Assignment 1 Runnng Hd: ASSIGNMENT NUMBER 5

Madnias Assgnmnt numbr 5 [Mohamed M Madnia] [American Military University]

Assignment 2

Assgnmnt numbr 5 Introducton Trrorsts hv long bn fscntd wth ttckng commrcl rlns, bcus thy r symbols of wht thy consdr wd modrnzton of th Wstrn world. Howvr, bsds th thtrcl vlu of downng plns, th rln ndustry lso ccounts for hug prt of th Amrcn conomy. Trvl nd toursm r now th lrgst ndustry n th world of Amrcn commrcl rlns nd rltd busnsss to ttrct mor thn $ 150 bllon n rvnu lst yr nd us bout 1.1 mllon popl. Ar trvl s prt of th foundton of Amrcn busnss wth th pssngrs n th yr 2000 wth mor thn 600 mllon trps. Although t ws short, thr-dy suspnson r trvl ftr th ttcks on Spt. 11, 2001, sgnfcnt mpct on th vton ndustry, s wll s th U.S. conomy s whol, from whch sh took yr to fully rcovr. Although sgnfcnt mount of mony hs bn nvstd to nsur th ntrnl scurty of plns, thy r stll xtrmly vulnrbl to xtrnl ttcks from shouldr frd mssls. Mor corrctly known s MANPADS

Assignment 3 (mn-portbl r dfns systms), ths mssls r wdly vlbl on th blck mrkt nd r known to b t th dsposl of trrorst groups lk Al Qd. Currntly, no commrcl rcrft n th U.S. r quppd wth countrmsurs to protct gnst ttck by MANPADS. Durng th forty-yr hstory of thr us, ths wpons r lrmngly hgh probblty of kll prcntg ovr 70% whn shootng wth unprotctd rcrft. Ths s not surprsng tht n dlng wth th As-Pcfc Economc Cooprton forum, formr Scrtry of Stt Coln Powll wrnd tht "no thrt s mor srous to vton "thn MANPADS. Th lklhood of such ttcks s xtrmly hgh, t lst 27 trrorst groups tht hv confrmd or suspctd of posssson of MANPADS. Thr ws t lst dozn ttcks snc 1994, trgtng commrcl rcrft wth four plns bng shot down, ncludng on n whch th Prsdnts of Rwnd nd Burund wr trvlng. Wth th strngthnng of scurty t rports nd th trrorsts' frozn obssson wth hgh-profl ttcks on plns, th chncs of ttck by MANPADS to b tkn n th nr futur s xtrmly hgh.

Assignment 4 Dscusson MANPADS r vry populr wth trrorsts bcus thy r rltvly chp, sly portbl nd smpl to us, nd cus grt dmg. In ts bsc form, conssts of MANPADS mssls r pckd nto tub wth hdskrs, th lunch of mchnsm known s "grpstock", nd th bttry. Wgh-n from thrty to forty pounds, thy r vry mobl nd cn b sly hddn. Typcl mssl cn b bult nd lunchd n s lttl s 30 sconds for trgts flyng vrywhr to 15.000 ft n th rng of thr to fv mls.VI Journy to th spd of Mch 2, th tm btwn lunch nd dtonton of pproxmtly fv sconds, ny countrmsurs n xtrmly short wndow n whch to b ffctv. Although plnt-md shlf-lf of such wpons, usully bout 22 yrs, MANPADS s old s 28 hv bn ffctvly usd n trrorst ttcks. Thr r sx dffrnt clssfctons of tchnology MANPADS n xstnc. Th frst gnrton of nfrrd (IR) mssls known s tl chs wpons, how thy spnd th hot thrml sgntur, thy dscovr tht r typclly mttd by rcrft xhust. Ths modls cn b frd on from bhnd thr trgt nd r vry snstv to ntrfrnc from smpl countrmsurs such s flrs. Th most

Assignment 5 populr frst-gnrton MANPADS currntly n us r th Amrcn rd-y, th Chns HN-5, nd th Sovt SA-7. Ths s lkly to shouldr frd mssls cn b found n th rsnl of trrorst orgnztons. Th scond gnrton modl s slghtly mor complctd us of rfrgrnts for coolng sylum hd llow t to fltr out ntrfrnc from most typs of outbrks. Ths mssls r lso cpbl of ttckng ts trgt from ny ngl. Thy com n th form of th Amrcn Stngr, th Sovt SA-14, SA-16 nd th Chns FN-6. Th thrd nd fourth gnrton MANPADS sgnfcntly Flsh vdnc nd my b protctd from th us of complx lsr systms, whch wll b dscussd ltr. Th Brtsh hv dvlopd systm CLOS mssl, whch uss rdo wvs to th trgt rcrft. Although t s vry dffcult to dfnd gnst ths wpon s unlkly to b usd by trrorsts n conncton wth hgh lvl of sklls rqurd for thr oprton.

Prolfrton of MANPADS Accordng to th U.S. Stt Dprtmnt, thr r bout twnty countrs ovr th pst forty yrs, gv mllon MANPADS. USAF Countrprolfrton Cntr consrvtvly stmtd tht pproxmtly 6000 of ths

Assignment 6 wpons r now byond th control of govrnmnts worldwd. Most of th vrsons vlbl on th blck mrkt of hgh-tch frst-gnrton wpons whch slls for bout $ 5000 pc. Howvr, mor complx modls ltr gnrtons, s s known, wr sold for up to $ 250,000. Trrorsts cqurng such wpons n th frmwork of ntrntonl rms dlrs, such s Hmnt Lkhn, Brtsh ctzn from l-Qd connctons who ws rrstd n Fbrury 2003 for ttmptng to smuggl 50 MANPADS from Russ to th Untd Stts. Thr othr rms dlrs wr lso cught n 2005 ttmptd to mport 200 Russn SA-18 mssls n th U.S. Ths xmpls provd compllng vdnc tht trrorsts r ctvly nd ggrssvly tryng to us MANPADS tchnology down rplns n th U.S.. Mny sophstctd MANPADS lso fll nto th hnds of trrorsts, "s th rsult of dcds of U.S. nd USSR wth th prtcpton of th rbl movmnts n thr fforts to prvl n th Cold Wr. Durng th Sovt occupton of Afghnstn, th CIA s known to b subjct to th Mujhdn fghtrs from round 1000 mssls Stngr n md-1980's. Mujhdn usd Stngrs r vry ffctv gnst Sovt hlcoptrs nd probbly just turnd th rmnng muntons gnst U.S. troops dployd n Irq

Assignment 7 nd Afghnstn. Ironclly, th U.S. govrnmnt ws ntlly hstnt to provd Afghnstn wth such dngrous wpon for fr tht thy wll vr b turnd gnst U.S. forcs. Th CIA lso knows tht suppld FIM92A Stngrs to UNITA rbls n Angol n ordr to ssst thm ovrthrow thr pro-communst govrnmnt. Accordng to rcnt rport ssud by th Govrnmnt Accountblty Offc (GAO), Dprtmnt of Dfns (DOD) fld to kp ccurt rcords of th mount nd purpos mssl Stngr sold brod. Smlr vnts took plc n Novmbr 2002, whn th Russn govrnmnt offclly cknowldgd tht "tns of thousnds" of MANPADS hd bn stoln from ts rsnl ovr th yrs. If th rcton of th Amrcn popl n futur ttcks on th vton ndustry rflcts thr bhvor ftr 9 / 11, w cn xpct tht on dy off s lkly to rduc th numbr of popl flyng by 10% ovr th nxt two wks. RAND prdctd tht on-wk suspnson s lkly to ld to dcrs n r trvl by 15% ovr th nxt sx months ftr th ttck. Durng th month closd, th projctd rducton n busnss flghts by nrly 25% for th 18-month prod. 9 / 11 tught us tht, dspt ddtonl scurty msurs tkn to combt th thrt of ttck stll lngrd th mmory n th publc

Assignment 8 conscousnss cuss r to dcln by 8% ovr th nxt yr nd by 14% of rln workrs los thr jobs. RAND blvs tht f th govrnmnt ws fully wr of th potntl dmg tht MANPADS ttck could hv on Amrc's conomy, t would b mor wllng to py $ 12 bllon to vod ncdnts tht dvrsly ffct rln ndustry for ovr 6 months nd $ 50 bllon to vod n ttck tht would rduc r trvl nd hlf yrs.

Consqunc mtgton If trrorsts succssfully crry out n ttck by MANPADS gnst U.S. rcrft, th mn prorty of th govrnmnt should b to rstor publc confdnc n r sfty. As shown rlr, th rln ndustry s n ntgrl prt of th U.S. conomy of bllons of dollrs n nnul rvnu nd mploys mor thn on mllon popl. Th U.S. govrnmnt should ct lk t ws ftr 9 / 11 ttcks nd vwd wth vsbl stps to mprov scurty t rports. Whl xtrnl countrmsurs, such s Chlo nd Vglnt Egl cn provd th ncssry protcton from MANPADS, thy r not vsbl nough to th publc. Pssngrs must b bl to s n ncrsd lvl of sfty s thy do now durng th show TSA.

