Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

Highlights
World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.2 percent for 2013. Indias Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in the last month. Fitch credit ratings shift India to stable growth outlook from negative. European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of cut in global growth forecast by the World Bank. It is expected that global economy will grow by 2.2 percent in current year from previous estimates of 2.4 percent in January and is below the growth of 2.3 percent in 2012. Indias Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 9.31 percent in May as against a rise of 9.39 percent in April. Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April from rise of 2.5 percent a month ago. Manufacturing output also dropped and was at 2.8 percent in April as compared to increase of 3.2 percent in prior month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5760.2 19041.1 14995.23 1612.5 16024.0 1959.2 58497.8 13289.3 95.88 1391.80 21.80 7133.50 102.09 0.0 Prev. day -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 -1.5 0.2 -0.2 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.9

as on June 12, 2013 WoW -2.8 -2.7 0.2 0.2 -5.6 0.0 10.8 -0.1 2.3 -1.7 -3.0 -4.1 2.4 MoM -3.7 -3.3 -1.8 -1.3 -9.0 -0.5 6.8 -13.6 1.7 0.3 -3.7 -9.1 -1.5 YoY 14.0 4.1 19.3 21.8 24.3 2.0 5.1 54.7 15.1 -13.7 -24.7 -3.3 -0.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of expectations that Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program. However, sharp downside in currency was cushioned as a result of weak global markets which lead to increase in demand for low-yielding currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.75 and closed at 80.95 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.95 57.82 57.89 57.95 Prev. day -0.2 0.9 -1.16 -1.04 WoW -2.0 -1.7 1.61 1.72

as on June 12, 2013 MoM -3.6 -5.5 5.29 5.43 YoY 1.9 -3.9 3.58 3.70

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of Fitch credit rating agency changed the economy growth outlook to stable from negative. Further, selling of dollars from exporters also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the Rupee was capped as a result of weak global and domestic markets. Additionally, unfavorable industrial production data from the country prevented further positive movement in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 57.72 and closed at 57.82 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.138.90 crores ($29.36 million) as on 12th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.83,344.0 crores ($15,382.30 million) till 12th June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, cut in the growth forecast for India by World Bank to 5.7 percent will add downside pressure on currency. However, sharp downside in currency will be cushioned on the back of weakness in DX along with stable economic growth for India by Fitch credit ratings.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 13, 2013 Support 57.80/57.70 Resistance 58.20/58.35

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable industrial production data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3359 and closed at 1.3336 against the dollar on Wednesday. However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of weak global markets. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.1 percent in Q1 of 2013. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.4 percent in May. French CPI rose by 0.1 percent in May as against a decline of 0.1 percent in April. European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April from earlier rise of 0.9 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets. Additionally, forecast by the World Bank that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Euro Zone region will contract by 0.6 percent and growth in the region will also decline by 0.1 percent in 2013. This will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the Euro. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 76.70/76.50 77.05/77.20 valid for June 13, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3336 77.13 76.8 Prev. day 0.2 0.3 -1.16

as on June 12, 2013 WoW 1.9 -3.6 3.31 MoM 2.8 -8.4 7.62 YoY 6.2 -12.3 10.00

76.9

-1.14

3.36

7.70

10.07

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5677 90.721 90.51 Prev. day 0.20 -0.60 -0.54

as on June 12, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable Claimant Count Change data from the country acted as a positive factor for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5699 and closed at 1.5677 against dollar on Wednesday. Sharp upside in currency was prevented on account of weak global markets. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in May as against a previous fall of 11,800 in April. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.3 percent in April from earlier increase of 0.6 percent a month ago. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 7.8 percent in the month of April. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, cut in global growth forecast by World Bank will add downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in the DX will restrict sharp fall in the Sterling Pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for June 13, 2013 Support 90.40/90.20 Resistance 90.70/91.0

WoW 1.8 3.82 3.60

MoM 2.5 7.71 7.07

YoY 1.1 4.42 4.32

90.61

-0.42

3.70

7.19

4.46

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated marginally 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 95.13 and closed at 96.0 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to increase in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 13, 2013 Support 59.70/59.54 Resistance 60.10/60.25 Last 96 0.6056 59.93 59.93 Prev day 0.0 -0.15 -0.63 -0.61 as on June 12, 2013 WoW -3.1 5.63 4.75 4.75 MoM -5.7 12.25 10.73 10.74 YoY 20.9 -13.70 -14.61 -14.60

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 13, 2013

Indicator ECB Monthly Bulletin MPC Member Tucker Speaks Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Country Euro UK US US US US US Time (IST) 1:30pm 5:45pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 0.3% 0.4% 354K 0.1% 0.3% Previous -0.2% 0.1% 346K -0.5% 0.0% Impact Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium

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