Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 17, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 17, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates at 7.25 % & 6.25% today. European equities trading higher, Asian & US also in the green. Indian government cuts base import prices of gold and silver. European equities are trading higher today ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting to be starting from tomorrow. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rates and reverse repo rates unchanged at 7.25 percent and 6.25 percent respectively. Further, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) also remained at 4 percent. Trade Balance was at a deficit of $20.1 billion in May from earlier deficit of $17.8 billion. Exports rose marginally to $24.51 billion in May as compared to $24.16 billion a month ago. Imports grew to $44.65 billion in last month with respect to $41.95 billion in April. Indian government has cut the gold base import price to $450/10 gms from $459/10 gms today. It also reduce the base import price of silver from $737/kg to $709/kg in todays trading session. Spot gold prices declined 0.3 percrent today on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in the safe haven appeal for the commodity. Further, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) exerted downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices coupled with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 0.8 percent today. Additionally, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a negative note today on account of strength in the DX. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario also added downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of expectations of rise in US manufacturing data. On the domestic front, depreciation in the Rupee prevented shap fall in prices. Nymex crude oil prices gained 0.6 percent today taking cues from expectations that unrest in Syria will spread to other parts of the Middle East will create supply concerns. Further, uncentrainity over the Fed regarding cut in its stimulus spending capped sharp gains in prices. Strength in the DXprevented positive movement in oil prices. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.3 percent and depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 17 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5820.40 19249.90 12584.37 1889.45 16151.39

5854.90 19344.28 13033.12 1897.70 16272.80

5770.25 19084.68 12549.82 1878.40 15955.77

5850.05 19325.87 13033.12 1883.10 15955.77

0.72 0.77 2.73 -0.32 0.63

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 17 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

80.64 1.334 57.69

80.81 1.3357 57.86

80.63 1.3316 57.55

80.66 1.334 57.755 as at 4.30 pm 17 June 13

0.01 -0.04 0.46

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex July 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil June 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1390.79 1390.30 27899.00 22.03 28.23 43860 97.85 105.77 5651 7081.00 408.25 1851.00 106.20 2115 122.25 14345 826.50 1860.00 105.80

1391.61 1390.50 27947.0 22.05 0.21915 43860 98.67 106.67 5698 7176.00 412.20 1876.75 107.00 2133 122.90 14400 832.00 1867.00 106.20

1384.34 1385.60 27751.0 21.83 0.2187 43530 97.38 105.40 5629 7079.50 407.50 1851.00 105.50 2103 121.20 14180 818.00 1838.25 104.50

1386.60 1385.80 27792.00 21.86 0.21915 43549 98.48 106.23 5685 7085.00 407.95 1855.00 105.65 2112 121.40 14213 819.60 1839.75 104.50

-0.26 -0.11 -0.31 -0.82 -0.17 -0.65 0.64 0.28 0.39 -0.08 0.00 -0.28 -0.33 -0.08 -0.41 -0.57 -0.92 -1.17 -1.04

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 17, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the eveing session, we expect precious metals to trade lower on account of upbeat global markets which will lead to fall in safe haven demand. In case of base metals and crude oil prices will trade higher on the back of expectations of favorable manufacturing data from the US. Crude oil prices will further trade on a positive note as a result of unrest in Syria. Weakness in the DX will support an upside in the prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 17 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil June13 Nymex Crude Oil July13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27600 1372 43050 21.60 6084 5600 96.8 215 7020 403 104 119.8 103 804 Support 1 27710 1382 43300 21.82 6115 5640 97.5 218.5 7055 406 104.9 120.7 103.8 813 CMP 27799 1386.4 43578 21.9 6180 5678 98.4 221 7082 407.9 105.6 121.4 104.55 819.8 Resistance1 27910 1396 43850 22.23 6195 5730 98.7 223 7162 411 106.5 122.5 105.5 828 Resistance 2 27990 1402 44100 22.6 6240 5765 99.4 226 7210 414 107.4 123.6 106.4 837

Important Events for Today

Indicator Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index G8 Meetings Country Japan US All Time (IST) 5:20am 6:00pm Day 1 Actual 0.0% Forecast 0.2% 0.4 Previous -1.3% -1.4 Impact Medium Medium High