Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 27, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 27, 2013

Highlights
US Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.3 percent in April. German Ifo Business Climate gained to 105.7-mark mark in current month. UKs BBA Mortgage Approvals rose by 32,200 in the last month. US Durable Goods Orders improved by 3.3 percent in month of April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA 5983.6 19704.3 15303.1 1649.6 16896.8 1973.5 58497.8 14612.5 94.15 1386.80 22.48 7283.25 102.09 Prev. day 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.1 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.0

as on May 24, 2013 WoW -3.3 -2.9 -0.3 -1.1 -4.0 6.0 -0.1 -1.1 1.6 0.6 -0.4 -2.6 MoM 1.9 2.2 3.3 4.5 -0.2 1.1 6.6 5.4 1.2 -5.5 -6.8 -7.2 -0.5 YoY 21.6 7.7 22.1 24.9 28.9 1.0 7.4 70.6 4.7 -12.0 -20.1 -3.7 0.3

US Core Durable Goods Orders increased by 1.3 percent in April as against inst a decline of 1.5 percent in March. Durable Goods Orders rose by 3.3 percent in last month from fall of 6.9 percent a month ago.

S&P FTSE KOSPI

US Dollar Index
BOVESPA

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.7 percent in the last week on the back of favorable jobless claims, new homes sales and other economic data from the US and Euro Zone. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk k aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, expectations that US Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program coupled with weak US equities markets also prevented sharp fall in t the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 83.50 and closed at 83.76 on Friday.

NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee depreciated by 1.7 percent. The currency depreciated on account of expectations that US Federal Reserve may reduce its bond buying uying program coupled with increase in dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers. Additionally, weak domestic and global market sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside was cushioned as exporters took advant advantage of the sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee and sold few dollars along with weakness in the DX. The currency touched a low of 56.01 in the last week and closed at 55.81 against dollar on Friday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1 Rs.18,517.80 crores th ($3,415.63 million) as on 24 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.79,554.20 crores ($14,726.0 million) till 24 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of dollar demand from gold and crude oil importers coupled with strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments will also exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside will be capped as a result of selling of dollars by expor exporters.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.76 55.81 55.71 55.71 Prev. day -0.1 -0.2 0.12 0.13 WoW -0.7 -1.7 1.35 1.36

as on May 24, 2013 MoM 1.4 -2.6 2.45 2.46 YoY 5.4 -0.5 -0.02 -0.01

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for May 27, 2013 Support 55.55/55.35 Resistance 55.90/56.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 27, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week on the back of favorable manufacturing and services economic data from the region. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a resul result of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. GfK German Consumer Climate increased by 0.3 points to 6.5 6.5-mark in May as against a rise of 6.2-level level in April. German Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the Q1 of 2013. German Ifo Business Climate increased by 1.3 points to 105.7 105.7-mark in May from earlier rise of 104.4-level level in April. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.2998 and closed at 1.2929 against dollar on Friday Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.95/71.80 72.35/72.50 valid for May 27, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2929 72.09 72.2 Prev. day 0.0 0.0 0.76

as on May 24, 2013 WoW 0.7 -1.9 2.05 MoM -0.7 -1.7 2.19 YoY 3.1 -6.2 3.07

72.2

0.74

2.04

2.20

3.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on May 24, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. Additionally, weak global market sentiments also added downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in the DX prevented shar sharp fall in the Sterling Pound. UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 32,200 in April as against a rise of 31,400 a month ago. The Sterling Pound touched a low of 1.5012 in the last week and closed at 1.5125 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in DX will exert more downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 27, 2013 Support 84.0/83.80 Resistance 84.50/84.70 $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Last 1.5125 84.409 84.23

Prev. day 0.12 0.387 0.43

WoW -0.3 1.38 0.52

MoM -2.3 1.92 1.57

YoY -3.5 -3.14 -3.59

84.25

0.48

0.54

1.58

-3.56

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| May 27, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 1.9 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, , unfavorable economic data from the country capped sharp upside in n the currency. The Yen touched a weekly high of 100.68 and closed at 101.27 against dollar on Friday. Outlook day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from For the intra-day, rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 27, 2013 Support 54.85/54.70 Resistance 55.20/55.40 Last 101.27 0.551 55.02 55.00 Prev day -0.7 1.29 0.53 0.49 as on May 24, 2013 WoW -1.9 3.59 2.40 2.33 MoM 3.3 1.01 -0.19 -0.18 YoY 27.3 -21.12 -21.59 -21.59

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 27, 2013

Indicator Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Bank Holiday Bank Holiday Country Japan UK US Time (IST) 5:20am All Day All Day Actual Forecast Previous Impact Medium -

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