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Surprise and Terrorism A Conceptual Framework
Surprise and Terrorism A Conceptual Framework
To cite this Article Morris, Daniel R.(2009)'Surprise and Terrorism: A Conceptual Framework',Journal of Strategic Studies,32:1,1 — 27
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The Journal of Strategic Studies
Vol. 32, No. 1, 1–27, February 2009
DANIEL R. MORRIS
ABSTRACT While terrorist attacks are, by their very nature, surprise attacks,
they are rarely studied as such. There have been few attempts to integrate
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knowledge and insight from the extensive bodies of literature on military surprise
attack and terrorism. This article proposes a framework for understanding the
relationship between the mechanism of surprise and the method of terrorism. It
seeks to situate the principle of surprise within the tactical and strategic logic of
terrorism in order to illuminate the role of surprise as the terrorist’s tactical
mechanism of necessity and his strategic weapon of choice. Applying this
framework to the 9/11 case will further illustrate the central role of surprise in
terrorism.
The surprise is, therefore, not only the means to the attainment of
numerical superiority; but it is also to be regarded as a substantive
principle in itself, on account of its moral effect. When it is
successful in a high degree, confusion and broken courage in the
enemy’s ranks are the consequences; and of the degree to which
these multiply a success, there are examples enough, great and
small.1
Carl von Clausewitz, On War, 1832
Terror struck into the hearts of the enemies is not only a means, it
is the end in itself. Once a condition of terror into the opponent’s
heart is obtained, hardly anything is left to be achieved. It is the
1
Carl von Clausewitz, On War (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin Books 1982), 269.
point where the means and the end meet and merge. Terror is not
a means of imposing decision upon the enemy; it is the decision we
wish to impose upon him.2
S. K. Malik, The Quranic Concept of War, 1979
3
An earlier version of this framework was presented by the author in Gregory
B. O’Hayon and Daniel R. Morris, ‘Warning in the Age of WMD Terrorism’, in Peter
Katona, Michael D. Intriligator, and John P. Sullivan (eds.), Countering Terrorism and
WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorist Network (London: Routledge 2006),
51–68.
4
James J. Wirtz, ‘Theory of Surprise’, in Richard K. Betts and Thomas G. Mahnken
(eds.), Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel
(London/Portland, OR: Frank Cass 2003), 104.
4 Daniel R. Morris
his choosing and strike before the defender realises that he is engaged in
combat. In its ideal form, then, surprise essentially allows the attacking
force to administer damaging blows upon an inactive adversary.7
This is, of course, a theoretical ideal. The suspension of war’s
dialectic is temporary, and rarely is it absolute in practice.8 This is one
reason why strategic military surprise attacks are often initially
successful but usually fail to deliver decisive victory to the surpriser.
Surprise tends to throw the afflicted off-balance only temporarily, and
unless this momentary advantage is capitalised on to the fullest, it is
unlikely that the surpriser will be able to defeat the inherently stronger
opponent. On the tactical level, however, the distance between theory
and practice narrows considerably, and the ideal type becomes
conceivable in reality. As Clausewitz put it, ‘In tactics the surprise is
much more at home, for the very natural reason that all times and
spaces are on a smaller scale.’9 Given that the principles of special
operations warfare coalesce to reduce war to its simplest form, it is
5
McRaven defines relative superiority as ‘a condition that exists when an attacking
force, generally smaller, gains a decisive advantage over a larger or well-defended
enemy.’ William H. McRaven, SPEC OPS: Case Studies in Special Operations
Warfare: Theory and Practice (Novato, CA: Presidio 1995), 4.
6
Ibid., 8–9.
7
Wirtz, ‘Theory of Surprise’, 103.
8
Colin S. Gray, Transformation and Strategic Surprise (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic
Studies Institute, US Army War College 2005), 9–10.
9
Clausewitz, On War, 270.
Surprise and Terrorism 5
however, the attackers would certainly have been thwarted before the
attack could reach the operational stage. In fact, without the
presumption of surprise the London operation could hardly have been
conceived at all. In the end, surprise made the attack possible, but
ultimately not successful.
