Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 11

Capitol Area Energy, Inc.

,
July 4, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for August on the NYMEX ended $ 0.188 higher last Thursday to settle at $ 13.577 per www.capitolareaenergy.com
MMBtu, propelled by two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and a smaller-than-expected build in US storage
ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend. Traders were tracking two storm systems in the Atlantic, although
neither storm appeared likely to disrupt energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico. Wind conditions were NATURAL GAS PRICES
unfavorable for further development, according to the NHC. Natural gas futures also received a boost Thursday
from EIA data showing a smaller-than-expected injection into storage. Traders also continued to watch forecasts NYMEX Last Change
of above-normal temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast over the next two weeks. The hot weather is
expected to create greater demand for natural gas cooling. The National Weather Service was predicting above- August 08 13.58 +0.19
normal temperatures for most of the US from July 8th through July 16th. Last week, the EIA reported a storage 03 Month Strip 13.65 +0.19
injection of 85 Bcf, somewhat less than was expected, compared to an injection of 84 Bcf a year ago. The
reported showed a total storage level of 2.118 Tcf is now 57 Bcf below the 5-year average. For this week, look for 06 Month Strip 13.96 +0.20
an injection of about 85 to 95 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $ 14.490, with minor at $ 13.735,
12 Month Strip 13.33 +0.19
while major support is seen at $ 10.530 and minor at $ 13.389.
18 Month Strip 13.01 +0.18

NYMEX Historical Natural Gas Prices

2005 2006 2007 2008 July 2008 Gas Prices


Point Price
15.00 NYMEX 13.105
Houston Ship Channel 12.84
10.00 Waha Hub 11.81

5.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
Region Bcf Change
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D East 1116 57
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 West 299 10
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32 Prod 703 18

2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17 Total 2118 85
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11
◄ LINKS ►
If you are interested in receiving
Crude Oil Falls After Iran Signals Confidence in electricity bids, simply complete our
Nuclear Talks Letter of Authorization and fax it
Crude oil fell after Iran's foreign minister expressed confidence in talks with western governments on the country's back to 512-266-4712
nuclear program. Discussions are ``in a new environment with a new approaching perspective,'' Foreign Minister Click Here!
Manouchehr Mottaki said in an interview with CNN yesterday, adding that ``new approaches'' are possible in Iran's LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
relations with the U.S. Oil reached a record $145.85 on July 3 on speculation any attack on Iran may disrupt
exports from OPEC's second-biggest producer. ``The market is looking a little bit softer this morning as oil breaks
below its recent trading range and cooler heads prevail for the time being between Iran and the west,'' said If you are currently under contract
Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. Crude oil for August delivery traded at an would like notification of
$142.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:27 a.m. London time. On July 4, the contract dropped
natural gas or electricity rates,
as low as $1.59 to $143.70 a barrel in electronic trading. Contracts from July 4 will be settled today because of the
please sign up to receive future
U.S. Independence Day holiday. Oil also declined as the euro fell to the lowest level in more than a week against
prices.
the dollar, dimming the appeal of commodities used to hedge declines in the U.S. currency. The euro fell to
$1.5624 against the dollar, the lowest level since June 25, before trading at $1.5623 as of 7:58 a.m. in London. Click Here!
Brent crude oil for August settlement was at $143.33 a barrel, down $1.09, on London's ICE Futures Europe NATURAL GAS &
exchange at 10:27 a.m. London time. Futures climbed to a record $146.69 on July 3. Hormuz Strait Iran will close
ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
the Strait of Hormuz, through which the bulk of Middle East oil is shipped, if the country is attacked, state-run Fars
news agency reported July 5, citing a military commander. President George W. Bush said yesterday the U.S. will
keep pressing Iran to stop enriching uranium. Iran must heed ``the just demands of the world to verifiably suspend
its enrichment program,'' Bush said in Toyako, Japan. The fewest Americans in three years likely traveled over the
July 4th weekend as record gasoline prices and a slowing economy forced consumers to curtail spending, MCPE AVERAGE
according to AAA, the largest U.S. motoring group. The number of people taking trips of at least 50 miles (80
kilometers) from home over the holiday weekend will fall 1.3 percent to 40.5 million, AAA said. Chakib Khelil, ERCOT Ave Change
president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said yesterday he doesn't expect prices to fall Houston 87.28 -16.65
anytime soon because of ``big demand'' in India and China. Record oil prices weren't related to supply and they
have surged mostly because the ``U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to boost the American economy, North 87.28 -16.65
which weakened the dollar,'' said Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister.
South 87.28 -16.65
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. West 87.28 -16.65
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
July 18, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for August rose $ 0.033 Friday to settle at $ 10.57 per MMBtu, ahead of the weekend amid www.capitolareaenergy.com
concern weather systems in the Caribbean and Atlantic may soon develop into storms and curb production from
offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. A system in the Caribbean may become a hurricane the National Hurricane
Center in Miami said. Four of five storm models illustrated by Weather Underground show the storm moving into the NATURAL GAS PRICES
Gulf. Natural gas futures are 41% higher so far this year. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita curtailed Gulf of Mexico gas
production, helping drive prices to $ 15.78 per MMBtu in December 2005, the highest ever. Colorado State University NYMEX Last Change
meteorologists on June 3 reaffirmed their April prediction of eight Atlantic hurricanes this season. Half will be major,
meaning they pack winds 111 miles per hour or greater. Natural gas for delivery in January 2009 is trading at a August 08 10.57 +0.03
premium of $ 1.03. Last week, the EIA reported a storage injection of 104 Bcf, more than what was expected, 03 Month Strip 10.65 +0.03
compared to an injection of 76 Bcf a year ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.312 Tcf are now 49 Bcf
below the 5-year average. For this week, look for an injection of about 90 to 100 Bcf. For this week, major resistance 06 Month Strip 11.02 +0.02
is seen at $ 11.110, with minor at $ 10.670, while major support is seen at $ 7.525 and minor at $ 10.475.
12 Month Strip 10.82 +0.01
18 Month Strip 10.77 -0.00
NYMEX Historical Natural Gas Prices

