorized regarding the daily activity. Yet, all these data should be united, compared, analysed and filtered to emphasize what is really important for the business. The cited authors propose the use of Business Inteligence solutions. The integration of accounting and statistical tools into the company overall performance management is shown in Figure 1. Figure no. 1: Opportunities to implement accounting and statistical tools into the overall performance management
Environmental accounting
Social accounting
Statistics
Integration into
Integration in
National accounting Aims
Financial accounting Aims
Management accounting Aims
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
THE COMPANY
Source: Adapted from aicu, M. - Contabilitatea managerial a mediului i dezvoltarea durabil a firmei, Provocri contabile. Articole, studii i cercetri, 2010, pp. 168-173 4. Conclusions The implementation of the social and environmental accounting must serve the need for improvement at the organizational level and to achieve social and environmental performance, and their implementation should not take place "at any cost". In our opinion, social and environmental accounting should not remain just a theoretical concept, it should be effectively implemented in companies.
6 erbnescu L., Neculescu C. Organizational Optimization of a Company Through the Implementation of Business Intelligence Solution, Acta Universitatis Danubius. conomica, Vol 8, No 5, 2012, pp. 15-25
115
Social and environmental policies are found in am increasing number of companies, either required by the law, or willingly adopted. Such policies generate environmental costs that have resulted in the emergence of environmental managerial accounting. The implementation of the social and environmental accounting in the company does not automatically imply that environmental performance will be obtained, but managers are thus provided with a useful tool for managing and measuring it. Until now the implementation of social and environmental accounting has taken place especially in large companies, because small and medium companies do not attach sufficient importance to environmental matters. In big companies, which have considerable financial resources, an environmental manager position can be created, in order to deal exclusively with such matters. C. Tilt and G.Lubansky (1999)7 concluded that although social and environmental accounting can be justified on grounds of moral obligations, fairness or justice, the distribution of power in society allows individual groups (such as corporations) to ignore their obligations without penalty. We believe that even now, after more than a decade, the statement of the quoted authors is applicable, as little progress can be seen in this area. A solution is the involvement of the state in this area. Legislation can and should be adapted in order to require social and environmental performance reporting. For successful strategic environmental objectives environmental education is essential and should take place from pre-school to the academic one. The academic education system and the scientific research are part of our contemporary life that can enhance development trends towards the development of tools available to managers, such as environmental management accounting, but also towards human ecology. References Bourguignon, A. (1995) Peut-on dfinir la performance?, Revue Franaise de Comptabilit, nr. 269, pp. 61-66; Brabete V., Criveanu M., Drgan C. (2011) - Comparative analysis on cost price philosophy in national and international context, Proceedings of Management of International Business and Economic Systems, pp. 451-460 http://mibes.teilar.gr/proceedings/2011/poster/p4.pdf Dumitrana, M, Caraiani, C. (coord) (2010) Control de gestiune, Universitara Publishing House, Bucharest; Firescu Victoria, aicu Marian (2011) Company Performance Measurement: Conceptual And Methodological Approaches, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference EBEEC, Piteti, pp 192-199; Ghere Marinela, Svoiu Gheorghe (coord.) (2010) Economia mediului. Tratat, Universitara Publishing House, Bucharest;
7
Tilt C., Lubansky G. (1999), The Political Obligations of Corporations: Justifying A Role For The State In Enforcing Accountability,www.flinders.edu.au http://scholar.googleusercontent.com/scholar?q=cache:vwphk xosgboj: scholar.google.com/&hl=ro&as_sdt=0
116
Gray R., D. Owen, & K. Maunders (1988) - Corporate Social Reporting: Emerging Trends in Accountability and the Social Contract, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, 1(1), pp. 6-20; Iacob C., Ionescu I., Goagr D. (2007) Contabilitate de gestiune conform cu practica internaional, Universitaria Publishing House, Craiova; Iacob Constana, aicu Marian (2012) Managerial Accounting And Environmental Performance Of Bakery Companies, Scientific Bulletin Economic Sciences, Volume 11 /Issue 1, pp. 16-24; Ionescu I., Iacob C., aicu M. (2012) Control de gestiune. Sinteze i aplicaii, Universitaria Publishing House, Craiova; Kaplan, R. S., Norton, D. P. (2001) - The Strategy-Focused Organization. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press; Lardenoije, E., van Raaij, E., van Weele, A. (2005) Performance Management Models and Purchasing: Relevance Still Lost, Researches in Purchasing and Supply Management, the 14th IPSERA Conference, pp. 687-697; Lebas, M. (1995) Performance measurement and performance management, International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 41, Issues 1-3, pp. 2335; Svoiu, G. (2011) Statistic pentru afaceri, Universitara Publishing House, Bucharest, pp.24-25 Svoiu, G. (2007) - Statistica. Un mod tiinific de gndire, Universitara Publishing House, Bucharest, pp. 378-381. endroiu C., Roman A., Chiu A.(2006) O nou dimensiune a contabilitii: Contabilitatea managerial a mediului, n The Journal of the Faculty of Economics - Economic Science Series, TOM XV, volumul II, pp.: 615-618; erbnescu Luminia (2009) Business Intelligence Solutions For Human Resource Management, The Annals of the "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava. Fascicle of The Faculty of Economics and Public Administration, vol. 9 (Special), pp. 162-168; erbnescu L., Neculescu C. (2012) Organizational Optimization of a Company Through the Implementation of Business Intelligence Solution, Acta Universitatis Danubius. conomica, Vol 8, No 5, pp. 15-25; tefnescu I, Iorga-Simn I, Svoiu Gh., Manea C. (2009) Life quality and human ecologyInterferences in academic education and in scientific research, Progress of Cryogenics and Isotopes Separation, Conphys Publishing House, Rmnicu Vlcea, vol 12, issues 23-24, pp.117-128; Tilt C., Lubansky G. (1999) - The political obligations of corporations:justifying a role for the state in enforcing accountability, www.flinders.edu.au, http://scholar.googleuser content.com/scholar?q=cache:vwphkxosgboj:scholar.google.com/&hl=ro&as_ sdt=0; aicu Marian (2010) Contabilitatea managerial a mediului i dezvoltarea durabil a firmei, Provocri contabile. Articole, studii i cercetri, pp. 168-173;
117
aicu Marian, Bondoc Maria-Daniela (2011) Cost Analysis A Company Performance Management Tool, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference EBEEC, pp. 184-191; aicu Marian, Svoiu Gheorghe, Apostol Ciprian (2010) Environmental management accounting, eco-performance and human ecology of modern companies, The Eco-Economic Challenges for XXI Century, pp. 81-86; *** German Environment Ministry Guide to Corporate Environmental Cost Management, Berlin, 2003; *** IFAC Environmental Management Accounting International Guidance Document, www.ifac.org, New York, 2005; *** IFAC Management Accounting Concepts, www.mia.org.my, New York; *** United Nations Division for Sustainable Development Environmental Management Accounting, Procedures and Principles, www.un.org, New York, 2001.
118
Partially Studied Models Based on Discreet Variables

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD Artifex University of Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Andreea Gabriela BALTAC PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Claudia Ctlina SAVA PhD Student Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu Abstract We study some types of models that do not fall into this category: - Models with discrete dependent variables, called qualitative response models where endogenous variables can take only two values (binomial dichotomous or binary response models) or a limited number of values (divided into several categories, multinomial, or model choice multiple); - Partially observed models (or models with limited dependent variables) where the dependent variable analyzes are reduced to a single value after a certain limit. We consider here models censored sampling designs. These latter models are characterized by a truncation process that depends on a latent variable that differs from the one that describes the observed data. Key words: models, discrete dependent variables, limited dependent variables JEL Classification: C18, C25
Models with dependent discreet variables partially studied When considering the econometric models, it is usually assumed that the p dependent variable can take any value within or . We shall study certain types of models which do not join this category: - Models with dependent discreet variables, known as the models of the qualitative response, where the endogenous
variables can take two values only (dyhotomic binomial or models of binary response ) or a limited number of values (divided by several distinct categories , multinomial, or models of multiple variants) - Models partially studied (or models of limited dependent variables), where the analysis of the dependent variable are reduced to a single value after a certain limit is exceeded. Here we take into consideration the licensed models or the sampling models. These last models are characterized by a process of cutting down depending on a dormant variable differing from the one who describes the studied data. Obviously, the writing of the conditional probability, of the form: ' z i is not possible in order to is not adequate since the restriction take certain discreet values only or to belong to a specific interval for all the values of
zi . These models are analyzed in the form of models indices.
with : q .The function is called function indexand can take any value out of the mass of the real numbers; ais a linear function index if it can be written as: and consequently it depends on z, through a linear combination, called function of transformation. Thus, is projecting the value of the real numbers from the interval [0,1] and can bedepending on the function of cumulative distribution of some distributive probabilities. We shall study different types of dependent discreet variables models and partially studied models, as well as the aspects concerning the estimations and tests. Dyhotomic models
They are characterized by the fact that the endogenous variable i can take two values only, 0 sau 1. The following study, on the maximizing the utility, is underlining the motivations for this type of model. In general terms, the model of the binary choice can be written as a model with indices which, we shall assume, has a linear index of the form:
120
The function has the characteristic of a function of cumulative distribution. There are two situations occurring: if is unknown, we estimate the model non-parametrically. If is known, we are using the traditional methods. In this last alternative, the choice generates the two main types of dyhotomic models studied by the literature. The first one is the probit model,where the function is simple and the distribution function of the normal standard:
The second one is the logit model, where is the logistic function:
When
The probit and logit models are usually giving similar outcomes. comparing the curves of the two distribution functions FN ( x ) i FL x 3 / (the one of logistics being normalized by the reverse of the
standard deviation), we notice the fact that they are almost identical, excepting the ultimate. - Models with non-arranged multiple variantsare a simple generalization of the models with binary variants. - Models with arranged multiple variants are grounded on responses discreetly arranged, for instance, the selection of financial assets with different profits. - Licensed models, knownalso astobit models, arecharacterized by the fact that the endogenous variable takes one single value starting as from a certain limit. For instance, the demand for a specific goods is blocked because the fact that out of the sales analysis it results that they cannot exceed the production capacity of the company. Another example consists of the duration of the unemployment period, which is forbidden since some individuals did not get out from the unemployment period and, hence, they are not accounted. Thus, in the case of this kind of models, the observations cannot be considered as an achievement of the continuous aleatory variables but merely as a combination of discreet and continuous variables. - The models of lack of balance have been developed in order to take into calculation the fact that, on certain markets, the quantity in transaction is not equal with the offer and the
121
(1) (0 ) instance, if we are studying the effect of a medical treatment, y i i y i are representing two alternative effects of the treatment, depending on the fact that the individual is or is not treated but, of course, we shall notice one outcome only. This example has been inserted into the models of the medical treatments effects but it can be extendedly applied in econometrics in order to evaluate the public policies (for instance, the policy regarding the labor force occupation, the policy in education field and so forth). In other words, we notice yi defined by:
demand simultaneously or, in other words, some of the sellers and buyers are not able to do the exchange at the market price. - Samples selection models (known also as models of incidental cutting downsor generalized tobit models) imply a cutting down process grounded on a dormant variable differing from the variable which describes the studied data. For instance, the desired number labor hours of a person which may depend on remuneration and the domestic characteristics is noticed only in the situation when the individual is actually working, namely, he gets paid a salary higher than the real (due) salary. Model with normal bi-dimensional distribution The literature shows also other types of samples selection models being proposed, such as the one where each individual may have one of the two possible states out of which there is only one which can be studied. (1) (0 ) Lets note with y i and y i the two possible outcomes foriindividual. For
with
Let
d i * be the dormant variable defined by a linear index zi :
then i can be written as
We define the equation of the potential income if i attends the treatment
122
(1) We notice y i defined by the relation:
The equation of the income if idoes not attend the treatment is submitted by the relation:
(0 ) and we notice y i defined by
Consider the effect of the treatment on the individual i: which, obviously, cannot be noticed. Estimation There are various methods of estimation which can be used. First of all, we are studying the non-parametrical estimations represented by those of the indices with no assumption as to the indices function. Secondly, we are studying the semi-parametrical estimation assuming certain forms of the indices function. Finally, we shall refer to the estimation of the maximum probabilities. The non-parametrical estimation The submitted models can be written as indices models of the form:
addition, in order to solve the issue of the non-identification of the pair ( , ), we
' z i , is a linear combination of elements where is a function from on and z z from i . We assume that isdifferent and that i , hasacontinuous density. In
bring to the normal form by setting 1 = 1 . Moreover, we shall utilize here some of its outcomes. The estimation is established by the following steps: - Estimates with the help of the estimator nucleus n ; Estimates
on the function
The non-parametrical regression yon
' 'z n where n is a vector of jn .
123
Another estimating procedure is based on minimizing 2 E [ ( ( z ) ( ' z )) ] observing and . Thestepsto run throughare the following: Establishing the estimation Estimation through Establishing an estimator
n obtainedby replacing with n .
The semi-parametrical estimation with a maximum probability In certain situations, such as the case of the binary selection models, the indices model is established so that the function holds the property of a distribution function. When are known, the traditional methods of estimation should be applied, such as the maximum probability. On the contrary, when isunknownwe have to go back to the specific nonparametrical methods which are exploring the property according to which is a distribution function. We apply this idea to the dyhotomic models. We come back to the binary selection model which takes the form of a model with linear indices, where has all the properties of a distribution function. If would be known, can be estimated by maximizing the logarithmic probability. Since it is actually unknown, we replace by a non-parametrical estimator ni . It can be shown that this estimator is a consistent and asymptotical normal one. The estimation of the maximum probabilities The models with discreet and partially studied variables are usually estimated through the method of the maximum probabilities. We come back to the models previously submitted and use their traditional presentation, namely, not in the form of a non-parametrical indices model. First of all, we consider the traditional representation of a dyhotomic model, where is assumed that the variable i takes two values ( i = 0 or 1). The tobit model has granted as guarantee the fact that by the logarithmical probability the rests are normally distributed. The logarithmical probability has a non-standard form since we have a mix of continuous discreet distributions but it can be maximized a recurrent method usual for getting MLE. References Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti
124
Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiz economic utilizarea modelelor n studiul economiei Romniei, Revista Romn de Statistic, Supliment Noiembrie 2012 Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, EdituraArtifex, Bucureti Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition, Oxford University Press Gourieroux, C., Jasiak, J. (2001) Financial econometrics: problems, models and methods, Princeton University Press, Princeton Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti Voineagu, V., ian, E. icolectiv (2007) Teorieipracticeconometric, Editura Meteor Press
125
Some Accounting Issues and Statistics about Romania and EU Funds - Absorption through Projects and Eligible Expenses
Senior Lecturer Gheorghe SVOIU PhD Lecturer Mariana BNU Lecturer Mihaela GDOIU University of Piteti, Faculty of Economic Sciences Abstract The first part of the article deals with the concise presentation of main European funds, the poor preparation of absorption of these funds in Romania during the period of pre- and post-adherence and a few statistics regarding the rate of absorption placed under the level of 10 % of some funds of over 30 billion euro between 2007 and 2013. The second part presents an accounting analysis of eligible expenses and main accounting problems which led to the blocking of some large sums from EU funds. A few final remarks upon these irremediably lost resources due to Romanian economy are made in a pessimistic way, within the context of a profound recession and of a national project management preponderantly noncompetitive and here and there without responsability. Key words: project, project management, EU funds, absorption rate of EU funds, SWOT analysis, project budget, eligible expenses. JEL Classification: C46, G23, H43, O22, M41
Any European financing fund was and is the expression of European Union politics which is either structural or of insurance of social cohesion, being conceived as a financial instrument for the promotion of this politics. The convergence of EU member states, disparities diminution between EU member states and consolidation of economic and social cohesion was achieved intercommunity by means of two categories of important funds till the moment of Romanian adherence on the 1st of January 2007: I. Structural funds initially estimated to the value of 195 billion euro for the period 2000 2006 which in their turn comprise four main categories: a) European social fund ESF, established after 1957, as a result of the treaty of ROME (more precisely from 1958); the major purpose of this fund is to support
the professional training, requalification of manpower and teenagersreintegration on the labour market. The main objective remained the prevention and control of unemployment through the access increase to labour market, chances equalization, increase of number of jobs and of professional qualification, the favourite domains being the social and labour market domains. b) European Fund of Orientation and Agricultural Guarantee EFOAG, established also after treaty of Rome, more precisely after 1960, and its component of functional orientation after 1962; the purpose was to support the conditions and qualitative improvement of programs of agricultural production and of marketing of these products in order to achieve thus a lasting rural development. The major objectives are further the structural adjustment and reconversion, development of agricultural activity (with emphasis upon its orientation), prices support of agricultural products. The favourite domains have become the investments in associations, facilities given to young agriculturists, support of retirement from agriculture, support of deprived areas (or with environment restrictions), support of agricultural methods which protect the environment and support of forestry. c) European fund of regional development EFRD created and being functional after 1975, became the most important component of structural support, its purpose being the correction of unbalances and participation to the development and transformation of regions. The productive investments directly resulted in domains such as creation of new jobs, investments in infrastructure (networks, education, health), development of internal potential, awarding of technical assistance. d) Financial instrument of fishing orientation FIFO has become functional only after 1993 being proposed after Maastricht, with the purpose to adapt and modernize the fishing equipments in a blue Europe. Its domains are the support of adaptation efforts in the fishing domain, fleet modernization, development of aquaculture, protection of marine areas, awarding of facilities for processing, marketing, promotion of piscatorial products. II. Social cohesion and technical assistance fund, which had a total value in the period 2000 2006 of about 18 billion euro and which was created after 1993. This fund directly finances individual projects which allow the environment improvement and development of transport networks having as main purpose the consolidation of social and economic cohesion through the support given to less prosperous states whose PIB is under 90% as against the community average. Till May 2004, it has been assigned exclusively to the poorest member states,respectively Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain and can cover till 80-85% from the total of public expenses. The functioning principles of these funds have remained practically the same also after our country adherence: I. Partnership is the existence of a close cooperation between EU and national, regional and local authorities from each member state (the funds allocation becomes thus the result of a dialogue).
II. Scheduling and internal coherence (scheduling = conception of some programs of multinational development and internal coherence = awarded by complementary actions, through explicit strategy as well as through global impact (bigger than the sum of impact of projects) III. Additionality or complementarity and external coherence the European funds dont substitute the financial efforts of member states, but they are additional. IV. Concentration- the financial support is pointed to the poorest regions, the financial resources to activities with maximum impact and to a limited number of prioritary objectives and serve a restricted number of regions. V. The category of other principles has in its content: a) efficiency principle (effect maximization of communitary allocations); b) subsidiarity principle (responsability assigning to authorities close to citizens); c) co-financing principle (financial support assurance including private, international financial support or of any other nature besides the public support); d) durability principle (the selection of a project for financing takes into consideration its chances to continue successfully even after the communitary support stops). 1.Analyses and statistics regarding the absorption of European funds by Romania Having a volume under 75% from average EU PIB, Romania qualified theoretically in pre-adherence at a financing level of the highest from EU projects in the period 2007-2013. It was suggested the use of genuine projects pipes, called also pipelineprojects. There have been some studies and SWOT analyses which signaled a preparation more than modest of the future access of Romania to European structural funds which doesnt rise yet to the level of resources which will be alloted, anticipating percentages of absorption close to zero in the first years post-adherence 2007 and 2008. Table 1: SWOT analysis of Romanian project portfolio at the end of 2006 Strong points -Existence of projects made -Experience and adaptability -Regional programs (ADR) -Plan of regional development (second revision from December 2005) -Regional operational programs (ROP) Weak points -Problems regarding the absorption capacity of funds to all new EU member states -Institutional frame -Control assurance -Problem of financial management -Quality of regional strategies ( according to Romanian Monitoring Report)
128
Threats -Appearance of some regional strategies sometimes non-connected with the national ones -Lack of a great number of teams already formed of project writers -Lack of involved private funds (in average, their contribution cannot rise to 50 %) - Monopolization of some activities of project editing with European financing at county level -Potential accounting and financial indiscipline *Note : The five national programs refer to economic competitivity, energetic and transport infrastructure, environment infrastructure, development of human resources and modernization of administration. Source: Svoiu, G. -coord- (2006). Projects with External Financing, Economic Independence Publishing House, Piteti. pag.156 -157 The weak points can also materialize in the pre-adherence of Romania, by detail and in the uncomplete reformed economy, in the low level of investments, in the high rate of unemployment, in the low level of services addressed to business environment and communities and in the low level of basic infrastructure necessary to economic activities. The potential financings of projects achieved in Romania from EU funds could rise at over 33.5 billion euro between 2007 and 2013, but the effective achievements indicate a general rate of funds absorption at the level of the Convergence Objective of 9.17% from EU allocation on the 30 of June 2012 respectively 11.47% at the end of 2012, according to official data presented by the Authority for Structural Instruments Coordination (ASIC). During the period 2007-2013, Romania benefits from an allocation of 19.213 billion Euro, which is implemented by means of the seven Operational Programs within the Convergence Objective. The National Strategic Reference Frame of 2007-2013 benefits of this allocation from: a) Structural funds (European Social Fund -3,684 billion Euro; European fund of Regional Development- 8.976 billion Euro); b) Cohesion Fund- 6.552 billion Euro; c) national co-financing estimated to 5.6 billion Euro. At the level of each Operational Program, the stage of implementation on the 31st of January 2013 is presented as follows:
Oportunities - Posibility to create excellence poles (group: university + research institute + IMM or administrative institution) - Existence of five national thematic programs projects - Existence of transversal programs and strategies - Possibility to form academic teams of project writers from students and teachers in universities through a mandatory discipline
129
Table 2: Allocation of European Funds and their rate of absorption on financing programs during the period 2007-2013
Source: Table realized by authors by synthesizing the webography resources of this paper.
130
In the case of the seven Profile Programs for the projects with disorders, Romania will have to accept financial corrections from European Committee till the level of 25%. For the period 2014-2020, Romania will receive 39.88 billion Euro structural and cohesion funds and funds assigned to agriculture comparatively with the value of 33.5 billion Euro, sum allocated in the previous period which leads to a growth with 18% in comparison with the allocations from the financial period 2007-2013 (as a result of adoption of EU multiannual budget of 2014-2020). The dashboard of European funds which will be received in Romania between 2014-2020 looks as follows (see http//: www.zf.ro): - For structural funds, Romania will receive 21.82 billion euro, with an increase of 10% against the allocations from the period 2007-2013 (19.8 billion euro, sum updated to the inflation). - For Common Agricultural Politics (CAP) it will receive 17,5 billion euro, with an increase of 27% against the allocations from present multiannual financial period of the Union (13,8 billion euro). - For direct payments to farmers, it will receive 10.3 billion euro, against 5.6 billion euro in the period 2007-2013 (plus 3.4 billion euro). - For rural development, it was allocated 7.1 billion euro, against 8.2 billion euro between 2007-2013 (minus 1.1 billion euro). Also, in the period 2014-2020, money can be spend in the interval N+3 (three years after the established date for a project to be achieved), against N+2 at present, which means that the all allocation must be absorbed in 10 years from the beginning of financial period. 2. Projects budget, elligible expenses and noncompliance with accounting discipline in the projects financed by EU In the life cycle of the project financed from European funds, we can identify three assessments of the project budget: a) ex ante budget assessment in whose context we make the opportunity study of project budget yet from auction and we have in view the definition and application of financial orientations of its activities; b) continuous assessment of budget, which develops during all the project and represents a monitorization instrument for decidents and financers being interactive related to the project evolution; c) ex post budget assessment, in whose context the analysis takes place after the project closing and quantifies the economic, social and scientific contribution of the project results. Any assessment of a project budget will have to answer to the questions regarding the four defining aspects of the project: why, how, when and for whom the assessment will be made, which finally leads to four classic assessment models of projects budget: a) Goal Achievement Model; b) Means Achievement Model; c) Human Resources Model; d) Political Model. If the first model tries to define in which measure the initial program was achieved, the second emphasizes the analysis of the decision process which influences the achievement or nonachievement of objectives initially
established, the third has in view the competence of those implicated in the project achievement (the project success depends essentially of this thing) and the fourth and last classic type of budget model starts from the indicators of pertinence and efficiency of the project in relation with the financing program which have been accepted by the main implicated parts. In a project budget, there will be included all its necessary expenses, but never there will not be comprised the non-elligible expenses mentioned even from the editing phase of projects. A budget will be possible ensuring the coherent and continuous development of the project in necessary quality conditions. Any expense which was not initially included can lead either to the solicitation of additional funds besides the one already approved( which can mean the project cancellation), or to the demand to modify the budget (which can be accepted by financers but between certain limits). Expenses can not be increased in the budget more than it is necessary. If there are reserves included in the budget for unexpected situations, these have maximum limits accepted by the financer. Besides the strictly necessary expenses, financers are willing to finance only the expenses related to the functioning of the financing program on the whole. If modifications are necessary in the budget, these can be made but with the financers approval who accepts as a rule when the variations dont affect the basis object of the project or when the financial impact is limited to a transfer within a single budget chapter. The assurance of personal contribution is necessary in the budget (excepting the non-reimbursable financings or grants), not only regarding the contribution in kind but also the financial resources. A bigger personal contribution can indicate to the financer that the sollicitant treats the project activities with interest and seriousness. In the practical development of the project, the promoter may start activities from the project before to receive the sum from the financer (as a rule, this sum is paid in more instalments but never exceeds 95 % at the end of the project). The personal contribution of the sollicitant or promoter must cover the expenses of project functioning during this period. A good accomplisher of project budgets will have the following skills very well assimilated in order to be capable to achieve a budgetary scenario as appropriate to the financing program of the project: a) completely knowledge of information and financial documents; b) understanding of dissociation between elligible costs and non-elligible costs; c) anticipation of elligible indirect costs; d) adaptation to the printed form structure of each program; e) establishing of coherent calculus modes (which are then kept). Elligibility / non-elligibility represents the concrete state of a project to achieve/to not achieve the mandatory criteria established, announced and disseminated through the projects auction by financer or the program agency. In detail, we can distinguish the promoters elligibility, the partners elligibility, the area elligibility, the activities elligibility, the budget elligibility, the expenses elligibility etc. It is also necessary an analysis of some aspects of the accounting organization and management of projects financed by European funds. As we
found from the analysis of allocation and absorption of European funds by means of the seven Operational Programs, the European Committeee applied financial corrections with a high level (even of 25%) as a result of verifications of programs run. For this reason, it becomes more important the knowledge of elligibility problems of expenses afferent to projects. For the implementation of projects financed from European funds, it is required a distinct book keeping, by using project analytic accounts. In the situation when the entity benefits of more projects financed from European funds, it is required to have a distinct book keeping for each project. In case of projects financing from European funds, some mandatory work procedures must be drawn up according to financing contract as for example: procedure for the reimbursement demand deposit, accounting procedure, payments authorization procedure, payments making procedure etc. The book keeping corresponding to the project1 will be achieved according to specific procedure by an accounting expert /authorized accountant according to law who will sign and date the accounting documents corresponding to project operations (with observance of accounting, fiscal, financing regulations etc.). The project manager is responsible with the application of procedure regarding the project accounting. Within the projects financed from European funds, from the point of view of elligibility, we can distinguish the following categories of expenses: - Elligible expenses: the expenses realized by a beneficiary corresponding to projects financed within operational programs which can be financed not only from structural instruments, but also from the state budget and/or beneficiarys personal contribution according to legal national and community regulations in force. Examples of elligible expenses within a Districtual Operational Program of Human Resources Development project: staff expenses; lodging, transport and daily fee expenses; expenses corresponding to project management; taxes; financial and juridical expenses; expenses for rents, amortizations and leasing; subventions and scholarships; general administrative expenses; publicity and information expenses, expenses of the type European Fund for Regional Development (EFRD). - Non-elligible expenses: expenses inherent to project achievement financed from structural instruments within the operational programs, which can not be financed from structural instruments according to national and community regulations. Examples of non-elligible expenses within a Districtual Operational Program of Human Resources Development project: value added tax; interest and other commissions corresponding to credits; collateral expenses which intervene in a leasing contract; expenses for houses for the operations which benefit of FSE financing; purchase of second-hand equipments; fines, penalties and judgement expenses; costs for operation of investment objectives.
1 The analytic accounts used in the project accounting must contain the following elements: number and account designation, abbreviation of the operational program, number and date of the contract for project financing.
133
We mention that in order to identify which categories of expenses are considered elligible within a project we can consult the list provided in Specific Conditions of the Sollicitants Guide for each demand of project proposals. Generally, in order to be elligible, an expense must accomplish the following conditions in a cumulative way2: a. to be effectively paid from the date provided in non-reimbursable financing contract; b. to be necessary for the realization of activities within the project; c. to be provided in the estimated project budget; d. to be in conformity with the principles of a rigorous financial management taking into consideration the efficient use of funds and an optimum costresults report; e. to be registered in the beneficiarys accounting, to be identifiable , verifiable and proved through invoices, in conformity with the provisions of the national legislation, or through other accounting documents with probative value, equivalent to invoices; f. not to have been the object of other public financings; g. to be in conformity with the provisions of the financing contract; h. to be conformable to the provisions of national and community legislation; i. to be mentioned in the list of eligible expenses presented in the Specific Conditions for each demand of project proposals. In certain limits imposed by EU rules, the elligibility conditions of expenses must be established at national level, this representing the appropriate level within the member state not necessarily at the level of central Government (can be at regional or local level), even specifically for an operational program. However,in this situation we must observe the condition that all established rules be in conformity with the respective community or national legislation. These rules of elligibility imposed at national level are considered as mandatory as the Committee rules and their non-observance attracts the declaration of expenses as non-elligible. In order to be discounted, the expenses made within the project will be integrated in budgetary chapters corresponding to their typology and will be supported by justificatory documents. At the reimbursement of expenses, there will be requested at least the following documents: invoices, entry-reception note (NIR), payment documents (payment orders), bank statements, consumptions orders, fixed assets sheet, minutes of putting in functioning, balance sheets for analytic accounts used in the book keeping of projects, accounting notes, trial balances, day book, inventory book etc. As it is mentioned in the regulations of EU politics and funds (http//: www.fonduri-ue.ro The Continuous Training of the Staff Implicated in the Administration of Structural and Cohesion Funds) regarding the elligibility of expenses, the strategy from Lisbon pointed out the following aspect: "the funds
2 The Districtual Operational Program of Human Resources Development 2007-2013, the Beneficiarys Manual, 2009 (revised)
134
objectives must be based upon the European Union priorities in matter of promotion of competitivity and creation of jobs. The Committee and member states assure that 60% of expenses of all member states allocated to the Convergence objective and 75% of expenses allocated to the Competitivity and work force occupancy objective are meant/allocated to these priorities. The cofinancing coefficients are limited and their maximum value for each objective is: a) convergence - between 75% and 85%; b) competitivity and work force occupancy between 50% and 85%; c) European territorial cooperation - between 75% and 90%; d) cohesion fund - 85 %. Conclusions In the case of Romania, the implications of an absorption capacity extremely reduced of European funds have been major and with a significant impact arguing briefly through the recession amplitude, the recession inertiality in national plan for more than a year in comparison with the world-wide duration, through the substantial reduction of average rhytm of national economic growth and through the great increase of external debt and loans from FMI. In the next period, the absorption rate level can not increase up to necessary values despite some extremely high allocated funds for the next years (??? billion euro, till 2020, structured on funds). Romanian agriculture hasnt benefit of those about 4 billion euro till 2012 and can not benefit further of greater sums). Nobody wants to imagine possible negative scenarios, but fast evolutions must be imposed in order that Romania could access in EU a greater percentage from funds allocated through feasible projects and especially usefull to lasting development and economic convergence with the developed states from European community in the long term future. It is easy for Romanian economy only to subscribe in EU club, but it is painful and critical not to be capable further to practically spend the available money from projects financed from European funds through coherent regional and national and especially useful strategies. The knowledge of aspects specific to the accounting organization and management of projects financed from European funds as well as of those regarding the elligibility of expenses have incidence upon the increase of the funds absorption rate and of diminution of financial corrections applied by the European Committee. In view of the absorption improvement of European funds it was outlined the expansion necessity of elligible expenses categories to be reimbursed from these funds with favourable effects also regarding the diminution of budgetary expenses. References Brgoanu, A., (2004). Project Management, Virtual Business University, Reia, Ed.www.comunicare.ro
135
Feleag N., Malciu L.(2004). Challenges of International Accounting at the Crossing Between Milleniums : Assessment Patterns and Immaterial Investments, Economic Publishing House, Bucureti, , pag. 158 Kerzner, H.(1998). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Schedulling and Controlling, Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York. Lock , D. (2000). Project Management, Ed. CODECS,Bucureti. Mc Collum, J., Bnacu, C. S. (2005), Project Management. A Practical Approach, Ed. University, Bucureti Munteanu, C., Horobe, A. (2005). Transnational Finances, Ed. All Beck, Bucureti. Svoiu, G. (2005). Project and Partnership in the Context of European Integration; Rules and Consequences, Statistics Romanian Review, INS, Bucureti, no.1/2005 presented also within Octav Onicescu National Seminar of Statistics. Svoiu, G. -coord- (2006). External Financing Projects, Ed. Economic Independence, Piteti. Webography http://www.europa.eu http://www.finantare.ro http://www.infoeuropa.ro http://www.cursdeguvernare.ro http://www.zf.ro http://www.fonduri-ue.ro http://www.portalcontabilitate.ro
136
Unele consideraii despre managementul resurselor materiale i logistic