In sum, while it is by no means sufficient for operational success,
tactical surprise is usually necessary for the avoidance of outright
failure. Surprise itself cannot deliver victory but it can create the
conditions necessary for an operation to be conceived and successfully
executed. In terrorism, the stark asymmetry of force capabilities
between the terrorist and the state necessitates the use of tactics that
bypass the dialectical nature of war from which the state derives its
overwhelming military advantage.11 Surprise enables the terrorist to
overcome this asymmetry by ‘pre-empting the duel that is war’, as
Wirtz puts it.12 Through the element of surprise, the terrorist seeks to
negate the state’s strengths and create the conditions to exploit its
weaknesses. Surprise is only one tactical principle of the terrorist
operation but it is nonetheless an essential one. Without it, terrorism
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11
Richard K. Betts, ‘The Soft Underbelly of American Primacy: Tactical Advantages of
Terror’, Political Science Quarterly 117/1 (2002), 30.
12
Wirtz, ‘Theory of Surprise’, 104.
Surprise and Terrorism 7
its passengers. The strategic effects are instead generated from the
psychological impact that the specific tactics induce on an intended
audience.
The fear that an attack invokes does not merely derive from
the outcome, but more importantly from the nature of the attack,
which is defined in large part by the specific tactics employed.
Terrorists can conceivably strike anywhere, anytime, and unexpect-
edly.13 Terrorism terrifies because the tactics that characterise the
method make the threat appear ubiquitous. It is the unexpected
nature of the terrorist attack that perhaps resonates loudest in
peoples’ minds; the fear the method induces is a function of not
knowing where, when, and how the terrorists will strike next. The
Greek Cypriot terrorist leader Colonel (later General) Georgios
Grivas explained how this principle was exploited during the British
occupation of Cyprus:
13
Brian M. Jenkins, The Lessons of Beirut: Testimony before the Long Commission
(Santa Monica, CA: RAND 1984).
8 Daniel R. Morris
14
Quoted in Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism, 2nd ed. (New York: Columbia UP
2006), 55.
Surprise and Terrorism 9
people.’15 The desire to surprise and shock is one reason why explosives
have long been the terrorist’s weapon of choice. ‘These weapons, the
proletariat’s artillery, cause surprise, confusion, and panic among the
ranks of the enemy’, explained John Most, the late nineteenth century
German-American anarchist.16
The terrorist uses violent and shocking acts to cause what Sir Basil
Liddell-Hart described as the psychological ‘dislocation’ of the
enemy.17 The capacity to surprise and shock a significant portion of
society through discrete acts of violence is a hallmark of contemporary
terrorism largely afforded by the advent of mass media. In an age of
near real-time global media reporting, Sun Tzu’s once hyperbolic
mantra, ‘kill one person and frighten ten thousand,’ has assumed an
almost understated literal truth. An unexpected act of indiscriminate
violence can shatter presumptions of personal security for millions of
people, fundamentally changing the way people think and operate. This
effect is greatest when an attack surprises its audience by the very fact
of a terrorist threat where none was thought to exist. While terrorist
attacks often surprise by their method or timing, it is when perceived
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15
Quoted in Ibid.
16
John Most, ‘The Case for Dynamite’, in Walter Laqueur (ed.), Voices of Terror:
Manifestos, Writings, and Manuals of Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Other Terrorists from
around the World and Throughout the Ages (New York: Reed Press 2004), 341.
17
See B.H. Liddell Hart, Strategy (Norwalk, CT.: The Easton Press 1992 repr. of 1954
orig.).
18
Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale UP 1966), 172.
10 Daniel R. Morris
The effects of perceived insecurity. The moral effect of surprise does not
itself translate to strategic gains for the surpriser. On the strategic level,
what matters is how this moral effect manifests itself in the behaviour of a
target audience. Expressed a different way, the coercive value of a
terrorist attack depends on the attacker’s ability to alter a target
audience’s perceptions in such a way that it causes behavioural pre-
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19
Clausewitz, On War, 104.
Surprise and Terrorism 11
alliances, and weaken its standing and prestige. Acts of terrorism all
but assure a response from government because the method is designed
to challenge the state’s protective function. The terrorist attack is often
meant to demonstrate to the state’s citizens that their government is
incapable of protecting them.21 This strategy of undermining the
government’s position was articulated well by Russian revolutionary
Sergei Stepniak-Kravchinski in 1883:
20
Alex P. Schmid, ‘Frameworks for Conceptualising Terrorism’, Terrorism and
Political Violence 16/2 (2004), 207.
21
Ibid., 207–8.
22
Serge Stepniak-Kravchinski, ‘Underground Russia’, in Voices of Terror, 93.
