Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

Highlights
US Dollar Index (DX) fell marginally in yesterdays trading session. Japans Corporate Services Price Index declined by 0.4 percent in April. Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 in yesterdays trade. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations of slow economic growth from China coupled with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang statement that economy faces huge challenges. Further, unfavorable corporate goods index from Japan also acted as a negative factor for the markets.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI 6083.2 20030.8 15303.1 1649.6 17159.2 1980.0 58497.8 14142.7 94.15 1386.80 22.48 7283.25 102.09 Prev. day 1.7 1.7 0.1 -0.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 -3.2 -0.1 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.0

as on May 27, 2013 WoW -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -1.1 -2.0 -0.1 5.0 -0.1 -1.1 1.6 0.6 -0.4 -3.0 MoM 3.0 3.3 3.3 4.5 2.3 1.8 4.6 2.5 1.2 -5.5 -6.8 -7.2 -0.4 YoY 23.6 9.5 22.1 24.9 30.4 1.2 5.9 64.8 4.7 -12.0 -20.1 -3.7 0.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally by 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of low volatility observed in markets on account of closure of US and UK markets. The currency touched an intra-day low of 83.76 and closed at same level on Monday.

Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with selling of dollars from exporters. Additionally, weakness in the DX acted as a supportive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside was cushioned as a result of less volatility in the markets on account of closure of US and UK markets. The currency touched an intra-day high of 55.52 and closed at 55.57 against dollar on Monday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.18,335.80 crores th ($3,358.13 million) as on 27 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.79,372.20 crores ($14,668.50 million) till 27 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned as a result of selling of dollars from exporters.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR May13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.76 55.57 55.61 55.61 Prev. day 0.0 0.4 -0.18 -0.18 WoW -0.1 -1.0 0.76 0.76

as on May 27, 2013 MoM 1.9 -2.6 2.43 2.43 YoY 5.4 -0.4 0.38 0.38

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for May 28, 2013 Support 55.50/55.35 Resistance 55.75/55.95

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated marginally in the yesterdays trading session on the back of optimistic European Markets. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped as the markets in the US and UK remained closed on account of public holiday. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.2948 and closed at 1.2929 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR May 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2929 71.93 72.0 72.0 Prev. day 0.0 0.2 -0.36 -0.35

as on May 27, 2013 WoW 0.4 -1.7 1.34 2.78 MoM -1.3 -1.4 1.76 1.78 YoY 3.3 -6.0 3.29 3.32

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of strength in DX. Further, weak global market sentiments may add downside pressure on the currency. However, European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Joerg Asmussen comments that the bank should be cautious about cutting interest rates to negative, this may prevent sharp decline in the euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR May13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.80/71.60 72.10/72.30
Source: Telequote

valid for May 28, 2013 Support Resistance

GBP (% change)

as on May 27, 2013

GBP/INR
Last Prev. day -0.16 -0.532 -0.14 WoW -1.0 -0.18 0.25 MoM -2.6 -0.34 0.29 YoY -3.6 -3.17 -3.19

The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.16 percent in yesterdays trade. The pound remained under pressure as the market in UK and US remained closed on account of public holiday. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5085 and closed at 1.5101 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in DX. Further, weak global market sentiments may add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 28, 2013 Support 83.90/83.70 Resistance 84.30/84.50

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR May13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR May 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5101 83.96 84.11

84.09

-0.19

0.22

0.27

-3.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| May 28, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) declined by 0.4 percent in April as against a fall of 0.2 percent in March. The Yen touched an intraday high of 100.72 and closed at 100.93 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR May 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for May 28, 2013 Support 55.00/54.90 Resistance 55.25/55.40

JPY (% change)
Last 100.93 0.5496 55.12 55.12 Prev day -0.3 -0.25 0.17 0.22

as on May 27, 2013 WoW -1.3 1.89 2.26 2.26 MoM 3.3 -0.90 0.27 0.27 YoY 26.7 -20.92 -20.84 -20.84

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR May13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on May 28, 2013

Indicator S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence MPC Member Tucker Speaks Country US US UK Time (IST) 6:30pm 7:30pm 10:30pm Actual Forecast 10.2% 70.7 Previous 9.3% 68.1 Impact Medium High Medium

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