Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn gn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell o or r solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedbac feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

Overview

International Commodities
US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49-mark mark in previous month. Indias HSBC PMI declined to 50.1-mark mark in the prior month. Spanish Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.1-mark mark in May. UKs Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3-mark mark in the last month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 56.66 Prev day -0.2 0.2

as on 3 June, 2013 w-o-w -2.0 m-o-m -4.7 y-o-y -2.0

Asian markets are trading on a positive note today on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its stimulus spending in light of poor economic indicators. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.7 points to 49 49-mark in May as against a rise of 50.7-level level in April. ISM Manufacturing Prices fell by 0.5 points to 49.5-level level in last month with respect to rise of 50 50-mark in April. The Rupee depreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session and touched an 11-month low on account of unfavorable manufacturing data. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined by 0.9 points to 50.1-mark mark in May which is at the 50 50month low from earlier rise of 51-level level in April. Additionally, weak domestic market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. Sharp downside in the Rupee was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 56.825 and closed at 56.66 against dollar on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the later part of the trade, which led to fall in demand for the low-yielding yielding currency. Further, expectations that Federal Reserve will not cut its bond buying program also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable manufacturing ufacturing data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 82.46 and closed at 82.69 on Monday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.497.0 crores rd ($87.97 million) as on 3 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital rd inflows stood tood at Rs.82,708.10 crores ($15,265.0 million) till 3 June 2013. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.1 points to 51.3-mark mark in May as against a rise of 50.2 50.2-level in April. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor increased by 1.8 percent in May from earlier fall of 2.2 percent a month ago.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3075

0.6

1.1

0.0

5.2

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.69

-0.9 0.9

-1.3

0.4

4.1

5939.3

-0.8 0.8

-2.4

-0.5

20.6

SENSEX

19610.5

-0.8 0.8

-2.1

-0.3

7.2

DJIA

15254.0

0.9

-0.3

1.9

25.9

S&P

1640.4

0.6

-0.6

1.6

28.4

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region also acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3107 and closed at 1.3075 against dollar on Monday. Monday However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of mixed global market sentiments. ufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Spanish Manufacturing increased by 3.4 points to 48.1-mark in May as against a rise of level in April. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.8 points 44.7-level to 47.3-level level in last month from earlier gain of 45.5-mark 45.5 in April. European Final al Manufacturing PMI gained by 0.5 points to 48.3-mark mark in May with respect to rise of 47.8-level 47.8 a month ago.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices gained 1.8 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments also acted as a positive factor for the prices. Further, expectations that US Federal Reserve will not cut its bond buying program acted as a supportive factor for the prices prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1416.11/oz /oz and closed at $1411.10/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on positive note by 1.1 percent and closed at Rs.27179/10 gms after touching an n intra intra-day high of Rs. 27221/10 gms on Monday. . Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1411.1 Prev. day 1.8 as on 3 June, 2013 WoW 1.2 MoM -3.9 YoY -13.2

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

26925.0

-0.5

1.9

-1.4

-7.0

1402.5

0.6

0.9

-4.5

-12.7

$/oz

1411.7

1.4

2.4

-2.6

-12.9

Rs /10 gms

27179.0

1.1

2.8

0.3

-8.6

Source: Reuters

Silver
Taking cues from rise gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices rose by 2.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. Additionally, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside side in the prices was capped as a result of unfavourable economic data from US. . The white metal prices touched an intra-day high of $22.96/oz and closed at $22.70/oz /oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices gained by 1.8 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4 Rs.44414/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.44686/kg on Monday Monday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.7 45140.0 Prev day 2.3 -0.2

as on 3 June, 2013 WoW 0.4 0.4 MoM -5.3 -2.5 YoY -20.7 -15.9

$/oz $/ oz

2243.0 22.7

-0.6 0.0

0.2 2.4

-7.5 -4.4

-18.1 -18.9

Rs / kg

44414.0

1.8

1.8

-1.7

-18.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
In intraday trade, , we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectation that the Federal Reserve will not reduce stimulus measures will also support upside in prices prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 4, 2013 Support 1400/1392 27150/27000 22.40/22.15 43900/43500 Resistance 1416/1421 27450/27550 22.90/23.10 44900/45300
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

International Commodities
Energy
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
as on 3 June, 2013 WoW 0.4 -0.7 MoM -3.2 -2.8 YoY 2.8 12.3