2005 2006 2007 2008

July 2008 Gas Prices


15.00
Point Price
10.00
NYMEX 13.105
5.00 Houston Ship Channel 12.84
Waha Hub 11.81
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D

2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
EIA GAS STORAGE
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17 Region Bcf Change
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 East 1177 68
West 314 11

Accuweather Update for Dolly and Cristobal Prod 717 25

Tropical Storm Cristobal, as of 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday, was at 36.1 north, 73.9 west, or about 110 miles northeast of Total 2208 104
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm has maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts. The tropical storm
is slowly moving to the northeast at 9 mph and it has a central pressure of 1004 mb or 29.65 inches. Cristobal will
continue to move to the northeast through Monday and could pick up forward speed later in the day or at night as it
starts to get picked up by an upper-level trough that will be crossing the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Dry air to the
◄ LINKS ►
north of Cristobal slowed its development during the day on Sunday. However, latest satellite loops show convection If you are interested in receiving
blowing up to the south of Cristobal and closer to the center of circulation and with warm waters of the Gulf stream and electricity bids, simply complete our
low shear in its path, it could intensify some. Cristobal will continue on a northeast path toward the Canadian Maritimes Letter of Authorization and fax it
on Monday night and Tuesday, probably passing just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday night and it could cause a blast of back to 512-266-4712
wind and rain across these areas. By this point, Cristobal should lose its tropical characteristics. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on
Monday, Tropical Storm Dolly was near 21.3 degrees north and 87.4 tracking to the northwest at 15 mph and has Click Here!
maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars or 29.77 inches. A LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
tropical storm warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the border of Belize to Campeche Mexico. A
tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the border of Mexico. Despite these
watches and warnings we believe that the impact on the southern and eastern side of the storm will be fairly minimal for If you are currently under contract
the rest of the storm. This means that Belize and the eastern Yucatan will not have much more concerns. Atmospheric an would like notification of
conditions continue to improve in the path of Dolly as an upper-level low to the west of the system quickly retreats natural gas or electricity rates,
toward the Bay of Campeche, and latest satellite loop confirms this showing a blossoming area of convection just to the please sign up to receive future
north of the center of circulation. Dolly seems to be reorganizing a little farther north, although still interacting with land prices.
will remain on the weaker end of the tropical storm range. As Dolly moves over water again later on Monday, further Click Here!
strengthening is likely. The current track will place Dolly onshore on Wednesday around the Texas/Mexico border. Since
Dolly has not moved over land as much as previously expected, we are now looking for the storm to strengthen to a NATURAL GAS &
Category 2 and it could even reach a 3 if it slows its westward movement. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will be ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
strengthening over the central Rockies into the southern Plains mid to late week and would tend to steer Dolly deeper
into Texas or northern Mexico on Thursday and Friday. Dolly will bring heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through the day on Monday and rainfall may be another 2-4 inches. We are concerned that
Dolly has the potential to cause damaging winds and life threatening widespread flooding across South Texas and
MCPE AVERAGE
northern Mexico. Elsewhere, there is a tropical wave along 67 west, south of 18 north, tracking west at 15-20 mph that
will continue to be watched over the next few days. Currently, it has no deep convection associated with it, however, it is ERCOT Ave Change
bringing a few showers to parts of the Lesser Antilles. There is also a weak low that has formed just to the south of
Bermuda. There is little convection associated with the low and conditions are not favorable for further development. Houston 75.08 -12.25
Another wave is around 43 west and moving 15-20 mph westward. No development is expected from this system. We'll North 75.08 -12.25
have to watch a stronger wave move moving off the coast of Africa in the next day or so. By AccuWeather.com
Meteorologist Matthew Rinde South 75.08 -12.25
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. West 75.08 -12.25
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
July 25, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for August on the NYMEX dropped $ 0.239 lower Friday to settle at $ www.capitolareaenergy.com
9.084 per MMBtu, declining to a 5-month low ahead of the weekend after the weekly EIA
storage report showed inventories increased more than expected last week. Sales of new NATURAL GAS PRICES
homes in the US decreased to a 530,000 pace from 533,000 in May, higher than previously NYMEX Last Change
estimated, the Commerce Department said. Natural gas prices have declined 32% this month
and last week fell below the 200-day moving average of $ 9.472 for the first time since August 08 9.08 -0.24
December 2007. Crude is going to be the overriding factor for where natural gas goes from 03 Month Strip 9.14 -0.25
here. Crude oil prices have slipped about $ 24 per barrel from the $ 147.27 record on July 06 Month Strip 9.53 -0.24
11th. US fuel demand averaged 19.9 million bpd last week, the lowest since January 2007.
12 Month Strip 9.54 -0.22
US gasoline demand fell 3.3% from a year ago. Last week, the EIA reported a storage
injection of 84 Bcf, somewhat more than expected, compared to an injection of 70 Bcf a year 18 Month Strip 9.63 -0.20
ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.396 Tcf are now 22 Bcf below the 5-year
average. For this week, look for an injection of about 70 to 80 Bcf. For this week, major
resistance is seen at $ 12.515, with minor at $ 9.300, while major support is seen at $ 7.565 July 2008 Gas Prices
and minor at $ 8.985.
Point Price
NYMEX Historical Natural Gas Prices NYMEX 13.105
2005 2006 2007 2008 Houston Ship Channel 12.84
Waha Hub 11.81
15.00

