Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 24, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 24, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis European equities down, Asian stocks also fell in todays trade. Chinas growth outlook cut to 7.4 percent in current year. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 105.9-mark in June. European equities are trading lower today after cut in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outlook of China by Goldman Sachs Group. The company has cut the growth outlook to 7.4 percent for 2013 from earlier projections of 7.8 percent. Asian markets ended on a negative note and US stock futures trading in the red. German Ifo Business Climate rose by 0.2 points to 105.9-mark in June as against a rise of 105.7-level in May. Spot gold prices declined around 1 percent today on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) exerted downside pressure on prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1277.84/oz and hovered around $1283.71/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, prices slipped around 0.9 percent but depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined around 1.8 percent today. Further, strength in the DX and weak global markets added downside pressure on prices. Apart from that, cut in the Chinas growth outlook also acted as a negative factor. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $19.52/oz and was trading at $19.72/oz till 4:30pm IST today. On the MCX near month contract, prices dropped 1.6 percent and depreciation in the Rupee prevented further fall in prices. The base metals group traded on a negative note today on account of rise in risk aversion in global markets, Further, strength in the DX and cut in Chinese economy growth outlook added downside pressure on prices. Additionally, mixed LME inventories acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee restricted fall in prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined around 2.7 percent today as a result of rise in LME copper inventories by 2 percent which stood at 678,225 tonnes. Strength in the DX, weak global markets and reduction in Chinese economy outlook acted as a negative factor. On the domestic front, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.1 percent taking cues from strength in the DX, cut in Chinas GDP along with weak global markets. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of shutdown of three pipelines by Enbridge Oil Corporation coupled with unrest in Syria. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in crude prices.
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low

Performance during the day

Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 24 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5638.05 18714.06 13417.54 1821.22 15133.47

5640.00 18714.06 13426.13 1821.22 15267.84

5566.25 18467.16 13026.23 1798.98 14901.46

5590.25 18540.89 13062.78 1799.01 14901.46

-1.37 -1.24 -1.26 -1.31 -1.55

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 24 June 13
Current % Chg from Prev day

82.71 1.3115 59.585

82.95 1.3123 59.825

82.685 1.3078 59.53

82.775 1.3106 59.75 as at 4.30 pm 24 June 13

0.31 -0.12 0.81

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil July 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1296.69 1297.30 27000.00 20.10 28.23 41334 93.85 100.91 5608 6833.00 406.35 1845.25 108.35 2026 120.70 14050 835.80 1796.25 104.65

1301.01 1297.30 27000.0 20.22 0.20055 41334 93.94 101.09 5624 6836.75 406.40 1845.25 108.40 2026 120.70 14050 835.80 1796.25 104.70

1277.84 1277.40 26650.0 19.52 0.20055 40570 92.67 99.82 5570 6613.00 394.60 1816.25 106.70 1990 118.60 13661 814.20 1772.25 103.60

1283.71 1287.00 26765.00 19.72 0.20055 40935 93.65 100.96 5613 6660.25 396.90 1820.00 106.90 1999 118.95 13766 819.40 1776.00 103.80

-1.01 -0.36 -0.94 -1.79 0.49 -1.57 -0.04 0.05 0.00 -2.68 -2.67 -1.62 -1.47 -1.42 -1.73 -2.27 -2.06 -1.06 -1.05

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | June 24, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Strength in the DX will act as a negative factor. Additionally, cut in the Chinas GDP outlook will exert downside pressure on prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 24 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude July13 Crude Oil July13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 26500 1256 40250 19.10 5925 5510 91.6 222 6580 393 105.5 117.4 102.4 804 Support 1 26650 1277 40640 19.5 5985 5560 92.75 224 6610 394.5 106.4 118.2 103.1 810 CMP 26766 1284.8 40930 19.74 6049 5617 93.67 226.8 6657 396.75 106.9 118.95 103.8 819.2 Resistance1 26880 1310 41300 20.36 6075 5650 94.3 228.5 6750 401.5 107.8 119.9 104.5 830 Resistance 2 27050 1323 41700 20.64 6130 5690 95.5 231 6850 405.5 108.5 121 105.1 839

Important Events for Today

Indicator German Ifo Business Climate Country Euro Time (IST) 1:30pm Actual 105.9 Forecast 106.0 Previous 105.7 Impact High