Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 18, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 18, 2013

Highlights
US Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to 7.8-mark in June. RBI kept repo & reverse repo rates at 7.25 % & 6.25 % respectively. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 16.1 billion Euros in April. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in foreign direct investment data and leading index from China. Further, investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve decision to curtail its bond buying program or not in a meeting starting from today. US Empire State Manufacturing Index increased to 7.8-mark in June as against a decline of 1.4-level in May. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index rose by 8 points to 52-level in current month from previous rise of 44-mark in last month. Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rates and reverse repo rates unchanged at 7.25 percent and 6.25 percent respectively. Further, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) also remained at 4 percent. Trade Balance was at a deficit of $20.1 billion in May from earlier deficit of $17.8 billion. Exports rose marginally to $24.51 billion in May as compared to $24.16 billion a month ago. Imports grew to $44.65 billion in last month with respect to $41.95 billion in April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5850.1 19325.9 15179.85 1639.0 16194.1 1959.2 58497.8 13033.1 97.77 1382.80 21.76 7087.25 #N/A 102.09 Prev. day 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 -1.5 0.2 2.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 #N/A 0.0

as on June 17, 2013 WoW -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -2.2 1.4 14.0 -0.1 2.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.1 #N/A 2.9 MoM -5.2 -4.6 -1.0 -1.7 -7.7 -1.2 4.0 -10.8 1.1 0.4 -3.6 -9.7 #N/A -2.7 YoY 15.7 5.7 18.9 22.1 24.5 2.0 4.1 49.4 16.4 -15.0 -24.3 -5.6 #N/A -0.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic data from US coupled with positive movement in US equities. The DX touched an intra-day high of 80.81 and closed at 80.73 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.73 58.10 57.95 57.97 Prev. day 0.1 -1.1 0.54 0.58 WoW -1.1 0.1 -0.73 -0.63

as on June 17, 2013 MoM -3.7 -6.1 5.44 5.48 YoY 1.6 -3.9 4.13 4.16

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of central bank keeping the key interest rates unchanged. Further, strength in the DX added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the Rupee was cushioned as a result of less than forecasted trade deficit data of the country. The currency touched an intra-day low of 58.10 and closed at same levels against dollar on Monday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,767.50 crores th ($298.05 million) as on 17 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.81,437.60 crores ($15,054.90 million) till 17th June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is expected to depreciate in todays trade on the back of weak global markets. Further trend in the Rupee will be dependent on announcement and statement by the Fed in a meeting which will begin today. However, expectations of partial pull back in bond buying program by Federal Reserve will continue to trade DX on a positive note.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 18, 2013 Support 57.80/57.70 Resistance 58.20/58.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 18, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic data from the region. Further, upbeat global markets in the later part of the trade supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3381 and closed at 1.3367 against the dollar on Monday. However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of strength in the DX. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 1.91 billion Euros in April as against a earlier surplus of 3.24 billion Euros a month ago. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 16.1 billion Euros in April from previous surplus of 18.1 billion a month earlier. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to strength on the back of expectations of favorable economic sentiments data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of weak global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 77.10/76.90 77.45/77.65 valid for June 18, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3367 77.25 77.3 Prev. day 0.2 -0.8 0.62

as on June 17, 2013 WoW 0.8 -3.2 0.20 MoM 3.8 -9.6 9.18 YoY 6.3 -10.5 10.07

77.3

0.68

0.23

9.24

10.10

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.10 1.15 0.99

as on June 17, 2013

WoW 0.9 0.90 0.44

MoM 2.9 9.69 8.60

YoY 0.3 4.97 5.23

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated 0.1 percent on the back of upbeat global markets in later part of the trade. The Sterling Pound touched an intraday high of 1.5751 and closed at 1.5718 against dollar on Monday. However, strength in the DX prevented sharp gains in the currency. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of forecast for optimistic data from the country. However, sharp upside in the currency will be prevented as a result of weak global markets along with stronger DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 18, 2013 Support 90.80/90.60 Resistance 91.20/91.40

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5718 91.327 91.00

91.01

1.00

0.42

8.60

5.25

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 18, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 95.21 and closed at 94.49 against dollar on Monday. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to rise in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 18, 2013 Support 60.90/60.70 Resistance 61.20/61.40 Last 94.49 0.6144 61.06 61.07 Prev day 0.4 0.51 0.59 0.58 as on June 17, 2013 WoW -4.3 4.45 3.49 3.56 MoM -7.6 15.51 13.64 13.62 YoY 19.5 -12.70 -13.55 -13.52

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 18, 2013

Indicator ECB President Draghi Speaks CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Inflation Report Hearings BOE Inflation Letter Building Permits Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Housing Starts G8 Meetings Country Euro UK UK UK Euro Euro UK UK US US US US All Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Day 2 Actual Forecast 2.6% 0.1% 3.1% 38.2 29.4 0.98M 0.2% 0.1% 0.95M Previous 2.4% -2.3% 2.9% 36.4 27.6 1.01M 0.1% -0.4% 0.85M Impact High High Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Medium Medium High

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