Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee touched a low of 57-mark mark in yesterdays trading session. st US Unemployment Claims declined to 346,000 for w/e on 31 May. German Factory Orders declined by 2.3 percent in April April. ECB cuts the growth forecast of Euro region to -0.6 0.6 percent for 2013 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 56.92 Prev day -0.1 0.1

as on 6 June, 2013 w-o-w -1.0 m-o-m -5.3 y-o-y -2.4

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of expectations that Federal Reserve will cut its stimulus spending nding after favorable jobless claims data from US in yesterdays trade. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.3 percent as positive market sentiments led to pressure on the currency. y. Global equities witnessed a bounce back in sentiments as a result lt of favorable jobless claims from the US. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 81.07 and closed at 81.54 on Thursday. The Rupee depreciated in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of heavy dollar demand from oil importers coupled with strength in the DX in early part of the trade. Additionally, there were expectations of pullback in stimulus measures by Fed which exerted downside pressure on the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 57.0 and closed at 56.92 against dollar on Thursday. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.343.20 crores th ($60.57 million) as on 6 June 2013. Year ar to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.83,548.30 crores ($15,413.60 million) till 6 June 2013. German Factory Orders declined by 2.3 percent in April as against a rise of 2.3 percent a month ago. European Minimum Bid Rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) grew at a slow pace of 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 1.1 percent in April. Asset Purchase Facility was at 375 billion Pounds in June. Official Bank Rate also remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in current month.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3245

1.2

1.5

1.3

6.4

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.54

-1.3 1.3

-1.8

-1.6

2.6

5921.4

0.0

-3.3

-2.0

21.8

SENSEX

19519.5

-0.2 0.2

-3.4

-1.9

6.7

DJIA

15040.6

0.5

-1.9

-0.3

21.2

S&P

1622.6

0.8

-1.9

0.3

23.4

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated 1.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX and on statement from by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that the regions economy will grow gradually over a period of time. The ECB however cut its economic outlook -0.6 percent growth for 2013 from previous ous estimates of -0.5 percent. day high of 1.3304 and closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.3245 against the dollar on Thursday. Thursday

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices gained around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1423.16 23.16/oz and closed at $1413.20/oz in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp harp upside in prices was capped on account of expectations that Fed will reduce its stimulus spending. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a positive note, rising 1.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.27905/10 gms after touching an intra-day day high of Rs. 2 28038/10 gms on Thursday.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1413.2 Prev. day 0.7 as on 6 June, 2013 WoW 0.0 MoM -2.7 YoY -12.6

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27600.0

2.3

2.8

2.0

-5.5

1400.0

-0.3

-1.0

-3.1

-12.8

$/oz

1415.7

1.2

1.7

-1.5

-13.3

Rs /10 gms

27905.0

1.8

2.8

4.4

-6.4

Silver
Source: Reuters

Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX DX, Spot silver prices rose by 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The white metal prices touched an intra-day day high of $22. $22.80/oz and closed at $22.60/oz in yesterdays trade. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of downside in the base metals group coupled with expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce its quantitative easing program. On the domestic front, prices gained 0.6 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.44,508/kg /kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.44,744/kg on Thursday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.6 45330.0 Prev day 0.3 0.9

as on 6 June, 2013 WoW -0.6 -0.4 MoM -5.4 -0.4 YoY -20.7 -20.0

$/oz $/ oz

2262.0 22.7

1.1 0.0

-0.3 2.1

-4.8 -3.9

-22.7 -20.4

Outlook
In intraday trade, we expect precious metals to trade on a positive note on the back of weak global markets, which will lead to increase in safe-haven haven demand. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped due to DX strength ngth and also on expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim its bond buying program. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 7, 2013 Support 1402/1394 27811/27584 22.48/22.20 44346/43940 Resistance 1427/1441 28132/28360 22.94/23.22 44910/45310

