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PTTEP - Analyst Meeting 1Q13
PTTEP - Analyst Meeting 1Q13
May 8, 2013
Agenda
1. 2. 3. 4.
Industry Update Q1 2013 Financial Performance Q1 Achievements, Strategy and Operation Update Q2 2013 Outlook
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Oil Prices
Price level to remain relatively high for the rest of 2013
US$ / Barrel 140 130 120
Average Brent-Dubai (% Differential) Dubai Brent
Brent Forecast
% Differential 10%
Range $99 $125
Crude Oil Price Dynamics Upside drivers Strained output from Middle East / Africa from geopolitical tension U.S. and China economy recovery
8% 6% 4% 2%
110 100 90 80
$111
Downside drivers Eurozone prolonged debt crisis Increased production from non-OPEC suppliers Heavy-Light Differential Circumstances include: U.S. light crude supply Progress of pipeline projects to Gulf Coast refineries Emergence and technological breakthrough of hydrocarbon alternatives
0%
-2%
Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Rest of 2013
-4%
50%
100
Average $95
80
60 10% 40
Q1 12 Q2 12 WTI-WCS (% Differential) Q3 12 WTI Q4 12 WCS Q1 13 Rest of 2013
0%
WTI Forecast
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United States : Linn / Berry Denbury / ConocoPhilips Sinopec / Chesapeake Rosetta / Comstock
MEA 27%
Mozambique : CNPC / Eni $4.2bn
14.57
9.38 4.83 4.65 2.48
15.30
10.20 5.03 1.86 Europe Canada United States Africa / Middle East
10
0
Ithaca / Valiant Sinopec / Chesapeake Denbury / ConocoPhilips Linn / Berry Rosetta / Comstock CNPC / Eni
Sources : Wood Mackenzie, IHS Herold Note : 1 TRR refers to total discovered reserves and resources. Most assets in United States are valued at proved reserves as non-proved reserves are undisclosed.
4 / 21
Add capacity for export to Asia Proposal sent to National Energy Board Online by 2018 if approved
2. TransCanada Keystone XL
Increase PADD III1 take of Canadian crude oil Extension from Cushing to Gulf Coast Revised proposed route submitted in January 2013 Awaiting U.S. Presidential Permit (expect in 2013) In-service by 2015
Hardisty
Note : 1) Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) III refers to Gulf Coast refineries in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas
5 / 21
Agenda
1. 2. 3. 4.
Industry Update Q1 2013 Financial Performance Q1 Achievements, Strategy and Operation Update Q2 2013 Outlook
6 / 21
Liquid
Gas
294,233
291,476 253,411
Q1 2013
Volume Mix
200,000
Liquid 34%
190,842
169,933
105.52 99.81
109.03 103.26
107.49 96.33
108.24 98.72
115.87 113.01
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Operating Performance
Effective Cost Management
Cash Cost
$/BOE
Unit Cost
40
32.22
30 20
34.13
(US$/BOE)
32.32 31.89
Q4 12
28.86
Lifting Cost
14.47 14.90
13.13
10
14.69
14.2
2012
13.61
7.80 3.09 2.11 5.61
Q4 12
Q1 13
14.87 8.04 2.44 1.41 5.56
Success Ratio*
11:25
43:54
13:17
4:9
6:8
13.26
7.91 4.06 2.51 6.39
* Exploration and Appraisal Wells ** Exclude diluent cost for blending bitumen in KKD Oil Sands project
Note : The formulas for calculating ratios are provided in the supplementary section for your reference
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Financial Highlights
Maintain strong EBITDA margin at ~ 70%
2011
2012
YoY(%)
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q1 12
QoQ(%)
YoY(%)
Total Revenue(MMUS$)
5,685
7,021
24
1,954
1,907
1,627
(2)
18
EBITDA (MMUS$)
3,814
4,816
26
1,268
1,337
1,125
19
69
70
67
73
72
2,908
3,455
19
1,149
1,601
1,133
39
41
Net Profit (MMUS$) Net Profit before non recurring items Gain (loss) from non recurring items* Earnings per Share (US$)
1,468
1,846
26
449
680
589
51
15
1,659
1,999
20
494
585
538
18
(191)
(153)
20
(45)
95
51
>100
86
0.44
0.46**
25
0.13
0.17
0.18
31
(4)
* Includes gain/loss on FX, deferred tax from US$ Functional currency, and others ** Based on number of shares as of 31 Dec 12 (3,970 million shares), If based on weighted average number of shares during the year, EPS =0.55
9 / 21
Financial Highlights
Manage capital structure to match with nature of business
(Unit : MMUS$)
Asset Liability Total Interest Bearing Debt* Equity Debt to Equity (x) Debt to EBITDA (x)
THB 3%
31 December 2011
14,131 7,820 3,873 6,312 0.61 1.02
31 December 2012
19,637 8,926 3,773 10,711 0.35 0.78
CAD
31 March 2013
20,889 9,920 3,793 10,969 0.35 0.75
13%
Debt Structure*
US$ 97% US$ 87%
5%
Weighted Average Cost of Debt* (%) [Fixed : Floating] Average Loan Life* (Years)
* Exclude Hybrid bonds
10 / 21
Agenda
1. 2. 3. 4.
