Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, dist ributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee fell 3.1 pct & touched all time low of 59.975 in last week. Chinas GDP outlook cut to 7.4 percent for the current year. European Current Account was at surplus of 19.5 billion Euros in April. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.5 billion Pounds in May. LME Copper inventories rose sharply 7.5 percent in the previous week. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of growth concerns in Chinese economy after Goldman Sachs Group cuts the Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 7.4 percent for the current year from previous estimates of 7.8 percent. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained sharply 2.3 percent in the last week as the announcement by the Federal Reserve to pullback its stimulus spending led to upside movement in the currency. Treasury yields in the US markets increased sharply to a 22-year high thus supporting gains in the DX. Further, rise in risk aversion in global markets led to increase in demand for low-yielding currency. The DX touched a weekly high of 82.745 and closed at 82.517 on Friday. The Indian Rupee depreciated 3.1 percent in the previous week. The currency depreciated on account of worries over the current account deficit of the country coupled with strength in the DX. Further, announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction in its stimulus measures exerted downside on the currency. Additionally, weak global and domestic markets acted as a negative factor. The Reserve Bank of India intervened and tried to provide respite to the fall in the Rupee, but the currency continued to depreciate majorly during the week. Rupee touched an all time low of 59.975 in the last week and closed at 59.27 against dollar on Friday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,028.70 crores ($848.17 million) as on 21st June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.78,176.40 crores ($14,504.80 million) till 21st June 2013. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.5 billion Pounds in May from 6.6 billion Pounds a month earlier.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.27 Prev day 0.5

as on 21 June, 2013 w-o-w -3.1 m-o-m -6.5 y-o-y -3.6

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3122

-0.7

-1.7

2.1

4.4

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.52

0.5

2.3

-1.5

3.9

5667.7

0.2

-2.4

-7.0

9.7

SENSEX

18774.2

0.3

-2.1

-6.4

2.7

DJIA

14799.4

0.3

-1.8

-3.3

17.7

S&P

1592.4

0.3

-2.1

-4.6

20.1

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated 1.7 percent in the last week on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX on account of Fed comments exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.3098 and closed at 1.3122 against the dollar on Friday. Favourable economic data from the region also couldnt provide relief to the fall in currency and ended on depreciation note for the week. European Current Account was at a surplus of 19.5 billion Euros in April as against a rise of surplus 25.9 billion a month ago.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices fell around 6.7 percent in the last week on account of strength in the DX. Further, comments from Fed exerted downside pressure on prices. Additionally, weak global markets coupled with fall in SPDR holdings which is at lowest level since February 2009 acted as a negative factor. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1268.89/oz and closed at $1296.75/oz in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 3.2 percent. The commodity closed at Rs.26943/10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 26706/10 gms in the last week. Depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined by 1.35 percent to 989.94 tonnes as on 21st June 2013 from previous level of 1,003.53 tonnes as on 14th June 2013.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1296.8 Prev. day 1.5 as on 21 June, 2013 WoW -6.7 MoM -5.2 YoY -17.5

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

26750.0

-0.9

-2.9

2.1

-10.7

1295.3

0.2

-6.9

-8.0

-17.3

$/oz

1291.6

0.4

-6.6

-6.3

-17.4

Rs /10 gms

26943.0

0.3

-3.1

3.8

-10.0

Source: Reuters

Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals group, Spot silver prices fell sharply around 9 percent in the last week. Further, strength in the DX along with weak global markets added downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched a weekly low of $19.35/oz and closed at $20.07/oz in last trade of prior week. On the domestic front, prices fell 5.2 percent and closed at Rs.41,497/kg pn Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.40,716/kg. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust rose around 0.75 percent to 10,073.98 tonnes on 21st June 2013 from 9,998.93 tonnes on 14th June 2013.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 20.1 42320.0 Prev day 2.7 -2.0

as on 21 June, 2013 WoW -8.9 -6.0 MoM -9.5 -5.5 YoY -25.4 -21.2

$/oz $/ oz

1987.0 20.0

-1.8 0.0

-8.4 -8.3

-12.2 -10.0

-25.9 -25.1

Rs / kg

41497.0

0.5

-5.2

-4.0

-21.5

Source: Reuters

Outlook
From the intra-day perspective, we expect precious metals to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, a stronger DX will act as a negative factor. Also cut in the growth outlook for Chinese economy will weigh downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will provide respite to fall in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 24, 2013 Support 1289/1281 26950/26800 19.75/19.50 41200/40700 Resistance 1298/1305 27150/27300 20.05/20.30 41900/42300

