2009-04 Global Monitor Final

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor
Summary:
• Economy has peaked in terms of spending, production & employment
• Global economy in Stage 5 – Early Downturn
Stocks: May have further downside risk (perhaps 20%)
Commodities: Likely to have formed a bottom
Government Bonds: Likely to have formed a top
Firm Strategy: Budget offerings, look for long-term supplier contracts
Personal Strategy: Protect job, expand skills, reduce spending, rent
Global Economic Summary, Asset, Personal & Business Strategy 2
Global Economy Personal Strategy
1. Consumer sentiment remains at historical lows 1. Conservative Investor: Cash is king, wait for
2. Consumer wealth is falling with stocks down and transition to equities
property falling 2. Aggressive Investor: Long-term government bonds
3. Consumer spending (demand) growth continues to 3. Property: Rent over buy if possible
contract 4. Employment: Protect job, expand skills
4. Business production/service activity continues to 5. Finances: Reduce debt and spending
contract 6. Debt: Look to refinance at lower interest rates
5. The global manufacturing/services PMI appears to
have bottomed
6. Global unemployment continues to rise Business Strategy
7. Leading indicators in several economies have, or 1. Competitive Strategy: Continue budget offerings
are close to bottoming 2. Operational Strategy: Continue cost reductions,
8. The OECD World CLI may bottom as early as June reduce inventory
9. The global economy is early in Stage 5 – Early 3. Human Resources: Review remuneration
Downturn conditions
4. Supplier Strategy: Anticipate upcoming purchase of
capital equipment
Asset Classes 5. Acquisitions/Divestments: Anticipate possible
1. Equities: Possible short-term bottom in place, acquisitions
further risk to downside
2. Property: Further falls ahead in November 2010
3. Bonds: A likely top has been achieved
4. Commodities: At or near bottom

Global Economy: What stage are we in? 3
Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery The business cycle is
Actual currently in Stage 5 –
Economy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late Early Downturn.
OECD Leading
Indicator (100)
Over the next few
months we expect to see
OECD Reference further declines in
Series (100) economic indicators until
Consumer consumer sentiment and
Sentiment spending recovery.
Consumer
The trigger for the
Spending Grth
transition to Stage 6 is
Industrial increasing consumer
Production sentiment and spending,
Rising Stagnating Falling Falling Stagnates Rising Rising Stagnating
leading to a reversal in
PMI production related
Above 50 Above 50 to 50 Thru 50 Below 50 Below 50 To 50 At 50
series.
Rising Stagnating Falling Falling Stagnates Rising Rising Stagnating
PSI
Above 50 Above 50 to 50 Thru 50 Below 50 Below 50 To 50 At 50
For now the momentum
Unemployment appears to be to the
Rate downside.
Business
Investment
Reserve Bank
Funds Rate
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor 8 Stage Business Cycle

8 Stage Asset Class Cycle: Where to invest? 4
Asset Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery
Classes 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late

Stock
Market
Commodity
Sectors
Government
Bonds
Stock Market
• The stock market is predicting a smooth recovery based on early positive economic results (e.g. US PMI)
• Stocks may have further downside (~30%) once the March 6 rally concludes
• The current rally does not appear supported by economic fundamentals
Commodity Sector
• Commodities, particularly copper and oil, are rising strongly
• The Baltic Dry Index has been falling in contraction to commodity strength
• Sound long-term commodity fundamentals have commodities ahead of our 8-stage economic model
Bond Sector
• Extreme central bank interest rate interventions have bonds ahead of our 8-stage model predictions
• The top in bonds appears to have been achieved in Dec 2009

8 Stage Firm Business Cycle: Business Strategy Ideas? 5
Business Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery
Strategy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late
Competitive Budget Quality
Key Customers New Customers
Strategy Offerings Offerings
Sales Consider long- Move to long- Key Customers Consider short- Move to short- New Cust.
Strategy term contracts term contracts Budget Offers term contracts term contracts Quality Offers
Operations More cost Expand

Cost cutting Plan Expansion
Strategy cutting Operations
Human Avoid wage Review Enter wage

Limit Hires Hire Staff
Resources negotiation conditions negotiation
Acquisitions/ Avoid acq., Sell Plan for Make

Divestments assets acquisitions acquisitions
Supplier Move to short- Press for Move to long-

Press quality
Contracts term discounts term
Debt (Loan) Sell assets, Seek short-term Ensure credit Procure capital Seek long-term
Management reduce debt funds availability equip funds
Firm Business Cycle Strategy Ideas