Industry Update Q1 2013 Financial Performance Q1 Achievements, Strategy and Operation Update Q2 2013 Outlook
11 / 21
1.00
0.50
Recurring net profit 585 MM$ 18% increased QoQ EBITDA margin maintains at Level of ~ 70%
0.00 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1 2013
Industry Benchmark
12 / 21
Growth Strategy
Existing Assets are expected to contribute up to 600 KBOE/D in 2020
Algeria HBR
Appraise M3, Explore M11 & Onshore blocks Complete 1st exploration program Explore for potential in several permits Continue to look for additional reserves Explore the frontier area
900
KKD
Cove
M&A
600
Bongkot
Arthit
MTJDA
S1
Yadana Yetagun
Domestic
2012
*As of 31 March, 2013
2020
13 / 21
Myanmar Zawtika
Production Growth from Southeast Asia Stronghold
PROJECT MAP KEY UPDATES
Myanmar
M3 Yadana Kanbauk
3 WHPs construction, intra-field sealines installation completed Offshore export pipeline constructed and tied-in Continue drilling of development wells On target for first gas end of 2013 with commercial delivery in Q1 2014 Production capacity @ 300 MMSCFD (240 MMSCFD to Thailand and 60 MMSCFD to Myanmar)
Pipeline
Zawtika (M9)
M11 Yetagun
ANDAMAN SEA
Gas Field
STRATEGIC CONTRIBUTION
Production Volume (KBOED) Gas Liquid
600
FORWARD CHECKPOINTS
Q1
WHPs Construction Offshore Pipeline
300
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
Onshore Pipeline Development Wells 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2013 2020
First Gas
= Completed
14 / 21
KEY UPDATES
Montara Expected first production by Q2 2013 An additional well to be drilled by Q3 2013 Insurance claim received to date US$ 212 million of total US$ 248 million Cash/Maple Expected reserves certification within 2013 Ongoing Exploration : Maple-3 drilling ~ Q1 2014 Support PTT FLNG on hydrocarbon development
FORWARD CHECKPOINTS
Cash/Maple Montara
STRATEGIC CONTRIBUTION
Production Volume (KBOED) Gas Liquid
600
Q1
Montara : First Oil
300
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
2013
2020
15 / 21
Canada
Leismer / Leismer Expansion : Q1 2013 Production ~ 14.6K BPD Winter Evaluation Program (WEP) completed Steam-to-Oil Ratio (SOR) maintained at ~ 2.5 Pad 5 well pair drilling in progress 20K BPD production capacity target by Q4 2013 Expansion: FEED approval by Q2 2013 Corner: Front End Engineering Design (FEED) commenced
STRATEGIC CONTRIBUTION
Production Volume (KBOED) Gas Liquid
600
FORWARD CHECKPOINTS
Q1
Leismer : 2012-13 WEP
300
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
2013
2020
FEED
= Completed
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Mozambique
Discovered resources to-date ~ 35 65 TCF Encouraging exploration progress Natural gas discovery in Orca-1 Reserves certification expected by Q4 2013 Ongoing negotiation with potential LNG purchasers Joint development with Area 4 Onshore liquefaction facilities Unitization of Prosperidade shared area
STRATEGIC CONTRIBUTION
Production Volume (KBOED) Gas Liquid
600
FORWARD CHECKPOINTS
Q1
Reserves Certification
300
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
2013
2020
FID
= Completed
17 / 21
M11
Myanmar M3 &M11 M3 : 4 Appraisal wells (2 wells completed in Q2) M11 : 1 exploration well (Q4) Zawtika 2 Appraisal wells (Q4)
..