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 4.3 percent in the last week, taking cues from statement from Fed regarding curtailing its stimulus measures by end of this year. Strength in the DX coupled with unfavorable manufacturing data from China acted as a negative factor for prices. Further, rise in US crude oil inventories exerted downside pressure on prices. Crude oil prices touched a weekly low of $93.12/bbl and closed at $93.69/bbl in last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices fell marginally 0.5 percent as sharp depreciation in the Rupee restricted fall in prices. The commodity closed at Rs.5,614/bbl after touching a low of Rs.5,587/bbl in the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 104.1 93.7 Prev. day -0.2 -1.8 WoW -1.2 -4.3 as on 21 June, 2013 MoM 1.5 -0.5 YoY 16.4 19.8

$/bbl

100.9

-1.2

-4.7

-1.6

10.9

Rs/bbl

5614.0

-2.1

-0.5

6.0

22.0
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.807 227

(% change)

as on 21 June, 2013

Prev. day -1.7 -2.6

WoW 1.38 4.95

MoM -9.12 -2.45

YoY 47.79 54.74

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices gained around 2 percent on the back of forecast for warm weather which will increase the demand for air conditioners. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories coupled with strength in the DX. Gas prices touched a weekly high of $3.983/mmbtu and closed at $3.807/mmbtu in last trade of previous week. On the domestic front, prices rose around 5 percent and closed at Rs.227/mmbtu after touching a high of Rs.233.10/mmbtu in the last week. Depreciation in the Rupee supported further upside in prices on the MCX. Outlook The fundamentals for the crude oil prices still remains as a supportive factor on account of shutdown in three pipelines from Enbridge Oil Corporation which transports Canadian Oil to US along with unrest in Syria. However, during the day prices will trade lower as a result of cut in the growth outlook of China. Further, strength in the DX and choppy global markets will exert downside pressure on prices. On the MCX near month contract, sharp fall in oil prices will be cushioned as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 24, 2013 Support 92.90/92.20 5570/5530 Resistance 94.40/95.0 5660/5710

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on negative note in the last week on the back of weak global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, statement from Federal Reserve Chairman to reduce its stimulus spending by end of the year exerted downside pressure. Further, unfavourable manufacturing data from China acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp downside in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)
Source: Reuters

as on 21 June, 2013 WoW -3.5 MoM -12.8 YoY -6.7

Last 6844.0

Prev. day 1.0

$/tonne

Rs/kg

407.4

0.6

0.0

-2.3

-2.4

$/tonne

1795.0

-0.3

-3.6

-4.5

-3.9

Copper
Copper prices fell 3.5 percent in the previous week on the back of speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday coupled with strength in the DX. Further, rise in LME and Shanghai copper inventories acted as a negative factor. Additionally, weak global markets and decline in Chinas manufacturing data exerted downside pressure. The red metal touched a weekly low of $6692/tonne and closed at $6844/tonne in last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices traded on a flat note and closed at Rs. 407.35/kg, on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs 401.90/kg. Depreciation in the Rupee prevented fall in prices on the MCX. Copper Inventories Copper inventories over the week increased sharply by 7.5 percent on the LME to 664,850 tonnes and on the SHFE, inventories rose drastically 3.2 percent to 189,209 tonnes. Outlook Expected shutdown in production due to a planned nationwide strike in Chile on Wednesday, will lead to output stoppages at Codelco the worlds top producer of the red metal. Although supply-side worries from Chile should support upside in copper prices today, we expect this factor to be offset by the concerns over Chinese economic slowdown and overall risk aversion in the global markets that has led to strength in the Dollar Index. Prices on the LME are expected to trade with a negative bias, while a weaker Rupee will help cushion sharp downside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 24, 2013 Support 404/401 107.50/106.80 120.30/119.50 104.30/103.70 829/822 Resistance 410/413 109.20/110.0 122.0/122.80 105.50/106.20 842/850

Rs /kg

105.0

-0.7

-0.6

1.5

0.0

$/tonne

14086.0

2.8

-1.5

-7.2

-14.9

Rs /kg

837.6

2.1

1.3

-0.8

-11.3

$/tonne

2027.5

0.0

-4.1

-1.5

11.4

Rs /kg

120.7

-0.1

-0.7

5.6

16.4

$/tonne

1850.0

0.8

-0.6

-1.2

2.2

Rs /kg

108.4

0.4

2.5

4.9

4.8

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 21 June 664,850 5,433,950 185,412 1,071,425 199,025
st

20 June 643,125 5,433,975 185,514 1,074,525 203,125

th

Actual Change 21,725 -25 -102 -3,100 -4,100

(%) Change 3.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -2.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator German Ifo Business Climate Country Euro Time (IST) 1:30pm Actual Forecast Previous 105.7 Impact High

www.angelcommodities.com