Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 20, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, compl eteness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedbac k is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 20, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7-mark in current month. UKs Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in the last month. European Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7-mark in June. European equities are trading lower today on the back of announcement by Fed regarding tapering its stimulus spending. Asian markets ended lower and US stock futures trading in the red. German Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.3 percent in May as against a fall of 0.2 percent in April. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 48.3mark in June from rise of 46.4-level in May. German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7 points to 48.7-mark in June with respect to 49.4-level in last month. European Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 points to 48.7-mark in June from 48.3-level in May. UKs Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in May as against a decline of 1.1 percent in April. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations was at -18-mark in June from earlier fall of 20level in May. Spot gold prices declined 3.6 percent today on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) exerted downside pressure on the prices. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of $1285.90/oz and hovered around $1301.04/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned fall in prices. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined 5.6 percent in todays trade. Additionally, a stronger DX added downside pressure on the white metal prices. Depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. The base metals pack traded on a negative note on the back of weak global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable manufacturing data from China acted as a negative factor for prices. On the domestic front, prices fell but depreciation in the Rupee restricted fall in prices. LME copper prices slipped around 2 percent today on account of rise in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent which stood at 643,125 tonnes. Further, strength in the DX coupled with downside pressure from global markets acted as a negative factor. Additionally, fall in Chinas manufacturing data exerted downside pressure on prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined 1.9 percent taking cues from rising US crude oil inventories coupled with Fed announcement of reducing bond buying program by end of this year. Strength in the DX coupled with unfavorable data from China also exerted downside pressure on oil prices. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in crude oil prices. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 20 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5754.15 19069.20 13101.85 1864.37 15811.52

5755.00 19069.20 13190.82 1873.18 15952.08

5645.65 18687.19 12966.41 1844.41 15719.89

5655.90 18719.29 13014.58 1850.49 15719.89

-2.86 -2.74 -1.74 -2.00 -1.80

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 20 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.56 1.3294 59.61

82.22 1.3301 59.975

81.44 1.3178 59.50

82.13 1.3193 59.80 as at 4.30 pm 20 June 13

0.66 -0.76 1.87

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil July 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1350.90 1348.10 28000.00 21.31 28.23 43800 98.02 105.62 5812 6920.00 409.25 1852.00 108.00 2063 121.45 14100 833.00 1829.00 106.00

1351.06 1348.10 28000.0 21.33 0.2118 43805 98.03 105.62 5838 6930.00 410.40 1855.00 108.90 2063 122.50 14100 833.00 1829.50 106.80

1285.90 1285.00 26890.0 19.68 0.2117 41186 96.00 103.83 5764 6802.75 405.20 1820.50 107.00 2008 119.70 13778 822.70 1789.50 104.80

1301.04 1297.60 27102.00 20.10 0.2118 41638 96.38 104.21 5787 6830.00 407.30 1829.00 107.40 2015 120.00 13812 824.90 1795.75 105.30

-3.68 -5.53 -3.25 -5.68 -2.04 -5.27 -1.89 -1.80 0.12 -2.09 -0.24 -1.81 -0.09 -2.67 -0.99 -2.97 -1.13 -2.10 -0.28

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 20, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX coupled with Federal reserve announcement of tapering its bond buying program will exert more downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices will be marginally cushioned as a result of expectations of positive existing home sales and manufacturing data from US.

Technical Outook for evening session 20 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude July13 Crude Oil July13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 26760 1273 40750 19.35 6170 5730 95.5 229 6760 402 106 118.6 103.5 804 Support 1 26920 1285 41100 19.62 6220 5760 96 231 6800 405 106.7 119.4 104.4 816 CMP 27102 1299 41624 20 6273 5791 96.43 233.8 6830 407.3 107.4 120 105.35 825.8 Resistance1 27350 1321 42200 20.44 6295 5860 97.6 236 6880 410 108.6 121 106.5 835 Resistance 2 27500 1344 42700 20.85 6345 5890 98.2 238.5 6940 413 109.3 122.1 107 845

Important Events for Today

Indicator FOMC Press Conference BOE Gov King Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI German PPI m/m French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Eurogroup Meetings CBI Industrial Order Expectations Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI MPC Member Fisher Speaks Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Country US UK China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK Euro Euro UK US US UK US US Time (IST) 12:00am 1:30am 7:15am 11:30am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:16pm All Day 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual 48.3 -0.3% 48.3 46.5 48.7 51.3 48.7 48.6 2.1% 4.77/1.8 -18 Forecast 49.4 0.0% 47.1 45.0 49.9 50.1 48.6 47.7 0.8% -15 343K 52.5 5.01M -0.6 Previous 49.2 -0.2% 46.4 44.3 49.4 49.7 48.3 47.2 -1.3% 4.52/2.5 -20 334K 52.3 4.97M -5.2 Impact High High High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium High Medium Medium High High