Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | June 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | June 26, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 60.63-mark today. US crude oil inventories expected to fall 1.7 mn bbl Reuters. Spot Gold slips to a low of $1223/oz today. Indian Rupee depreciated more than 1.4 percent today, as concerns over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and rising economic risks led to pressure on the currency. A stronger Dollar Index acted as a negative factor for the Rupee and sharp weakness in the Rupee led to triggering of stop loss in major banks. The currency touched an all time low of 60.63-mark in todays trade. European equities are trading higher today on account of Peoples Bank of China ensured stability in money markets. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures trading in the green. Spot gold prices declined around 3.6 percent today on the back of strength in the DX. Further, decline in SPDR Gold holdings to 969.5 tonnes which is at the lowest level since February 2009 exerted downside pressure on the prices. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of $1223.54/oz and hovered around $1230.90/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, prices fell 2.2 percent but sharp depreciation in the Rupee cushioned fall in prices. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals group, Sport silver prices slipped around 4.7 percent today. Further, stronger DX added downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $18.39/oz and was trading at $18.66/oz till 4:30pm IST today. On the domestic front, prices dropped 3.3 percent, however, depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices. The base metals complex declined in todays trade on the back of strength in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from US in yesterdays trade confirmed the Fed plans for reducing its stimulus measures exerted downside pressure on prices. Additionally, mixed LME inventories acted as a negative factor for the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp fall in prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.4 percent today taking cues from less than expected decline in API crude oil inventories and are at the highest level in last 30 years. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. On the domestic bourses, sharp depreciation in the Rupee supported a positive movement in the prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 1.7 million barrels for the week ending on 21st June 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 26 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5627.95 18662.37 13152.75 1799.74 15083.81

5635.25 18690.50 13189.84 1799.74 15370.43

5579.35 18514.35 12826.51 1772.49 15008.71

5588.70 18552.12 12834.01 1783.45 15008.71

-0.36 -0.41 -1.04 0.16 1.94

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 26 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.92 1.308 59.60

83.13 1.3087 60.64

82.735 1.3012 59.60

83.10 1.3019 60.50

0.36 -0.50 1.41

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 26 June 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil July 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1276.99 1273.90 26535.00 19.58 28.23 40542 95.17 101.10 5682 6770.50 402.40 1841.50 107.85 2047 121.70 13900 823.50 1780.00 103.50

1277.79 1273.90 26535.0 19.63 0.1966 40542 95.37 101.67 5773 6831.50 407.70 1849.75 109.50 2053 122.80 13949 830.60 1785.00 105.20

1223.54 1232.30 25758.0 18.39 0.19595 38825 94.27 100.50 5653 6673.50 398.50 1828.50 107.40 2020 120.70 13658 817.70 1769.50 103.50

1230.90 1232.30 25985.00 18.66 0.19526 39328 94.93 101.24 5761 6728.50 405.90 1836.00 109.10 2025 122.30 13715 825.00 1776.75 105.00

-3.59 -3.33 -2.16 -4.70 0.17 -3.28 -0.41 -0.02 1.21 -0.58 0.61 -0.56 0.79 -1.22 0.16 -1.33 -0.19 -0.07 1.20

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | June 26, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, expected favorable economic data from US will confirm Feds measures over pulling back stimulus spending and will lead to strength in the DX. This factor will add downside pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like gold, silver, base metals and crude oil. In the Indian markets, sharp depreciation in the Rupee will cushion major fall in prices. In case of crude oil, sharp downside in prices will be cushioned as a result of expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 26 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude July13 Crude Oil July13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25650 1212 38500 18.18 6020 5690 93.7 219 6620 396 107.1 119.9 102.8 808 Support 1 25800 1219 38900 18.38 6065 5730 94.3 221.5 6670 401 108.3 121 103.9 817 CMP 25978 1227.4 39348 18.59 6159 5770 94.91 224.7 6721 406.55 109.2 122.4 105.1 827.1 Resistance1 26100 1233 39700 18.76 6185 5810 95.5 226 6830 409 110 123.1 105.8 839 Resistance 2 26240 1240 40150 19 6230 5850 96.3 228.5 6920 413 110.8 124.3 106.5 851

Important Events for Today

Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks GfK German Consumer Climate ECOFIN Meetings BOE Gov King Speaks BOE Financial Stability Report CBI Realized Sales Government Spending Review Final GDP q/q Crude Oil Inventories Country US Euro Euro UK UK UK UK US US Time (IST) 2:30am 11:30am Tentative 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 5:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm Actual 6.8 Forecast 6.6 1 2.4% -1.7M Previous 6.5 -11 2.4% 0.3M Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium