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2008PFC50 Final1
2008PFC50 Final1
The Definitive Annual Ranking of the Worlds Largest Listed Energy Firms
The combined market capitalization of the PFC Energy 50 increased 45% to top $5 trillion, the largest jump in the lists history. Much of this value increase reflects the declining US dollar. Royal Dutch Shells share price, for instance, rose 19% in dollar terms, but only 8% in Euros.
W ith future growth potential more than offsetting emerging market risk, NOCs were valued at an average 20 times trailing 12-month earnings, compared with a 12 times average multiple for IOCs. Petrochina climbed from third to first place on the PFC Energy 50 in the run-up to its Shanghai IPO and posted a 181% share price increase for the year. Other big gainers in the traded NOCs group included Sinopec (+157%), CNOOC (+80%), PTT (+79%) and Petrobras (+93%). PTT climbed furthest in the rankings, gaining fifteen places from #50 to #35. Most of the value in the oil and gas sector remains outside public markets, in such resource holding companies as Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil Company, Kuwait Petroleum Company, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Petronas and othersall of which would make the PFC Energy 50 if publicly traded.
Chinese energy companies reaped a double benefit from surging Chinese markets and strong energy sector performance. The top share price performance in the PFC Energy 50 came from Petrochina (+181%) and Sinopec (+157%) and China Oilfield Services led the service sector with 633% share price growth. Following several years of strong growth, the four Russian companies on the PFC Energy 50 posted a market cap increase of only 15%no better than the SuperMajors. State-owned companies Gazprom (stock up 13%) and Rosneft (+5%) posted gains, while Lukoil (-1%) and Surgutneftegaz (-19%) declined.
Iberdrola Renovables (#36) became the first alternative energy producer to join the PFC Energy 50 and leads our first Alternative Energy Top 15. The companies on that list achieved an average 145% share price increase in 2007 and commanded an average 74 multiple, compared with 15 for the PFC Energy 50 as a whole.
In a year when WTI oil prices rose 57%, the combined capitalization of the SuperMajors increased a mere 15%, reflecting the companies continued struggle to deliver production growth. Stock buybacks created a gap between share price and market capitalization growth. ExxonMobils 22% share price increase, for instance, translated into a 15% increase in market cap.
The second highest segment multiple is found in the service sector, where the Top 15 are priced at an average 21 times trailing 12-month earnings. Services are the only sector where US-based companies still dominate, although the years strongest service company share price growth came from a Chinese service company and an Indian drilling company.
PFC Energy 50
2007 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
2006 Rank 3 1 2 4 12 11 5 6 10 7 8 9 14 24 13 16 18 22 15 21 23 19 26 27 36 17 20 28 31 32 30 33 38 50 29 37 42 41 39 46 34 40 35 43
Company Name Petrochina ExxonMobil Gazprom Royal Dutch Shell Sinopec Petrobras BP TOTAL BHP Billiton Chevron Eni ConocoPhillips Schlumberger Reliance Rosneft StatoilHydro BG CNOOC Lukoil ONGC Occidental Gaz de France Encana Suncor Transocean Surgutneftegaz Repsol YPF Marathon Devon Energy Canadian Natl Resources Valero Husky Energy Ecopetrol Apache PTT Iberdrola Renovables Halliburton Hess Sasol Anadarko Woodside Cepsa Formosa Petrochemical Tenaris Gas Natural National Oilwell Varco Centrica Petro-Canada Baker Hughes INPEX
Market Cap ($US Bil.) 723.2 511.9 332.0 264.6 249.5 241.7 230.7 198.5 197.5 197.1 146.3 141.2 117.6 106.3 101.4 99.6 76.6 75.4 74.0 67.1 63.8 57.4 51.2 50.3 45.3 44.3 43.8 43.2 39.6 39.5 38.5 38.2 36.6 35.8 35.3 35.1 33.4 32.2 31.2 30.6 30.4 27.9 27.7 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.3
% Share Price Change (YoY) 181% 22% 13% 8% 157% 93% 8% 4% 59% 27% -2% 23% 56% 127% 5% 6% 66% 80% -1% 42% 58% 15% 26% 18% 66% -19% -7% 32% 33% 17% 37% 14% *50% 62% 79% *11% 22% 103% 31% 51% 32% 20% 35% -10% 33% 140% 1% 12% 9% 24%
Primary Business Integrated NOC Integrated IOC Integrated NOC Integrated IOC Integrated NOC Integrated NOC Integrated IOC Integrated IOC Diversified Minerals Integrated IOC Integrated IOC Integrated IOC Oilfield Services R&M Integrated NOC Integrated NOC Integrated IOC E&P Integrated IOC E&P E&P Gas Utility E&P Integrated IOC Drilling & Seismic Integrated IOC Integrated IOC Integrated IOC E&P E&P R&M Integrated IOC Integrated NOC E&P Integrated NOC Alternatives Oilfield Services Integrated IOC Integrated IOC E&P E&P Integrated IOC R&M Equipment & EPCI Gas Utility Equipment & EPCI Gas Utility Integrated IOC Oilfield Services E&P
HQ Country China US Russia Netherlands China Brazil UK France Australia US Italy US US India Russia Norway UK China Russia India US France Canada Canada US Russia Spain US US Canada US Canada Colombia US Thailand Spain UAE US South Africa US Australia Spain Taiwan Luxembourg Spain US UK Canada US Japan
Ticker/Exch. 601857 CH XOM US GSPBEX RU RDSA NA 600028 CH PETR3 BZ BP/ LN FP FP BHP AU CVX US ENI IM COP US SLB US RIL IN ROSN RU STL NO BG/ LN 883 HK LKOH RU ONGC IN OXY US GAZ FP ECA CN SU CN RIG US SNGS RU REP SM MRO US DVN US CNQ CN VLO US HSE CN ECOPETL CB APA US PTT TB IBR SM HAL US HES US SOL SJ APC US WPL AU CEP SM 6505 TT TS US GAS SM NOV US CNA LN PCA CN BHI US 1605 JP
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007; *YTD Except where noted, share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency Petrochinas share price growth calculated by comparing 12/31/2007 Shanghai price with 1/02/2007 Hong Kong price in CNY. At the 12/31/2007 Hong Kong price Petrochinas market capitalization would be $304 billion.
Reliance
Petrochina
600%
500% Gazprom
Petrobras Tenaris
Sinopec
400%
Can.Nat. Rescs
BG
CNOOC Transocean
Hess
CEPSA ONGC
BHP
StatoilHydro
PTT
Apache Anadarko GasNatural ExxonMobil 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 225%
How do PFC Energy 50 companies compare in their market cap growth over one and three years? The NOCs have posted the strongest performance, while most IOCs struggled to deliver growth despite the high oil price environment. Equipment manufacturer National Oilwell Varco and Indian refiner Reliance also displayed exceptional growth. Please visit the PFC Energy 50 website at www.pfcenergy50.com for additional information and analysis.
1,500
2005
XOM
1,000
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
Source: Bloomberg
PFC Energy 50 companies have not benefited equally from rising oil prices. The chart compares market capitalization indices for selected companies (vertical scale) with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark crude oil price (horizontal scale) since 2001. The biggest winners have been the traded NOCs (Gazprom, Petrochina, Petrobras) and refiner Valero. While crude oil prices have more than quadrupled since 2001, the market capitalizations of ExxonMobil and TOTAL, for instance, have not quite doubled. Please visit the PFC Energy 50 website at www.pfcenergy50.com for additional information and analysis.
E&P
497%
R&M
INTEGRATED IOCs
GAS
633%
INTEGRATED NOCs
OILFIELD SERVICE
ALTERNATIVES
Traded NOCs performed well in 2007, posting an average 73% share price increase, compared with 20% for IOCs and 42% for E&P companies. The top two performers among the IOCs, Hess and BG, both benefited from association with the years most exciting exploration newsthe offshore Brazil pre-salt play. Chinese and Indian companies, buoyed by both surging domestic stock markets and energy sector strength, posted impressive gains. As a sector, Alternative Energy delivered stellar share price performance, including the highest overall stock price gain among PFC Energy Top 15 companies, First Solars 795% gain.
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
3 4 6 5 7
1 3 2
75.4 63.8
67.1
18 17
15
China India US US US US
883 HK
4 -
10 12 11
5 7
39.6 35.8 *
51.2
26%
39.5
33%
14 19 16 15 15
62%
17%
46% 26%
DVN US
6 11 12 9 8
14
13
INPEX
30.6
36%
24% 18%
22
19 16
15
14
Chesapeake
20.0
43% 35%
34
15
44% 16%
Japan
1605 JP
13
21
Russia
NVTK RU
48%
CHK US
EOG US
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet * BHP is a diversified minerals company; its oil and gas E&P activities, which account for 15-20% of the companys total, had an estimated value in the range of of $30-35 billion. BHP Billitons total market capitalization was $197.5 billion.
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
2 -
Reliance
4 5 -
Valero
35 20 8
32%
27%
24.0
Nippon Oil
10 12
6 7
10.5
11.8
*43% 0%
N/A 15 15 N/A 10 12 9 9 9
12
40% 5%
44%
41%
6505 TT
VLO US
RIL IN
47%
11
14 15
13
14 13 -
PKN Orlen
Essar Oil
9.4
9.5
497% 9%
Japan
IOCL IN
010950 KS
Tupras
8.5 6.5
42% 234%
16%
Mangalore Refining
6.1
45%
10 45
30%
Finland US US
ESOIL IN
TUPRS TI MRPL IN
46%
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet
2007 Rank
2006 Rank
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
3 6 2
Gaz de France
57.4
33%
15% 1%
19 19 16 14 17 14
32% 23%
22% 51%
France
Spain UK US
GAZ FP
13 10 14 12 9 11 7
Hong Kong and China Gas Sempra Energy Tokyo Gas GAIL
40% 24%
China
10 12
Osaka Gas
107% 32%
11
14 15
13
Canadian Utilities
13%
20
43
19
18
44% 41%
9531 JP
5.4 4.7
-22%
19 N/A 13
16
17
55%
Indonesia
ENG SM PTG MK
68%
036460 KS QGTS QD NI US
CU CN
135%
Qatar
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet Excludes major gas utilities that are components of diversified energy companies, including KeySpan (National Grid) and Reliance Natural Resources (Reliance Industries)
2007 Rank
2006 Rank
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
56% 22% 9%
25 18
15
27%
31%
23.1
10 12
14 -
14.8 4.5
17.4 7.1
633%
64%
43 24 10 15
22
33%
15%
US US US US US
US
HAL US WFT US
SLB US
BHI US
24%
21%
China
601808 CH BJS US
11
3.7
11%
29 23 18
48% 23%
45% Netherlands US US US US
19%
SII US
Norway France
SBMO NA
PRS NO
14 15
13
2.9 2.3
54% 17% 5%
18%
28 28
OII US
11
2.1
-6%
15
38% 38%
UK
CKH US
EXR LN
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency China Oilfield Services share price growth calculated by comparing 12/31/2007 Shanghai price with 1/02/2007 Hong Kong price in CNY This years PFC Energy 50 divides the Oilfield Services, Machinery & Equipment category into two sectors: Oilfield Services and Equipment & EPCI; 2006 ranks are from that years single Oilfield Services, Machinery & Equipment Top 15. Oilfield Services companies have operations that are primarily tied to oil and gas company operating expenses
2007 Rank
2006 Rank
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
5 7
Tenaris
-10%
22 22
17
13 -
11
15
NOV US KEP SP
TS US
132%
10 12