• Continue to focus on budget offerings, consumers/customers/clients are under financial pressure
• Target sales activity towards key customers with budget offerings (recognise their financial pressure)
• Look to use the crisis to implement cost cutting, institute more efficient work practices/processes
• Look to review wage remuneration rates to lock in lower unit labour costs
• If cashed up, start planning for acquisitions that will expand market share or product offering
• Continue to press for discounts from your major suppliers

8 Stage Personal Business Cycle: Personal Strategy Ideas? 6
Personal Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery

Strategy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late
Conservative Transition to Transition to Stock
Stock Market Stock Market Term Deposit Term Deposit Stock Market
Investing Strat. cash stock market Market
Aggressive Stocks & Stocks & High Quality High Quality Corporate Transition to
Commodities Stock Market
Investing Strat. Commodities Commodities Long Bonds Long Bonds Bonds Stocks
Employment Pursue Seek secure Become Plan next Assume Pursue

Seek wage rise Expand skills
Strategy promotion employment indispensible career move responsibility promotion
Spending & Debt Cut back, Focus on Buy major Take long-term
Essential only
Strategy retire debt retiring debt items debt
Housing Avoid buying here, prices and Avoid buying here, lower as Try to buy here, prices and
Considerations sentiment buoyant lower prices are ahead sentiment subdued
Personal Business Cycle Strategy Ideas

• Conservative investors remain in cash. Begin planning your stock investments as we approach Stage 6
• Aggressive Investor may look to transition towards corporate bonds or look for a stock market bottom
• This is a time to expand career skills through skills training or difficult assignments
• Focus on essential purchases only at this stage, look to retire debt
• Avoid buying property here if possible, lower prices are ahead

Global OECD Composite Leading Indicators 7
Most nations CLI remain in downturn (below 100 and decelerating). The rate of deceleration for Russia,
Brazil and China in particular suggest further declines ahead. Korea and Italy have accelerating CLI
suggesting a near term recovery for these nations.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economic Maps
Global OECD Standardised Unemployment Rate 8
All nations shown now have rising unemployment over a 3month period. Whilst Spain remains in
unemployment purgatory, we see the US and Canada leading OECD nations into recession induced high
unemployment with high and increasing unemployment rates.
Global OECD Standardised Consumer Confidence 9
Consumer confidence appears closer to a bottom than business confidence with the rate of decline
beginning to slow. The UK, Australia, Korea, Brazil and Spain have stable consumer confidence (i.e. not
falling, near Y-axis). China has low and declining consumer confidence.
Global OECD Standardised Business Confidence 10
Business confidence remains subdued everywhere except Korea. US business confidence looks to be
improving, Australia’s has stabilised, and confidence in most other OECD nations continues to decline.

OECD Standardised Consumer Confidence History 11
OECD World Consumer Confidence
Historical lows reflect severity of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

The good news is that sentiment may have bottomed for the cycle.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy

JP Morgan Global All-Industry PMI 12
Feb Mar Summary
Output 37.4 40.1 Contracting at slower rate
New Orders 36.7 37.7 Contracting at slower rate
Employment 39.1 37.5 Declining at record rate
Input Prices 45.1 41.3 Falling at faster rate
Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous

month, <50 a decrease, =50 indicates no change.
Slight improvement for the month, however the PMI and sub-component remain in contraction.
Employment weakened noticeably to a record rate of contraction.

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI 13
Feb Mar Summary
Global PMI 35.8 37.2 Contracting at slower rate
Output 33.4 35.2 Contracting at slower rate
New Orders 31.4 35.8 Contracting at slower rate
Employment 35.0 35.8 Falling at slower rate
Input Prices 35.1 34.2 Falling at faster rate

Slight improvement for the month, however the PMI and sub-component remain in strong contraction.
Employment strenthened marginally for the month.

JP Morgan Global Services PMI 14
Feb Mar Summary
Output/activity 38.6 41.5 Contracting at slower rate
New Business 38.1 38.3 Contracting at slower rate
Backlogs of work 37.9 40.6 Contracting at slower rate
Employment 40.3 37.9 Contracting at faster rate
Input Prices 47.9 43.3 Costs falling at faster rate

Improved for March noticeably to 41.5. Whilst all elements remain in contraction, backlog improved,
new business was steady, and employment and input prices fell.