10.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
5.00
Region Bcf Change
0.00 East 1308 63
J F M A M J J A S O N D
West 336 11
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18
Prod 752 10
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17 Total 2396 84
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11

◄ LINKS ►
If you are interested in receiving
electricity bids, simply complete our
Tropical Update by AccuWeather.com – Atlantic Basin Letter of Authorization and fax it
back to 512-266-4712
Remains Quiet Click Here!
The Atlantic Basin is relatively quiet and is expected to remain that way over the next 48 LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
hours. A high amplitude and sheared tropical wave with a weak area of low pressure was
located along 52 west and south of 20 north. It is moving west at 15 knots. The area of low If you are currently under contract
pressure is located along the northern end of the wave near 25 north and it is causing little in an would like notification of
the way of showers and thunderstorms. The low should track to the northwest into the central natural gas or electricity rates,
Atlantic and continue to be sheared, so it has little chance to develop while the wave continues please sign up to receive future
on to the west. Another wave is located along 36 west and south of 20 north and it is moving prices.
west at 20 knots. This system has some weak convection on its southern edge, but there is Click Here!
considerable dry Saharan air over the northern parts of the wave, which is preventing NATURAL GAS &
convection from extending northward. The dry air will continue to inhibit development of this ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
system as it continues west, but it will likely bring a larger concentration of showers and
thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles around midweek. A weak tropical wave is moving
across the western Caribbean. It is located along 83 west and south of 20 north and it is
moving to the west at 15 knots. There is very little in the way of convection with this wave to MCPE AVERAGE
the north of Central America. A disorganized area of low pressure is embedded within a ERCOT Ave Change
tropical wave over western Africa, and will be emerging off the continent's west coast late Houston 77.34 7.59
today. No immediate tropical development is expected with this wave, although it will need to
North 77.34 7.59
be monitored as it continues west across the open Atlantic.
. South 77.34 7.59
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. West 77.34 7.59
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
August 1, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for September delivery on the NYMEX ended $ 0.27 higher Friday to settle at $ www.capitolareaenergy.com
9.389 per MMBtu, on short-covering ahead of the weekend as crude oil surged. Oil rallied after Israeli
Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said that Iran is on a path toward a major breakthrough in its
nuclear program that he termed unacceptable. Natural gas fell 32% in July, the biggest monthly decline NATURAL GAS PRICES
since March 2005, but is still 48% higher than a year ago. The Gas-Oil Price Ratio fell 11% in July, the NYMEX Last Change
largest one-month decline since December 2004, widening the price ratio between the fuels. Based on
Friday’s prices, the ratio is 13.3-1. It averaged about 11-to-1 for the half of the year, which indicates gas September 08 9.39 +0.27
near $ 11.36 per MMBtu. Short positions outnumbered long positions by 100, 240 contracts on the 03 Month Strip 9.58 +0.27
NYMEX. NYMEX heating oil futures for September delivery lost $ 0.0225 to $ 3.3468 per gallon, and
September crude oil futures gained $ 1.02 to $ 125.10 per barrel Friday. Last week, the EIA reported a 06 Month Strip 9.99 +0.27
storage injection of 65 Bcf, somewhat less than expected, compared to an injection of 75 Bcf a year 12 Month Strip 9.87 +0.26
ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.461 Tcf are now 12 Bcf below the 5-year average.
For this week, look for an injection of about 70 to 80 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $ 18 Month Strip 10.04 +0.25
9.980, with minor at $ 9.390, while major support is seen at $ 7.555 and minor at $ 9.150.

NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES AUG. 2008 GAS PRICES


2005 2006 2007 2008 Point Price
NYMEX 9.213
15.00
Houston Ship Channel 9.04
10.00 Waha Hub 8.06

5.00

0.00 EIA GAS STORAGE


J F M A M J J A S O N D
Region Bcf Change
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18
East 1363 55
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17 West 346 10