Prof. univ. dr. Mircea UDRESCU Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Drd. Sandu CUTURELA Universitatea Naional de Aprare Abstract In time, we all became acquainted with notions with close significance, which suggests aspects of securing production, securing workplaces and ensuring the company with materials in order to realize its production function: supply, purchase, material assurance, resource management, workplace supply, management of materials, company logistics etc. Key words: supply, assurance, management, marketing, logistics, purchase, feeding in etc. JEL Classification: M11, R42
Logistica a evoluat i evolueaz, i din momentul n care a ncorporat fundamentele specifice de lucru ale tiinei, ca modul managerial de funcionare eficient a oricrui sistem social, logistica a cptat dimensiuni globale, propagndu-se ca o religie. Este lesne de neles c, sub aspect economic, managementul logistic relev arta planificrii i conducerii logisticii n sprijinul procesului de producie al companiei, pornind de la selecia furnizorilor, micarea materialelor n interiorul firmei i distribuirea produselor finite pn la consumatorul final. nelegerea acestui domeniu n cadrul firmei, ca actor important al economiei globale, presupune cunoaterea comportamentului de cumprare al companiilor, managementul stocurilor, planificarea i controlul produciei, managementul calitii, managementul transportului i distribuiei. Logistica asigur, prin managementul specific, gestiunea integrat a fluxului tuturor materialelor i produselor finite nspre i dinspre ntreprindere. Obiectivul fundamental al managementului logistic este furnizarea bunurilor/serviciilor ctre clieni cu cele mai mici costuri. Gestiunea integrat a ntregului ciclu operativ al ntreprinderii cuprinde: proiectarea, aprovizionarea, producia, distribuia, transportul i depozitarea, livrarea la client, asistena postvnzare. Literatura economic i limbajul cotidian abund de termeni care au contingen cu activitile de asigurare a proceselor transformatoare cu resursele materiale necesare. Aprovizionare, cumprare, asigurare material, alimentare,
gestionarea stocurilor, logistic etc. sunt noiuni utilizate pentru a semnifica aspecte ale aceluiai proces, sau procesul respectiv n integralitatea sa. Literatura economic strin utilizeaz frecvent termenii cumprare sau aprovizionare (achat i approvisionnment n lucrrile de origine francez, purchasing sau procurament n cele de sorginte anglosaxon)1, pentru ca de civa ani totul s fie asimilat de sintagma gestiunea fluxurilor materiale sau de noiunea logistic.2 Cu muli ani n urm, printele managementului modern, Peter Druker aprecia c autorii vest-europeni, europeni i americani, sunt mai mult preocupai de imaginea ce doresc s-o sugereze dect de acurateea coninutului semantic.3 Spre exemplificare, pentru unii, termenul cumprare reprezint un act comercial care cuprinde identificarea nevoilor, alegerea furnizorilor, negocierea preului i a altor condiii de tranzacionare i urmrirea comenzilor pn la livrarea acestora4, n timp ce pentru alii, a cumpra se explic prin obiectivele pe termen scurt ce trebuie s fie ndeplinite de asigurarea material n raport cu consumul.5 n multe situaii, termenii asigurare material, aprovizionare, alimentare, cumprare, gestiunea stocurilor etc. au fost nlocuii cu cel de logistic, acesta sugernd integrarea activitilor complementare la activitatea ce d sens afacerii6. Utilizarea acestor noiuni, a cror utilizare nu de puine ori deruteaz, se explic prin tendina de a percepe asigurarea material ca un proces dirijat, planifica i organizat cotidian pentru a aduce resursele materiale acolo unde sunt necesare, dar i ca urmare a tendinei de a pune semnul egalitii ntre asigurarea material i aprovizionare, incertitudinea de vocabular reflectnd diversitatea de organigrame i de atribuii efective, rezultat al aciunilor de definire a organizrii procesuale i structurale a managementului firmei funcie de natura obiectului de activitate.7 n vederea ndeplinirii obiectivelor sale , o organizaie are nevoie de resurse materiale adecvate, att din punct de vedere calitativ, dar i cantitativ. La rndul lor, resursele materiale necesare pot fi de diferite feluri:8produse, materii prime, utilaje i echipamente, dar i servicii de diferite tipuri: de construcii, de transport, de consultan i studii etc. De aceea, asigurarea materialelor, n condiiile economiei de pia, are anumite trsturi, astfel: sunt relaii de transfer (de schimb) ntre diferite firme i o autoritate contractant; sunt relaii economice prin care furnizorul urmrete obinerea unui profit, iar beneficiarul urmrete
Mescon, M.H., Albert, M., Khedauri, F., Management, Thired Edition Harper, Row Publisher, NY, 1988, p.2936 2 Lienemann, Carsten, InformationslogistiK Qualitat im Fokus, in Deiters, Wolfgang; Report informationslogistik Informationen just in time. Symposion Publishing, Duseldorf, 2001 3 P. Druker, The Practice of Management, London, Heineman, 1955, p. 12-38 4 John W. England, Evolutionary Concepts in Contemporary Economics. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1994, p. 6 5 S. Heinritz, P.V.Farrel, L. guinipero, M. Kolchin, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Preutice Hall. Second Edition, 1998, p. 34-39 6 Cf. Ballan, R., Basic Business Logistics, Prentice-Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1978, p.46 7 M. Couetoux, Compatibilite generale entreprise par, Broche, 1 mars, 1974, p.86 8 Cf. Bauer, Michael J., Poirier, Charles, Lapide Lawrence, Bermudez, John, E-Business: The Strategic Impact on Supply Chain and Logistics, CSC Consulting, AMR Research, Council of Logistics Management, 2001, p.82
1
138
obinerea unui avantaj economic, care poate s fie cost sntos(care asigur cel mai bun raport calitate/cost i uneori chiar o stare de profitabilitate); efectele economice se regsesc la nivelul activitii beneficiarului, n sensul c se pot satisface mai multe obiective, cu aceeai valoare financiar; sunt raporturi economice care depind de raportul de putere care exist ntre furnizor i beneficiar. n condiiile reale ale economiei de pia, declanarea produciei, substana oricrei afaceri, care prefigureaz un anumit nivel al consumului, se face n urma cuantificrii nivelului cererii9 n trinomul: nevoi, dorine i cerine. Modul de satisfacere a acestei cereri se sprijin pe activitile subsistemului vnzri, care pune n ecuaie capacitile de producie, nevoile de consum estimate i stocurile existente.10 n mod ideal, o activitate de asigurare material se consider c trebuie s satisfac nevoile pornind de la ntrebarea Ce se cere?, iar rspunsul trebuie fac referiri la minimizarea costurilor de gestiune, concomitent cu asigurarea unui grad de securitate corespunztor, prin a determina rspunsuri optime la Cnd se cere? i Ct se cere?11 Asigurarea rspunsurilor la ntrebrile Ct se cere?, Unde se cere?, Cum se cere?, La ce pre se cere? presupune strategii comerciale menite s valorifice eficient oportunitile pieei. Pentru cei care departajeaz asigurarea material de asigurarea tehnicmaterial, totul are legtur cu compararea activitilor tehnice de producie de cele care sunt specifice numai proceselor elementare de consum. Pentru acetia: asigurarea material, asigurarea material, pentru a-i realiza obiectivele n condiii de eficacitate, trebuie s se bazeze pe studii strategice de perspectiv rezonabil; n vederea creterii eficienei pe termen scurt, activitatea de asigurare material trebuie s se bazeze pe planuri i sisteme de gestiune, rezultate direct din obiectivele generale, care la rndul lor se stabilesc pe baza asigurrii tehnicomateriale , de dotare i nzestrare tehnologic; eficiena componentelor tehnice ine de eficiena cu care sunt alimentate cu materialele12 de consum. Datele referitoare la strategiile i politicile de achiziie pe pia sunt obinute ca urmare a necesitii efecturii unor studii specifice ce au drept scop identificarea oportunitilor i a ameninrilor, respectiv dezvoltarea unor politici de valorificare sau de contractare n cazul ameninrilor13.
9 Arnold, J. R. Tony, Stephen N. Chapman, Introduction to Materials Management, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2003, p.11-34 10 Ackerman, Keneth B., A Manager's Guide, in Transportation and Distribution, June, 1999, p.67-69 11 Cf. Ballou, Ronald H., Business Logistics/Supply Chain Management, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, 2004, p.31. 12. Chopra, Sunil, Peter, Meindl, Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning and Operations, Upper Saddle, River, NJ:Prentice-Hall, Inc., 2001, p.37-44 13 Pe larg, Harmon, Roy L., Reinventing the Warehouse World Class Distribution logistics, The Free Press, New York, 2003, p.82
139
Pe plan local, se consider c sintagma asigurarea i gestiunea resurselor materiale ar exprima mai bine realitatea, deoarece:14asigurarea cu resursele materiale trebuie privit ca o funcie a unui sistem al managementului logistic, rezultat din necesitatea unor obiective specifice; asigurarea cu resursele materiale nu poate fi redus la o activitate de aprovizionare propriu-zis, ea avnd un coninut mult mai mare; nu este indiferent modul cum se asigur resursele materiale (calitate, pre, costuri, siguran etc.), din care cauz, pentru a permite msuri de control-evaluare eficiente, trebuie s existe sisteme de apreciere a performanelor. Ca atare, noiunea sau sintagma ce se urmrete n redarea sistemului de idei este necesar s corespund coninutului specific al activitilor ntr-o organizaie competitiv. Dimpotriv, sunt i puncte de vedere care susin ca indicat sintagma de asigurare material, deoarece15: las loc unei adaptri n spirala cerere i ofert de pe pia, este particular legat de natura firmei, contribuind la definirea coninutului comportamentului instituional, las loc deschis colaborrilor dintre concureni etc. Asigurarea material poate fi gndit ca o funciune a firmei care, n actualele condiii de competitivitate, se caracterizeaz prin: existena tot mai accentuat a tendinei de reevaluare a locului i rolului activitii de asigurare material, aceasta devenind dintr-o activitate subordonat una cu o poziie egal cu celelalte activiti importante ale firmei; repoziionarea subordonrii directe a acestei activiti din ce n ce mai frecvent conducerii superioare a firmei; creterea sensibilitii tuturor angajailor fa de activitatea de asigurare material, att ca urmare a influenelor negative pe care le poate determina o asigurare necorespunztoare, ct, mai ales, ca urmare a nevoii de exploatare competitiv a oportunitilor ce in de o bun asigurare material; creterea tendinelor de desfurare a activitilor firmei dup cerinele calitii totale; corelarea tot mai strns dintre asigurarea material i politicile de marketing etc. O dat cu apariia i dezvoltarea globalizrii, o nou noiune, LOGISTICA, a nceput s capete din ce n ce o tot mai mare utilizare. La simpla lecturare massmedia cotidiene ntlnim, din ce n ce mai mult, expresii de genul: logistica didactic, logistica unei adunri, logistica unei autostrzi, logistica forelor de ordine, logistica infractorilor, logistica spitalului, logistica militar, logistica firmei, canale logistice, companii logistice .a.m.d. De la nceput, suntem obligai s acceptm c logistica este o noiune, cu o larg ntrebuinare, ce sugereaz baza tehnico-material n care se organizeaz i execut diverse activiti. Pentru a surprinde corelaiile integratoare specifice logisticii firmei, este necesar s aducem cteva argumente n legtur cu apariia i dezvoltarea sensurilor i semnificaiilor generale ale noiunii i sistemelor logistice. Astfel, dicionarele de baz ale limbii romne sugereaz c logistica este un substantiv feminin, avnd ca sorginte cuvntul de origine francez LOGISTIQUE ce exprim fie arta calculelor, fie un domeniu al logicii formale,
Crstea G., Asigurarea i gestiunea resurselor materiale Marketingul aprovizionrii, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2000, p.22-35 15 Dima, I.C., (coordonator), Management logistic, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic, Bucureti, 1996, p.3-48
14
140
responsabil de aplicarea metodelor matematice n cibernetic, electronic, lingvistic etc. Exist ns i diferite materiale care consider logistica o noiune ce s-a dezvoltat de la cuvntul grecesc LOGISTIKOS, care definete pe cineva priceput n a face calcule16. Unele dicionare ale limbii franceze apreciaz c LOGISTICA are dou nelesuri: n primul rnd, cea de logic matematic, parte a logicii moderne, ce se ocup de aciunile combinatorii, i, n al doilea rnd, de parte a artei militare care se ocup cu transportul i revitalizarea armatelor.17 ncercnd s localizeze nceputurile logisticii moderne, doctorul n economie Mihai Korke, n articolul Timpul-factor de optimizare a activitilor agenilor economici, consider c, n a doua jumtate a secolului XX, logistica i face apariia n viaa civil pentru rezolvarea problemelor aprovizionrilor pieelor din S.U.A. aflate la mari distane fa de nordul industrializat18. Cu peste cinci decenii n urm, n literatura economic romneasc, logistica exprima un complex de activiti, cuprinznd manipularea, transportul, sortarea, depozitarea produselor, formarea sortimentului comercial, prepararea i executarea comenzilor, avnd drept scop deplasarea fizic a produsului de la productor la utilizatorul final cu cele mai reduse costuri ocazionate de procesul distribuiei19. Pornindu-se de la coninutul esenial al logisticii din domeniul marketingului, de asigurare a deplasrii fizice a produselor de la productor la utilizatorul final, cu cele mai reduse costuri ocazionate de procesul distribuiei, tot mai muli specialiti n managementul firmei au trecut la folosirea sintagmei LOGISTICA INDUSTRIAL , pentru a desemna dimensionarea optim a fluxurilor de materiale i a operaiunilor legate de acestea. n acest nou ansamblu metodologic se au n vedere att optimul decizional, de comand, ct i cele de instrumentare fizic de depozitare, sortare, manipulare , transport etc. Aceast nou abordare a logisticii a fcut s se schimbe concepia prin care operaiunile legate de logistica de marketing depozitare, sortare, manipulare, transport etc. nu ar contribui la sporirea valorii produsului, cu una nou, cu una nou, ce susine faptul c valoarea unui produs este strns legat de apariia acestuia la momentul i la locul cerute de consumator. Aceast nou viziune asupra logisticii a stat la baza fundamentrii concepiei de producie Gest in time. ncetul cu ncetul, LOGISTICA a nceput s fie perceput tot mai mult ca o TIIN A VIITORULUI, avnd drept obiect de studiu dimensionarea i corelarea optim a fluxurilor de informaii i de bunuri, cu scopul de a adapta continuu firma la condiiile de mediu.
16 Mircea Udrescu, Logistica i globalizarea, n volumul Spaiul sud-est european n contextul globalizrii Sesiune de comunicri tiinifice cu participare internaional STRATEGII XXI, Bucureti, 12-13 aprilie, 2007, p.306-307. 17 Pe larg, Nouveau Petit Larousse, 1985, p.634 18 Mihai Korke, Timpul-factor de optimizare a activitilor agenilor economici, Sisteme logistice nr.2,1991, p.7. 19 Colectiv, Dictionar de marketing, Editura Junimea, Iai, 1979, p. 192-193.
141
Ca atare, LOGISTICA a devenit o COMPONENT DISTINCT A MANAGEMENTULUI, determinarea tiinific a momentului n care un produs trebuie s se gseasc n fiecare punct al lanului productiv i de desfacere fundamentnd imaginea logisticii moderne. Din aceste considerente, cu puin nainte de sfritul secolului XX, devenise o convingere managerial faptul c logistica era perceput a fi ...o condiie esenial a competitivitii n relaiile economice actuale ...un instrument de natur managerial, o tehnologie de sintez, coordonnd sarcinile aprovizionrii, desfacerii, gestiunii industriale, prestaiei postvnzare. Logica de baz a logisticii impune principiul dup care suma optimurilor locale nu este egal cu optimul global20 Logistica a evoluat i evolueaz, i din momentul n care a ncorporat fundamentele specifice de lucru ale tiinei, ca modul managerial de funcionare eficient a oricrui sistem social, logistica a cptat dimensiuni globale, propagndu-se ca o religie. Este lesne de neles c, sub aspect economic, managementul logistic relev arta planificrii i conducerii logisticii n sprijinul procesului de producie al companiei, pornind de la selecia furnizorilor, micarea materialelor n interiorul firmei i distribuirea produselor finite pn la consumatorul final. nelegerea acestui domeniu n cadrul firmei, ca actor important al economiei globale, presupune cunoaterea comportamentului de cumprare al companiilor, managementul stocurilor, planificarea i controlul produciei, managementul calitii, managementul transportului i distribuiei. Logistica asigur, prin managementul specific, gestiunea integrat a fluxului tuturor materialelor i produselor finite nspre i dinspre ntreprindere. Obiectivul fundamental al managementului logistic este furnizarea bunurilor/serviciilor ctre clieni cu cele mai mici costuri. Gestiunea integrat a ntregului ciclu operativ al ntreprinderii cuprinde: proiectarea, aprovizionarea, producia, distribuia, transportul i depozitarea, livrarea la client, asistena postvnzare. Tendina logisticii globale o reprezint orientarea ctre conjunctura actual i potenial a cererii i ofertei pe piaa serviciilor logistice, avnd ca motor de dezvoltare coordonatele concureniale europene i mondiale n domeniu. n acest scop se desprinde concluzia c accesul la poziii decizionale n marile companii este cu mult mai uor de realizat dac aspiranii au pregtire i experien n domeniul logisticii i managementului operaiunilor logistice. n economia global, specific societii bazate pe cunoatere, eficiena managementului logistic presupune corelarea celor trei componente ce reunesc activiti desfurate deopotriv n interiorul companiei (activitile de susinere a produciei), ct si la interfaa cu secvenele din amonte (intrrile) i din aval (ieirile), n cadrul canalelor de marketing (aprovizionarea i distribuia fizic). Renumitul teoretician n domeniu - John Gattorna susinea c, pan nu de mult, se fcea greeala de a asocia procesele manageriale logistice cu distribuia
20
Rodica Chiri, Logistica factor de stimulare a ntreprinderii, Tribuna economic, nr. 2, 1990, p.32
142
produselor finite, adic cu ultima etap a produciei. Acest punct de vedere a ignorat rolul managementului logistic n gestionarea fluxurilor interne de materii prime, subansamble, brevete, piese i ambalaje. Acest flux fizic este nsoit de un flux de informaii n ambele sensuri care reprezint cadrul de operare al logistici21. n prezent, multe din ideile susinute de John Gattorna sunt deja realitate, deoarece toate firmele care se bucur de succes consider logistica tot mai mult o funcie managerial, care este responsabil de sincronizarea produs, loc, timp, avnd drept finalitate optimizarea de ansamblu a activitilor pentru meninerea organizaiei n mediul concurenial. Avnd n vedere globalizarea i socializarea logisticii, profesorul universitar Bernard Helmut Kortshac, de la Universitatea Economic din Viena, aprecia c logistica realizeaz o descriere complex a interaciunii bazate pe diviziunea i specializarea muncii ntre elemente, funcii, compartimente i ntreprinderi, ntre naional i internaional, n condiiile transformrii pieei vnztorului ntr-o pia a cumprtorului. Logistica reprezint, aadar n opinia profesorului, TIINA I INSTRUMENTUL DE OPTIMIZARE a eforturilor n cele mai diverse domenii: n transporturi, n funcionarea spitalelor, n ndeprtarea deeurilor rezultate din orice activitate, n cucerirea spaiului cosmic,n negocierea afacerilor ntinzndu-se de la logistica ntreprinderii la logistica naional,de la logistica naional la logistica european i pn la cea mondial22. Dac avem n vedere compania productoare, managerul logistician este singura persoan din firm ce poate conduce gestionarea tuturor fluxurilor de informaii i de materiale, pornind de la conceperea produsului i pan la consumul lui, innd cont de interaciunile acestor fluxuri. O asemenea poziie i d posibilitatea managerului departamentului logistic s estimeze capacitatea firmei de a rspunde ateptrilor. n conformitate cu prevederile studiului renumitei organizaii Council of Logistics Management, n anul 1986, managementul logistic era definit ca fiind procesul de planificare, implementare i control al fluxului i stocrii eficiente i eficace sub aspectul costurilor, a materiilor prime, produselor n curs de prelucrare, produselor finite i fluxurilor informaionale conexe, de la punctul de origine la punctul de consum, cu scopul ndeplinirii cerinelor clienilor23. n anul 2003, aceeai organizaie Council of Logistics Management (CLM) din SUA a formulat o nou definiie a managementului logistic. Definiia respectiv coninea o serie de modificri eseniale n raport cu definiiile anterioare. Astfel, dac logistica este considerat ca parte integrant a lanului de aprovizionare-livrare, managementul logistic include, de regul, toate activitile referitoare la managementul transporturilor spre i de la organizaie, managementul flotei de mijloace de
John L. Gattorna (coordonator) i colectiv, Managementul logisticii i distribuiei, Editura Teora, Bucureti, 1999, p. 48. 22 Bernard Helmut Kortshac, Logistica, n Sisteme logistice nr. 2,1991, p.7. 23 Carmen Blan, Evoluii conceptuale n domeniul logisticii i lanului de aprovizionare livrare, n Abordri i determinri funcionale ale logisticii Simpozion tiinific la Catedra Logistic, Finane i Contabilitate din UNAp, 02.02.2007, p.165-166.
21
143
transport, depozitarea, manipularea materialelor, onorarea comenzilor, proiectarea reelelor logistice, managementul stocurilor, planificarea livrrii/cererii i managementul prestatorilor teri de servicii logistice.24 Funcia managerial logistic include, totodat, dup cum este i firesc, alegerea furnizorilor i aprovizionarea, planificarea i programarea produciei, ambalarea i asamblarea, precum i servirea clienilor. Astfel, din punct de vedere managerial, se remarc implicarea logisticii n toate nivelurile de planificare i execuie ale companiei strategic, operaional i tactic. Rezult aadar c, managementul logistic este o funcie integratoare la nivelul firmei/organizaiei, care coordoneaz i optimizeaz toate activitile logistice pe care le integreaz cu alte funcii, printre care marketingul, vnzrile, producia, finanele i tehnologia informaiei. Potrivit precizrilor efectuate de CLM, se remarc o serie de clarificri suplimentare ale coninutului conceptului managerial de logistic rezultat din analiza limitelor i relaiilor cu alte funciuni i activiti ale organizaiei. Principalele aspecte subliniate sunt urmtoarele: managementul prestatorilor teri de servicii logistice, planificarea i programarea produciei, nivelurile de aplicabilitate a conceptului, rolul de funcie integratoare. Din ce n ce mai multe firme adopt i aplic astzi cerinele logisticii, precum i sintagma de management integrat al logisticii. Potrivit acestui concept, pentru oferirea unor bunuri i servicii mai accesibile clienilor i reducerea cheltuielilor de distribuie este necesar munca n echip, att n interiorul firmei ct i cu toate organizaiile care constituie canalul de marketing. n acest scop, compartimentele funcionale ale firmei vor aciona n strns cooperare n vederea maximizrii rezultatelor organizaiei n domeniul logistic. Totodat, pentru a maximiza rezultatele ntregului sistem de distribuie, firma va trebui ca, n exterior, s-i integreze sistemul su logistic cu cele ale furnizorilor i clienilor si25. n opinia specialitilor n domeniu, obiectivul fundamental al managementului integrat al logisticii l reprezint armonizarea tuturor deciziilor privind distribuia, care sunt luate la nivelul companiei. n acest scop, pentru realizarea unor relaii compatibile ntre funcii, unele firme au constituit comitete logistice permanente, alctuite din manageri cu responsabiliti n derularea diferitelor activiti de distribuie fizic. Tot n sensul de integrare eficient, specialitii afirm c firmele pot crea i posturi speciale care leag activitile logistice ale diferitelor domenii funcionale. Astfel, numeroase firme dispun deja de un vicepreedinte responsabil cu logistica, a crui autoritate este interfuncional n coordonarea activitilor logistice i de marketing, pentru gestionarea eficient a activitilor lanului ofertei (lanului de aprovizionare-livrare) la fiecare categorie de produse n parte, n vederea satisfacerii la un nivel superior a nevoilor clienilor, la costuri rezonabile26.
24 25
Carmen Blan, Logistica , Ediia a III-a revzut i adugit, Editura Uranus, Bucureti, 2006, p. 309-312. Philip Kotler, Gary Armstrong, Principiile Marketingului, Ediia a III-A, Editura Teora SRL, Bucureti, 2005, p.615-616 26 Ibidem.
144
n vederea coordonrii strategiilor logistice i construirii parteneriatelor puternice cu furnizorii i clienii, pentru mbuntirea serviciilor oferite i reducerii costurilor aferente canalelor de distribuie, numeroase firme au constituit echipe logistice interfuncional interfirme. La nceputul deceniului actual, specialitii au inclus n rndul deciziilor manageriale logistice o alegere suplimentar, respectiv decizia de a realiza cu fore proprii sau de a externaliza activitile logistice. n acest fel, managementul prestatorilor de servicii a devenit o component distinct a logisticii. Aceti furnizori independeni de servicii logistice ndeplinesc n totalitate sau o parte din funciile necesare pentru ca produsele clienilor lor s ajung pe pia. n acest mod, prin subcontractarea activitilor logistice, compania poate s dispun de un sistem complet de distribuie a bunurilor, fr s fie nevoit s suporte costurile, ntrzierile i riscurile asociate nfiinrii propriului su sistem. Potrivit studiilor fcute, subcontractarea permite, de regul, reduceri de costuri de 15 pn la 30%.27 Dup cum s-a remarcat, planificarea i programarea produciei sunt integrate n aria de competen a logisticianului. Totui, CLM a folosit sintagma n grade variate, pentru a ilustra gradul de implicare a managerului logistician n domeniul planificrii i programrii produciei28. Motivele variaiilor pot fi absena activitilor de producie/prelucrare n anumite organizaii, precum i participarea logisticianului ca membru n echipe de lucru, alturi de specialitii n domeniul planificrii operaiunilor produciei. Actualmente, statutul logisticii n cadrul organizaiei este mai bine precizat, fiindc este implicat n toate nivelurile procesului managerial, de la planificare la execuie. Spre deosebire de accepiunile din deceniile anterioare, logistica nceteaz s mai fie privit doar ca un set de activiti i prioriti imediate, desfurate n funcie de imperativele momentului. Din perspectiva accenturii globalizrii n societatea bazat pe cunoatere, ne asociem aseriunii sociologului Ilie Bdescu potrivit creia, prin logistic, instituie i computer, controlul prin tiin asupra ntinderii i timpului a devenit posibil. n viziunea sa, termenii englezi C.I.M.-Computer Integrated Manufacturing i C.I.L.-Computer Integrated Logistics reprezint faza computerizrii operaiilor logistice. De aceea, n acest moment, tiina capt puteri egale cu ale religiei i filozofiei, n sensul c poate controla, ba chiar interveni n succesiunea secvenelor temporale, transformnd secvenele temporale succesive n secvene sincronizate i deci simultane ori chiar reversibile. Prin unirea logisticii computerizate cu instituia a rezultat managementul logistic sau logistica instituional. Din punct de vedere logistic,sociologul Ilie Bdescu apreciaz c, n prezent, se trece de la instituia
Ibidem, p. 617. Carmen Blan, Evoluii conceptuale n domeniul logisticii i lanului de aprovizionare livrare, n Abordri i determinri funcionale ale logisticii Simpozion tiinific la Catedra Logistic, Finane i Contabilitate din UNAp, 02.02.2007, p.168
28
27
145
mic la instituia megalitic, pe care nici statele naionale foarte puternice n-o mai pot controla29. Din aceste aprecieri este cert c att globalizarea, ct i logistica sunt dou noiuni ce au cunoscut semnificaii deosebite n ultimii cincizeci de ani. O dat cu noile concepii despre funciile firmei, logistica a trecut de la logistica de marketing la logistica industrial, cptnd valene de funcionalitate global, gestionnd, dup principii de eficien, fluxurile de informaii i de materiale din amonte de ntreprindere, din interiorul acesteia, precum i din aval de aceasta, fiind responsabil de realizarea produselor din momentul proiectrii pn la ajungerea lor la consumatorul final, cu cele mai mici costuri. Pe msur ce aceeai surs de capital a cptat o tot mai divers utilizare, acoperind o arie multipl de domenii de activitate, logistica a ctigat noi valene globale, devenind responsabil de eficientizarea capitalurilor n profil teritorial, gestionnd fluxurile de informaii i de bunuri specifice produciei de bunuri, infrastructurii, educaiei, securitii, aprrii mediului, sntii etc. Lumea social reflect, desigur, polarizrile economice, n sensul c elitele globalizate sunt tot mai mult atrase de noile valori economice pe care le mprtesc i le propag, n timp ce mari mase ale populaiei sunt nclinate spre naionalism, etnocentrism i spre imprevizibile micri de eliberare de sub ceea ce se percepe a fi izvorul srciei dictat de hegemonia globalizrii. ntr-un astfel de mediu, rezistena la procesele globalizrii este previzibil s evolueze spre radicalism ideologic, mai ales n rile n care elita politic conductoare este redus numeric, iar globalizarea este tot mai mult perceput ca o surs de srcie, de dominaie mascat,de transfer neechitabil de avuie naional ctre anumii poli hegemonici30. Logistica global catalizeaz, potrivit opiniei noastre, procesele economiei globalizate, n societatea bazat pe cunoatere, n numele unor scopuri politice globale. Dar, dincolo de tendinele benefice, globalizarea economic i logistic este nsoit i de fenomene dureroase, ca: exacerbarea intereselor cronice locale i regionale; mondializarea marii criminaliti organizate, responsabile de traficul de droguri, stupefiante, armamente etc.; radicalizarea fanatismelor de sorginte etnic i religioas; diversificarea aciunilor teroriste etc. Condiionrile logistice ale globalizrii, n societatea bazat pe cunoatere, se exprim prin aa-zisele standarde minime ce se cer unor organizaii, comuniti sau naiuni pentru a accede la aspecte ce prezint interes. Cnd se cere ca o autostrad s dispun de anumite faciliti logistice, un autoturism s ndeplineasc unele norme ecologice, produsele alimentare s se conserve n anumite condiii tehnice etc., de regul exist interese ca anumite produse s fie vndute n zon, stimulndu-se consacrarea unor productori privilegiai. n acest mod, progresul
29
Mircea Udrescu, Logistica i globalizarea, n volumul Spaiul sud-est european n contextul globalizrii Sesiune de comunicri tiinifice cu participare internaional STRAREGII XXI, Bucureti, 12-13 aprilie, 2007, p.308. 30 Ibidem, p.309.
146
devine apanajul unei elite productoare, n timp ce mari ntinderi geografice se transform n sigure piee de desfacere, n zone de influen31. Pe ansamblu, LOGISTICA integreaz ntr-un tot unitar interaciunea dintre elementele active i pasive ale produciei, care constituie o succesiune ordonat ce vizeaz specializarea n munc, dar i timpul i spaiul deplasrii fizice, lanul de relaii fiind subordonat scopului crearea de valoare. Esena LOGISTICII MODERNE const n gestionarea optim a fluxurilor de informaii i de materiale n amonte, n procesul transformrii, precum i n aval de firm, n procesul distribuiei fizice de bunuri i servicii, n condiii de competitivitate. Astfel, LOGISTICA devine o component important a culturii organizaionale, un sistem managerial performant, prin care firma este integrat, dup principii de eficien i de eficacitate, ntr-un mediu ambiant tot mai competitiv. Bibliografie selectiv Arnold, J.R. Tony, Chapman, stephen N., Introduction to Materials Management, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2003 Blan, C., Logistica, Editura Uranus, Bucureti, 2006 Crstea, G., Asigurarea i gestiunea resurselor materiale. Marketingul aprovizionrii, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2000 Dima, I.C., coordonator, Managementul logistic, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic, Bucureti, 1996 Druker, P., The Practice of Management, London, Heineman, 1955 Gattorna, John, coordonator, Managemntul logisticii i distribuiei, Editura Teora, Bucureti, 1999 Philip, kotler, Armstrong, G., Principiile marketingului, Editura Teora, Bucureti, 2005 Udrescu, Mircea, Managementul vnzrilor, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2012.
31
Ibidem, p.310.
147
Raportul dintre cifra de afaceri si personalul din IMMModel de analiz

Lect.univ.dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA Universitatea Artifex Bucure ti florin.lilea@gmail.com Asist.univ.drd. Raluca Mariana DRAGOESCU Universitatea Artifex Bucure ti dragoescuraluca@gmail.com Drd. Georgeta BARDAU Academia de Studii Economice, Bucure ti georgeta.lixandru@yahoo.com Abstract Statistical characterization of the SMEs sector contribution to the development of the national economy involves the calculation and analysis of some adequate indicators (enterprises number, occupied population, turnover, investments volume etc.) The analysis of the model proposed in this study, aims to highlight some qualitative aspects of SMEs activity, per total and regional structure, using an intermediate indicator that is between results and resources that is the ratio between the amount of turnover and the staff engaged in these establishments. Key words: turnover, personnel, development regions, statistical analisys, regional hierarchy JEL classification: C40, F63, R12, Y10
Mrimea indicatorilor absolui pe total implicai n calcul (cifra de afaceri i numrul de personal) s-a obinut ca sum a acestora din industrie, construcii, comer i servicii ctre populaie, date extrase din publicaiile statistice n domeniu. Avnd n vedere faptul c ne-am propus s efectum analiza la nivelul unui an (2011) am considerat cifra de afaceri n preuri curente (preurile comparabile fiind justificate n cazul studierii unui fenomen n dinamic)1. Pe baza datelor din tabelul 1 se pot evidenia o serie de concluzii privind eficiena activitii populaiei ocupate pe regiuni i pe total.
Raluca Andreea Mihalache, Ctlin Deatcu Utilizarea metodelor econometrice n analiza trecerii de la soldul bugetar la sursele de finanare, Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary Octav Onicescu, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 3/2011, pp. 103-106
148
Astfel, n toate cazurile regiunea Bucuresti-Ilfov se detaeaza net de celelalte apte regiuni, aici nregistrndu-se cel mai bun raport ntre cifra de afaceri i personal. De fapt, se observ ca n toate cazurile nivelul indicatorului analizat pe tar este devansat doar de aceast regiune. La polul opus se situeaz regiunea Sud-Vest Oltenia care se afl pe ultimul loc n trei din cele patru domenii de activitate. Pe regiuni situaia se prezint astfel: ntreprinderile de comer, n toate cazurile realizeaz cele mai mari valori ale acestui indicator dar se constat variaii mici ale acestuia ntre cele sapte regiuni; Tabelul 1. Repartiiile regionale ale raportului dintre cifra de afaceri i numrul de salariai din IMM pe total i pe activitati, n anul 2011 n preuri curente (mii lei/persoan)
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic al Romniei 2012, Tabelele 15.20 -
i 15.22
pe locul 2 se situeaz ntreprinderile din industrie care realizeaz valori ale indicatorului mai mari decat n activitatea de construc ii -care deine locul 3-, att pe total ct i n majoritatea regiunilor. n construc ii se observ c n cazul IMM n cele apte regiuni acest raport prezint valori apropiate i usor diminuate fa de cele din industrie. Excepie de la aceast regul fac regiunile Nord-Est i Vest. O meniune interesant ar fi i aceea c regiunea Sud-Vest Oltenia ocup un surprinzator loc 3 fa de locul 7 (n industrie) i locul 6 (pe total); n ceea ce priveste IMM prestatoare de servicii indicatorul analizat a nregistrat cele mai mici valori, comparativ cu celelalte activiti. Mrimea indicatorului analizat se situeaz i n acest caz sub media pe tar (126,89 mii lei/persoan) n cele apte regiuni, excepie fcnd i de data aceasta regiunea Bucuresti-Ilfov;
149
pe total se pstreaz aceeai ierarhie, activitatea de comer se situeaz pe primul loc cu o medie de 408,22 mii lei/persoan, urmat la mare distan de IMM din industrie cu 233,17 mii lei/persoan i construc ii (180,14 mii lei/persoan), pe ultimul loc situndu-se activitile prestatoare de servicii (126,89 mii lei/persoan). Informaii suplimentare putem obine dac efectum aceeai analiz innd cont de data aceasta de repartiia regional a IMM n funcie de mrimea lor. Aceasta cu att mai mult cu ct acest criteriu de grupare st la baza definirii IMM. Pe baza acestui criteriu, Institutul Naional de Statistic a adoptat ca definiii de lucru gruparea IMM n trei clase de mrime, n funcie de numrul de personal, dup cum urmeaz: microntreprinderi mai puin de 10 salariai; ntreprinderi mici ntre 10 i 49 salariai; ntreprinderi mijlocii ntre 50 i 249 de salariai. Folosind i n acest caz ca un criteriu de eficien raportul dintre cifra de afaceri i numrul personalului am calculat valorile acestui indicator pe clase de mrime (vezi tabelul 2). Tabelul 2. Repartiiile regionale ale raportului dintre cifra de afaceri i numrul de salariai din IMM pe total i pe clase de mrime, n anul 2011 n preuri curente (mii lei/persoan)
Regiunea 2011 Nord Vest Centru Nord Est Sud Est Sud Muntenia Bucureti Ilfov Sud-Vest Oltenia Vest Total Total Rangul 6 7 8 3 2 1 5 4 0-9 salariati 2011 Rangul 171,64 165,16 156,01 191,10 217,99 312,50 158,92 160,85 206,73 4 5 8 3 2 1 7 6 10-49 salariati 2011 Rangul 200,02 190,27 189,86 235,23 207,73 388,42 209,34 214,41 246,88 6 7 8 2 5 1 4 3 50-249 salariai 2011 Rangul 196,19 194,85 185,29 230,86 235,15 492,91 201,59 210,06 277,15 6 7 8 3 2 1 5 4
189,19 184,05 177,03 218,96 220,61 400,19 189,61 195,67 276,77
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic al Romniei 2012, Tabelele 15.20
i 15.22
Pe baza datelor calculate n tabelul 2 se pot desprinde o serie de concluzii ce vizeaz aspecte legate de dezvoltarea activitii IMM. Se observ c n anul 2011 pe total, n toate regiunile cu excepia regiunii Bucureti-Ilfov s-au nregistrat valori apropiate pe regiuni ale indicatorului analizat. Cifra de afaceri pe o persoan atinge la regiunea Bucureti-Ilfov valoarea maxim de 400,19 mii lei pe persoan, o valoare de 2,2 ori mai mare dect cea nregistrat n regiunea Nord-Est cu cea mai mic valoare i de 1,4 ori mai mare dect media pe total. De menionat faptul
c n celelalte apte regiuni valoarea raportului dintre cifra de afaceri i numrul personalului se afl sub media pe ar2. Interesant este i faptul c pe clase de mrime situaia ca tendin rmne aceeai, adic, la regiunea Bucureti-Ilfov se nregistreaz cea mai mare valoare a raportului iar la celelalte regiuni valorile se situeaz sub media pe ar. Dac comparm pe total valorile medii, constatm c n cazul ntreprinderilor mijlocii media este de 277,15 mii lei pe persoan devansnd media pe total de 276,77 mii lei pe persoan. La microntreprinderi i intreprinderi mici valoarea indicatorului analizat (206,73 mii lei/persoan, respectiv 246,88 mii lei/persoan) se afl sub media pe ar. De precizat faptul c cea mai mare valoare a raportului dintre cifra de afaceri i numrul de salariai se ntlnete la ntreprinderile mijlocii (492,91 mii lei pe persoan). Datele prezentate n tabelul 2 evideniaz faptul c regiunea BucuretiIlfov este n top n anul 2011, indiferent de mrimea ntreprinderii iar la polul opus se situeaz regiunea Nord-Est cu cea mai mic valoare a indicatorului analizat. Pe clase de mrime, au existat mici modificri de la o regiune la alta. Cea mai mare amplitudine a variaiei s-a nregistrat la ntreprinderile mijlocii unde diferena dintre valoarea maxim 492,91 mii lei/persoan la regiunea Bucure ti-Ilfov i valoarea minim 185,29 mii lei/persoan la regiunea Nord-Est a fost de 307,62 mii lei/persoan. De remarcat faptul c n anul 2011 la grupa ntreprinderilor mici, dac exceptm regiunea Bucureti-Ilfov, indicatorul analizat difer n mic msur de la o regiune la alta (de la 189,86 mii lei/persoan la regiunea Nord-Est la 235,23 mii lei/persoan la regiunea Sud-Est). Aceiai tendin de stabilitate a valorii indicatorului pe regiuni se ntlnete i la grupa ntreprinderilor mijlocii unde amplitudinea variaiei este de asemenea mic (diferena dintre valoarea maxim (exceptnd locul 1) de 235,15 mii lei/persoan nregistrat la regiunea Sud-Muntenia si 185,29 mii lei/persoan obinut la regiunea Nord-Est) egal cu 49,86 mii lei/persoan, foarte apropiat de amplitudinea variaiei pe total de 43,58 mii lei/persoan. Daca avem n vedere i rangurile pe regiuni observm c pe clase de mrime exist concordan deplin ntre rangurile situate la extreme (regiunea Bucuresti-Ilfov se menine pe primul loc n toate cazurile iar regiunea Nord-Est pe ultimul loc cu rangul 8). De menionat faptul c la celelalte regiuni rangurile difer nesemnificativ de la o grup de mrime la alta. n concluzie, se poate aprecia c dei s-au obinut unele mbuntiri pe linia eficientizrii activittii, se impun n continuare msuri de atragere a investitorilor strini, cu deosebire a celor strategici, elaborarea unor studii de fezabilitate pentru produsele cu care Romnia este competitiv i dispune de cadre
Anghelache, C., Anghelache G.V., Cruceru D., Manole A., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.PC., - Repere semnificative ale evolu iei serviciilor, comer ului i ale altor sectoare n ultimul deceniu n Suplimentul Revistei Romne de Statistic nr. 3/2012, pg. 120-127
2
151
calificate. Trebuie impulsionat procesul de creare a unor puternice i viabile ntreprinderi, care s valorifice n mai mare msur resursele locale din regiunile de dezvoltare ale rii noastre care se situeaz n momentul de fa pe ultimele locuri. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C. - Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2008; Anghelache, C., - Romnia 2012 Starea economic n criz perpetu, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2012; Lilea, F.P.C.- Analiza statistic a repartiiei regionale a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii n Romnia, Editura Ideea European, Bucureti, 2010; Voineagu V., Furtun F., Voineagu M., tefnescu C., Analiza factorial a fenomenelor social-economice, n profil regional, Editura RAMIS, Bucureti, 2002; *** Anuarul statistic al Romniei, INS, Bucureti, 2012.
152
Cu privire la conceptul de Management societal informatizat

Nicolae COSTAKE
ncp.costake@gmail.com
Abstract This paper describes the concept of IT-based Societal Management, pointing towards several models of the economic-social system, designed at various levels, and also emphasizes the differences between enterprise and social models. Key words: society, governance, information technology, model, enterprise JEL Classification: A13, M15
Introducere Societatea uman se afl ntr-o stare de criz complex, a crei rezolvare implic noi modele i demersuri, o situaie oarecum similar celei de acum cca. 250 ani, cu unele asemanari, precum: - progres tehnic si tehnologic rapid (de ex: TCI, genetica, explorarea spatiului cosmic fata de matematica, fizica,constructii navale, explorarea Terrei); - zorile societatii industriale fata de zorile societatii informationale; - cresterea decalajului dintre bogatie si saracie creind tensiuni sociale si capacitatea insuficienta a guvernantei existente de a face fata noilor probleme dar si deosebiri, precum: - criza demografica; - criza ecologica (de ex: cresterea temperaturii medii a Terrei, poluarea atmosferei, apelor si terenurilor); - criza resurselor naturale de tip zacamant a caror epuizare limiteaza durata admisibila a solutionarii (se estimeaza 25...50 ani pentru mai multe categorii); - capacitatea tehnologica necesara de perfectionare a guvernantei, dar si puternice interese pe termen scurt care se opun modificarilor, desi pe termen lung pot avea consecinte foarte periculoase pentru propriilor lor fiinte. In acest context, Romnia ofera exemple de scdere a calitii comportrii umane n mai multe planuri (de ex. mediile prezint evaziuni fiscale, coruptie, incompetente, ilegalitati, actiuni criminale de tip mafiot, precum si incompetente) Cele de mai sus pot sugera urmatoarele : a) evolutia economico-sociala a societatii umane globale este si rezultatul existentei unor invarianti;
b) a devenit evident ca guvernanta sistemelor economico-sociale (SES) nu utilizeaza suficient teoria sistemelor si TIC avansata. O foarte scurta prezentare a demersurilor actuale Literatura este foarte bogata, fi mentionate doar foarte putine lucrari, incepand cu carti romanesti si unele publicatii recente - Fota, D. Cum se ruineaza o economie nationala, ed. Universitara, 2007. Pune accentul pe dezindustrializare, importuri pe datorie si polarizarea societatii in bogati si saraci. Incheie cu necesitatea unei strategii economice pe termen lung - Bacescu, M., Bacescu-Carbunaru, A., Dumitrescu, F., Condruz-Bacescu, M: Politici macroeconomice de integrare a Romaniei in UE, Economica, 2008. O analiza complexa care. contine multe propuneri pentru strategia de dezvoltare a economiei romanesti (arata si importanta TIC pentru guvernare) - Masu, S.: Omenirea secolului XXI lea si guvernul mondial, Rao, 2011 .O analiza multilaterala a problemelor globale. 3ncheie sa nu lasam omenirea sa se sinucida(inclusiv un guvern mondial puternic si o guvernanta echitabila) - Daianu, D: Cand finananta submineaza economia si corodeaza democratia Polirom, 2012. O analiza de ansamblu acoperind problemele Romaniei, Europei si globale si sugerand demersuri. Contine si anexa Pietele financiare nu ne pot guverna - Constantin Anghelache, C,: Romania 2012 Ed.economica, 2012. O analiza statistica detaliata a evolutiei starii economice cu subtitrarea Starea economica in criza perpetua. Analizeaza si deficientele guvernarii si rangul mondial al Romaniei, ubliniind necesitatea unei integrari europene eficiente. - Lee Howell, L. (chief ed.):Global risks 2013 World Economic Forum, 2013. Estimeaza ca riscurile cele mai mari (probabilitate x impact) sunt: (i) nebalansari financiare cronice; (ii) criza apei; (iii) cresterea emisiunii de CO2; (iv) neadaptarea la schimbarile climatice; (v) cresterea decalajului veniturilor;.(vi) miscarea preturilor energiei si produselor agricole (vii) criza alimentara; (viii) esecul guvernatei globale (enumerarea nu reprezinta si o sortare) - Johnson, I., Jacobs, G.:Crises and opportunities: A manifesto for change The Club of Rome International Centre,2012. Criza globala se accentueaza pe urmatoarele coordonate: (i) ecologie; (ii) somaj; (iii) criza financiar-bancara; (iv) alimente;(v) saracie; (vi) accentuarea instabilitatii sociale. Demersul propus: (i) o noua teorie economica de natura sa solutioneze rupturile dintre productie si ocuparea fortei de munca, dintre economia reala si pietele financiare, dintre economie si ecologie; (ii) reducerea somajului (reducerea impozitarii muncii etc.) (iii) echitate sociala (0,1 % a populatiei globului poseda valori valori financiare echivalente cu PIB global); (iii) de la plurocratie la democratie etc. - Pregatirea programelor Growth and Jobs ca urmare a conferintei la varf G20 si UE de la Rio (2012). G20 a fost orientat pe minimizarea riscurilor pe termen scurt si recastigarea increderii pentru crestere (G20 Los Cabos Summit
Research Group G20 2012 Summit Information Centre - acces Google) UE a fost orientata pe (i) un cadru financiar integrat; (ii) un cadru bugetar integrat; (iii) un cadru integrat de politici economice; (iv) asigurarea legitimitatii democratice si raspundere a deciziilor (v Rumpuy, H.: Towards a Genuine and Monetary Union European Council The President EUCO 129 / 2, 2012. Pe scurt evideniez urmtoarele (i): preocuparea decidentilor si oamenilor de stiinta cu privire la probleme devenite foarte complicate, cu un consens pentru perfectionarea reglementarilor mai ales in sectorul financiar; (ii) recunoasterea pericolului polarizarii veniturilor populatiei (in dauna clase mijlocii); (iii) atentia relativ mai redusa cu privire la economia subterana (in sens larg) si la posibilul rol al tehnologiei informatiei si comunicatiilor (TIC) ca instrument suport pentru guvernare. Un model de nivel foarte ridicat al sistemului economico - social (SES)
Nota 1: Subsistemele colorate galben sau cenusiu sunt, artefacte. Subsistemul societal al populatiei cuprinde si artefacte. Sagetile negre reprezinta legaturi / relatii (interdependente) care pot fi de urmatoarele categorii. a) fluxuri: (i) de resurse naturale (RN) biologice: migratie umana, migratia altor fiinte, nasteri (sau echivalent), moarte naturala (biomasa moarta); consum de fiinte (biomasa vie) de catre fiinte (lanturi trofice), resturi, dejectii etc.; (ii) de RN nebiologice: aer, apa, minerale, biomasa moarta, energie, materii prime etc.;
(iii) alte materiale si quasi-materiale non- financiare: produse si servicii, deseuri, date, informatie, cunostiinte etc.; (iv) financiare: metale pretioase, moneda, bancnote, alte titluri financiare, moneda electronica, etc.; b) relatii logice: localizare, familiale, amicitie / inamicitie, proprietate, inchiriere, ierarhice (structuri), acorduri, contracte, datorii, creante etc.; c) servicii sociale: securitate sociala, protectia sanatatii,securitate sociala, educatie, instruire, apararea ordinei publice si proprietatii dobandite licit, apararea SES, asigurarea acesului la cultura, asigurarea necesara organizarii si functionarii SES justitie egala pentru toti, accesul nelimitat la informatia publica, inregistrare, certificare, arhivare etc. Nota 2 Functionarea SES se poate descrie simplificat astfel: a) In cadrul SES se formeaza automat cicluri (circuite inchise: b) Evolutia:SSRN este guvernata de cicluri fizice (de ex. ciclul apei), respectiv biologice (de ex. metabolism, reproducere, trofism) si este limitata automat de epuizarea resurselor inerte de tip zacamant respectiv de resursele de hrana. Inainte de aparitia omenirii, resurselnaturale se aflau in echilibru dinamic, deoarece ciclurile resurselor naturale inerte sunt conservative iar cresterea resurselor naturale vii este limitata automat de disponibilitatea hranei. Evolutia SSRN poate fi perturbata favorabil prin genetica, imbunatatiri funciare, de exploatare etc. si nefavorabil prin : modificarea sau distrugerea mediului si cresterea consumului peste capacitatea de regenerare (sau marirea intensitatii exploatarii zacamintelor conducand la epuizare). c) Aparitia omenirii (SSP), datorita inteligentei si posibilitatii gandirii abstracte si comunicarii, a capacitatii de a acumula informatie, cunostiiinte si experienta, precum si a simtului proprietatii si dezvoltarii sale, au modificat starea de echilibru dinamic global, prin productia de artefacte (produse si servicii inexistente in natura). Omenirea are capacitate de organizare in diversele categorii de comunitati sau organizatii precum si de a genera progres tehnic si tehnologic orientat pe: (i) reducerea efortului fizic si intelec-tual,(ii) diversificarea produselor si serviciilor (iii) marirea posibilitatilor si capacitatilor de productie, de depozitare, de deplasare, de comunicare (difuzare sau conversatie), de aparare si de atac, de reglementare si homeostaza, de acumulare de informatie, cunostiinte, bunuri si putere etc. Omenirea demonstreaza puterea imateriala: idea care sta la baza stiintei, culturii si artei, bunastarii dar si capacitatea de a distruge. Inventarea activitatii financiare, a simplificat tranzactia economica) si a condus la posibilitatea economisirii si creditarii (ambele cu dobanda), investirea in noi obiective, asigurarii contra riscurilor , crearea de organizatii specializate pe productia de artefacte cu adaugarea valorii etc. Se adauga si cicluri care cuprind resurse materiale (naturale sau artefacte) si artefacte specializate pe productia de artefacte, adaugand activitatile comerciale (productie, transport, depozitare,comert comunicare etc.), financiare (banci, etc.) si informationale (inclusiv educatie etc).
Productia de artefacte (PA) consuma resurse naturale (cu pericolul depasirii capacitatii zacamintelor respectiv capacitatea de regenerare a resurselor biologice (datorita lipsei unui circuit automat de adaptare la disponibilitatea resurselor naturale) si genereaza noi artefacte care sunt destinate consumului SSO (cicluri interne ale PA), sau SPS, SMS, sau altui SES (export) sau productiei altor artefacte) d) Cresterea complexitatii activitatilor umane si independenta lor a generat organizarea a doua subsisteme: (i) SSO, in care se desfasoara activitatile socio-economice ale agentilor economici financiari si nefinanciari si altor tipuri de organizatii specializate; (ii) SMS, cu misiunea de asigurarea activitatilor necesare evolutiei favorabile a SES. e) Activitatile SSO adauga valoare, din care se achita obligatiile financiare catre (i) furnizori (inclusiv populatia ocupata in SSO) (ii) creditori (de ex. dobanzi si rambursari pentru credite); (iii) SMS (obligatii fiscale). SMS redistribuie intrarile fiscale dela SSO si SMS si intrarile eventuale de la alte operatii ale statului si din servicii internationale pentru acoperirea cheltuielilor furnizarii serviciilor publice (inclusiv salariile functionarilor si plati furnizori si alte obligatii pentru functionarea institutiilor publice), plata obligatiilor internationale, platile asigurarii protectiei sociale, achizitiile si investitiile publice, subventii pentru SSO in interesul SES, rezerve pentru evenimente neasteptate etc. Fluxul financiar de intrare in SSP se reintoarce in SSO pentru plata consumului si investitiilor populatiei, economii (depozite bancare) si achitarea obligatiilor catre creditori si in SMS (plata obligatiilor fiscale si a unor servicii publice), achitarea unor servicii internationale si rezerva curenta. Se creaza astfel ciclul financiar major al SES, ale carui motoare principale sunt resursele naturale, consumul si investitile populatiei, stocul de cunostiinte al populatiei (asigurarea PPT) diversitatea productiei (consumului intern al SSO) si exportul (daca depaseste importul). O tendinta libera in SSO este consum individual nelimitat, acumularea de avere si putere. Activitatea economica poate fi considerata ca avand trei aspecte: (i) generarea, prelucrarea si utilizarea de artefacte fizice (de exemplu in intreprinderi); (ii) generarea de artefacte financiare (de exemplu de banci si institutii fde asigurari ; (iii) tranzactii (comert) de exemplu in piete sau magazine sau burse. Bancile asigura depozitarea de mijloace financiare oferind dobanda si credite percepand dobanda., Firmele de asigurari asigura plata unei sume financiare cazul intervenirii unui eveniment nedorit intr-o durata convenita in baza achitarii periodice a unei prime de asigurare. Economisirea, creditarea si asigurarea ajuta cresterea economica in functie de cerere (a populatiei, a productiei, a statului, a exportului). Productia de artefacte (PA) consuma resurse naturale (cu pericolul depasirii capacitatii zacamintelor respectiv capacitatea de regenerare a resurselor biologice (datorita lipsei unui circuit automat de adaptare la disponibilitatea resurselor naturale) si genereaza noi artefacte care sunt destinate consumului SSO (cicluri
interne ale PA), sau SPS, SMS, sau altui SES (export) sau productiei altor artefacte) f) Performanta SSO depinde in principal de: calitatea managementului agentilor economici, conjunctura internationala si mediul de afaceri national (care depinde de calitatea informarii publice, stabilitatea legislatiei, a vitezei de solutionare a litigiilor comerciale, capacitatea administratiei publice de a actiona conform interesului general precum si cresterea economica, inclusiv prin export etc. Perfomanta poate fi perturbata de (i) existenta economiei subterane care poate insemna si concurenta incorecta sau plata pentru protectie a unor persoane sau unor agenti economici; (ii) modificari neasteptate sau multiple a legislatiei; (iii) coruptia asociata datorita numirea in posturi de management superior de persoane incompetente in raport cu domeniul subordonat; (iv) Cicuite economice toxice, (iv) conjunctura internationala etc. g) SMS are un numar mare de misiuni, dintre care se exemplifica: (i) asigurarea cresterii economice si ocuparii populatiei in grupe de varsta activa prin:(i) propunerea si supunerea referendumului a strategiei dezvoltarii economico-sociale pe termen mediu si lung (inclusiv sustinerea societatii informationale); (ii) organizarea statului in baza strategiei (iii) sustinerea dezvoltariii civilizatiei cetatenilor (implica asigurarea educatiei performante si cresterea nivelului de trai etc.); (iv) optimizarea obligatiilor fiscale pentru maximizarea cresterii cererii si a productiei (implica cunoasterea starii, dinamicii trecute si tendintele evolutiei SES etc.); (v) mediu de afaceri favorabil cresterii economice (implica si calitatea si stabilitatea legislatiei, calitatea, rigoarea in sensul aplicarii egale si transparente a legii si a operativitatii justitiei; accesul la informatia publica; (vi) minimizarea pana la eradicare a coruptiei si birocratiei; (vii) protectia contra intoxicarii cu putere (implica un sistem de reactie electorala prietenos si sigur, libertatea presei precum si activitati de control economico-social (Curtea de Conturi) etc.) precum asigurarea informatiei statistice;(viii) evitarea numirii de functionari publici in pozitii de conducere superioara fara examen sau concurs a unor persoane care nu poseda studii superioare si cunostiinte de specialitate in domeniu si experienta necesara de ex.: conform fisei postuluiaprobata prin HG;(ix) asigurarea integrarii in UE valoarea NATO, (viii) asigurarea relatiilor internationale favorabile Romaniei (inclusiv managementul utilizarii resurselor naturale conform Constitutiei si realizarea valorii exportului total depasind valoarea importului total), (x) asigurarea protectiei si securitatii sociale si a proprietatii dobandite licit precum si implementarea sentintelor judiciare definitive si irevocabile; (xi) propunerea legilor necesare; (xii) apararea ordinei si securitatii publice precum si a granitelor SES etc.;(xiii) protectia impotriva incalcarii economiei de piata competitionale; (xiv) realizarea si implementarea platformei informatice (bazata pe interoperabilitatea sistemelor informatice a institutiilor publice) a managementului societal. Performanta SMS depinde de: (i) calitatea managementului societal in sensul organizarii functionale, competentei si performantei decidenti-lor si operatorilor, (ii) calitatea si cuprinderea informatizarii inclusiv furnizarea serviciilor electronice publice online accesibile de catre populatie si organizatii ,
(iii) transparenta informationala, (iv) calitatea democratiei, (v) capacitatea diplomatiei etc. Activitatea SMS poate fi perturba-ta cu precadere de: (i) lipsa strategiei nationale a dezvoltarii economico-sociale pe termen mediu si lung; (ii) lipsa infrastructurii TIC avansate; (iii) descentralizarea deciziei si raspunderii fara suportul unei baze de date coerente centralizate; (iv) performanta slaba a combaterii economiei subterane; (v) deficiente ale managementului financiar si al managementului riscurilor, (v) actiuni autonome ale diferitelor institutii publice, netinand (sau neputand tine) seama de interdependenta circuitelor economicosociale etc. i) Performanta activitatii economico-sociale depinde si de distributia veniturilor populatiei, generatede proprietati ale gospodariilor sale sau ale unor organizatii economice sau financiare din cad-rul SSO sau de retribuirea muncii prestate in cadrul SSO si SMS sau de protectia si securitatea sociala, care determina capacitatea de cumpa-rare a populatiei si comportarea sa: coruptiei, dezvoltarea organizatiilor de tip mafiot si, in general a economiei subterane, deci si scaderea veniturilor statului In particular, cresterea peste un prag a decalajului dintre populatia foarte bogata si populatia foarte saraca incurajeaza ile galitati de natura furtului si , crimei si poate creste tensiunea sociala pana la explozie, j). SES, subsistem toxic, a carui prezenta trebue minimizata pana la eradicare prin actiunile SMS, cu sustinerea SSO si SSP. Exemple de procese economico-sociale aferente SSES sunt: (i) evaziunea fiscala::= utilizarea unor imperfectiuni legislative pentru a diminua sau a nu achita impozitele si taxele datorate pentru averile, activitatilor sau sau tranzactiilor economice efectuate (inclusiv folosirea posibilitatilor oferite de paradisuri fiscale); (ii) frauda fiscala: (1)achitarea unei valori mai mici decat cea datorata legal utilizand documente sau alta informatie false sau (2) evitarea platii, prin ascunderea de averi, de activitati sau tranzactii care genereaza obligatii fiscale sau (3) obtinerea de restituiri a unor plati fiscale utilizand documente false sau productia ascunsa si/sau (4) achizitia si /sau vanzarea pe piata neagra a unor produse sau servicii ilegale sau (5) obtinerea de valori financiare sau alte valori prin amenintari, agresiuni etc. (iii) coruptia::= (1) plata sau alte avantaje transferate in afara legii unui functionar public pentru: realizarea sau nerealizarea sau devansarea sau devansarea unei obligatii de serviciu in sarcina proprie sau a altui functionar public, (2) realizarea de achizitii sau lucrari publice altfel decat prin licitatie conform legii, sau elaborarea caietului de sarcini pentru licitatie astfel incat sa favorizeze un anumit ofertant; (3) licitatii la care se prezinta mai multi ofertanti care insa sunt sub controlul aceluiasi proprietar; (4) numirea intr-o functie publica a persoanei proprii sau unui alt candidat fara examen sau concurs; (5) influentarea Parlamentului sau unei alte institutii publice pt generarea (sau amendarea) unui act normativ care favorizeaza activitati sau investitii prin contract cu agent economic privat etc.
Un model de nivel foarte inalt al SES SES este un element a unei structuri ierarhice: Cosmos => Terra => SES=> (resurse naturale, omenire, artefacte) fiind supus unor cicluri automate fizice cosmice si telurice. Structura SES cuprinde 5 subsisteme: SSRN (resurse naturale nebiologice si biologice) => adauga cicluri automate biologice (cel mai complex este ansamblul trofic); SSP (populatia cu locuintele si gospodariile ei) => adauga inteligenta care genereaza / consuma artefacte materiale; SSO (organizatiile nefinanciare si financiare) => genereaza: produse si servicii, adaugand valoare => conectarea la celellalte subsisteme si SES; SMS (institutiile publice) => asigura obiectivele, regulile, homeostaza, serviciile publice (inclusiv cooperarea internationala si apararea SES) => mediul afacerilor => calitatea managementului societal este un factor important al performantei economico-financiare a SES; SSES (subsistemul toxic al economiei subterane in sens larg) => minimizarea sa este un obiectiv al SMS In cadrul SES si intre SES exista foarte multe relatii: (i) fluxuri: resurse naturale, produse / servicii nefinanciare si financiare, de informatie etc.; (ii) logice: familiale,de proprietate,datorii, creante etc.; (iii) servicii sociale: educatie, protectia sanatatii etc. cu trei consecinte: (i) complexitatea deosebita a unui model realist => importanta identificarii unor invarianti; (ii) managementul societal performant implica o abordare holistica deoarece o decizie are atat consecinte directe cat si indirecte; (iii) descrierea SES si estimarea efectului probabil al unei decizii de management societal implica utilizarea TIC, datorita complexitatii deosebite. Model de nivel foarte inalt al intreprinderii
160
Sa evidentiem cateva diferente intreprinderii si managementul societal
dintre
managementul
O estimare preliminara a ordinului de marime al efectului economic al MSI in cazul Romaniei se prezinta in tabelul sintetic urmator: PIB / loc al tarilor membre ale UE, foste tari din sistemul socialist:
Sursa: Eurostat (2010-2011) *) corectat conform datelor preliminare ale recensamantului din 2011. PIB in preturi curente deoarece raportul PIB (PPP) / PIB (PC) creste sensibil cu cat PIB (CP/loc) este mai mic Exceptand Bulgaria si Slovenia (eliminarea extremitatilor) se constata ca PIB al Romaniei ar putea fi mai mare cu min. cca 30130%; Intrucat PIB/loc calculat in USD la nivelul anului 1990 arata ca Polonia si Romania au avut valori foarte apropiate, se poate accepta ca diferenta actuala de cca 50 % in favoarea Poloniei, se datoreaza in mare parte diferentei de management societal, care a facut posibila mentinerea cresterii economiei chiar in conditiile crizei globale. -
161
Pentru a avea o prima impresie asupra ordinului de marime a costurilor si veniturilor posibile prin management societal informatizat (MSI) se pot face urmatoarele ipoteze vadit exagerate (costuri mult mai mari si venituri mult mai mici): (i) orizont de calcul: 10 ani (ii) efectul maxim: 10 mld EUR / an (sub 15% din diferenta fata de Polonia) (iii) efectul cf. (ii) se obtine doar in ultimii 3 ani (iv) valoarea medie anuala investitii + exploatare (v) cost total: 1,5x 10 = 15 mld EUR (vi) venit total: 10 X 3 = 30 mld EUR (vii) beneficiu net: 30 - 15 = 15 mld EUR Concluzie: 1 EUR cheltuit genereaza min. 1 EUR beneficiu net incl.csuport tehnic...1,5 mld EUR /an (exagerare vadita) Invarianti economico -sociali Circuite / actiuni automate (i) Fizice. Unele pot fi utilizate pentru obtinerea de energie (de ex. energia curentilor de aer, energia fluviilor si valurilor oceanelor etc.) (ii) Biologice Supravietuirea individuala Supravietuirea speciei (iii) Specific umane Compotarea umana generala Aptitudini inascute (Buckingham si Coffman): (i) Manager (ii) Executant: - creator - operator Intoxicarea cu putere: atribuirea sau cucerirea puterii personale poate genera efectele: (i) credinta ca are intotdeauna dreptate (ii) sensibil la laudele subordonatilor directi => ei filtreaza informatie de intrare, generand o reactie pozitiva de intarire a (i) (iii) alege subordonatii directi dupa credinta lor aparenta => necesitatea democratiei participative => implica un sistem informatic electoral dedicat si protejat contra fraudelor Efectul de imbatranire: peste pot deveni 50-60 ani, managerii conservatori => instruirea continua devine strict necesara Cererea de PsS este functie de (1) categoriile de ,PsS si preturile lor; de distributia veniturilor populatiei precum si de (3) elasticitatea in functie de preturi, grupele de venituri ale populatiei / gospodariilor categoriile. Principiului progresului tehnic si tehnologic (PTT - ipoteza) (i) un produs sau serviciu (PsS) nou sau perfectionat poate genera o cerinta => vanzari
(ii) perfectionarea produselor PsS se face prin generatii tehnologice caracterizate prin modificari tehnologice (iii) PsS nou se bazeaza pe strapungere tehhologica (iv) un PsS de o anumita generatie se caracterizeaza printr-o cresterea rapida a costului deci si a pretului cu cresterea performantei precum si o perfomanta minima si maxima (v) de la o generatie la cea urmatoare: - la performanta egala costul deci pretul este mai redus - la pret egal performanta este mai ridicata - costul investitiei pentru trecerea la o noua generatie creste pe masura cresterii numarului generatiei (vi) strapungerea tehnologica permite un salt de crestere a performantei si o scadere a costului deci a pretului la performanta egala cu cea a ultimei generatii (daca este aplicabil) Rezulta: (vii) prima firma care introduce un PsS de o noua generatie sau de strapungere tehnologica are avantajul unui monopol temporar in cursul caruia poate oferi un pret mai redus pana cand reincepe competitia (concurenta fiind obligata sa urmeze liderul => PTT sustine piata libera competitionala (ix) in general, investita in C&D si echipamente tehnologice de productie cresc => productia trebue sa fie mare pentru a asigura un cost unitar scazut, => productia se concentreaza treptat la un numar relativ redus de firme, care se pregatesc si pentru strapungere tehnologica => este rationala colaborarea cu invatamantul universitar Modelul de nivel foarte inalt al SES Selectia managerilor in contextul managementului societal informatizat
163
De ce management societal? Managementul Societal nu poate fi o versiune a Managementului Intreprinderii (chiar al unei intreprinderi foarte mari), datorita diferentelor de obiective si structuri => stiinta managementului poate fi structurata in trei sectiuni: (i) bazele managementului, (ii) managementul intreprinderii, (iii) managementul societal (are sens numai informatizat MSI) Pentru Romania, importanta economica a MSI este covarsitoare. Foarte acoperitor, 1 EUR cheltuit pentru investitie si exploatare genereaza un beneficiu net de min 1 EUR.=> MSI apare ca un proiect prioritar pentru solicitatrea de fonduri europene prioritar pentru solicitarea de fonduri europene Exemplificarea unor probleme ale managementului societal in Romania arata necesitatea reingineriei administratiei publice bazate interoperabilitatea sistemelor informatice ale institutiilor publice, inclusiv pentru inclusiv pentru autoritatile legislativa si judiciara, precum si institutiile publice pentru informatia de reactie societala MSI presupune trei cerinte: a) o platforma informationala si informatica coerenta si sigura, , care sa permita descrierea proceselor economice reale in care fluxurile materiale si financiare sunt distincte precum si a circuitelor economice inchise care se formeaza automat \ b) elaborarea treptata a modelului matematic al SES, capabil sa pregateasca decizii de management societal c) asigurarea calitatii managementului institutiilor publice, pentru care s-a schitat o procedura 5. Evolutia SES este determinata si de un numar de invarianti, care sunt exemplificati. Cu tot caracterul anecdotic se poate accepta ca cel mai important invariant este continut in principiul stupiditatii realitatii: realitatea este stupida: nu poate intelege ordine; este inflexibila la dorinti si nu este in stare sa faca politica. 6. Introducerea MSI va rezolva si problemele capacitatii administrativeinsuficiente, remarcata in unele rapoarte ale UE precum si a lansarii de afirmatii sau pareri inexacte. Infrastructura informationala si informatica necesara MSI Conceptia UE: 1993: Raportul Delors: Crestere economica si ocuparea fortei de munca prin realizarea societatii informationala si a retelelor trans-europene 2000: Programul e-Europe defineste 20 servicii electronice (Internet) ale administratiilor publice ale tarilor membre in relatiile cu cetatenii (12) si organizatiile (nivelul tehnic maxim: plata electronica -in cazul serviciilor in care aceasta are sens) In paralel: realizarea retelei TESTA a Comisiei Europene (CE) la care se conecteaza, treptat, administratiile publice ale tarilor membre ale UE
2010: In baza strategiei anti-criza a UE, CE adopta Programul de eGuvernare 2011-2015 si Agenda Digitala 2020 care contin si adoptarea interoperabilitatii sistemelor informatice publice, inclusive la nivelul UE, servind cetatenii, organizatiile si administratiile tarilor membre. Totodata, CE a adoptat Cadrul European de Interoperabilitate. Interoperabilitatea permite reingineria administratiei publice, permitand realizarea de servicii electronice publice interinstitutionale pe baza utilizarii in comun a resurselor informationale si informatice => poate crea platforma necesara MSI. In continuare se prezinta sarcinile apreciate cele mai relevante din domeniul interoperabilitatii care revin tarilor membre ale UE, (in afara celor ce revin exclusiv CE) Un model functional de nivel foarte nalt al sistemului naional al interoperabilitatii (SNI)
Nota 1: standardele si procedurilor de management a securitatii informatiei, managementul identitatii si certificarii acesteia si managementul accesului la informatie se agreaza de catre secorul privat cu sectorul public Nota 2: date fiind implicatiile SNI, structura de organizare este de finita pe trei niveluri: (i) strategic: Parlament, Guvern, CSAT, BNR; (ii) tactic: MCSI, un corp ierarhizat de inspectori TIC (chief information officers)subordonat primului ministru, Consiliul de coordonare, (iii) operational: institutiile publice autorizate pentru crearea si intretinerea de componente ale nucleului de coerenta informationala, institutiile publice carere proiecteaza, verifica, elaboreaza, testeaza, instruiesc, aproba intrarea in exploatare, exploateaza, intretin, dezvolta, administreaza componente ale SNI, precum si consiliile tehnice si grupele de lucru colaboratoare (cu participarea si a firmelor TIC si de utilizatori din sectorul public) Nota 3: Interoperabilitatea este definita ca functionalitatea unor organizatii diferite de a interactiona pentru atingerea unor obiective comune ordonate sau agreate si reciproc avantajoase:
165
(i) implicand utilizarea in comun a datelor, informatiei si cunostiintelor in cadrul proceselor de lucru; (ii) prin schimb de date, informatie si cunostiinte intre sistemele lor informatice.. Interopereabilitatea are in vedere: (i) utilizarea in comun a resurselor informationalesi informatice ale sectorului public, pentru maximizarea raportului (performanta / cost) a serviciilor publice; (ii) dezvoltarea de noi servicii publice inter-institutionale pentru minimizarea poverilor administrative resimtite de populatie si organizatii (minimizarea birocratiei prin informatizare avansata); (iii) acoperirea tuturor nivelurilor de interoperabilitate: Modelul functional de nivel inalt al unui nucleu de coerenta informationala (NCI)
UN model de nivel inalt al arhitecturii tehnice a SNI
166
Un model de nivel inalt al organizarii instutiei publice in contextul SNI
SNI / MSI - comentarii si concluzii
Romania este in situatia de a recupera din nou intarzieri, de acesta data in domeniul Tehnologiei Informatiei, in speta cel al interoperabilitatii sistemelor informatice ale institutiilor publice. (Acest demers este urmat de toate tarile membre ale UE) \\ Fiind vorba de un instrument al reingineriei administratiei publice la nivel national, dar si cel al UE, este necesara o lege bazata pe documentele tehnice ale CE. Proiectul de lege exista la MCSI. (La finele lunii februarie 2012 era fina-alizat la nivel de min. 95) Acest proiect este insotit de un pachet de anexe teh-nice, pentru a permite mai buna intelegere a continutului. In 2011 s-a efectuat o culegere de date experimentala privind informatizarea institutiilor publice. Raportul care propune colaborarea cu INS pentru o dare de seama anuala cu acest obiectiv exista in MCSI din decembrie 2011. Exista deci o baza de pornire Pentru un avans rapid, sunt necesare: (i) din punct de vedere tehnic: (1) proiectarea si realizarea treptata a nucleului de coerenta Informationala (etapa SNI) (2) crearea unui centru de date (cu rezerva calda) care sa realizeze un punct unic de contact pentru utilizatori si de memorie centrala pentru informatia de interes general (etapa SNI)
(3) realizarea treptata a unei teorii a SES, baza pentru modele cantitative din ce in ce mai detaliate (etapa MSI) (ii) din punct de vedere managerial: (1) finalizarea si adoptarea legii interoperabilitatii (2) solicitarea si primirea unei finantari europene (argumentul de baza: proiect bazat pe gandirea CE (3) asigurarea structurii de organizare pentru SNI 4. Se pot defini 3 etape: (i - initiala); legiferare, organizare, finantare, initierea proiectelor urgente (vor folosi si la testarea solutiilor pentru NCI); (ii- SNI): proiectarea si implementarea treptata SNI, , precum si elaborarea modelelor a SES; (iii- MSI) conectarea treptata a modelelor SES cantitative la SNI Un model de nivel foarte inalt al MSI
Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti Bacescu, M., Bacescu-Carbunaru, A., Dumitrescu, F., Condruz-Bacescu, M. (2008) Politici macroeconomice de integrare a Romaniei in UE, Editura Economic, Bucureti Masu, S. (2011) Omenirea secolului XXI lea si guvernul mondial, Editura RAO, Bucureti Daianu, D. (2012) Cand finananta submineaza economia si corodeaza democratia, Editura Polirom, Bucureti.
168
Provocri majore n vederea dezvoltrii pe mai departe a statisticii oficiale