Rs / kg

44508.0

0.6

0.2

-0.8

-18.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 1.1 percent yesterday, taking cues from favorable US jobless claims data, which led to expectations of increase in demand for the fuel. . Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in oil prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra intra-day high of $95.32/bbl and closed at $94.80/bbl on Thursday. sday. However, sharp upside in crude prices was capped on account of expectations of cut in stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.8 percent and the commodity closed at Rs.5,404/bbl, /bbl, after touching a days high of Rs.5 Rs.5432/bbl in yesterdays trading session. Depreciation in the Rupee also acted as a positive factor for oil prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (July 13) ICE Brent Crude (July13) MCX Crude (June 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 103.6 94.8 Prev. day -0.1 1.1 WoW 1.4 1.2 as on 6 June, 2013 MoM -2.5 -1.7 YoY 4.3 11.5

$/bbl

103.6

0.6

1.4

-0.8

4.8

Rs/bbl

5404.0

0.8

2.0

4.6

15.3

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13)

as on 6 June, 2013

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices fell 3.8 percent yesterday on the back of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of warm weather conditions exerted downside pressure on prices. Sharp drop in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. Gas prices touched an intra-day day low of $3.824/mmbtu and closed at $3.849/mmbtu in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices plunged by 4.2 percent and closed at Rs.218.60/mmbtu after touching an intra-day y low of $218.0/mmbtu on Thursday. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory increase increased more than expectations by 111 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 2.252 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 31st May 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of fall in US crude rude oil inventories which has fallen the most in this year coupled with favorable economic data from US in yesterdays trade. . Further, estimation of favorable economic data from the US will also support an upside in prices. However, sharp gains will be capped on account of expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its bond buying program. Weak global markets along with strength in the DX will also add pressure. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support upside in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude June13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 7, 2013 Support 93.85/92.95 5374/5324 Resistance 95.40/96.20 5444/5484

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.849 218.6

Prev. day -3.8 -4.2

WoW -4.42 -4.62

MoM -3.70 0.83

YoY 59.05 62.65

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a negative note yesterday on the back of expectations of cut in stimulus spending by Fed Fed. Additionally, unfavourable German factory orders data also added downside pressure on prices. Further, cut in the economic growth outlook by ECB also acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX along with positive US jobless claims data data. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall fall. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) $/tonne 2197.3 -1.5 1.5 8.1 14.1 Rs /kg 856.4 -1.1 2.9 4.2 -3.4 $/tonne 15050.0 -0.9 1.8 -1.0 -9.5 Rs /kg 110.3 -0.5 4.4 9.2 1.5 $/tonne 1962.8 -0.1 3.5 4.2 -1.3 Rs/kg 416.9 -1.7 0.6 5.2 2.7 $/tonne Last 7330.0 Prev. day -1.5 as on 6 June, 2013 WoW 0.4 MoM -6.6 YoY -2.0

Copper
Copper prices fell 1.5 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of expectations that Fed will reduce its bond buying program program. Further, unfavourable German factory orders also exerted downside pressure on prices. The red metal touched an intra-day day low of $7300.75/tonne and closed at $7330.0/tonne on Thursday. Sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX coupled with decline in LME copper inventories by 0.3 percent which stood at 610,375 tonnes. On the domestic front, prices declined 1.7 percent and closed at Rs. 416.9.2/kg, after touching an intra-day low of Rs 416.6 416.60/kg yesterday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metal prices to trade on a negative note on the back of expectations of cut in bond buying program from US Federal Reserve, weak global markets along with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices will be cushioned shioned as a result of forecast for favourable economic data from US. Depreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the domestic bourses. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 7, 201 2013 Support 414.30/411.80 108.35/107.75 124.10/123.20 109.75/109.20 851/845 Resistance 419.0/421.60 109.90/110.85 125.70/126.70 110.90/111.50 862/872

MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)

Rs /kg

125.0

-1.7

1.6

14.1

18.1

$/tonne

1934.0

-0.9

1.4

3.1

1.6

Rs /kg

109.0

-1.1

2.6

8.3

4.4

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 6th June 610,375 5,196,025 179,808 1,082,050 207,750 5th June 612,300 5,204,550 179,898 1,077,050 210,400 Actual Change -1,925 -8,525 -90 5,000 -2,650 (%) Change -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 -1.3
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| June 7, 7 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator German Trade Balance Consumer Inflation Expectations Trade Balance German Industrial Production m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m Country Euro UK UK Euro US US US Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Actual Forecast 16.5B -8.8B 0.0% 167K 7.5% 0.2% Previous 17.6B 3.6% -9.1B 9.1B 1.2% 165K 7.5% 0.2% Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

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