Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | May 22, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | May 22, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

European Current Account was at a surplus of 25.9b Euros in March UKs Retail Sales declined by 1.3 percent in April. European markets are trading lower as the investors are looking forward to EU Economic Summit outcome and US Federal Reserves Bernanke speech. Asian markets ended on negative note. US stock futures are trading green. European Current Account was at a surplus of 25.9 billion Euros in March as against a surplus of 14.6 billion Euros a month ago. UKs Retail Sales declined by 1.3 percent in April as against a previous fall of 0.6 percent in March. Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 8 billion Pounds in April from earlier 12.6 billion Pounds in March. Spot gold prices increased by 0.77 percent today on the back of weakness Dollar Index. Further, expectations that US Federal Reserves may start trimming bound buying purchasing programme got faded after the US Federal Reserves officials statements, which supported prices to trade in green. However, continuous decline in SPDR gold trust holdings capped sharp rise in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported prices to trade positive. Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices coupled with upside in the base metal packs, Spot silver prices increased by 0.94 percent today. Further, weakness in DX supported prices to trade in green. However, mixed global market sentiments coupled with weak economic data from UK capped sharp gains in the prices. The base metals pack traded on a positive note on the back of weakness in DX. Further, Indications that US Federal Reserves would continue with its bond buying programme supported prices to trade in green. Additionally, expectations of rise in US Existing Home sales acted as a positive factor for the prices. However, sharp rallies was capped on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased by 2.01 percent today on the back of weakness in DX coupled with expectations of rise in US Existing Home sales. Further, Indications that US Federal Reserves would continue wit h its bond buying programme supported prices. However, mixed global market sentiments along with rise in LME inventories by 0.4 percent capped sharp upside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices fell by -0.60 percent today on the back of unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories from API along with mixed global market sentiments. However, expectation of favorable economic data from US coupled with expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department cushioned sharp fall in the prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is th expected to fall by 0.8 million barrels for the week ending on 17 May 2013.

as at 4.30 pm 22 May 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6127.05 20150.69 15440.69 1991.76 17472.08

6147.60 20220.35 15706.63 1998.70 17546.34

6074.45 20000.86 15432.64 1987.23 17386.13

6094.50 20062.24 15627.26 1993.83 17386.13

-0.32 -0.25 1.60 0.64 0.04

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 22 May 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.87 1.2904 55.408

83.99 1.2955 55.6375

83.76 1.2902 55.30

83.965 1.2933 55.58

-0.01 0.22 0.29

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 22 May 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold June13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex June 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil May 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - May13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - May13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX May13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX May13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1376.09 1387.20 26174.00 22.38 28.23 43202 95.90 103.52 5338 7369.75 410.50 1850.00 101.35 2034 112.70 15049 832.40 1852.00 101.80

1389.70 1387.20 26285.0 22.70 22.61 43579 95.97 103.71 5339 7514.00 417.50 1881.00 102.80 2064 114.30 15256 844.30 1875.00 102.70

1371.59 1387.20 26062.0 22.33 22.345 43104 95.34 102.92 5313 7364.25 410.50 1849.50 101.40 2032 112.70 15046 831.50 1852.00 101.80

1386.06 1387.20 26239.00 22.59 22.595 43472 95.58 103.25 5329 7509.75 416.95 1879.50 102.70 2064 114.20 15253 844.30 1873.25 102.45

0.77 0.68 0.49 0.94 0.68 0.70 -0.60 -0.64 -0.34 2.01 1.77 1.59 1.53 1.19 1.51 1.51 1.71 0.94 0.94

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | May 22, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal, base metal and crude oil prices to trade on the positive note on the back of weakness in DX. Further, Indications that US Federal Reserves would continue with its bond buying programme may support prices to trade in green. Additionally, expectations of rise in US Existing Home sales may act as a positive factor for the prices. However, mixed global market sentiments may cap sharp upside in the prices. Investors will keep an eye on EU Economic Summit outcome along with US Federal chairman Bernanke testimony. Also, expectation of decline in US crude oil inventories from EIA will support an upside in the crude oil prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 22 May 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil May13 Nymex Crude Oil June13 Natural Gas May13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc May13 Lead May13 Aluminum May13 Nickel May13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25950 1370 42700 22.20 5660 5280 94.8 227 7310 409 101.5 112.5 100.9 827 Support 1 26100 1377 43100 22.4 5700 5310 95.3 230.5 7380 415 102.5 113.5 101.75 838 CMP 26273 1387 43514 22.63 5716 5331 95.61 233.4 7501 419.5 103.25 114.4 102.85 845.3 Resistance1 26400 1394 43800 22.80 5791 5365 96.3 236 7530 421 104 115 103.2 852 Resistance 2 26500 1400 44200 23 5820 5400 96.9 238.8 7570 423 104.8 115.8 103.9 858

Important Events for Today

Indicator Trade Balance Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Press Conference Current Account MPC Meeting Minutes Retail Sales m/m Public Sector Net Borrowing German 10-y Bond Auction EU Economic Summit CBI Industrial Order Expectations MPC Member Bean Speaks Existing Home Sales Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes Country Japan Japan Japan Europe UK UK UK Europe Europe UK UK US US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am Tentative Tentative 1:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:03pm All Day 3:30pm 4:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm Actual -0.76T 25.9B -1.3% 8.0B 1.41/1.6 -20 Forecast -0.61T 14.2B 0-0-9 0.0% 7.6B -17 4.99M -0.8M Previous -0.92T 16.3B 0-0-9 -0.7% 16.7B 1.28/1.6 -25 4.92M -0.6M Impact Medium High High Medium High High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium High