Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trade. German Ifo Business Climate rose by 0.2 points to 105.9-mark in June. Japans CSPI increased by 0.3 percent in the last month. Although Asian markets opened todays trade in the negative territory, markets are currently trading marginally higher as a weaker Yen coupled with slightly positive economic data release from Japan in the morning help provide some respite to sentiments. However, over the trade concerns with respect to economic growth could come to the forefront again and lead to risk aversion.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI 5590.3 18540.9 14659.56 1573.1 15112.4 1959.2 58497.8 13062.8 95.18 1276.80 19.49 6705.50 102.09 Prev. day -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -1.5 0.2 -1.3 1.6 -1.1 -2.3 -2.0 0.0

as on June 24, 2013 WoW -4.4 -4.1 -3.4 -4.0 -6.7 4.0 19.2 -0.1 -2.6 -6.6 -10.4 -5.4 2.8 MoM -6.3 -5.8 -4.9 -4.6 -12.3 -1.0 4.4 -5.2 0.2 -8.2 -12.1 -14.5 -2.8 YoY 8.2 1.4 16.0 17.8 15.2 2.0 8.7 49.6 19.3 -18.5 -26.9 -9.2 -0.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets which led to increase in demand for low yielding currency. Further, concerns about the Federal Reserves plan to reduce its stimulus spending supported an upside in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day high of 83.05 and closed at 82.63 on Monday.

Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 3.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of month end dollar demand from importers coupled with strength in the DX. Further, weak global and domestic markets also acted as a negative factor. Additionally, outflows of dollars from debt and equity markets exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Reserve Bank of India intervened and tried to provide respite to the fall in the Rupee, but the currency continued to depreciate. Indian Rupee touched an intra-day low of 59.825 and closed at 59.80 against dollar on Monday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6,776.0 crores th ($1,142.57 million) as on 24 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.76,429.10 crores ($14,210.40 million) till 24 June 2013. Outlook In continuation with governments efforts to curb demand and imports of gold, the All India Gems and Jewelry Trade Federation (AIGJTF) has urged jewelers to stop the sales of coins and bars and support the government's measures to curb the high Current Account Deficit (CAD). Although this factor should support gains in the Rupee on hopes of a reversal in the CAD, the weak market sentiments will not allow the currency change course so soon. Depreciation in the Rupee is expected in todays trade on the back of dollar demand coupled with strength in the Dollar Index. Weak markets will additionally lead to pressure on the Rupee.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.63 59.80 59.78 59.79 Prev. day 0.1 -0.9 0.75 0.75 WoW 2.4 -2.9 3.15 3.14

as on June 24, 2013 MoM -1.3 -7.4 7.32 7.32 YoY 4.0 -4.7 4.40 4.44

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for June 25, 2013 Support 59.60/59.45 Resistance 59.95/60.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trade on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intraday low of 1.3058 and closed at 1.3117 against the dollar on Monday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favourable economic data from Germany. German Ifo Business Climate rose by 0.2 points to 105.9-mark in June as against a rise of 105.7-level in May. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade lower on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will lead to pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 78.20/78.0 78.50/78.70 valid for June 25, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3117 78.36 78.3 78.3 Prev. day 0.0 -0.3 0.00 0.01

as on June 24, 2013 WoW -1.9 -1.4 1.36 1.35 MoM 1.4 -8.7 8.43 8.50 YoY 4.9 -13.7 9.16 9.26

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on the back of weak global markets. Additionally, strength in the DX also restricted positive movement in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5465 and closed at 1.5431 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will act as a negative factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 25, 2013 Support 91.55/91.40 Resistance 91.90/92.10

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5431 92.43 91.74 Prev. day 0.10 1.11 0.14

as on June 24, 2013

WoW -1.8 1.21 0.81

MoM 2.1 9.50 8.91

YoY -0.9 3.80 2.89

91.81

0.24

0.88

8.97

2.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 25, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 97.21 and closed at 97.72 against dollar on Monday. Japans Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) increased by 0.3 percent in May as against a decline of 0.3 percent a month ago. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from weak global markets. Further upside in the currency will be supported as a result of favorable corporate price index from Japan. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for June 25, 2013 Support 60.80/60.65 Resistance 61.10/61.30

JPY (% change)
Last 97.72 0.6127 60.96 60.94 Prev day -0.2 1.17 0.49 0.49

as on June 24, 2013 WoW 3.4 -0.28 -0.16 -0.22 MoM -4.2 11.20 10.80 10.79 YoY 22.7 -13.70 -14.38 -14.47

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 25, 2013

Indicator Inflation Report Hearings BBA Mortgage Approvals Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Country UK UK US US US US US Time (IST) 2:00pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 33.1K -0.1% 3.0% 10.6% 75.6 462K Previous 32.2K 1.5% 3.5% 10.9% 76.2 454K Impact High Medium High Medium Medium High High

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