12 Daniel R. Morris
23
Ibid.
24
Abu Sa’d al-Amili, ‘Learning Lessons from the Raids on New York and Washington’,
in Essays on the September 11th Raid (orig. pub. in Arabic by Majallat al-Ansar,
English trans. provided by OSC 2002), 43–4.
Surprise and Terrorism 13
25
Wirtz, ‘Theory of Surprise’, 113.
14 Daniel R. Morris
26
Ibid., 105.
27
See John P. Sullivan, ‘Terrorism Early Warning and Co-Production of Counter-
Terrorism Intelligence’, paper presented at the Canadian Association for Security and
Intelligence Studies 20th Anniversary Conference, Montreal, 21 Oct. 2005.
Surprise and Terrorism 15
Al-Qa’eda’s attacks are meant to both terrify and impress. This is why
Al-Qa’eda adopted what has become its trademark practice of
launching sophisticated suicide operations, often involving multiple
bombers, designed to inflict maximum casualties. As bin Laden
explained to journalist Abdel Bari Atwan in a November 1996
interview, ‘The nature of the battle calls for operations of a specific
type that will make an impact on the enemy, and this of course calls for
excellent preparation.’30 Similarly, in his 2001 book, Knights under the
Prophet’s Banner, Ayman al-Zawahiri explains: ‘The targets as well as
the type and method of weapons used must be chosen to have an
impact on the structure of the enemy and deter it enough to stop its
brutality.’31 In other words, the manner in which the enemy is attacked
is important in itself.
The 9/11 operation was designed not only to inflict mass casualties,
but to create a spectacle of violence so dramatic and unprecedented that
the entire world would be compelled to watch, polarising audiences by
their reaction: horror or jubilation. In other words, the United States
was attacked in a manner that was intentionally designed to surprise
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The power and significance of the raid on the US enemy lay not
only in the loss of life and property, but also in the political
message that the raid sent to the freedom-loving downtrodden
who yearn for freedom, dignity, and pride. . . . It was unexpected
and unimaginable. It struck a sudden blow at the [United States]
from an unexpected direction.32
30
Abdel Bari Atwan, ‘My Weekend with Osama Bin Laden’, The Guardian, 12 Nov. 2001.
31
Quoted in Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Understanding Al Qaeda: The
Transformation of War (London: Pluto 2007), 55.
32
Abu Ayman al-Hilali, ‘The Real Story of the Raids on New York and Washington’, in
Essays on the September 11th Raid (orig. pub. in Arabic by Majallat al-Ansar, English
trans. provided by OSC 2002), 37.
Surprise and Terrorism 17
over and over again by the media. If the real-time news coverage of
the attack was not Al-Qa’eda’s intention then they undoubtedly
learned something from the 9/11 experience. ‘The cameras of CNN
[Cable News Network] and other Western media dinosaurs under-
took the task of filming the raid and sowing fear in its aftermath’,
wrote Abu Ubayd al-Qirshi. ‘It didn’t cost al-Qa’ida a cent.’33
Thus the first challenge for any terrorist group is to capture and hold
the attention of an audience by creating media-worthy events. The
more dramatic and extraordinary the action, the more attention it is
likely to attract from the media and, by extension, the public and the
government. This is to say that surprise is a device that can expand
the media reach of a terrorist group by exploiting the natural
human attraction to the dramatic and the unorthodox. Al-Qa’eda
demonstrated their mastery of this principle on 9/11 by striking in a
way that was almost completely ‘unexpected and unimaginable’.
However, attracting attention was not an objective in itself but rather
a means. The purpose of attracting attention is, first, to alter
perceptions.
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Within the above passage from a 2002 jihadist essay one can identify
three different ways in which surprise was utilised on 9/11. The author
highlights the obvious tactical advantage afforded by the element of
surprise: with the enemy paralysed by the shock of surprise, the
attackers faced little active opposition, allowing them to remain ‘in
motion, moving the battle along’. The two other ways are less obvious,
33
Abu Ubayd al-Qirshi, ‘The 11 September Raid: The Impossible Becomes Possible’, in
Essays on the September 11th Raid (orig. pub. in Arabic by Majallat al-Ansar, English
trans. provided by OSC 2002), 22.
34
al-Hilali, ‘The Real Story of the Raids on New York and Washington’, 31.