Prof. univ. dr. Ioan PARTACHI Academia de Studii Economice a Moldovei Prof. univ. dr. Liviu BEGU Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti Conf. univ. dr. Oleg VEREJAN Drd. Oleg CARA Academia de Studii Economice a Moldovei Abstract The official statistics faces multiple challenges in the current economic and social context, influenced by significant factors such as globalization, knowledge, climatic changes, data-related considerations, information needs of various user groups. Key words: information, indicators, GDP, progress, policies JEL Classification: C18, C10
Att piaa informaional, ct i statistica oficial, n calitatea sa de bun public, se afl sub presiunea cererii crescnde de date, confruntndu-se cu provocri majore. Utilizatorii necesit din ce n ce mai multe date integrate i dense, pe msur ce fenomenele evaluate devin tot mai complexe i interdependente. Sunt avansate noi solicitri de date, privind: globalizarea, dezvoltarea durabil, calitatea vieii, incluziunea social, mbtrnirea populaiei i migraia, cunoaterea, schimbrile climatice i protejarea resurselor naturale, eficiena energetic etc. Pe de alt parte, solicitrile diferitelor categorii de utilizatori sunt destul de specifice i variate n ceea ce privete volumul informaiei furnizate, nivelul de detaliere, operativitatea etc. Globalizarea genereaz provocri, ce trebuie asumate de statistic n materie de concepte, metode, dar i de standardizare de proceduri, procese de producie, concretizate n produse si servicii statistice noi. Impactul globalizrii este resimit n domeniile economic, social i de mediu, ceea ce impune revizuirea unora din conceptele statistice. Statisticile moderne privind conturile naionale au fost dezvoltate, n timpul i dup marea depresiune, atunci cnd a devenit evident lipsa acut de date coerente i msuri cuprinztoare, cum ar fi PIB-ul. De atunci, conturile naionale cu indicatorul su cheie - PIB-ul, au jucat un rol central pentru factorii de decizie politic i ali utilizatorilor de statistici, pentru msurarea progresului nregistrat de
naiuni. n mod evident, un indicator, dei cuprinztor ca PIB-ul nu poate msura totul. Multe aspecte ale bunstrii nu pot fi cuantificate numai cu ajutorul PIB-ului i, dei exist o corelaie ntre PIB i bunstare, indicatorul, n forma actual, nu poate exprima un coninut real al bunstrii, care este determinat nu doar de dimensiunea economic, dar i cea social, a mediului etc. Este o realitate necesitatea de a mbunti indicatorii i datele care vin n completarea PIB-ului, pentru a exprima progresul nregistrat n toate aspectele ce in de bunstare (sntate, protecia mediului etc.). Este necesar elaborarea unui cadru metodologic i operaional adecvat abordrii integre a problemei n cauz. Utilizarea msurilor obiective ale bunstrii necesit a fi suplimentat cu cea a msurilor subiective: satisfacerii de via sau fericire. Indicatorii subiectivi se bazeaz pe presupunerea c bunstarea depinde de gradul de utilitate pe care oamenii l percep n mediul lor social, adic felul cum reacioneaz i resimt evenimentele i situaiile din viaa lor. Cunoaterea a devenit o for motrice pentru schimbrile n societate i influeneaz toate aspectele vieii umane. Sarcina statisticii este de a conceptualiza, nregistra i, n cele din urm, de a descrie multiplele faete ale cunoaterii n form statistic: producerea cunotinelor, acumularea, evaluarea, stocarea, utilizarea, transformarea acestora n inovare. n strns legtur cu cunoaterea, se afl comunicarea, care s-a schimbat considerabil, din punct de vedere al modului, coninutului sau sferei de cuprindere. Astfel, este necesar revizuirea, de o manier coerent, a statisticilor privind cercetarea, dezvoltarea i inovarea, educaia si instruirea etc. Schimbrile climatice i protejarea resurselor naturale fac obiectul unor intense discuii la nivel mondial. Agenda politic face referire la poluare, n special cu privire la emisiile gazelor cu efect de ser, la consumul de energie ce trebuie eficientizat, biodiversitatea i conservarea resurselor biologice. Conturile economice i de mediu integrate ofer un cadru ideal pentru abordarea holistic a aspectelor privind mediul, a evoluiei economice si sociale, dar sunt si conturi specifice, precum cele pentru ap, transport i agricultur etc. Conturile de mediu furnizeaz date prin care se cuantific contribuia principal a resurselor naturale la dezvoltarea economiei, bunstarea i costurile impuse de poluare sau degradarea resurselor. Pe de alt parte, solicitrile diferitelor categorii de utilizatori sunt destul de specifice i variate n materie de volumul, complexitatea informaiei furnizate, nivel de detaliere, operativitate. Totodat, producerea de date necesare constituie doar o latur a problemei. Multiplicarea fr precedent a spectrului i a surselor de date disponibile duce la suprancrcarea utilizatorilor cu informaii, genernd dificulti n navigarea prin acestea, identificarea datelor relevante i evaluarea calitii acestora. Informaiile statistice nu au vorbit niciodat de la sine. Dup cum a relatat Alfred Einstein, informaia nu nseamn cunoatere. Asimetria perceput dintre informaie, pe de o parte, i cunoatere, sau o mai bun nelegere a informaiei, pe de alt parte, constituie o problem a ntregii societi. Apare marea provocare
pentru statisticieni de a contribui activ i eficient la transformarea statisticilor n cunoatere i decizii. n acest context, statisticienilor le revine misiunea de a explica datele, informa despre limitele acestora, ncadrarea lor n contextul potrivit, de o manier clar, pe nelesul consumatorilor, pentru a asigura o mai bun transparen a informaiei statistice i mai lesne de neles de ctre utilizatori. Condiia principal pentru ca datele statistice s fie utilizate este ca statisticile relevante s devin cunoscute, prezentate pe nelesul cercului larg de utilizatori i utile pentru acestea. Pe de alt parte, utilizarea statisticilor oficiale depinde de credibilitatea acestora din partea consumatorilor de date. Astfel, este important, pe baza producerii statisticii de calitate nalt i a comunicrii cu utilizatorii, de a promova educaia, cultura statistic, precum i credibilitatea statisticilor ca baz a utilitii nalte a acestora pentru beneficiul cetenilor i societii - sarcin major a instituiei statistice. Aceste activiti devin indispensabile pentru asigurarea prestrii serviciilor de calitate de ctre instituiile statistice. n scopul de a face fa acestei provocri, este necesar o abordare inovatoare din partea statisticienilor, pentru a evolua, de la doar "furnizorii de informaii" la "furnizori de cunotine". Prin urmare, activitatea statisticii oficiale nu ar trebui limitat doar la producerea i diseminarea de date, dar ar trebui s fie orientat spre asigurarea transformrii datelor n cunoaterea acestora de ctre toate componentele societii. Aceasta, la rndul su, presupune o gndire inovatoare, reorientarea utilizrii resurselor, o bun comunicare i cooperare cu partenerii, transformri de ordin instituional, o mai bun integrare n cadrul sistemelor statistice naionale i internaionale. n acest fel, statisticile pot deveni mai relevante i utile. Rezultatele studiului realizat de autori privind nivelul de corespundere a statisticii naionale principiilor stipulate n Codul de Bune Practici al Statisticilor Europene au scos n eviden faptul, c situaia din Republica Moldova este: mai apropiat situaiei din majoritatea rilor din cadrul SSE n ce privete: confidenialitatea statistic, imparialitatea i obiectivitatea. Situaia este favorabil viznd diseminarea produselor statistice, n special n ce privete promptitudinea, punctualitatea i accesibilitatea; mai puin avantajat privind: mandatul pentru colectarea datelor, n special accesul la SAD de calitate, relevante pentru elaborarea statisticilor; procedurile statistice adecvate i eficiente; sarcina de rspuns adecvat pentru respondeni; independena profesional; dezavantajat considerabil privind: implementarea managementului calitii i adecvarea resurselor. n rezultatul analizei comparative a disponibilitii statisticilor din domeniul economic n Republica Moldova fa de cerinele UE, reflectate n compediumul european, putem constata urmtoarele. Dei statistica naional a nregistrat progrese evidente n vederea alinierii la standardele internaionale, inclusiv la cele ale UE, mai exist diferene fa de cerinele compendiumului
European privind disponibilitatea, periodicitatea, oportunitatea i nivelul dezagregrii la elaborrii statisticilor naionale. n domeniul sistemului conturilor naionale, lipsesc elaborrile: estimrilor rapide ale PIB (elaborate n statele UE n termen de 45 de zile dup trimestrul de referin): conturilor financiare (realizate n statele UE anual), Tabelului IntrriIeiri (realizat n statele UE o dat la 5 ani), conturile regionale, inclusiv calculele Produsului Regional Brut (realizate n statele UE annual). Nu corespunde periodicitii practicate n statele UE elaborarea PIB prin metoda de venituri i conturile nefinanciare pe sectoare, etc. (periodicitate trimestrial n UE i anual n R. Moldova). Indicatorii-cheie prevzui la nivel european privind STS sunt disponibili n statistica naional, la termene avantajoase, n comparaie cu cerinele UE. Totodat, lipsesc statistici naionale privind deflatorul vnzrilor pentru servicii, precum i indicatorul similar pentru comer la nivel dezagregat - pe clase CAEM. O alt constrngere important la elaborarea STS naional o constituie lipsa informaiei privind autorizaiile n construcii, care, conform bunelor practici europene, servete o baz solid pentru realizarea observrilor activitii n domeniu. n domeniul statisticii energeticii exist goluri informaionale, precum i surse de date fiabile privind: preurile; consumul final al produselor energetice, n special, de ctre gospodriile casnice; energia renovabil. Statisticile naionale privind activitatea transportului auto i transportului feroviar sunt disponibile cu periodicitate mai frecvent (lunar) i n termene mult mai restrnse n comparaie cu cerinele europene. Statisticile pe grupe de mrfuri sunt mult mai detaliate n comparaie cu prevederile Regulamentelor Parlamentului European i al Consiliului nr. 70/2012 i nr. 91/2003. Totodat, lipsesc statistici privind: transportarea de mrfuri periculoase, transportarea cu nave fluviale dup ri, aeroporturi (baza de date), n domeniul statisticii turismului, exist, goluri informaionale privind statistica cererii turistice. Statistica naional este avantajat din punct de vedere al frecvenei i termenelor de elaborare a statisticilor agricole privind terenurile cultivate i producia obinut de unitile agricole. Totodat, exist goluri informaionale considerabile viznd: elaborarea balanelor resurselor i utilizrii produselor agroalimentare; elaborarea conturilor economice privind agricultura; statisticile produciei animale din perspectiva unitilor de colectare i procesare a produciei agricole; statistica produciei ecologice; structura i tipologia exploataiilopr agricole etc. Totodat, RGA realizat n R. Moldova n 2011 va permite obinerea datelor structurale pe agricultur. Analiza SWOT a scos n eviden punctele tari, punctele slabe, oportunitile i riscurile ce in de dezvoltarea durabil a SSN. n corespundere cu standardele UE, necesit a fi consolidat registrul statistic, sistemul de clasificri statistice, extinse metodele statistice moderne (a
172
observrilor pe baz de sondaj, ajustrile sezoniere, de colectare i procesare a datelor, etc.), optimizat sistemul de cercetri statistice etc. ntru adaptarea statisticii oficiale la cerinele informaionale ale societii n condiiile economiei de pia i la naltele exigene europene, n corespundere cu preocuprile i prioritile SSE, sunt necesare schimbri de mare anvergur, de coninut i de form, bazate pe: Dezvoltarea capacitilor instituionale, coordonrii i cooperrii n cadrul SSN i cu partenerii de peste hotare pentru promovarea eficienei i credibilitii instituiilor statistice responsabile pentru producerea i diseminarea statisticilor oficiale, n special: Aducerea cadrului legal n deplin corespundere cu CBP al UE; Perfecionarea coordonrii i colaborrii n cadrul sistemului statistic naional, prin: Crearea compartimentelor statistice n cadrul tuturor instituiilor cu funcii de producere i diseminare a statisticilor oficiale; mbuntirea colaborrii OSO cu mediul academic; Optimizarea structurii organizaionale a BNS n scopul consolidrii aparatului central i eficientizrii activitii organelor teritoriale de statistic; Instituionalizarea pregtirii cadrelor n domeniile statistice prin crearea unui Centru de pregtire continu a cadrelor n domeniul statisticii etc. mbuntirea comunicrii, relaiilor cu utilizatorii de informaie statistic i accesului extins i egal al utilizatorilor la fondul disponibil de date statistice, pentru asigurarea utilitii nalte a datelor statistice, n particular: Extinderea elaborrii i diseminarea larg a metadatelor (informaiei despre date); mbuntirea comunicrii cu utilizatorii finali; Crearea facilitilor de camer securizat pentru extinderea i securizarea accesului fizic la date individuale anonimizate, n scopuri tiinifice; Organizarea, pe baz regulat, a meselor rotunde, seminarelor pentru utilizatori privind utilizarea informaiei produse de BNS; Instituirea comisiei privind confidenialitatea datelor statistice. Renovarea sistemului de producie statistic i de diseminare a informaiei pentru asigurarea conformitii statisticilor oficiale cu standardele europene de calitate i cu nevoile utilizatorilor prin: Reformarea arhitecturii SIS, care presupune trecerea de la metoda tradiional de tip furnal (engl.- stove pipe) la sistem informaional bazat pe procese business; Utilizarea mai activ a datelor administrative i a altor surse de date statistice, relevante pentru producerea informaiei statistice;
Optimizarea sistemului de cercetri statistice pentru colectarea datelor care nu pot fi obinute din SAD, din sistemele de eviden contabil a ntreprinderilor; Implementarea clasificrilor naionale, ajustate la versiunile actualizate ale clasificrilor aplicate n UE (NACE Rev.2, CPA2008, PRODCOM 2011, CN2012); Perfecionarea registrului naional al unitilor statistice (RENUS); Dezvoltarea metodelor statistice; Crearea sistemului de management al calitii n corespundere cu recomandrile i bunele practici europene; Monitorizarea sarcinii informaionale asupra respondenilor. Lansarea studiilor respective, conform experienei avansate a statelor UE.
Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache C. (2008) Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic. Bucureti, Editura Economic Belostecinic Gh. (2008) Metode i tehnici de scalare n cercetrile de marketing. Chiinu: Editura ASEM Byfuglien J. Aplicarea i monitorizarea legislaiei europene cu privire la statistica oficial experiena Norvegiei. Conferina Armonizarea statisticii oficiale a Republicii Moldova cu standardele Uniunii Europene. Chiinu, 3 4 mai 2007 http://www.statistica.md/libview.php?l=ro&idc=223&id=2121 (vizitat 07.04.2012). Cara O. Implementarea Codului de bune practici al statisticilor europene n Republica Moldova. n: Revista Romn de Statistic. 2010, nr. 10, p.58-69. Voineagu V., Cara O., Dumitrescu I. Statistica oficial n societatea modern. n: Revista Romn de Statistic, 2010, nr.10, p. 20-28.
174
Sistemul decizional - informaional

Drd. Valentin BICHIR Dr. Drago BGU Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti Abstract: Information is a continuous target for the activity of economic organizations in business but also a weapon of great effectiveness for the benefit of those who have. The holding power of information and therefore has the ability to influence the course of events for their own benefit. Key words: information, business, economic organizations, decision-information systems JEL Classification: D83, L86
1. Caracteristicile informaiei Ca n toate celelalte domenii, informaia a devenit i n domeniul afacerilor un factor dominant, dar i un important element de concuren valoric o adevarat afacere de inteligen. n competiia economic se afirm tot mai mult i mai clar c cine nu deine informaii nu exist pe pia i nici nu poate concura cu ceilali competitori, fiind sortit e ecului din start. Acest lucru se concretizeaz n capabilitatea organizaiei de a obine informaiile necesare, suficient de repede, de a le prelucra i valorifica att prin decizii fundamentale ct i ca obiect de tranzacie comercial. n aprecierea valorii unei informaii, trebuie inut seama de mai muli factori al cror congruent poate urca sau cobor semnificativ valoarea unei informaii: Relevana decizional i concurenial a informaiei; Costul obinerii i procesrii; Nivelul de confidenialitate i de disimulare; Potenialitatea de utilizare i reutilizare; Raportul dintre necesitatea disimulrii informaiei i obligativitatea proteciei acesteia. Fiind n acela i timp, obiect i arm, informaia reprezint o int continu pentru organizaiile economice n vederea desfa urrii activitaii n mediul de afaceri dar i o arm de mare eficacitate n folosul celor care o dein. Cel care deine informaia deine i puterea deci capabilitatea de a influena n avantajul propriu cursul evenimentelor. n acela i timp ns, posesorul informaiilor poate bloca sau interzice accesul competitorilor la acestea, le poate altera i i poate induce n eroare pe ace tia n procesul elaborrii deciziilor ori altera, n esena sa, procesul de colectare, procesare, stocare sau diseminare a informaiilor. Prin toate aceste mijloace, deintorul informaiei i asigur
supremaia, adic sporul de inteligen i operaionalitate n aciune. n disputa pentru inteligen, care are drept obiectiv principal informaia, surprinderea poate fi realizat att prin supremaia cunoa terii, ct i prin operaionalitatea aciunii. Surprinderea este cu att mai eficient, cu ct constientizarea atacului de ctre obiectiv este mai redus. n consecin, pentru a deveni deintor de informaii i a prentampina atacurile informaionale, efectul direct al armei informaionale, sunt necesare elemente fundamentale de organizare, aciune i comportament, astfel: Organizarea presupune construcie i structur deosebite i specializare pentru culegerea, procesarea, stocarea i diseminarea informaiilor necesare activitii , pe de o parte, i de protecie a informaiilor i de contracarare a atacurilor informaionale, pe de alt parte. Aciunea vizeaz culegerea, procesarea, stocarea i diseminarea informaiilor necesare n afaceri, monitorizarea unor indicatori, ameninri sau aciuni (atacuri) precum i contracararea atacurilor susinute asupra propriilor informaii, aciuni, imagini i iniiative. Comportamentul organizaiilor trebuie s fie preponderent pro-activ i, att ct este necesar, reactiv; comportamentul proactiv se refer la rndul su la aciunea defensiv, ct i la cea ofensiv, n limita permis de etic i legalitatea afacerilor. n domeniul informaiilor, confruntarea inteligenei devine atotcuprinzatoare i se desf oar cu aceea i intensitate ca i starea de rzboi; de aceea, sintagma de rzboi al informaiilor n domeniul economic nu mai surprinde pe nimeni. n esen competiia inteligenei pleac de la informaii, se desf oar n jurul informaiilor, dar presupune o procesare de semantic i nelegere spre cuno tine, cunoa tere, decizie, conducere, aciune i rezultat. 2. Sisteme decizional-informaionale Apreciem c preponderena inteligenei n jocul cunoa terii d sens nlocuirii intuiiei i rutinei cu construcia raionamentului i procesrii informaiilor, precum i generrii cuno tinelor, producnd o mutaie esenial n structura sistemelor decizional-informaionale. Din acest punct de vedere, sistemele decizional informaionale pot fi caracterizate astfel: -Sistemul decizional informaional clasic este orientat spre procesarea de volum a informaiilor, fr procesare semantic sau de context strategic i ofer o informare incomplet i cu un anumit grad de aleatorism, neorientat pe proces, ci pe proiecte punctuale, nesistematizat i fra politic de nvare din eveniment. -Sistemul decizional-informaional bazat pe cuno tine (sistem expert) realizeaz o colectare de informaii orientate strategic, o procesare structurat, semantic i de context, genernd variante decizionale i chiar soluii bazate pe politica de nvare, adaptare i perfecionare. -Sistemul decizional-informaional bazat pe procesare inteligen i raionalitate, realizeaz o culegere selectiv de informaii, procesri primare, secundare i post eveniment, genereaz cuno tine i le structureaz acional, elaboreaz variante de decizii, dar i subvariante corespunztoare subobiectivelor, asigur o adaptibilitate operaional i capacitate de perfecionare i
176
deschidere, constituind n acela i timp suportul comportamentului proactiv i reactiv. ntr-o construcie acional, competiia inteligenei reprezint o activitate raional de procesare a informaiilor pe care le transform n cuno tine pentru fundamentarea deciziilor i desf urarea aciunilor concureniale n afaceri. ntr-o construcie constituent, competiia inteligenei reprezint un proces de concuren i schimb de valori referitoare la cunoa tere, procesare, raionalitate, analiz i decizie, o tehnologie de procesare i transformare a informaiilor n cuno tine, o activitate obiectiv de culegere, procesare, stocare i diseminare a informaiilor i de protecie a informaiilor proprii i a resurselor acestora, precum i un comportament proactiv pentru dobndirea i deinerea supremaiei informaionale n disputele cu concurenii, sau reactiv, pentru contracararea aciunilor informaionale ale acestora. 3. Trsturi ale competiiei informaionale Din punct de vedere managerial, competiia informaional reprezint un element organizatoric strategic, al crui obiectiv este asigurarea informaional a fundamentrii deciziilor i contracarrii atacurilor informaionale ale concurenilor. Ca o competiie n care incertitudinea este cel puin dubl fa de incertitudinea din mediul de afaceri, competiia inteligenei nu se poate desf ura la ntamplare, ci necesit o construcie eficient, strategie material proprie, sisteme suport i resurse adecvate obiectivelor stabilite. Desf urat n contextul calitii i securitii informaionale, competiia inteligenei nu se poate confunda n ntregime cu acestea, nu le supline te, ci le completeaz, le confer o alt dimensiune de dezvoltare i valoare, de eficien. Ca obiectiv managerial, competiia inteligenei i asigur necesitatea fundamentrii deciziilor, att strategic, ct i tactic sau operaional, atenionrii asupra pericolului atacurilor informaionale, tratrii evenimentelor nedorite, produse ca urmare a atacurilor reu ite i restabilirii funcionale dup producerea acestora, precum i a evalurii capabilitilor concurenilor i competitorilor din segmentul de pia pe care acioneaza sau de care organizaia este interesat. Ca paliere de aciune, competiia inteligenei i asum schimbul de valori de inteligen, generarea de inteligen competitiv i de cunoa tere, asigurarea cu informaii i protecia acestora i a organizaiei la atacurile informaionale sau bazate pe informaii i cuno tine. Pentru a inelege mai profund esena competiiei inteligenei, vom prezenta n sintez cteva elemente de definire pozitiv i negativ a acesteia, astfel: Competiia inteligenei reprezint i cuprinde: Un sistem expert de prelucrare raional a informaiilor, de generare, pe aceast baz, de cuno tine i de utilizare a acestora; Un mecanism de evaluare corect i obiectiv a propriei activiti i a competitorilor; Un instrument de avertizare operativ asupra ameninrilor i oportunitilor din pia;
O metodologie obiectiv de comparare a propriei activiti cu etaloane sau elemente de referin; Un suport decizional i comportamental att strategic, ct i tactic i operaional; O activitate susinut de integrare, adaptare, perfecionare i deschidere; Un instrument de lucru etic i legal, bazat pe inteligen i raionalitate,; Un nou model de a gndi i dezvolta afaceri. Competiia inteligenei nu este i nu poate rezolva: Un instrument de prezicere a situaiilor viitoare; Metodologia de cercetare a bazelor de date i de obinere de informaii din surse clasice sau electronice; Moda trectoare, tehnologia de senzaie, un comportament feti izant de inovaie i nnoire. 4. Evoluia competiiei informaionale Avnd n vedere valenele competiiei informaionale de sistem de analiz, procesare raional, generare de cuno tine i de combatere a evenimentelor nedorite, procesuale, informaionale i de personal, se impune ca fiecare organizaie s i asigure o construcie specializat pentru competiia inteligenei. Aceast construcie este cu att mai necesar, cu ct multitudinea i polivalena factorilor variabili concureni din mediul de afaceri se manifest mai dinamic i chiar turbulent i cu ct cele dou aspecte de generare i utilizare a informaiei strategice i de securitate a acestora devin mai complexe, mai sofisticate i impun o gam mai larg i mai ridicat de performane pentru operaionalitate. Subliniem c informaia devine utilizabil i se transform n arm numai dup parcurgerea etapelor procesului de conversie strategic, de la materie prim la cunoa tere i dominare informaional, pe baza unui suport real i dedicat de mijloace i fore specifice i adiacente, integrate procesual ntr-o construcie sistematic dedicat competiiei inteligenei. De asemenea, construcia este cu att mai necesar, cu ct decalajul dintre cererea de informaii i ofert se adnce te, fapt ce amplific incertitudinea n estimri i avertizri, n fundamentri i evaluri. Construcia competiiei inteligenei, ntr-o organizaie economic poate fi concretizat n 2 moduri: Constructiv proprie (strategie, structur, mijloace, fore i resurse); Achiziie de servicii de la o agenie specializat n competiia inteligenei. Construcia proprie are marele avantaj al integrrii strategice n managementul organizaiei, ceea ce i motiveaz interesul de performane i de operaionalitate. Este strict dedicat nevoilor competitive, avnd un nalt nivel de experien n domeniul respectiv, se integreaz funcional i relaional n
managementul organizaiei, poate dezvolta o reea de contacte i poate monitoriza permanent evoluiile de pe pia. Este strns legat de interesele organizaiei i poate contracara cu succes ameninrile informaionale, avnd o continuitate de comportament i o susinut activitate procedural i operaional. Ca dezavantaje ale construciei proprii, pot fi identificate unele dificulti n abordarea surselor primare de informaii, n pstrarea anonimatului n timpul participrii la aciuni de culegere a informaiilor, mai ales, prin corespondena cu alte structuri, precum i faptul c n unele organizaii mai mici nevoia permanent de competiie susinut n domeniul inteligenei poate fi mai puin necesar, rmnnd ns deosebit de costisitoare (mijloace, proceduri, speciali ti). Organizatoric, structura specializat poate fi integrat compartimentului de marketing al organizaiei sau celui de securitate a informaiilor, dar poate funciona i separat. Din punctul de vedere al speciali tilor, n structur trebuie s fie anali ti informaionali, colectori de informaii, operatori de proces sau de comunicare, speciali ti IT i n securitatea informaiilor. n ceea ce prive te funciile ndeplinite de construcia proprie pentru competiia inteligenei, pot fi evideniate urmtoarele : identificarea cerinelor competiiei inteligenei; defluirea obiectivelor competiiei inteligenei; realizarea elementelor i punctelor de contact; colectarea informaiilor; procesarea primar i structurat a informaiilor, generarea cuno tintelor i elaborarea elementelor necesare fundamentrii deciziilor; realizarea unei baze de date dedicate i actualizarea acesteia; elaborarea rapoartelor de expertiz i transmiterea acestora la cei interesai; monitorizarea indiciilor i ameninrilor atacurilor informaionale; identificarea vulnerabilitilor; evaluarea riscurilor; contracararea evenimentelor nedorite; analize post-eveniment i rapoarte de adaptare i perfecionare. Achiziia de servicii se realizeaz printr-o agenie specializat n domeniul competiiei inteligenei, dar numai ca urmare a unei construcii strategice proprii care cuprinde: strategia de necesitate; modalitile de identificare a problemelor; consistena i periodicitatea rapoartelor de expertiz; beneficiarii rapoartelor i modalitile de evaluare i utilizare a acestora. Avantajele si dezavantajele utilizrii unor astfel de servicii sunt urmtoarele: Avantaje:
Anonimatul prestrii activitii; Obiectivitatea; Experiena n domeniu; Profesionalismul. Dezavantaje: Angajare reactiv; Neintegrare managerial; Cercetare limitat dedicat; Indiferent de tipul construciei, eficiena competiiei inteligenei impune, pe lng obligativitatea strategiei competitive i : a.)Con tientizarea utilizatorilor produselor competiiei inteligenei pentru fundamentarea planurilor i deciziilor, pentru cunoa terea comportamentului competitorului, produselor, clienilor, preurilor, sectoarelor de pia, att n etapa de identificare, ct i pe timpul derulrii afacerilor. b.)Abilitatea de a folosi rapoartele de expertiz, care se realizeaz att prin pregatire specific, ct i prin practica utilizrii i verificrii calitii rapoartelor. c.)Abilitatea de studiere a competitorilor, care presupune ntocmirea, pe baza rapoartelor de expertiz, a unor fi e de performane care pot oferi o imagine complet a comportamentului acestora. d.)Deprinderea de a obine i utiliza informaii numai n conformitate cu etica afacerilor i prevederile legale n materie. n ceea ce prive te calitatea activitii construciei competiiei inteligenei, se apreciaz c aceasta trebuie s respecte cel puin urmtoarele principii : a.)Continuitatea presupune culegerea informaiilor tot timpul (constant), la intensitatea de performan stabilit, fr a exclude concentrarea eforturilor n perioadele n care apar nevoi stringente de analiz i evaluare a unor competitori sau de elaborare a unor planuri sau strategii de afaceri. b.)Investiiile pe termen ndelungat trebuie s acopere timpul minim de implementare a programelor de analiz, de realizare a rapoartelor de expertiz i de elaborare a fi elor pentru competitori. c.)Implicarea tuturor elementelor i factorilor care pot contribui la culegerea informaiilor, la analiza, la evaluarea rapoartelor i la elaborarea fi elor pentru competitor. n afara aspectelor subliniate, se impune pentru eficiena construciei competiiei, asigurarea ntr-o organizaie, a culturii bazate pe competiia inteligenei, nsoit i aplicat de ntregul personal al organizaiei, n vederea dobndirii abilitilor de utilizare a rezultatelor acesteia i de realizare a unor reele umane i mecanisme mixte capabile s faciliteze fluxul de informaii, valorificarea cunoa terii, evaluarea obiectiv, securitatea informaiilor i activitilor proprii. 5. Experi n competiia informaional Deoarece competiia reprezint un domeniu profesional considerat de excepie ca raionalitate i inteligen, este de la sine ineles c nu se poate desf ura dect cu experi n domeniu, care trebuie s asigure:
Culegerea informaiilor; Analiza i procesarea primar i structural a acestora; Operaionalizarea i utilizarea suportului IT; Diseminarea rapoartelor i evaluarea rezultatelor; Securitatea informaiilor i aciunilor proprii. Fiecare element al sistemului competiiei inteligenei impune o tehnologie procesual i integratoare, o sum de proceduri funcionale, de analiz i de evaluare plus speciali ti pe msur. Colectorii informaiilor sunt speciali ti n descoperirea, colectarea i localizarea informaiilor veridice att n medii clasice (cri, reviste, rapoarte) ct i n medii electronice (baze de date, nregistrri, imagini). tiina de a gsi informaii utile i veridice este complicat i dificil, dobndindu-se prin pregtire specific i prin practic ndelungat. De asemenea, este foarte important pentru colectori s i pregteasc instrumentele adecvate de lucru, s beneficieze de tehnica performant, s fie cunoscui i prezeni n diferite medii de afaceri, tiinifice, academice, mass media etc. pentru a- i ndeplini cu succes funciile. Colectorii trebuie s fie persevereni i s acioneze continuu, s manifeste curiozitate n a gsi rspunsuri la dilemele specifice, s aib capacitate organizatoric i de intervievare, precum i abiliti de comunicare. n ceea ce prive te comportamentul colectorilor, este foarte important pentru sistem ca ace tia s fie coreci, s prezinte realitatea a a cum este, s nu nfloreasc informaiile i s nu le completeze dup bunul plac. ntreaga lor activitate trebuie s se bazeze pe urmtoarele axiome: orice afacere las o urm de recunoa tere, orice organizaie, orict s-ar proteja, se manifest i deschis; informaia cautat este interesant i pentru ali subieci; pentru a valida o informaie, aceasta trebuie s provin din cel puin dou surse independente i credibile; cele mai veridice informaii sunt cele exprimate n logica negativ; este totdeauna mai greu s se colecteze informaii ce descriu, caracterizeaz un ntreg dect informaii dispersate. Anali tii informaiilor sunt cei care genereaz cuno tinele (analiza primar, structurat, comparaie, studiu de relevan, ordonare, ierarhizare, nuanare, studiu de context etc.), le confer atributul de informaie strategic i le organizeaz i sintetizeaz n rapoarte de expertiz. ntr-un proces de colaborare permanent cu colectorii de informaii, anali tii trebuie s prezinte capabiliti de selectare i calificare a surselor, s constituie i s gestioneze caracteristici complexe i imagini, s dobndeasc o bun nelegere a problematicilor studiate, iniiativ, intuiie, curiozitate, perseveren, simt etic i legal i sa dea dovad de loialitate i sinceritate. Cultura competiiei inteligenei, orientarea strategic, capabilitile de a aciona n condiii de incertitudine, inteligen creativ, simul realitii i rspunderii sunt alte caliti i deprinderi pe care un analist trebuie s le posede obligatoriu.
Coordonatorii de sistem organizeaz activitatea n sistemul competiiei inteligenei, fiind n acela i timp o dubl interfa cu conducerea organizaiei i cu utilizatorii rapoartelor de expertiz. n calitatea lor de manageri de proces, coordonatorii competiiei inteligenei trebuie s fie creativi, adaptai la mediul concurenial i la aciunile n condiii de incertitudine, s fie deosebit de intreprinzatori n obinerea soluiilor i deosebit de ponderai i reali ti n susinerea adevrului, s lupte pentru impunerea soluiilor, dar s nu le impun arbitrar. 6. Tehnici i metode ale competiiei informaionale Conform celor prezentate se pot evidenia urmtoarele tehnici i metode de construcie a soluiilor competiiei informaionale: tehnica benchmarking; tehnica quearter-back; metoda war room; metoda schimbului de locuri; metoda riscului informaional; sisteme expert. Tehnica BENCHMARKING Tehnica BENCHMARKING presupune compararea rezultatelor diferiilor competitori i cuprinde urmatoarele etape: identificarea problematicii de studio: se realizeaz prin stabilirea denumirii, domeniului de interes i principalelor variabile; parametrii de performan: valori, costuri, operaionalitate, servicii sau produse, satisfacie, venituri, eficien etc.; identificarea etaloanelor: presupune gsirea celor mai bune n domeniu i identificarea performanelor acestora; n urma identificrii (sau evalurii) performanelor se realizeaz imaginea etalon la care se raporteaz, pentru comparaie, ceilali competitori; culegerea informaiilor; analiza completitudinii informaiilor colectate i continuarea culegerii dac imaginea descris de acestea nu este complet; analiza performanelor obinute i predicionarea dinamicii viitoare a competitorilor analizai. Tehnica QUARTERBACK Tehnica QUARTERBACK se concretizeaz ntr-o abordare sistemica a colectrii de informaii la conferine, seminarii, expoziii, simpozioane, ateliere etc. Culegerea informaiilor este facilitat de concentrarea deosebit de speciali ti, de dezbaterile i confruntrile tiinifice sau acionale, de multitudinea documentaiei, pliantelor, imaginilor etc. Principalul atu al culegerii de date n astfel de situaii l constituie confruntarea tiintific, considerat de fapt o autentificare a informaiilor prezentate i, deci, o garantare a veridicitii acestora.
Aspectul principal al culegerii informaiilor n astfel de situaii se refer la ncadrarea n strategia general de competiie a inteligenei, precum i la sistemica culegerii informaiilor. n acest fel, se realizeaz o dubl comparare viznd informaiile despre mai multe organizaii din acela i domeniu, pe de o parte, precum i informaiile despre aceea i organizaie n diferite intervale de timp, pe de alt parte. Metoda WAR ROOM Metoda teatrului de confruntare presupune att organizarea unei locaii tehnice (fizic sau virtual), ct i o pregtire intens pentru confruntarea bazat pe sisteme expert sau programe complexe concentrate ntr-o zon sau pe o problematic (domeniu) de confruntare. Dac problema confruntrii pe zone, domenii sau problematici (n teritoriu) este deosebit de complex, noi ne vom referi pentru a nteleg, n economia lucrrii doar la spiritul locaiei de confruntare. War Room sau Data Room sunt locaii pregtite special pentru confruntare, n care se concentreaz informaiile necesare i se instaleaz mijloace i programe specifice confruntrii. O astfel de locaie poate fi pregatit pentru o perioad nedefinit (sau pentru evenimente de tipul planificare strategic, fuziune i achiziii, dezvoltri de noi produse, campanii promoionale sau media etc.) Locaiile pentru confruntare, ca i teatrele cu aceea i destinatie, trebuie s dispun de fore umane, tehnic i programe, astfel nct s poat : obine i procesa informaii; permite concentrarea i analiza informaional; asigura o mare acoperire informaional; facilita munca n echip a speciali tilor; anticipa evenimentele; asigura msuri eficiente de securitate. Metoda schimbului informaional De multe ori, pentru a inelege imaginea unui competitor trebuie s te situezi n locul acestuia, s vezi cum gnde te, cum simte, cum se comport i mai ales n competiia inteligenei, cum raioneaz. Cea mai direct cale de a te situa n locul competitorului este s-i ntelegi scopurile. Scopurile reprezint aspecte mai tangibile dect personalitatea acestuia, de aceea rspunsul la ntrebrile: Ce anume ncearc s realizeze competitorul? Cum i define te acesta succesul? reprezint o prim treapt a transferului de personalitate. Scopurile sunt elemente care nlesnesc cunoa terea raionalitii competitorului i reprezint o transferabilitate pe un palier static. Pentru a completa acest lucru, este necesar i cunoa terea comportamentului acestuia, deci supoziiile, credinele i modalitile de aciune derivate, ale acestuia.
183
Cum este privit? Care este aprecierea proprie? Cum acioneaz n mediu? Iat 3 ntrebari la care rspunsurile asigur a doua treapt a transferabilitii de personalitate. Conform aprecierilor lui Michael Porter din Strategia Afacerilor, metoda schimburilor de locuri sau a transferabilitii de personalitate, se bazeaz pe rspunsurile la patru ntrebri: Ce urmeaz s fac competitorul? Care sunt opiunile proprii? Cum va reaciona competitorul? Ct de eficient va fi reacia competitorului? Metoda riscului informaional n climatul de concuren economic acerb, analiza de risc trebuie s fie o component fundamental a managementului organizaiilor, orientat att pe situaii dinamice normale, ct i mai ales pe situaii de criz (turbulene). Structurile de securitate ale organizaiilor trebuie s fac fa atacurilor de imagine, dezinformrii, inducerii n eroare, discreditrii i atacurilor financiare. n aceste condiii, structurile de protecie trebuie s fie permanent operaionale, capabile s prevad i s contracareze atacurile att dintr-o poziie de defensiv (de reacie) ct i dintr-o poziie ofensiv (proactiv). Cunoa terea matricei ameninrilor, vulnerabilitilor i a riscurilor reprezint esena cunoa terii i asigurrii operaionalitii organizaiei. Tehnici de proces Culegerea de informaii n sine, dar i procesarea primar i structurat a acestora impun tehnici specializate de proces care s asigure explorarea automat a unor baze mari de date i realizarea unor relaii complexe, pe seturi foarte mari de informaii. Tehnica Data-Mining (extragerea datelor) i Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) sunt unele dintre cele mai utilizate tehnici n domeniul competiiei inteligenei. Sistemele expert Fiind o activitate de analiz i evaluare, competiia inteligenei este larg implementat pe sisteme expert, reele neuronale, care posed proprietatea de a elabora ipoteze noi pe baza variabilelor din observaii anterioare, perfecionndu-se ntr-un process de nvare continu. 6. Domenii, produse i sarcini ale competiiei informaionale Domeniile, procesele i serviciile competiiei informaionale sunt pe larg definite. Obiectivele competiiei inteligenei sunt: realizarea imaginii reale a competitorilor pe pia; obinerea sau meninerea unui avantaj concurenial fa de competitor; anticiparea aciunilor i deciziilor competitorilor; identificarea ameninrilor, evaluarea vulnerabilitilor i determinarea riscurilor n competiia de pia;
perfecionarea strategiilor de producie i de promovare; adoptarea celor mai bune decizii de operaionalitate i securitate. Domeniile n care se concentreaz serviciile de competiie a inteligenei sunt: Dintre urmtoarele: evoluia mediului concurenial; structura pieei i perspectivele evoluiei acesteia; cerinele i nevoile clienilor; competitorii actuali i poteniali; noile tehologii, produse i servicii; evoluia mediului social, politic i legislativ; securitatea oganizaiei. produsele i serviciile competiiei inteligenei se pot enumera
analize de risc; profil competitor; monitorizare aciuni competitori studii de caz; instruire i tehnici de marketing; consiliere n securitate i confruntare informaional analize comparative; aplicaii diverse ale inteligenei competitive, resurse umane, proprietate intelectual, calitate, securitate, securitatea muncii, costuri. n linii mari putem sintetiza cteva puncte de vedere: INFORMATIONAL COMPETITIVE (IC) este un fenomen (domeniu tiintific) asociat mediului de afaceri, care determin un nou mod de a gndi n afaceri bazat pe analize informaionale complexe, capabile s asigure o fundamentare riguroas a deciziilor i aciunilor. Asocierea sintagmei competiia informaional are la baz ideea de a ateniona asupra elementului principal al noii confruntri economice inteligena i informaia att ca suport, ct i ca valoare de schimb. Prin procesri succesive, primare i structurate, informaiei (ca materie prim a procesului afacerilor) i se confer o nou valoare (calitate) strategic. Utilizarea informaiilor strategice n procesul afacerilor impune organizaiilor o construcie special i specializat. Valoarea unei informaii este dat de relevana sa, costul obinerii sau procesrii, potenialitatea de utilizare i raportul dintre necesitatea disimulrii i cea a proteciei. Elementul definitoriu al succesului n competiia inteligenei l constituie suprinderea care se poate realiza prin c tigarea
supremaiei informaionale i contracararea atacurilor competitorilor. Elementele confruntrii informaionale se concretizeaz n organizare, aciune i comportament. Mutaia principal pe care o determin confruntarea informaionala (deci, i competiia inteligenei) este de la informaie, la cuno tine, respectiv de la procesare primar, la procesarea structurat i bazat pe raionament. Competiia informaional: n construcie acional reprezint o activitate raional i de procesare a informaiilor i transformarea acestora n cuno tine pentru fundamentarea deciziilor; n construcie constituena reprezint un proces de concuren i schimb de valori, o tehnologie de conversie a informaiilor n construcie, o activitate obiectival de culegere i procesare a informaiilor, precum i un comportament pro-activ previzionar i reactiv necesar din punct de vedere managerial reprezint un element organizatoric strategic. Competiia informaional poate fi concretizat prin sisteme expert, mecanisme de evaluare, instrumente de avertizare, metodologii de comparare, supori decizionali, activiti de integrare. Construcia competiiei informaionale se concretizeaz printr-o construcie proprie sau prin achiziionarea de servicii de la agenii specializate. Eficiena competiiei informaionale impune existena unei strategii competitive, con tientizarea utilizatorilor, abilitatea de a folosi rapoartele de expertiz, abilitatea de studiere i evaluare a competitorilor i deprinderea de a obine i utiliza informaii, respectnd etica profesional i legislaia n materie. Ca domeniu specializat, competiia informaional impune speciali ti care s asigure colectarea informaiilor (colectori), procesarea informaiilor (anali ti) i coordonarea procesului (coordonatori-manageri). Principalele tehnici i metode din domeniul competiiei informaionale sunt: tehnica BENCHMARKING (tehnica comparaiei), tehnica Quarterback (supraveghere sistematic, metoda War ROOM (teatrului de confruntare), metoda schimbului de locuri, metoda riscului informaional, tehnici de process, sisteme expert. Obiectivele competiiei informaionale sunt: realizarea imaginii reale a competitorilor pe pia, obinerea sau meninerea unui avantaj competitiv fa de competitor, identificarea ameninrilor, evaluarea vulnerabilitilor i determinarea riscurilor n competiia pe pia, perfecionarea strategiilor de producie i de
186
promovare, adoptarea celor mai bune decizii de operaionalitate i securitate. Domeniile competiiei informaionale sunt: evoluia mediului concurenial, structura pieei i perspectivele evoluiei acesteia, cerinele i nevoile clienilor, competitorii actuali i poteniali, noile tehnologii, produse i servicii, evoluia mediului social, politic i legislativ, securitatea organizaiei. Produsele i serviciile competiiei informaionale sunt: analizate de risc, profiluri ale competitorilor, monitorizarea aciunilor competitorilor, studiile de caz, instruire i tehnici de marketing, consiliere n securitate i confruntare informaional, analize comparative.
Bibliografie selectiv Andrei Shoumikhin, Deterring Terrorism: Russian Views, National Institute for Public Policy, USA, 2004, p.1 disponibil la: http:// nipp.org/ Adobe/ Russian% 20Web% 20Page/Februar%20we bpage.pdf Baumard Philippe, Seeking National Competitive Advantages Through Knowledge Strategies, 1993. Brod S., Competitive Intelligence. Harvesting Information to Compete and Market Intelligently, Camares Communications, New Jersey, 1999. Govoreanu A. et al, Competitive Intelligence, Studies in Business and Economics, Volume 5, 2010, P: 101-107. Lefter V. i Gavrila T., Managementul Organizaiilor, Ed. economic, Bucureti. Maior G. C., Incertitudine-Gndire strategic i relaii internaionale n secolul 21, Bucureti, Rao Internaional, 2009. Rothberg, Helen N. i Erikson, G. Scott, From Knowledge to Intelligence. Creating competitive advantage in the next economy, 2005. Rusu, M., Competitive Intelligence ? The Key To Success, Volume 5, 2011, P: 514-518. Wiig Karl, People-focused Knowledge Management. How effective decision leads to corporate success, 2004.
187
Evoluia investiiilor strine n Romnia pn la sfritul anului 2012 i impactul asupra creterii economice
Conf. univ. dr. Cristian SOCOL Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Prof. univ. dr. Constantin MITRU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Prof. univ. dr. Radu Titus MARINESCU Universitatea Artifex Bucureti Drd. Adina Mihaela DINU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti / Universitatea Cretin Dimitrie Cantemir Abstract Investment volume, even with strong economic crisis, domestic and international, has remained constant, with slight increases from one period to another, until 2008, when they triggered the crisis. Specific is that investment funds were directed to imports of machinery, ignoring the Romanian industry's ability to become, through refurbishment, competitive in the external market. Key words: investment, market, industry, evolution of investments, foreign direct investment JEL Classification: F21, G24
Cadrul general Rezultatele economico-financiare nregistrate de Romnia la finele anului 2011 evideniaz o cdere fr precedent. Unitatea indicatorilor pe baza crora se poate evalua, cantitativ i calitativ, evoluia economic marcheaz un trend ascedent fa de perioadele anterioare. Rezervele valutare ale Bncii Naionale au nregistrat o uoar creetere, fiind rezonabile la sfritul anului 2011, prin atragerea unei cantiti de valut existant la populaie. Un clacul simplu conduce la concluzia c, n prezent, se mai afl la populaie, nedepus n conturi bancare, suma de circa opt nou miliarde de dolari SUA. n condiiile n care exporturile nu se vor menine la un nivel ridicat, pstrndu-i trendul manifestat n cursul anului 2011, iar soldul balanei comerciale
va continua s rmn deficitar i nu se vor ntreprinde msuri atractive care s conduc la atragerea n conturi bancare a valutei existente la populaie, realizarea rambursrilor scadente n anul 2012 va fi ceva mai dificil, iar noi mprumuturi sau reealonarea plilor ajunse la scaden, chiar dac nu vor fi greu de obinut, vor greva eforturile de implementare a msurilor preconizate n programul de guvernare. Aceast ultim msur (obinerea de noi credite sau reealonarea celor scadente) va depinde de modul n care Romnia va aciona n procesul de integrare n Uniunea European va depinde att accesarea fondurilor europene, ct i atragerea de investiii strine directe, precum i de relaiile Romniei cu Fondul Monetar Internaional i Banca Mondial, relaii care sunt concretizate n acordurile de mprumut. Spre ilustrarea celor de mai sus, subliniez c din 1990 i pn n prezent s-a nregistrat constant un deficit al balanei de comer exterior. n circumstanele prezente, nu exist, practic, prea multe msuri salvatoare. Finanarea investiiilor reprezint una dintre cele mai importante etape ale procesului investiional, materializate prin stabilirea surselor de finanare1. Printre acestea: atragerea investiiilor de capital strin n Romnia ar fi una de dorit, dar nesigurana evoluiei economiei romneti i lipsa unui cadru legislativ coerent nu stimuleaz investittorii strini. n ceea ce privete redresarea economic pe calea investiiilor de capital, am menionat aragerea invetiiilor de capital strin, deoarece despre perspectiva creterii importante a capitalului real autohton este mai dificil de crezut c va fi soluia optim. n situaia n care s-a ajuns, nici societile private care apar consolidate nu vor mai putea s lanseze procesul de privatizare din cauza lipsei de surse financiare. Nu se poate recurge nici la credite n scop de investire sub form de capital, nu numai datorit prevederilor legale, ci i datorit dobnzilor ridicate practicate de bncile comerciale. n acest context, atragerea de capital i investiii autohtone i strine este o cale de evoluie real n orice situaie economic, att n Romnia, ct i n lume, i n Europa n special. Este lesne de neles c investiiile strine majore ar avea ca efecte: nlocuirea mprumuturilor la care trebuie s recurg Romnia; retehnologizarea societilor i regiilor autonome; introducerea unui nou model de management; asigurarea calificrii i specializrii personalului; folosirea segmentelor de pia externe proprii ale celor ce investesc, eliminndu-se astfel concurena extern; ridicarea calitii produciei i, nu n ultimul rnd, descentralizarea activitii i dezvoltarea economiei de pia. Detalii privind evoluia investiiilor Dup cum este cunoscut, renoirea fondurilor fixe, perfecionarea acestora, dezvoltarea de noi capaciti de producie dotate la nivelul cerinelor tehnoclogice pe plan internaional reprezint prioriti pentru orice economie care dorete s se
1
Cucu, V., Modele de fundamentarea deciziei de investiie, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2008, pp. 167
189
menin n echilibru i s se nscrie ntr-un proces constant de dezvoltare la nivel macro. n ri cum este Romnia, care s-a aflat n proces de tranziie ctre economia de pia, nevoia atragerii de investiii n domenii care sunt pretabile a se dezvolta este o necesitate obiectiv. Romnia, ca i celelalte ri est-europene, a motenit o dezvoltare industrial integrat n care capacitile de producie lucrau independent i asigurau, la un nivel calitativ mai mult sau mai puin corespunztor, produsele necesare pieei interne i un surplus pentru exporturi pe piee care acceptau calitatea produselor respective. Din anul 1990, a nceput un amplu proces de transformare a economiei romneti dintr-un super-etapizat ntr-o economie de pia. Ideea apare nu numai benefic, ci vital pentru asigurarea unei noi relansri a indistriei n Romnia. De la aceste intenii, pn la modalitile concrete prin care s-a ncercat realizarea n practic a reformei economice i privatizrii este o cale ceva mai lung. Ne amintim c n anul 1990 s-au omis dou ipoteze care, abordate n asocierea lor, dau o imagine global asupra nivelului economiei romneti din acea perioad, constituindu-se, totodat, n teze ale strategiilor de reform, restructurare i privatizare elaborate ulterior. Pe de alt parte, s-a vorbit despre agricultura produciilor record i cu multe alte aspecte criticabile, fcndu-se marele pariu cu agricultura. La douzeci i trei de ani dup lansarea acestui pariu, se poate constata cu mare dezamgire i ngrijorare crescut, faptul c acest pariu a fosu nu abandonat, ci practic spulberat de o realitate care face ca agricultura s fi regresat, din toate punctele de vedere (dotare, agrotehnici, rezultate, etc.), pn la un stadiu comparabil, eventual, cu cel interbelic. Pe de alt parte, despre industrie s-a afirmat axiomatic cum c ar fi o grmad de fiare vechi. Rod alunei concepii megalomanice. Acum constatm c aceste fiare vechi sunt i teribil de ruginite, fr ca n locul lor s se fi implementat ceva deosebit, n spiritul tehnicii sfritului de mileniu. Un alt aspect important, ce ar trebui avut n vedere de cei care au preluat destinele economiei naionale, l constituie necesitatea de a se continua, termina i da n exploatare investiiile aflate n curs de realizare la acea dat. Din pcate, n multe astfel de cazuri, lucrrile au fost ntrerupte, amnate sau sistate, inducnd mari pierderi att ntreprinderilor implicate, ct i economiei n ansamblu. Pe acest fond, evoluia investiiilor a fost diferit fa de alte sectoare ale economiei naionale. Astfel, ntr-o prim etap dup 1990, s-a remarcat o scdere drastic a fondurilor de investiii repartizate centralizat, germenii capitalului privat neputnd suplini golul lsat de ntreruperea activitilor i nealocarea de noi sume de la bugetul de stat n acest domeniu. Aa se face c, n primii trei patru ani dup 1990, s-a evideniat alocarea de fonduri pentru unele modernizri, capitalul privat axndu-se pe investiii n
domeniul retehnologizrii (n special prin importuri de utilaje i alte mijloace fixe n general) sau constituirea de capaciti de porducie sau desfacere de mrime redus. Desigur, aceasta este o caracteristic a economiei de pia, dar n acest mod s-au irosit multe resurse n cadrul proiectelor de investiii n curs de realizare. ntr-o a doua etap, se constat c resursele create n procesul privatizrii au fost direcionate ctre investiii, proces proces ce ar fi putut fi mai susinut n condiille unei legislaii fiscale mai stimulative. Pe acest fond, volumul investiiilor, chiar i n condiiile de criz economic puternic, intern i internaional, s-a meninut la un nivel constant, cu uoare creteri de la o perioad la alta, pn n 2008, cnd s-au declanat efectele crizei. Specific este faptul c fondurile pentru investiii au fost direcionate ctre importuri de utilaje, neglijndu-se capacitatea industriei romneti de a deveni, prin retehnologizare, competitiv la nivelul pieei externe. n aceste condiii, relansarea industriei romneti, a economiei n general, n contextul legitilor i cerinelor economiei de pia, nu numai c rmne un deziderat, dar se constat c nivelul de degradare, att a marii industrii, ct i ponderea superioar a investiiilor pentru mijloacele fixe, comparativ cu cele alocate construciilor. Principalele investiii realizate n perioada analizat au fost direcionate ctre industria prelucrtoare, industria electric i termic, agricultur i sectorul teriar (comer, pot i telecomunicaii, administraie public). Investiiile din sectorul public, a cror principal destinaie o constituie lucrrile de infrastructur, au fost orientate cu precdere spre domeniile de interes naional: energie electric, industria extractiv, industria prelucrtoare, dar i n domeniul potei i telecomunicaiilor. Se remarc ritmul de cretere n programe de interes european i ponderea accentuat a investiiilor pentru utilaje. Investiiile din sectorul privat, i ele n cretere, au fost orientate cu precdere spre achiziionarea de utilaje de transport, mai ales din import. n acest sector, investiiile au fost direcionate cu precdere n sfera teriar, n special n domeniul comerului. Evoluii cu efect asupra investiiilor Un exemplu extrem de semnificativ n acest sens l-ar putea constitui obiectivul programatic, de mare acuitate i actualitate, cruia i-au fost subsumate de ctre clasa politic eforturi, demersuri i decizii de sacrificiu, respectiv aderarea Romniei la structurile economice i politice vest-europene, respectiv la Uniunea European i la NATO. n contextul noii sitaii geopolitice i economice din Europa, aderarea la aceste structuri a reprezentat, chiar abstracie fcnd de tema, oricum hiperbolizat, a reintegrrii Romniei n Europa, un deziderat cu profunde determinri obiective, de natur economic i politic, la fel de important i de mult dorit de oricare dintre romni. Investiii strine directe
Anul 2011 a fost unul n care o serie de sectoare de activitate au continuat s se privatizeze, cele deja privatizate au continuat s-i sporeasc patrimoniul (capitalurile), prin atragerea de noi investiii autohtone i strine, aspect demn de luat n considerare din punct de vedere al efectelor asupra structurii economiei naionale. n aceste condiii, conform datelor furnizate de BNR, rezult c n 2010 valoarea total a investiiilor strine directe n Romnia a fost de 3.914 milioane euro, n 2011 a fost de 3 milioane euro. Valoarea fluxului investiiilor strine directe -milioane euroIndicatori 2008 2009 2010*) 2011**) 2012***) Total 9496 3488 2220 1920 1204 Participaie la 4873 1729 1824 1817 916 capital Credite intragrup 4623 1759 396 594 228 Sursa: BNR *) date semidefinitive **) date revizuite ***) date provizorii, estimate pe ase luni n anul 2010, 1.824 milioane de euro din investiiile strine directe s-au localizat n sectorul participanii la capital i 396 milioane euro au reprezentat credite intragrup.
Valoarea fluxului investiiilor strine directe (milioane euro)
192
De asemenea, la sfritul anului 2010, investiia direct a rezidenilor romni n strintate a fost de 1.675 milioane euro, aceasta fiind o contribuie ce a putut fi msurat prin sistemul de documentare existent n ar. Structura fluxurilor de capital strin investit n economia Romniei este n tabelul urmtor. Valoarea fluxului investiiilor strine directe n semestrul I 2012 -milioane euroIndicatori 2012*) Total 1204 Participaie la capital 916 Profituri reinvestite 73 Credite intragrup 215 Sursa: BNR *) date provizorii Primele ase luni ale anului 2012 relev o situaie greu de imaginat. Investiiile strine directe au fost de numai 620 milioane euro. Din suma de mai sus, 69,3% au reprezentat participaii la capital i 30,7% credite intragrup. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Cucu, V., (2008) Modele de fundamentarea deciziei de investiie, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition, Oxford University Press Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press www. Bnr.ro
193
Aspecte teoretice privind portofoliile de instrumente financiare concept i tipologie

Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Drd. Adina - Mihaela DINU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Abstract Financial instruments portfolio represents their combination performed depending on the investor's behavior towards risk and, ofcourse, the capital that is willing to invest in a certain time frame. Realizing a financial instruments portfolio aims to create diversification of investments that have resulted in diminishing the risk arising from the final total of those. Keywords: financial instruments portfolio, financial transaction, optimal portfolio, risk,investment. JEL Classification: G11, G23
1. Aspecte generale ncepnd cu cea de a doua jumtate a secolului trecut, pieele financiare au devenit o component fundamental a sistemului economic mondial. Astfel, se constat faptul c, n perioada menionat, valoarea i complexitatea tranzaciilor care implic instrumente financiare a crescut permanent, investiiile financiare devenind treptat o activitate de sine stttoare pentru multe persoane fizice sau juridice. Aceast atracie este determinat, n mare msur, de valoarea ctigurilor ce pot fi obinute pe piaa de capital. Evaluarea tranzaciilor cu instrumente financiare implic o analiz temeinic a raportului existent ntre ctigurile poteniale i riscul aferent unei investiii de capital. Astfel, att n lucrrile teoretice, ct i n activitatea practic se pune accentul pe maximizarea funciei de profit n condiiile minimizrii riscurilor aferente tranzaciilor analizate2. Orice potenial investitor care intenioneat s acioneze pe piaa de capital trebuie s fie informat c activitatea sa este supus unei serii de riscuri, principalele categorii putnd fi sintetizate astfel:
2 Anghel M.G. Aspecte teoretice privind portofiliile de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Criza economic previziune i impact pentru Romnia, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2009
194
Riscul modificrii legislaieieste specific statelor care se afl n curs tranziie i se refer la schimbrile actelor normative, cu precdere n ceea ce privete piaa financiar. Riscul optimal al investirii(risc specific) intervine atunci are loc efectuarea propriu-zis a investiiei de capital. Riscul afacerii este o categorie de risc care apare datorit categoriilor de instrumente financiare existente pe pia la un anumit moment, precum i ca urmare a unei eventuale evoluii nefavorabile a acestora pentru investitori. Riscul lichiditiipresupune imposibilitatea transformrii imediate i fr pagube a instrumentelor financiare n numerar, la un curs favorabil pentru investitor. Riscul creditului(caracteristic pieei obligaiunilor) apare atunci cnd obligaia de rscumparare sau a celei de plat a dobnzii la scadenele convenite nu mai poate fi respectat. Minimizarea riscurilor specifice tranzaciilor cu instrumente financiare se realizeaz prin intermediul investiiilor de portofoliu. Conceptul de portofoliu este unul complex astfel c, de-a lungul timpului, specialitii din domeniu, din ar i strinatate, au depus eforturi n vederea identificrii tuturor elementelor necesare pentru a clarifica aceast noiune. Aadar, prin noiunea de portofoliude instrumente financiare se nelege o combinaie de instrumente financiare deinute de o persoan sau companie cu scopul multiplicrii capitalului investit n condiiile minimizrii riscului prin diversificare3. Portofoliul reprezint o combinaie de active financiare, deinut de un investitor individual sau instituional cu scopul reducerii riscului prin diversificare.4 Gestiunea de portofolii const n constituirea unor grupri de active, astfel nct evoluia preurilor de pe pia ale acestora s asigure atingerea obiectivelor de rentabilitate definite de investitor, cu respectarea restriciilor n termeni de risc, determinate de alocarea activelor5. Astfel, n cazul unui portofoliu mixt format din aciuni i obligaiuni n situaia n care se nregistreaz scderea preurilor aciunilor deinute pierderea suferit poate fi compensat parial sau total prin ctigul realizat prin ncasarea dobanzii pentru obligaiunile ce fac parte din portofoliu. 2. Tipologia portofoliilor de instrumente financiare n funcie de categoria instrumentelor financiare incluse n structura acestora, portofoliile pot fi grupate n urmtoarele tipuri: Portofoliile de aciuni sunt construite numai din instrumente financiare ce confer un drept de proprietate asupra emitentului. La rndul lor, aceste
3 4
Roman, M. Statistica financiar bancar i bursier, Editura ASE, 2003 Downes John - Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms, Barron's Educational Series, 2006 5 Dragot, V. (coordonator) Gestiunea portofoliului de valori mobiliare - ediia a doua, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2009
195
portofolii de aciuni pot fi structurate n raport cu obiectivul investiional, respectiv: portofolii specializate (au ca scop investiiile n entiti economice din anumite domenii de activitate ori regiuni); portofolii de cretere (investiiile se efectueaz n societile comerciale care nregistreaz o cretere constant i continu, la un nivel superior fa de media de pe pia); portofolii de venit (n acest caz, investiiile sunt realizate n societile comerciale ce nregistreaz randament mare al dividendelor, situaie ntlnit mai ales n sectorul financiarbancar); portofolii de cretere agresiv (prin aplicarea strategiilor speculative, acestea au ca int creterea maxim a capitalului); portofolii umbr (se ncearc modelarea fidel a unui indice bursier n vederea obinerii de rentabiliti similare cu a celor oferite de evoluia indicelui bursier). - Portofoliile de obligaiuni au ca trstur esenial faptul c n componena acestora sunt incluse doar obligaiuni i, n raport cu specificul instrumentelor de credit, structurarea se realizeaz astfel: portofolii de obligaiuni guvernamentale (obligaiuni emise de stat i administraiile publice locale); portofolii de obligaiuni emise de societi comerciale din sectorul public sau privat; portofolii mixte (sunt formate din diverse categorii de obligaiuni emise de stat ori societi comerciale). - Portofoliile mixte conin n componena acestora, n proporii diferite, dou ori mai multe instrumente financiare de tipul celor caracterizate anterior. Scopul acestora este de diminua riscurile investiionale i de a realiza un grad ct mai ridicat de rentabilitate. Portofoliile de instrumente financiare sunt, n marea majoritate a cazurilor, combinaii care includ instrumente fr risc (titluri de stat i obligaiuni publice) i instrumente cu grad de risc ridicat (obligaiuni emise de societi comerciale, aciuni). n ultima perioad, se recomand ca n portofoliile de instrumente financiare s fie introduse i instrumente derivate (contracte futures, contracte options, contracte forward, etc), acestea fiind vzute ca un mijloc de diversificare a investiiei. ara de origine a emitenilor de instrumente financiare constituie un alt criteriu de grupare a portofoliilor n: - Portofoliile naionale construite din instrumente financiare emise i tranzacionate n moneda naional pe piee financiare naionale; - Portofoliile internaionale formate din instrumente financiare internaionale, cum ar fi euroobligaiuni sau obligaiuni strine. Raportul dintre risc i rentabilitate avut n vedere de investitor determin o nou clasificare a portofoliilor de instrumente financiare: - Portofoliile prudente au ca scop determinarea unui raport optim ntre rentabilitate i risc, la un anumit nivel de risc acceptat de investitor; - Portofoliile nonriscante (cu securitate maxim) protejeaz capitalului investit prin garantarea unei rentabiliti sigure (veniturile sunt reduse n condiiile unui risc redus); - Portofoliile clasice urmresc fructificarea capitalului investit peste media nregistrat de pia n condiiile unui anumit grad de risc.
Portofoliile de cretere sunt specifice investitorilor care plaseaz capitalul n instrumente financiare cu sanse mari de castig, dar n condiiile unui grad ridicat de risc; - Portofoliile speculative aduc investitorilor ctiguri rapide ntr-un interval de timp scurt sau mediu,dar cu un risc ridicat. Un alt criteriu de structurare a portofoliilor de instrumente financiare este modelul adoptat pentru gestiunea acestora care conduce la urmtoarea tipologie: - Portofoliile individuale sunt gestionate de investitorii individuali, acetia lund singuri decizia de cumprare sau vnzare a anumitor tipuri de instrumente financiare; - Portofoliile colective sunt achiziionate de ctre investitori sub forma unitilor de fond i sunt administrate de companii de management; - Portofoliile de mandat sunt gestionate de ctre specialitii din domeniu, iar pentru serviciile prestate investitorii pltesc un comision. ntreaga teorie a portofoliului este menit s creeze cadrul necesar identificrii unui portofoliu optim, respectiv a combinaiei de titluri financiare care ofer cea mai bun rentabilitate posibil pentru un anumit nivel al riscului sau prezint cel mai redus nivel al riscului posibil pentru o anumit rat de rentabilitate6. Conceptul de portofoliu optim a fost utilizat pentru prima dat de ctre Harry Markowitz, n anul 19527. Acesta arta faptul c este posibil ca diferite portofolii s aib asociate diferite niveluri de risc i de profit. n aceste condiii, fiecare investitor de capital trebuie s decid care este nivelul maxim al riscului pe care este dispus s l accepte, innd ns seama de valoarea profitului ateptat de la investiia analizat. n funcie de decizia adoptat anterior, investitorul poate alege soluia optim de diversificare a portofoliului su de titluri financiare. Bibliografie selectiv Anghel M.G. Aspecte teoretice privind portofiliile de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Criza economic previziune i impact pentru Romnia, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2009 Downes John - Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms, Barron's Educational Series, 2006; Dragot, V. (coordonator) Gestiunea portofoliului de valori mobiliare - ediia a doua, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2009; Markowitz, H Portofolio selection. Efficient Diversification of Investments , Journal of Finance 7, 1952; Roman, M. Statistica financiar bancar i bursier, Editura ASE, 2003
6 7
Roman, M. Statistica financiar bancar i bursier, Editura ASE, 2003 Markowitz, H Portofolio selection. Efficient Diversification of Investments, Journal of Finance 7, 1952
197
Utilizarea metodelor statistice n evaluarea riscului financiar

Conf. univ. dr. Emanuela IONESCU Asistent univ. dr. Amelia DIACONU Asistent univ. dr. Alina GHEORGHE Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract In marketing activity, there will always be risk, and marketing being a vital element for an economic entity, and also a dynamic department that must quickly adjust to economy requirements, we consider that a research on them is a challenge and important action in understanding them and possibly to identify new solutions that would lead to a smoother marketing. Key words: risk, methods, statistics, distribution, financial, forecast, probability, deviation, profit, maximization. JEL Classification: G32
Adoptarea unei decizii de investiii necesit efectuarea de previziuni ale fluxurilor de numerar generate de proiect. Aceste previziuni nu sunt, ns, certe, ci ele se realizeaz cu un anumit grad de probabilitate. Acest grad de incertitudine poate fi msurat prin distribuia de probabilitate a previziunii, respectiv fiecrui rezultat estimat i se asociaz o probabilitate de apariie. ntr-o form simpl, distribuia de probabilitate poate consta din trei rezultate posibile, respectiv optimist, moderat i pesimist. Estimaia optimist se poate realiza dac economia este n avnt, cea pesimist dac economia este n declin, iar estimaia moderat se poate realiza cnd economia funcioneaz la un nivel normal. Cu ct distribuia de probabilitate a ratelor de rentabilitate este mai ngust, cu att sunt anse mai mari ca rentabilitatea real s fie mai apropiat de cea ateptat i, implicit, riscul proiectului este mai mic. Pentru exemplificare, considerm un proiect de investiii A, pentru care se estimeaz trei rentabiliti posibile, cu urmtoarea distribuie de probabilitate: Varianta Rata rentabilitii (r) Probabilitatea (p) Optimist 30% 35% Moderat 25% 40% Pesimist 10% 25%
Evident, suma probabilitilor celor trei variante identificate trebuie s fie egal cu 1 sau 100%. Prin nmulirea fiecrei rate de rentabilitate cu probabilitatea de apariie i prin nsumarea rezultatelor, se obine media ponderat a rentabilitilor:
r = r p = 0,30 x 0,35 + 0,25 x 0,40 + 0,10 x 0,25 = 0,23 = 23% .

Pentru a evalua riscul aferent proiectului de investiii, se pornete de la distribuia de probabilitate a rentabilitii; cu ct aceasta este mai ngust, cu att riscul este mai mic. Vom considera, n acest caz, un al doilea proiect de investiii, B, care prezint urmtoarele caracteristici: Varianta Optimist Moderat Pesimist Rata rentabilitii 40% 20% - 20% Probabilitatea 20% 50% 30% Probabilitile de apariie i ratele de rentabilitate pentru cele dou proiecte, A i B, pot fi reprezentate astfel:
Fig. 1 Graficul distribuiilor de probabilitate pentru proiectele A i B Din figura anterioar, se observ c proiectul A are un risc mai sczut dect proiectul B, deoarece distribuia de probabilitate este mai ngust (intervalul de variaie a rentabilitii este [0,10; 0,30] pentru A, fiind mai strns fa de intervalul [-0,20; 0,40] pentru B). Din cele enunate anterior, se observ c se poate compara riscul a dou sau mai multe proiecte de investiii pe baza amplitudinii variaiei ratei de rentabilitate. Pentru a aprecia ngustimea distribuiei de probabilitate a rentabilitii1, se poate folosi, mai corect, deviaia standard sau abaterea standard. Cu ct este mai mic deviaia standard, cu att este mai strns distribuia de probabilitate i, n consecin, riscul. Abaterea standard se poate determina pornind de la relaia de calcul al dispersiei:
2 = (r i r ) pi
i =1
Diaconu Aurelian, Managementul calitii: influena erorilor de msurare, Editura Artifex, 2008, p.201.
199
i =1
(ri r ) pi ,
unde: 2 dispersia sau variana; abaterea standard; i varianta pentru care se face estimaia; ri rata rentabilitii aferent variantei i; r - rata medie ponderat a rentabilitii variantelor i; pi probabilitatea aferent rentabilitii i. Pentru proiectele A i B considerate anterior, dispersia i abaterea standard nregistreaz urmtoarele valori: - pentru A: 2 = 0,0061 = 7,81% - pentru B: 2 = 0,0617 = 24,84%. Abaterea standard este o probabilitate, respectiv media ponderat a deviaiei de la valoarea ateptat. Ea arat cu ct este valoarea real mai mare sau mai mic dect valoarea ateptat. n exemplul nostru, abaterea standard are o valoare mult mai mic n cazul proiectului A fa de B, ceea ce semnific un nivel mai redus al riscului pentru A. Acest lucru s-a desprins i din reprezentarea grafic fcut anterior, de unde s-a observat o distribuie de probabilitate mai extins a proiectului B fa de A. Atunci cnd se compar dou sau mai multe proiecte are prezint aceeai abatere standard, evident c va fi preferat proiectul care prezint o rentabilitate mai mare. n aceste condiii, se calculeaz coeficientul de variaie (v), ca raport ntre abaterea standard i medie:
v=
. r
Cu ct coeficientul de variaie este mai mic, cu att riscul proiectului este mai redus. n general, coeficientul de variaie2 este un indicator mai bun de apreciere a riscului dect abaterea standard, dar el este folosit, cu predilecie, atunci cnd indicatorul urmrit este exprimat n uniti monetare absolute. Cnd distribuia de probabilitate este exprimat n procente, se utilizeaz abaterea standard pentru evaluarea riscului. n cazul anterior, coeficientul de variaie calculat pentru proiectul A este de 0,3396, iar pentru B este de 2,07.
2
Nastase D,- Evaluarea riscului in activitatea de marketing, Ed. Semne, Bucuresti, 2013, p.134.
200
Distribuia probabilitilor pentru profitul net pe aciune, corespunztor celor trei structuri de finanare, se pot reprezenta grafic, ca n figura nr. 2, unde am folosit distribuii continue i nu discrete ca n problema anterioar
Analiznd graficul anterior, se poate trage concluzia sporirea ndatorrii determin sporirea profitului net pe aciune, dar i a riscului, reflectat de dispersarea pe un interval mai mare a variaiei profitului net. innd seama de cele prezentate anterior, se poate determina i gradul de ndatorare3 care maximizeaz profitul net pe aciune la un anumit nivel al cifrei de afaceri. Pentru aceasta, se reprezint grafic profitul net pe aciune (Pna) ca o funcie liniar de cifra de afaceri: Pn = CA Cf Cv Dob Ip Ip = Ci x (CA Cf Cv Dob) Cv = Rcv x CA unde: Ci cota de impozit pe profit Rcv rata cheltuielilor variabile fa de cifra de afaceri (50%, indiferent de gradul de ndatorare). Rezult: Pn = CA Cf Rcv x CA Dob Ci x (CA Cf Rcv x CA Dob) = (CA Cf Rcv x CA Dob) x (1 Ci) = [CA x (1 Rcv) Cf Dob] x (1 Ci) Profitul net pe aciune va fi:
Pna =
unde:
3
Pn [CA x (1 - Rcv) - Cf - Dob ] x (1 - Ci) = Nac Nac
Sorin Gresoi- Managementul si gestiunea calitatii, editura Pro Universitaria, Bucuresti 2011, p. 227
201
Nac numrul de aciuni. Pentru determinarea punctelor de intersecie ale celor trei linii, se are n vedere c cifra de afaceri i profitul net pe aciune sunt egale pentru acelai grad de ndatorare:
CA x (1 - Rcv) - Cf - Dob1 CA x (1 - Rcv) - Cf - Dob2 x (1 - Ci) = x (1 - Ci) Nac 1 Nac 2

CA x N2 x (1 Rcv) (Cf + Dob1) x N2 = CA x N1 x (1 Rcv) (Cf + Dob2) x N1 CA x (1 Rcv) x (N2 - N1) = Cf x (N2 - N1) + Dob1 x N2 Dob2 x N1
CA =
Cf Dob1 x N2 - Dob2 x N1 + 1 - Rcv (1 - Rcv) x (N2 - N1)
De menionat c analiza punctelor de indiferen ale profitului net nu trebuie utilizat pentru luarea deciziilor de investiii, ci numai pentru deciziile de finanare. n practic, determinarea acestor puncte se face cu destul dificultate, datorit multitudinii de corelaii4 care trebuie avute n vedere ntre volumul produciei realizate, cererea pe pia pentru produsele ntreprinderii, evoluia nivelului i structurii cheltuielilor variabile, a cheltuielilor fixe, a ratei dobnzii pe pia, precum i a ratei dobnzii la care se poate mprumuta firma n funcie de gradul su de ndatorare etc. n prezentarea anterioar a metodologiei de analiz, sau avut n vedere ipoteze simplificatoare referitoare la toate aceste aspecte. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache Constantin Metode cantitative utilizate in analizele financiar bancare, Ed. Artifex, Bucuresti, 2006, Buiga Andrei, Alina Gheorghe, Sorin Gresoi Managementul productiei, Ed. Terra Nostra, Iasi, 2012, Bugudui Elena, - Metode cantitative utilizate in studiul pietei, Ed. Artixef, Bucuresti, 2009, Coderie Constantin, Udrescu Mircea-Managementul marketingului. Ed. Artifex, Bucuresti, 2009, Diaconu Aurel Managementul calitatii-influenta erorilor de masurare, Ed. Artifex, Bucuresti, 2008, Gresoi Sorin - Managementul si gestiunea calitatii, editura Pro Universitaria, Bucuresti 2011, p. 227 Nastase Dan, -Notiuni de marketing Ed. Arvin Press, Bucuresti, 2009, Udrescu M.- Nastase D. - Studiul comportamentului consumatorului , Ed. Artifex 2010.
Cristina Protopopescu, Anca Teau , Crisis Management in Insurance Companies, Proceedings of the International Syposium Global Economic Crisis Status and Perspectives, Revista Romana de Statistica Supliment trim II/2012, p.22,
202
Model de analiz SWOT a pieei de capital din Romnia

Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti/ Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Asistent univ. drd. Zoica NICOLA Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract A SWOT analysis of the romanian capital market highlights the main directions of development in this field of activity, but also the potential remedial measures of new developments in the financial instruments market.Thus, it is found that the stock market of our country has not reached an optimal level of maturity, it is still strong submited to the external factors influence. Key words:SWOT analysis, capital market, Bucharest Stock Exchange, factors of influence. JEL Classification: G14, G18
Pentru a completa imaginea de ansamblu a pieei din capital din Romnia se poate realiza o analiz a principalelor puncte forte i a punctelor slabe ce apar n activitatea specific acestui domeniu de activitate. A. Strenghts (Puncte forte) Adoptarea unui cadru legislativ modern, compatibil cu cel din rile Uniunii Europene, menit s asigure o protecie efectiv att a investitorilor, ct i a pieei de capital n general, a creat premisele stabilizrii efective a pieei de capital romneti. n perioada 2002 2007, ca urmare a liberalizrii efective a acestui sector de activitate, piaa de capital din Romnia a cunoscut o puternic dezvoltare la nivelul tuturor componentelor sale, evoluie ce se reflect att n volumul tranzaciilor efectuate, ct i n valorile nregistrate de ctre principalii indici bursieri1. Un alt factor deosebit de important n dezvoltarea pieei de capital romneti a fost introducerea de la 1 ianuarie 2005 a cotei unice de
Georgescu, A; Dudian, M Romanian capital market PEST and SWOT analyses, Analele Universitii din Oradea, Seria tiine Economice, 2008
1
203
impozitare de 16%, aceasta fiind inferioar nivelului nregistrat n alte state. Evoluia pozitiv a pieei de capital este influenat semnificativ de trendul pozitiv nregistrat de ctre marea majoritate a indicatorilor macroeconomici de rezultate n perioada 2000 2007. Din punct de vedere tehnic, iniiativa Bursei de Valori Bucureti de a crea noi platforme de monitorizare a evoluiei tranzaciilor pe piaa bursier din Romnia (prin intermediul Internetului sau a telefoniei mobile) poate fi considerat ca fiind un alt potenial factor de succes pentru evoluia ulterioar a acestui domeniu de activitate2.
B.
Weakness (Puncte slabe) Situaia politic relativ instabil din ultimii ani (cu precdere anul curent caracterizat de puternice frmntri politice) influeneaz negativ percepia investitorilor asupra pieei de capital din ara noastr. Ratingul de ar relativ redus acordat Romniei de ctre ageniile specializate determin o atitudine prudenial din partea marilor investitori de portofoliu din strintate. Economia Romniei este, n mare msur, dependent de infuziile de capital din strintate, ceea ce influeneaz negativ att performanele economice ale rii, ct i pe cele ale pieei de capital. Deprecierea continu a monedei naionale influeneaz, la rndul su, negativ performanele nregistrate n domeniul tranzaciilor de capital. Imposibilitatea de a realiza o reunire a ntregii piee de capital romneti, prin fuziunea dintre Bursa de Valori Bucureti i Bursa Monetar Financiar i de Mrfuri Sibiu, afecteaz negativ performaneele de ansamblu ale acestui domeniu de activitate3. Numrul companiilor listate pe piaa bursier din ara noastr este unul foarte redus comparativ cu cel nregistrat n alte ri. Informaiile oferite publicului larg, precum i investitorilor interesai de ctre instituiile specializate ale pieei de capital sunt mult mai puine comparativ cu cele puse la dispoziie n rile n care acest domeniu de activitate este unul foarte dezvoltat. Gradul de dependen foarte ridicat al economiei Romniei de evoluiile nregistrate pe pieele internaionale constituie o alt problem n calea dezvoltrii pieei de capital din ara noastr. Astfel, se remarc faptul c efectele crizei economico financiare internaionale s-au fcut imediat simite la nivelul ntregii economii
Anghel M.G. The analysis on the Evolution of Capital Market basically in Romania during 1995 November 2011, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Volume 1, Issue 2, 2011, 3 Anghelache G. Capital Market in Romania current developments, Romania into European Structures, Romanian Statistical Review May Supplement
204
romneti i, implicit, la nivelul pieei de capital, performanele nregistrate de ctre acest domeniu de activitate reducndu-se semnificativ ncepnd cu anul 2008. C. Opportunities (Oportuniti) Armonizarea cadrului legislativ din ara noastr cu prevederile Directivelor Uniunii Europene a permis entitilor romneti cotate la burs s se adreseze tuturor pieelor UE, fr a fi necesar obinerea unor noi autorizaii. Fuziunea realizat n anul 2006 ntre Bursa de Valori Bucureti i Piaa Electronic RASDAQ a mbuntit semnificativ imaginea de ansamblu a pieei de capital din Romnia. Un alt factor ce influeneaz pozitiv evoluia pieei de capital romneti vizeaz crearea, n ultimii ani, a unor instituii moderne menite s asigure buna funcionare a acestui domeniu de activitate, cu o meniune special pentru nfinarea n anul 2006 a Depozitarului Central. Cota de impozitare de 16%, considerat a fi una relativ redus comparativ cu cele nregistrate n alte ri europene, constituie un factor ce ar putea atrage investitorii ctre piaa de capital din ara noastr. Un alt factor de succes pentru piaa de capital din ara noastr l constituie accesul relativ uor pe aceast pia al potenialilor investitori. D. Threats (Pericole) Perpetuarea efectelor negative ale crizei economico financiare internaionale i n perioadele imediat urmtoare ar putea afecta grav capacitatea pieei de capital romneti4. Dependena economiei romneti de evoluiile internaionale poate fi considerat ca un potenial pericol pentru piaa de capital din ara noastr. Un alt motiv de ngrijorare n ceea ce privete evoluia ulterioar a pieei de capital din ara noastr vizeaz reducerea semnificativ a numrului societilor cotate pe piaa bursier. O cauz de temere poate fi considerat i faptul c anul 2012 este an electoral, prilej cu care cheltuielile bugetare cresc considerabil. Ca rezultat al eforturilor depuse de ara noastr pentru a fi acceptat ca ar membr a Uniunii Eurppene, n anii precedeni aderrii creterea
Anghelache G., Anghel M.G. Efectele crizei economico-financiare asupra pieei de capital din ara noastr, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Efecte i soluii prentru criza economico-financiar, Editura Artifex, 2009
205
economic a atins cote nalte (7,7% n anul 2006), dar n perioada post-aderare s-au nregistrat valori mult mai mici. Evoluia Bursei de Valori din Bucureti a fost una pozitiv n perioada 1995 2007, aceasta fiind favorizat att de evoluiile macroeconomice specifice rii noastre, ct i de percepia tot mai favorabil a entitilor economice romneti asupra rolului i locului pieei de capital ntr-un sistem economic modern. Anul 2008 constituie o perioad nefast pentru piaa de capital din Romnia, aceasta fiind profund afectat de efectele crizei economico financiare internaionale5. Principalul pericol pentru desfurarea activitii pieei de capital din ara noastr n perioada imediat urmtoare se refer la influena negativ a evoluiei de ansamblu a economiei romneti, precum i la dependena major fa de evoluiile specifice pieelor de capital internaionale. Este de remarcat faptul c se fac eforturi substaniale menite s asigure adaptarea pieei de capital romneti la cerinele economiei moderne, precum i compatibilizarea acesteia cu structurile similare din rile Uniunii Europene. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache G., Anghel M.G. Efectele crizei economico-financiare asupra pieei de capital din ara noastr, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Efecte i soluii prentru criza economico-financiar, Editura Artifex, 2009; Anghel M.G. Actual Romanian capital market characteristics, ART ECO Review of Economic Studies and Research, Editura Artifex, 2012; Anghel M.G. The analysis on the Evolution of Capital Market basically in Romania during 1995 November 2011, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Volume 1, Issue 2, 2011; Anghelache G.Capital Market in Romania current developments, Romania into European Structures, Romanian Statistical Review May Supplement, 2008; Georgescu, A; Dudian, M Romanian capital market PEST and SWOT analyses,Analele Universitii din Oradea, Seria tiine Economice, 2008.
Anghel M.G. Actual Romanian capital market characteristics, ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and Research, Editura Artifex, 2012
206
Consideraii privind intenia de colaborare n afaceri (affectio societatis)