2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 Prod 752 0

Total 2461 65

EDOUARD EYES NORTHERN TEXAS COASTLINE


Tropical Storm Edouard, as of 5 a.m. EDT on Monday continues toward the west at 9 mph. Tropical ◄ LINKS ►
Storm Edouard is located at 28.1 north, 90.1 west, or about 295 miles east-southeast of Galveston,
Texas. Maximum-sustained winds are at 50 mph with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is If you are interested in receiving
1002 millibars or 29.59 inches. Tropical storm warnings have been posted from the mouth of the electricity bids, simply complete
Mississippi westward to San Luis Pass, Texas. Hurricane watches have been posted and are also in effect our Letter of Authorization and
from Intracoastal City westward to Port O'Connor, Texas. Satellite images of Edouard on Monday fax it back to 512-266-4712.
morning showed most of the convection to the south and east of the center. Dry air being entrained on Click Here!
the western side of the storm has prevented convection on the northwestern side through this morning.
LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
However, the storm should take a more symmetrical appearance later on Monday as new thunderstorms
develop around the center. A large ridge of high pressure parked off to the north of Eduoard will be the
steering mechanism for the system over the next couple of days. This ridge should steer the storm If you are currently under
westward toward the Texas coast. Landfall, as either a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane is contract and would like
expected to occur very close to Galveston, Texas, early on Tuesday morning. Locally heavy rain for notification of natural gas or
portions of southern Louisiana and eastern Texas will be a serious threat, other than the winds. Two to electricity rates, please sign up
four inches of rain will be possible with some amounts of 6 inches or higher. Another area is associated to receive future prices.
with a tropical wave along 54 west, south of 24 north. Satellite images show a well defined 1013 mb Click Here!
surface low near 19 north, 54 west. This low is moving west at about 15 knots. As this system moves
west, it will move over increasingly warmer waters; however, the upper-level winds will be less favorable NATURAL GAS &
for development. This system will need to be watched the next few days for possible development into ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
an organized tropical system. The third area of concern is also in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave is
near 38 west, south of 15 north. Satellite images show some shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with this system, but it is not as impressive as its northern counterpart. This system is moving MCPE AVERAGE
quickly westward at about 20 knots. There is a 1010 mb low pressure center along 11 north that has ERCOT Ave Change
been identified; however, the wave still remains quite unorganized. This system will remain embedded in
Houston 117.71 19.56
an area of favorable wind shear and warm water for the next several days, so development is still a
possibility. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are monitoring a tropical wave near 77 west. This wave North 117.73 19.58
is producing showers and thunderstorms across the central Caribbean near Jamaica and eastern Cuba.
West 90.47 -7.68
Development of this wave is unlikely over the next few days.
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 116.86 18.71
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
August 11, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for September on the NYMEX ended $ 0.101 higher yesterday to settle at $ 8.349 www.capitolareaenergy.com
per MMBtu, as two storm systems in the Atlantic Ocean provided support for prices that have dropped
sharply since July. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave located about 800 miles NATURAL GAS PRICES
east of Windward Islands, with conditions favorable for gradual development. The second system is a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the African coast. Accuweather forecasts the NYMEX Last Change
storm off the Windward Islands will develop into a hurricane by the end of the week. Its likely path could September 08 8.34 +0.10
include Florida and areas of the Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas futures have plummeted since early July,
reaching Friday their lowest intra-day level since early February. The National Weather Service, until 03 Month Strip 8.52 +0.09
August 20th, predicts above-normal temperatures on the West Coast and in the Northeast, while 06 Month Strip 8.94 +0.08
Southeast and Texas are forecast to see below-normal temperatures. Last week, the EIA reported a
storage injection of 56 Bcf, somewhat less than expected, compared to an injection of 52 Bcf a year 12 Month Strip 8.98 +0.06
ago. The report showed that total storage levels are now 6 Bcf below the 5-year average. For this week, 18 Month Strip 9.21 +0.06
look for an injection of about 60 to 70 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $ 11.725, with
minor at $ 8.490, while major support is seen at $ 7.660 and minor at $ 8.250.

AUG. 2008 GAS PRICES


NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES
Point Price
2005 2006 2007 2008
NYMEX 9.213
15.00 Houston Ship Channel 9.04
Waha Hub 8.06
10.00

5.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D Region Bcf Change
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 East 1418 55
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
West 354 8
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
Prod 745 -7
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21
Total 2517 56

Oil Falls for Third Day as Dollar Reduces Appeal of Commodities By Alexander Kwiatkowski Aug. 12 ◄ LINKS ►
(Bloomberg) -- Oil fell for a third day as the dollar traded near a 5 1/2-month high against the euro,
If you are interested in receiving
limiting the appeal of commodities, and Russia called off military action in Georgia, easing concerns
electricity bids, simply complete
about regional supply disruptions. The dollar also approached a seven-month high against the yen on
our Letter of Authorization and
speculation the economic slowdown that started in the U.S. is spreading. A stronger U.S. currency makes
fax it back to 512-266-4712.
dollar- denominated commodities more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to Russia's offensive in Georgia. ``The stronger dollar is playing the Click Here!
major part of the downward movement,'' said Andy Sommer, an analyst with HSH Nordbank in Hamburg. LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
``We are below $1.50 versus the euro and that is building pressure on oil prices.'' Crude oil for
September delivery fell as much as $1.97, or 1.7 percent, to $112.48 a barrel, in after-hours electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $113.00 a barrel at 10:05 a.m. London time. If you are currently under
Yesterday, futures fell 75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $114.45 a barrel, the lowest close since May contract and would like
1. Oil has declined 23 percent from the record $147.27 reached on July 11. The dollar traded at notification of natural gas or
$1.4917 per euro as of 10:24 a.m. in London, from $1.4909 yesterday, after rising to $1.4816 earlier, electricity rates, please sign up
the highest since Feb. 26. The U.S. economy will grow at an average 0.7 percent annual pace from July to receive future prices.
through December, half the gain in the first half of the year, a Bloomberg News survey showed. China, Click Here!
the second- largest oil consumer, said yesterday imports fell in July. ``The market focus has shifted to NATURAL GAS &
the weakness in demand, and also the firmer U.S. dollar is playing a part as well,'' said David Moore, a
commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ``The Chinese economy isn't ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
growing as strong as last year.'' China's July crude-oil imports fell 7 percent from a year earlier after
global prices increased to a record, discouraging refiners from purchasing raw material to process into MCPE AVERAGE
fuels. The country's 15 biggest oil refineries increased their operating rates to boost fuel supplies for the
Beijing Summer Olympic Games that started on Aug. 8. Brent crude oil for September settlement fell as ERCOT Ave Change
much as $2.20, or 2 percent, to $110.47 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at Houston 78.19 3.44
$111.24 a barrel at 10:24 a.m. local time. It declined 66 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $112.67 a
barrel yesterday, the lowest close since May 1. North 78.16 3.62
West 78.16 5.22

