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  • 12.03 HMNDP Session4 Schubert

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    Md Shadekul Alam Milon
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    This document summarizes discussions from Day 2 of a high-level meeting on national drought policy. It addresses two questions: 1) dealing with potential changes in drought predictability, such as changing ENSO teleconnections, and 2) mechanisms to ensure effective collaboration between climate science and users of climate information. For the first question, it was noted that predictability is out of human control, but prediction tools can be improved. A comprehensive assessment of predictability is needed. For the second question, developing a global drought information system through synergy between global and regional capabilities is proposed, with components like a drought catalog, monitoring and prediction products, and case studies.

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    This document summarizes discussions from Day 2 of a high-level meeting on national drought policy. It addresses two questions: 1) dealing with potential changes in drought predictability, such as changing ENSO teleconnections, and 2) mechanisms to ensure effective collaboration between climate science and users of climate information. For the first question, it was noted that predictability is out of human control, but prediction tools can be improved. A comprehensive assessment of predictability is needed. For the second question, developing a global drought information system through synergy between global and regional capabilities is proposed, with components like a drought catalog, monitoring and prediction products, and case studies.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    17 views5 pages

    12.03 HMNDP Session4 Schubert

    Uploaded by

    Md Shadekul Alam Milon
    This document summarizes discussions from Day 2 of a high-level meeting on national drought policy. It addresses two questions: 1) dealing with potential changes in drought predictability, such as changing ENSO teleconnections, and 2) mechanisms to ensure effective collaboration between climate science and users of climate information. For the first question, it was noted that predictability is out of human control, but prediction tools can be improved. A comprehensive assessment of predictability is needed. For the second question, developing a global drought information system through synergy between global and regional capabilities is proposed, with components like a drought catalog, monitoring and prediction products, and case studies.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 5

    WMO$High$Level$Mee-ng$on$ Na-onal$Drought$Policy!

    S.!Schubert! NASA/GSFC!

    11#15!March!2013,!Geneva! Day!2:!Session!IV! Drought!Predic@on!and!Predictability:!Future!Prospects!

    Ques-on$1:$Dealing$with$poten-al$changes$in$predictability$ (e.g.,$ENSO$teleconnec-ons)!
    Dis$nguish)between)predic$on)tools)and)predictability)
    Tools)(we)control):)applicability!of)!empirical/sta@s@cal!versus!physically# based!models!in!a!changing!climate!(also!issue!with!decadal)! Predictability)(nature)controls):!is!ENSO!becoming!less!predictable?!!
    Signal!to!noise!problem!(dicult!to!measure!from!observa@ons!alone,!need!to! use!models!#!incestuous)! We!do!know!that!predictability!varies!with!@me!scale,!phenomena!(is!this! modulated!at!longer!@me!scales?)!

    How)to)move)forward?)

    Improve)reliability)of)climate)model)forecasts)

    )Improve!simula@on!of!variability!on!all!@me!scales!(e.g.,!weather,!MJO,!ENSO,! decadal,!etc)! Models!currently!tend!to!be!too!condent! Would!allow!predic@ng!forecast!skill,!forecasts!of!opportunity! Avoid!largely!useless!average!skill!masks!

    Need)comprehensive)assessment)of)climate)predictability)

    Start!with!mul@ple!models!to!get!range!of!values! Compare!with!skill!(how!far!are!we!from!being!limited!by!predictability?)!

    Current)Skill)
    10000!km!

    Predictability!
    Research!on!decadal! predic@on,!global! warming!impacts,!role! of!land!use!changes,! aerosols,!etc.!

    User)Needs)

    Spa$al)Scales)

    1000!km! 100!km! 10!km! 1!km!

    High)

    Higher!resolu@on,! improved!Rossby! wave!impacts,!land/ atmos!coupling,!land! ini@al!states,! improved!atmos/land! seasonal!cycle,! weather!extremes,!etc!

    Improved!ENSO! predic@on!and! regional!response,! downscaling!,! improved!land/ atmos!coupling,! soil!moisture,! snow!observa@ons,! etc!

    Minute! Day!

    Week!

    Season!

    1!yr!

    10!yrs!

    100!yrs!

    Time)Scales)

    Ques-on$2:$Mechanisms$to$Ensure$Eec-ve/Sustained$ Collabora-on$Between$Climate$Science$and$Users$of$Informa-on!

    Development)of)a)Global)Drought)Informa$on)System) (WCRP,)WMO,)NDIS,)etc)) #synergy!between!global!providers!and!regional! capabili@es/needs! #how!to!ensure!!global!products!are!consistent!and! useful!to!regional/local!users?! #how!to!engage!global!providers!(benets)?! #how!to!refresh!technology!and!ensure!con@nued! relevance!to!user!needs?! #how$to$move$forward?$ !

    Global)Drought)Informa$on)System)
    Drought)Catalog)!encyclopedia! of!our!current!understanding!of! drought!worldwide!(mechanisms,! predictability,!historical!events,! sta@s@cs!of!drought,!etc.)! Updated!as!warranted! JCLIM!special!issue!on! Drought! Monitoring)and)Predic$on) includes!skill!es@mates,!global!and! regional!products,!takes!advantage! of!global!and!regional!capabili@es,! regular$user$feedback$ On#going!real#@me!ac@vity!

    Case)Studies)!interna@onal! collabora@on,!high!prole!recent! events,!involves!users!and! researchers,!drives!development! and!further!research! On#going!targeted!research!

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