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Mozambique
Kenya Offshore
Kenya
L7 : 1 Exploration well drilled Kubwa-1 (non-commercial, oil shows) L11B : 1 Exploration well Kiboko-1 (drilling on progress)
..
19 / 21
Agenda
1. 2. 3. 4.
Industry Update Q1 2013 Financial Performance Q1 Achievements, Strategy and Operation Update Q2 2013 Outlook
20 / 21
Q2 2013 Outlook
Price
No major gas price movement from adjustments in Bongkot, Yadana, and Yetagun projects Oil price remains volatile amidst on-going economic and political concerns
Operation
Montara to progress with close project management to ensure production start-up by Q2 2013
Exploration
M3 Appraisal drilling campaign : 3rd of 4 wells to be drilled in Q2 Continue Kenya L11B drilling of an exploration well (Kiboko-1)
21 / 21
Disclaimer
Forward-looking Information The information, statements, forecasts and projections contained herein reflect the Companys current views with respect to futur e events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks. No assurance is given that these future events will occur, or that the Companys assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Companys best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Companys g ross basis. This presentation may contain the terms proved reserves, probable reserves, and/or contingent resources. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources - Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.
Supplementary Index
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Total Shareholders Return Thailand Energy Outlook PTTEP Project Information Corporate Social Responsibility Organization Structure Ratio formula
50
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 8.5% 0 Oil & Gas Benchmark3 8.7% S&P 500 (TR) 19.5% 20.2% SET TRI2 PTTEP1
..-93
..-95
..-97
..-99
..-01
..-03
..-05
..-07
..-09
..-11
..-13
(1) PTTEP closing price on 30 June 1993: 5.07 Baht. Closing price as of 3 May 2013: 153.00 Baht (2) SET Total Return Index (SET TRI) measures market performance, including price movements (capital gain/loss), rights offered to current shareholders allowing them to purchase additional shares, usually at a discount to market price (rights offering), and income from dividend payments (dividends) assuming they are reinvested in securities. Base Date: 31 January 2002; CAGR calculated from 31 January 2002 to 6 May 2013 (3) O&G benchmarks represent the entire industry and cover over 300 different O&G companies worldwide ,including Chevron, Exxon, BP,and Shell.
