Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 23, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 23, 2013

Highlights
US Existing Home Sales increased to 4.97 million in the last month. UKs CBI Industrial Order Expectations was at -20-mark in May. European Current Account was at surplus of 25.9 bn Euros in March. UKs Retail Sales declined by 1.3 percent in the month of April. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from China coupled with expectations that US Federal Reserve may end its bond buying program as soon as starting from June. US Existing Home Sales increased to 4.97 million in April as against a rise of 4.94 million in March. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.8 points to 49.6-mark in May as against a rise of 50.4-level in April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 6094.5 20062.2 15307.17 1655.4 17545.5 1993.8 58497.8 15627.3 94.28 1367.60 2245.80 7442.75 102.09 Prev. day -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.6 -2.0 -1.2 0.1 1.1 0.0

as on May 22, 2013 WoW -0.9 -0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.3 1.1 6.5 -0.1 0.0 -2.1 -0.8 3.4 -2.3 MoM 4.5 4.7 4.1 5.9 5.4 3.9 6.4 12.2 0.7 -3.9 -7.0 -5.1 -0.4 YoY 24.2 9.7 22.4 25.7 30.4 1.6 7.1 79.0 2.9 -14.1 -20.3 -3.8 0.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained by 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, less than expected rise in the US existing home sales data coupled with expectations that US Federal Reserve will end its bond buying program soon exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak US equities markets also acted as negative factor for the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 84.51 and closed at 84.46 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) 84.46 55.65 55.57 55.57 Prev. day 0.6 -0.4 0.09 0.10 WoW 0.6 -1.6 1.16 1.15

as on May 22, 2013 MoM 1.7 -2.6 2.70 2.69 YoY 6.3 -0.6 0.13 0.14

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of increase in dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak domestic and global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 55.66 and closed at 55.65 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.16,567.80 crores ($3,064.91 million) as on 22nd May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.77,604.20 crores ($14,375.30 million) till 22nd May 2013.

US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers will exert downside pressure on the currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for May 23, 2013 Support 55.40/55.20 Resistance 55.80/56.00

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 23, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in DX coupled with mixed global market sentiments. Further, rise in worries over economic growth of the country kept currency under pressure. European Current Account was at a surplus of 25.9 billion Euros in March as against a surplus of 14.6 billion Euros a month ago. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2831 and closed at 1.2856 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of strength in dollar index coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, expectation of weak economic data from Euro Zone may keep currency under pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.6/71.3 72/72.2 valid for May 23, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2856 71.49 71.8 Prev. day -0.4 -0.1 0.70

as on May 22, 2013 WoW -0.2 -1.4 1.62 MoM -1.2 -1.5 1.75 YoY 1.4 -5.4 1.47

71.8

0.70

1.63

1.76

1.49

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.71 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weak economic data from the country coupled with strength in DX. Further, mixed global market sentiments added downside pressure on the currency. UKs Retail Sales declined by 1.3 percent in April as against a previous fall of 0.6 percent in March. Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 8 billion Pounds in April from earlier 12.6 billion Pounds in March. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations was at -20-mark in May as compared to earlier fall of 25-level in April. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5018 and closed at 1.5047 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, decline in retail sales may exert downside pressure. However, expectation of favorable economic data from the country may cushion sharp fall in sterling pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 23, 2013 Support 83.7/83.5 Resistance 84.1/84.3 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5047 83.68 83.89 Prev. day -0.71 -0.400 -0.21

Source: Telequote

as on May 22, 2013

WoW -1.2 0.24 0.36

MoM -1.4 1.08 1.76

YoY -4.5 -4.14 -4.12

83.89

-0.19

0.38

1.74

-4.11

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| May 23, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of weak global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 103.73 and closed at 103.15 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 23, 2013 Support 53.95/53.8 Resistance 54.25/54.4 Last 103.15 0.5394 54.05 54.04 Prev day 0.7 -0.28 -0.03 -0.04 as on May 22, 2013 WoW 0.9 0.67 0.92 0.92 MoM 3.7 -1.17 -0.46 -0.49 YoY 29.0 -22.07 -22.25 -22.25

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 23, 2013

Indicator HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Second Estimate GDP q/q Prelim Business Investment q/q FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Country China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:35pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Actual 49.6 Forecast 50.5 44.8 44.7 48.6 50.2 47.1 47.4 0.3% 1.7% 347K 51.6 429K Previous 50.4 44.4 44.3 48.1 49.6 46.7 47.0 0.3% -0.8% 360K 52.1 417K Impact High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High

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