OECD World/NAFTA CLI & Industrial Production 15
The World* CLI declined 0.82 to 91.41 in February The NAFTA CLI declined 1.00 to 90.52 in February
(previous month decline 1.05). If the trend of a (previous month decline 1.22). If the trend of a
slowing rate of decline continues the CLI should slowing rate of decline continues the CLI should
bottom in 4 months (June 2009). bottom in 5 months (July 2009).
Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9
month delay on the CLI suggests an economic month delay on the CLI suggests and economic
recovery in 1st quarter 2010. recovery in 1st quarter 2010.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Leading Indicators

OECD Major 4 Europe/Major 5 Asia CLI & Industrial Production 16
The Major 4 Europe CLI declined 0.06 to 94.42 in The Major 5 Asia CLI declined 0.92 to 90.47 in
February (previous month decline 0.39). The February (previous month decline 1.12). If the
Major 4 Europe CLI will likely bottom in March trend of a slowing rate of decline continues the CLI
should bottom in 5 months (July 2009).
Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9
month delay on CLI bottoming suggests an Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9
economic recovery in 4th quarter 2009. month delay on the CLI suggests and economic
recovery in 1st quarter 2010.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Leading Indicators

OECD CLI Analysis: US, China, Australia, & World 17
The peak rate of decline of the US (consumer), China (manufacturer) and World CLI was in November 2008. Australia
(commodities) decline rate peaked in January 2009. We anticipate global CLI bottoming around Qtr 4 2009, with an
economic recovery in 1H 2010.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Leading Indicator Analysis

US, UK & Australian House Price Index 18
Global house prices continue to decline. US, UK and Australian prices are down 30%, 19% and 4%
respectively. The US market peaked in June 2006, the UK in October 2007 (US +16 months), and
Australian in March 2008 (US + 21 months).
S&P Case-Shiller Futures data suggests US house prices will bottom in November 2010 with a peak-
trough decline of 35.9% (115.2 on the index).
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Property

US, UK & Australian House Price Annualised Rate of Change 19
Global house prices continue to decline with the US, UK and Australian prices falling at 19.4%, 15.7%
and 3.0% per annum respectively. The gain from June 1994 to the peak was 194%, 261%, and 204%
respectively (Perth, Australia 351%).
Only UK house prices are showing a slowing in the rate of house price declines.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Property

OECD United States CLI & Industrial Production 20
The US CLI declined 1.12 to 89.87 in February (previous month decline 1.36). If the trend of a slowing
rate of decline continues the CLI should bottom in 5 months (July 2009).
Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

OECD US Standardised Consumer Confidence History 21
OECD US Consumer Confidence
US consumer confidence forming a bottom.

US Consumer Sentiment and Personal Consumption 22
US Consumer Confidence (via Uni Michigan survey) Real personal consumption spending contracted at
declined to near record lows. a slower rate (~-1.2%) compared to the previous
month.
Look for a rise above 65 towards 70+ as evidence We need to see a rise in spending as a precursor to
of recovery. a general recovery.

US Industrial Production & Unemployment Rate 23
Industrial production continues to collapse, down Unemployment is sky-rocketing, above 8% and

12% year-on-year. Lower production means less rising rapidly.
need for workers…
Falling employment will lead to lower spending
and further US house price declines.

US GDP and Private Employment 24
US GDP continues to decline, currently -0.8% yoy. Private employment growth, our bellwether
The rate of decline in production and employment indicator, continues contract (-4.2%). USPRIV is
suggest further declines ahead. indicating Stage 5 – Early Downturn for the US
economy.

ISM PMI/NMF: Historical of New Orders and Production/Activity 25
Production and services activity improved for the month, continuing to suggest peak contraction has past. Most note-
worthy is the continued rise in manufacturing new orders, although new services business contracted further.

OECD Euro Area CLI & Industrial Production 26
The Euro Area CLI declined 0.19 to 93.82 in February (previous month decline 0.51). It is likely that the
Euro Area CLI will bottom in March.
recovery in 4th quarter 2009.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Euro Economy

OECD Euro Area Harmonised Unemployment Rate 27
Continues to rise, up 0.3% to 8.5% in February. Further rises ahead…

EC Euro Economic Sentiment, Business Climate & Production 28
Economic sentiment for March is showing signs of recovery in the EU and EA led by the services and
construction sector. Business climate remains in a steadfast downtrend.