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream
Supplementary 1/8
Energy Consumption
Nuclear
1% 0% 2% 17 % 4% 19% Hydro
MMSCFD @ 1000 BTU
Gas Consumption
2013
2012 2011
40 %
34%
Natural Gas
40 %
42%
Petroleum Product
2,500 2,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020
Source : EPPO
MMMSCFD
Gas Market
Gas Demand
5,000
Contracted Import
4,000
21%
60%
3,000
59%
1,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source : PTT & EPPO
1,000
Supplementary 2/8
Ensure gas deliverability at 220 MMSCFD Drill Appraisal wells to appraise petroleum reserves and resources Conduct Appraisal activities Maximize oil production and sustain gas deliverability Drill Exploration well Maintain production plateau as per GSA commitment Drill Exploration/Appraisal wells to appraise petroleum reserves and resources Optimize oil production and maintain gas deliverability Drill development wells and install wellhead platforms Maintain production plateau as per GSA commitment Drill development wells and install wellhead platforms Maximize gas deliverability Maintain production rate Drill Exploration wells to appraise petroleum reserves and resources Maximize oil production Maintain and maximize production rate Maintain production level above 30,000 BPD Continue Exploration activities Conduct 3D Seismic Interpretation Maintain production plateau Maintain production plateau as per GSA commitment Continue exploration activities Increase Leismer production up to production capacity and optimize well and facilities performance Continue development of Leismer Expansion and Corner Project Conduct Winter Evaluation Program (WEP) e.g. Appraisal/Delineation wells, including 3D seismic Maintain Gas and Condensate production Continue exploration and appraisal activities Maintain production rate Maintain production plateau as per GSA commitment Maintain production plateau as per GSA commitment
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Bongkot Contract 3 (Unocal III) Contract 4 (Pailin) E5 G4/43 G4/48 PTTEP 1 S1 Sinphuhorm MTJDA
918 MMSCFD Condensate: 32k BPD 607 MMSCFD Condensate: 16k BPD 389 MMSCFD Condensate: 15k BPD 15 MMSCFD 1 MMSCFD 7 MMSCFD 25 MMSCFD 116 MMSCFD Condensate: 0.5k BPD 253 MMSCFD Condensate: 6k BPD 43 MMSCFD
Crude: 5k BPD Crude: 3k BPD Crude: 0.3k BPD Crude: 33k BPD -
60%
PetroVietnam
19
Vietnam 16-1
28.5%
SOCO OPECO
50% 25% 31.24% 28.26% 15% 30.00140 % 20.4541% 19.3178% 10.90878 % 41% 28.5% 2%
Supplementary 3/8
40% 25%
Bir Seba & MOM Oil Field Development Finalize bidding Engineering Procurement & Construction (EPC) and drill development wells Expect production to reach 20,000 BPD in 2014 Continue development activities Complete 3D Seismic in Zawtika East (continued from 2011) First gas expected at end of 2013 Daily contractual quantity at 300 MMSCFD (80% to Thailand and 20% to Myanmar) Montara : first production in 1Q 2013 with the maximum capacity of 35,000 BPD Drill additional well in Cash/Maple field to appraise petroleum resources FLNG finalize Pre-FEED Study and proceed with FEED
21
80%
20%
22
23
Supplementary 4/8
30%
3D Seismic acquisition and processing Pending activities and waiting for final boundary resolution (overlapping area Thai Cambodia) Drill 1 Exploration well in L21/48 and conduct G&G studies Drill 2 Exploration wells and 2 Appraisal wells Drill 4 Exploration wells /additional 3D Seismic acquisition Complete Exploration Phase 1 Prepare for Exploration Phase 2 Drill 1 Exploration well Completed evaluation work and prepare for relinquishment (pending government approval) Drill 2 Exploration wells Conduct G&G studies Continue G&G studies Continue G&G studies and 2D seismic processing for new oil play potential Continue 3D seismic data interpretation and G&G studies from 2012 PSC decision whether to continue or close out project Continue 3D seismic data interpretation and G&G studies from 2012 PSC decision whether to continue or close out project Drill 4 appraisal wells (M3) / 1 Exploration well (M11) Received approval from Myanmar Government on M11 farm-out to TOTAL & JX NOEX Continue 3D seismic acquisition and G&G studies from 2012
32 33 34 35 36
Indonesia South Mandar Indonesia Malunda Indonesia Sadang Indonesia South Sageri Myanmar M3 Myanmar M11 New Zealand Great South Vietnam B & 48/95