To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 78.21 3.34
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
August 15, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for September on the NYMEX ended $ 0.044 lower Friday to settle at $ 8.092 per www.capitolareaenergy.com
MMBtu, on a strengthening dollar and falling demand. The dollar index, traded on ICE Futures in New
York, was up 0.7% to 77.18, its 11th consecutive daily advance. Gasoline demand was down 2.1 % in NATURAL GAS PRICES
the first seven months of the year as record prices and slower economic growth cut consumer spending,
the API said. Consumers spent more on gasoline than vehicles and parts for the time in 26 years in May NYMEX Last Change
and June, as gasoline headed for a record. Europe’s economy contracted in the 2nd quarter for the 1st September 08 8.09 -0.04
time since the introduction of the euro almost a decade ago, a report showed. European gross domestic
product fell 0.2% in the 2nd quarter from the 1st, when it increased 0.7%, the European Union statistics 03 Month Strip 8.29 -0.05
said. The global economic outlook led the OPEC to leave its forecast for 2009 oil demand growth 06 Month Strip 8.72 -0.05
unchanged at the lowest rate in seven years. The dollar gained for a 5th straight day against the euro, its
longest stretch of increases in more than two years. It rose 2.2% last week. Last week, the EIA reported 12 Month Strip 8.79 -0.05
a storage injection of 50 Bcf, somewhat less than expected, compared to an injection of 27 Bcf a year 18 Month Strip 9.03 -0.05
ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.567 Tcf are now 6 Bcf below the 5-year average.
For this week, look for an injection of about 60 to 70 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $
11.540, with minor at $ 8.220, while major support is seen at $ 7.690 and minor at $ 8.050.
AUG. 2008 GAS PRICES
NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES Point Price
NYMEX 9.213
2005 2006 2007 2008
Houston Ship Channel 9.04
15.00 Waha Hub 8.06

10.00

5.00 EIA GAS STORAGE


Region Bcf Change
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
East 1473 55
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18
West 358 4
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
Prod 736 -9
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
Total 2567 50
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21

◄ LINKS ►
FAY OVER CUBA; FLORIDA IS NEXT If you are interested in receiving
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 22.5 north, 80.9 west, or about 155 miles south- electricity bids, simply complete
southeast of Key West, Fla. Maximum-sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving our Letter of Authorization and
northwest at 12 mph. Fay is making landfall near Trinidad, Cuba, right now. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 fax it back to 512-266-4712.
inches are expected across Cuba and the northern Cayman Islands. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are
Click Here!
possible, causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Hurricane watches are in effect for much of
central Cuba, including La Habana. Additional hurricane watches are in effect for the Florida Keys as well LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
as along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge to Tarpon Springs. Tropical storm warnings are in
effect for most of Cuba as well as the Florida Keys and for southeastern Florida from Ocean Reef If you are currently under
northward to Jupiter Inlet. Tropical storm watches have been implemented north of Jupiter Beach to contract and would like
Sebastian Inlet. Fay has weakened slightly as it moves across Cuba, and will emerge into the Florida notification of natural gas or
Straits as a tropical storm on Monday. Sea surface temperatures in this region are very warm and warm electricity rates, please sign up
water runs deep in the Florida Straits. This area of deep, warm water will cause Fay to ramp up to near to receive future prices.
hurricane strength before moving closer to southwestern Florida on Monday night into Tuesday. There is
still a fairly widespread area of possible tracks according to computer models, from the southwest coast Click Here!
of Florida all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida. A more westward track would allow Fay to NATURAL GAS &
have more time in open waters, resulting in a potentially stronger storm. The farther east the storm goes, ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
the less time it will have to strengthen. It also seems more certain now that Fay will head into no-mans-
land with relatively weak steering flow midweek. This could mean a slow, erratic storm movement. Some
ideas suggest that Fay could even stall for a day or two. All interests in Florida should closely monitor MCPE AVERAGE
this storm. Our forecast track indicates the effects of Fay may be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas
ERCOT Ave Change
toward the middle of the week. Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is present along 55 west, south
of 25 north as well as 31 west, south of 18 north. Neither waves are showing signs of development Houston 55.11 -14.29
within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest that the second wave could North 55.07 -14.33
become a depression or storm early next week. Development of this system will have to be monitored.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matthew Rinde West 55.08 -14.32

To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 55.14 -14.26
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
September 3, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for October on the NYMEX dropped $ 0.635 lower yesterday to settle at $ 7.290 per www.capitolareaenergy.com
MMBtu, falling the most in more than a year on speculation production from platforms in the Gulf of
Mexico will soon resume. Royal Dutch Shell, Total and ConocoPhillips plan to continue inspecting NATURAL GAS PRICES
platforms today. Crude oil also fell on speculation the storm did minimal damage. The Gulf accounts
for about 14% of US natural gas output. The decline was the largest in percentage terms since futures NYMEX Last Change
tumbled 14% on August 20, 2007. Prices earlier touched $ 7.212, the lowest since December 28th. October 08 7.26 -0.68
Workers from more than 70% of the platforms and rigs in the Gulf were evacuated as Gustav
approached, according to the Minerals Management Service. All of the area’s 1.3 million bpd of oil and 03 Month Strip 7.72 -0.65
95% of its natural gas, or 7.06 Bcf, were shut. The dollar traded at $ 1.4509 per euro, 0.7% stronger 06 Month Strip 8.06 -0.61
than yesterday. Production outages appear likely they’re going to be fairly small, so that will make the
storage picture more bearish. Prices for natural gas are also heading for what is typically a seasonal low 12 Month Strip 8.17 -0.50
in mid-September, and after that they should go back up again. In the previous 5 years, natural gas has, 18 Month Strip 8.49 -0.44
on average, gained 19% from September 1st to December 31st. Prices fell in just one of those 5 years.
Domestic gas output is expected to increase by 8% this year on higher production from fields in Texas,
Louisiana and Wyoming, the department said in a monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. Last week, the
EIA reported a storage injection of 102 Bcf, somewhat more than expected, compared to an injection of SEPT. 2008 GAS PRICES
38 Bcf a year ago. The reported showed that total storage levels of 2.757 Tcf are now 71 Bcf above the Point Price
5-year average. For this week, look for an injection of 70 to 80 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is
seen at $ 10.830, with minor at $ 7.335, while major support is seen at $ 6.645 and minor at $ 7.210. NYMEX 8.394
Houston Ship Channel 8.06
NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES
Waha Hub 6.71
2005 2006 2007 2008