OECD Japan CLI & Industrial Production 29
The Japan CLI declined 1.48 to 89.74 in February (previous month decline 1.55). The decline rate of
the CLI is stable making predictions of a CLI bottom difficult.
The plunge in Japanese industrial production defies description. Medium term this will have major
impacts on the Japanese economy.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Japan Economy

Japan Unemployment Rate 30
Rose 0.3% to 4.4% in February continuing the business cycle uptrend. Further rises likely ahead…

OECD Japan Standardised Consumer Confidence History 31
OECD Japan Consumer Confidence
New record low and still declining without a bottom in sight.

OECD China CLI & Industrial Production 32
The Euro Area CLI declined 0.74 to 90.08 in February (previous month decline 1.10). If the slowing rate
of CLI decline continues, the China CLI may bottom in 2 months (May 2009).
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor China Economy

CLSA China Manufacturing PMI 33
Continued contraction in Chinese manufacturing is indicated by a PMI of 44.8 in March, down slightly
from 45.1 in February. Notable was the decline in new business orders which is ominous for future
Chinese output.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor China Economy

OECD German CLI & Industrial Production 34
The German CLI declined 0.31 to 90.32 in February (previous month decline 1.08). It is likely that the
German CLI will bottom in March.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor German Economy

German Harmonised Unemployment Rate 35
German unemployment rises continues to rise, up to 7.4% in February from 7.3% in January. Germany
was perhaps the last OECD nation to experience a rise in unemployment.

OECD German Standardised Consumer Confidence 36
OECD German Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment plunging, no bottom in sight.

OECD United Kingdom CLI & Industrial Production 37
The UK CLI declined 0.24 to 95.74 in February (previous month decline 0.28). It is likely that the UK CLI
will bottom in the April-May 2009 timeframe.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor United Kingdom Economy

United Kingdom Harmonised Unemployment Rate 38
UK unemployment continues to rise, up to 6.4% in December 2008 from cycle lows in December 2007.

OECD UK Standardised Consumer Confidence History 39
OECD UK Consumer Confidence

OECD France CLI & Industrial Production 40
The France CLI rose 0.09 to 96.41 in February (previous month decline 0.03) marking a bottom in this
series.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor France Economy

France Harmonised Unemployment Rate 41
Unemployment rose 0.3% to 8.6% in February. Note the previous months rise was 0.2% indicating that
unemployment is accelerating. Further rises expected.

OECD France Standardised Consumer Confidence History 42
OECD France Consumer Confidence

OECD Italian CLI & Industrial Production 43
The Italian CLI rose 0.35 to 96.70 in February (previous month rise 0.09). The Italian CLI bottomed in
December 2008.
recovery in 3rd quarter 2009.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Italian Economy

Italian Harmonised Unemployment Rate 44
Unemployment held steady in December at 6.9%. However the trend is for continued increases from the
May 2007 lows.

OECD Italy Standardised Consumer Confidence History 45
OECD Italy Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment still falling, though not at extremely low levels.

OECD Canadian CLI & Industrial Production 46
The Canadian CLI declined 1.16 to 90.61 in February (previous month decline 1.29). If the slowing rate
of CLI decline continues, the CLI may bottom in 9 months (November 2009).
recovery in 2nd quarter 2010.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Canadian Economy

Canadian Unemployment Rate 47
Unemployment following the US and rising rapidly.

OECD Canadian Standardised Consumer Confidence History 48
OECD Canadian Consumer Confidence

OECD Australian CLI & Industrial Production 49
The Australian CLI declined 0.96 to 96.05 in February (previous month decline 0.79). If the slowing rate
of CLI decline continues, the CLI may bottom in 7 months (September 2009).
recovery in 2nd quarter 2010.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Australian Economy

Australian Unemployment 50
The growth rate in full-time equivalent Unemployment has bottomed for the cycle and is
employment negative (contracting). now rising rapidly.
Further falls in full-time employment is certain. Unemployment above 7-8% is expected.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Australian Economy

US Treasury Yields (Overnight, 1 Year, 10 year) 51
1yr US Treasury notes remain ~0.5% yield 10yr US Treasury bonds fell to a cycle low of 2.1%
reflecting the safe haven status and the in December 2009 before rising to around 2.9% in
deteriorating economic conditions. April.
Sustained rises above 3% may indicate economic
recovery and/or inflation.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy (via US Economy)

Inflation v Deflation (via US 10 Year Treasury Yields) 52
Implied 10yr future inflation predictions have widened, though remain at very low levels (1.2%). Low
inflation predictions reflect the dire economic predictions due to the current crisis (deflationary
expectations), however these have widened recently. Note the November 2008 10yr inflation
predictions were effectively 0% amidst the financial gloom.

