Currencies Daily Report

Monday| June 3, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| June 3, 2013

Highlights
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased to 84.5 84.5-level in May. Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate rose to 11.9 percent in Q1 2013. Indias GDP grew as expected by 4.8 percent in Q4 of 2012. European Unemployment Rate grew to 12.2 percent in April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA 5986.0 19760.3 15115.57 1630.7 17214.1 2001.1 58497.8 13774.5 91.97 1392.60 22.23 7276.00 102.09 Prev. day -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 -1.8 -1.3 0.0 -0.4 0.0

as on May 31, 2013 WoW 0.0 0.3 -1.2 -1.1 1.9 1.4 3.8 -0.1 -2.4 0.4 -1.1 -0.1 -3.0 MoM 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.1 0.5 1.8 5.5 -2.9 -3.8 -5.1 -7.1 -7.3 -0.5 YoY 21.6 8.0 22.0 24.5 33.7 2.6 7.4 61.2 6.3 -10.9 -22.0 -2.2 0.4

US Personal Spending fell by 0.2 percent in April as against a rise of 0.1 percent in March. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 9.7 points to 58.7-mark in May from increase of 49-level level in April. Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment increased by 0.8 points to 84.5-level level in May as compared to earlier gain of 83.7 83.7-mark a month ago. Indias Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew as expected by 4.8 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise of 4.5 percent in Q3 of 2012.

S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (May13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (June13) - $/oz Comex Silver(May13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.4 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the early part of the week which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable US consumer confidence and sentiments data also exerted downside pressure on the currency. . However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of US equities trading on a negative note. Additionally, slow growth in the US GDP also prevented sharp fall in the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 83.01 and closed at 83.40 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.40 56.57 56.83 56.82 Prev. day 0.4 -0.3 0.27 0.25 WoW -0.4 -1.4 2.02 1.99

as on May 31, 2013 MoM 1.5 -5.1 5.34 5.32 YoY 5.0 -1.0 0.72 0.70

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 1.4 percent. The currency depreciated on account of statement from countrys central bank chief Subbarao that inflation is still on higher side coupled with worries over current account deficit. Additionally, heavy dollar buying from defense related companies and month end requirement of oil importers exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside was cushioned as a result of weak domestic and global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX DX. Further, countrys GDP grew in line with th expectations also prevented fall in the Indian Rupee. The currency touched a low of 56.76 in the last week and closed at 56.57 against dollar on Friday. For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.22,168.60 crores st ($4,042.64 million) as on 31 May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital st inflows stood at Rs.83,205.10 crores ($15,353.0 million) till 31 May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of heavy dollar demand from defense companies and oil importers coupled with weak global market sentiments. However, weakness in the DX along with forecast for favorable manufacturing data will cushion sharp fall or even reversal in the Indian Rupee. Technical Outlook

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

valid for June 3, 2013 Trend Support 56.60/56.45 Resistance 57.0/57.15

US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Up

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| June 3, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in DX. Further, mixed global markets sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unfavorable economic data from the region. Additionally, rise in the Euro region on unemployment rate raised the concerns over the regions worsening debt situation. German Retail Sales declined by 0.4 percent in April as against a fall of 0.5 percent in March. French Consumer Spending fell by 0.3 percent in April from rise of 1.3 percent cent in March. Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate rose by 11.9 percent in Q1 of 2013 as compared to increase of 11.4 percent in Q4 of 2012. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate increased to 12 percent in last month when compared to increase rease of 11.9 percent i in March. European Unemployment Rate grew to 12.2 percent in April from rise of 12.1 percent in March. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3061 and closed at 1.2995 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate preciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. However, sharp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of weakness in DX coupled with expectations of favorable Spanish and Italian manufacturing data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 73.55/73.40 73.90/74.10 valid for June 3, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2995 73.43 73.7 Prev. day -0.4 0.2 0.39

as on May 30, 2013 WoW 0.5 -1.9 2.11 MoM -0.9 -4.2 4.52 YoY 5.2 -7.9 5.49

73.7

0.37

2.12

4.53

5.47

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5198 86.019 86.36 Prev. day -0.22 0.22 0.170 0.79

as on May 31, 2013

WoW 0.5 1.91 2.53

MoM -2.4 2.90 3.43

YoY -1.3 -0.36 -1.11

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling erling Pound appreciated by 0.5 percent on the back of weakness in DX along with mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp upside was capped as a result of unfavorable economic data from the country. UKs Money Supply increased by 3 percent in April as against a decline of 0.9 percent cent in March. Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at 54,000 in the month of April. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.4 billion Pounds in April from 1.1 billion Pounds in March. The Sterling Pound touched a high of 1.5239 in the last week and closed at 1.5198 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the currency can be prevented or reversal can be seen as a result of expectations of favorable manufacturing data from the country along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 3, 2013 Support 86.10/85.95 Resistance 86.50/86.70

86.36

0.80

2.51

3.48

-1.11

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

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JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the later part of the week which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable economic data from the country also supported an upside in the currency Japans Capital Spending declined by 3.9 percent in Q1 of 2013 from earlier fall of 8.7 percent in Q4 of 2012. The Yen touched a weekly high of 100.23 and closed at 100.46 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate preciate taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable economic data from the country will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 3, 2013 Support 56.35/56.20 Resistance 56.75/56.90
Source: Telequote

as on May 31, 2013 Last 100.46 0.5633 56.60 56.60 Prev day -0.3 0.99 1.29 1.31 WoW -0.8 2.23 2.86 2.90 MoM 1.5 1.84 2.20 2.26 YoY 28.2 -21.12 -20.77 -20.79

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on June 3, 2013

Indicator Capital Spending q/y HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI FOMC Member Yellen Speaks Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Country Japan China US UK Europe Europe UK US Time (IST) 5:20am 7:15am 7:20am 3 -7
rd th

Actual -3.9% 49.2 -

Forecast -5.5% 49.6 0.2% 45.5 46.2 50.3 50.6

Previous -8.7% 49.6 1.1% 44.7 45.5 49.8 50.7

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High

12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 7:30pm

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