15.00 EIA GAS STORAGE


10.00 Region Bcf Change
East 1609 9
5.00
West 371 8
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D Prod 777 25

2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 Total 2757 102
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
◄ LINKS ►
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 8.39
If you are interested in receiving
electricity bids, simply complete
our Letter of Authorization and
ATTENTION TURNS TO TROPICAL STORM IKE fax it back to 512-266-4712.
IKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL
Click Here!
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE STORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
INNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW.
HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES DEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE. If you are currently under
THE ONLY OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR contract and would like
AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE notification of natural gas or
SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL electricity rates, please sign up
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF to receive future prices.
THE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. Click Here!
INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS NATURAL GAS &
STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A BUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. MCPE AVERAGE
HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL TURN. THE GFDL ERCOT Ave Change
AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE
U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE CYCLONE TO MUCH Houston 67.37 8.85
HIGHER LATITUDES. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE North 64.07 5.55
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. West 64.38 5.86

To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 69.83 11.31
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
September 5, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for October on the NYMEX ended $ 0.127 higher Friday to settle at $ www.capitolareaenergy.com
7.449 per MMBtu on forecasts that Hurricane Ike will move into the Gulf of Mexico this week.
The market was alternatively higher and lower Friday amid storm forecasts and a drop in NATURAL GAS PRICES
crude oil as a strengthening dollar cut demand for commodities. Ike may enter the Gulf of NYMEX Last Change
Mexico by tomorrow as a Category 2. Hurricane Gustav tore through the gulf last week,
forcing companies to shut offshore production, the vast majority of which has not yet been October 08 7.45 0.13
restored to service. Technical traders say recent declines close to $ 7.00 might indicate a 03 Month Strip 7.89 0.12
floor to prices may have been established. Prices slipped Friday to $ 7.023, the lowest since 06 Month Strip 8.23 0.12
last December, before closing higher. It reached $ 7.028 the previous day and also settled
12 Month Strip 8.34 0.12
higher. Last week, the EIA reported a storage injection of 90 Bcf, somewhat more than
expected, compared to an injection of 38 Bcf a year ago. The report showed that total 18 Month Strip 8.66 0.11
storage levels of 2.847 Tcf are now 102 Bcf above the 5-year average. For this week, look for
an injection of about 70 to 80 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $ 7.680, with
minor at $ 7.480, while major support is seen at $ 6.645 and minor at $ 7.380. SEPT. 2008 GAS PRICES
Point Price
NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES
NYMEX 8.394
2005 2006 2007 2008
Houston Ship Channel 8.06

15.00 Waha Hub 6.71

10.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
5.00
Region Bcf Change
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D East 1676 67

2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 West 378 7
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32 Prod 16 25
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
Total 2847 90
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 8.39

◄ LINKS ►
If you are interested in receiving
electricity bids, simply complete
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER- HURRICANE IKE our Letter of Authorization and
CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD fax it back to 512-266-4712.
OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND
Click Here!
ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
90 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND THAN INDICATED BY THE LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN
FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND If you are currently under
WOULD ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE. contract and would like
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO notification of natural gas or
RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS electricity rates, please sign up
BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES. THERE HAS BEEN to receive future prices.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND
GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE Click Here!
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. NATURAL GAS &
AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE MCPE AVERAGE
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD ERCOT Ave Change
TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO
ADJUST THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS HAVE NO SUPPORT Houston 51.78 -2.70
FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL North 51.09 -3.39
ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.
West 51.12 -3.36

To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 51.55 -2.93
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
September 15, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for October on the NYMEX ended $ 0.008 higher yesterday to settle at $ www.capitolareaenergy.com
7.374 per MMBtu, as production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico may hinder storage gains
before colder weather boosts demand. Gulf production has been mostly shut this month NATURAL GAS PRICES
because of Hurricane Ike and Gustav, spurring expectations that winter storage levels will be NYMEX Last Change
below the record of 3.5454 Tcf set last November. The bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers
signaled reduced trading in commodities and weighed on prices as the investment firm October 08 7.37 0.01
liquidated energy holdings. Chevron’s Sabine Pipe Line that it was ‘assessing the status of 03 Month Strip 7.68 0.00
the Henry Hub as well as facilities along the Sabine mainline.’ Initial reports indicate that 06 Month Strip 7.94 -0.01
flooding has had an impact on the system. Total supply loss from Ike and Gustav as of
12 Month Strip 8.02 -0.04
yesterday was 129 Bcf, according to a report by Bentek Energy. Short positions in natural gas
futures held by speculators rose to a record last week, according to the CFTC. Last week, the 18 Month Strip 8.31 -0.05
EIA reported a storage injection of 58 Bcf, about what was expected, compared to an injection
of 56 Bcf a year ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.905 Tcf are now 82 Bcf
above the 5-year average. For this week, look for an injection of about 40 Bcf to 50 Bcf. For SEPT. 2008 GAS PRICES
this week, major resistance is seen at $ 7.925, with minor at $ 7.470, while major support is
seen at $ 6.645 and minor at $ 7.315. Point Price
NYMEX 8.394
NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES Houston Ship Channel 8.06
2005 2006 2007 2008 Waha Hub 6.71