US Consumer Debt Outstanding & Debt Servicing Payments 53
Consumer debt growth again hit a series low of Debt service payments are down slightly to a still-
0.4%. The current crisis can be described as ‘peak very-high 14.0%. The high payments and inability
credit’ as the fall in credit-fueled spending is one of to expand credit further are a major drain on the
the major causes of the economic contraction. economy.

US GDP, Consumer Debt & Personal Consumption 54
The fall in annualised GDPis easily seen in light of Much of the GDP growth since 1983 has been
changes in annual consumer credit growth. fueled by credit growth expansion (particularly
since 2001).
Consumer spending growth is clearly driven by consumer credit (debt) growth. And this is plunging!!!

US Personal Savings Rate 55
US consumers have reversed their spending patterns of the last decade, achieving a savings rate not
seen since 1995. The need to save is driven by record high indebtedness and debt servicing payments.
Whilst this chart is provided for the US, it is representative of the savings patterns of consumers in
other OECD nations such as the UK and Australia.

Oil Price Change (annualised) and Industrial Production 56
Oil price changes tell us much about the state of Industrial production continues to decline, not yet
the economy. This series may be predicting a rise confirming a bottom in the oil series.
in economic activity (as occurred at previous lows).

Commodities Basket 57
Falling commodities reflect weak demand in a weak economy. Commodities have recovered around
13% from their February 2009 lows suggesting that economic recovery may be imminent.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Commodities

Oil Price and US Oil Stocks 58
The last 5 weeks have seen a powerful rise in oil The US (as indicator for the global economy)
from ~$35 to $55 (~48%). The rise above $50 is continues to accumulate oil inventories, albeit at a
significant suggesting that December 2009 was the slightly reduced rate. This seems at odds with
oil price low. recent rises in the oil price.

Dr Copper and the Baltic Dry Index 59
Rising copper is suggesting increasing economic The BDI has fallen since its early March high,
activity and thus a possible imminent recovery. seemingly in contradiction to the recent runup in
commodities prices. As the BDI appears to lead
commodities, changes in BDI/commodities over
then next few months will be important.
Copper is a useful leading economic indicator as it is a key material The Baltic Dry Index is the daily shipping rate for bulk dry cargo
in the manufacture of durable goods, particularly electrical and ships carrying goods such as iron ore, coal and wheat. It is believed
plumbing items. to provide a good leading indicator of economic activity.
Agriculture (Grains) & Livestock 60
Agricultural grains prices continue to strengthen Livestock prices are trending higher from their
off their December 2008 lows though are yet to March 2009 lows. Having exceeded 220, the trend
break out of the 260-320 range. appears higher suggesting a strengthening
economy.

Gold and the US Dollar 61
Gold has weakened in March having retested the The uptrend in the US dollar appears intact. The
$960/ounce level. USD seems headed towards the 88-90 range
which should place downward pressure on
commodity prices.

Stock Market: Developed Economies 62
Consistent with early signs of a recovering economy, developed stock markets have rallied from the
March 6, 2009 lows. Most markets are approaching resistance formed by the January 2009 highs.
The index covers the US (^GSPC), Japan (^N225), UK (^FTSE), Germany (^GDAXI), France (^FCHI), Australia (^AORD), Canada (^SPTSE),
Spain (^SMSI), and Italy (^SPMIB).
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Stock Markets

Stock Market: Emerging Economies 63
Emerging markets (BRIC) recovered on March 9, 2009 along with developed markets. Emerging markets
have exceeded their January 2009 highs indicating a new bullish trend may be inplace.
The index covers Brazil (^BVSP), Russia (^RTS.RS) and India (^BSESN), China (^HSI). The US (^GSPC) is provided as a reference series to
enable a comparison with developed markets above.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Stock Markets

Bond Market: US 7-10 & 20+ Year Treasury Bonds 64
Bond prices (long and shorter duration) may have peaked for the cycle in December 2008. US Treasury
purchases by the US Federal Reserve are likely to limit further price declines with prices stabilising at
current levels.
The index covers the iShares Lehman 7-10yr Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) and iShares Lehman 20+yr Treasury Bond Fund (TLT). The US
(^GSPC) is provided as a reference series to enable a comparison with developed markets above.
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Bond Markets

OECD CLI & Industrial Production (Nations 1-4) 65
April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Composite Leading Indicators





OECD CLI & Industrial Production (Nations 21-23, South Africa) 70

BCM Book of the Month: Meltdown… 71
Meltdown: A Free Market Look at Why the Stock Market
Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts
Will Make Things Worse
• Is Capitalism the Culprit?