CNOOC Sonatrach Murphy Diamond Resources Resourceful Petroleum SPC Murphy INPEX PT Pertamina Hulu Energi Semai II Talisman TOTAL Talisman TOTAL Talisman TOTAL MOECO TOTAL, JX NOEX Shell OMV Mitsui E&P Chevron MOECO PVEP Chevron PVEP MOECO WinPreciousResources Anadarko, Mitsui, ENH, Bharat Petroleum, Videocon Anadarko, Maurel&Prom, ENH, Wentworth Resources BG, Premier, Pan Cont. BG, Premier, Pan Cont. Anadarko, Total
24.5% 51% 40% 30% 33.33% 33.33% 28.33% 28.33% 15% 33% 33% 40% 30% 35% 45% 20% 40%, 15% 50% 18% 14% 42.38% 25.62% 23.5% 43.4% 30% 19.6% 10% 36.5%,20% 15%,10%,10% 35.7%,27.7% 15%,11.6% 40%,20%,15% 45%,25%,15% 50%,40%
37
38
8.5%
39
Vietnam 52/97
7%
40 41
PSC-G and EP-2 Mozambique Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Mozambique Rovuma Onshore Kenya L10A Kenya L10B Kenya L5, L7, L11, L11B, L12
90% 8.5%
2D seismic acquisition Evaluate prospects and prepare for drilling campaign Drill Exploration and Appraisal wells Complete FEED / FID for Mozambique LNG Project Drill Exploration wells Drill Exploration wells
42
10%
43
44
Note: (1) Subject to an official approval from the government of Republic of the Union of Myanmar
Supplementary 5/8
The Reforestation of Mangrove Project 746 rai in Chantaburi Thai / Natural Heritage & World
Mobile Library Project : for 8 schools in Khon Khaen Educational Promotion / Health
Natural Gas for Community Farmers and Environment Project, made good use of the gas in a community enterprise at Nong Tum The PTTEP Ruam Jai Patthana Employee Club ,committed to social improvement activities Local Culture Conservation : School mini-farm in Khon Kaen
Supplementary 6/8
Organization Structure
Board of Directors and Several Committees to Ensure Transparency and Integrity
Board of Directors
Corporate Governance Committee Audit Committee Nominating Committee Remuneration Committee Risk Management Committee
Internal Audit Corporate Safety, Security, Communication Health & and Reputation Environment Division Division Safety, Security, Security, Safety, Health & & Health Environment Environment Division Division
Office of President & CEO Strategy and Business Development Group Canada Asset Business Development Division 1 Domestic Asset Group Bongkot Asset Arthit Asset S1 Asset Business Development Division 2 Business Development Division 3 Corporate Strategy Division
Enterprise Risk and Management, Finance Strategic Internal Control, and Insurance Division Information Technology
Human Resources and Business Services Group Human Resources Resources Division Division Human
Finance and Strategic Corporate Knowledge and Information Technology Division Technology Management Division
Operations, Supply Chain, and Technology Group Supply Chain Management Division Well Technology Division
International Asset Group International Asset Australia Asset Myanmar Asset East Africa Asset
Geosciences, Reservoir Engineering & Exploration Group Exploration & New Venture Division Geosciences & Reservoir Engineering Technology Division
Development and Engineering Group Field Development Planning Division Engineering, Construction and Maintenance Division
Supplementary 7/8
Ratio formula
Ratio Lifting Cost ($/BOE) Cash Cost ($/BOE) Unit Cost ($/BOE) F&D Cost ($/BOE) F&D Organic Cost ($/BOE) Reserves Replacement Ratio Reserves Life Index (Year) Formula (Operating Exp. Transportation Cost Stock Variation Other expense not related to lifting) / Production
Volume
(Operating Exp. + SG&A + Royalty & SRB) / Sales Volume (Operating Exp. + Exploration Expense + SG&A + Royalty + DD&A) / Sales Volume (5 Yr Avg. of Acquisition + 5-Yr Avg. of (Expl.+ Dev. Cost )) / 5 Yr Avg. of additional reserves 5-Yr Avg. of (Expl.+ Dev. Cost )) / 5 Yr Avg. of additional reserves excluded 5 Yr Avg. of Acquisition 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume Proved Reserves / Production Volume Number of wells with petroleum discovery / Total number of exploration and appraisal wells (Sales + Revenue from pipeline transportation) - (Operating expenses + Exploration expenses + Administrative expenses + Petroleum royalties and remuneration + Management's remuneration) EBITDA / Sales Revenue Trailing-12-month net income / Average shareholders' equity between the beginning and the end of the 12month period
Success Ratio
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Return on Equity
Short-term loans from financial institution + Current portion of long-term debts + Bonds + Long-term loans
from financial institution Total interest bearing debt/ Shareholders' equity
Supplementary 8/8