Conf. univ. dr. Anca POPESCU-CRUCERU Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract In terms of intrinsic content, affectio societatis (also called animus societatis) expresses a psychological element belonging to the internal will, that is outsourced by expressing consent to the formation of a company, in decision-making and control of the bussines. This implies intention of voluntary cooperation of the associates, in working together and supporting the risks of the activity, assuming legal equality between partners, excluding any relationship of subordination. Key words: affectio societatis, unanimity principle, majority principle, consent JEL Classification: K22, K23
Introducere Jurisprudena1 a considerat mult vreme c affectio societatis exprim doar voina intern a asociailor de a da natere unei noi persoane juridice, ipotez care ns nu subzist fa de argumentarea existenei affectio societatis n cadrul societilor fr personalitate juridic, inclusiv n cadrul asocierii n participaiune2. Manifestarea affectio societatis trebuie s fie cursiv3, de la momentul lurii deciziei de constituire a societii i pe tot parcursul existenei societii, participarea activ la viaa societii exprimnd nsi esena noiunii. Opiniile doctrinare n definirea acestui concept au oscilat de-a lungul timpului, de la tratarea sa ca aspect pur psihologic, dezlegat de elementele obiective ale societii (aportul asociailor i mprirea beneficiilor), pn la subordonarea affectio societatis interesului social. Ceea ce s-a recunoscut ns aproape unanim este c acest concept fundamenteaz natura juridic a societii nsi, concretizndu-se ntr-un element de natur a diferenia structural noiunea de societate de alte forme de cooperare n vederea obinerii de beneficii, dar i de indiviziunea succesoral sau de formele asociative care urmresc atingerea unor scopuri morale asociaiile i fundaiile.
1 2
exemplificnd, CSJ Secia comercial, decizia nr. 287/1996, n Dreptul nr. 1/1997, p. 124 n acelai sens, i Gh. Piperea, Drept comercial. ntreprinderea, Ed. C. H. Beck, 2012 3 I. Adam, C.N. Savu, Legea societilor comerciale Comentarii i explicaii, Ed. C.H.Beck, 2010, p.11
207
ns formele pe care le poate mbrca acest concept sunt variate, de la exhibarea acestuia n momentul ncheierii contractului de societate, n forma consimmntului4, pn la exteriorizarea sa, n formele prevzute de lege, n cursul activitii societii, prin participarea la luarea deciziilor i la controlul activitii societii. Definire, natur juridic i forme de manifestare Doctrina strin a definit conceptul n funcie de elementele structurale ale acestuia, respectiv absena subordonrii ntre asociai, colaborarea voluntar, participarea activ la conducerea i gestiunea societii5, coninut care, pentru a reflecta n tot sensul noiunii, trebuie corelat i cu momentul anterior, intern, al formrii voinei viitorilor asociai, care conine i asumarea riscului pierderilor. Chiar dac s-a afirmat c n cazul societilor de capitaluri, affectio societatis se estompeaz, datorit prevalenei factorului pecuniar, a admite o asemenea teorie presupune a exclude asumarea riscului pierderilor, deprtndu-se, pe cale de consecin, de dou dintre elementele caracteristice ale societii ceea ce transform actul de voin al persoanei care se dorete asociat ntr-o aciune pur investiional. Ori, att n momentul formrii unei societi, ct mai cu seam pe parcursul existenei acesteia, interesul asociatului, generic vorbind, este practic orientat spre satisfacerea interesului propriu, nefiindu-i astfel indiferent modalitatea de atingere a scopului urmrit la asociere. n plus, chiar i deintorul de aciuni n cadrul societilor pe aciuni cotate (unde factorul pecuniae este cu att mai puternic) este interesat de derularea activitii societii, care se relev n starea patrimoniului i astfel n valoarea aciunilor ceea ce nseamn c participarea sa la viaa social nu poate fi calificat ca inexistent. Formele de manifestare ale affectio societatis ns difer n funcie de specificul asocierii. n cazul societilor de persoane i al societii cu rspundere limitat, conceptul se materializeaz n reglementarea principiului unanimitii, iar n cazul societilor de capitaluri, forma de materializare este regsit n aplicarea principiului majoritii. Totui, att doctrina, ct i practica judectoreasc, sunt reticente n trasarea unei linii de demarcaie radicale; aceasta ar presupune ca instana, n cazul constatrii lipsei unanimitii n cazurile menionate, s procedeze la dizolvarea ab initio a societii, cu nclcarea principiului salvgardrii societii sau, n cazul constatrii imposibilitii obinerii majoritii, s se subsumeze voinei acionarilor situaie de neconceput. S-a exemplificat astfel, n doctrin6, posibilitatea contracarrii abuzului de minoritate7 prin numirea, de ctre instan, a unui mandatar (judiciar) n scopul de a
4 Opinie reinut i de o parte a practicii judectoreti n acest sens, CSJ Secia comercial, decizia nr. 287/1996, n Revista de drept comercial nr. 11/1997 5 G. Cornu (coord.), Vocabulaire juridique, Ed. 5-eme, Paris, 1996 6 L. B. Suleanu, Element specific al contractului de societate affectio societatis, n RDC nr. 3/2012, p. 80 - 91
208
suplini voina asociatului care s-a opus, n mod nejustificat, unei majorri necesare a capitalului social, fcndu-se aplicarea teoriei abuzului de drept. O asemenea soluie, chiar dac ar conduce la salvgardarea societii, nu poate fi primit, instana neputndu-se subroga voinei sociale; o soluie posibil ar fi putut fi obligarea asociatului care s-a opus n mod nejustificat la plata daunelor pricinuite societii, urmare a constatrii abuzului de drept svrit, n temeiul rspunderii delictuale. Sau, constatnd pe cale de consecin, nenelegerile grave ntre asociai, instana ar fi putut dispune dizolvarea societii, n absena unei cereri de retragere din societate. Dizolvarea societii ns rmne soluia extrem; nici practica judectoreasc romn, nici cea strin, nu agreeaz aceast modalitate de soluionare a diferendelor dintre asociai dect n cazurile n care niciunul dintre acetia nu mai este animat de affectio societatis, continuarea activitii societii nemaifiind un deziderat al asociailor8. O soluie interesant este adoptat de art. 1928 NCC, care nu mai circumstaniaz excluderea asociatului unor motive strict i limitativ enumerate (ca n cazurile avute n vedere de art. 222 Legea nr. 31/1990), instana putnd pronuna excluderea asociatului din societatea simpl pentru orice motiv temeinic, dovedit de asociatul reclamant, n care s-ar putea include i abuzul de minoritate. Anterior intrrii n vigoare a NCC, practica judectoreasc romn a decis n sensul excluderii chiar a asociatului reclamant, care a solicitat dizolvarea societii pentru nenelegeri grave, de tipul abuzului de minoritate, considernd c n cazul n care chiar asociatul reclamant se face vinovat de imposibilitatea derulrii vieii societare, la cererea celuilalt asociat, se acord preferin msurii excluderii din societate, cu continuarea societii de ctre unicul asociat rmas9. Aceast posibil soluie a fost argumentat de doctrin i n sens afirmativ, dar i n sens negativ. Astfel, s-a artat10 c, n cazul asociailor societilor de persoane, ai SRL i ai comanditailor din SCA, excluderea poate prevala dizolvrii societii, chiar dac legea nu prevede expres acest motiv; argumentul este unul de analogie, fa de posibilitatea asociatului de a se retrage pentru motive temeinice, printre care se poate include i deteriorarea affectio societatis altfel, s-ar ajunge la aplicarea unei sanciuni colective celorlali asociai, cci, pronunnd dizolvarea asociaii ar fi constrni cu toii s suporte o daun, dizolvarea anticipat a societii, pentru culpa unuia singur.
7 neles de doctrin ca derivnd din pasivitatea sau opoziia nejustificat a unuia dintre asociai n adunarea general, atitudine care genereaz imposibilitatea adoptrii unei hotrri, datorit nendeplinirii condiiei de majoritate (cerut, spre exemplu, atunci cnd asociaii dein fiecare cte 50% din capital) 8 n acest sens, L.M. Tec, Retragerea acionarului din societatea pe aciuni de tip nchis reglementat de Legea nr. 31/1990, n Pandectele romne, nr. 2/2009, p. 41 9 ICCJ Secia comercial, decizia nr. 768/2008, n F. Meclejan-Strc, Votul asociailor n societile comerciale, Ed. C.H.Beck, 2011, p. 394-397 10 I. L. Georgescu, Drept comercial romn, vol. II, Ed. All Beck, Colecia Restitutio, 2002, p. 176
209
n sens contrar, s-a artat11 c n absena enumerrii legale a acestei cauze de excludere, instanele nu pot aplica sanciunea; n plus, argumentele s-au bazat pe dreptul intangibil al asociatului de a nu fi exclus din societate, precum i pe dreptul de proprietate al asociatului. Considerm ns c balana trebuie s ncline ctre salvgardarea societii, atunci cnd, n funcie de circumstanele concrete, activitatea acesteia poate continua, cu att mai mult cu ct devine incident protecia creditorilor n cazul dizolvrii. Asociatul exclus, practic, obine aceleai avantaje materiale ca i n cazul dizolvrii, iar invocarea de ctre acesta a dispariiei affectio societatis trebuie neleas ca argument n sensul retragerii din societate i nu, textual, ca o cauz de dizolvare. Ori, nsi mprejurarea c acesta nu uzeaz de prerogativa retragerii poate avea semnificaia exrecitrii cu rea-credin a drepturilor, aa nct, la cererea societii nsi i a asociailor rmai, instana poate acorda preferin soluie excluderii12. n privina societilor pe aciuni, dat fiind prevalena factorului pecuniae asupra affectio societatis, soluia comport o serie de precizri. Dei legea nu prevede posibilitatea excluderii acionarului n aceleai cazuri enumerate n art. 222, se recunoate dreptul Adunrii generale a acionarilor de a sanciona nclcarea ndatoririlor acionarilor fondatori, prin promovarea aciunii n rspundere reglementat de art. 155 Legea nr. 31/1990. Apreciem c i n aceast ipotez, motivul formulrii unei asemenea cereri l constituie tot deturnarea affectio societatis, care conine, n mod intrinsec, obligaia de onestitate a acionarului n societate. Pe de alt parte, doctrina13 a susinut grefarea affectio societatis pe noiunea de interes social. Astfel, s-a apreciat c interesul social coincide cu interesul comun al asociailor de a-i mri patrimoniul personal, interesul social fiind astfel expresia intereselor acionarilor subsumate noiunii de affectio societatis. Intenia comun a asociailor/acionarilor de a desfura o activitate n vederea obinerii de profit se transform n chiar scop al societii, concepie pe care, de altfel, se fundamenteaz i ideea sancionrii acelor cazuri n care, ca urmare a votului, sunt favorizai anumii acionari (abuzul de majoritate). Practica judectoreasc a Curii de Casaie din Frana a apreciat n mod constant c abuzul de majoritate exist atunci cnd o hotrre a fost luat contrar interesului general al societii i n unicul scop de a favoriza membrii majoritii n detrimentul minoritii14. Prin aceast definire, s-a relevat conflictul de interese dintre acionari (subsumat affectio societatis), principiul guvernrii majoritare fiind folosit n unicul scop de a favoriza membrii majoritii n detrimentul minoritii. n acest
I. Turcu, Tratat teoretic i practic de drept comercial, Ed. C.H.Beck, Bucureti, 2008, vol. II, p. 494 F. Strc-Meclejan, op.cit., p. 399 n acest sens, R. N. Catan, Dreptul societilor comerciale. Probleme actuale privind societile pe aciuni. Democraia acionarial, Ed. Sfera, Cluj-Napoca, 2007 14 n acest sens, Dominique Schmidt, Les conflits d`intrts dans la socit anonyme, Jolly, Paris, 2004
12 13 11
210
mod, s-a justificat ruptura comunitii de interese dintre acionari, ajungndu-se la soluia anulrii hotrrilor astfel luate. Jurisprudena romn nu admite ingerina n voina asociailor, astfel cum n mod curent se dispune de ctre instanele americane15. ICCJ a statuat, n decizii de caz, inadmisibilitatea exercitrii unui control de oportunitate sau de profitabilitate a hotrrilor adunrii generale16. n acest caz, apreciem c instanele, n msura n care constat deturnarea affectio societatis, prin abuz de majoritate sau abuz de minoritate, constatnd conflict de interes ntre asociat i societate, are posibilitatea s decid anularea hotrrii astfel adoptate17, eventual cu obligarea la plata de daune pentru prejudiciul cauzat. Concluzii Regula n materie societar este ns cea a exprimrii hotrrii concordante a dou sau a multor pri, care implic ns, n mod specific, voina comun de a coopera, concretizat n affectio societatis, particularitate care deosebesc societatea de indiviziunea nscut ca urmare a cumprrii n comun a unui bun, ca efect al transmisiunii succesorale sau ca efect al ncheierii unei convenii prin care salariatul (sau managerul unei societi comerciale) beneficiaz de un anumit procent din profitul societii. Bibliografie selectiv Adam I., Savu C.N., Legea societilor comerciale Comentarii i explicaii, Ed. C.H.Beck, 2010 Catan R. N., Dreptul societilor comerciale. Probleme actuale privind societile pe aciuni. Democraia acionarial, Ed. Sfera, Cluj-Napoca, 2007 Cornu G. (coord.), Vocabulaire juridique, Ed. 5-eme, Paris, 1996 Georgescu I.L., Drept comercial romn, vol. II, Ed. All Beck, Colecia Restitutio, 2002 Meclejan-Strc F., Votul asociailor n societile comerciale, Ed. C.H.Beck, 2011 Piperea Gh., Drept comercial. ntreprinderea, Ed. C. H. Beck, 2012 Suleanu L. B., Element specific al contractului de societate affectio societatis, n RDC nr. 3/2012 Schmidt D., Les conflits d`intrts dans la socit anonyme, Jolly, Paris, 2004 Tec L.M., Retragerea acionarului din societatea pe aciuni de tip nchis reglementat de Legea nr. 31/1990, n Pandectele romne, nr. 2/2009 Turcu I., Tratat teoretic i practic de drept comercial, Ed. C.H.Beck, Bucureti, 2008, vol. II
15 In fact, the court went so far as to impose an affirmative duty on the majority to cooperate with the minoritys efforts to sell by meeting with potential buyers so long as the burden on the corporation was reasonable. The court also rejected the argument that the business judgment rule protected the decision of the majority not to affirmatively cooperate in the effort to sell, Dallas Court of Appeals, the Fifth Court of Appeals, March 28, 2011, www.shareholderoppression.com 16 ICCJ Secia comercial, decizia nr. 4476/2005, n Pandectele romne, nr. 1/2006, p. 50 17 n acest sens, decizia nr. 1134/2007 a ICCJ Secia comercial, www.scj.ro
211
Impactul investiiilor strine directe asupra cuantumului i dinamicii prelevrilor fiscale

Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti / Universitatea Cretin Dimitrie Cantemir Abstract The applicative part of the analysis assumes to elaborate, respectively test from the econometric viewpoint, a functional model that can be applied to Romanian macro-economical reality, to issue conclusions, thouroughly justified from both theoretical and functional points of view related to the manner in which the dynamics, structure and level of foreign direct investments realized in Romania during 2003-2010 induced significant influences on the fiscal prelevations collected in the national budget. Key words: model, econometrics, data series,investment, payment balance JEL Classification: E22, O16
1. Aspecte teoretice Modelele econometrice de factura celor aduse n discuie nu au fost aplicate asupra seriilor de date nregistrate de Romnia. Consider c trsturile fundamentale ale situaiei macroeconomice post-decembriste nu aduc argumente relevante n favoarea implementrii modelelor respective pe considerentul c nu estimeaz variabile rezultative care s in de sfera fiscal-bugetar, iar din punct de vedere al substanei economice dezbaterile de actualitate fac trimitere n majoritatea cazurilor la identificarea de metode i mijloace care s vizeze eficientizarea politicilor fiscale naionale. Pe acest fond, studiul redat n cuprinsul prezentei lucrri are ca finalitate descrierea din punct de vedere econometric a legturilor funcionale identificate ntre variabilele independente reprezentate ISD (inclusiv descrierea n structur a acestora) i variabilele rezultative care in de sfera fiscal-bugetar (impozite directe, indirecte i prelevri parafiscale aezate n sarcina contribuabililor). Analiza structural a investiiilor strine directe nregistrate n Romnia n perioada 2003- 2010 s-a realizat pe baza datelor furnizate de ctre cercetrile statistice privind investiiile strine directe (ISD) realizate de ctre Banca Naional a Romniei mpreun cu Institutul Naional de Statistic (metodologia utilizat la realizarea respectivelor cercetri statistice fiind cea prevzut de manualul balanei
212
de pli al Fondului Monetar Internaional, ediia a 5-a BPM5), precum i pe baza datelor din baza de date oficial a Comisiei Europene1. 2. Analiza legturii funcionale dintre sursele investiiilor strine directe nregistrate n Romnia i cuantumul prelevrilor fiscale colectate n perioada 2003-2012 Confirmarea legturii funcionale dintre dinamica ISD defalcate pe surse de provenien (variabil independent) i evoluia nivelului prelevrilor fiscale colectate (variabil dependent) s-a realizat utiliznd instrumentarul recunoscut de majoritatea lucrrilor de specialitate, respectiv estimarea funciei de regresie aplicabile datelor luate n calcul prin intermediul metodei celor mai mici ptrate (m.m.c.p.). Legtura dintre indicatorii anterior menionai prezint interes, n sensul c, validarea funciilor de regresie estimate va caracteriza din punct de vedere economic modul n care dinamica ISD (la nivelul Romniei) induce efecte semnificative asupra evoluiei prelevrilor fiscale colectate la Bugetul de stat. Vom ncerca s demonstrm dac putem estima un anumit nivel al prelevrilor fiscale pe fondul evoluiei structurii ISD (din punct de vedere al provenienei acestora). Metoda regresiei este folosit pentru a caracteriza forma i sensul legturii dintre variabile, n situaia n care, din punct de vedere economic, ntre cele dou variabile exist o relaie de interdependen, n sensul c, variabila rezultativ (nivelul prelevrilor fiscale colectate) este influenat de variabila independent (dinamica ISD, defalcate pe surse de constituire). Metoda regresiei genereaz exprimarea analitic a funciei de regresie care sintetizeaz forma i sensul variaiei variabilei rezultative sub influena factorului independent. Regresia simpl presupune acceptarea unui singur factor independent, rezultnd o regresie unifactorial, iar regresia multipl presupune acceptarea mai multor factori independeni, genernd n acest caz o regresie multipl (multifactorial). Regresia liniar simpl estimat n cazul de fa presupune acceptarea existenei unei legturi de form liniar ntre variabilele dependente i independente, metoda regresiei permind estimarea parametrilor funciei de forma: yi = f(xi) = a + b * xi Parametrul b coeficientul de regresie, exprim sensul i mrimea influenei factorului independent asupra variabilei rezultative, valoarea pozitiv a acestuia confirmnd existena unei legturi directe. Mrimea parametrului b arat cu ct se modific variabila rezultativ la creterea cu o unitate a variabilei independente. Pentru finalizarea respectivului demers am utilizat instrumentarul econometric uzual folosit de majoritatea autorilor din literatura de specialitate pentru prelucrarea datelor2, iar referitor la setul de indicatori analizai acetia sunt prezentai distinct n cele ce urmeaz.
www.eurostat.eu. Datele prelucrate n vederea analizei au fost preluate din baza de date oficial a Comisiei Europene, www.eurostat.eu
2 1
213
Aa cum am menionat anterior, am testat econometric tria legturii dintre evoluia nivelului ISD nregistrat n Romnia i prelevrile fiscale colectate la Bugetul de stat pe fondul confirmrii posibilitii influenrii evoluiei prelevrilor fiscale prin intermediul ISD. Utiliznd modelul regresiv liniar unifactorial redat mai jos am testat cu ajutorul metodei de modelare econometric, prin folosirea metodei celor mai mici ptrate, existena unei legturi de tip cauz-efect ntre nivelul ISD i cuantumul prelevrilor fiscale colectate n Romnia n perioada 1995-2008. n urma utilizrii unui model econometric s-a determinat o relaie ntre variabila dependent notat TOTAL_TAX_RO reprezentnd nivelul cuantumului prelevrilor fiscale colectate i nivelul ISD nregistrate n Romnia defalcate pe surse de provenien: FDI_D Investiii strine directe realizate de investitori din Germania; FDI_F Investiii strine directe realizate de investitori din Frana; FDI_USA Investiii strine directe realizate de investitori din Statele Unite; FDI_A Investiii strine directe realizate de investitori din Austria, de forma: TOTAL_TAX_RO = 8.202,71 + 7,4288 * FDI_D relaia nr. 1 TOTAL_TAX_RO = 7.815,80 + 5,9633 * FDI_F relaia nr. 2 TOTAL_TAX_RO = 4.255,21 + 35,5244 * FDI_USA relaia nr. 3 TOTAL_TAX_RO = 10.370,18 + 4,3669 * FDI_A relaia nr. 4 Tabelul nr. 1. Nivelul ISD-urilor nregistrate n Romnia defalcate pe surse de provenien - milioane euro Indicatori 2008 2009 2010 2011 20123 FDI_D 7 509 6 718 6 398 6 272 5886 FDI_F 4 294 4 259 4 384 5 042 4981 FDI_USA 869 1 054 1 349 1 420 1592 FDI_A 9 186 9 037 9 346 9 667 9690
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000
FDI_D
2000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FDI_F FDI_USA FDI_A
Figura nr. 1. Nivelul ISD-urilor nregistrate n Romnia defalcate pe surse de provenien, n perioada 2008 - 2012
3
Date previzionate
214
Pe baza datelor disponibile care prezint nivelul i evoluia ISD din Romnia n perioada 2003-2012, defalcate pe principalele sectoare ale activitii economice industria extractiv, industria prelucrtoare, comer, hoteluri i restaurante, IT, financiar/asigurri i transporturi s-a analizat din punct de vedere econometric existena unei legturi funcionale ntre variabila independent (reprezentat de nivelul ISD n Romnia) i variabila rezultativ (reprezentat de prelevrile fiscale colectate la Bugetul de stat), cu meniunea c, i acestea sunt caracterizate n structur (impozitarea direct - impozit pe venit i impozit pe profit, impozitarea indirect - TVA i prghiile parafiscale - prelevrile fiscale). Analiza ntreprins a constat n determinarea sensului i intensitii legturii de tip cauz efect ntre variabilele independente i variabila rezultativ, prin utilizarea modelelor multifactoriale prezentate n cuprinsul prezentei lucrri. ntr-o prim etap s-a urmrit determinarea impactului ISD nregistrate n Romnia n perioada 2003-2012 asupra impozitrii directe, respectiv caracterizarea sensului i intensitii impactului ISD asupra nivelului impozitului pe profit i a impozitului pe venit colectate la Bugetul de stat. Tabelul nr. 1. Modelarea impozitelor pe profit i pe venit i a PIB-ului, sub impactul evoluiei ISD n Romnia - milioane euro -
215
Figura nr. 2. Evoluia valorii impozitelor pe venit i pe profit, a investiiilor strine directe i a Produsului Intern Brut n perioada 2003 2012 n ceea ce privete determinarea impactului ISD nregistrate n Romnia n perioada 2003- 2002 asupra prghiilor parafiscale (contribuii sociale), cercetrile ntreprinse au infirmat eventualele legturi funcionale existente ntre nivelul ISD i prelevrile parafiscale, pe considerentul faptului c funcia de regresie redat n relaia nr. 3 nu a fost validat din punct de vedere statistic. Similar situaiei identificate n cazul impozitrii indirecte, se constat c modificrile structurale ale nivelului ISD totale se resimt asupra dinamicii contribuiilor sociale colectate la Bugetul de stat: Tabelul nr. 2. Evoluia contribuiilor sociale sub impactul evoluiei ISD n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD CONTRIB 2003 9662 45 2004 15040 29 2005 21885 34 2006 34512 125 2007 42770 168 2008 48798 167 2009 49984 138 2010 52585 135 2011 55139 57 2012 67127 137
n cazul impozitrii indirecte, concluziile desprinse au confirmat faptul c modelul unifactorial construit (yi= f(xi) = a + bxi) poate fi considerat pentru a
decide, la nivel macroeconomic, legtura dintre nivelul ISD totale i dinamica taxei pe valoarea adugat, pe fondul validrii funciei de regresie, de forma: Tabelul nr. 3. Evoluia taxei pe valoarea adugat colectate la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD TVA 2003 9662 2542 2004 15040 2781 2005 21885 3594 2006 34512 7877 2007 42770 9362 2008 48798 11099 2009 49984 8100 2010 52585 9322 2011 55139 11307 2012 67127 11845
IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO = 630,99 + 0,4567 * IND_PREL Relaia nr. 5 Variabila dependent: IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO Redm n continuare, n tabele sintetice, evoluia corelat dintre obligaiile fiscale i volumul investiiilor strine directe, n perioada 2003 2012: Tabelul nr. 4. Evoluia impozitului pe venit colectat la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n industria prelucrtoare n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD ind.prelucr. IMP_VENIT 2003 2382 1418 2004 2929 1753 2005 3117 1841 2006 4426 2763 2007 5346 4144 2008 5733 4996 2009 3656 4377 2010 3029 4241 2011 4129 4447 2012 4251 5121
IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO = 1.503,58 + 1,006 * COMERT Relaia nr. 6 Variabila dependent: IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO Tabelul nr. 5. Evoluia impozitului pe venit colectat la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n comer n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD comer IMP_VENIT 2003 1305 1418 2004 1525 1753 2005 2025 1841 2006 2838 2763 2007 3840 4144 2008 3911 4996 2009 2118 4377 2010 1625 4241 2011 1980 4447 2012 2432 5121
IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO = 3.741,75 + 0,7594 * CONSTR Relaia nr. 7 Variabila dependent: IMP_VENIT_EUR_RO Tabelul nr. 6. Evoluia impozitului pe venit colectat la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n construcii n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD constructii IMP_VENIT 2003 912 1418 2004 822 1753 2005 1261 1841 2006 2759 2763 2007 3443 4144 2008 3676 4996 2009 2165 4377 2010 2192 4241 2011 2985 4447 2012 3188 5121
TVA_EUR_RO = 1.401,79 + 0,5209 * IND_PREL Relaia nr. 8 Variabila dependent: TVA_EUR_RO

Tabelul nr. 7. Evoluia taxei pe valoarea adugat colectate la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n industria prelucrtoare n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD ind.prelucr. TVA 2003 2382 2542 2004 2929 2781 2005 3117 3594 2006 4426 7877 2007 5346 9362 2008 5733 11099 2009 3656 8100 2010 3029 9322 2011 4129 11307 2012 4251 11845
TVA_EUR_RO = 2.333,569 + 1,1615 * COMERT Relaia nr. 9 Variabila dependent: TVA_EUR_RO Tabelul nr. 8. Evoluia taxei pe valoarea adugat colectate la buget sub impactul evoluiei ISD n comer n Romnia - milioane euro Indicatori ISD comer TVA 2003 1305 2542 2004 1525 2781 2005 2025 3594 2006 2838 7877 2007 3840 9362 2008 3911 11099 2009 2118 8100 2010 1625 9322 2011 1980 11307 2012 2432 11845
3. Corelalaia dintre investiiile strine directe i principalele taxe i impozite Pentru a reflecta relaia existent ntre evoluia prelevrilor de impozite i cea a investiiilor strine directe, structurate pe principalele domenii de activitate, am utilizat modelele de regresie multipl. Un prim astfel de model utilizeaz drept variabil rezultativ valoarea impozitului pe venit, iar ca variabile explicative valoarea investiiilor strine directe din comer, construcii i industrie.
218
n urma analizei efectuate asupra unei serii ce cuprinde date din perioada 2003 2012, rezultatele obinute cu ajutorul programului informatic Eviews se prezint astfel:
Pe baza celor prezentate mai sus, modelul de regresie multipl poate fi transcris dup cum urmeaz: IMP_VEN = 1484,48 0,73 COM + 1,79 ISD_CONS 0,11 ISD_IND Dup cum se poate observa, n perioada analizat doar investiiile strine directe din domeniul construciilor au adus un aport la creterea ncasrilor bugetare din impozitele pe venit. Astfel, se remarc faptul c pentru fiecare unitate monetar investit n sectorul de activitate amintit se produce o cretere cu 1,79 uniti monetare a impozitului pe venit. Celelalte categorii de investiii strine directe nu au condus la creteri ale nivelului impozitelor pe venit. De asemenea, se poate observa faptul c termenul liber inclus n model are o valoare foarte ridicat, ceea ce ne permite s afirmm c exist i ali factori ce influeneaz semnificativ evoluia ncasrilor din impozitul pe venit. n ceea ce privete valabilitatea modelului, se poate concluziona c aceasta se ncadreaz n limite acceptabile, probabilitatea asociat acestuia find de aproximativ 83%, ceea ce permite utilizarea sa n analizele macroeconomice. n continuare, am utilizat aceeai metodologie de analiz pentru a evidenia influena categoriilor de investiiilor strine directe asupra ncasrilor din taxa pe valoare adugat:
Rezultatele obinute n urma acestei cercetri sunt reflectate n urmtoarea figur:
n acest caz, modelul de regresie ce utilizeaz drept variabil rezultativ valoarea ncasrilor de TVA se prezint astfel: TVA 1830,6 + 0,13 ISD_IND 2,39 ISD_COM + 4,74 ISD_CONS Din analiza efectuat pot fi sintetizate o serie de concluzii, dup cum urmeaz: Investiiile strine directe din domeniul construciilor induc o cretere semnificativ a valorii taxei pe valoare adugat colectat la bugetul de stat (pentru
220
o unitate monetar investit rezult o cretere cu 4,74 uniti monetare a valorii TVA); Investiiile strine directe din industrie conduc la o cretere relativ minor a ncasrilor de TVA (0,13 uniti monetare pentru fiecare unitate monetar investit); Valoarea foarte mare a termenului liber reflect faptul c exist i ali factori cu influen semnificativ asupra evoluiei ncasrilor din TVA, factori ce nu au fost luai n considerare la momentul construciei modelului de analiz; Probabilitatea asociat acestui model este de circa 98%, cu un grad de risc practic nul, ceea ce l face perfect compatibil pentru utilizarea pe scar larg n analizele efectuate la nivel macroeconomic. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti Anghelache, C., Mitru, C. (coordonatori), Bugudui, E., Deatcu, C. (2009) Econometrie: studii teoretice i practice, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic econometric, Editura Meteor Press www. Bnr.ro
221
Provocri privind creterea capacitii Sistemului Statistic Naional

Prof. univ. dr. Ioan PARTACHI Academia de Studii Economice a Moldovei Prof. univ. dr. Marin DINU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Drd. Oleg CARA Academia de Studii Economice a Moldovei Abstract The authors offer a broad view of the National Statistical System, emphasizing the desired improvement in capacities and performance, and outlining the major provocations the system is subjected to. Topics as priorities, legal framework adaptation, international cooperation, internal coordination and collaboration are permanently taken into consideration by professionals inside the system. Key words: adaptation, framework, criteria, coordination, data JEL Classification: C18, C10
Adaptarea metodelor i practicilor statisticii oficiale la standardele internaionale, inclusiv ale UE, presupune o activitate comprehensiv, de durat, cu intens dimensiune de cercetare-dezvoltare. Dup cum menioneaz savantul romn C.Anghelache, ...adesea, se crede c problemele strategiei statisticii oficiale pot fi rezolvate prin rearanjri organizaionale, cnd, n realitate, soluionarea lor necesit alte instrumente, cum ar fi conducere capabil i inspirat, personal calificat, aplicarea metodelor i tehnicilor corespunztoare, bun-sim i mult munc1. Care ar fi soluiile pentru a face fa provocrilor de satisfacere a cerinelor informaionale n cretere ale utilizatorilor interni i ale celor externi n statistic de calitate, comparabil la nivel european? Am putea specifica urmtoarele prioriti majore: Dezvoltarea capacitilor instituionale, coordonrii i cooperrii n cadrul Sistemului Statistic Naional i cu partenerii de peste hotare. mbuntirea comunicrii, relaiilor cu utilizatorii de informaie statistic i accesului la fondul disponibil de date statistice. Renovarea sistemului de producie statistic i de diseminare a informaiei.
1
Anghelache, C. (2008) Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic, Editura Economic, Bucureti
222
Activitatea instituiilor din cadrul SSN, producerea i diseminarea statisticilor oficiale trebuie s corespund strict Principiilor Fundamentale ale Statisticii Oficiale, adoptate de ctre Comisia Statistic a ONU pe data de 14 aprilie 1994, precum i principiilor stipulate n Codul de Bune Practici al Statisticilor Europene, adoptat de Comitetul Sistemului Statistic European prin decizia din 28 septembrie 2011. mbuntirea coordonrii i cooperrii n cadrul SSN, comunicrii i relaiilor cu partenerii din avalul i amontele fluxului informaional, utilizarea extins a metodelor statistice avansate, bazate pe aplicarea noilor tehnologii IT constituie factorii-cheie n consolidarea Sistemului Statistic Naional. ntru atingerea obiectivelor susmenionate, este necesar realizarea unui complex de activiti, dintre care cele mai notabile, n viziunea autorului, sunt descrise mai jos. Dezvoltarea capacitilor instituionale, coordonrii i cooperrii n cadrul Sistemului Statistic Naional (SSN) i cu partenerii de peste hotare poate fi realizat prin: Aducerea cadrului legal n deplin corespundere cu CBP al UE, n special privind: Stabilirea prin lege, n vederea, n vederea consolidrii independenei profesionale i credibilitii organelor statistice, n corespundere cu bunele practici europene, a: mandatului deinut de conductor, altul dect cel al Guvernului, procedurilor clare de desemnare, inclusiv repetat, pe baz de criterii profesionale, a conductorului OCS. n corespundere cu experiena avansat a statelor UE, conductorul OCS este desemnat, pe o perioad ce depete perioada instituirii Guvernului (conform bunelor practici internaionale, de regul, pe 5-7 ani), cu proceduri clare, transparente, pe criterii strict profesionale. Ajustarea cadrului legislativ ntru soluionarea problemelor de ordin juridic privind accesul la unele SAD (interzis sau limitat de ctre unele legi specifice: Codul Fiscal, Legea cu privire la registre, Legea privind protecia datelor cu caracter personal etc.). Extinderea i facilitarea accesului la micro-date n scopuri de cercetare-dezvoltare, n condiiile asigurrii confidenialitii i proteciei datelor statistice, inclusiv pe baza crerii camerei securizate. Perfecionarea coordonrii i colaborrii n cadrul Sistemului Statistic Naional, prin:
223
revitalizarea activitii Consiliului pentru Statistic, ntru promovarea produciei, diseminrii statisticilor oficiale, comunicrii cu utilizatorii, precum i a culturii statistice, delimitarea funciilor i competenelor de producere i diseminare a statisticilor oficiale, pe domenii i produse statistice ntre instituiile SSN, stabilirea procedurii clare de atribuire datelor statistice a statutului de statistic oficial, elaborarea/aprobarea listei statisticilor oficiale cu standardizarea i asigurarea accesului la aceste date de o manier facil i comod pentru utilizatori, crearea Comisiei(lor) de avizare metodologic, crearea Comisiei de examinare a chestiunilor privind confidenialitatea datelor. Crearea compartimentelor statistice n cadrul tuturor instituiilor cu funcii de producere i diseminare a statisticilor oficiale, care, n corespundere cu art.7 al Legii cu privire la statistica oficial, deopotriv cu BNS i OTS constituie organele statisticii oficiale (OSO). Activitatea profesional a acestora trebuie s fie bazat pe respectarea prevederilor legii cu privire la statistica oficial. mbuntirea colaborrii organelor de producere a statisticii oficiale cu mediul academic n vederea: utilizrii mai active a rezultatelor cercetrilor tiinifice n domeniu n activitatea organelor statisticii oficiale, creterii orientrii aplicate a acestor cercetri, realizrii de proiecte comune de cercetare-dezvoltare n domeniul statisticii, atragerii, conform experienei avansate a altor state, a instituiilor de cercetri tiinifice la compilarea unor date statistice, asigurrii mai complete a cercettorilor cu informaie statistic, inclusiv la micro-date (cu respectarea principiului confidenialitii), pregtirii specialitilor de nalt calificare n domeniul statisticii i TIC, cu cunotine ample teoretice i deprinderi practice, perfecionrii cadrelor statistice. Optimizarea structurii organizaionale a BNS, n scopul consolidrii aparatului central i eficientizrii activitii organelor teritoriale de statistic, prin: Perfecionarea structurii BNS, cu:
224
crearea subdiviziunii de statistic a ntreprinderilor (care ar reuni structurile responsabile de statistici economice sectoriale); fortificarea subdiviziunii metode statistice din cadrul BNS; Crearea direciilor regionale pentru statistic (n baza a 6 - 8 organe teritoriale existente) cu concentrarea unor funcii specifice, realizate n prezent de ctre OTS (de organizare a culegerii datelor cercetrilor n gospodrii, de verificare i validare a datelor primare etc.); Instituionalizarea i consolidarea managementului calitii n statistic. mbuntirea sistemului de management al resurselor umane n cadrul SSN prin: Dezvoltarea unui sistem modern de pregtire statistic metode clasice i e-learning - pentru personalul din SSN; Perfecionarea continu a cadrelor n utilizarea metodologiilor, metodelor i practicilor statistice moderne; promovarea cunoaterii limbilor strine, n special a celei engleze; Elaborarea materialelor metodice pentru pregtire n scopul dezvoltrii cunotinelor n domeniul statisticii i al promovrii culturii statistice; Dezvoltarea parteneriatelor naionale i internaionale n domeniul formrii profesionale continue; Instituionalizarea pregtirii cadrelor n domeniul statistic i TIC. O soluie ar putea fi crearea unui Centru de pregtire continu a cadrelor, cu extinderea ulterioar a activitii de cercetare-dezvoltare a acestuia; Elaborarea i lansarea unui sistem de eviden a consumului de timp i de elaborare a costurilor produselor statistice principale; mbuntirea procesului de planificare statistic, n special privind finanarea programelor statistice i organelor teritoriale de statistic (OTS); dezvoltarea, n acest scop, a instrumentelor de evaluare i monitorizare a ncrcturii medii a personalului statistic i repartizarea optimal a resurselor ntre OTS; Perfecionarea sistemului de motivare a personalului, pe baza performanelor obinute;
225
Promovarea atribuirii BNS a competenelor de redistribuire a posturilor, n limita efectivului de personalul aprobat pe sistem. Dezvoltarea cooperrii internaionale n domeniul statisticii, att cu organizaiile internaionale, ct i cu instituiile de profil din alte state. Promovarea valorilor comune, mprtirea cunotinelor, precum i nfiinarea i dezvoltarea de instrumente, procese i structuri comune, ar contribui esenial la reducerea timpului i costurilor n depirea dificultilor comune. Astfel, este oportun suplimentarea armonizrii produselor cu armonizarea proceselor prin promovarea metodologiilor bazate pe instrumente comune la nivel internaional i regional (al UE). mbuntirea comunicrii, relaiilor cu utilizatorii de informaie statistic i accesului la fondul disponibil de date statistice. Valorificarea mai bun a datelor statistice trebuie s se bazeze att pe furnizarea informaiei de calitate, cu utilizarea mijloacelor moderne de diseminare, transparena metodologiei, procedeelor statistice aplicate, ct i pe comunicarea mbuntit cu consumatorii de statistici, promovarea culturii statistice. Anume, comunicarea mai activ, prietenoas i permanent va permite sporirea relevanei, respectiv, a eficienei activitii statistice. Astfel, este necesar implementarea unui mecanism eficient de comunicare i diseminare, care ar favoriza utilizarea adecvat, activ i utilitatea nalt a informaiei statistice ntru binele societii, credibilitatea i imaginea mbuntit, pe bun merit, a statisticii oficiale. n acest sens, este oportun realizarea, de ctre BNS, a unor astfel de activiti: Asigurarea accesului extins al utilizatorilor la datele i metadatele statistice (metodologiile de calcul a indicatorilor statistici i metodele de organizare a cercetrilor statistice) prin: dezvoltarea bazei de date pentru diseminare PX Web; creterea numrului de serii din banca de date, inclusiv privind statistica regional, extinderea metadatelor descrise n standardul unic, elaborat n corespundere cu ESMS/SDMX, aplicat n cadrul UE, cu acoperea produselor statistice relevante i integrarea acestora n sistemul de producie i diseminare a informaiei statistice, extinderea metodelor de prezentare vizual a datelor, n special pe baza GIS, Analiza minuioas a utilizrii datelor statistice oficiale de ctre utilizatori n vederea identificrii i reacionrii mai prompte la interpretri eronate sau la folosirea neadecvat a statisticilor oficiale, Crearea, n perspectiv, a facilitilor de camer securizat pentru facilitarea i securizarea accesului fizic la date individuale anonimizate, pentru scopuri tiinifice,
Organizarea meselor rotunde, seminarelor pentru utilizatori privind utilizarea informaiei produse de BNS, Organizarea regulat, cu periodicitate nu mai mic de o dat la 3-4 ani, a studiilor gradului de satisfacie a utilizatorilor cu informaie statistic, Instituirea comisiei privind confidenialitatea datelor statistice, Promovarea educaiei i culturii statistice a utilizatorilor, inclusiv a populaiei pentru a crete gradul de contientizare i utilizare a informaiei statistice; organizarea cursurilor speciale pentru jurnaliti, studeni i elevi; elaborarea, n acest scop, de materiale ntr-o form atractiv i uor de neles. Renovarea sistemului de producie statistic i de diseminare a informaiei. Eforturi importante ale BNS i ale altor instituii din cadrul SSN sunt necesare de a fi depuse ntru adaptarea, n continuare, a sistemului de producie i diseminare a datelor statistice la cererea n cretere de informaie statistic relevant, fiabil, coerent, comparabil la nivel european i uor accesibil pentru utilizatori, n condiiile evitrii sarcinii de rspuns excesive asupra respondenilor. Exist o necesitate stringent de revizuire substanial a ntregului sistem statistic naional, cu scopul mbuntirii coerenei dintre cercetrile statistice individuale, creterii eficienei sistemului, perfecionrii calitii datelor diseminate, reducerii sarcinii de rspuns asupra respondenilor. Sarcinile majore n acest domeniu sunt: Renovarea, pe etape, a Sistemului Informatic Statistic (SIS), care asigur procesarea i diseminarea informaiei statistice. Sistemul tehnologiilor informaionale (TI) actual este un factor critic, care nu corespunde necesitilor informaionale la zi i, astfel, necesit ajustare esenial pentru asigurarea suportului necesar provocrilor de dezvoltare a produciei i diseminrii informaiei statistice. Astfel, este necesar reformarea arhitecturii SIS, care presupune trecerea de la metoda tradiional de tip furnal (engl.- stove pipe) la sistem informaional orientat pe procese business , pe baza: standardizrii i unificrii metodelor, instrumentelor i tehnicilor aplicate n activitatea statistic; dezvoltrii cu integrarea n SIS a registrelor statistice, n special a Registrului Unitilor Statistice nucleului sistemului cercetrilor statistice ale activitii agenilor economici; crerii i dezvoltrii Sistemului Metainformaional cu utilizarea standardelor SDMX; elaborrii i implementrii soluiei de stocare central a datelor, inclusiv a metadatelor (depozitului central de date), de unde vor fi generate produsele de diseminare. implementrii metodelor moderne de colectare i introducere a datelor, n special prin i) crearea i meninerea funcionalitii portalului e-statistica al BNS pentru asigurarea prezentrii rapoartelor statistice on-line de ctre respondeni; ii) utilizarea metodelor de recunoatere i scanare a datelor din chestionarele statistice; precum i iii) dezvoltarea i punerea n practic a metodelor alternative
de colectare i verificare a datelor - colectare cu utilizarea calculatoarelor (CAPI), prin telefon (CAPI), pot, Internet etc. - pentru reducerea sarcinii de rspuns i pentru creterea calitii datelor colectate; extinderii utilizrii i integrrii n procesul statistic a unor asemenea instrumente moderne de producie i analiz statistic, precum sunt aplicaiile SPSS, SAS; instruirii continue a personalului n domeniul tehnologiilor informaionale. Integrarea proceselor de producie, care erau anterior separate (de tip furnal), trebuie s fie bazat pe o infrastructur (tehnic) comun, pe aplicarea aplicaiilor informatice standardizate pentru procesarea, stocarea i diseminarea datelor. n acest sens, necesit a fi investigat modul n care informaiile din diverse surse pot fi exploatate n diverse scopuri, eliminnd diferenele metodologice, uniformiznd clasificrile statistice etc. Astfel, SIS trebuie s prevad: proceduri universale de colectare i procesare a informaiei primare n vederea asigurrii adaptabilitii facile a soluiei modificrii necesitilor BNS; unificarea procedurilor de proiectare a rapoartelor i colectare a informaiei primare n cadrul instituiei; asigurarea proteciei datelor i confidenialitii statistice; utilizarea n cretere a tehnologiilor web de ctre organele teritoriale de statistic, utilizarea electronic direct n scopuri statistice a datelor din sistemele informaionale ale respondenilor, crearea facilitilor de camer securizat pentru accesul mai facil i securizat al cercettorilor la microdate, fiind asigurat confidenialitatea statistic a acestora. Utilizarea mai activ a datelor administrative relevante producerii informaiei statistice. n acest scop, este necesar, n strns colaborare cu deintorii SAD: Analiza minuioas a posibilitii utilizrii n scopuri statistice a surselor administrative de date (SAD) deinute de autoritile publice i alte instituii sub aspectul coninutului, precum i a corespunderii datelor n cauz cerinelor statistice specifice, inclusiv de calitate (privind noiunile, definiiile utilizate, cuprinderea/unitile nregistrate, periodicitatea colectrii/actualizrii). Soluionarea problemelor de ordin juridic, ce in n special de contradiciile dintre art. 19 al Legii cu privire la statistica oficial, care ofer dreptul de acces al BNS la datele administrative, inclusiv la cele individuale i prevederile altor legi, care l limiteaz (Codul Fiscal, Legea cu privire la registre, Legea privind protecia datelor cu caracter personal etc.); Asigurarea accesului fizic al BNS la date individuale din SAD necesare statisticii privind:
documentarea populaiei (Registrul de stat al populaiei, aflat n gestiunea Ministerului Tehnologiei Informaiei i Comunicaiilor); datele fiscale, deinute de IFPS; datele privind personalul i calcularea contribuiilor de asigurri sociale, deinute de CNAS; deintorii unitilor de transport i testarea tehnic a mijloacelor de transport etc.; migraia internaional, deinute de MAI (Poliia de Frontier) etc. Evaluarea n mod sistematic (sub aspectul oportunitii utilizrii, dar i controlului calitii) a surselor administrative n vederea utilizrii acestora la producerea statisticilor oficiale; Colaborarea i acordarea suportului deintorilor SAD relevante pentru statistic n vederea crerii, ajustrii/apropierii coninutului registrelor administrative cerinelor statistice privind: caracteristicile i noiunile utilizate n SAD, plenitudinea, actualizarea acestora, modalitatea de obinere a micro-datelor etc. n acest sens, este important, de exemplu, crearea bazei de date centralizate privind testarea tehnic a mijloacelor de transport (n prezent o asemenea baz unic, comprehensiv, care ar alimenta i Registrul unitilor de transport cu date fiabile i actuale lipsete, dei este valoroas att din considerente statistice, ct i administrative), fapt ce nu permite obinerea unui cadru exhaustiv pentru cercetarea activitii de transport rutier a persoanelor fizice. Este necesar, de asemenea, elaborarea metadatelor de referin pentru SAD utilizate n scopuri statistice. Colaborarea cu agenii economici n vederea prelurii directe a datelor statistice primare din sistemele de eviden contabil (SIEC) a ntreprinderilor (de exemplu, a datelor privind preurile cu amnuntul de la ntreprinderile de comer, pentru calcularea, pe baza acestora, a IPC). Reconsiderarea procesului statistic de producie n vederea utilizrii maximale a datelor din SAD i SIEC, colectrii electronice a datelor primare de la respondeni i integrarea acestora (cu operarea ajustrilor necesare) n ciclul tehnologic de producie statistic. Optimizarea sistemului de cercetri statistice pentru colectarea datelor care nu pot fi obinute din SAD i din sistemele de eviden contabil a ntreprinderilor. n aceast activitate, accentul urmeaz a fi pus pe: Caracterul complementar al cercetrilor statistice la sursele administrative de date i la cele care pot fi furnizate direct din sistemele de eviden contabil ale entitilor, Revizuirea, n colaborare strns cu principalii utilizatori, a sistemului de indicatori statistici (i observri) i implementarea celor noi, prioritare pentru ar, n corespundere cu bunele practici europene, Implementarea pe scar larg a cercetrilor statistice prin sondaj a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii i combinarea acestora cu nregistrrile totale,
Perfecionarea chestionarelor statistice n corespundere cu cerinele SCN i innd cont de cele ale standardelor naionale de contabilitate, n scopul facilitrii, completrii calitative a acestora de ctre agenii economici. O activitate de mare anvergur n domeniu urmeaz a fi: Realizarea Recensmntului Populaiei i Locuinelor, runda 2010, n corespundere cu recomandrile CEE a ONU, Finalizarea procesrii datelor primului Recensmntului General Agricol (RGA), realizat n 2011, Crearea Registrului productorilor agricoli, pe baza datelor RGA, care va servi drept baz de sondaj solid pentru organizarea cercetrilor statistice n agricultur, Redesignul sistemului statistic al cercetrilor micilor productori agricoli (CMPA), pe baza datelor RGA, Crearea sistemului integru al statisticii ntreprinderilor, bazat pe dezvoltarea i implementarea cercetrii integrate infraanuale i anuale a unitilor de business, Lansarea studiului privind autorizaiile de construcie, pe baza SAD, Lansarea cercetrii cererii turistice, Redesignul cercetrii preurilor n construcii, Dezvoltarea i implementarea altor cercetri relevante conform cerinelor UE etc. Implementarea elaborrii de statistici noi, armonizate cu standardele UE, relevante pentru ara noastr, i perfecionarea metodologiilor statistice conform propunerilor expuse, pe domeniile statistice analizate, n special privind: sistemul conturilor naionale: ajustarea metodologiei conform SCN ONU 1998 i ESA UE 2010; calcularea Produsului Regional Brut (PRB); elaborarea contului financiar; calcularea productivitii muncii; estimarea produciei ilegale. statistica preurilor: perfecionarea metodologiei i armonizarea calculrii IPC i indicilor preurilor n construcii, industrie, agricultur, comer i servicii. - statistica comerului exterior de mrfuri: elaborarea datelor conform caracteristicilor ntreprinderilor (pe activiti economice, conform CAEM, pe clase de mrime a ntreprinderilor, inclusiv sectorul micului business etc.). statistica agriculturii: elaborarea balanelor principalelor grupe de produse agricole, tipologiei exploataiilor agricole conform recomandrilor UE, etc.; Statistica ntreprinderilor: statistica industriei: calcularea indicelui cifrei de afaceri, indicelui comenzilor noi n industrie; statistica investiiilor n capital fix i construciilor: elaborarea statisticilor privind investiiile brute n capital fix; perfecionarea metodologiei de calculul i cercetrii ICC; elaborarea statisticilor noi privind autorizaiile de construcie;
230
statistica comerului i serviciilor: perfecionarea calculului indicelui de volum al cifrei de afaceri n comerul cu amnuntul, pe baza dezvoltrii i punerii n aplicare a metodologiei de calcul a indicelui deflator, la nivel dezagregat i pe total activitate; elaborarea metodologiei de calcul al indicelui deflator i implementarea calculului indicelui de volum al cifrei de afaceri pentru servicii; statistica turismului: elaborarea statisticilor privind cererea turistic; calcularea indicatorilor STS cu ajustare la numrul zilelor lucrtoare i sezonier (indicele produciei industriale, indicele volumului n construcii, indicele cifrei de afaceri n comer (n preuri curente i comparabile); Statistici intersectoriale: elaborarea statisticilor lips n corespundere cu bunele practici europene privind: sectorul TIC (ponderea n: PIB/VAB; populaia ocupat/numrul de angajai etc.); activitatea de cercetare-dezvoltare i inovare a unitilor economice; mediul; statistica regional (PRB, statistici structurale cu relevan regional, ali indicatori economici i sociali, pe regiuni economice). Dezvoltarea, n continuare, n comun cu instituiile partenere, a sistemului clasificrilor statistice. Printre lucrrile majore de realizat n domeniu, sunt: Implementarea, n practica statistic a Moldovei, a versiunilor naionale, actualizate ale: clasificrii Activitilor, aliniate la NACE, Rev.2 (deja aprobate la nivel naional) i a Clasificatorului Statistic al Produselor din Moldova, aliniat la CPA, 2008. - nomenclatorului produciei industriale PRODCOM, versiunea 2011, clasificrii COICOP, nomenclatorului mrfurilor, conform versiunilor 2012 ale HS i CN. Elaborarea, n comun cu instituiile partenere, a noilor versiuni naionale ale clasificrilor, n corespundere cu standardele internaionale: clasificrii ISCED 2011, clasificrii ISCO 2008 etc. n scopul crerii condiiilor necesare dezvoltrii regionale a Moldovei (inclusiv prin atragerea fondurilor UE), o activitate important va reveni colaborrii BNS cu instituiile de resort n vederea elaborrii nomenclatorului naional aliniat la nomenclatorul statistic al unitilor teritoriale al UE NUTS (pentru eligibilitate de a aplica la fondurile respective ale UE). Este de menionat volumul important de lucrri, necesar de ntreprins n vederea elaborrii i, mai ales, implementrii clasificrilor, n special celui al activitilor economice NACE Rev.2. Totodat, punerea n aplicare a acestora este strict necesar pentru alinierea statisticilor la standardele actuale ale UE. n plus, implementarea, de exemplu, a NACE Rev.2 va permite obinerea informaiei
absolut noi - privind indicatorii dezvoltrii informaionale pentru sectorul TIC, informaie care, n prezent, lipsete, dar este strict necesar i solicitat de ctre utilizatorii din ar. Consolidarea activitii ce ine de formarea bazelor de sondaj actualizate pentru cercetarea: ntreprinderilor - prin fortificarea Registrului naional al unitilor statistice - RENUS, care trebuie s constiuie sursa i instrumentul de baz pentru realizarea observrilor unitilor economice i sociale; gospodriilor casnice - pe baza datelor Recensmntului Populaiei i Locuinelor din 2014 i SAD relevante (privind persoanele ce beneficiaz de servicii de aprovizionare cu energia electric, deinute de companiile de distribuie; Registrul de stat al populaiei, aflat n gestiunea de MTIC etc.); gospodriilor agricole - pe baza crerii Registrului productorilor agricoli, conform datelor RGA 2011, actualizat n corespundere cu datele statistice i administrative relevante (deinute de autoritile publice locale, MAIA); - activitii transportului rutier de mrfuri deinut de persoanele fizice pe baza crerii i asigurrii accesului la SAD fiabile despre autovehiculele care au susinut testarea tehnic,etc. Pentru completarea i perfecionarea RENUS, este necesar soluionarea problemei viznd accesul la SAD relevante, n special la datele despre contribuabilii la bugetul public naional, deinute de IFPS, CNAS etc. Necesit a fi realizat pe baza unui nou complex de software. Dezvoltarea metodelor statistice, n special: - Implementarea metodelor avansate de identificare a abaterilor, verificare, validare, i imputare a micro-datelor; - Dezvoltarea, n continuare, a tehnicilor de eantionare, redresare i calibrare; - Analiza aprofundat a erorilor ce nu in de procesul de eantionare (nonrspunsurilor, erorilor de acoperire); - mbuntirea monitorizrii i evalurii activitii operatorilor de interviu; - Implementarea, pe scar larg, a analizei seriilor de timp ale principalilor indicatori economici; ajustarea la zilele de munc i sezonier la calcularea statisticilor business pe termen scurt; - Dezvoltarea metodelor de recalculare a seriilor de timp, n retrospectiv, n cazurile implementrii noilor metodologii statistice; - Explorarea posibilitilor de utilizare la elaborarea statisticilor a informaiilor pariale, pe baza tehnicilor de imputare i modelare. Intensificarea activitii n vederea reducerii refuzurilor respondenilor de a participa la observrile statistice, n special: - Promovarea, prin activiti publicitare, a importanei participrii gospodriilor n cercetrile statistice realizate de organele statisticii oficiale i furnizrii datelor primare calitative, inclusiv cu sprijinul APC i APL; - Lansarea metodelor moderne de organizare a colectrii datelor de la gospodrii, precum i entiti, prin implementarea metodelor CATI, CAPI;
Crearea sistemului de management al calitii n corespundere cu recomandrile i bunele practici europene. Calitatea informaiei statistice este determinat de buna desfurare a activitilor la toate etapele de producere a datelor statistice: colectarea, prelucrarea, stocarea datelor primare i compilarea indicatorilor statistici. Evaluarea i monitorizarea calitii realizrii proceselor statistice i a produselor obinute vor contribui la alinierea statisticii naionale la standardele de calitate ale UE, iar transparena mai bun va favoriza credibilitatea i utilitatea datelor statistice. Recomandri privind consolidarea managementului calitii : Fortificarea subdiviziunii BNS responsabile pentru promovarea i implementarea noilor instrumente i tehnici ntru asigurarea i monitorizarea calitii proceselor de producie, Elaborarea manualului calitii, documentaiei care s serveasc ca instrument general pentru toate cercetrile statistice, Elaborarea i implementarea utilizrii parametrilor de calitate pentru monitorizarea calitii produciei statistice, Implementarea n practica statistic a rapoartelor de calitate privind realizarea cercetrilor statistice etc. n vederea msurrii i monitorizrii sarcinii de rspuns asupra entitilor, este oportun lansarea studiilor respective, conform experienei avansate a statelor UE. Spre exemplu, n statele SSE sunt realizate, pe baz regulat, observrile cheltuielilor de timp ale respondenilor pentru participarea la studiile statistice. Informaiile cu privire la sarcina de rspuns/costurile de producie vor furniza elementele cantitative necesare pentru evaluarea cost-eficienei cerinelor impuse de instituiile statistice. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache C. (2008) Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic. Bucureti, Editura Economic Byfuglien J. Aplicarea i monitorizarea legislaiei europene cu privire la statistica oficial experiena Norvegiei. Conferina Armonizarea statisticii oficiale a Republicii Moldova cu standardele Uniunii Europene. Chiinu, 3 4 mai 2007 Voineagu V., Cara O., Dumitrescu I. Statistica oficial n societatea modern. n: Revista Romn de Statistic, 2010, nr.10, p. 20-28.
233
Noi paradigme de securitate n globalizare