Crude Oil
Crude Oil Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 102.0 93.5

Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.6 percent yesterday, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its bond buying program also supported an upside in prices. Additionally, upbeat economic data from the Euro Zone acted as a positive factor for oil prices. Sharp upside however in oil prices, was capped on account of unfavorable manufacturing data from the US. . Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $93.70/bbl and closed at $93.50/bbl /bbl on Monday. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.3 percent as a result of depreciation in the Rupee. Prices on the MCX near near-month contract closed at Rs.5,287/bbl, after touching a days high of Rs.53 Rs.5301/bbl in yesterdays trading session. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to fall by 0.2 million barrels for the week ending on 31st May 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.6 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 1.3 million barrels for the same week. Outlook day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade From the intra-day higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its bond buying program, will also support an upside in the crude prices. Additionally, forecast for decline in API crude oil inventories will act as a positive factor for oil prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation preciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp upside in crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude June13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 4, 2013 Support 91.90/90.85 5230/5170 Resistance 93.50/94.60 5320/5380

Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (July 13) ICE Brent Crude (July13) MCX Crude (June 13)

Prev. day 1.2 1.6

$/bbl

102.1

1.7

-0.5

-3.2

3.7

Rs/bbl

5287.0

0.3

1.3

1.8

14.2

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13)

as on 3 June, 2013

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.986 226.1

Prev. day 0.1 -0.7

WoW -5.61 -5.52

MoM -1.63 3.86

YoY 71.07 72.46

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a positive note yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favourable economic data from Euro Zone also supported an upside in the prices. Further, expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its bond buying program also acted as a positive factor for the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of decline in manufacturing data from US along with mixed LME inventories scenario. In the Indian market depreciation in the Rupee upee supported p prices to trade in the green. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel (3 month) $/tonne 15151.0 2.2 2.3 -0.1 -5.7 Rs /kg 107.8 1.8 6.7 6.8 -1.0 $/tonne 1922.0 1.0 4.5 1.7 -2.5 Rs/kg 415.5 0.6 2.0 4.7 1.9 $/tonne Last 7350.5 Prev. day 1.0 as on 3 June, 2013 WoW 0.9 MoM -6.3 YoY 0.1

Copper
Copper, the leader of the base metal pack gained by 1 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of upbeat global markets along with weakness in the DX. Further, favourable Spanish and Italian manufacturing data and expectations of US Federal Reserve to continue its bond buying program also supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of fall in US manufacturing anufacturing data and rise in LME copper inventories by 1.4 percent which stood at 617,225 tonnes. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7397.75/tonne /tonne and closed at $7 $7350.5/tonne on Monday. On the domestic front, prices gained 0.6 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 415.5/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs 419.90/kg in yesterdays trade trade. Outlook In intra-day trading, , we expect base metals prices to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with expectations of Federal Reserve continuing its bond buying program will also support an upside in the prices. Additionally, forecast for favourable economic data from the Euro Zone will act as a positive factor. Appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the domestic bourses. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 4, 201 2013 Support 412/409 108.50/107.50 124.50/123.80 107.0/106.30 850/842 Resistance 417/420 110.0/110.80 126.50/127.50 108.50/109.50 865/874

MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)

Rs /kg

857.6

3.5

4.8

4.8

-4.2

$/tonne

2216.3

0.8

6.9

8.2

16.5

Rs /kg

125.5

1.3

8.6

13.7

18.6

$/tonne

1946.0

1.2

5.0

3.0

3.1

Rs /kg

109.2

2.7

7.3

7.8

4.3

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 3rd June 617,225 5,198,375 180,072 1,086,350 217,000 31st May 608,450 5,202,000 179,796 1,086,825 219,475 Actual Change 8,775 -3,625 276 -475 -2,475 (%) Change 1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -1.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| June 4, 4 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Construction PMI Trade Balance FOMC Member George Speaks Country UK Japan Euro UK UK US US Time (IST) 4:31am 7:00am 12:30pm 4 -7
th th

Actual 1.8% 0.3% -

Forecast 0.6% -50.2K 0.2% 49.7 -41.1B -

Previous -2.2% 2.2% -0.9% 0.9% -46.1K 46.1K 1.1% 49.4 -38.8B 38.8B -

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

2:00pm 6:00pm 11:00pm

www.angelcommodities.com