18 Daniel R. Morris
but equally important. One is the link the author draws between
surprise and fear. Al-Qa’eda induces fear in its enemies precisely
because its attacks are unexpected and shocking. The third way is
related to the second, but the target audience here is not the enemy. By
defeating US intelligence and surprising its government, Al-Qa’eda was
exposing America’s vulnerability. By means of dramatic demonstration,
it was sending a message to Muslims everywhere that the US could be
successfully challenged on its own soil. The following paragraphs
elaborate on these two important ways that surprise was used to alter
perceptions.
Al-Qa’eda’s coercive credibility depends on fostering a perception in
the enemy that the threat it presents is a ubiquitous one. Al-Qa’eda
cultivates this perception by striking in unexpected ways and from
unexpected directions. Following its 2004 attack on a residential
compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Al-Qa’eda released a long
statement reiterating its strategy. ‘As we explained earlier’, the
statement reads, ‘this war is based on a strategy to widen the
battlefield. The entire world has become a battlefield in practice and
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not in theory.’35 The first point is true but the latter is clearly
hyperbole – the Al-Qa’eda network certainly does not have unlimited
reach. However, what matters for Al-Qa’eda’s strategy is that this
notion – the theoretical possibility for terrorists to attack anywhere and
at any time – is accepted within the enemy’s society as a reality. This
illusory belief is predicated, in large part, on the basis that Al-Qa’eda’s
attacks are invariably surprise attacks.
The 9/11 attacks were designed to foster this perception in the
American public in order to undermine perceptions of security and
influence behaviour. The attacks literally came from out of the blue and
without warning. The implicit message that was conveyed by the
manner in which Al-Qa’eda struck was that nowhere was safe; Al-
Qa’eda demonstrated that they could reach Americans whether in the
air, on the ground, in their grandest buildings, and even in their
fortresses. This message was convincing because Al-Qa’eda had the
element of surprise on its side. As one writer put it, ‘The skillful
execution of the raid sent a message to the enemy that the mujahidin
are capable of responding in kind and striking the enemy where he lives
and in ways he cannot imagine.’36 The same theme of striking
35
‘The Operation of 11 Rabi Al-Awwal: The East Riyadh Operation and Our War with
the United States and Its Agents’ (orig. published in Arabic by the Center for Islamic
Studies and Research, English trans. provided by OSC 2003), 15–16.
36
Sayf al-Din al-Ansari, ‘The Raid on New York and Washington: A Generic
Description’, in Essays on the September 11th Raid (orig. pub. in Arabic by Majallat al-
Ansar, English trans. provided by OSC 2002), 15. [Emphasis added].
Surprise and Terrorism 19
37
‘Full Version of Bin Ladin’s 23 April [2006] Audio Message’, English transcript
provided by OSC (27 Apr. 2006). [Emphasis added].
38
Cited in Louise Richardson, What Terrorists Want: Understanding the Terrorist
Threat (London: John Murray 2006), 179.
39
I am grateful to Robert Jervis for providing this observation in comments on an
earlier draft of this article.
40
al-Qirshi, ‘The 11 September Raid: The Impossible Becomes Possible’, 20.
41
Osama Bin Laden, ‘Jihad against Jews and Crusaders: World Islamic Front Statement
[1998 Fatwa]’ (23 Feb. 1998).
20 Daniel R. Morris
elaborate deceptions. Thus, the very fact that the Americans were taken
by surprise was itself an important message meant to awaken and
inspire Muslims to answer the call of jihad.
Sayf al-Din al-Ansari captures the essence of this message and puts it
in plain language for his readers: ‘A small group destroyed symbols
meant to last for eternity, and they did so with an operation that
surprised everyone. They made the terror that the United States inspires
a thing of the past. . . . After September 11 everything is possible.’42
Other jihadist writers have drawn similar conclusions. Abu Ayman al-
Hilali writes, ‘It was a blow to the credibility and competence of the
famed security and intelligence agencies and their legendary status in
the US and global imagination. They were revealed as weak and
ineffective against the mujahidin.’43 Abu Ubayd al-Qirshi notes that the
9/11 operation represented ‘a clear failure on the part of the US
intelligence agencies that used to strike fear into the hearts of so many
people. The [US intelligence] agencies with their enormous budgets
could not stop 19 mujahidin armed with knives who used the enemy’s
own weapons against his economic and military installations.’44
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42
al-Ansari, ‘The Raid on New York and Washington’, 9.
43
al-Hilali, ‘The Real Story of the Raids on New York and Washington’, 31.
44
al-Qirshi, ‘The 11 September Raid: The Impossible Becomes Possible’, 21.
45
al-Amili, ‘Learning Lessons from the Raids on New York and Washington’, 44.
Surprise and Terrorism 21
46
Quoted in Peter L. Bergen, The Osama Bin Laden I Know: An Oral History of Al-
Qaeda’s Leader (New York: Free Press 2006), 309.
47
The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist
Attacks Upon the United States (New York: Norton 2004), 39.
22 Daniel R. Morris
States were all well known and the subject of repeated and accurate
analytical production by the intelligence community.’49 There is
empirical support for this view.50 Indeed, Director of Central
Intelligence George Tenet testified publicly in February and March
2001 that bin Laden and his network constituted ‘the most
immediate and serious threat’ to the United States.51 This was an
unusually clear statement of strategic warning by the most senior
official in the US Intelligence Community.
However, while Tenet and other officials in the US government may
have been convinced that a major terrorist attack was imminent, the
American public could hardly have imagined what was in store for
them on 11 September 2001. Before the attacks, the vast majority of
48
Muhammad Khalil al-Hakaymah, The Myth of Delusion: Exposing the American
Intelligence (orig. published in Arabic by al-Maqreze Center, English translation
provided by OSC nd ), 4.
49
Paul R. Pillar, ‘Metaphors and Mantras: A Comment on Shultz and Vogt’s
Discussion of Terrorism, Intelligence, and War’, Terrorism and Political Violence 15/
2 (2003), 149.
50
See, for instance, Paul R. Pillar, ‘Good Literature and Bad History: The 9/11
Commission’s Tale of Strategic Intelligence’, Intelligence and National Security 21/6
(Dec. 2006), 1022–44.
51
‘Statement by the Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet for the Senate
Armed Services Committee 7 March 2001’, 5www.senate.gov/*armed_services/
statemnt/2001/010308gt.pdf/4.
Surprise and Terrorism 23
Americans did not know they were at war, let alone who they were at
war with. The American public was undoubtedly taken by
complete surprise on 9/11. If we were to rely on the traditional
understanding of strategic surprise, which is based on the conditions
of intelligence warning and political response, then the surprise
experienced by the American public on 11 September would be of
little, if any importance to the analysis. However, adopting such a
narrow understanding of strategic surprise attack in this context would
risk overlooking the main reason why terrorism is most often directed
against civilians, and would certainly miss the point of the 9/11
operation.
There is nothing to suggest that there was any conscious effort on the
part of Al-Qa’eda to impose the condition of strategic surprise on the
US government or its intelligence services on 9/11. There would have
been little advantage in doing so; in fact, the whole point of Al-Qa’eda’s
coercive strategy is to make the enemy clearly understand the threat it is
facing. Al-Qa’eda did not need to lure the United States into a false
sense of security in order create a vulnerability to exploit. There was, in
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Conclusion
‘A [grave] danger of the future’, Robert Kupperman warned in 1982, ‘is
the probability that unconventional incidents will have a much greater
impact than they perhaps warrant and will be allowed to resonate until
they eventually fractionate some of our important stabilizing social and
24 Daniel R. Morris
America has the largest economic power and the strongest and
most modern arsenal. It spends on this war and its army more
than the entire world does on it armies. It is the superpower that
influences the world policies, as though the unjust veto were its
exclusive right. Despite all of this, 19 young men managed with
God’s help to cause it to deviate from its course. Talk about the
mujahidin has become an integral part of your leader’s speeches.
The effects and signs of this are obvious.53
52
Robert H. Kupperman, Debra van Opstal, and David Williamson Jr, ‘Terror, the
Strategic Tool: Response and Control’, Annals of the American Academy of Political
and Social Science 463/1 (1982), 35.
53
‘Message from Usama bin Ladin to the American People’, original video production
by Al-Sahab (English transcript provided by OSC 11 Sept. 2007).
54
Gray, Transformation and Strategic Surprise, v.
Surprise and Terrorism 25
Acknowledgments
This article has benefited from the advice of various individuals,
especially Joshua A. Geltzer, Michael S. Goodman, Gregory O’Hayon,
and John P. Sullivan. The author also wishes to thank Professor Robert
Jervis for providing invaluable comments on an earlier draft of this
article.
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