Drd. Valentin BICHIR Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti Abstract The emergence of new patterns of conflict with globalization has led to the re-configuration of the security agreement and the emergence of a "new security paradigm" in recent years. Securing could still lead to neglect issues of governance and the creation (or re-creating) the state monopoly of force, becoming the main concern in situations of conflict, often through extraordinary measures leading to fracture and proliferation of conflicts rather than their closure. Key words: globalization, security, conflict, global economic crisis JEL Classification: F63, H56
1. Aspecte generale Apariia unor noi modele de conflict, mpreun cu procesul de globalizare a condus la re-configurarea nelegerii privind securitatea i apariia unei noi paradigme de securitate n ultimii ani. n cadrul acestei noi paradigme, securitatea nu este doar apanajul statului, ci reprezint o multitudine de actori. n acest sens, sar putea lua in considerare aplicarea conceptului de securitate. Sectoarele militare, politice, economice, sociale i de mediu sunt diferite domenii n care ar putea avea loc de securizarea. n cazul n care subiectul este de succes, securizarea este posibil pentru a legitima mijloacele extraordinare pentru a rezolva o problem perceput. Securizarea ar putea totui s conduc la neglijarea aspectelor legate de guvernan i la nfiinarea (sau re-crearea) de monopol de stat de for, devenind preocuparea principal n situaiile de conflict, adesea prin adoptarea unor msuri extraordinare care s conduc la fracturare i proliferarea conflictelor, mai degrab dect la ncheierea acestora. Privatizarea securitii n conformitate cu iniiativa de stat, n acest sens, poate fi privit ca o astfel de msur. Procesul de privatizare de securitate, cu toate acestea, chiar i atunci cnd e ncercat de ctre stat pentru a se ntri mpotriva disidenei, de multe ori se ncheie cu slbirea statului nsui. n timp ce diferitele categorii de furnizori de securitate privat ncearc s reconstituie scopul de a asigura stabilitate i securitate suficient pentru funcionarea normal i chiar de supravieuire a statului, ei totusi, elimin monopolul statului asupra violenei organizate. Tendina de securitate privatizat a cutat de asemenea s fie explicat ca rezultat al adoptrii de msuri neo-liberale de ctre state, chiar i n sectorul de securitate, n general, exprimat prin centralizarea i responsabilizarea privatizrii. ntr-o astfel de tendin, cu toate acestea, exist riscul de a viziona securitatea printr-o prism foarte ngust, care contrazice extinderea domeniului de aplicare . Protecia privatizrii evolueaz n acest context ca rspuns la noile nevoi
de securitate, statele nemafiind n msur s le acopere ntr-o manier corespunztoare. Fie c reprezint o soluie de durat, este o chestiune care este nc n curs de dezbtut intens. n timp ce tendina de privatizare a securitii este o parte din unitatea de ansamblu larg fa de privatizare i de deschiderea unor monopol de stat exclusiv n scopul de a aduce o mai mare eficien i expertiz, aceasta la rndul ei, conduce la o eroziune progresiv n identificarea cetenilor statului ca un punct central pentru loialitate i identitatea politic. Mai important, trebuie s se ia n considerare dac privatizarea de securitate prezint un pericol de autoritate a statului prin erodarea ntr-un moment n care se confrunt deja cu atacuri severe din interior. n aceast privin, operarea furnizorilor de securitate privat sau a grupurilor sponsorizate de stat mpotriva non-statalilor, mpotriva gruprilor generatoare de conflicte regionale, ar putea aciona ca proverbul sbii cu dou tiuri n generarea de i mai multe ameninri de securitate, mai degrab dect n rezolvarea acestora. Acest lucru ar avea implicaii serioase pentru dezvoltarea statelor sau naiunilor subdezvoltate din sud, cu structurile de stat slabe. Totu i, avnd n vedere tendinele globale i relevana n cretere strategic a ISP, utilizarea sa nu poate fi complet evitat. 2. Provocari, riscuri i amenin ri la adresa securit ii, n condi iile recesiunii economice i ale crizei financiare globale Potrivit unui raport realizat recent de Oxford Research Group, criza financiar global i recesiunile economice provocate de aceasta reprezint cea mai mare amenin are la adresa securit ii mondiale. Autorul raportului, Paul Rogers, profesor la Universitatea Bradford, detaliind consecin ele acestor crize, sus ine c deciziile viitoare luate la nivel mondial vor fi decisive n ceea ce prive te securitatea interna ional. El mai precizeaz c alegerea pe care o vom face acum, va determina n cateva luni dac lumea devine mai pa nic sau mai pu in pa nic pentru urmtorii zece ani. La 12 februarie 2009, n fa a Comisiei Senatului pentru Informa ii, Directorul Informa iilor Interna ionale, Dennis C. Blair, a prezentat, pentru prima oar, un document provenind din analiza tuturor celor 16 servicii de informa ii i securitate ale SUA. El s-a referit la cele mai importante amenin ri de securitate cu care se confrunt n prezent societatea american, men ionnd, n principal, urmtoarele: o Criza economic global i impactul su destabilizator asupra alia ilor i adversarilor, inclusiv n ceea ce prive te posibilitatea scderii capacit ilor alia ilor de a- i asigura aprarea i obliga iile de asisten umanitar; o Impactul intern i interna ional al schimbrilor climatice globale; o Accesul la resurse energetice n deplin securitate i asigurare a managementului aprovizionrii cu alimente i apa, mai ales n condi iile unei previziuni de cre tere a popula iei globului cu 1 miliard de locuitori pn in anul 2025;
235
Securitatea informatic i amenin rile la structura informatic a SUA, att din partea unor actori statali ct i nestatali. Referindu-se la criza economica globala, nceput n SUA i rspndit rapid n alte ri, Dennis Blair, noul director al National Intelligence a spus Congresului: Timpul este probabil cea mai mare amenin are pentru noi. Cu ct trece mai mult timp pn la nceperea redresrii, cu att devin mai periculoase eventualele efecte negative asupra intereselor strategice ale SUA. Relund problema, la 25 februarie, n fa a Comisiei pentru Informa ii din Camera Deputatilor, Blair a mai precizat: Analizele noastre arat c aceast criz economic duce la cre terea riscului de instabilitate a regimurilor politice, dac ea continu pentru o perioad de nc 1-2 ani, adaugnd c instabilitatea poate duce la pierderea echilibrului fragil pe care multe state n curs de dezvoltare l au n domeniile justi iei i ordinii interne de drept. A adar, onorat asisten , fr a imprima o not alarmist, apreciez c, mult timp de acum nainte, abordrile cu privire la securitate na ionala i mondial trebuie fcute numai n contextul crizei financiare globale i a recesiunilor economice generate de aceasta. Convingerea mi este dat si de afirma ia aceluia i stimat domn Dennis C. Blair, cuprins n raportul anual al Comunit ii de Informa ii, prezentat n fa a Congresului. Domnia sa a subliniat explicit c principala preocupare a Statelor Unite n materie de securitate nu mai este terorismul ci criza financiar mondial i implica iile sale geopolitice. Iat c aceast nou percep ie vine din SUA, chiar din ara lovit cel mai crunt de terorismul interna ional care, la acea dat, a schimbat radical, att politica sa extern i de securitate na ional, ct i conceptul strategic al NATO. ntr-un asemenea context, sunt de prere c, o construc ie ipotetic de detaliu a situa iei actuale i a evolu iei ei probabile ce poate caracteriza via a economic, financiar, politic i social a oricrei ri cuprins de criz, raportat i la condi iile interna ionale, scoate n eviden o serie de factori de provocare, risc i amenin are la adresa securit ii na ionale i mondiale, factori asocia i crizei financiare globale i recesiunilor economice. O asemenea construc ie este realizat de pe pozi ia analistului de intelligence, potrivit creia, aprecierea gradului de periculozitate al unei amenin ri ncepe de la valoarea maxim ce se diminueaz apoi, pe msura ob inerii de noi informa ii. Ace ti factori, repet, asocia i crizei, n opinia autorului ar putea fi: Accentuarea srciei, ca urmare a desfiin rii unui numr mare de locuri de munc, ce va duce la cre terea numrului de oameni care nu se pot alimenta n mod adecvat i la sporirea numrului de mbolnviri, mai ales n rile n curs de dezvoltare. Amploarea unor asemenea fenomene vor influen a negativ sistemele de securitate social, care nu vor mai face fa ; Fragmentarea politic intern n unele ri, ca urmare a inabilit ii i e ecului unor politici guvernamentale de estompare sau ie ire din criz. Aceasta ar putea duce la radicalizarea unor for e politice, ce ar afecta democra ia i ar deschide drumul spre autoritarism i dictatur; o
236
Extinderea srciei care, estimndu-se c va lovi zeci de milioane de oameni, ar putea determina apari ia unor miscri sociale extrem de radicale i violente, n fa a crora o parte a puterii politice ar putea fi tentat s mping puterea administrativ s recurg la for ; Reinvierea i extinderea na ionalismului extremist, xenofobiei i rasismului pe fondul instabilit ii sociale i politice interne i externe; Diminuarea drastic sau, n cel mai fericit caz, limitarea bugetelor destinate securit ii na ionale, alocate dintr-un buget de stat foarte mic, ca urmare a falimentrii unui numr mare de firme i a disponibilizrilor masive de angaja i. Aceasta situa ie se va rsfrnge negativ asupra programelor de nzestrare ale structurilor din sistemul securit ii na ionale i chiar asupra men inerii efectivelor acestora, n total dezacord cu planificarea resursei umane potrivit nevoilor de aprare, ordine public i siguran na ional; Dep irea pragului critic acceptat de regulile concuren ei loiale n lupta acerb pentru supravie uirea n pia a a firmelor, pe plan intern i extern, care ar stimula inocularea altor reguli dure, de boicot, antaj i chiar apari ia i proliferarea unor forme de rzboi informa ional, n cele mai nea teptate forme de manifestare, cu scopul ocult de a elimina din pia i a falimenta concuren ii; Discreditarea public concertat a structurilor specializate n domeniul securit ii na ionale i justi iei, de ctre o parte a media i a formatorilor de opinie, sub falsa nvinuire de favorizare social a personalului ce-l incadreaz. Se desconsider total principiul egalit ii de anse de care trebuie s beneficieze acest personal, n condi iile interdic iilor i frustrrilor impuse de practicarea profesiilor respective, fa de care societatea este obligat s acorde compensa ii corespunztoare; Scderea accentuat a ncrederii popula iei n aceste structuri, datorit discreditrii men ionate mai sus, precum i diminuarea sever a atrac iei tineretului valoros pentru aceste profesii; Extinderea restric iilor n domeniul cheltuielilor militare i asupra angajamentelor unor state privind sprijinul umanitar interna ional sau n cadrul alian elor politice i politico militare interna ionale. Diminuarea prezen ei i eventual retragerea complet a for elor multina ionale de men inere sau impunere a pcii n zone de conflict, de ajutor n reconstruc ia statal, nainte de ndeplinirea misiunilor pentru care s-au angajat, vor determina ie irea de sub control a acestor zone din punctul de vedere al securit ii, proliferndu-se, la o scar mai mare, violen a, crima organizat, criminalitatea politic, comer ul ilegal de arme i echipamente militare de toate tipurile, inclusiv nucleare; Reamorsarea i accelerarea unor alte conflicte latente de origine interetnica sau de natura revendicativ de teritorii, n condi iile instabilit ii regionale; Sporirea chiar pe termen scurt a riscurilor de ac iuni teroriste. Se creaz premise favorabile pentru producerea de atentate teroriste de mare
amploare. Ele pot fi comise cu substan e chimice, arme biologice i chiar nucleare; Cre terea vulnerabilit ii infrastructurilor ce fac obiectul securit ii energetice, precum i a ac iunilor de piraterie pe mrile i oceanele lumii; Reconsiderarea politicii externe ale unor ri i revenirea lor la pozi ia de state care finan eaz terorismul international; Cre terea riscului de izbucnire a unor rzboaie civile, ca urmare a posibilelor falimente statale pe plan mondial precum i de producere a unor conflicte ntre state. Constatm deja politici agresive de narmare a unor state, ca Iranul i Coreea de Nord, precum i tentative de repozi ionare a lor i a altora ca Rusia, China, Pakistanul, India, n ansamblul puterilor militare, ndeosebi nucleare; Ca rspuns, msurile de contracarare a lor, de i unele aduc prejudicii democra iei, drepturilor i libert ilor fundamentale ale omului, sunt amplificate i acceptate numai ca un compromis n folosul securit ii na ionale. Stimat auditoriu, aceste provocri, riscuri i amenin ri sunt ipotetice i ntr-o nota oarecum alarmant, dar ele sunt posibile. n primul rand, pentru c sunt specifice i asociate unei crize financiare globale i unor recesiuni economice ce au cuprins aproape ntreg mapamondul. Apoi, pentru c s-au declan at n cele mai dezvoltate ri economice i n forme foarte violente. Aceste crize sunt unanim apreciate ca fiind fr precedent i c au creat i vor crea un proces att de complex n ntreaga lume, cum nu a mai fost cunoscut de la cderea comunismului i pn acum. Evolu ia lor este imprevizibil, fiecare zi aducnd noi incertitudini care, ntr-o form sau alta, oblig serviciile de informa ii s identifice permanent noi riscuri i amenin ri. ntr-o formulare poate nu asemntoare ca form, dar cu siguran n con inut, acestea se regsesc n tabloul men ionat mai sus. Cderea cortinei de fier i groaznicul episod din 11 septembrie 2001 au impus transformri de substan n maniera de abordare a securit ii care au i consacrat sintagma de transformare intelligence. Dupa cum este bine tiut, aceasta cuprinde domenii cum ar fi: re-analizarea vechilor misiuni i introducerea altora noi, cooperarea ntre servicii, planificarea i culegerea informatiilor, analiza, diseminarea, pregtirea speciali tilor, utilizarea informa iilor, controlul parlamentar asupra serviciilor. Apreciez c i n actualul context de securitate, se impune un nou proces de transformare intelligence. M voi opri numai asupra analizei si cooperrii, apreciate de mine ca deosebit de importante pentru o nou arhitectur de securitate. Acest context impune serviciilor o manier local de analiz ct i o manier global multidisciplinar. Adaptat complexit ii lumii actuale care nu mai este o ciocnire dinamic de ideologii, religii sau etnii, ci este o lume a ciocnirilor de interese mbracate n costume diferite, transformarea n analiza de informa ii nseamn, n primul rand, identificarea intereselor principalilor actori. Aceasta nu o poate face decat analiza multisurs i multidisciplinar. De aceea, este necesar ca printre speciali ti s se gaseasc exper i n diferite domenii cum ar fi: finan e, macroeconomie, religie, sociologie, psihologie, microbiologie, s.a. Imposibilitatea acoperirii n intregime a nevoilor de
speciali ti schimb conceptual rela iile de lucru ntre anali tii individuali i grupurile de analiz ale serviciilor. tim c n procesul de outsoursing oarecum a proliferat i i-a dovedit eficien a exact n domeniul analizei. Aceasta a facut posibil privatizarea evalurii. Sunt firme care ofer azi expertiza n analizarea riscurilor globale. De asemenea s-au realizat i re ele de distribu ie a informa iilor deschise sau companii care permit accesul, contra cost, pe net, la analizele i evalurile lor. Dar nevoia de diversificare i mrire a numrului surselor la dispozi ie, n contextul actual, poate impinge serviciile guvernamentale n pozi ia de obiective punctiforme ale unor subtile opera iuni de rzboi informa ional. Nu m refer aici la firme prestigioase n domeniu, precum Stratfor si Janes ori BICES si CRONOS i altele la fel de credibile. Vreau doar s subliniez c exploatarea surselor deschise n multitudinea lor, n opinia mea nu mai ofer credibilitatea scontat. n plus, este i un fenomen facil datorit cantit ii mari de balast n informa ia analizat. Transformarea intelligence, n condi iile actuale ar recomanda o metod eficient de culegere de informa ii din surse deschise prin utilizarea unor centre na ionale din care toate serviciile de informa ii s- i poata extrage informa iile de care au nevoie. Oricum impunerea unor selec ii riguroase a informa iilor din surse deschise poate aduce n discu ie i o nou form de rela ie a serviciilor guvernamentale cu companiile private care s ofere credibilitate, loialitate i responsabilit i juridice. Simpla rela ie comercial n pia a de prestri servicii trebuie adus la una din formele ce se ncadreaz unui gen de parteneriat public privat, care s legifereze obliga ii, drepturi i condi ionri reciproce. A adar, putem spune c procesul de analiz multisurs i multidisciplinar reune te serviciile de intelligence strategic n ansamblul lor, de business intelligence, intelligence competitiv, de managementul cuno tin elor ntr-o organizatie s.a., guvernamentale si private contractate, ntr-o comunitate pe care o putem defini generic Comunitate Informativ de Securitate (CIS). Asemenea gen de analiz a crizei actuale este cerut att de specificitatea premizelor care genereaz riscurile i amenin rile asociate ei, ct i de necesitatea de a le raporta la contextul interna ional actual, creat de celelalte amenin ri men ionate de Dennis Blair, prezentate mai sus. Indiferent de apartenen a structurilor de intelligence, guvernamentale sau private, ele trebuie s- i prezinte o oferta loial, corect i credibil n scopul garantrii succesului planurilor de ie ire din criz, de stopare i diminuare a efectelor ei, la specificul fiecrei ri. Asadar, astzi, transformarea intelligence trebuie gandit i n domeniul cooperrii ntre serviciile de informa ii, mai mult dect au realizat transformrile anterioare. n primul rnd, am n vedere constituirea Comunit ii de Informa ii. Ea s-a creat, mai devreme sau mai tarziu, aproape n majoritatea rilor occidentale democrate i a marcat un pas important n institu ionalizarea unei func iuni necesare care a realizat cooperarea i a eliminat birocra ia i tradi ionala concuren subiectiv n toate verigile ntregului ciclu intel, n unele ri cu accent pe veriga de analiz. Cooperarea a dus la eliminarea sintagmei need to know (nevoia de a cunoa te)
n rela ia dintre servicii, care a fost nlocuita cu sintagma need to share (nevoia de a mprt i). Cu mult curaj, trebuie abordate i verigile de coordonare a ac iunilor i n plan operativ, cu mari beneficii n folosirea resurselor umane, a fondurilor financiare i n evitarea interferen elor ce pot aduce prejudicii ireparabile. n al doilea rand, am n vedere includerea companiilor private ce fac obiectul parteneriatului public privat, ntr-un cadru institu ionalizat prin lege, numit mai sus CIS. Criza actual reclam mai mult ca oricnd o abordare sistemic n binom a problemei securitate servicii de informa ii, n cadrul creia conceptului de securitate na ional i se alatur i conceptul de securitate a intereselor de grup, ale unei colectivit i restrnse i ale individului. Acest mod de abordare aduce n discu ie cunoa terea riscurilor, provocrilor i amenin rilor n activitatea cotidian, la adresa existen ei i intereselor individului, ca entitate social, precum i cele la adresa grupurilor de interese legale comune (n domeniul social, al afacerilor, financiar, al mediului, alimentar, sant ii, al transporturilor, .a.). Aceasta este motiva ia pentru care, n plus fa de ceea ce pot asigura serviciile guvernamentale, societatea civil i mediul de afaceri i-au creat propriile organisme neguvernamentale, funda ii, servicii de larg informare public, de consultan i de asigurare n domeniu care s realizeze securitatea de care au nevoie grupurile i individul. Ca urmare, din acest punct de vedere, asteptrile acestora nu sunt ndreptate numai ctre serviciile specializate ale statului. Asteptrile lor sunt atat de particularizate ncat, orict ar fi de dezvoltate i orict disponibilitate ar manifesta, ele nu ar fi capabile s satisfac nevoile de securitate respective, n sensul celor de mai sus. Aceste asteptri sunt ndreptate, cu prioritate ctre capitalul privat, cruia i ofer o mare oportunitate de afaceri. Preluarea calificat de ctre mediul privat a unor asemenea responsabilit i degreveaz bugetele serviciilor guvernamentale, de cele mai multe ori limitate. Pe de alt parte, ea este cerut i de necesitatea diminurii dependen ei destinului cet eanului de aceste servicii. n final, mai trebuie men ionat c implicarea mediului privat n domeniul securit ii solicit nalt responsabilitate, competen profesional, etic i moral, iar eficien a activit ii companiilor de profil trebuie s se probeze pe pia a liber, n condi ii de concuren loial. Bibliografie selectiv Deborah Avant, The Market for Force: The Consequence of Privatizing Security, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2005, p. 9, amintit n Hans Born, Marina Caparini and Eden Cole, Regulating Private Security in Europe: Status and Prospects, Policy Paper No.20, Geneva Centrul pentru Controlul Democratic al For elor Armate (DCAF), p.1. Eugene Smith, The New Condottieri and US Policy: The Privatization of Conflict and Its Implications, in Parameters, 2003, p. 116. Fred Schreier and Marina Caparini, Privatising Security: Law, Practice and Governance of Private Military and Security Companies, Occasional Paper No.
240
6, Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), 2005, p. 86-87. Han L. S., Evoluii i reconfigurri predictibile ale mediului de securitateprivatizarea securitii, Psihologia i Mass-media nr.3, Editura Academiei Naionale de Informaii, 2008. http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefing_papers/military_acti on_against_iran_impact_and_effects LaTimes la:http://articles.latimes.com/2009/feb/13/nation/na-security-threat13 Paul Rogers, 2010 la: Peter Singer, Humanitarian Principles, Private Military Agents: Some Implications of the Privatised Military Industry for the Humanitarian Community, n Victoria Wheeler and Adele Harmer (eds.), Resetting the Rules of Engagement: Trends and Issues in Military-Humanitarian Relations, Humanitarian Policy Group Report 22, Overseas Development Institute, London, 2006, p.68. Popa I. et al., Competitive Advantage in The Public Sector, Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Volume 6, 2011, P: 60-66. Ulriche Schneckener, Armed Non-State Actors and the Monopoly of Force, in Alyson Bailes, Ulriche Schneckener and Herbert Wulf, n.2, p.11.
241
Marketingul n jurnalismul sportiv actual

Asist. univ. Drd. Cristian GHENA Universitatea Artifex Bucureti Abstract Nowadays we witness a huge increase in public interest towards sport and information about sport. Growing popularity of sport has attracted businessmen to this area that has become a good possibility for investments. Sport and sports journalism are representing not just social activities now, but turn out to be a part of economic sphere, therefore should act according to economic principles, particularly those of marketing. Sports journalism should behave just like any other service or product that has to be sold in conditions of the best possible visibility. Key words: marketing, sportive journalism, strategy, public, sport JEL Classification: M31, M37
Perioada actual a condus la o cretere spectaculoas a interesului publicului pentru informaia de natur sportiv. La acest aspect au contribuit att creterea performanelor sportive, dar i mrirea substanial a premiilor puse n joc. O alt tendin care a condus ctre accesul sporit al publicului consumator ctre sport i ctre informaia sportiv a fost transformarea sportului de la nivelul ideatic, aa cum era privit n ara noastr n perioada dinainte de 1989, n problematic de afaceri. De altfel, aceast idee nu trebuie neleas n niciun fel ca avnd un sens peiorativ, deoarece reprezint doar o stare de normalitate, n care sportul este privit ca un mijloc nu doar de recreere i de ridicare a valorilor morale i sociale, ci i ca un instrument de marketing, cu ajutorul cruia s se genereze venituri. Poate c i ipoteza expus mai sus a condus la ceea ce am susinut n primele rnduri ale acestui articol. Sportul devenind un domeniu de succes a atras privirile oamenilor de afaceri, care s-au implicat n calitate de sponsori. O parte a profiturilor realizate au fost apoi reinvestite n sport, astfel c antrenorii, delegaii, arbitri, oficialii, sportivii i celelalte categorii de personal implicate au devenit mai interesai. Conceptul respectiv a condus ctre profesionalismul total al sportului, n zilele noastre fiind foarte rare cazurile de amatori care reuesc s ating mari performane, n condiiile n care exigenele au crescut i continu s creasc de la zi la zi. Jurnalismul sportiv nu putea s rmn n urma acestei dezvoltri intensive a fenomenului sportiv, astfel c, mai ales dup apariia n peisaj a ziarelor online, a suferit veritabile transformri structurale. Obinuitele redacii relativ greoaie, inflexibile, care realizau un produs mai puin vandabil azi, au fost nlocuite de
lucrul la foc automat, n care informaiile despre rezultate i competiii apar aproape instantaneu cu ncheierea evenimentului sportiv. Aa cum dezvoltarea sportului a avut nevoie de alipirea tehnicilor i strategiilor de marketing, jurnalismul sportiv, pentru a fi performant n mediul concurenial, are nevoie de marketing, de publicitate, de comunicare i de relaii publice. Concurena a transformat jurnalismul sportiv ntr-o mixtur format pe de o parte din latura strict profesional, la care se altur o alta care se refer la tacticile care pun n valoare imaginea instituiei de pres i care, s recunoatem, ncearc s fac produsul ct mai vandabil. Deci, indiferent c ne referim la un post de televiziune, radio, agenie de pres, ziar cotidian, ori sptmnal, sau varianta electronic a celor enumerate, site de specialitate, site de club sau orice alt form de jurnalism sportiv, acesta se comport ca un produs lansat pe pia, care se supune regulilor i exigenelor concureniale. Astfel, subiectul s-a glisat pe gustul publicului, suferind n unele situaii abateri grave de la linia i conduita tradiional a unor instituii de pres. Acest lucru s-a ntmplat numai din dorina patronatului de a obine profit ct mai repede i cu investiii ct mai mici, n detrimentul unei creteri naturale, bazate pe calitate i pe respectarea principiului fundamental al presei, de a rmne formator de opinie i de a educa publicul consumator. Ne place pentru c asistm la acest lucru? Desigur c nu, foarte multe voci semnalnd anormalitile de tratament ale presei fa de public. Teritoriul de cercetare pentru marketingul n jurnalism sportiv este departe de a fi explorat aa cum se cuvine. Nu putem afirma c este virgin deoarece unele ncercri n acest segment exist. Propunerea pe care autorul acestui articol i permite s o avanseze este ca, la nivelul cercetrilor teoretice legate de strategiile de marketing care se pot implica n jurnalismul sportiv, s se respecte pe ct posibil i s se adapteze principiile tradiionale ale abordrii de marketing. Astfel, jurnalismul sportiv trebuie s se comporte ntocmai ca oricare alt serviciu sau produs care dorete s se vnd ct mai bine i s aib o vizibilitate ct mai bun. Vom avea nevoie, aadar, de studii la nivelul fazei de produs, de pre, de plasament i de publicitate. E vorba de principiul fundamental al marketingului, de cei 4P, care trebuie adui lng jurnalismul sportiv. Odat ce potenialul enorm pe care l are acum jurnalismul sportiv va fi fructificat cu ajutorul conceptelor de marketing, expuse mai sus, se va intra ntr-o nou etap de elaborare i de abordare a jurnalismului sportiv. Concluzia acestui prim articol ar fi c marketingul i jurnalismul sportiv trebuie s devin, prin cercetare aplicat, un binom indestructibil, care s in cont de cerinele marketingului, dar i de rolurile i funciile jurnalismului sportiv, aa cum sunt ele enunate de specialitii n domeniu.
Bibliografie selectiv Andrews, Phil Jurnalismul sportiv, Editura Polirom, Iai, 2006 Anghel L, Florescu C, Zaharia R Aplicaii n marketing, Editura Expert, Bucureti, 1999 Balaure Virgil (coordonator) Marketing, Editura Uranus, Bucureti 2003 Coman Mihai Introducere n sistemul mass-media, Editura Poliron, Iai, 2007 Coman Mihai Manual de jurnalism, Editura Polirom, Iai, 2005 Paraschiv Ciprian Construirea unui brand n sport, Editura Sedcom Libris, Iai, 2010
244
Modele de construcie a portofoliilor de instrumente financiare

Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti/ Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract The construction of any portfolio has as a first step identifying financial instruments which are to be traded, as well as the moment opportune for entering the stock market (the optimal timing of trading). This is the stage in which it's made the market analysis with the aim of collecting necessary information on the process of making the investment decision Key words: portfolio of financial instruments, fundamental analysis, financial indicators, market exchange rates JEL Classification: G11, G23
Activitatea investiional trebuie s fie bazat pe o evaluare profund att a performanelor individuale ale instrumentelor ce urmeaz a fi achiziionate, precum i a evoluiei de ansamblu a pieei de capital pe care urmeaz a fi efectuat investiia. Evaluarea implic deinerea de baze de date i conexiuni ntre diversele surse de infornaii existente pe pia pentru a monitoriza ctigurile i pierderile, avnd n vedere valorile nregistrate de principalii indicatori de eficien, precum i statisticile instrumentelor ori a pieelor. Aceast evaluare poate fi efectuat prin intermediul a dou categorii de analiz operaional a valorilor mobiliare i anume: analiza tehnic i analiza fundamental a instrumentelor financiare.1 Analiza tehnic (chartist) a instrumentelor financiare2 presupune studierea evoluiei istorice a instrumentelor financiare vizate de ctre investitor i previzionarea pe baza informaiilor identificate a evoluiei ulterioare a acestora. Analiza fundamental a instrumentelor financiare presupune studierea situaiei financiare reale a emitenilor de instrumente financiare, precum i a conjuncturii economice generale, n vederea estimrii cursului i a riscului fiecrui instrument n parte. n mod concret, analiza fundamental presupune studiul principalilor indicatori economico financiari ai firmei emitente de instrumente financiare. Trebuie menionat faptul c, dei aceti indicatori au fost concepui
Anghel, M.G. Aspecte teoretice privind portofoliile de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul Internaional cu tema Criza economic impact pentru Romnia, Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureti, 2008 2 Duma, F. Managementul portofoliului de valori mobiliare, Analele Universitii din Oradea, 2007
245
pentru a servi la analiza economico financiar a entitilor comerciale, ei pot fi adaptai cu succes n studiul portofoliilor de instrumente financiare. n vederea identificrii instrumentelor financiare ce urmeaz a fi tranzacionate am utilizat analiza fundamental bazat pe rata de lichiditate, rata de solvabilitate, rata de rentabilitate i rata de pia. n acest sens, am acordat calificative dup urmtoarele criterii: FB B S I 3 2 1 0 De asemenea, am stabilit urmtoarele ponderi: Indicator Pondere Lichiditate 40% Solvabilitate 30% Rentabilitate 10% Ratele de pia 20% Stabilirea acestor ponderi s-a bazat pe urmtoarele argumentaii logice: lichiditatea este un indicator de baz n analiza unei societi, drept urmare am acordat o pondere de 40%; dac societatea este lichid, n general, aceasta este i solvabil, motiv pentru care ponderea alocat este de 30%; n situaia n care o societate este solvabil i lichid, cu certitudine aceasta desfoar o activitate rentabil din acest considerent am alocat o pondere mai redus de 10%. Un element deosebit este reprezentat de valoarea aciunilor de pe pia ntruct ctigul se realizeaz n urma variaiei acestora ponderea acordat este de 20%. Indicatorii delichiditateanalizeaz capacitatea societii de a-i onora obligaiile de plat pe termen scurt (lichiditatea pe termen scurt). Rata lichiditii curente (RLc) msoar abilitatea companiei de a plti datoriile pe termen scurt utiliznd activele pe termen scurt din bilan. Valoarea recomandat a acestui indicator este cuprins n intervalul 2-2,5, considerndu-se c valoarea optim este aproximativ de 23. Totui, aceasta poate nregistra diverse variaii n funcie de domeniul de activitate. Un grad linititor al indicatorului este cuprins ntre 1,5 2,0, nivelul mai mic de 1,0 semnific dificultatea societii de a face fa obligaiilor scadente pe termen scurt, iar valoarea subunitar nseamn c entitatea este n situaia de a se mprumuta sau de vinde o parte din activele sale imobilizate pentru a-i plti datoriile i de a evita, astfel, falimentul. Rata lichiditii imediate (RLi) exprim msura n care entitatea poate s achite datoriile pe termen scurt facnd apel la activele din bilan care prezint gradul cel mai nalt de lichiditate. Cea mai buna valoare pentru acest indicator este n general 1, cu precizarea c i n acest caz pot exista sectoare n care lichiditatea
3
Vintil G.(2010)Gestiunea financiar a ntreprinderii, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic, Bucureti
246
imediat poate fi mai mic dect 1 (stocurile au o pondere ridicat n activele circulante totale). O valoare satisfctoare a lichiditii imediate este considerat 0,8. Rata lichiditii la vedere (RLv) are valoarea recomandat de 0,2. Activele de trezorerie cuprind disponibilitile din casa i contul curent, precum i investiiile financiare pe termen scurt. Ratele de solvabilitate Rata solvabilitii generale (RSg) arat incapacitatea agentului economic analizat de a plti datoriile. Dac rata solvabilitii generale nregistreaz o valoare mai mic dect 1, atunci acesta este insolvabil. Rata autonomiei financiare(Raf) prezint arat ponderea resurselor proprii n cadrul resurselor financiare atrase pe termen lung de ctre societate. Valoarea nregistrat de aceast rat trebuie s fie superioar sau cel puin egal cu 50%.
Rata autonomiei globale arat ponderea surselor proprii n totalitatea mijloacelor aflate la dispoziia agentului economic. Optim este ca valoarea nregistrat s fie ct mai apropiat de 100%, situaie ce indic autonomie financiar maxim. Totui, dac acest indicator este de minim 33% din totalul surselor de finaare, se consider o situaie satisfcatoare. Rata datoriilor totale desemneaz ponderea surselor de finanate atrase n totalul pasivelor societii (activ = pasiv).n activitatea practic, pentru ca societatea s fie apreciat ca fiind sigur, se recomand ca valoarea ratei datoriilor s fie situat sub pragul de 50%. Rentabilitateasemnific trstura unei societi comerciale de a realiza un venit mai mare dect cheltuielile. Rata rentabilitii economice (Return on Assets)arat eficiena capacitii manageriale de a folosi resursele totale ale societii (financiare i reale) pentru a genera profit.
247
Rata rentabilitii financiare(Return on Equity) msoar rezultatele utilizrii surselor proprii i arat pentru acionari efectul angajrii lor n activitatea societii. Valoarea nregistrat de acest indicator trebuie s fie mai mare dect 5%.
Ratele de pia PER (price to earning ratio) este coeficientul de capitalizare bursier i arat de cte ori investitorii sunt dispui s plteasc profitul net pe aciune4. O valoare mic nregistrat de PER semnific faptul c aciunea este ieftin i, drept urmare, este indicat achiziionarea acesteia. n caz contrar, cnd PER are o valoare destul de mare, aciunea este scump i poate fi, astfel, supraevaluat, posesia ei nemaifiind motivat.
EPS (ctigul pe aciune) arat abilitatea emitentului de a realiza profit. Cu ct valorile nregistrate de EPS sunt mai mari, cu att mai mult potenialul de cretere a societii este mai mare. n situaia invers, cnd valorile sunt mai mici, riscul la care se supune societatea este mai mare.
PB/V (price per book value) este un indicator carene aratdac aciunile sunt supraevaluate sau subevaluate. Aciunile se consider c sunt supraevaluate n situaia n care au un pre pe valoare contabil mare i un catig al acionarilor mic i subevaluate atunci cnd au un pre pe valoare contabil mic i un catig al acionarilor mare. Book value reprezint valoarea capitalurilor proprii (active - datorii) O valoare subunitar nregistrat de indicatorul PB/V semnific un semn pentru achiziionare. Pornind de la modalitatea de interpretare a valorilor indicatorilor analizai i a calificativelor acordate acestora, am creat urmatorul Tabel centralizator: Indicator Interval Lichiditate Rentabilitate [2 2,5] FB 3 Rata >5% FB 3 Lichiditatea [1,5 2) B 2 rentabilitii [3% 5%] B 2 curent [1 1,5) S 1 economice [1% 3%) S 1 (%) <1 sau >2,5 I 0 <1% I 0 Lichiditatea [0,8 1,1] FB 3 Rata >5% FB 3 imediat [0,5 0,8) B 2 rentabilitii [3% 5%] B 2 financiare (%) [0,2 0,5) S 1 [1% 3%) S 1
4
Anghelache, G. (2009) Piaa de capital n context european, Editura Economic, Bucureti
248
Indicator Lichiditate
Interval Rentabilitate <0,2 sau >1,1 [0,2 0,3] [0,1 0,2) I FB B S I 0 3 2 1 0 <1% >40% [20% 40%] [0% 20%) <0% I FB B S I 0 3 2 1 0
Lichiditatea la vedere
[0,05 0,1) <0,05 sau>0,3
Rata de cretere a profiturilor (%) Ratele de pia PER
Solvabilitate Rata solvabilitii generale >3 (2 3] [1 2) FB B S 3 2 1
<1 I 0 I 0 [75% FB 3 FB 3 100%] [50% B 2 B 2 Rata autonomiei 75%) P/BV financiare (%) [25% S 1 S 1 50%) <25% I 0 I 0 [75% Ct mai FB 3 FB 3 100%] mare [50% Rata autonomiei B 2 B 2 75%) EPS globale (%) [33% S 1 S 1 50%) <33% I 0 I 0 <25% FB 3 Rata datoriilor [25% totale (%) B 2 50%) [50% S 1 75%) [75% I 0 100%] La construirea unui portofoliu de instrumente financiare trebuie s se ia n considerare o gama ct mai variat astfel nct riscul asumat s fie ct mai mic.
[0 5%] (5 10%] (10 15%] >15% <1
FB B S
3 2 1
Numrul instrumentelor financiare ce ar putea face parte din portofoliu depinde de investitor, dar specialitii n domeniu afirm c acesta trebuie s fie minim 7 pentru a putea fi compensat o pierdere care s-ar putea nregistra n cazul n care unul sau mai multe dintre acesta sufer o cdere neateptat. n acelai timp, este recomandabil diversificarea instrumentelor pe sectoare de activitate. n activitatea de construcie i gestionare a portofoliului se recomand s se selectezeaciuni din categoria celor subevaluate, s se aleag cel mai bun moment de intrare pe pia i, pentru a vinde i a obine profit, s se atepte momentul n care preul ajunge n concordan cu rezultatele financiare, inndu-se cont de fluctuaiile pieei pentru a nu se pierde oportunitile oferite de aceasta. Bibliografie selectiv Anghel Mdlina Gabriela Aspecte teoretice privind portofoliile de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul Internaional cu tema Criza economic impact pentru Romnia, Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureti, 2008; Anghelache Gabriela Victoria (2009) Piaa de capital n context european, Editura Economic, Bucureti; Duma Florin(2007) Managementul portofoliului de valori mobiliare, Analele Universitii din Oradea; Vintil Georgeta (2010)Gestiunea financiar a ntreprinderii, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic, Bucureti.
250
Metode de ierarhizare utilizate n analiza statistic a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii n profil regional
Lect.univ.dr. Florin Paul Costel LILEA Universitatea Artifex- Bucuresti florin.lilea@gmail.com Conf.univ.dr. Elena BUGUDUI Universitatea Artifex- Bucuresti Lect.univ.dr. Ctlin DEATCU Universitatea Artifex- Bucuresti Abstract Given the fact that territorial units are characterized by a large number of statistical variables which have a different economic content, it considers that when we determine the place ocuppied by every unit we must count many statistical variables that are interrelated to each other. In fact, in the treatises, most studies on hierarchy theme are realised by multifactoral criteria. The authors are proposing to present, in this study, two possible models for ranking of SMEs in Romania the year 2011. Key words: regional hierarchy, SME, turnover, personnel, statistical analysis JEL classification: C40, R12, Y10
Adaptnd la IMM se poate face o ierarhizare a acestora dup o serie de variabile statistice aflate n relaie de interdependen cum ar fi: populaia ocupat, volumul investiiilor, mrimea cifrei de afaceri. Din aceast exemplificare rezult c ierarhizarea se poate efectua pe baza unor variabile de natur diferit i exprimate n uniti de msur diferite. De menionat faptul c ierarhizarea trebuie s porneasc de la identificarea i selectarea acelor variabile factoriale care asigur cea mai bun caracterizare a regiunilor de dezvoltare. Pentru ierarhizarea unitilor teritoriale, n literatura de specialitate, sunt prezentate o serie de metode cum ar fi: metoda rangurilor, metoda abaterilor standardizate, metoda decalajelor (diferenelor), metoda raportului de distan fa de nivelul mediu al unei caracteristici, metoda gradelor de utilitate etc. Fiecare metoda enunat prezint avantaje i dezavantaje. n studiile concrete, n funcie de scopul cercetrii i de natura datelor disponibile se poate folosi o singur metod sau o combinaie de mai multe metode.
innd seama de posibilitile i limitele de cunoatere ale metodelor de ierarhizare, n acest studiu am optat pentru dou metode: metoda rangurilor i metoda distanelor relative, considernd c sunt cele mai concludente n cazul variaiei regionale a IMM. Concret, am efectuat mai nti o ierarhizare a regiunilor de dezvoltare utiliznd metoda rangurilor. Aplicarea acestei metode se justific prin existena unui numr mic de uniti (opt regiuni de dezvoltare) i prin luarea n considerare a unui numr mic de variabile. n plus, metoda rangurilor are avantajul c este uoar i rapid, iar rezultatele ei pot fi utilizate n analize de corelaie prin intermediul metodelor neparametrice (coeficientul de corelaie a rangurilor). 1. Ierarhizarea regional a IMM utiliznd metoda rangurilor In scopul realizarii obiectivului propus, am ierarhizat regiunile n funcie de numrul total al IMM i pe rnd pe fiecare activitate i pe fiecare clas de mrime, acordarea rangurilor s-a fcut de la mare la mic in ambele situatii. n aceeai ordine de idei, am considerat c este suficient ca ierarhizarea IMM pe regiuni s se fac n funcie de dou caracteristici eseniale: una potenial (populaia ocupat) i una de rezultate (cifra de afaceri). Pentru comparaia locului regiunilor am folosit rezultatele ierarhizrii n care componentele se refer la activiti (vezi tabelul 1) i ale ierarhizrii n care componentele se refer la clasa de mrime a ntreprinderii (vezi tabelul 2). Tabelul 1. Ierarhizarea IMM pe activit i n funcie de rangul mediu calculat pentru variabilele personal i cifra de afaceri n anul 2011
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic al Romniei 2012, Tabelele 15.19, 15.20 15.22 Tabelul 2. Ierarhizarea IMM pe clase de mrime n funcie de rangul mediu calculat pentru variabilele populaia ocupat i cifra de afaceri n anul 2011
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic 2012, Tabelele 15.19, 15.20

