Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee touched an all-time low of 60.75 in yesterdays trade. Spot gold prices dropped 4 percent in yesterdays trading session. Spot silver prices fell 5.5 percent in yesterdays trade. US GDP grew at slow pace of 1.8 percent in Q1 of 2013. GfK German Consumer Climate rose by 0.3 points to 6.8-mark in June. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of slow growth in US GDP which led to speculation that Federal Reserve will not reduce its bond buying program. US Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at slow pace of 1.8 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against a rise of 2.4 percent in Q4 of 2012. Final GDP Price Index increased by 1.2 percent in first quarter of current year from rise of 1.1 percent in last quarter of 2012. The US Dollar Index (DX) was trading on a stronger side since beginning of the trade in yesterdays trading session. For the first-half the currency witnessed a positive movement on account of mixed global markets and touched a high of 83.28. Further, in the evening session, slow growth in the US GDP supported an upside in the currency and closed at 83.23 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.8 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of strong dollar demand from importers coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, capital outflows from equity and debt markets around $6 billion in this month exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak domestic markets acted as a negative factor. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tried to restrict the fall in the Rupee but the currency continued to depreciate. The central bank has around $291 billion as reserves which is only sufficient for seven months of imports. Indian Rupee touched an all-time low of 60.76 and closed at 60.72 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.9,622.50 crores ($1,619.21 million) as on 26th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,582.60 crores ($13,733.80 million) till 26 June 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 60.715 Prev day -1.8

as on 26 June, 2013 w-o-w -3.4 m-o-m -9.3 y-o-y -6.3

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3011

-0.6

-2.1

0.6

4.3

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.23

0.5

2.0

-0.6

4.7

5588.7

-0.4

-4.0

-8.1

9.1

SENSEX

18552.1

-0.4

-3.6

-7.4

1.4

DJIA

14910.1

1.0

-1.3

-2.7

19.0

S&P

1603.3

1.0

-1.6

-2.8

21.5

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.6 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.2983 and closed at 1.3011 against the dollar on Wednesday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of upbeat global markets coupled with favourable economic data from the country. GfK German Consumer Climate rose by 0.3 points to 6.8-mark in June as against a rise of 6.5-level in May.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices fell sharply 4 percent in yesterdays trading session on account of strength in the DX. Further, decline in the SPDR gold holdings which are at the lowest level since February 2009 acted as a negative factor for the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1221.80/oz and closed at $1225.20/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 1.6 percent. The commodity closed at Rs.26136/10 gms after touching a low of Rs. 25758/10 gms on Wednesday. Depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1225.2 Prev. day -4.0 as on 26 June, 2013 WoW -9.3 MoM -12.1 YoY -22.1

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

25990.0

-3.1

-6.8

-1.6

-13.1

1236.3

-3.3

-9.9

-11.1

-21.4

$/oz

1229.6

-3.5

-4.4

-11.7

-21.9

Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 5.5 percent in the yesterdays trade. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $18.39/oz and closed at $18.50/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices fell 2.7 percent and closed at Rs.39,568/kg after touching a low of Rs.38,825/kg on Wednesday. Depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX.

Rs /10 gms

26136.0

-1.6

-6.7

-1.2

-12.9

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 18.5 40660.0 Prev day -5.5 -3.9

as on 26 June, 2013 WoW -13.1 -9.6 MoM -18.2 -9.6 YoY -31.2 -24.3

Outlook
In todays trade, we expect precious metals to trade higher on account of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets and unfavourable economic data from US led to expectations that Federal Reserve will not pullback its stimulus measures will support an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of decline in SPDR gold holdings. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support upside in the prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 27, 2013 Support 1232/1222 25900/25700 18.70/18.40 39200/38700 Resistance 1251/1260 26300/26500 19.10/19.40