15.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
10.00
Region Bcf Change
5.00
East 1723 47
0.00 West 387 9
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Prod 795 12
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32 Total 2905 58
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 8.39
◄ LINKS ►
If you are interested in receiving
electricity bids, simply complete
our Letter of Authorization and
Crude Oil Tumbles as Wall Street Turmoil Adds to Demand fax it back to 512-266-4712.
Concern Click Here!
By Grant Smith Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil tumbled, dipping below $92 a barrel in the biggest two- LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
day drop in almost four years, on concern that turmoil on Wall Street may weaken the global economy
and reduce demand. Oil fell as much as 4.4 percent today after American International Group Inc. had
its credit rating cut, threatening efforts to raise funds to keep the insurer afloat, and Lehman Brothers If you are currently under
Holdings Inc. yesterday sought bankruptcy protection. ``The fear is that the sharp deterioration of the contract and would like
banking crisis in the U.S. will spread to the real economy and demand for oil,'' said Carsten Fritsch, a notification of natural gas or
Commerzbank AG analyst in Frankfurt. ``There's a good possibility prices will fall further before they electricity rates, please sign up
stabilize.'' Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as $4.17, or 4.4 percent, to $91.54 a barrel, the to receive future prices.
lowest intraday price since Feb. 11. It was at $92.81 at 11:14 a.m. London time on the New York Click Here!
Mercantile Exchange. Oil has declined 3.3 percent this year and dropped 37 percent from the record NATURAL GAS &
$147.27 a barrel reached on July 11. Gasoline for October delivery fell for a second day, declining as
much as 8.52 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $2.4762 a gallon in New York. Also, CME Group Inc., the world's ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
largest futures market, and its Nymex unit, said Lehman ``continues to meet all of its obligations'' and
is operating as normal. Options Clearing Corp., which guarantees all trades in the $1.6 trillion U.S. MCPE AVERAGE
options market, also said Lehman remains in good standing. Lehman Brothers has been suspended
from energy and commodities trading in London. The plunge in oil, cotton and copper led to the ERCOT Ave Change
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities erasing its gains for the year. The CRB index fell 3.3 Houston 54.53 8.67
percent to 348.26 yesterday, down 2.9 percent for the year. Gold declined as some investors sold the
precious metal to raise cash after U.S. stocks tumbled. Gold for immediate delivery fell 1 percent to North 52.46 7.26
$778.56 an ounce at 10:24 a.m. in London after earlier rising to $788.10 an ounce, the highest in a West 53.86 7.51
week. Silver for immediate delivery dropped 1.9 percent to $10.9150 an ounce.
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 52.56 7.30
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
September 19, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for October on the NYMEX ended $ 0.09 lower Friday to settle at $ 7.531 per www.capitolareaenergy.com
MMBtu, falling for a 2nd day ahead of the weekend amid speculation that production will be ample to
meet winter demand. Traders are counting on increased onshore production to bolster output and keep NATURAL GAS PRICES
prices from running higher. Domestic gas output is expected to increase by 7.8% this year, particularly
from fields in Texas and Wyoming, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. About 75% of NYMEX Last Change
the Gulf of Mexico gas output is offline because of hurricanes Gustav and Ike, a MMS report showed, October 08 7.53 -0.09
down from 78% reported Thursday. With not much demand from the weather, prices are being propped
up somewhat by the offshore outages. Crude oil has dropped 13% this month and gasoline has fallen 03 Month Strip 7.87 -0.08
16%. Last week, the EIA reported a storage injection of 67Bcf, somewhat more than expected, 06 Month Strip 8.15 -0.06
compared to an injection of 93 Bcf a year ago. The report showed that total storage levels of 2.972 Tcf
are now 61 Bcf above the 5-year average. For this week, look for an injection of 50 to 60 Bcf. For this 12 Month Strip 8.24 -0.04
week, major resistance is seen at $ 7.910, with minor at $ 7.585, while major support is seen at $ 18 Month Strip 8.53 -0.02
7.020 and minor at $ 7.455.

NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES


SEPT. 2008 GAS PRICES
2005 2006 2007 2008
Point Price
15.00 NYMEX 8.394

10.00
Houston Ship Channel 8.06
Waha Hub 6.71
5.00

0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D EIA GAS STORAGE
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 Region Bcf Change
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32
East 1771 48
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
West 399 12
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 8.39
Prod 802 7

Total 2972 67
Oil rises as investors mull US bailout
By ALEX KENNEDY,SINGAPORE — Oil prices rose Monday in Asia as investors grappled with the possible
impact on crude demand of a $700 billion U.S. proposal to buy bad mortgage debt. Light, sweet crude ◄ LINKS ►
for October delivery was up $1.32 to $105.93 a barrel, after falling as low as $103.35, in electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. On Friday, the contract rose If you are interested in receiving
$6.67 to settle at $104.55 on initial hopes the rescue plan would stabilize the U.S. financial system and electricity bids, simply complete
help boost economic growth. "There are a lot of issues to be filled in. It's an extraordinarily complex our Letter of Authorization and
situation," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. fax it back to 512-266-4712.
"The market is digesting how the package will work and the implications for the U.S. economy." U.S. Click Here!
congressional leaders endorsed the plan's main thrust, saying passage might occur in a matter of days. LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
But they also want independent oversight, protections for homeowners and constraints on excessive
executive compensation, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
pushed lawmakers, who received the package on Saturday, to approve the proposal as soon as If you are currently under
possible. The Federal Reserve also announced late Sunday that it granted a request by investment contract and would like
banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to change their status to bank holding companies, a move notification of natural gas or
that will allow the two institutions to open commercial banking subsidiaries, greatly bolstering their electricity rates, please sign up
resources. Traders were also watching news from Nigeria, where the country's main militant group in to receive future prices.
the southern oil region Sunday declared a unilateral cease-fire, ending the worst spate of militant Click Here!
attacks in years. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said it was ceasing hostilities
NATURAL GAS &
immediately after appeals from elders and politicians in the region. Three years of attacks have cut
Nigeria's oil production from 2.5 million barrels per day to around 1.5 million barrels. The group warned ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
it would launch another spate of attacks if military raided one of the group's base camps. Moore said
OPEC's decision earlier this month to cut production by 520,000 barrels a day and output shutdowns and MCPE AVERAGE
damage to oil installations caused by Hurricane Ike and Gustav would have influenced investors more if
not for the U.S. financial turmoil. "The cease-fire (in Nigeria) should be slightly bearish," Moore said. ERCOT Ave Change
"Recent supply-side news, which has been pushed to the background by other developments, has been Houston 42.15 13.27
poor." In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 1.44 cent to $2.912 a gallon, while gasoline
prices gained 1.33 cents to $2.613 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery jumped 5.1 cents to $7.48 North 42.15 13.27
per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, November Brent crude rose $1.78 to $101.40 a barrel on the ICE West 42.15 13.27
Futures exchange.
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 42.15 13.27
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com
Capitol Area Energy, Inc.,
September 26, 2008

David Babin

NATURAL GAS & ELECTRICITY 5105 Pryor Lane


Austin, Texas 78734
Phone 512-266-4710
NATURAL GAS Fax 512-266-4712
Natural gas futures for October on the NYMEX dropped $ 0.252 lower Friday to settle at $ 7.472 per www.capitolareaenergy.com
MMBtu, after it became clear that negotiations for the bailout of Wall Street by taxpayers was being
pushed into the weekend. Prices dropped after House Republicans rejected the bailout of Wall Street, NATURAL GAS PRICES
imperiling an agreement hours after an announcement that one was near. US fuel demand over the
past month was down 5.3% from last year, according to the EIA last week. The energy market is at the NYMEX Last Change
mercy of what is going on in Washington, if there isn’t an agreement, prices will drop further and October 08 7.47 -0.25
demand destruction will continue. The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8% in the 2nd
quarter, slower than the previous estimate, as consumer spending and trade contributed less to growth, 03 Month Strip 7.71 -0.25
the Commerce Department said. The revised figures are down from an estimate of 3.3% last month. 06 Month Strip 7.96 -0.22
Economists at JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley last week cut 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product
forecasts, and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned the economy may falter without the $ 12 Month Strip 8.07 -0.22
700 billion bank bailout. Last week, the EIA reported a storage injection of 51 Bcf, about what was 18 Month Strip 8.38 -0.20
expected, compared to an injection of 41 Bcf a year ago. The report showed that total storage levels of
3.0234 Tcf are now 35 Bcf above the 5-year average. For this week, look for an injection of about 60
Bcf to 70 Bcf. For this week, major resistance is seen at $ 8.085, with minor at $ 7.602, while major
support is seen at $ 7.020 and minor at $ 7.441. SEPT. 2008 GAS PRICES
Point Price
NYMEX HISTORICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES
NYMEX 8.394
2005 2006 2007 2008
Houston Ship Channel 8.06

15.00 Waha Hub 6.71

10.00

5.00
EIA GAS STORAGE
Region Bcf Change
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D East 1804 33
2005 6.21 6.29 6.30 7.32 6.75 6.12 6.98 7.65 10.85 13.91 13.83 11.18 West 411 12
2006 11.43 8.40 7.11 7.23 7.20 5.93 5.89 7.04 6.82 4.20 7.15 8.32 Prod 808 6
2007 5.84 6.92 7.65 7.56 7.51 7.59 6.93 6.11 5.43 6.42 7.27 7.17
Total 3023 51
2008 7.17 7.996 9.83 9.578 11.28 11.92 13.11 9.21 8.39

◄ LINKS ►
Oil falls to near $103 on global slowdown fears If you are interested in receiving
By ALEX KENNEDY,SINGAPORE — Oil prices fell to near $103 a barrel in Asia Monday on electricity bids, simply complete
concern that economic growth will slow across the globe despite a tentative agreement in our Letter of Authorization and
Washington on a $700 billion bailout package to stabilize the U.S. financial system. Light, fax it back to 512-266-4712.
sweet crude for November delivery was down $3.73 to $103.16 a barrel in electronic trading Click Here!
on the New York Mercantile Exchange by mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract fell Friday LETTER OF AUTHORIZATION
$1.13 to settle at $106.89. Congressional leaders and the White House agreed Sunday to a
rescue of the ailing financial industry after lawmakers insisted on sharing spending controls
with the Bush administration. The biggest U.S. bailout in history won the tentative support of If you are currently under
contract and would like
both presidential candidates and goes to the House of Representatives for a vote Monday.
notification of natural gas or
"The bailout package reduces the chance of a complete meltdown," said Victor Shum, an electricity rates, please sign up
energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "But worries on the demand side will to receive future prices.
continue to weigh on oil prices." The plan would give the administration broad power to use
Click Here!
hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to purchase devalued mortgage-related assets held by
cash-starved financial firms. Congress insisted on a stronger hand in controlling the money NATURAL GAS &
than the White House had wanted. The government would take over huge amounts of ELECTRICITY SIGN UP
devalued assets from beleaguered financial companies in hopes of unlocking frozen credit.
"It's still a crisis situation," Shum said. "The market is concerned about the depth and breadth MCPE AVERAGE
of this global downturn." Prices were also pushed down by a stronger dollar. Investors often
ERCOT Ave Change
buy crude futures as a hedge against a weakening dollar and inflation, and sell when the
dollar strengthens. The 15-nation euro fell Monday to $1.4344 from $1.4614 on Friday while Houston 41.81 2.93
the dollar rose to 106.30 yen from 106.01. "The bailout should inject confidence in the North 41.81 2.93
markets in the short-term," Shum said. "Longer term, it increases money supply, inflation and
West 41.81 2.93
likely weakens the dollar — all of which supports oil prices."
To remove your name for our mailing list, please click here. South 41.81 2.93
Questions or comments? E-mail us at newsletter@capitolareaenergy.com

You might also like