12 9
11.1
26
37
25
Singapore
SPM IM
24
31%
11
14 15
13
10
FMC Technologies
6.8
7.1
-15% 80%
51%
29 7
20
51
CAM US
14 14
29%
40%
47% 11% 9%
25%
Singapore US
Norway China
AKER NO
SCI SP
57
600583 CH
GRP US
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet Equipment and EPCI companies have operations that are primarily tied to oil and gas company capital spending Excludes major equipment and services suppliers that are components of diversified equipment and engineering companies, such as GE and ABB
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
4 3 7
Transocean
22
21
23%
10 8 5
40 22 9 8
14
49% 37%
16%
15%
US US US US
US
RIG US DO US NE US
19% 13%
11%
Norway France
SDRL NO ESV US GA FP
10 12
13 9 -
Pride International
11
14 10 11 21
48%
14 15
13
12
4.4
4.7 4.1
3.2
3.7
64% 105% 2%
19%
63
58%
Norway
ABAN IN RDC US HP US
PGS NO
10 23 15
52%
Norway
ATW US
FOE NO
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007 Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet Drilling & Seismic companies have operations that are primarily tied to oil and gas exploration spending
8,000
1,000
7,000
800 TOTAL R&D SPENDING (US $MILLION) US $ MILLION
3%
6,000
600
2%
5,000
400
4,000
200
1%
3,000
0 XOM PBR PTR GAZP BP BHI ENI CVX BHP RDS TOT SLB SPC HAL STL 0%
2,000
1,000
% OF REVENUES
New technology will be essential to expanding energy supplies and maintaining energy affordability in the years ahead. Shown in the chart above are the Top 15 R&D spenders among the PFC Energy 50 companies. Shell spends the most on R&D in absolute terms, while service companies Baker Hughes and Schlumberger spend the highest percentage of revenues. Not included in the chart are several non-traded NOCs that have substantial R&D budgets. As shown in the chart on the left, expenditures in the oil and gas industry are dwarfed by those in almost every other industry.
2007 Rank
2006 Rank
Company Name
Debt/ Capital
HQ Country
Ticker/Exch.
4 6 8 7 5
Iberdrola Renovables
20.8 16.0 12.4 6.8 4.3 4.3 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.8 3.2
25.2
35.1
795%
142%
*7%
N/A 356 89 43 64 78
20%
43% 10%
Spain
188%
10.9
296 96
34%
52%
19%
FSLR US
REC NO
IBR SM
QCE GR
10 12
50% 71%
11
25%
N/A 92 23 10
44
47% 12%
Germany France US
STP US
Spain
CVA US
SLR SM
14 15
13
Evergreen Solar
128%
179%
-10%
N/A
100
29%
SOLF US ESLR US
Source: Bloomberg, PFC Energy estimates, as of 12/31/2007; *YTD Share price growth based on primary exchange tickers traded in local currency P/E based on earnings from continuing operations for the 12 months ended 9/30/2007 Debt/Capital is ratio between total debt and total capital based on most recent published balance sheet Other PFC Energy 100 companies own substantial shares in Iberdrola Renovables and EdF Energies Nouvelles
PFC Energy has over 150 advisors throughout the world: Bahrain* Beijing Brussels Buenos Aires Calgary Cambridge (UK) Houston* Kuala Lumpur* Lausanne* Mumbai New York Paris* San Francisco Washington DC*
*Main regional offices
This year, the PFC Energy 50 website includes several exciting new features: dynamic charts illustrating key trends, an interactive tool for testing market capitalization drivers and the first PFC Energy 100 listingincluding power, coal and nuclear companies. Also included is an archive of previous PFC Energy 50 reports. Please visit www.pfcenergy50.com
Bahrain - (973) 172 15106 Houston - (1 713) 622-4447 Kuala Lumpur - (60 3) 2172-3400 Lausanne - (41 21) 721-1440 Paris - (33 1) 4770-2900 Washington DC - (1 202) 872-1199 www.pfcenergy.com pfcenergy50@pfcenergy.com