$/oz $/ oz

1867.0 18.6

-5.6 0.0

-13.6 -6.2

-16.6 -16.4

-30.4 -31.0

Rs / kg

39568.0

-2.7

-10.0

-9.3

-25.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

40000/40500

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased marginally by around 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade; taking cues from slow growth in the US GDP which lead to expectations that Fed will not curtail its stimulus spending plan. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $95.70/bbl and closed at $95.50/bbl in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of strength in the DX along with unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 1.8 percent as a result of sharp depreciation in the Rupee. The commodity closed at Rs.5,795/bbl after touching a high of Rs.5,814/bbl on Wednesday. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly by 0.01 million barrels to 394.10 million barrels for the week ending on 21st June 2013. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.7 million barrels to 225.40 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles shoot up by 1.6 million barrels to 123.20 million barrels for the last week.
Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.752 225.6 Prev. day 2.7 2.7 WoW -4.94 -3.42 MoM -11.15 -4.57 YoY 33.10 44.52

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 104.1 95.5 Prev. day -0.2 0.2 WoW -1.6 -2.8

as on 26 June, 2013 MoM 2.4 2.0 YoY 12.8 20.3

$/bbl

101.7

0.4

-4.2

-0.9

8.7

Rs/bbl

5795.0

1.8

0.3

11.1

26.0
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas

(% change)

as on 26 June, 2013

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 88 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 21st June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, slow growth in the US GDP increased the speculation that Fed will not cut its stimulus measures soon will support an upside in the prices. Additionally, expectations of favourable economic data from Euro Zone and US will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will provide further positive movement in oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 27, 2013 Support 95.10/94.30 5740/5690 Resistance 96.90/97.80 5850/5900
Source: Telequote

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) The base metals pack traded on negative note in the yesterdays trade on the back of slow growth in the US GDP coupled with stronger DX. Additionally, mixed LME inventories exerted downside pressure on prices However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of optimistic global markets coupled with expectations that Fed will not reduce its bond buying program after a slow growth in the US economy. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX.
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel (3 month) $/tonne 13630.0 -1.9 -4.3 -8.0 -16.3 Rs /kg 105.2 1.4 -0.4 4.1 0.6 $/tonne 1773.0 -0.3 -3.3 -3.6 -5.5 Rs/kg 408.8 1.3 0.1 0.4 -2.7 $/tonne Last 6735.0 Prev. day -0.5 as on 26 June, 2013 WoW -3.5 MoM -14.2 YoY -9.2

Copper
Copper prices fell 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX coupled with slow growth in the US GDP. The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6673.50/tonne and closed at $6735.0/tonne in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as result of upbeat global markets along with decline in LME copper inventories which stood at 671,100 tonnes. On the domestic front, prices rose 1.3 percent on account of sharp depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 408.80/kg, after touching an intra-day high of Rs.410.40/kg. Outlook In todays trading session, we expect base metals to trade higher on account of optimistic global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, speculation that Fed will not pullback its stimulus spending soon will support an upside in the prices. Additionally, expectations of favourable economic data from Euro Zone and US will act as a positive factor. Depreciation in the Rupee will provide further upside support to prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 27, 2013 Support 405/401 109.0/108.0 122.20/121.50 104.50/103.80 817/811 Resistance 412/416 110.80/111.80 124.20/125.20 106.0/106.80 833/840

MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)

Rs /kg

825.2

-0.2

-1.1

0.8

-10.9

$/tonne

2030.3

-1.0

-1.9

-2.1

15.2

Rs /kg

123.3

1.0

1.7

6.7

23.2

$/tonne

1840.5

-0.3

-1.2

-0.7

4.3

Rs /kg

109.8

1.4

2.1

7.8

8.8

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 26 June 671,100 5,448,000 187,956 1,062,950 194,600
th

25 June 674,850 5,445,275 186,084 1,068,400 194,200

th

Actual Change -3,750 2,725 1,872 -5,450 400

(%) Change -0.6 0.1 1.0 -0.5 0.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator German Unemployment Change M3 Money Supply y/y Current Account Final GDP q/q Italian 10-y Bond Auction EU Economic Summit Unemployment Claims Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Pending Home Sales m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks FOMC Member Powell Speaks Country Euro Euro UK UK Euro Euro US US US US US US Time (IST) 1:25pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm Tentative Day 1 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm Actual Forecast 7K 2.9% -11.9B 0.3% 347K 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% Previous 21K 3.2% -14.0B 0.3% 354K 0.0% -0.2% 0.3% Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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