Assignment 9 Ths ppr thus rcommnds tht mmdtly ftr th ttck by MANPADS, tht th U.S. govrnmnt to bgn th nstllton of mufflrs Gurdn lsr housng of ll commrcl rcrft. Snc th mss nstllton of ths systms s lkly to tk n xtnsv mount of tm to complt, rcrft, wtng to b nstlld should b provdd wth dcoy systm. Ths wll b ncssry msur n ordr to offst th ngtv conomc ffcts of long-trm flght ws closd. Ths dos not ncssrly mttr f t s publcly known tht som of dcoys, s thr prsnc cn stll hv dtrrnt ffct, snc th trrorsts wll not b bl to dtrmn whch rcrft r vulnrbl. Thn thy wll probbly try to fnd vrty of wknsss n our scurty to xplot.

Concluson nd rcommndtons It s clr to vryon who works n scurty tht trrorsts rmd wth MANPADS rprsnt on of th grtst thrts to U.S. ntonl scurty. Aftr 9 / 11, scurty t rports, but not prfct, hs bcom mjor dtrrnt to trrorsts skng to ttck th rcrft ntrnlly. Wth pnchnt for soft trgts, th trrorsts r now focusd on ttckng rcrft from th outsd, whr thy cn do n qul mount of dmg n ny sho bombr.

Assignment 10 Rgrdlss countrmsurs govrnmnt dcds to nvst n should b crrd out s soon s possbl. Attcks on rcrft usng MANPADS r on th rs, spclly n Irq, whr mor nd mor trrorsts r bcomng sklld oprtors shouldr frd mssls. In ddton to rlyng on tchnology to protct th homlnd, th ffort to fnd nd dstroy mny thousnds of MANPADS r xchngd on th ntrntonl blck mrkt should b doubld. In ddton, th U.S. govrnmnt nd ts lls must dvlop bttr systm to nsur tht tns of thousnds of dngrous wpons n thr rsnls n ordr to prvnt thr fllng nto th wrong hnds. Whl ffctv countrmsurs r rthr xpnsv, f polcymkrs wr to look t conomc dt rltng to th consquncs of succssful ttcks by MANPADS n th Untd Stts, thy wll clrly s tht th cost of ncton fr outwghs th smll nvstmnt n bttr scurty. Rqurd tchnologs currntly xst to combt th thrt of MANPADS, whch cn now b don n cost ffctv mnnr. Ths s th concluson of ths rtcl tht th systm s quppd wth Chlo usng lsr ntrfrnc Gurdn UAV th bst choc to protct Amrc's rports. Tchnology nvolvd n th projct Chlo hs lrdy bn dvlopd nd provn ts ffctvnss n ths r. UAVs cn lso

Assignment 11 covr much grtr r thn trrstrl systms, whch wll b spclly mportnt for lrg rports such s Nw York or Rgn. Whl th systms Vglnt Egl, s lkly to hv fwr fls postvs bcus of ts mny ndpndnt snsors, th systm Chlo smply mor cost ffctv. Just lk 9 / 11 Commsson rcommndd, w must bgn to mk bttr us of our mgnton whn t coms to homlnd scurty. Tkng proctv stps now to protct th commrcl vton s lkly to sv us from potntl conomc dsstr nd possbly dtr trrorsts from ttmptng to MANPADS ttcks n th futur.

Assignment 12

Rfrncs

Bolkom, C., Elias, B., Feickert, A., Congressional Research Service Report for Congress: Homeland Security: Protecting Airliners from Terrorist Missiles, 2003 Chow, James, Chiesa, James, Dreyer, Paul, Eisman, Paul, Karasik, Theodore, Kvitky, Joel, Lingel, Sherrill, Ochmanek, David, Shirly, Chad, RAND Corporation, Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the ShouldFired Missile Threat, 2005 Fisher, Alan, Raytheon to Demonstrate Aircraft Protection System Under DHS Contract, onGlobalSecurit y.org, October 2006 Johnson, Mathew, Cost an Issue as S&T Readies to Test Aircraft Protection Drones, in Congressional Quarterly, April 20th, 2007 Raytheon, Vigilant Eagle Airport Security System Raytheon, Directory of US Military Rockets and Missiles: FIM-92 Stinger, http://www.designationsystems.net/dusrm/m-92.html Scheid, Bob, Chloe Takes Flight Over US Airports, inAeronautica, April 3rd, 2007 Schroeder, Matt, MANPADS Proliferation, January 2004

Assignment 13 US State Department, The MANPADS Menace: Combating the Threat to Global Aviation from Man-Portable Air Defense Systems, http://www.state.gov/t/pm/rls/fs/53558.htm Weinberger, Sharon, Drones vs. Missiles, in Wired Magazine, March 7th, 2007 Whitmire, James, Shoulder Launched Missiles: The Ominous Threat To Commercial Aviation, in The Counterproliferation Papers, Future Warfare Series No.37, USAF Counterproliferation Center, Air University, (Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama)

Assignment 14