252
i 15.22
Din datele tabelului 1 se constat c fa de ierarhizarea de baz n funcie de numrul total al IMM pe regiuni, rangul mediu calculat pe baza celor dou variabile pe cele patru activitati evideniaz c locul regiunilor, cu excepia a dou cazuri, rmne neschimbat. Schimbnd variabila de grupare (activitatea) cu o alta (clasa de mrime) dar folosind acelai criteriu de baz, rezultatele privind locul fiecrei regiuni sunt asemntoare. Datele tabelului 2 evideniaz c i n acest caz locul regiunilor este doar uor schimbat. Regiunile care i-au pstrat acelai loc sunt: Bucureti-Ilfov (locul 1), Nord-Vest (locul 2), Centru (locul 3), Nord-Est (locul 6), Vest (locul 7) i Sud-Vest Oltenia (locul 8). Regiunea Sud-Est se situeaz pe locul 5, n funcie de rangul mediu calculat pe activitati i pe locul 4 dac avem n vedere rangul mediu calculat pe clase de mrime. Aceast regiune i schimb locul cu regiunea Sud-Muntenia care se afl pe locul 4 cnd ierarhizarea s-a fcut pe activiti i pe locul 5 n funcie de clasa de mrime. n ambele situaii, aa cum se poate urmri n ultima coloan a celor dou tabele menionate anterior, ierarhizarea prin metoda rangurilor conduce la rezultate similare. Pe primul loc se situeaz regiunea Bucureti-Ilfov, urmat de regiunea Nord-Vest care cuprinde o parte din Transilvania, Criana i Maramure, pe locul 3 aflndu-se regiunea Centru care coincide cu regiunea istoric Transilvania1. De fapt, cele trei regiuni reprezint regiunile cele mai dezvoltate din punct de vedere economic ale Romniei. Pe ultimul loc se plaseaz regiunea Sud-Vest Oltenia, regiune cu cea mai slab dezvoltare economic. n concluzie, se poate aprecia c ierarhizarea regiunilor de dezvoltare din Romnia, pe baza metodei rangurilor a condus la o ierarhizare conform cu realitatea. Dei metoda rangurilor posed unele avantaje certe aa cum s-a mai artat ea nu ia n considerare i mrimea decalajelor absolute sau relative care pot aprea n ierarhizarea diverselor uniti statistice. De aceea, n continuare, mi-am propus s realctuiesc ierarhia regiunilor aplicnd metoda distanei relative fa de valoarea maxim a indicatorului n regiune. 2. Utilizarea metodei distanelor relative la ierarhizarea regional a IMM n scopul aplicrii acestei metode, pentru fiecare variabil inclus n analiz (n cazul de fa, populaia ocupat i cifra de afaceri) am identificat regiunea care prezint valoarea maxim. Fa de aceast baz (egal cu 1) am determinat distana relativ a fiecrei regiuni calculnd mrimile relative de coordonare corespunztoare. Din mrimile specifice fiecrei regiuni am calculat
Anghelache, C., Anghelache G.V., Cruceru D., Manole A., Bugudui, E., Lilea, F.PC., - Repere semnificative ale evolu iei serviciilor, comer ului i ale altor sectoare n ultimul deceniu n Suplimentul Revistei Romne de Statistic nr. 3/2012, pg. 120-127
1
253
cte o medie geometric simpl x gi . Se apreciaz c regiunea cu cea mai mare medie geometric este cea mai avantajat i obine rangul 12. n ordinea descresctoare a mediei se atribuie ranguri celorlalte regiuni (vezi tabelele 3 i 4). Datele prezentate n ultima coloan a tabelului 3, atest c i aceast metoda a condus la o ierarhizare conform cu realitatea. ntr-adevr se observ c rezultatele sunt similare, adic (n funcie de criteriile personal i cifra de afaceri pe regiuni) pe primele trei locuri se situeaz n ordine regiunile: Bucureti-Ilfov, Nord-Vest i Centru, iar pe ultimul loc se plaseaz regiunea Sud-Vest Oltenia. n mod analog am efectut n tabelul 4 o ierarhizare a regiunilor de dezvoltare pe clase de mrime utiliznd aceleai variabile statistice, cifra de afaceri i numrul personalului ocupat. Tabelul 3. Ierarhizarea regional a IMM pe activit i folosind metoda distanelor relative n anul 2011
( )
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic al Romniei 2012, Tabelele 15.20
i 15.22
Tabelul 4. Ierarhizarea regional a IMM , pe clase de mrime folosind metoda distanelor relative
Sursa: Prelucrat dup Anuarul Statistic al Romniei 2012, Tabelele 15.20 15.22
Concluzia la care am ajuns este aceea c rezultatele obinute prin aplicarea celor dou metode (metoda rangurilor i metoda distanelor relative) sunt identice, ceea ce ne permite s apreciem c alegerea celor dou metode utilizate la
Baltac, A.G.,- Theories on the Use of Inflation in Economic Analysis n Suplimentul Revistei Romne de Statistic nr. 34/2012, pg. 111-116
254
ierarhizarea regiunilor se justific, deoarece rezultatele obinute sunt n concordan cu realitatea. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C.- Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2008; Anghelache, C., - Romnia 2012 Starea economic n criz perpetu, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 2012; Constantin, D.L., Elemente fundamentale de economie regional, Editura ASE, 2004; Jaba, E., Metode statistice aplicate n studiul disparitilor regionale, Editura Sedcom Libris, Iai, 2002; Lilea, F.P.C.-Analiza statistic a repartiiei regionale a ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii n Romnia, Editura Ideea European, Bucureti, 2010; *** Anuarul statistic al Romniei, INS, Bucureti, 2012.
255
Factorii care influenteaza investitiile

Lector univ. dr. Drago Gabriel MECU Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract This paper offers a brief insight on the most important factors that influence the size and evolution of investments. The author reviews the risk, the ratio between offer and demand, the public responsibility, the technological characteristic. Key words: investment, ratio, period, top technologies, consumption JEL Classification: G11, G14
Factorii cei mai importanti care influenteaza investitiile sunt: asumarea riscului de catre intreprinzator; cererea de investitii si rata dobanzii; starea generala a economiei nationale; raspunderea statului pentru investitiile sectorului public; eficienta economica a investitiilor, care influenteaza in mod hotarator imboldul de a investi; conjuctura economiei mondiale. Eficienta economica a investitiilor, in general, exprima raportul dintre rezultatele economice utile obtinute pe multiple planuri de pe urma acestora si efortul de investitii; rezultatele ce se obtin intr-o anumita perioada la fiecare bun investit.Rezultatele ce se obtin ca urmare a investitiilor sunt foarte variate.Ele pot fi de natura economica, sociala si politica. De aceea, trebuie analizate in toata coplexitatea lor.Eficienta economica a investitiilor este conditionat si de calitatea activitatii de realizare a fiecarei investitii in parte.Din acest punct de vedere se disting cai de crestere a eficientei investitiilor in perioada de pregatire, executie si atingerea parametrilor proiectati.Este foarte important ca investitiile sa fie indreptate spre acele tehnologii care ofera posibilitatea reducerii consumului material si energetic pe unitatea de produs. Investitiile in ramurile de varf trebuie judecate si dupa efectele pe care le produc in ramurile consumatoare si asupra competivitatii produselor acestora. Analiza eficientei investitiilor trebuie sa se tina seama si de impactul ecologic, de limitare a efectelor negative ale actvitatii economice asupra mediului inconjurator. Cele mai importante cai de crestere a eficientei investitiilor sunt: realizarea unei structuri rationale a investitiilor; stabilirea marimii optime a capacitatii de productie; reducerea perioadelor de realizare a obiectivelor de investitie;
cresterea ponderii echipamentelor de productie la nivelul tehnicii investitiilor; reducerea perioadei de realizare a aparametrilor proiectati.
Eficienta economica a investitiilor poate fi apreciata in mai multe feluri, utilizand diferiti indicatori cum ar fi: 1) randamentul intern a investitiei sau rata de actualizare, care se determina pe baza relatiei: P = Fi/(1+e) + V/(1+e)2 + ..+ V/(1+e)n , unde P = pretul de achizitie al capitalului; Vi = inacasari viitoare corespunzatoare fiecarui an; e = eficienta marginala a capitalului; n = durata de utilizare a capitalului, in ani. Acest indicator permite egalarea valorilor actuale ale cheltuielilor cu investitiile, cu castigurile nete cumulate asteptate. Indicatorul este definit ca acea rata a dobanzii la care valoarea prezenta actualizata a veniturilor obtinute din investie este egala cu valoarea prezenta a investitiei.J.M.Keynes defineste eficienta marginala a capitalului (rata de actualizare), ca ,, fiind egala cu acea rata a scontului care ar face ca valoarea actuala a seriei de anuitati alcatuita din veniturile scontate de pe urma bunului capital de-a lungul duratei sale de functionare, sa fie tocmai egala cu pretul sau de oferta.Aceasta ne da eficientele marginale ale diferitelor tipuri de bunuri capitale. Cea mai mare dintre aceste eficiente marginale poate fi considerate ca eficienta marginala a capitalului in general ; 2) rata de rentabilitate a investitiei (R), care se determina prin raportarea profitului actualizat (castigurile actualizate minus costurile actualizate) Pra si costurile actualizate (Cn), dupa relatia: R = Pra/Ca. La nivelul economiei nationale, indicatorul cel mai edificator se obtin prin raportarea sporului de venit national la volumul investitiilor. Indicatorul, rata rentabilitatii, permite alegerea variantei optime intre diferite proiecte de investitii. Deoarece suma necesara investitiei poate fi plasata cu dobanda compusa fata de rata dobanzii pe piata, exista o dorinta puternica de a investi cu conditia ca rata rentabilitatii sa fie mai mare decat rata dobanzii1;
J.M.Keynes, care considera ca inclinatia spre investitii este determinate de eficienta marginala a investitiilor si de rata dobanzii, explica in esenta, in felul urmator influenta acestora asupra volumului investitiilor: atunci cand eficienta marginala a capitalului este mai mare decat rata dobanzii, investitiile vor avea o tendinta de crestere. Pe masura ce investitiile vor creste, va creste pe de o parte, abundenta de capital,dar pe de alta parte, vor creste preturile la materialele necesare pentru investitii, ceea ce va reduce volumul investitiilor, pana cand capitalul real va deveni destul de ,,rar pentru ca nivelul eficientei marginale a capitalului sa atinga din nou nivelul dobanzii.Fluctuatiile ciclice ale eficientei marginale a capitalului in raport cu rata dobanzii, atrag dupa sine fluctuatiile ciclice ale investitiilor.
257
2) perioada de rambursare a investitiei ( termenul de recuperare a investitiei (T), care exprima perioada la sfarsitul careia antreprenorul a rambursat costul initial al investitiei din profitul obtinut. Indicatorul (T) se determina raportand volumul investitiilor (/) la profitul annual (PrA), dupa relatia: T = I/PrA In urma calculului se va retine varianta a carei perioada de rambursare este mai scazuta.
Bibliografie selectiv Puffer, S.M. (1996) Management Across Cultures: Insights from Fiction and Practice, Blackwell Publishers
258
Aspecte privind managementul portofoliilor metode i modele utilizate

Prof. univ. dr. Radu Titus MARINESCU Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Lector univ. drd. Mdlina - Gabriela ANGHEL Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti/ Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Abstract The Management of financial instruments portfolios is a complex activity that is based on a series of scientific models through which it is possible to assess the financial performance of securities markets, but also the risks the investors expose themselves. Although it is recommended that portfolio management must be carried out by brokers or investment advisers, even those who are not specialists in the domain can manage their own portfolios with positive results if they follow and apply a set of principles and techniques. Key words: active management, passive management, profitability, risk, classical management models. JEL Classification: G11, G24
1. Aspecte teoretice Odat identificate i achiziionate instrumentele financiare ce corespund cerinelor investitorilor se face simit nevoia de a administra permanent portofoliul de instrumente financiare format. De-a lungul timpului, managementul portofoliilor de instrumente financiare a constituit o tem de interes pentru economiti, acetia acordnd o importan deosebit att elementelor teoretice, ct i celor practice referitoare la evaluarea valorilor mobiliare. Managementul portofoliului de instrumente financiare constituie o activitate important ntruct factorii care conduc la performanele cele mai bune pentru investiia respectiv sunt structura potrivit i buna administare a portofoliului. Relaia existent ntre rentabilitate i risc, pe de o parte i diversificarea portofoliului, pe de alt parte reprezint dou principii fundamentale care permit investitorilor s construiasc un portofoliu n conformitate cu obiectivele de rentabilitate i de risc pe care i le stabilesc. Decizia oricrui investitor de investire a capitalului posedat n instrumente financiare trebuie s in cont de strategia investiional adoptat, modalitatea de
identificare i selecie a instrumentelor financiare, numrul de instrumente selectate, realizarea combinaei optime n portofoliul construit i, mai ales, gestionarea acestuia n timp n raport cu nivelul de aversiune a investitorului fa de risc i gradul de rentabilitate ateptat de acesta. n momentul n care un investitor ia decizia de a construi un portofoliu are ca obiectiv obinerea unei valori capitalizate a beneficiilor viitoare ct mai mare (maximizarea acesteia). Viitorul nu poate fi cunoscut, el poate fi doar anticipat. n aceste condiii, intervine riscul n funcie de variaz rata capitalizrii beneficiului. Reducerea riscului ntr-un portofoliu se realizeaz prin diversificare. Gestiunea portofoliului de instrumente financiare are ca scop maximizarea relaiei rentabilitate risc, pentru a permite investitorilor instituionali i individuali un comportament investiional n strns legtur cu atitudinea individual fa de risc.1 Gestiunea portofoliului poate fi privit ca totalitatea metodelor i modelelor prin intermediul crora s se obin combinaia optim a instrumentelor financiare din punct de vedere al raportului rentabilitate risc. n aceste condiii, deciziile care se iau n activitatea de gestiune a portofoliului au in vedere randamentul portofoliului, precum i riscul aferent. Activitatea de gestiune a portofoliului este una complex care necesit o desfurare continu ntruct, modificrile aprute asupra variabilelor determinante pentru rentabilitatea i riscul instrumentelor componente n portofoliu, vor impune efectuarea de modificri n structura portofoliului. Avnd n vedere aspectele menionate anterior, se poate concluziona c gestiunea eficient a portofoliului are ca obiectiv identificarea combinaiei optime de instrumente financiare la un grad de risc dat pe care investitorul accept s i-l asume. n activitatea teoretic, dar mai ales n cea practic practic se regsesc dou categorii de gestiune de portofoliu difereniate n raport cu gradul gradul de risc al activului de capital. Acestea sunt gestiunea pasiv, rspectiv gestiunea activ. Gestiunea pasiv are la baz principiul prin care se ine cont de teoria pieelor eficiente. Eficiena unei piee se concretizeaz n abilitatea acesteia de a servi obiectivului pentru care ea exist. n cazul pieei financiare, acest obiectiv este constituit de transferul capitalurilor de la posesorii de fonduri temporar disponibile n economie ctre aceia care resimt o nevoie surse de finanare.Piaa eficient are trstura c preul instrumentelor financiare se modific ntr-un ritm accelerat atunci cnd pe pia apar informaii noi.Astfel, preurile curente ale instrumentelor ncorporeaz toate informaiile legate de instrumentele financiare.Teoria pieelor eficiente arat c preurile aciunilor n evoluie ncorporeaz influena factorilor financiari, economici, monetari, dar i psihologici. Nu se poate anticipa modalitatea n care preurile vor varia pot, astfel c nu exist investitori care s reueasc s depeasc piaa. Acesta este argumentul pentru care sunt mai muli gestionari pasivi dect cei activi.
1 Badea Leonardo - Model privind gestiunea rentabilitii i riscului valorilor mobiliare, Economie teoretic i aplicat, 2008
260
Gestiunea pasiv presupune ca structura portofoliului construit s fie ct mai apropiat de cea a portofoliului pieei financiare. Potrivit acestei strategii, nu se poate realiza regulat o performan a portofoliului care s fie superioar performanei pieei financiare n ansamblul su. n aceste condiii, piaa financiar constituie unjoc cu suma ctigurilor nul, adic ceea ce un investitor reuete s ctige este dat de pierderea altuia2. Riscul unui portofoliu este, n ntregime, explicat prin intermediul riscului de pia, potrivit modelului de echilibru al activelor financiare. Prin diversificare, riscul specific poate fi micorat sau chiar nlturat, n momentul n care n portofoliu este inclus un numr mai mare de instrumente. n aceast situaie, rentabilitatea portofoliului care se sper s se obin va fi egal cu rentabilitatea pieei. Gestiunea pasiv are la baz principiul de a urma ceea ce se ntmpl pe pia, fr s foloseasc anticiprile referitoare la evoluia ei. n situaia n care pieele sunt eficiente, cu certitudine trebuie adoptat o gestiune pasiv ntruct gestiunea activ este inutil i scump. n aceste condiii, pieele nu mai sunt eficiente dac toi gestionarii de portofolii utilizeaz o strategie pasiv, caz n care devine rentabil gestiunea activ. O condiie a eficienei pieelor este existena gestionarilor care mbrieaz strategia activ. Avnd ca obiectiv obinerea unui ctig mai mare, gestionarii activi au ca politic asumarea unor riscuri suplimentare. Gestiunea activ se bazeaz pe tipul instrumentelor care fac parte din portofoliu, respectiv instrumentele sunt selectate n funcie de calitile lor proprii i nu n funcie de apartenena lor la un anumit indice sau sector de activitate. Scopul principal al gestiunii active a portofoliului l constituie realizarea unei performane mai mari fa de cea a pieei, deci a unui benchmark stabilit (indice de referin). Aceast modalitate de gestiune este ntemeiat pe ideea c piaa financiar nu este eficient. Acest lucru nseamn c, ntre momentul n care apare o nou informaie pe pia i momentul n care se determin ajustarea preului instrumentelor n funcie de aceasta, exist un anumit interval de timp (ajustarea nu are loc n timp real). De-a lungul timpului, s-a ajuns la concluzia c pe intervale de timp foarte scurte, cursurile aciunilor nu sunt la echilibru, putnduse astefel obine profit. Gestiunea activ a portofoliului de instrumente financiare presupune aplicarea unor strategii al cror interes este acela de a beneficia de pe urma ineficienei pieei. innd cont de previziunile referitoare la majorrile i diminurile de valoare pentru perioadele viitoare, instrumentului financiar i se determin o anumit valoare care se compar cu preul de pe pia. Astfel, se execut operaiuni de arbitraj n raport de supraevaluarea sau subevaluarea instrumentelor. Adepii gestiunii active au n vedere pe o serie de aspecte i anume:
2 Dragot, Victor (coordonator) Gestiunea portofoliului de valori mobiliare ediia a doua, Editura Economic, 2009
261
societile cu o dezvoltare agresiv nregistreaz majorrile cele mai mari n venituri i profituri care sunt preluate n preul aciunilor n acelai sens (mai poart denumirea de aciuni n cretere); investiia n aciunile societilor cu dezvoltare agresiv realizeaz pe o perioad ndelungat randamente mai mari; ntruct societile cu dezvoltare agresiv sunt dinamice i nu se adapteaz la modificrile intervenite n economiile naionale conduc la meninerea randamentelor superioare pe durate mari de timp. Trebuie precizat faptul c portofoliile gestionate activ conin mai puineinstrumente dect cele gestionate pasiv, deoarece acestea implic un volum de munc mult mai consistent, fiind necesar analiza fiecrui instrument n parte. Din aceste considerente, gestiunea activ are costuri mai ridicate dect cea pasiv. Din cele menionate anterior, se constat c gestiunea activ se bazeaz pe o previziune corect a preurilor aciunilor, n timp ce cea pasiv pe datele curente oferite de pia. Dilema alegerii categoriei de gestiune ce urmeaz a fi utilizat se nlatur prin stabilirea de strategii investiionale n funcie de nclinaia ctre risc a fiecrui investitor. Prin gestiunea portofoliului se urmrete s se optimizeze deinerea de instrumente financiare. Dar, trebuie spus c optimul are nsemntate diferit n funcie de fiecare investitor n parte, tiut fiind faptul c acetia au grade diferite de toleran i aversiune n ceea ce privete expunerea fa de risc. Investitorul decide care este acea combinaie de instrumente financiare pe care o apreciz ca fiind optim, innd cont de atitudinea pe care o are fa de risc3. Evaluarea portofoliuluise efectueaz pe baza criteriului rentabilitate - risc. Rentabilitatea semnific nivelul ctigului asigurat de ctre o investiie. ntre rentabilitatea unei investiii i riscul aferent se manifest o relaie direct proporional: cu ct riscul este mai mic, cu att rentabilitatea investiiei care se poate realiza este mai redus, dar cu ct riscurile asumate sunt mai mari, cu att crete i rentabilitatea investiiei. n concluzie se poate spune c investitorul trebuie s aib n vedere categoria de instrumente financiare care asigur un raportul optim ntre rentabilitate i risc, raport ajustat n funcie de aversiunea fa de risc a acestuia, precum i de ateptrile pe care le are fa de portofoliu, dar i posibilitile financiare de care dispune. 2. Modele clasice utilizate n managementul portofoliului de instrumente financiare nceputurile teoriei managementului portofoliului de instrumente financiare le putem regsi n prima jumtate a secolului XX, aceasta fiind perioada n care au fost schiate primele metode de analiz a riscului i rentabilitii investiiilor n instrumente financiare. Astfel, la nceputul secolului trecut s-au
3
Anghel M.G. Noiuni generale privind managementul portofoliilor de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul tiinific internaional, mai 2011, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
262
afirmat o serie de modele de analiz a investiiilor financiare precum: modelul fair game, modelul martingale i submartingale sau modelul random walk. Modelul fair game Modelul fair game a fost pentru prima dat adus n discuie de Louis Bachelier (1900) n lucrarea sa de dizertaie Teoria speculaiei i a fost preluat ulterior de ctre Paul Cootner n lucrarea intitulat The Random Character of Stock Market Prices (Caracterul aleator al cursului bursier)4. Bachelier a evideniat faptul c luarea deciziei de plasament pe pieele financiare se bazeaz pe dou tipuri de probabiliti: o probabilitate matematic ce poate fi asociat evenimentelor pur aleatoare i a doua categorie de probabiliti dependente de producerea unor evenimente viitoare. Aceast a doua categorie de probabiliti este una subiectiv i ea nu poate fi observat n evoluia anterioar a preului activelor financiare. n acest fel se poate spune c preurile pe pia evolueaz corect (fair game), reflectnd toate evenimentele ce pot fi cunoscute pe pia la momentul deciziei i nu evenimente care ar putea s apar. Ulterior activitii desfurate de ctre Louis Bachelier se remarc ncercrile de a sistematiza ntr-o form matematic acest model efectuate Eugene Fama, dar i ncercri de a dezvolta acest model prin aplicarea sa asupra evoluiei titlurilor financiare tranzacionate pe piaa nord american sau pe cea european. Modelul martingale i submartingale Un alt model important n teoria clasic a portofoliului este modelul martingale i submartingale, model prin care s-a demonstrat c n timp n evoluia preului activelor financiare poate s apar o legtur de interdependen (autocorelaia). Studiile au artat c dac pj,t este preul unui activ j la momentul t, evoluia acestui pre este un proces stohastic de tipmartingale dac: sau un proces de tip submartingale dac: Studiile efectuate au artat c, dac preul unui activ urmeaz o evoluie de tip martingale, atunci profitul ateptat are o evoluie conform cu cea descris de modelul fair game. Maurice Le Roy a demonstrat n 1989 pe un portofoliu de aciuni c reciproca nu este ns valabil. O serie de teste empirice efectuate ulterior pe diferite serii de preuri ale unor active de pe pieele financiare internaionale au demonstrat c cea mai mare parte a preurilor la activele de pe pia urmeaz o evoluie de tip martingale. Ipotezele acestui model, s-au impus n teoria modern a portofoliului. S-a demonstrat ulterior c dac preul unui activ financiar nu urmeaz o evoluie de tip martingale nseamn c acest pre nu este corect format pe pia i c exist oportuniti de arbitraj care pot fi valorificate. n baza ipotezei pieelor eficiente, aceste oportuniti de arbitraj vor fi exploatate de investitori pn cnd ele vor disprea i preul activului va urma un proces stohastic de tip martingale.
4
Cootner, P.- The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1964
263
Modelul random walk Teoria random walk a fost dezvoltat nc din anul 1900, de ctre acelai Louis Bachellier5. Ea a fost ulterior confirmat empiric ulterior de ctre Alfred Cowels care n anii 1933 i 1937 a testat-o pe evoluia preului la aciuni pe piaa american, precum i de ctre Maurice Kendall care n 1953 a testat-o pe preul aciunilor i al mrfurilor pe piaa britanic i care a observat c acesta urmeaz o evoluie relativ aleatoare, aparent haotic. Concluzia acestui model este considerat a fi una fundamental pentru teoria modern a portofoliului i poate fi formulat astfel: randamentul unui activ j la momentul t+1 este independent de informaiile disponibile la momentul t. Cu alte cuvinte, nici cea mai bun estimare bazat pe informaiile disponibile n prezent nu poate explica evoluia ctigurilor ateptate pentru o perioad viitoare. Modelul Random Walk consider c pe o pia ce evolueaz n condiiile descrise de modelul fair game, ctigurile din plasamentele financiare n active al cror pre evolueaz aleator, sunt identice i independent distribuite n timp. n acelai timp modelul susine c pentru astfel de active, variana i deviaia sunt independente de cantitatea de informaii disponibile n momentul lurii deciziei. Studiile ulterioare realizate de Poteba i Summers (1986) au artat c, chiar i pentru active al cror pre urmeaz o evoluie aleatoare, exist o uoar modificare a volatilitii, Le Roy explicnd acest lucru prin perioadele de acalmie i turbulen din evoluia oricrui titlu financiar (1989). Un alt studiu realizat de Lo i MacKinlay pe diferite seturi de aciuni a demonstrat existena unei corelaii ntre titluri al cror pre evolueaz aleator pe pia, ceea ce ar infirma ipotezele de baz ale acestui model. Modelul random walk a avut implicaii serioase n teoria modern a portofoliului, mai ales asupra explicrii corelaiei ntre pre i valoarea companiei, echilibrul pieelor financiare n condiiile n care preul include toate informaiile disponibile i a normalitii modificrilor de pre. Mandelbrot a demonstrat c distribuia modificrilor de pre cnd ipoteza random walk este confirmat nu ar fi normal distribuit, curba distribuiilor fiind nclinat semnificativ spre dreapta (1963). Schwert i Seguin (1990) au artat i ei prin studii empirice c n unele cazuri, evoluia de tip random walk ncalc ipoteza normalitii probabilitilor de distribuie. Modelul random walk a fost considerat de ctre specialiti ca un model mult prea restrictiv pentru plasamentele financiare. n acest sens, este de ramarcat faptul c, fcnd referire la acest model, Mandelbrot (1966) a artat c este posibil crearea de modele care s nu se bazeze pe ipoteza c preurile pe pia au o evoluie pur aleatoare. n opinia lui Mandelbrot, aceste modele trebuie s ia n considerare dependena care exist ntre preurile activelor la momente diferite de timp, ea nefiind relevant ns pentru creterea profiturilor ateptate. De asemenea, Eugene
Bachellier, L. Teoria speculaiei, 1900
264
Fama, atunci cnd a emis ipoteza pieelor eficiente6, a demonstrat c ipotezele specifice modelului random walk sunt unele mult prea restrictive i nu pot fi aplicate eficient n condiiile pieei reale. n ciuda restriciilor sale, ipoteza random walk s-a dovedit foarte util i important pentru cercetrile legate de funcionarea pieelor de capital. O serie numeroas de cercetri empirice efectuate asupra pieelor de capital generate de aceast ipotez au constituit un fundament important pentru teoria modern a portofoliului (mai ales pentru teoria pieelor eficiente). nc aceast ipotez mai domin discuiile cu privire la relevana sa n cazul unei piee eficiente. Chiar i cei care au adus dovezi mpotriva acestui model (Lo i MacKinlay n mod special) iau nuanat ulterior prerile. Este clar c renunarea definitiv la acest model ar avea impact major asupra teoriei pieelor eficiente. Aceste ncercri de sistematizare a noiunilor referitoare la investiiile pe pieele de capital sunt considerate, n zilele noastre, ca fiind unele cu rezultate relativ modeste, ele fiind nlocuite cu teoria modern a portofoliului. n acest sens, sunt de remarcat eforturile depuse n acest domeniu de ctre Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Stephan Ross, Eugene Famma etc. Este de remarcat faptul c, modelele specifice teoriei moderne a portofoliilor sunt utilizate ca baz n marea majoritate a analizelor efectuate asupra performanelor portofoliilor de instrumente financiare. Bibliografie selectiv Anghel M.G. Noiuni generale privind managementul portofoliilor de instrumente financiare, Simpozionul tiinific internaional, mai 2011, Editura Artifex, Bucureti ; Badea Leonardo - Model privind gestiunea rentabilitii i riscului valorilor mobiliare, Economie teoretic i aplicat, 2008; Bachellier, L. Teoria speculaiei, 1900; Cootner, P. - The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, 1964; Dragot, Victor (coordonator) Gestiunea portofoliului de valori mobiliare ediia a doua, Editura Economic, 2009 Fama, Eugene - Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work; Journal of Finance, vol. 25, 1970
Fama, Eugene - Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work; Journal of Finance, vol. 25, 1970
265
Investiiile strine directe n Romnia n perioada 2003 - 2012

Prof. univ. dr. Marin DINU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti Prof. univ. dr. Constantin ANGHELACHE Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti / Universitatea Artifex din Bucureti Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti / Universitatea Cretin Dimitrie Cantemir Abstract This paper outlines the evolution of foreign direct investments in Romania during the period 2003-2012. Based on official data and the extensive use of modern presentation techniques and econometric instruments, the research procedure reveals useful conclusions for the analysis and interpretation of this macroeconomic indicator. Key words: investment, resident, capital, subsidiary, credit JEL Classification: E44, E22
1. Noiuni generale Investiia strin direct: relaie investiional de durat ntre o entitate rezident i o entitate nerezident; de regul, implic exercitarea de ctre investitor a unei influene manageriale semnificative n ntreprinderea n care a investit. Sunt considerate investiii strine directe: capitalul social vrsat i rezervele ce revin unui investitor nerezident care deine cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris alunei ntreprinderi rezidente, creditele dintre acest investitor sau grupul din care face parte acesta i ntreprinderea n care a investit, precum i profitul reinvestit de ctre acesta. De asemenea, sunt considerate investiii strine directe capitalurile din companiile rezidente asupra crora investitorul nerezident exercit o influen semnificativ pe cale indirect, i anume: capitalurile proprii ale asociatelor i filialelor rezidente ale ntreprinderii rezidente n care investitorul nerezident deine cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris. Investitorul strin direct: persoan juridic, persoan fi zic sau grup de persoane ce acioneaz concertat, care deine cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris (respectiv din capitalul de dotare al entitilor fr personalitate juridic) sau cel puin 10 la sut din voturi ntr-o ntreprindere situat n afara propriei ri de reziden.
266
ntreprinderea investiie strin direct: este o ntreprindere rezident, cu sau fr personalitate juridic, n care un investitor nerezident deine cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris sau din voturi, respectiv din capitalul de dotare n cazul ntreprinderilor fr personalitate juridic (sucursale). Deinerea a cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris sau din voturi, respectiv din capitalul de dotare, este primordial n stabilirea relaiei de investiie direct. ntreprinderea investiie strin direct de gradul II: este o ntreprindere rezident, cu personalitate juridic, n care un investitor strin direct controleaz, prin intermediulunei ntreprinderi investiie strin direct, cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social subscris. ntreprinderile investiie strin direct de gradul II sunt filiale sau asociate ale ntreprinderilor investiie strin direct. Filialele reprezint companiile rezidente n care ntreprinderile ISD dein cel puin 50 la sut din capitalul social subscris, iar asociatele sunt companiile rezidente n care ntreprinderile ISD dein ntre 10 i 50 la sut din capitalul social subscris. Investiia direct reversibil: relaia investiional de sens invers investiiei strine directe pe care o ntreprindere investiie direct rezident o are cu investitorul strin direct, dac ntreprinderea rezident are o participaie de sub 10 la sut din capitalul social al investitorului strin direct. Componentele investiiilor strine directe: Capitaluri proprii: capitalul social subscris i vrsat, att n numerar, ct i prin contribuii n natur, deinut de nerezideni n companii rezidente, precum i cota aferent din rezerve; n mod corespunztor, n cazul sucursalelor, se ia n considerare capitalul de dotare aflat la dispoziia acestora; Creditul net: creditele primite de ctre ntreprinderea investiie strin direct de la investitorul strin direct sau din cadrul grupului de firme nerezidente din care face parte acesta, mai puin creditele acordate de ctre ntreprinderea investiie strin direct investitorului strin direct sau unei alte firme din cadrul grupului respectiv de firme. Tipurile investiiilor strine directe (difereniate dup contribuia fluxului de participaii strine la capital n ntreprinderile investiie strin direct): Greenfield: nfiinarea de ntreprinderi de ctre sau mpreun cu investitori strini (investiii pornite de la zero); Fuziuni i achiziii: preluarea integral sau parial de ntreprinderi de ctre investitori strini de la rezideni; Dezvoltare de firme: majorarea deinerilor de capital ale investitorilor strini n ntreprinderi investiie strin direct. 2. Investiiile strine directe n Romnia n perioada 2003 2012 Fluxul net de ISD n anul 2012 a nregistrat un nivel de 1799 milioane euro i este structurat astfel: participaii nete la capital n valoare de 1543 milioane euro i credite nete n valoare de 256 milioane euro.
Tabelul nr. 1. Evoluia fluxurilor ISD n perioada 2003 - 2012 - milioane euro INDICATORI Fluxuri ISD-total, din care: Participaii la capital Credite 2003 1946 1263 683 2004 5183 4484 699 2005 5213 3852 1361 2006 9059 6832 2227 2007 7250 3547 3703 2008 9496 4873 4623 2009 3488 1729 1759 2010 2220 1824 396 2011 1815 1512 303 2012* 1799 1543 256
* Date previzionate Participaiile nete ale investitorilor strini direci la capitalul ntreprinderilor investiie strin direct din Romnia n valoare de 1 543 milioane euro (85,77 % din fluxul net de ISD). Participaiile nete la capital rezult din diminuarea participaiilor la capital cu pierderea net. Pierderea net a rezultat prin scderea din profitul net al ntreprinderilor ISD a dividendelor repartizate n anul 2012, dup care aceast valoare a fost diminuat cu pierderile ntreprinderilor ISD din anul 2012. Modul de calcul este n conformitate cu metodologia internaional de determinare a profitului reinvestit de ctre ntreprinderile ISD, respectiv a pierderii nete nregistrate de ctre acestea.
Credite
10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000

4484 699 1361 6832 4873 3852 3547 1729 1759 396 1824 303 1512 3703 2227 4623
Participa ii la capital
2000 1000 0
683 1263
256 1543
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figura nr. 1. Evoluia fluxurilor ISD n perioada 2003 - 2012 Creditul net primit de ctre ntreprinderile investiie strin direct de la investitorii strini direci, inclusiv din cadrul grupului, n sum de 256 milioane euro, reprezentnd 14,23 % din fluxul net al ISD. 3. Analiza fluxului net de investiii strine directe cu ajutorul modelelor econometrice Analiza factorilor ce influeneaz evoluia investiiilor strine directe se poate realiza cu ajutorul modelelor de regresie, utiliznd n acest sens fie forma lor
268
simpl (cu o singur variabil explicativ), fie varianta multipl (cu dou variabile factoriale). Un prim model de analiz vizeaz corelaia dintre participaia la capital (PC) i valoarea investiiilor strine directe (ISD). Pentru a stabili relaia existent ntre cele dou variabile am procedat, cu ajutorul pachetului informatic Eviews 5.1., la reprezentarea grafic a evoluiei celor doi indicatori n perioada 2008 2012.
Dup cum se poate observa, evoluia celor doi indicatori este una relativ asementoare, cu valori ridicate n primul an supus analizei i diminuri treptate n celelalte patru intervale cercetate. Aceast evoluie poate fi reflectat i prin trasarea perechilor de puncte formate din valorile participaiei la capital i cele ale investiiilor strine directe.
269
Din reprezentarea grafic precedent, putem stabili faptul c cele cinci perechi de puncte aproximeaz traiectoria unei drepte, ceea ce ne permite s afirmm c relaia dintre participaia de capital i investiiile strine directe poate fi reflectat cu ajutorul unui model liniar de regresie simpl, n care primul indicator joac rolul variabilei factoriale, iar ISD reprezint variabila rezultativ. Acest model de analiz a fost implementat cu ajutorul programului informatic Eviews, rezultatele fiind prezentate n urmtoarea figur:
Din calculele efectuate, am putut deduce urmtorul model de regresie: ISD = - 1144,65 + 2,15 PC
Se observ faptul c participaia la capital reprezint un factor principal de influen pentru evoluia investiiilor strine directe n perioada considerat. Astfel, pentru o modificare cu o unitate monetar a variabilelei explicative va rezulta o evoluie corespunztoare de 2,15 uniti monetare a valorii investiiilor strine directe. n ceea ce privete exactitatea acestui model, se remarc faptul c probabilitatea asociat acestuia este de aproximativ 95%, cu un grad de risc practic nul, ceea ce ne permite s l utilizm n analiza econometric a variabilelor cercetate. n continuare, am realizat (respectnd aceeai metodologie de analiz) un model econometric care s reflecte corelaia dintre valoarea creditelor intragrup i cea a investiiilor strine directe.
Dup cum se poate observa, i n acest caz, relaia dintre cele dou variabile este una liniar, astfel c putem utiliza acelai tip de model de regresie
pentru a stabili influena creditelor intragrup asupra evoluiei investiiilor strine directe. Rezultatele estimate cu ajutorul programului Eviews se prezint astfel:
Pe baza acestei analize, modelul de regresie poate fi transcris astfel: ISD = 868, 83 + 1,82 CIG. Din acest model, rezult c pentru o cretere cu o unitate monetar a valorii creditelor intragrup se va produce o modificare, n acelai sens, cu 1,82 uniti monetare a investiiilor strine directe. Astfel, putem afirma c i n acest caz influena variabilei explicative asupra celei rezultative este una semnificativ. De asemenea, se remarc faptul c i acest model are o probabilitate asociat de circa 98%, el fiind unul ce poate fi utilizat cu succes n activitile practice de analiz a corelaiei dintre cele dou mrimi economice. Este ns important s observm faptul c n ambele modele de regresie menionate anterior valoarea termenului liber este una foarte mare, ceea ce conduce la ideea c factorii de influen ce nu au fost luai n considerare la construcia modelului este una mai mult dect semnificativ. Pentru a elimina un astfel de neajuns este indicat s se implementeze un model de regresie multipl, n care evoluia investiiilor strine directe s fie reflectat prin dou variabile explicative, respectiv participaia la capital i creditele intragrup. Rezultatele obinute cu ajutorul unui model de regresie multipl se prezint astfel:
272
Forma rezultat din analiza seriei de date considerate este: ISD = 19,14 + 0,83 PC + 1,16 CIG Astfel, se observ c o cretere cu o unitate monetar a valorii participaiei la capital va induce o modificare pozitiv a investiiilor strine directe cu 0,83 uniti monetare, n timp ce o evoluie similar a creditelor intragrup va conduce la augmentarea valorii variabilei rezultative cu aproximativ 1,16 uniti monetare. De asemenea, se remarc faptul c valoarea termenului liber asociat acestui model de analiz s-a redus semnificativ, valoarea fatorilor ce nu au fost luai n considerare putnd fi considerat a fi relativ minor. Nu n ultimul rnd, putem concluziona c un astfel de model poate fi utilizat cu succes n analizele practice, el avnd o probabilitate de peste 99% i un grad de risc practic nul. 4. Soldul investiiilor strine directe la sfritul anului Soldul final al ISD la 31 decembrie 2012 a nregistrat nivelul de 60 824 milioane euro, mai mare cu 10,31 % fa de soldul final ISD al anului 2011. Acest rezultat a fost obinut prin adugarea la soldul iniial al fluxului net de ISD a diferenelor valorice pozitive/negative provenite att din reevalurile datorate modificrii cursului de schimb i a preurilor unor active, ct i din retratri contabile ale valorii soldurilor iniiale ale unor ntreprinderi raportoare.
Tabelul nr. 2. Evoluia soldului ISD n perioada 2003 2012

