Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | May 23, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | May 23, 2013 News and Analysis German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 49-level in May. European Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 47.8-mark in May. UKs Second Estimate GDP remained unchanged at 0.3 percent. European markets are trading lower as the US Federal Reserve signaled that it may start trimming bond buying programme if US economy improves. Further, weak economic data from China also acted as a negative factor. Asian markets ended on negative note. US stock futures are trading in red. German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 49-level in May from earlier rise of 48.1-mark in April. European Flash Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.1 points to 47.8-mark in May with respect to rise of 46.7-level a month ago. UKs Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in the Q1 of 2013. Spot gold prices increased by 1.58 percent today on the back of weak Dollar Index. Further, weak stock markets increased the demand for precious metal as protection of wealth. However, continuous decline in SPDR gold trust holdings capped sharp rise in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported prices to trade positive. Taking cues from rise in spot gold prices coupled with weakness in DX, Spot silver prices increased by 1.44 percent today. However, weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavourable economic data from China and Euro Zone capped sharp upside in the prices. The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of decline in Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI coupled with weak global market sentiments. Further, US Federal Reserve signaled that it may start trimming bond buying programme if US economy improves kept prices under pressure. Additionally, Euro Zone manufacturing PMI remained below the benchmark level which increased the worries over demand for industrial metal. Copper, the leader of the base metals group decreased by 1.60 percent today on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavourable economic data from China and Euro Zone. Further, expectation of decline in US Manufacturing PMI kept prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX cushioned sharp downside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices fell by 0.71 percent today on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavourable economic data from China and Euro Zone. Further, expectation of decline in US manufacturing PMI kept prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX along with expectation of decline in US unemployment claims cushioned sharp fall in the prices. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to th increase by 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 17 May 2013.

International Commodities

Performance during the day

Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 23 May 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6050.40 19971.37 15739.98 1985.91 17127.61

6081.45 20027.56 15942.60 1991.35 17223.60

5955.70 19634.79 14483.98 1969.19 17013.92

5967.05 19674.33 14483.98 1969.19 17013.92

-2.09 -1.93 -7.32 -1.24 -2.42

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 23 May 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

84.44 1.2856 55.60

84.60 1.2904 56.01

83.845 1.282 55.585

84.005 1.2886 55.62

-0.54 0.23 0.05

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 23 May 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold June13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex June 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil May 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - May13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - May13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX May13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX May13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1368.70 1380.60 26020.00 22.19 28.23 43002 94.18 102.25 5290 7424.75 416.40 1870.25 103.05 2051 114.00 15124 841.00 1872.50 103.00

1395.46 1380.60 26395.0 22.60 22.245 43588 94.18 102.40 5290 7431.50 416.40 1870.25 103.10 2051 114.00 15125 841.00 1874.00 103.00

1356.24 1380.60 26020.0 21.94 22.035 42733 92.67 101.06 5191 7250.00 407.10 1841.00 101.70 2005 112.10 14840 828.30 1853.50 102.20

1390.21 1380.60 26340.00 22.51 22.245 43430 93.61 101.98 5223 7324.00 409.10 1865.00 102.50 2036 112.95 14913 830.90 1865.25 102.50

1.58 0.95 1.45 1.44 -0.95 0.47 -0.71 -0.60 -1.40 -1.60 -1.86 -0.40 -0.73 -1.12 -1.22 -1.76 -1.59 -0.73 -0.82

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | May 23, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal to trade on the positive note on the back of weakness in DX. Further, weak stock markets may increase demand for precious metal as protection of wealth. However, weak economic data from China and Europe may cap sharp upside in the prices. We expect base metals and crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of decline in China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI coupled with rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiment. Further, unfavourable economic data from Euro Zone along with expectation of decline in US Manufacturing PMI may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, US Federal Reserve signaled that it may start trimming bond buying programme if US economy improves may keep prices under pressure. However, weakness in DX and expectation of favourable Unemployment claims data may cushion sharp downside in the prices. Technical Outook for evening session 23 May 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)
Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil May13 Nymex Crude Oil June13 Natural Gas May13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc May13 Lead May13 Aluminum May13 Nickel May13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25861 1354 42383 21.76 5624 5154 92.4 228.6 7175 403 100.6 110.9 101.1 818 Support 1 26160 1377 42903 22.16 5650 5174 92.75 231 7260 406 101.65 111.9 101.9 825.3 CMP 26274 1389 43230 22.47 5675 5220 93.55 232.2 7326 408.75 102.35 112.8 102.35 828.3 Resistance1 26417 1400 43685 22.82 5720 5283 94.7 235.6 7444 415.9 103.25 114 103.2 842 Resistance 2 26612 1415 44309 23.3 5752 5327 95.5 237.8 7530 421.3 103.95 115 104 851

Important Events for Today

Indicator HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Second Estimate GDP q/q Prelim Business Investment q/q FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Country China Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe Europe UK UK US US US US Time (IST) 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:35pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm Actual 49.6 45.5 44.3 49.0 49.8 47.8 47.5 0.3% -0.4% Forecast 50.5 44.8 44.7 48.6 50.2 47.1 47.4 0.3% 1.7% 347K 51.6 429K Previous 50.4 44.4 44.3 48.1 49.6 46.7 47.0 0.3% -0.8% 360K 52.1 417K Impact High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium High