SPECIAL STATISTICS: 2012-13 STATE ELECTIONS

General Election 2012 to the Legislative Assembly of Himachal Pradesh

single day poll for 68 assembly seats in Himachal Pradesh was held on 4 November 2012. The election witnessed high participation of the electorate. 73.5% of the over 46 lakh registered voters turned out to vote, up by almost 2 percentage points since the last assembly election (Table 1A). This was the states second highest voter turnout ever, the highest being 74.5% during the 2003 assembly election. The turnout of women voters at 76.2% exceeded that of men voters by nearly 7 percentage points. Both men and women registered a higher voter turnout than the previous assembly election. This election also saw an increase in the number of contestants. There were 459 candidates in the fray, up from 336 in 2007. The Outcome

solid two-party competition in the state were not very successful. Apart from the Congress and the BJP, none of the parties in the fray touched the one lakh gure in terms of total votes secured. The new entrant, Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP), led by former BJP leader Maheshwar Singh, could manage
Table 1A: Summary Electoral Participation Electorate, Turnout and Number of Candidates Compared to the Assembly Election (2007)
Assembly Election 2012 Change from 2007 (%)

Total electorate Male electorate Female electorate Other electorate Total voters Total turnout Male turnout Female turnout Number of candidates

46,08,359 23,73,378 22,34,980 1 33,87,390 73.51% 69.39 % 76.20 % 459

+0.09 +1.56 -1.44 +2.73 +1.90 +1.03 +2.19 +36.61

The nal outcome of the 2012 Himachal Pradesh assembly election followed the pattern of government alteration that the state has witnessed in every assembly election held since 1990. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost power to the opposition Congress in yet another direct face-off even though a majority of the electoral contests were multicornered. Both the parties put up candidates on all 68 constituencies of the state with the Congress ending up winning 36 seats, 13 more than the 2007 assembly election and one more than the majority mark (Table 1B). The BJP on the other hand won 26 seats, 15 fewer than the last assembly election. In terms of vote share, the Congress secured 42.8% of the votes, a gain of nearly 4 percentage points since 2007. The BJP saw its vote share slide by over 5 percentage points to 38.5%. Together, the BJP and the Congress accounted for 81% of the valid votes polled. This was just 1 percentage point less than what it had been in 2007, indicating that the efforts by other parties to make inroads into the
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For electorate, voters and candidates, the change is in percentage with 2007 as the base. Change in turnout is computed in percentage points compared to the turnout in 2007. Total voters and total turnout includes both EVM votes and Postal votes. However, the male and female turnout percentages do not include Postal votes as there is no gender break-up of Postal votes available. Source: Figures available from Election Commission of India statistical reports http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/ StatisticalReports/SE_2012/StatReport_Vidhan_Sabha_ Elections_2012_HP.pdf, accessed on 8 March 2013; Data aggregated and recomputed by CSDS data unit.

to win only one seat and garnered merely 2.4% of the votes. Meanwhile, the HLPs pre-election allies, the Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPI(M), drew a blank in terms of seats. Independent candidates emerged winners on ve seats, with at least three of them being disgruntled BJP rebels and one a Congress rebel. Parties like the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC) which were contesting for the rst time in the state failed to create any impact. But the biggest loser was the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Not only did it lose the only seat it had won last time but its vote share also dropped drastically by 6 percentage points compared to 2007. Much of this decline can be attributed to the fact that senior leader Vijay Singh Mankotia was no longer with the BSP and had in fact rejoined the Congress on the eve of the 2012 election. The performance of women candidates was worse than last time. Only three women out of the 34 who contested were victorious. In 2007, 25 women had contested the election of which ve had made it to the assembly. The 1998 election had seen six women candidates getting elected to the Himachal assembly, which is the highest ever in the state. Kingmaker Kangra Like the BJP last time, the Congress Party too emerged on top in both, the west Himachal region (mostly the lower area

Table 1B: Summary Results: Seats Contested, Won and Votes Secured by Major Parties in 2012, Compared to the Assembly Election (2007)
Seats Contested Seats Won Gain/Loss of Seats since 2007 Vote Share (%) Vote % Per Seat Contested Vote Swing since 2007 (% Points)

Indian National Congress (INC/Cong) 68 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 68 Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 13 Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 66 Samajwadi Party (SP) 15 Communist Party of India (CPI) 6 Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) 16 Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) 36 All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 25 Himachal Swabhiman Party (HSP) 16 Other parties 25 Independents 105 Total 459

36 26 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 68

+13 -15 0 -1 0 0 0 +1 0 0 0 +2 0

42.81 38.47 0.36 1.17 0.11 0.19 1.16 2.40 0.49 0.19 0.51 12.14 100

42.81 38.47 1.95 1.21 0.52 2.16 4.93 4.48 1.33 0.84 1.36

+3.91 -5.31 +0.29 -6.09 -0.03 0.00 +0.59 +2.40 +0.49 +0.19 -0.61 +4.17 0

(1) Other parties in 2012 include the Shiv Sena (SHS), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Indian Justice Party (IJP) and other smaller parties. Other parties in 2007 included LJP, Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (ABHM), Adarsh Political Party (APP), Bharatiya Bahujan Party (BHBP) and Rashtriya Garib Dal (RGD). (2) HLP, HSP and AITC did not contest in 2007. Source: Detailed constituency level results from Election Commission of India statistical report of 2012 Himachal Pradesh Assembly poll http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/StatisticalReports/SE_2012/StatReport_Vidhan_Sabha_Elections_2012_ HP.pdf; accessed on 8 March 2013; Data aggregated and recomputed by CSDS data unit.

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SPECIAL STATISTICS: 2012-13 STATE ELECTIONS

Table 2A: Turnout and Performance of Major Parties by Regions and Districts
Region/District Total Seats Turnout % Congress Won Vote % BJP Won Vote % HLP Won Vote % Others Won Vote %

West Himachal Chamba Kangra Hamirpur Una Bilaspur East Himachal Lahaul and Spiti Kullu Mandi Solan Sirmaur Shimla Kinnaur Total

34 5 15 5 5 4 34 1 4 10 5 5 8 1 68

71.6 75.8 70.6 68.0 73.3 72.9 75.6 75.7 79.5 76.1 77.4 79.9 69.3 74.2 73.5

18 2 10 1 3 2 18 1 2 5 2 1 6 1 36

42.6 45.0 40.7 38.8 46.9 45.9 43.0 60.3 37.8 43.1 39.0 33.9 53.3 54.1 42.8

13 3 3 3 2 2 13 0 1 5 3 3 1 0 26

39.2 42.3 32.4 47.9 45.3 43.0 37.7 38.4 34.5 41.6 39.0 47.3 26.2 37.7 38.5

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

1.8 0.0 3.1 1.0 0.8 1.2 3.0 0.0 13.5 1.0 1.1 2.3 1.5 5.8 2.4

3 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5

16.4 12.7 23.8 12.2 7.0 9.9 16.2 1.2 14.2 14.3 20.9 16.5 19.0 2.4 16.3

Others in this table and in Table 2B include other smaller parties and independents. Source: As in Table 1B.

of the state) and the east Himachal region (mainly the upper area). The two regions have 34 seats each and in both the Congress led the BJP, 18 seats to 13 (Table 2A). While in east Himachal, a traditional Congress stronghold, the overall vote difference between the Congress and BJP was over 5 percentage points in the formers favour, in west Himachal too, the Congress was ahead of the BJP by over 3 percentage points.

This is an area where the BJP has done well normally. A further breakdown of regions into districts helps us understand the verdict even better. Kangra district in west Himachal with 15 seats, the highest for any district in the state, saw an impressive sweep by the Congress with the party winning 10 seats and securing 41% votes. The BJP could win only three seats with a vote share of 32%. The remaining

two seats were won by independent candidates, both BJP rebels. One of them is the wife of Kangra Member of Parliament (MP) Rajan Sushant, who was suspended from the BJPs primary membership earlier in 2012 for anti-party activities. In fact, the presence of rebels cost the BJP as many as ve seats in the district, a detailed analysis of which has been carried out later in this article. Shanta Kumar, former chief minister and senior BJP leader, who is known for having considerable clout in Kangra and who had an upper hand in distributing election tickets in the region, failed to deliver for his party. All the nine candidates elded by him lost the election, some by huge margins. On the other hand, all the three BJP candidates who won in the district were close to Prem Kumar Dhumal. Clearly, Kumars chronic differences with Dhumal which were kept under check in 2007, seem to have come to the fore once again costing the party heavily in this politically crucial region. It has been noticed since the past several elections that the party that sweeps

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SPECIAL STATISTICS: 2012-13 STATE ELECTIONS

Table 2B: Turnout and Performance of Major Parties by Reserved and General Constituencies
Categories Total Seats Turnout % Congress Won Vote % BJP Won Vote % HLP Won Vote % Others Won Vote %

SC ST General Total

17 3 48 68

72.1 75.1 73.9 73.5

10 3 23 36

45.4 53.8 41.5 42.8

6 0 20 26

39.1 40.8 38.2 38.5

0 0 1 1

3.2 2.2 2.1 2.4

1 0 4 5

12.3 3.2 18.2 16.3

As per Census 2001, SCs constitute 24.7% and STs constitute 4% of Himachal Pradeshs total population. Available from http://www.censusindia.gov.in/Tables_Published/A-Series/A-Series_links/t_00_005.aspx (Accessed on 18 March 2013). Source: As in Table 1B.