INDICATORI Sold ISD - total, din care: Participaii la capital (inclusiv profituri reinvestite) Credite 2003 9662 2004 15040 2005 21885 2006 34512 2007 42770 2008 48798 2009 49984 2010 52585 2011 55139 2012* 60824
7092 2570
12007 3033
17490 4395
27016 7496
31501 11269
34892 13906
35600 14384
35529 17056
37001 18138
40740 20084
* Date previzionate
70000 Credite Participaii la capital (inclusiv profituri reinvestite)
60000 20084 13906 40000 7496 11269 14384 17056 18138
50000
30000 4395 3033 10000 2570 7092 0 2003 2004 2005 12007 17490
20000
27016
31501
34892
35600
35529
37001
40740
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figura nr. 2. Evoluia soldului ISD n perioada 2003 2012 Participaiile la capitalul social (inclusiv profitul reinvestit) al ntreprinderilor investiie strin direct aveau la sfritul anului 2012 valoarea de 40 740 milioane euro (66,98 % din soldul final al ISD), iar creditul net total primit de ctre acestea de la investitorii strini direci, inclusiv din cadrul grupului, a nregistrat nivelul de 20 084 milioane euro, reprezentnd 33,01 % din soldul final al ISD. Creditul net cuprinde creditele pe termen mediu i lung, ct i cele pe termen scurt acordate de ctre investitorii strini ntreprinderilor lor din Romnia, att direct ct, i prin intermediul altor firme nerezidente membre ale grupului. 5. Repartizarea soldului investiiilor strine directe pe principalele activiti economice Din punct de vedere al orientrii investitorilor strini spre ramuri economice (conform CAEN Rev.2), ISD s-au localizat cu precdere n industria prelucrtoare (31,9 % din total). n cadrul acestei industrii cele mai bine reprezentate ramuri sunt prelucrarea ieiului, produse chimice, cauciuc i mase plastice (7,2 % din total), industria mijloacelor de transport (5,4 %), metalurgia (4,5 %), industria alimentar, a buturilor i tutunului (3,9 %) i ciment, sticl, ceramic (3,1 %).
274
Tabelul nr. 2. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 - 2012
* Date previzionate
Industria extractiv 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Industria prelucrtoare Energie electric, gaze i ap Activiti profesionale, tiin ifice, tehnice i administrative i servicii suport Agricultur , silvicultur i pescuit Comer Construcii i tranzacii imobiliare Hoteluri i restaurante Intermedieri financiare i asigurri Tehnologia informaiei i comunica ii Transporturi Alte activiti
Figura nr. 3. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 - 2012
275
Alte activiti care au atras importante ISD sunt intermedierile financiare i asigurrile (reprezentnd 17,9 % din totalul ISD), comerul (11,6 %), construciile i tranzaciile imobiliare (9,2 %), tehnologia informaiei i comunicaiile (5,2 %). 6. Imobilizrile corporale i necorporale n ntreprinderile investiie strin direct Avnd n vedere rolul foarte important n creterea economic pe care l joac imobilizrile corporale i cele necorporale, precum i caracterul de durat pe care acestea l imprim ISD, cercetarea statistic i-a propus determinarea ponderii acestor categorii de destinaii finale ale investiiilor n soldul ISD la finele anului 2012, ct i repartizarea lor pe principalele activiti economice. Se constat c imobilizrile corporale i necorporale, cu un sold la finele anului 2012 n valoare de 27 570 milioane euro, reprezint 49 % din soldul total al ISD, ceea ce conduce la un grad semnificativ de stabilitate a investiiei strine. Tabelul nr. 3. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a soldului imobilizrilor corporale i necorporale la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 2012
* Date previzionate
276
Industria extractiv 2012* 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Industria prelucr toare Energie electric , gaze i ap Activiti profesionale, tiin ifice, tehnice i administrative i servicii suport Agricultur , silvicultur i pescuit Comer Construcii i tranzacii imobiliare Hoteluri i restaurante Intermedieri financiare i asigur ri Tehnologia informa iei i comunica ii Transporturi Alte activiti
Figura nr. 4. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a soldului imobilizrilor corporale i necorporale la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 2012 Activitile economice n care ISD se regsesc n imobilizri corporale i necorporale la un nivel semnificativ (peste 5 %) sunt: industria (27,7 % din total ISD), iar n cadrul acesteia industria prelucrtoare (cu 18,4 % din total ISD), comerul (6,6 la sut), precum i construciile i tranzaciile imobiliare (5,3 %). 2.2.3. Repartizarea soldului investiiilor strine directe pe regiuni de dezvoltare Din punct de vedere teritorial se observ orientarea cu precdere a ISD spre regiunea de dezvoltare BUCURETI-ILFOV (59,5 %), alte regiuni de dezvoltare beneficiare de ISD fiind regiunea VEST (7,2 %), regiunea SUDMUNTENIA (7,2 %), regiunea CENTRU (7,0 %) i regiunea SUD-EST (5,1 %). Regiunea NORD-EST este cea mai puin atractiv pentru investitorii strini, aici nregistrndu-se numai 2,8 % din investiia strin direct. Tabelul nr. 4. Repartizarea pe regiuni de dezvoltare a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, perioada 2003 2012
277
2012 2011 2010
BUCURE TI ILFO V
CENTRU SUD MUNTENIA
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 NORD EST NORD VEST VEST
SUD EST
SUD VEST OLTENIA
Figura nr. 5. Repartizarea pe regiuni de dezvoltare a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, perioada 2003 - 2012 La analiza dispersiei teritoriale a ISD trebuie avut n vedere i faptul c cercetarea statistic a localizat teritorial ISD dup sediul social al ntreprinderilor investiie direct, ceea ce nu corespunde ntotdeauna cu locul de desfurare a activitii economice. 7. Repartizarea soldului investiiilor strine directe pe ri de origine Repartizarea soldului ISD n funcie de rile de provenien a capitalului este redat n tabelul urmtor. Sunt evideniate toate rile de origine a investiiilor directe de cel puin 100 milioane euro. Repartizarea a fost realizat n funcie de ara deintorului nemijlocit a cel puin 10 la sut din capitalul social al ntreprinderilor investiie strin direct rezidente, conform principiului Immediate Country Basis. Tabelul nr. 5. Repartizarea pe ri de origine a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, perioada 2008 - 2012 Valoare (milioane euro) TARA 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL, din care: 48798 49984 52585 55139 Olanda 8402 10907 10903 11982 Austria 9186 9037 9346 9667 Germania 7509 6718 6398 6272 Frana 4294 4259 4384 5042 Italia 3585 2528 2808 3341 Grecia 3154 3281 3016 2934 Cipru 1896 2344 2550 2536 Elveia 2298 2115 2021 1839 Statele Unite ale Americii 869 1054 1349 1420 Luxemburg 1107 638 989 1274 Belgia 233 1115 864 1116 Spania 604 841 1064 958
278
2012 58315 12695 9690 5886 4981 3003 2885 2777 1765 1592 1208 1287 1146
TARA
Cehia Marea Britanie Turcia Ungaria Suedia Liban Canada Danemarca Norvegia Polonia Portugalia Irlanda Gibraltar Insulele Virgine Britanice Japonia Finlanda Israel BERD (Banca European pentru Reconstrucie i Dezvoltare) Alte ri * 1568 939 1079 * ri de origine a unor investiii mai mici de 100 milioane euro
2012
2008 354 727 578 878 206 159 219 193 180 250 197 152
Valoare (milioane euro) 2009 2010 2011 580 972 816 482 627 719 569 615 622 810 717 611 146 312 402 138 254 330 125 207 256 111 384 241 209 157 211 198 104 206 194 137 146 193 118 161 193 228 379 190 154 183 173 156 170 186 155 166 144 158 162 903
2012 1075 677 636 566 434 358 249 411 261 277 273 238 179 296 248 134 148 164 765
O landa Austria Germania Fran a Italia
2011
Grecia Cipru
2010
Elve ia Statele Unite ale Americii Luxemburg
2009
Belgia Spania Cehia
2008
Marea Britanie Turcia
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Ungaria
Figura nr. 6. Repartizarea pe ri de origine a soldului ISD la 31 decembrie, perioada 2008 - 2012 Primele 4 ri clasate dup ponderea deinut n soldul ISD la 31 decembrie 2012 sunt: Olanda (21,8 %), Austria (16,6 %), Germania (10,1 %) i Frana (8,5 %), ierarhie neschimbat din anul 2009.
8. Tipuri de investiii strine directe Fluxul de participaii la capital n ntreprinderile ISD n anul 2011, n valoare de 4 009 milioane euro, este difereniat n greenfield, fuziuni i achiziii i dezvoltare de firme. n anul 2011 investiiile greenfield au nregistrat un nivel foarte redus, de numai 27 milioane euro reprezentnd 0,7 la sut din participaiile la capital n ntreprinderile investiie strin direct, n aceeai situaie aflndu-se i investiiile din categoria fuziuni i achiziii (M&A) cu 86 milioane euro (2,1 la sut din participaii); ponderea predominant n fluxul participaiilor la capital n 2011 este reprezentat de dezvoltrile de firme cu o valoare de 3 896 milioane euro, respectiv 97,2 la sut din participaii. Pentru a aprecia impactul de durat al investiiilor greenfield asupra economiei, au fost evideniate i acumulrile de investiii strine directe (solduri) n ntreprinderile nfiinate prin investiii greenfield, denumite ntreprinderi greenfield. Din punct de vedere al repartizrii pe principalele activiti economice, investiiile strine directe n ntreprinderi greenfield s-au orientat cu precdere spre industria prelucrtoare (28,6 la sut din soldul ISD n ntreprinderi greenfield). Alte ramuri n care aceste investiii au o pondere semnificativ sunt: comerul (19,6 la sut), construciile i tranzaciile imobiliare (14,7 la sut), intermedierile financiare i asigurrile (14,2 la sut). Cea mai mare parte a investiiilor strine directe n ntreprinderi greenfield se concentreaz, ca i ansamblul ISD, n regiunea BUCURETI-ILFOV (60,5 la sut din soldul ISD n ntreprinderi greenfield); urmeaz regiunea CENTRU cu 11,0 la sut i regiunile VEST i SUDMUNTENIA cu 9,3 la sut, respectiv 6,3 la sut din soldul ISD n ntreprinderi greenfield. Considerat dup mrimea investiiilor strine directe n ntreprinderi greenfield, ordinea rilor de provenien a acestora difer ntr-o oarecare msur de ordinea stabilit n funcie de originea soldului total al ISD. Astfel, cele mai mari investiii n ntreprinderi greenfield provin din Olanda (19,3 la sut), urmate de cele din Germania (18,0 la sut), Austria (10,7 la sut) i Italia (8,7 la sut). Tabelul nr. 6. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a investiiilor strine directe n ntreprinderi greenfield la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2008 2011
280
9. Veniturile realizate din investiii strine directe Veniturile nete obinute de ctre investitorii strini direci n anul 2011 au nsumat 411 milioane euro, ceea ce reprezint o diminuare cu 80 milioane euro n raport fa de anul precedent. Veniturile nete sunt constituite din veniturile din participaii la capital i din veniturile nete din dobnzi. Veniturile din participaii la capital reprezint profiturile nete obinute de ntreprinderile ISD, n valoare de 4 710 milioane euro, diminuate cu pierderile nregistrate de ntreprinderile ISD n sum de 5 132 milioane euro i reprezint pentru anul 2011 o pierdere de 422 milioane euro. Prin diminuarea veniturilor din participaii la capital cu valoarea dividendelor repartizate n anul 2011 investitorilor strini direci (n sum de 2 075 milioane euro) se obine o pierdere net, pe ansamblul ISD, de 2 497 milioane euro, calculat conform metodologiei internaionale de determinare a profitului reinvestit. Veniturile nete din dobnzi primite de ctre investitorii strini direci la creditele acordate ntreprinderilor lor din Romnia, att direct, ct i prin alte companii nerezidente din cadrul grupului, au nsumat 833 milioane euro. 10. Exporturile i importurile ntreprinderilor investiie strin direct Activitatea de export/import a ntreprinderilor ISD a avut un impact pozitiv asupra comerului exterior al Romniei, contribuia acestora la exporturi fiind de 71,4 la sut, n timp ce contribuia la importuri a fost de 62,6 la sut. Tabelul nr. 7. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a exporturilor ntreprinderilor ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 2012
281
Industria extractiv Industria pre lucr toare Ene rgie ele ctric , gaz e i ap Activit i profe sionale, tiin ifice , tehnice i administrative i se rvicii suport Agricultur , silvicultur i pe scuit Come r Construc ii i tranz ac ii imobiliare Hote luri i restaurante Inte rmedie ri financiare i asigur ri Te hnologia informa ie i i comunica ii Transporturi 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Alte activit i
2011
2010
Figura nr. 7 - Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a exporturilor ntreprinderilor ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2008 2012 Tabelul nr. 8. Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a importurilor ntreprinderilor ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2003 2012
282
Industria extractiv Industria prelucr toare Energie e le ctric , gaze i ap Activiti profesionale, tiin ifice, te hnice i administrative i servicii suport Agricultur , silvicultur i pe scuit Comer Construcii i tranzac ii imobiliare Hote luri i re staurante Intermedieri financiare i asigur ri Te hnologia informa ie i i comunica ii Transporturi 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Alte activiti
2011
2010
Figura nr. 8 - Repartizarea pe principalele activiti economice a importurilor ntreprinderilor ISD la 31 decembrie, n perioada 2008 20121 n ceea ce privete soldul balanei comerciale agregate a ntreprinderilor ISD pe diferitele ramuri economice, se constat c industria prelucrtoare este principala ramur cu excedent comercial (4 015 milioane euro), aceasta datornduse n special subramurilor mijloace de transport (excedent de 2 236 milioane euro), metalurgie (excedent de 1 479 milioane euro) i maini, utilaje i echipamente (excedent de 485 milioane euro). Trebuie menionat c ramura agricultur, silvicultur i pescuit, dei a nregistrat ISD la un nivel relativ redus (2,4 la sut din soldul ISD la 31 decembrie 2011), constituie cea de a doua ramur a economiei n care ntreprinderile ISD au nregistrat excedent comercial agregat (329 milioane euro). n toate celelalte ramuri ntreprinderile ISD au consemnat deficit comercial agregat. Exporturile i importurile ntreprinderilor ISD sunt cele aferente companiilor cercetate n mod exhaustiv (peste 20 de salariai)2. Datele privind
1
nu sunt incluse exporturile i importurile aferente activitilor diviziunilor CAEN: 84 Administraie public, 97/98 Activiti ale gospodriilor populaiei i 99 Activiti extrateritoriale Not: Exporturile i importurile sunt agregate dup activitatea de baz a firmelor, conform CAEN Rev. 2. 2 Cercetarea statistic privind investiiile strine directe (ISD) a fost realizat de Banca Naional a Romniei n colaborare cu Institutul Naional de Statistic. Obiectivul principal al cercetrii statistice a fost determinarea soldului ISD n Romnia la 31 decembrie 2011 i a fluxurilor (micrilor) ISD n cursul exerciiului financiar 2011 n ntreprinderile investiie strin direct rezidente. Baza de sondaj a cercetrii statistice a cuprins circa 45 600 ntreprinderi investiie strin direct. Volumul total de uniti cercetate, att exhaustiv, ct i aleator, a fost de 7 026. Au fost cercetate exhaustiv 6 049 ntreprinderi investiie strin direct, cuprinznd ntreprinderile cu cel puin 20 de salariai (5 656 uniti), toate instituiile de credit cu capital strin (38 de uniti), toate societile cu capital strin din domeniul asigurrilor (37 de uniti), precum i ntreprinderile considerate atipice (toate ntreprinderile investiie strin direct care au cifra de afaceri sau capitalul social de cel puin 30 milioane lei, indiferent de numrul de salariai existeni, respectiv 318 uniti).
283
exportul i importul pe ansamblul economiei, luate n calcul la determinarea mrimilor relative, sunt cele raportate de operatorii economici care au depit pragurile valorice de raportare pentru anul 2011, stabilite pentru declaraiile Intrastat. Bibliografie selectiv Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic n criz profund, Editura Economic, Bucureti Cucu, V., (2008) Modele de fundamentarea deciziei de investiie, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition, Oxford University Press Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez (2009) Two Books on the New Macroeconometrics, Taylor and Francis Journals, Econometric Reviews Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration, Editura ASE, Bucureti www. Bnr.ro
A fost cercetat aleator mulimea de ntreprinderi investiie strin direct avnd ntre 5 i 19 salariai inclusiv, aceasta fiind reprezentat de eantionul format din 977 uniti din totalul de 9 674 uniti. Deosebit de cele de mai sus, au fost cercetate exhaustiv i ntreprinderile ISD de gradul II (599 de uniti). Rata de rspuns a cercetrii statistice ISD a fost de 97,2 la sut. Gradul de eroare a rezultatelor cercetrii statistice privind investiiile strine directe n Romnia la 31 decembrie 2011 (fluxuri i solduri) este de 3 la sut, principalii indicatori cercetai fiind garantai cu o probabilitate de 95 la sut.
284
Utilizarea eficient a factorilor de producie

Prof. univ. dr. Alina Costina BRBULESCU TUDORACHE Ec. Mdlin BRBULESCU TUDORACHE Abstract Economic efficiency expresses the quality of human life concretized in useful effects from the viewpoint of the producer and consumer, depending on the efforts made to view economic results that satisfy human needs Key words: efficiency, effort, capital, production function, marginal JEL Classification: O12, D24
n cadrul eficienei economice este relevat relaia complex dintre efecte, respectiv, rezultatele activitilor economice i eforturi adic cheltuielile efectuate pentru obinerea lor. Eficiena economic este cu att mai mare cu ct la aceeai cantitate de factori de producie utilizai se obine o valoare mai mare a produciei, sau cnd o cantitate de produse dat este obinut cu un consum minim de factori de producie. n funcie de producie, eficiena factorilor de producie se exprim astfel: a. prin indicatorul denumit randamentul factorilor de producie utilizai, pe baza raportului: Rf = Q/CF, unde: Q valoarea produciei (venitul ncasat); CF consumul de factori. Acest raport exprim valoarea produciei obinut la o unitate de factori de producie utilizai. n cadrul acestei variante de calcul, sporirea eficienei presupune maximizarea acestui raport i este posibil n economie cnd cererea este n expansiune sau piaa este att de mare nct firma poate mri oferta; b. prin indicatorul consum specific de factori de producie, pe baza raportului: Csf = CF/Q. Acest raport exprim eforturile (consumul de factori) ce revin la o unitate de producie sau venit. n cadrul acestei variante de calcul, sporirea eficienei economice presupune minimizarea acestui raport i este posibil n economie atunci cnd cererea pe pia, pentru produsul respectiv, nu mai crete, sau n situaia cnd oferta de factori de producie este foarte limitat; c. randamentul capitalului calculat sub forma coeficientului capitalului, care exprim necesarul de capital pentru obinerea unei uniti de efect. Coeficientul capitalului se poate determina sub dou forme. Prima form este coeficientul mediu al capitalului, dup formula:
K = K / Q , unde: K coeficientul mediu al capitalului; K K volumul capitalului utilizat; K Q volumul rezultatelor obinute.
A doua form, coeficientul marginal al capitalului, reprezint un raport ntre creterea capitalului (K) i creterea rezultatelor (Q), conform formulei: Kmg = K/Q; d. profitabilitatea (rentabilitatea) produciei sau ntreprinderii. Profitabilitatea exprim capacitatea ntreprinderii de a aduce profit i se exprim prin intermediul ratei profitului calculat n procente, dup formula: Rpr = (Pr/C) 100, unde: Rpr rata profitului; Pr mrimea (masa) profitului; C capitalul utilizat. Rata profitului se mai poate calcula i dup relaia: Rpr = (Pr/CA)100, unde: CA cifra de afaceri; e. productivitatea factorilor de producie, care se determin prin raportul dintre rezultatele obinute i eforturile depuse. Determinarea nivelului productivitii factorilor de producie se poate face utiliznd metoda clasic i metoda funciilor de producie. Prin metoda clasic, productivitatea se determin raportnd fie indicatorii produciei la indicatorii factorilor de producie, fie, invers, raportnd indicatorii factorilor de producie la indicatorii produciei. n principiu, indicatorii productivitii factorilor de producie se exprim prin: productivitatea muncii (medie i marginal); productivitatea capitalului (medie i marginal); productivitatea pmntului (medie i marginal); productivitatea global (medie i marginal). Munca reprezint factorul cel mai important al oricrei activiti economice i sociale, iar rodnicia ei constituie una din formele de baz ale eficienei. Productivitatea muncii se definete ca fiind eficiena cu care este cheltuit o anumit cantitate de munc. Ea poate fi interpretat n dou feluri: a) ca for productiv a muncii, respectiv sub forma capacitii (posibilitii) forei de munc de a crea, ntr-o perioad de timp, un anumit volum de bunuri sau servicii; b) ca randament al factorului de producie-munc (randament al factorului uman). Aceast form de interpretare a productivitii muncii se explic prin faptul c pentru a crea bunuri economice, fora de munc trebuie s dispun de o anumit nzestrare tehnic. Aceast nzestrare tehnic a muncii este creaia muncii anterioare (trecute), care, la origine, este tot munc omeneasc. ntre factorii materiali i umani ai produciei trebuie s existe o compatibilitate i o corelaie, n privina volumului, structurii i calitii acestora.
Din aceast interdependen, fora de munc dobndete capacitatea de a crea un volum mai mare sau mai mic de bunuri economice, dobndete randament. Produsul muncii i efectul muncii pot s se suprapun, dar sunt situaii n care efectul muncii este mult mai cuprinztor n raport cu produsul muncii. De regul, la nivel microeconomic cele dou noiuni coincid, dar cu ct se nainteaz spre mezo i macro-economie, sfera efectelor muncii devanseaz sfera produselor mun-cii. Apar, astfel, pe lng produsele muncii (care sunt msurabile), efecte de ordin social, cultural, politic etc. n determinarea pro-ductivitii muncii se iau n considerare numai acele efecte care se pot msura. Noiunea de eficien a muncii cuprinde i efecte de or-din social, cultural, politic, etc, care sunt greu cuantificabile. Efec-tele muncii trebuie s fie utile din punct de vedere social, iar impli-caiile activitii desfurate i ale folosirii rezultatelor acesteia, s nu deterioreze mediul nconjurtor. Compatibilitatea dintre efectele economice utile i cele sociale, culturale i ecologice pozitive, devine condiia fundamental dintre creterea productivitii muncii i creterea eficienei muncii. Munca cheltuit are un caracter individual i social, ceea ce face ca i productivitatea muncii s aib acelai caracter. Produc-tivitatea muncii individuale reprezint randamentul cu care este utilizat factorul uman la nivelul fiecrui agent economic, n funcie de condiiile specifice de nzestrare tehnic, organizare, calificare i intensitate a muncii (gradul de concentrare a muncii, respectiv consumul de energie fizic i intelectual ntr-o unitate de timp). Productivitatea muncii sociale (naionale) exprim eficiena chel-tuirii totale de munc n procesul produciei de bunuri i servicii la nivelul economiei naionale. Ea reflect, pe de o parte, economisirea muncii n toate verigile produciei naionale, iar, pe de alt parte, condiiile sociale de producie n cadrul unei perioade de dezvoltare. Creterea productivitii muncii individuale st la baza sporirii productivitii muncii sociale. Pentru aceasta este nevoie ca productivitatea muncii individuale s creasc n majoritatea ntreprinderilor din economia naional, iar economiile de munc din unele ntreprinderi s nu fie urmate de risip de munc n alte ntreprinderi. Caracterul muncii determin principalele forme de manifes-tare ale productivitii muncii, care au la baz clasificarea dup urmtoarele criterii: 1) dup diviziunea muncii: a) productivitatea muncii unui lucrtor; b) productivitatea muncii dintr-o secie sau la nivelul ntreprinderii economice; c) productivitatea muncii unei ramuri; d) productivitatea muncii naionale; 2) dup criteriile de nzestrare tehnic, de organizare, calificare i intensitate a muncii a) productivitatea muncii individuale;
287
b) productivitatea muncii sociale (eficiena cu care este cheltuit munca n condiii medii de nzestrare tehnic, de organizare a produciei, de calificare i intensitate). Productivitatea muncii individuale se msoar fie prin cantitatea de produse sau servicii obinute n unitatea de timp, fie prin timpul consumat pentru obinerea unei uniti de produs sau serviciu, folosind relaiile: W = Q/L; W = L/Q, n care: W productivitatea muncii; Q cantitatea de pro-duse sau servicii obinute; L timpul cheltuit pentru obinerea lui Q. Exprimarea produciei (Q) se face n uniti naturale, naturalconvenionale i valorice, iar cheltuiala de munc se exprim n uniti de timp sau numr de salariai. Productivitatea muncii sociale nu se determin ca o medie a productivitii individuale, ci ca un raport ntre indicatorii macroeconomici (venitul naional VN, produsul intern brut PIB etc.) i populaia ocupat sau activ L, folosind relaiile: W = VN/L; W = PIB/L. Productivitatea medie a muncii (WLm) sau eficacitatea, rodnicia cu care este cheltuit o anumit cantitate de munc se msoar fie prin cantitatea de produse obinute (Q) ntr-o unitate de timp, fie prin cheltuiala de munc (L) pe unitate de produs. Cantitatea de munc utilizat (L) se exprim, dup caz, prin numr de salariai sau ore-munc. Deci: WLm = Q/L sau WLm = L/Q. Productivitatea marginal a muncii (WLmg) exprim eficiena ultimei uniti de munc implicat n activitatea economic i se determin ca raport ntre variaia absolut a produciei (Q) i variaia absolut a cantitii de munc (L), dup relaia: WLmg = Q/L. Productivitatea medie a capitalului (WKm) exprim randamen-tul mediu al capitalului utilizat i se calculeaz ca raport ntre rezultatele obinute ntr-o perioad de timp (Q) i capitalul tehnic utilizat (K), dup relaia: WKm = Q/K. Productivitatea marginal a capitalului (WKmg) exprim eficiena ultimei uniti din capitalul tehnic atras i utilizat n activitatea economic i se determin ca raport ntre variaia absolut a produciei (Q) i variaia absolut a capitalului tehnic utilizat (K), dup relaia: Q/K. Productivitatea medie a naturii (pmntului) (WPm) exprim eficiena medie a factorului de producie natural utilizat n activitatea economic i se calculeaz ca
raport ntre efectul util obinut (Q) i suprafaa de teren (P) utilizat pentru obinerea efectului util (produciei), dup relaia: WPm = Q/P. Productivitatea marginal a naturii (pmntului) (WPmg) exprim randamentul ultimei uniti de teren (m2, ha etc.) atras n activitatea economic i se determin ca raport ntre variaia absolut a produciei (Q), exprimat fizic sau valoric, i variaia absolut a suprafeei de teren (P), dup relaia: WPmg = Q/P. Productivitatea global medie a factorilor de producie (WGm) se calculeaz n expresie valoric, ca raport ntre efectul util obinut datorit aciunii tuturor factorilor de producie, dup relaia: WGm = Q/L+K+P. Productivitatea global marginal (WGmg) exprim eficiena ultimei uniti din toi factorii de producie utilizai n producie i se determin ca raport ntre variaia absolut a rezultatelor (Q) i variaia absolut agregat a tuturor factorilor (L+Q+P), dup relaia: WGmg = Q/L+Q+P. Pentru a cunoate care sunt activitile ce produc o valoare dat cu un minim de muncitori i concomitent cu un minim de capital, n scopul stabilirii prioritilor n dezvoltarea pe ramuri a unei economii naionale, economistul romn Mihail Manoilescu (1891-1950) a reunit formulele cu care a determinat separat productivitatea muncii (WLm = Q/L) i productivitatea capitalului (WKm = Q/K) ntr-una singur, fiindc ea d expresie numeric pentru modul de folosire a muncii i a capitalului de ctre industrie1. Astfel: W=
( Q L ) ( Q K ) = Q
LK ,
unde: Q producia net anual a unei ramuri de producie; L numrul de salariai; K capitalul investit. Determinrii productivitii factorilor de producie, prin metoda clasic, i se obiecteaz faptul c o producie creat prin aportul combinat al tuturor factorilor de producie se raporteaz, pe rnd, la fiecare factor de producie, ca i cum ar fi rezultatul acestuia, ceea ce evident nu corespunde realitii. Totodat, sunt posibile evoluii contradictorii ale productivitii unor factori n cazul substituirii lor. De pild, prin substituirea parial a muncii cu echipamente de producie la nivel tehnic superior, poate apare urmtoarea situaie: productivitatea muncii crete, dar productivitatea capi-talului fix (acesta exprimat prin pre) se micoreaz, ceea ce necesit o ana-liz suplimentar pentru luarea deciziei de substituire dintre factori.
Manoilescu, Mihail, Forele naionale productive i comerul exterior, Editura tiinific i Enciclopedic, Bucureti, 1986, p. 95. Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment 289
1
Pentru a depi aceste dezavantaje (limite), se utilizeaz una dintre metodele de calcul existente n economia modern, cea a funciilor de producie, unde, se apreciaz c cea mai bun legtur ntre rezultatele produciei i factorii de producie, n condiiile substituibilitii pariale ntre factori, este funcia de tip Coob-Douglas, formulat de economitii C. W. Coob i P. H. Douglas, dup care producia depinde de mrimea capitalului i de cantitatea de munc folosit, astfel: Q = AKL, n care: Q producia scontat; K capitalul utilizat; L munca folosit; A coeficientul de proporionalitate ntre munc i capital; coeficientul de elasticitate a produciei n raport cu munca, = (Q/Q)/(L/L); coeficientul de elasticitate a produciei n raport cu capitalul fix, = (Q/Q)/(K/K). Deci A, , sunt parametrii pozitivi care influeneaz factorii n felul lor specific. Pentru fundamentarea indicatorilor de exprimare a produc-tivitii factorilor de producie, se impune respectarea, cel puin, a urmtoarelor principii: a. luarea n considerare a efortului integral de factori, avansai, ocupai i consumai; b. reflectarea complexitii produciei pe diverse structuri ale economiei naionale, care se refer la urmtoarele: producia poate fi global, final i net (nou creat); ea poate fi exprimat n uniti fizice, natural-convenionale i valorice, fiecare avnd anumite limite; c. delimitarea n timp i spaiu att a produciei ct i a factorilor corespunztori; d. asigurarea comparabilitii indicatorilor care exprim producia i factorii de producie, acetia s aib acelai coninut social-economic, s fie utilizat aceeai metodologie de determinare, iar evaluarea s se fac n acelai sistem de preuri. Bibliografie selectiv Ciucur D., Gavril I., Popescu C. Economie manual universitar, Editura Economic, Bucureti, 1999. Manoilescu, Mihail, Forele naionale productive i comerul exterior, Editura tiinific i Enciclopedic, Bucureti, 1986, p. 95. Mecu Gh. .a. Economie de pia contemporan, vol. I, II i III, Editura Genicod, Bucureti, 2002
290
Corelaia dintre valoarea Produsului Intern Brut al Romniei i cea a principalilor factori de influen
Lector univ.dr. Ctlin DEATCU Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureti catalindeatcu@gmail.com Lector univ.dr. Florin LILEA Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureti florin.lilea@yahoo.fr Asistent univ. Zoica NICOLA Universitatea ARTIFEX din Bucureti zoicanicola@yahoo.com Abstract: In this paper, the authors analyze the main aspects regarding the use of the multiple regression model in the analysis of the Gross Domestic Product of Romania, during the period 1990 2010. In this context, there are used as explicative variables, the values of the final consumption, gross formation of capital, variation of inventories and net export. Following the research, we have revealed the fact that this kind of model is not only valid, but also indicated to be used in macroeconomic analyses, because the value of the free term (as image of the factors non-specified in the model) is a much reduced one than the values achieved through linear simple regression. Key words: Gross Domestic Product, evolution, estimator, multiple linear regression, validation JEL Classification: O11, E01
n cadrul cercetrilor anterioare, am analizat evoluia Produsului Intern Brut al rii noastre cu ajutorul regresiei liniare simple, utiliznd drept variabile explicative, pe rnd, consumul final, formarea brut de capital, variaia stocurilor i exportul net. Modelele obinute n urma acestor cercetri s-au dovedit a fi unele valide, dar care au ca principal neajuns valoarea foarte ridicat a termenului liber, ceea ce implic o influen semnificativ a factorilor ce nu au fost inclui n model. Pentru a elimina aceste neajunsuri, cercetarea poate fi continuat prin folosirea modelului de regresie multipl, n care Produsul Intern Brut joac rolul variabilei rezultative, iar consumul final, formarea brut de capital, variaia stocurilor i exportul net sunt utilizate drept variabile independente.
291
Pornind de la ecuaia ce permite determinarea valorii Produsului Intern Brut conform metodei cheltuielilor (PIB = CF + FBCF + VS + (E-I), vom transcrie ecuaia modelului de regresie multipl ce are ca variabile factoriale consumul final, formarea brut de capital fix, variaia de stoc i exportul net: Y = 1 + 2 CF+ 3 FBCF + 4 VS +5 EXN + n acest sens, am utilizat o serie de date referitoare la evoluia celor cinci variabile (una dependent i patru independente) n perioada 1990 2012: Anul PIB CF FBC VS EXN 1990 85,79 67,95 16,98 8,97 -8,11 1991 220,39 167,25 31,7 30,11 -8,67 1992 602,92 464,25 115,68 73,67 -50,68 1993 2.003,57 1.523,58 358,37 221,22 -99,6 1994 4.977,32 3.845,24 1.009,57 225,26 -102,75 1995 7.213,55 5.866,24 1.542,49 208,51 -403,69 1996 10.891,96 8.993,94 2.499,85 316,14 -917,97 1997 25.292,57 21.861,98 5.354,01 -136,87 -1.786,55 1998 37.379,82 33.746,86 6.791,99 -158,64 -3.000,39 1999 55.191,40 49.311,90 9.707,60 -1.322,40 -2.505,70 2000 80.948,60 69.587,40 15.245,20 444,6 -4.292,60 2001 117.957,80 100.731,70 24.171,40 2.014,80 -8.972,10 2002 152.017,00 127.118,80 32.366,50 1.079,60 -8.547,90 2003 197.427,60 168.818,70 42.496,60 873,6 -14.761,30 2004 247.368,00 211.054,60 53.850,30 4.701,10 -22.238,00 2005 288.954,60 251.038,10 68.526,60 -1.240,00 -29.370,10 2006 344.650,60 294.867,60 88.272,00 2.916,30 -41.405,30 -57.788,90 2007 416.006,80 344.937,00 125.645,30 3.213,40 -67.114,40 2008 514.700,00 420.917,50 160.896,90 -3.368,20 -30.274,90 2009 498.007,50 402.246,00 126.036,40 4695,5 2010 523.693,30 419.801,20 129.421,80 4476,8 -30.006,50 2011 556.708,40 436.485,00 144.558,20 5351,2 -29.686,00 2012 587.466,20 458.585,80 158.727,80 0 -29.847,40 Pe baza acestor informaii, cu ajutorul pachetului de programe informatice specializat Eviws am determinat parametrii modelului de regresie multipl, definind Produsul Intern Brut drept variabil dependent, iar celelalte patru variabile ca fiind variabile factoriale. De asemenea, n cadrul modelului am introdus termenul liber C.
Rezultatele obinute n urma acestei operaiuni se prezint astfel:
Figura 1 Estimarea parametrilor modelului de regresie multipl Pe baza rezultatelor obinute anterior, putem transcrie modelul econometric de regresie multipl sub urmtoarea form: Y = 110,8 + 0,99 CF + 1,01 FBCF + 0,74 VS + 0,96 EXN + De asemenea, pe baza informaiilor disponibile n tabelul de rezultate generat de ctre programul informatic Eviews este posibil formularea unor concluzii precum: Probabilitatea asociat modelului de regresie multipl este una foarte ridicat (99,99%), nivelul acesteia fiind superior celui nregistrat n cazul modelelor de regresie simpl analizate n prima parte a acestei prezentri. Gradul de risc aferent acestui model este nul, ceea ce ne permite s afirmm faptul c el poate fi utilizat cu succes n analizele macroeconomice. Dup cum se poate observa, toi cei patru factori considerai n cadrul modelului au o influen semnificativ asupra evoluiei produsului intern brut, ceea ce ne permite s afirmm faptul c ei trebuiesc privii cu acceai atenie n momentul elaborrii unor msuri i politici de stimulare a creterii PIB n ara noastr. Pe baza elementelor ce reies din modelul econometric ai crui parametrii au fost estimai anterior putem afirma faptul c principalele msuri ce pot fi adoptate pentru creterea valorii produsului intern brut n perioada urmtoare sunt: Stimularea consumului public i privat;
Creterea valorii formrii brute de capital fix prin facilitarea activitii investiionale: Echilibrarea balanei comerciale externe prin adoptarea unei politici coerente de stimulare a activitii de export Valoarea mult mai redus a termenului liber ne permite s afirmm c influena factorilor ce nu au fost inclui n model asupra evoluiei PIB este una relativ nesemnificativ, ceea ce ne face s concluzionm c aplicarea unui model de regresie multipl ofer rezultate net superioare analizelor unifactoriale efectuate n prima parte a acestei lucrri.
Bibliografie selectiva Anghelache C., (2008) Tratat de statistica teoretica si economica, Editura Economica, Bucuresti Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) Statistica pentru afaceri, Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti Gujarati, D. (2004) Basic Econometrics Fourth Edition, The McGraw Hill Companies, 2004 Deatcu, C (2009) Estimarea parametrilor unui model liniarde regresie cu ajutorul programelor informatice, Revista Romn de Statistic *** Institutul National de Statistica Anuarul Statistic al Romaniei, editiile 2010, 2011, 2012
294
Utilizarea comparat a modelelor CAPM i APT n analizele bursiere

Dr. Florin PIELEANU Academia de Studii Economice, Bucureti Asist.univ.drd. Diana COCONOIU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureti / Universitatea Cretin Dimitrie Cantemir Abstract This paper describes the use of CAPM and APT models in stock exchange analysis. The comparative study of the models reveals their advantages and disadvantages. The authors present the mathematical base of the models, the dataset used for the practical approach and validate the conclusions in an elegant manner. Key words: models, analysis, residual, variance, profitability JEL Classification: G11, G14
Modelele CAPM i APT, dei ridic unele semne de ntrebare privind gradul de ncredere, sunt utilizate n majoritatea analizelor pentru piaa bursier. Criteriile sunt studiul comparat privind utilizarea celor dou metode au la baz analiza rezidual, ecuaia Davidson-MacKinnon i indicatorul "posterior odds ratio" (POR), criterii des utilizate n studiile comparative anterioare ale celor dou modele. Metodologia de calcul, rezultatele obinute i interpretrile lor vor fi detaliate pentru fiecare criteriu n parte. nc din anul 1983, Chen a propus o form de comparaie direct a modelelor CAPM i APT, folosind ecuaiile clasice: - pentru modelul APT i: - pentru modelul CAPM Urmtorul pas este formularea a dou ecuaii de regresie, respectiv o regresie a variabilei reziduale a CAPM(i) relativ la factor loadings" ai APT(bik), iar apoi o regresie a variabilei reziduale a APT(i) cu coeficienii i ai CAPM. Rezultatele arat c APT-ul poate explica n mod statistic o parte semnificativ din varianta rezidual a CAPM, dar nu i reciproc, pe cnd CAPM nu poate explica varianta rezidual a APT. Acest lucru este o dovad destul de solid
295
n sprijinul faptului c APT este un model mai adecvat pentru explicarea variaiilor n rentabilitatea activelor. Logica acestui test rezid n faptul c dac modelul CAPM este corect specificat, atunci rentabilitatea ateptat pentru orice activ "i" va fi explicat prin coeficientul i, iar variabila i va fi numai un "zgomot alb" de medie nul i dispersie constant. Dac anticiprile de pe pia sunt raionale (condiie de baz a modelului), randamentul ce va fi realizat poate fi exprimat astfel: Ri = Ei + Vi Cu alte cuvinte, rentabilitatea este dat de rentabilitatea ateptat n mod raional cu un termen de eroare. Dac CAPM este corect specificat, rentabilitatea poate fi dat i de relaia: unde Ei(CAPM) este rentabilitatea ateptat furnizat de model. Aceast apreciere conduce la relaia: sau: Validarea modelului presupune Ei = Ei(CAPM), n timp ce i = Vi este zgomot alb, care nu trebuie s fie dovedit prin alte modele, deoarece dac s-ar proceda astfel, nseamn c Ei conine informaii necuprinse n Ej(CAPM) iar CAPM devine incorect specificat. Testarea logic n scopul determinrii performanei superioare dintre modelul CAPM i APT este cea expus mai sus, adic regresia variabilelor reziduale ale CAPM (i) asupra "factor loadings" ai APT (bik) i viceversa, regresarea variabilelor reziduale ale APT (i) asupra coeficienilor i ai CAPM. Regresia a doua are un rol opus. n testarea efectuat de Chen, modelul APT a fost capabil s exprime semnificativ statistic, numai variana rezidual a CAPM. Pentru a testa cele susinute anterior n scopul unei comparaii directe ntre CAPM i APT am considerat unele date din Romnia. n acest scenariu avem ecuaiile: pentru APT i: (CAPM) Rezultatele pentru sub-perioada 2007-2012 se prezint astfel: (variabile reziduale CAPM/factor loadings APT) Coefficients tStat P-value 0 0,9077 0,5908 0,5424 * 1 -4,4105 -2,2101 0,0300
2 3* 4 5
Coefficients -2,2403 6,7100 -4,2704 4,6103
tStat -0,8600 3,0502 -1,8106 1,7218
P-value 0,3914 0,0032 0,0728 0,0892
Dup efectuarea calculelor obinem coeficienii CAPM, care se prezint n tabelul urmtor pentru 0 i 1: Coefficients tStat P-value 0 -2,0672 -2,0715 0,0414 1* 2,4305 2,4612 0,0157 Constatm c reziduurile CAPM sunt asimilate de factorii unu i trei ai APT, care sunt semnificativi din punct de vedere statistic, iar reziduurile APT sunt asimilate de 1* al CAPM, care de asemenea este semnificativ. Pentru a decide care model este superior, recurgem la valorile R-square: 0,3805 pentru prima (APT explic 38,05% din varianta neexplicat de CAPM) i 0,0957 pentru a doua(CAPM explic 9,57% din varianta neexplicat de APT). Constatm c APT este un model mai potrivit pentru a determina randamentele aciunilor. Pentru sub-perioada 2010-202 se obin datele: Coefficients tStat P-value 0 1,7302 1,7092 0,0831 1* 2 3* 4 5 -3,4137 -1,0094 0,2546 -0,2704 -1,3105 -2,8161 -0,7545 0,2005 -0,1786 -0,9643 0,0062 0,4456 0,8391 0,8391 0,3355
Mai jos redm, datele rezultate din conparaia valorilor reziduale APT i a coeficienilor pentru CAPM (variabile reziduale APT/coeficieni P CAPM) Coefficients tStat P-value 0 -1,2985 -2,0826 0,0406 1* 1,4215 2,3446 0,0218
Reziduurile CAPM sunt nglobate n factorul 1 al APT, iar reziduurile APT sunt incluse n factorul CAPM. Indicatorul "R-square" are valoarea de 0,1508
pentru prima regresie(echivalent cu faptul c APT explic 15,08% din varianta neexplicat de CAPM) i 0,0837 pentru a doua(CAPM explic 8,37% din varianta neexplicat de APT). i n cazul acestui sub-interval APT pare un model mai performant. Dac lum n consideraie ntreaga perioad de timp, reunind cele dou subpuncte, obinem datele: Coefficients 2,0130 -4,3610 2,2847 2,4030 1,7482 -3,3791 Coefficients -2,0674 2,2611 tStat 2,6106 -4,8965 -1,7947 2,4311 1,3212 -3,0151 tStat -3,5078 3,8169 P-value 0,0112 0,001 0,0779 0,0179 0,1921 0,0038 P-value 0,0007 0,0003
0 1* 2 3* 4 5
0 1*
Reziduurile CAPM sunt capturate n factorii 1,3 i 5 ai APT, iar reziduurile APT sunt capturate n factorul CAPM. Indicatorul "R-square" are valoarea de 0,5138 pentru prima regresie(echivalent cu faptul c APT explic 51,32% din varianta neexplicat de CAPM) i 0,2007 pentru a doua (CAPM explic 20,05% din varianta neexplicat de APT). Ambele modele se comport mai bine pe perioad de timp luat n ansamblu, n comparaie cu sub-perioadele egale, i din nou APT este mai relevant dect CAPM. Modelul APT este mai rezonabil n explicarea variaiilor randamentelor aciunilor att pe sub-perioade, ct i pe intervalul total. Ecuaia Davidson-MacKinnon este o metod de comparaie, a fost sugerat de economitii Davidson i MacKinnon[1981]. Primul test utiliznd aceast ecuaie a fost realizat de Chen. Procedura se desfoar astfel: RAPT i RCAPM fiind rentabilitile prezise de modelele APT, respectiv CAPM, se efectueaz o regresie multipl asupra urmtoarei relaii: , unde msoar efectivitatea APT, iar (1- ) pe cea a CAPM. Dac modelul CAPM este mai corect dect APT, atunci (1- ) va avea o valoare estimat mai apropiat statistic de 1, iar , una mai apropiat de 0 i viceversa: dac modelul APT este mai corect dect CAPM, atunci (1- ) va avea o valoare estimat mai apropiat statistic
de 0, iar , una mai apropiat de 1. Studiul lui Chen a gsit ca valabil varianta secund, iar analiza va fi efectuat i pentru situaia de fa. Sub-perioada 2005-2007 prezint rentabilitile prezise de cele 2 modele i prezentate n anexa VII. 1., iar rezultatele regresiei sunt:
Se poate vedea clar din tabel c valoarea estimat pentru este mult mai apropiat de 1, iar cea a lui (l- ) de 0. Astfel, APT pare modelul mai corect specificat dup criteriul ecuaiei Davidson-MacKinnon, pentru primul sub-interval. Pentru 2008-2010, avem rentabilitile prezise de cele 2 modele si prezentate n anexa VII.2., cu urmtoarele estimri prin regresie:
Din nou APT reiese ca fiind modelul mai bun n comparaie cu CAPM, fiindc msura efectivitii sale, adic , are o valoare foarte apropiat de 1, n timp ce cea a CAPM, adic (1- ), este mai apropiat de 0. Pentru perioada de timp cumulat, 2005-2010, se nregistreaz valorile de rentabiliti prezise, iar regresia ofer urmtoarele estimri pentru cei 2 indicatori:
Dei se poate observa c acum valorile sunt ceva mai apropiate, indicatorul mai apropiat de 1 continu s fie cel pentru APT, , n timp ce cel pentru CAPM, (1 - ), dei a crescut, continu s fie mai apropiat de 0, dovedind c i n situaia intervalului total de timp primul model se dovedete a fi ceva mai potrivit dect cel secund din punctul de vedere al ecuaiei Davidson-MacKinnon. Rezultatele analizei de fat sunt n concordant cu cele ale lui Chen, care a obinut aceleai concluzii n studiul su. De asemenea, Groenewold i Fraser[1997],
Cagnetti[2002], Theriou, Aggelidis i Maditinos[2007] i Yuen[1985] pun n eviden concluzii asemntoare. C. Posterior odds ratio Este un indicator ceva mai formal dect cel oferit de ecuaia DavidsonMacKinnon, dar a fost folosit destul de frecvent n testri i are fundamente teoretice solide, mai ales din punct de vedere statistic. Zellner[ 1979] furnizeaz formula de calcul pentru acest indicator. n general, aceasta ia urmtoarea form: POR = (SSEA/SSEB)N/2 * N(kA - kB)/2 unde: SSEA = indicatorul "error sum of squares" pentru modelul A; SSEB = indicatorul "error sum of squares" pentru modelul B; N = numrul de observaii luate n calcul pentru cele 2 modele; kA = numrul de variabile independende ale modelului A; kB = numrul de variabile independende ale modelului B; Dac formula de mai sus furnizeaz un rezultat subunitar (P0R<1), atunci modelul A este mai performant dect modelul B i viceversa, un rezultat supraunitar (POR>l) va indica o performan superioar din partea modelului B. In cazul studiului de fa, modelul A este reprezentat de APT, iar modelul B de CAPM. Formula de calcul pentru indicatorul "error sum of squares" este:
adic suma ptratelor diferenelor dintre rentabilitile reale i rentabilitile estimate prin cele 2 modele avute n vedere. Rezultatele obinute pentru primul subinterval de lucru arat astfel: SSEA = 1110,6909 i SSEB = 1633,8994, de unde rezult: POR2005-2007 = 0,00478 Se observ c rezultatul este subunitar i, dup cum spuneam, interpretarea n aceast situaie este c modelul A este mai performant dect modelul B, adic n cazul de fa, modelul APT este mai performant dect modelul CAPM. Subintervalul secund de lucru furnizeaz urmtoarele valori: SSEA = 311,3083 i SSEB = 356,1947, de unde rezult: POR2008-2010= 40,6239 De aceast dat, rezultatul este supraunitar, punnd n eviden o superioritate a modelului B fat de modelul A, adic a CAPM fat de APT. n sfrit, lund n calcul perioada de timp n ansamblu, se obin urmtoarele valori pentru indicatori: SSEA = 234,8943 i SSEB = 327,3897, de unde rezult: POR2005-2010 = 0,0333
Rezultatul subunitar ne indic c modelul A, adic APT, este mai potrivit dect modelul B, adic CAPM, pentru intervalul total de timp. Rezultatele obinute aici sunt nc o dat n concordan cu cele ale majoritii studiilor anterioare (printre care Cagnetti[2002] ; Theriou, Aggelidis i Maditinos[2007] i altele), care de asemenea au relevat superioritatea APT n cele mai multe dintre cazuri. Concluzii Sumarul comparaiilor dintre cele 2 modele, innd cont de fiecare criteriu luat n calcul i punnd n eviden modelul mai potrivit n explicarea rentabilitilor, este cuprins n urmtorul tabel: Analiza rezidual Ecuaia DavidsonPosterior odds MacKinnon ratio Subinterval 20052007 Subinterval 20082010 Interval total 20052010 APT APT APT APT APT APT APT CAPM APT
Cu o singur excepie, dat de subperioada 2008-2010 dup criteriul comparativ dat de "Posterior odds ratio", APT a reieit din comparaie direct ca fiind capabil s explice randamentele activelor ntr-o msur oarecum mai mare dect CAPM pentru piaa din Romnia pe perioada de timp studiat, fapt oarecum logic i normal, din moment ce permite ca aceste randamente s fie influenate i s depind de un numr mai mare de factori dect cel unic, portofoliul pieei, oferit de CAPM. Bibliografie selectiv Chen, N.F.(1983) - "Some empirica/ tests of the theory ofarbitrage pricing Journal of Finance, 1393-1414 Cagnetti, A.(2002) - "CAPM and APT in the Italian Stock Market: an empirica! study", Management School and Economics, University of Edinburgh Theriou, N.; Aggelidis, V.; Maditinos, D.(2007) - "Testing the relation between risk and returns using CAPM and APT: the case ofAthens stock exchange ", Paper from TEI of Kavala, School of Business and Economics
301

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement First Quarter 2013

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement First Quarter 2013

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Institutul Naional de Statistic

Societatea Romn de Statistic

REVISTA ROMN DE STATISTIC - SUPLIMENT ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW - SUPPLEMENT -

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Non-linear Regression used in Economic Analysis

Using the substitutions

y i = k = log y i , xi = log xi a = log i ,the

- if b > 0, the non-linear function is up warding and lim y i ( x i ) = ;

- when the differential of

2 yi = ab(b 1)xib 2 , is xi2

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

- Irrespectively of the sign of the parameter b, for the reciprocal model

1 = minimum, we get the linear b Out of the condition yi a xi i n n 1 = +b yi na i =1 x i i =1 n system of equations: n 1 n 1 y + b 2 = i a i =1 x i i =1 x i i =1 x i

We solve the linear system of equations having the unknown quantities a

b , and the series of the xi

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

The regression parabolic model which is defined by the

one, resulting the following linear system of equations:

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

dyt = 1 + 2 2 xt + 3 3 xt2 dxt

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

; the labor productivity, y t =

where: Yt - the variable quantifying the outputs from the system;

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Theoretical and Methodological Considerations on the Public Offers

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Inflation Analysis

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Non-parametrical Estimation of the Regression used in Economic Analyses

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

since g(z) is defined only if f m arg ( z ) > 0 . The parameter of interest

, is lower than the cost

z j . The above property must be true for

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

This condition is seldom satisfied. We can replace

at . Indeed, we The main asymptotic result is the convergence rate n

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Sales Force Motivation and Compensation

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

New Global Financial Regulatory Framework

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Gross Domestic Product/inhabitant and Occupation of the Labor Force

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Figure 1 Evolution of employment rate

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim. I/2013 - Supliment

Revista Romn de Statistic Trim I/2013- Supliment

z , which we shall define through L2( ~ z ). We know of the linear functions of ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ L ( z ) L ( z ).

pio qit p jo q jt