• The media tells us that "deregulation" and "unfettered free
markets" have wrecked our economy and will continue to
make things worse without a heavy dose of federal
regulation.
• But the real blame lies elsewhere. In Meltdown, bestselling
author Thomas E. Woods Jr. unearths the real causes
behind the collapse of housing values and the stock market-
-and it turns out the culprits reside more in Washington
than on Wall Street.
• And the trillions of dollars in federal bailouts? Our
politicians' ham-handed attempts to fix the problems they
themselves created will only make things much worse.
• Available on the BCM Website:

– Podcasts
– Book Reviews
– Websites

72
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Alternatively, you can register for our
BCM US Monitor ($0.99/month), or our
BCM Australian Monitor ($1.49/month).
These country specific publications provide far greater
detail on their respective economies. Essential for the
active monitor!!
Understand, monitor and exploit the business cycle…
Disclaimer, Fair Use, Copyright 73
Disclaimer. Mark Walmsley B.Eng, MSc, MBA is the Business Cycle Monitor editor. The statements, opinions, buy or
sell signals, and analysis presented in this document are provided as a general information and are for news
commentary and educational services only. All opinions, estimates, buy or sell signals, and predictions
expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change
without notice. The information contained in the newsletter is expressed in good faith, but its accuracy is not
guaranteed. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment
advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment
decision, you are advised to consult your financial planner, broker or other appropriate tax or financial
professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Business Cycle Monitor nor Mark Walmsley
shall be held responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from,
the information provided.
Fair Use Policy. The BCM Global Monitor is sold to customers for personal use only. BCM considers it ‘fair use’ to
forward one copy of the BCM Monthly to friends, family or associates for the purpose of introducing said
individuals to BCM monthly publications. Such introductions lead to increased subscribership, greater research
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Copyright. Copyright 2009. All rights reserved.
Business-Cycle Information. This summary should be read in conjunction with the business cycle articles and
references provided at www.business-cycle-monitor.com. These provide additional information on how the
business cycles functions.
Description and References. Additional information on these indicators, global maps, the simplified economic model
and the sources used in this publication can be found at the BCM website.
www.business-cycle-monitor.com

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April 2009 BCM Global Monitor

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor 8 Stage Business Cycle

Asset Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery

Classes 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor 8 Stage Business Cycle

Operations More cost Expand

Human Avoid wage Review Enter wage

Acquisitions/ Avoid acq., Sell Plan for Make

Supplier Move to short- Press for Move to long-

Firm Business Cycle Strategy Ideas

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor 8 Stage Business Cycle

Personal Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery

Employment Pursue Seek secure Become Plan next Assume Pursue

Personal Business Cycle Strategy Ideas

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor 8 Stage Business Cycle

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economic Maps

Historical lows reflect severity of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy

Output 37.4 40.1 Contracting at slower rate

New Orders 36.7 37.7 Contracting at slower rate

Employment 39.1 37.5 Declining at record rate

Input Prices 45.1 41.3 Falling at faster rate

Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy

Global PMI 35.8 37.2 Contracting at slower rate

Output 33.4 35.2 Contracting at slower rate

New Orders 31.4 35.8 Contracting at slower rate

Employment 35.0 35.8 Falling at slower rate

Input Prices 35.1 34.2 Falling at faster rate

Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy

Output/activity 38.6 41.5 Contracting at slower rate

New Business 38.1 38.3 Contracting at slower rate

Backlogs of work 37.9 40.6 Contracting at slower rate

Employment 40.3 37.9 Contracting at faster rate

Input Prices 47.9 43.3 Costs falling at faster rate

Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Leading Indicators

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Leading Indicators

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Leading Indicator Analysis

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Property

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Global Property

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

US consumer confidence forming a bottom.

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

Industrial production continues to collapse, down Unemployment is sky-rocketing, above 8% and

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor US Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Euro Economy

Continues to rise, up 0.3% to 8.5% in February. Further rises ahead…

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Euro Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Euro Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Japan Economy

April 2009 BCM Global Monitor Japan Economy

New record low and still declining without a bottom in sight.