Table 2C: Seats Where Presence of Party Rebels Damaged Congress and BJP
Constituency District Rebel Winner Runner Up Congress Vote BJP Vote Rebel Vote

Chamba Nurpur Indora (SC) Fatehpur Jawali Kangra Manali Balh (SC) Sujanpur Arki Kasauli (SC) Paonta Sahib

Chamba Kangra Kangra Kangra Kangra Kangra Kullu Mandi Solan Solan Sirmaur

Cong rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind Cong rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind BJP rebel as Ind Cong rebel as Ind Cong rebel as AITC Cong rebel as Ind

BJP Congress BJP rebel Congress Congress BJP rebel BJP Congress Congress BJP rebel BJP BJP

Congress BJP rebel Congress BJP BJP Congress Congress BJP rebel BJP Congress Congress Congress

17,780 26,546 1,40,55 18,662 23,798 14,069 14,447 24,258 20,043 10,508 15,136 19,936 6,152

19,714 6,868 11,624 11,445 19,364 11,700 17,645 12,076 16,927 8,853 17,211 19,960 22,923

10,813 23,179 21,424 9,335 10,924 14,632 14,346 15,268 9,023 24,674 10,477 791 23,713

commanding lead (Table 2B). All the three ST constituencies, namely, Kinnaur, Lahaul and Spiti, and Bharmour, were won by the Congress, which is a complete reversal of 2007 when the BJP had taken all of them. Meanwhile, on the SC seats, which account for one-fourth of the total assembly strength, the Congress raced ahead of its rival winning 10 out of the 17 such seats. Given that the contest on SC seats had been quite evenly matched ve years ago, this too is an important turnaround. SCs comprise almost 25% of Himachals total population. Rebel and HLP Factor The presence of rebel candidates affected both the BJP and the Congress. While it is true that the BJP suffered the most due to the rebel factor, the damage inicted to the Congress by its own rebels was no less. The presence of party rebels appears to have cost the BJP eight seats and the Congress ve (Table 2C). The BJP lost the Nurpur, Fatehpur, Jawali, Sundar Nagar and Balh seats by margins that were lesser than the votes polled by party rebels contesting as independents. In Indora, Kangra and Sujanpur, the party rebel emerged as the winner. The Congress lost the Chamba, Manali and Arki seats by margins lower than the votes secured by party rebels ghting as independents. In Kasauli, the party lost the seat by a wafer-thin margin of 24 votes to the BJP mainly because of the presence of a former Congress legislators son contesting on a Trinamool Congress ticket. In Paonta Sahib, a Congress rebel contesting as an independent won the seat. As far as the damage inicted by the HLP is concerned, the partys chief Maheshwar Singh (a former BJP MP) won from the Kullu constituency, and the partys candidates got more votes than the margin by which the BJP lost to the Congress in three constituencies, namely, Baijnath, Anni and Chintpurni. There were no seats where the HLP candidates got more votes than the margin by which a Congress candidate lost to the winner.
[Pre-poll and post-poll surveys were conducted by CSDS in Himachal Pradesh and the marginals for the same will be uploaded soon on the Lokniti website www.lokniti.org.]

Sundar Nagar Mandi

Hamirpur BJP rebel as Ind

Congress rebel BJP

Ind means independent. Source: As in Table 1B; information on rebels gathered from newspaper reports.

Kangra goes on to form the government in Shimla, and the same seems to have happened this time as well. The failure of the BJP government to take any decision on the demand for carving out three smaller districts from the existing Kangra district may have also been a contributing factor to the partys disastrous performance in Kangra. Overall, in terms of vote share, the Congress led the BJP in four out of the ve districts that form the west Himachal region, including the district of Bilaspur which had voted for the BJP in a big way in 2007. Only in Hamirpur district, which is Dhumals home ground, did the BJP do much better than the Congress in terms of both vote share and seats, but here too its vote share came down considerably. In Chamba district, while the BJP edged out the Congress in terms of seats, the latter secured a higher vote share. In Una district, which had witnessed campaigning by several political luminaries including the prime minister, the Congress won three of the ve seats. In the east Himachal region, the Congress retained its hold over the Shimla district, its traditional bastion, by winning six of the eight seats, one more than
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the last election. It however lost the Shimla seat yet again to the BJP, largely because of the performance of the CPI(M) candidate who came third and seems to have taken away votes that may have gone to the Congress. One seat, Chopal, was won by an independent. The Congress also made a comeback in the Solan district where it had been wiped out in the 2007 election. However, in neighbouring Sirmaur district, a traditional stronghold of the Congress, the party fared poorly, winning just one out of the ve seats on offer. The BJP on the other hand registered an impressive result winning three seats and taking a huge lead over the Congress in terms of vote share. Mandi district witnessed an equal contest with both the BJP and the Congress winning ve seats each. In nearby Kullu district, where the Congress had failed to win a single seat ve years ago, the party won two of the four seats this time. While the contest between the Congress and the BJP on non-reserved constituencies (general) was much closer, it was on the constituencies reserved for scheduled caste (SC) and scheduled tribe (ST) candidates, that the Congress outperformed the BJP and established a

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